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Attached are updated charts for the week ending 28th January.  We saw a record number of daily cases (923) on 25th January.  This was followed over the last 3 days with daily cases in the 700’s.  The reproductive R0 numbers increased slowly to just 1.18; Deaths and Daily Official isolations also remained at relatively low levels while Home isolations rose precipitately. If these dynamics are maintained there will be no need to panic and fear that the dread worse case prediction of 3,500 peak cases per day is heading our way.  The data also indicates that the Covid-19 team and the Barbados populace in general are continuing to do a good job – Source: Lyall Small


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151 responses to “BU Covid Dash – No Need for Panic”


  1. In other words, our visitors who test positive for COVID are not “officially” isolated.

    We have less than 200 in official isolation and 8,892 total isolations according to Johns Hopkins data.

    There are ZERO critical cases.

    Here’s what happened with Dominica after first the flood with Elsa in July and then the reopening of their borders in August.

    https://imgur.com/NrJjbY3

    Dominica reopened its borders in August 2020.

    Two different populations are being tested, like Barbados, like Bali with 80% imported cases, like several other tourist destinations

    https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2020/08/dominica-borders-to-reopen-to-international-travelers-from-august-7-update-1?origin=fr_riskalert


  2. Australia unless there is no ohmigod must be feeling like fools.

    There is no vaccination for ohmigod but they refused to admit my boy Novax for not being vaccinated.

    Complete idiots.


  3. Cricket on its own with its crowds is not the problem nor is the gathering of large numbers at elections.

    It’s been proven in the US that 100K can congregate at Football without a problem.

    Our COVID number is primarily due to the visitor population.

    We are sampling overseas populations where COVID is a problem.

    So we get 8,892 peeps in isolation, ZERO critical cases and less than 200 in official isolation.

    As pointed out last week or before, the Blackman Gollop School is shut down tight, no activity.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/clay-travis-fauci-wrong-prediction-college-football-coronavirus

    The moral of the story is that airborne transmission is minimal when compared with water borne transmission.


  4. Cricket’s relation to our COVID numbers is that it attracts alot of Brits from a population in which COVID is rampant.

    When they are tested to return to the UK, many are found with COVID but are not put into official isolation.

    They are probably either asymptomatic or just have a sniffle.


  5. Bostic told his listening audience
    No.need to worry
    He is Covid negative
    Awaiting the others whose names are on the list to debunked the social.media story


  6. @ Lyall Small

    FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

    The steep rise from 18 Dec (less than 100) – 27 Jan (almost 800) was deemed an anomaly
    after practically eliminating cases they came back again with a vengeance

    Some said it was tourists
    I threw into the mix biowarfare hypothesis chestnut
    but it can be learning experience to study the cause for causal inference

    Your thoughts would be appreciated and stimulating (john/Gp less so)

  7. Disgusting Lies & Propaganda TV Avatar
    Disgusting Lies & Propaganda TV

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/lung-tissue-study-sheds-light-fast-omicron-spread
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59769967

    Prevailing info on Omicron states that it multiplies 70 times faster in the upper airways over the Delta strain. That is a mind boggling rate especially since the Delta variant was very contagious itself. However it is 10 times less able to penetrate deep lung tissue. In simple terms, to the individual, Omicron is a less severe form of COVID. Cumulatively, what this translates to :-

    1) the positive cases will spike fairly rapidly. Having the protentional to produce up to 70 times the virions means that positive cases are highly contagious in a shorter time span. Meaning that the secondary disease prevention measure will continue to be important

    2) In terms of pressure on the health system it may be higher than than Delta due to the sheer number of people needing hospitalization in a shorter time. To the individual. however, there is a significantly less chance of needing long hospitals stays and having severe side effects. over of a virus that had a low fatality rate in the first place

    3) The fatality rate should drop even lower with the Omicron variant and we know that COVID-19 has a low death rate

    In short I continue to believe that mankind is heading to the same point with COVID-19 that was reached with influenza and the common cold. With influenza even though there are vaccines the there is strong dependence on natural immunity. That is because

    1) With most cases the immune system is able to treat the virus before it becomes fatale or even cause severe long lasting effects

    2) the flu mutates to the extent that flu shots are needed yearly. The upside of a rapidly spreading less severe form of COVID-19 means that textbook herd immunity can be reached at a rate probably faster than be achieved with vaccine immunity. In short, added to the above point, vaccine immunity IN MOST SITUATIONS will be unnecessary and impractical.

    .


  8. Govt is seeking more place for isolation centres
    The latest being 36, residents who took refuge at the labour college at Mangrove
    Govt needs that space to be used as a Covid isolation centre


  9. This article explains why the schools are not being used as isolation centres.

    FAMILIES CRY OUT

    By Maria Bradshaw mariabradshaw@nationnews.com
    Government is seeking to set up a COVID facility at the Barbados Workers’ Union (BWU) Labour College at Mangrove, St Philip, and the 36 families who are presently being sheltered there have been given three days to move into other Governmentappointed shelters.
    Yesterday, Dr Corey Forde, head of isolation facilities, and a team toured the college to look at its suitability.
    However, Forde told the Saturday Sun during an interview at Mangrove that the facility was among a number of places which they were examining.
    “One of the things we have done as a national team, as we prepare, is to scout and look for areas that if you got into trouble that you potentially can increase your resources and have them be put in place. We have been working across the country to find different areas outside of schools that we could use for isolation purposes. There is really no big story about this – this is what we do on a daily basis. This is not the only place we have been to,” he said.
    However, upset tenants at the Labour College, who were placed there after their homes were destroyed by Hurricane Elsa six months ago, said they were left in shock after a team of officials held a meeting with them at 6 p.m. on Thursday and informed them that they were being relocated to other shelters because the location had been earmarked as an isolation facility.
    The team included top officials from the Ministry of People Empowerment and Serena Browne, co-ordinator of the shelter.
    “None of us said anything because it was a done deal. It was not up for discussion,” said an upset tenant.
    Told to pack
    “We were told to pack our bags because some of us will have to leave tomorrow and the remainder would have to be out by Sunday and we have to get our own transportation to move. They said Government will only pay the rent while we would be given food vouchers.”
    That tenant pointed out that, based on interviews conducted by social workers, some of them were assigned to shelters at Codrington College, St John, Sterling Children’s Home and the Nazarene Church at Woodbourne, St Philip, as well as apartments in St James, Black Rock and other areas.
    Another resident explained that what had some of them concerned was that they were actually relocated from apartments and hotels which Government was renting for them to the Labour College because Government could no longer afford to pay the rent.
    Fifty-year-old Shawn Perry was in tears after she was informed that she was going to St James.
    “I tell them I can’t go all out there,” Perry cried, pointing out that she usually cared for her elderly parents who lived in St Philip and that she was unemployed.
    “They told me to talk to the social workers but the social workers are saying there is nothing they can do,” she sobbed, adding she would not have bus fare to travel to and fro.
    A 44-year-old father of four pointed out that the move was not ideal for his family of six since they were going from a two-bedroom situation to a one-bedroom house at Sterling.
    “I chose to go there because they wanted to put us at the Nazarene Church and I knew it would not be suitable for my family,” he said.
    He also expressed concern about his children ages 19, 13, nine and two and how the dislocation would affect them mentally.
    While it would be the fourth move for 58-year-old Dalton Coppin, who lost his St Philip home, he said he didn’t mind at all.
    “I was staying at Divi Hotel, Melrose Apartments and here at the Labour College, so it would be my fourth move but I am grateful and thankful,” he said smiling.
    Other residents reported they were emotional over the news of being separated since they had all begun to bond given their circumstances.
    “We have been through a lot on this compound. There was a fire that broke out in one of the rooms; two men stabbed each other and were expelled and a two-month-old baby died and it was kept hush-hush. We have been through a series of things but we have all come together and bonded and now after an election and after all of these residents left the compound to go and elect a minister that they thought would stand up for them, we are being told that we can no longer be here.”

    Source: Nation


  10. Disgusting Lies & Propaganda TVJanuary 29, 2022 7:28 AM

    Excellent comments!


  11. Unable to contribute, but the picture of a West Indian batsman almost drove me to tears. In no other field is our failure as a region so demonstrable. 🙂


  12. Think that we as a nation need to focus more on the positivity rate and less on the number of positive cases .


  13. Is the positivity rate rising, falling or constant ? These are true indicators of where we are going In the pandemic


  14. 555dubstreetJanuary 29, 2022 7:27 AM
    You said:
    The steep rise from 18 Dec (less than 100) – 27 Jan (almost 800) was deemed an anomaly after practically eliminating cases they came back again with a vengeance. Some said it was tourists.
    I threw into the mix biowarfare hypothesis chestnut, but it can be learning experience to study the cause for causal inference. The steep rise from 18 Dec (less than 100) – 27 Jan (almost 800) was deemed an anomaly after practically eliminating cases they came back again with a vengeance. Your thoughts would be appreciated ……

    My thoughts fwiw ;
    I think that the steep rise is almost entirely due to the Omicron variant. I think It came in here earlier than is currently appreciated. A look at the charts shows that the then existing Delta wave was almost on its last legs around 18th December and that the dynamics of the epidemic then changed drastically to those of the new variant, Omicron. I think that the Omicron variant started its rapid ascendancy over the Delta variant soon after 18th December. The shape of the Reproductive rate R0 chart for the new wave suggests that it quickly mopped up the remaining Delta variant and then proceeded to a phase of low R0’s but also facilitated the raising of the acquired immunity in the population. The Government’s contact tracing and isolation measures, as well as the standard sanitary measures, albiet with a static to declining vaccination rate, assisted in reducing cases from their potentially higher levels to manageable ones.

    The several functions and ceremonial pageantry associated with the short period leading up to Rebublic Day, tourist arrivals, cricket, etc., were not reflected in the charts. Neither were there any spikes that could be associated with the early electioneering except arguably for the hugh spike of January 25th. This spike was 7 days after the 18th January and might be considered as occurring 1 Covid generation after the initial infections. But R0 levels were not significantly affected up to today’s results. I think that the charts might also be indicating that immunity levels here might be much higher than expected and that we might even be at a stage where population immunity could result in the Covid-19 epidemic here developing into an endemic stage in a relatively short time.

    I think that Government should do a number of large scale specific testing operations to quantify variant spread, immunity levels, localities of outbreaks, etc., as soon as possible to pin down what essentially drives our Covid waves here. It should then use those data to fine tune and improve our Data collection methodologies as well as our ability to take any proactive actions re. combating any new variants that might be indicated.


  15. Hopefully the new Minister of Health will confirm how Omicron is impacting hospital care and particularly our children in this evening’s press conference.


  16. SpikesJanuary 29, 2022 2:17 PM
    You said above: “Is the positivity rate rising, falling or constant ? These are true indicators of where we are going In the pandemic”

    The positivity rates are rising gradually. It now stands at over 28%. Will write a more detailed account soon.


  17. The Hoteliers are having record occupancy levels.

    So where you think “HOME” is for a visitor who tests positive?


  18. DavidJanuary 29, 2022 3:29 PM

    Hopefully the new Minister of Health will confirm how Omicron is impacting hospital care and particularly our children in this evening’s press conference.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    According to Johns Hopkins data there are ZERO serious or critical cases in Barbados.

    I kid you not.

    The majority of the COVID cases are imported and most of these have had COVID already or are vaccinated so we get no problems with them!!!

    Hospital is doing just fine!!

    Positivity is meaningless.

    https://imgur.com/Pe1OLBS


  19. 630 TESTED POSITIVE on Friday, January 28.

    There were 152 persons in isolation facilities and 9,371 in home isolation.

    There were 152 persons TESTED POSITIVE and are in isolation facilities. 9,371 TESTED POSITIVE and are in home isolation.


  20. Barbados may need more treatment facilities, more doctors, more nurses and more ambulance buses.

    buh doan mine me.I am in isolation from -22 C weatherin Canada.


  21. Listening to Dr.Cave the QEH continues to be pressured. Bare in mind resources at Harrison’s Point and other isolation centers are drawn from QEH.


  22. @David,

    What is the plan if cases keep rising ?


  23. @Hants

    The CMO indicated additional isolation centers will be opened in anticipation.


  24. @ David,

    I am hoping for the best outcomes but seems they wii need more medics to work at the additional Isolation centers.


  25. I epect some of the Barmy Army will be sampling some of the Bajan delights after they leave Kensington Oval. lol

    Mount gay, Banks ……


  26. @Hants

    The practice has been for medical personnel to rotate through centres.


  27. @Hants

    Yes, they have the place confuse.


  28. ” “We have outbreaks in several of our institutions – within the Geriatric Hospital, within the Psychiatric Hospital, we have two nursing homes, and one children’s home, and the spread of infection in these [areas] is testimony to the level of infection within our communities,” he explained.”
    “Health officials are also finalizing plans to introduce satellite locations for the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in order to reduce the amount of traffic and stress the site is currently under.”

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/29/health-ministry-to-step-up-fight-against-covid-19/


  29. Lyallsmall
    Just to remind you that the positivity rate for the last seven days has fluctuated between a high of 28.53 on Sunday and a low of 24.64 . Could we be leveling out ? Numbers not withstanding


  30. Bajans complaining.lol


  31. Spikes;

    The positivity percentages for the last 7 days were:
    date Tests +ve Cases % positivity
    23/01/2022 2194 626 28.53
    24/01/2022 2017 497 24.64
    25/01/2022 3428 923 26.93
    26/01/2022 2880 723 25.10
    27/01/2022 2752 767 27.87
    28/01/2022 2708 729 26.92
    29/01/2022 2530 630 24.90

    The positivity percentage target is <= 5.00%. We have not seen such a low level of positivity here since the 20th December 2021 when there were 24 positive cases recorded.

    The positivity percentage, or more accurately, the test positivity percentage is a statistic derived from testing people who, for one reason or another, turn up at a testing facility in any particular day. It is not a random test and therefore cannot give an accurate estimate of the population incidence of the virus. But it does indicate that the overall incidence of the disease is probably much higher than indicated in the number it returns.

    The current positivity numbers are now very high but have been showing a recent decreasing trend and if that continues it might be heralding a downturn in Omicron incidence, possibly within the next 2 months or so.


  32. HantsJanuary 29, 2022 6:52 PM

    ” “We have outbreaks in several of our institutions – within the Geriatric Hospital, within the Psychiatric Hospital, we have two nursing homes, and one children’s home, and the spread of infection in these [areas] is testimony to the level of infection within our communities,” he explained.”
    “Health officials are also finalizing plans to introduce satellite locations for the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in order to reduce the amount of traffic and stress the site is currently under.”

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/29/health-ministry-to-step-up-fight-against-covid-19/

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    So why does the Johns Hopkins data indicate ZERO serious/Critical?

    The Geriatric and Psychiatric have already been hit so many will have natural immunity.

    The ohmigod variant doesn’t seem to be too serious.

    Guess the Visitors will head straight to QEH.

    That might explain the traffic.

    The only thing we don’t need now are floods.

    Floods will turn most hotels packed to gills with visitors into hospital wards.


  33. Lyall

    We will match the UK positivity rate pretty closely because the majority of the tests being done is on visitors returning home and most come from the UK.

    We really need to see the imported cases.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-covid-positivity


  34. HantsJanuary 29, 2022 5:53 PM

    I epect some of the Barmy Army will be sampling some of the Bajan delights after they leave Kensington Oval. lol

    Mount gay, Banks ……

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    My relation who contradicts me all the time about my theory on visitor cases tells me nuff Bajan young people got it.

    But I try my best to explain the numbers are on a different scale when compared with our visitors.

    The young people I can understand because the visitors are not going to sit down quiet and miss out on any night life.


  35. Lyallsmall :
    Thanks for your input , that is the kind of enlightened discussion that we should be having . Will engage you at a later date


  36. This quote from the CMO is to dispel some of the misinformation posted here:

    He noted that the virus was heavily impacting the nation’s health institutions. He added it was critical that more steps be taken to ensure the Queen Elizabeth Hospital was not overwhelmed, so it could get on with the day-to-day care of those with non-COVID-19 ailments.


  37. OMICRON ‘LETDOWN’

    Private sector head says authorities failed to properly prepare for spike

    By Colville Mounsey colvillemounsey@nationnews.com
    Chairman of the Barbados Private Sector Association, Trisha Tannis, says she is disappointed at a failure by authorities to properly prepare for the most recent spike in COVID-19 cases, despite warnings that the Omicron variant was likely to spread at exponential levels.
    Making reference to the backlog of people waiting to receive official release from home isolation, she told the Sunday Sun the worst fears of the business community were being realised as it related to loss of production.
    However, Home Isolation manager Dr Adanna Grandison said plans were in the pipeline to have the issuance of clearance certificates automated. She added that pending the requisite approvals, they are hoping to bring that system on stream in a week or two.
    “We are hoping to automate the system so that persons would not have to wait as long for a physical certificate. We are hoping to have it automatically generated with the assistance of technology. I am hoping that it comes on stream in a week or so, that is my hope, but I do not have a definite time frame. We have had quite a few meetings on the issue recently,” she said.
    Tannis stressed that apart from absenteeism, with more than 9 000 people in home isolation, the business sector was also hamstrung by a number of closures in the public service preventing them from accessing critical services.
    “This is a huge concern for us. We simply cannot continue to manage the virus in this way that we are putting in mechanisms that we are not resourcing adequately. If there is one failure in this is the constant lack of assessing and assigning resources needed for the protocols that are required. One would have thought that when the models were being created that showed a bestcase scenario of 1 200 per day at peak and a worst-case of 3 500 per day at peak, we would have anticipated the problem that we are now having,” she said.
    “It is not good enough that we are caught now in this situation where we are being overwhelmed by the number of persons needing certification to leave home isolation. There are some territories, our neighbours, that have been telling persons not to expect a certificate, we can’t give it to you.
    You have to officially tell persons what to do, if it is after ten days, they can leave home isolation and return to work. We in the business sector need to be made aware of what the requirements are before we let persons back into the business.”
    Last week, COVID-19 Public Advisor David Ellis said that after ten days people were no longer infectious and could leave isolation.
    “The relevant section dealing with certificates to release people from isolation is under immense pressure and therefore we are getting a number of calls, some from people who are quite irate, about the fact they are not getting processed at the kind of speed they desire. A lot of this has to do with the fact that many of these people have been in isolation for more than the stipulated ten days and now have to go back to work and need to get these certificates to prove to their employers they are fit for work again,” he said then.
    However, concurring with Tannis, president of the Human Resources Management Association of Barbados, Brittany Brathwaite, said word of mouth simply would not do as there were legal ramifications to consider. She suggested an official amendment to the rules governing home isolation is required to ensure all involved are on solid legal footing.
    “This is exactly why the employers are making the demand, but as we heard from David Ellis, the shedding period would be over and persons would be free to go out. So there is no reason why we should not have this backed up by the legal changes. However, if that is not forthcoming, as a business community it is going to be hard for us to sit and wait, and that is why some businesses are requiring a second test in order for those persons to return to work,” said Brathwaite.
    According to the regulations, a person can leave home isolation only when directed by the Chief Medical Officer.

    Source: Nation


  38. Ohmigod is not the problem!!

    It is the influx of visitors with it.

    The Private Sector should be glad the GOB did not follow the advice of BAMP and close the borders.

    All the same, so should the GOB be glad.

    In the meantime, we should be getting more arrivals as the cold and blizzard grips the North East.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/after-the-blizzard-the-big-chill-as-east-coast-digs-out/ar-AAThZ01?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069


  39. DavidJanuary 30, 2022 5:25 AM

    This quote from the CMO is to dispel some of the misinformation posted here:

    He noted that the virus was heavily impacting the nation’s health institutions. He added it was critical that more steps be taken to ensure the Queen Elizabeth Hospital was not overwhelmed, so it could get on with the day-to-day care of those with non-COVID-19 ailments.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Meanwhile the number of serious/critical patients remains ZERO in the Johns Hopkins Data posted here (above).

    CMO could have done a better job by simply letting the nation know just how many of our visitors have COVID.

    We remain lost in wonder at the dichotomy.

    I suspect the issue is having to give up the schools for cleaning and reopening and the problems at Mangrove which sounds like a positive development.


  40. Lyallsmall
    With the increased availability of test kits, the persons mostly seeking official tests will be those who have no other choice (travelers / those in isolation etc) and those whose private tests are positive and who choose be go to be treated.
    The hypokondriacs who previously went every week and kept the positivity levels low, now frequent Massey instead.
    That statistical measure is about as useful as is the whole Covid-19 ‘exercise in idiocy’


  41. @ Disgusting Lies & Propaganda TV January 29, 2022 7:28 AM

    I agree with you that the Omnicron variation is the endgame.

    Then why do we hold on to corona tests on entry at all? Because of the crazy BAMP president?


  42. @ Bush Tea January 30, 2022 7:56 AM

    Since the Omnicron variant is just a sniffle for the fully vaccinated, we should stop testing altogether.

    No tests, no problems with red lights abroad, meaning more tourists.

    A prostitute doesn’t test herself for HIV every week either. Why then should we do anything different with economic prostitution?


  43. David; Bush Tea was by far the most perceptive and technically endowed poster that BU ever had. His moniker should be protected from iconoclasts.


  44. @Lyall

    He is an intelligent man. Too wise for this epoch.


  45. My buddy Bushie has his blind spots just as ALL HUMAN BEINGS DO.

    FOR INSTANCE, he is very mysogynistic.

    “Too many women in leadership positions” is his cry.

    And once he had the gall to wonder if I was indeed a woman because he found my arguments to be logical!

    I guess now he believes I am female because I disagree with his God-in-the-hurricane GP2 insurance policy Old Testament crap.


  46. Too wise for this epoch???

    Really??????

    Do you two not have a problem with misogyny in this EPOCH?????

    Are Cuhdear Bajan and Donna the only ones who have a problem with women being regarded in this backward manner in this EPOCH??????

    I wonder how come this glaring flaw in reasoning and perception does not disqualify him from being thought of as “too wise for this epoch”.


  47. @Donna

    You knowledge of Bush Tea personal characteristics is based on what he wants you to know. You are intelligent enough to run with it.

  48. African Online Publishing Copyright ⓒ 2021. All Rights Reserved Avatar
    African Online Publishing Copyright ⓒ 2021. All Rights Reserved

    The infection rate is bad indeed, but ignorance can end up killing people..

    a little information sharing goes a long way in helping people understand what’s going on around them..

    had family members fully vaccinated whose antibody levels doubled after both shots, then DOUBLED AGAIN after they got infected with amicron recently, so they no longer need a booster shot…these are the ones who show no symptoms…

    people need to stop kicking out their relatives because they are infected with what is more or less the common cold dependant on viral load….

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