Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first six months of 2020 and gives his outlook for the remainder of the year.
Source: Central Bank of Barbados
Central Bank of Barbados Review of the Economy: January – June 2020
244 responses to “Central Bank of Barbados Review of the Economy: January – June 2020”
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@ John A
We go round in circles. I have said on numerous occasions that our newspapers can improve their financial coverage in either of two ways: by employing a young economics graduate and sending him/her for training as a journalist; or, sending an experience reporter to learn economics and finance.
Marva Cossy was the last person at the Nation who understood trade and finance. I understand she is now teaching at Cave Hill. Another young lady I met who once worked at the Advocate came to London to do a PhD; I have not heard anything about her for years.
There is also the attitude of Barbadians. Some time ago a young woman came to London to do an MA in International journalism at City University. I met her while taking part in a discussion at the high commission.
I invited her to do some work experience at Financial Times Business, but she refused. She thought it was an insult. On another occasion a Jamaican publisher, sadly now dead, came to have a working breakfast with me and I pitched the idea of a Caribbean-wide English language weekly financial paper, he went totally silent. It is still a very good idea.
But, you can take a horse to a pond. But the people get what they are happy with. You only have to read BU to see whatever the subject the outcome is always a political discussion. Just read the mumbo jumbo about fiscal space.
Cheap laughs and verbal heckling goes down well on BU. It hides an enormous amount of ignorance and a reluctance to learn. Just read the nonsense many of the economic spokespeople the media run to say. -
@John A
This may be so but like Vincent stated the primary data was shared in the central bank report.
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@Hal Austin August 7, 2020 1:54 PM “There is also the attitude of Barbadians. Some time ago a young woman came to London to do an MA in International journalism at City University. I met her while taking part in a discussion at the high commission. I invited her to do some work experience at Financial Times Business, but she refused. She thought it was an insult.”
I am not sure why you thought, that she thought that it was an insult. Did she ell you that she was insulted? If not how do you know that she thought it insulting?
Would the offer of work experience at the Financial Times would have been a paid offer or an unpaid offer?
if an unpaid offer, maybe she knew that she could not afford to live in a city as expensive as London if she had little or no money. Perhaps her funding for the MA in international journalism had already run out?
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@Dullard August 7, 2020 8:06 AM “How much has the economy shrunk in 2020?”
The truth is that we cannot know how much the economy has shrunk in 2020, and we cannot know until after December 31, 2020.
We ALL know that the April 1, to June 30 has been has been very, very bad. Even an innumerate person like me can see that.
We expect that the six months from July 1 to December 31 will also be very bad, perhaps very, very bad.
But the truth is we can’t know until after the fact.
Just as i cannot know what will happen at 4:00 p.m. today
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@Hal
I am a believer in the fact that we get the press we accept. If we didnt buy their papers and demanded better, we would then get better. What i am quickly coming to conclude is the average Bajan has no interest in either The Central Bank Report or the Auditor General’s report. Unless someone non bias breaks these down into 2 line bullet points I believe few stop to read either publication.
It is a sad reflection on our complacency in governance, but what else can one do to enlighten and educate.
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@David
Yes and I agree with Vincent in that the data was there, what i said to Hal above though is the issue. Its the format and language that many dont understand and hence they ignore it.
For example years back when I was more involved in business, the accounting company that I used would hold a breakfast seminar after every budget and break down 4 hours of a budget, into 10 pages of highlights. That type of thing is what is lacking for the general public. You need UWI or some non bias institution to do this for the public, so that they can understand the seriousness of our situation.
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@peterlawrencethompson August 7, 2020 8:03 AM “The omission of those four words, and the fact that no reporter could tell that it was an error, makes me weep for the education system in Barbados.”
Save your tears Peter.
Maybe it is not the educational system?
Maybe it is the capitalist who own the media?
Ask yourself why the brightest and the best are not in the media.
Would you be willing to work for less that $3,000 per month when your peers who like you had graduated from Harrison College, Queen’s College, UWI, and elite universities in North America and Europe are earning $8,000+ per month while the capitalist who own the media expect you to work for $3,000 or less?
When the capitalists who own the media are willing to pay excellent people what they are worth, then we will get excellent people.
With sincere apologies to those who toil in the media, the Americans have a saying “if you pay peanuts expect to get monkeys”
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@John A
I do not like the obsession with comparing, the what about those over there thesis, but it is important that there is a top level inquiry going on in the UK about the Future of Journalism, ranging from aspiring reporters to ownership to technology to content.
It is the difference between a society that takes these things seriously and one that talks a lot. I will give an example, as these best illustrate the point.
Not very long ago I was at Seawell and after going through the the check in I went to the book shop in the departure lounge.. The international edition of the Economist carries recommended sales prices on the cover and I thought I would get a copy to read on the flight.
To my shock, the actual price was abut three times the recommended price. I raised this with the brown-skinned guy behind the counter and he exploded. Nobody can tell him how much to charge, he spewed out. I left him with his magazine, read my book and bought a copy of the magazine when I arrived in London.
Another point is this: why do we charge VAT on books? -
Read page 1 of the pdf.
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@Hal Austin August 7, 2020 2:37 PM “Not very long ago I was at Seawell and after going through the the check in I went to the book shop in the departure lounge.. The international edition of the Economist carries recommended sales prices on the cover and I thought I would get a copy to read on the flight. To my shock, the actual price was abut three times the recommended price. I raised this with the brown-skinned guy behind the counter and he exploded. Nobody can tell him how much to charge, he spewed out.”
Of course sensible people understand that a recommendation is exactly that, a recommendation, NOT a command. The Economist cannot know the expenses of every retailer of their magazine, so they cannot command that it be sold for a certain price. So it is up to cheapskate consumers to negotiate a lower price, or take it or leave it if the retailers price is too rich for them.
And did the young man really “explode”, did he really “spew” or is hyperbole instead of truth being written.
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I don’t want to belabor this but that annualised figures argument does not wash.
If we assume annualised figures (imputing what the Guv has not said) then the argument is that economy fell c. 6% in Q2 vs Q1. I do not believe that.
In Q2 the US GDP contracted c. 9% on the previous quarter , the UK c. 20% and the Eurozone c. 12%. These are all more robust and diversified economies.In Q2 tourism was shut down and there was mass unemployment and very little economic activity.
I think my original point stands, . The economy has contracted c. 30% since the start of the year.
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isnt the Barbados quarter results in comparson to the year befor instead of the quarter before?
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yesi think thats it. Bim usually report a bit different from the USA. so manybe that when the 15% for the year comes from.
Normally he just used to give quarter by quarter compared to the year before.
he never gave the total at 6monts or 9months
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A former regular on BU years ago when he was in opposition and well liked by BU regulars is making promises. Good luck Willie D.
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/08/07/options-for-housing-coming-duguid/ -
The NIS. The big unknown. Since the chair is now a Minister, has he stepped down? Who has replaced him? As economic contraction continues, and it will, the NIS looms larger and larger. The silence on this entity is now beyond deafening.
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@ peterlawrencethompson August 7, 2020 9:00 AM
Why do you always have to destroy the illusion of a perfect world when the head of the central bank once again tries to whitewash the figures?
Air traffic at GAIA is limited to emigrated Barbadians and transit passengers. This will remain so until a vaccine is available. Whenever…
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The blogmaster reached out to the top of the chain to seek clarification on the matter. Here is the unedited reapply.
It’s not a simple average. Most of our economic activity takes place in quarter 1 and 2. In fact they are pretty close in terms in weighting hence why the cumulative decline appears to be just a simple weighted average. However, the Bank calculates economic activity for each quarter based on indicators, and then compares the growth relative to the previous year.
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John2
You put in words what was bothering me. What is the baseline/reference for each quarter?
If the baseline (comparator) for Q2 of this year is Q2 of last year, then the statistics are all relative to the corresponding quarter of last year. A simple averaging of the two numbers does not tell us anything unless Q1 and Q2 of last year have similar numbers. For example, we should not average 27% of 1000 and 3% of 100 would to get 15%.If the baseline/reference is the end of the last quarter of the last year (fixed or a constant) baseline then a simple averaging to get 15% is understandable and explainable. 27% of 100 + 3% of 100 would yield 15%.This may be the “annualized Rate” of PLT..
The GOCB needs to provide more detail behind his numbers.
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So what do these figures mean ? Just what we all know. The Barbados economy will get worse for the forseeable future.
Farming and fishing. Those of you who have land or a boat will live. -
Well it is not the annualized rate, but it is easier mathematics.
You don’t have to hurt your head with the 0.75=3 x 3/12 or the 6.75 =27×3/12 (3 months out of 12 months)
15=(6.75+0.75)X2 (two six months period)
And you thought the GOCB was bad -
So what do these figures mean?
I don’t have a clue, but I find it to be a good mental exercise. -
GAIA and the few hotels that are open, almost deserted.
Meanwhile, the unemployed locals are enjoying the beach at the taxpayers’ expense instead of starting a business.
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@ David August 7, 2020 8:05 AM
Simon Naitram made a good remark.
Most of the money earned in tourism stays outside the country.
Barbadians will forever remain backward and poor with tourism.
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Metric Wizards
What is it that you are trying to calculate ? -
🙂 How the 15% was derived 🙂
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You cannot read? It is not based on a simple average.
t’s not a simple average. Most of our economic activity takes place in quarter 1 and 2. In fact they are pretty close in terms in weighting hence why the cumulative decline appears to be just a simple weighted average. However, the Bank calculates economic activity for each quarter based on indicators, and then compares the growth relative to the previous year.
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@ David BU at 7 :29 PM
That seems pellucid to me and rational. Why is this second guessing going on? Surely whatever metric is used the economy has declined significantly from 2019. And there is nothing surprising about it.
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@David
“What about the faculty of business at Cave Hill?”
Do you understand the Saying/Quote SHOOT YOURSELF IN THE FOOT, this for Cave Hill is similar to suicide, not likely to happen.
The HAND THAT FEED YOU is sacred.
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BU Bloggers, wake up and understand, BULLSHIT BAFFLES BRAINS compiled by UWI & CBB, no sense wasting time trying to figure out the numbers, they’ve been prepared to be obscure and meaninglessness.
Forensic accounting is impossible when the forecast projections and numbers are delibertly obscure.
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@Wily Coyote August 7, 2020 8:53 PM
Are you on that plantation called Barbados right now? Have you ever gone through the insane COVID protocol?
The fact is there may be a handful of tourists on the island. Of course we must not count the windrushers and national returnees here. They cost the island more than they bring money in.
The fact is that Barbados is looking like a haunted house now. The locals are either hanging out on the beach or at the bar with rum instead of starting businesses. So much for the BLM’s Business Creation Initiative.
Ergo: the numbers of the central bank are heavily whitewashed, if not manipulated, to maintain the illusion of prosperity among the naive masses. At the latest when the payment moratorium on rents and mortgages is lifted, they will face judgment day. Many locals think that the moratorium is equivalent to a debt cut. This is going to be a rude awakening.
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@Tron August 7, 2020 9:36 PM “Many locals think that the moratorium is equivalent to a debt cut.”
This is a BIG FAT LIE.
NOBODY, NOBODY thinks that the debt moratorium is a debt cut. We know that the great white banks, unlike Good does NOT forgive us our debts.
My bank offered me a moratorium. I did not take it. In fact I had to write and call them and demand that they continue to take their payments.
My old man who finished schooling at age 11 taught us “if you can’t pay one week’s debt, how do you expect to be able to pay two week’s debt?
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@ Cuhdear Bajan August 7, 2020 10:22 PM
You are by far smarter than the average! 🙂
Anyway, you will also agree with me that people who are six months behind with their debts do not get off that easily. Once the moratorium ends, the big blow comes.
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Wuh happen to the measly ten percent govt promised the govt workers
Guess that disappeared as the Boss program took over meaning less at hand disposable income for these workers
The financial situation for most barbadians is in dire straits yet govt refuses to put disposable income in the peoples hand to help stimulate the economy and keep local business from falling off the deep end
Govt concentration on bringing tourist to our shores was handed another blow
Which now begs the question where is the plan B ready prepared to stimulate the barbados economy
Please dont tell me about projects in the pipe line -
Oops correction five percent
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Atherley Baulkes at Millions for Consultants
These folks are going to be getting what $840 000, that is a lot of money. One would have to wonder how far you are going to be taking this matter. This money will cover a certain
period but are there further payments to be made? And for how long a period do we expect to be involved in this arrangement with this consultant,” the Opposition Leader said -
@ Wily
“BU Bloggers, wake up and understand, BULLSHIT BAFFLES BRAINS compiled by UWI & CBB, no sense wasting time trying to figure out the numbers, they’ve been prepared to be obscure and meaninglessness.”Agree with you 100% here. Pure rigmarole. But this is the kind of cloudy, confused thinking which the local sheeple love and on which the politicians/ czars/ consultants/ advisors thrive.
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SENIOR MANAGEMENT
Mr. Cleviston L. Haynes, MA (Econ.) Governor Mr. Alwyn Jordan, MSc Deputy Governor Mr. Michael D. Carrington, F.C.C.A., MBA Deputy Governor (Ag.) Mr. Elson A. Gaskin, LLB (UWI), L.E.C., MBA, M.I.C.B.S., JP Secretary to the Board Ms. Celeste J. Wood, MSc, MBA Advisor Ms. Michelle Doyle Lowe, BSc, MPhil, CFA Advisor DIRECTORS
Mr. Philmore Thorne, BSc, F.C.C.A, MBA Financial Controller (Ag.) Ms. Cheryl Greenidge BSc MBA Director, Bank Supervision Ms. Julia A. Weekes, BSc, CFA. Director, Banking, Currency and Investments Mr. Charles Briggs BSc, MBA, CEng Director, Facilities Management Mr. Ian Collymore, MSc Director, Foreign Exchange and Export Credit Ms. Pamela Arthur, BA, MSc Director, Human Resources Mr. Steve A. Vaughn, F.C.C.A., C.I.A., F.C.A., MBA Director, Internal Audit Mr. Peter deC. Rochester, MBA Director (Ag.), Management Information Systems Mr. Anton Belgrave, MA (Econ) FRM Director, Research & Economic Analysis Department Ms. Janice D. Marshall, MBA Director, Strategic Planning and Risk Management DEPUTY DIRECTORS
Mr. Roger Gumbs, CGA, CFSA. Deputy Financial Controller (Ag.) Ms. Tamara Hurley, BSc, MBA Deputy Director, Bank Supervision Ms. Jennifer Clarke-Murrell, MSc Deputy Director (Ag.), Bank Supervision Ms. Shari Lorde Richards, MSc Deputy Director (Ag.), Bank Supervision Ms. Debbie Briggs, BSc, F.C.C.A. Deputy Director, Banking, Currency & Investments Ms. Octavia O. Gibson, BA, MSc, JP, PMP Deputy Director, Banking, Currency & Investments Ms. Novaline F. Brewster, MSc, JP Chief, Corporate Communications Ms. Sheryl Peter-Kirton, MSc Chief, Digital Programming Mr. Hartley O. Jordan, MBA Deputy Director, Facilities Management Ms. Wilma Belgrave BSc, ACIS Deputy Director, Foreign Exchange and Export Credit Ms. Sadie P. O. Dixon, LLB, LL.M., L.E.C. Legal Counsel Ms. Josephine Haywood, BSc Deputy Director, Management Information Systems Mr. Vincent Grosvenor, MSc Deputy Director (Ag.), Management Information Systems Mr. Darrin Downes, MA (Econ), LLB, L.E.C. Chief Economist Ms. Angela Skeete, MA Chief, Information Services -
What I find intriguing is that the “growth” in foreign reserves is not solely attributable to borrowings.
We are told tourism needs to be restructured so it can earn foreign exchange (net).
Sugar is insignificant these days.
Manufacturing is non existent.
Construction will consume foreign exchange.
So where does the growth in foreign reserves originate?
Off shore business aka money laundering perhaps?
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So funny in an unbelievable way that his govt all but handed millions of dollars to the big Cruise Industry giants under the Humanatarian policy now the Trump administration has step in and close all hopes of govt receiving any dividends in near future from the Cruise industry
Meanwhile the big Cruise Industry will receive their payout from the USA govt stimulate checks and the insurance industry while barbados economy continues to sink into quick sand
Somebody should have told this headless clueless bunch that good intentions does not pay bills and big Corporations understand the true meaning of the bottom line
Barbados economy in Covid time needed help
Most with certain the Cruise line had their plan B all mapped out which would have helped them to make it all the way to to shores without barbados govt having to open the treasury and hand some of the taxpayers money off to the Industry -
@John
You listened to the Governor or read the report? You realize he touched on the matter you however preferred to speculate?
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@David
What people have to realise is that Covid hit us at the end of the winter tourist season, so obviously reserves will be high as we had nearly 3 months of a decent winter season. Also remeber a considerable amount of those reserves are made up from borrowed money. They are not therefore net reserves.
High reserves though do not always signal a good economy. If you have high reserves and no demand for them due to a stagnant economy, you still aint no where good. What makes our situation dangerous especially in the private sector, is that businesses went into covid weak after 10 years of no growth. This has made them vulnerable and it is my view that by October we will have more layoffs as a result.
Based on this it would be the 3rd quarter report from the governor that will show the true picture.
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@John A
Is that what the Governor said? It is just one measure to be factored in the scheme of things.
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@David
The Gov gave us the figures but did not venture too deep into the pros and cons as that was not his purpose on that occasion. I differ from many here as i see the responsibility to translate the report falling on the shoulders of those who want our vote and the media.
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@John A
You want to buy in to the politicians version of the Central Bank data?
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@David
yours@6.06sm
Sure got a lot of Chiefs in that bunch -
@Sargeant
Separation of duty and all that jazz, you know how it goes.
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Funny when the Central bank gov was under the dlp administration anything he said was quickly dismissed by the blp yardfowls and David
Now as if night has turned into day the gov. mouthings are mostly welcomed with open arms by the hypocrites
Only a few days ago the gov said the economy had stabilized
Now a few days later he says the economy is going down hell without wheels
Which one is it gov
Stabilization or devastation -
Life is very funny. Here we are engrossed in calculating percentages. In the mean while:
Atherley baulks at millions paid to consultants
Leader of the Opposition Bishop Joseph Atherley on Friday lambasted the Government for paying out close to $47 million dollars in fees to consultants.
He opposed the House of Assembly Standing Finance Committee’s approval of a $314,000 supplementary for technical assistance consultancy fees for the Government’s senior economic advisor Dr Kevin Greenidge.
Atherley, who had earlier agreed to a $840,000 pay-out to consultants who are helping Government comply with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines, strongly objected to the supplementary to the Estimates for Dr Greenidge, a Barbadian economist on secondment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Opposition Leader said: “This Government criticised the last administration for the multiple millions spent on consultancy fees which was about $20 million or so and has gone upward to $47 million in consultancy fees.
“We just finished debating a resolution which spoke to the payment of $840 000 in fees and I supported that one. When these people are taken on the people of Barbados aren’t even sure what they are doing.”
He added: “I don’t have a problem with Dr Greenidge, he seems to be a brilliant Barbadian. The brief interactions I have had with him suggested that he is a fine young man. I do have to come to the conclusion that he does not always understand all the political nuances operating around him in terms of policy decisions.”
Yet, the St Michael West MP said he strongly objected to the amount and declared the money was not justified.
He said: “$314,000 for one consultant for the next year and in making the presentation we say it is a simple and straightforward matter; no it isn’t so simple and straightforward. I think the cost must be justified.”
He pointed out that Government cannot appear to be saving one way and spending in another.
“We just fired four of them because the Cabinet could not carry the costs; four Government ministers and a parliamentary secretary,” Bishop Atherley said. “You come in here and you are asking the Parliament of Barbados to vote for money towards this cause.”
“I am saying you can’t start by saying it is a simple and straightforward matter in a context where you fired four ministers to cut cost, in a context where Government’s purse is seriously constrained, in a context where thousands of Barbadians are out of work and where more are predicted to lose their jobs if you listen to the voice of the head of the private sector and the head of the Central Bank.”
And although he did not object to the earlier supplementary, to cover the fees of a consultancy contract between the Government and the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists, Atherley still commented on the amount that was approved.
“These folks are going to be getting what $840 000, that is a lot of money. One would have to wonder how far you are going to be taking this matter. This money will cover a certain period but are there further payments to be made? And for how long a period do we expect to be involved in this arrangement with this consultant,” the Opposition Leader said.
(IMC) Barbados Today@ Hal
You talk about “endng in tears”. You better learn to laugh real fast ! -
@David
No not at all I want the opposition who want my vote to do their dam job and break down the report for the benefit of the public. Likewise any other interest groups should feel free to do the same.
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@John A
It has to be the job of all stakeholders in civil society to contribute to the well being of the society.
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.