| Afreximbank Barbados Country Brief spotlights market’s economic resilience and reform-driven path for growth |
| Growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, supported by resilient tourism inflows, a strong pipeline of investment projects and targeted government support for households and businesses CAIRO, Oct. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire-HISPANIC PR WIRE/ — African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has released its latest Barbados Country brief, offering a comprehensive and timely analysis of the island nation’s macroeconomic outlook. The brief explores key regional and international trade dynamics, financial sector developments and debt sustainability trends. The brief highlights that Barbados has exhibited resilient growth following the Covid-19 pandemic, with GDP growth averaging 5.6% between 2021 and 2026, driven by a robust resurgence in tourism. Growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, supported by resilient tourism inflows, a strong pipeline of investment projects and targeted government support for households and businesses. Central to this transformation is Barbados’ IMF-backed Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme. The brief notes that the original BERT programme concluded successfully in 2025, with the IMF Executive Board approving a new 36-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement of USD257 million in June 2026 to support the next phase of structural reform. This reflects the international community’s confidence in Barbados’ policy track record and the market’s commitment to building a resilient and diversified economy. This brief edition also explores the high-income island nation’s impressive fiscal consolidation. Public debt has declined from 104.1% of GDP at end-FY2023/24 to 96% of GDP at end-March 2026, backed by a primary fiscal surplus of 4.2% of GDP in FY2025/26. The government’s medium-term framework targets sustained primary surpluses of 3.5% of GDP, placing public debt on a firm trajectory towards the 60% of GDP anchor by FY2035/36. The IMF assesses the overall risk of sovereign stress as moderate, reflecting Barbados’ strong and consistent policy track record. On trade, the brief points to a steadily strengthening external position. Total goods and services trade grew from USD4.1 billion in 2018 to USD5.5 billion in 2024, with further expansion to USD6.3 billion projected in 2026. Barbados’ services balance remains a key pillar of strength, underpinned by tourism inflows that grew 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026, bolstered by a 30% year-on-year jump in cruise ship arrivals. The brief further highlights developments within Barbados’ deep and diversified financial sector. In June 2026, the Central Bank of Barbados launched BiMPay, a national instant payment system enabling round-the-clock settlements and broadening financial inclusion. This represents the latest in a series of measures to strengthen the efficiency and resilience of the country’s financial infrastructure. Commenting on the brief, Dr Yemi Kale, Afreximbank’s Group Chief Economist and Managing Director, Research and Trade Intelligence, noted: “The findings highlight Barbados as a dynamic, reform-driven economy whose resilient fundamentals, stable governance and deepening regional ties position it as an increasingly compelling partner for trade finance and development cooperation across the Caribbean.” |
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