Central Bank Economic Review Jan-Sept 2020: High Fiscal Cost of Covid 19

Central Bank of Barbados Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Bank’s review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first nine months of 2020 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.

Central Bank of Barbados
Text version (PDF)

130 comments

  • They say confession is good for the soul.

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  • Artax never knew u were considered a stalker
    I am all ears .tell me more

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  • RE: “Sorry bro…. I fall into the class of idiots.”

    Your 6:24 AM contribution was sufficient enough for me not to be convinced otherwise.

    RE: “Artax never knew u were considered a stalker.”

    It seems we could add having a ‘short memory’ to the list. But, you could always ask your self-appointed lawyer. After all, it was him who made the accusation on your behalf.

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  • David u just couldn’t help yourself with your response to my comment which was not address to u but to Artax
    A form of self righteous indignation and for which should be given your much touted response
    Steupse

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  • NO

    I don’t know bout the decimals.
    I just drink the cool aid as served. My taste buds can it detect the amount of sugar put in or needed .

    You figured out those options yet?
    It still not to late to get in on NIO

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  • @Mariposa

    Keep up the fight. White Oaks are foreign, Prof Persaud has many nationalities (Barbados, UK, and most likely Indian and Guyanese), is Dr Ram a Barbadian? Is Mr Jong Barbadian? And those are the consultants we know of.
    Be careful. When people cannot debate with you they resort to all kinds of tricks, including throwing stone from the sidelines. But they really do not want to debate, they are cyberstalkers, a criminal offence in most jurisdictions…
    I have been called a financial adviser, despite correcting the silly person who made the claim, a polymath, as a form of insult, a lawyer, even though I could not spell law and have said so a number of times, a Roman Catholic, as a form of insult, a Marxist, as a form of rejection, I have been told I name-drop European intellectuals (what are those?) when I reference sources – I can go on. This is the BU predator.
    @Mariposa, you continue to make a lot of sense in your contributions. Those who try to make personal attacks are saying more about themselves than about you.
    Don’t be intimidated. The idea is to drive you away.

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  • Boys and girls…
    I am begging you to do the following
    Read the article by Ralph Jemmot
    then read the highly recommended EA article.
    Then judge them both on content. I say no more.

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  • Thanks Hal
    But nothing these elitist say moves me
    I made a comment on the many consultants PM has and off the fence a pedigree rush to make a claim of what i said is not true
    Bother i am not
    The fact being that barbados the size of a shoe box does not need outside consultants
    If Mia had any trust in our people many of whom are well schooled and educate she would have relied home grown advice
    You can also count the IMF advisors to the list
    Barbadian households are going belly up strained and stress from austerity measures and not one of these consultants are in any way of offering help to them
    Mr. Ram was just hired at a whopping 81thousand dollars for three months to advice govt how to clean up a dump and get garbage off the streets
    Not understanding such purpose
    For years barbados govt have been told to come up to international standards in regards of the enviroment
    Last govt tried with the WTE inititiative but to no avail Mottley was hell bent in not having one
    Fast foward five years later spanking new garbage trucks and the dump cells are overflowing showing signs that the dump can no longer hold the massive amount of garbage being delivered by the new spanking garbage trucks
    So what do we have here is a govt having to come to a realization that putting cart before horse does not working
    After all the fanfare of new garbage trucks the enviroment is no where better off toxins filled the air from the dump sites
    Now govt looking for solutions for the environment at a price of 81 thousand dollars to be placed in the pocket of another consultant
    Lawd hav merci

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  • Since when asking a simple question becomes “cyberstalking” and “throwing stones from the sidelines?”

    I was at pains trying to find the appropriate words to describe silly malicious people, who not only poke their noses into things that are of no concern to them, but play ‘victim’ by continually rehashing nonsense from the past when it’s clearly obvious everyone has moved on.

    If people are offended by being called a financial advisor, polymath or Roman Catholic, I shudder to think how even more offended other people would be, if they were described as savages, predators, wild beasts and animals that should be in the jungle.

    Or, for self-appointed lawyers, who seem to come out of the woodwork, uninvited, to also ‘cyberstalk’ anyone who dares to ask Mariposa a question………and similarly “try to make personal attacks,” which says more about themselves than about those” of us who engage her.

    I then remembered a contributor gave them a fitting description. I won’t repeat it, but, sufficed it to say, their behaviour is not usually associated with men.

    “But, I won’t be intimidated. The idea is to drive us away.”

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  • @ Mariposa

    This government had no re-CoVid economic policies, and now it has no post-CoVid policies. Remember when the president came off her sick bed and appointed a CoVid economic council and gave them four weeks to come up with proposals.
    It is now over four months and we are still to see these proposals. She prorogued parliament for weeks then in the Queen’s Speech, conventionally a time for government to set out its policies, we got a near-three hour long rant that said very little.
    All we got out of it was a Bds$300m bail out for badly managed, family-owned hotels with the details not spelt out; we got the promise of a post office/credit union bank, since then she has not published a White Paper.
    She has reorganised her MPs like the captain on the Titanic, fitting a square peg like Gline Clarke in the round hole of diplomacy, then co-opted Toni Moore in to a by-election in which the party will sink to any depth, even the abuse of school children, to win. Why?
    Silly uninformative questions about minutiae of government policy, something outside your remit, neither informs you nor the blog. All it does is to feed a mulching brain that wants to seem important.
    It is not their style to challenge your ideas, but they must always go for the jugular; they are verbal thugs, wild boys, swimming in a cesspit of ignorance. It is defensive.
    In an ideal world, the chairman would be protecting you, even if he did not agree with you; as things stand, he not only encourages the thugs, on many occasions he is the first to throw stones.

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  • We are taking the lead from Boris and the UK.

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  • @ David

    Mariposa has joined the ‘bangwagon’ to ‘say’ I refuted her comments, when she knows that is far from the truth.

    When I read the phrase, “wild boys, swimming in a cesspit of ignorance,” it immediately brought to mind someone saying Barbados is crime free, by making some silly reference to stealing cane from passing trucks and if you define crime by the number of arrests, prosecutions and convictions.

    That is definitely “a mulching brain that wants to seem important.”

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  • @Artax

    Too many issues to vent on than to focus on hypocrites and liars.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Who is the idiot who said Barbados was crime free. We have had crime since the Garden of Eden. But what is that truth if some braindead fool wants to make another BU joke.
    I have said Barbados does not have any serious gang crime. There is a difference between that and the illiterate claim there is no crime.
    As evidence, look at the regular parade of handcuffed men (usually men) walking in the court yard to appear before magistrates without a single security risk.
    In other jurisdictions, if a gangster was brought through that yard by police they would be blasted to smithereens. That alone tells me it is not a serious problem.
    Barbados is 14×21, everybody knows the relatives, friends and pets of serving police officers, not a single one has ever been attacked by a so-called gangster. That tells me that, however inconvenient the little crime we have (boys smoking spliffs), there is respect for the rule of law.
    In other jurisdictions if you work in law enforcement you have to change your way home after every shift, be careful of going out for meals or other forms of entertainment and you check your vehicles before getting in to drive. Talk to police in Northern Ireland.
    Here is a criminology lesson 101 for the slow: crime is a social construct, it is defined by legislation; so sometimes an anti-social act is defined by law as a crime, and on other occasions such offences are removed from the statute books. It also depends on the jurisdiction. Every incompetent book keeper knows there is a difference between tax avoidance and tax evasion. That difference is defined by law.
    Asking for a definition of crime is rather pertinent since two people cannot have a conversation unless they each agree on the rules. Cyberstalking is a serious crime in some jurisdictions, and treated as a game in others.
    Stealing from a moving vehicle may be treated as a serious offence in some jurisdictions, and as a bit of fun by teenagers in others. Homosexuality was a crime, now we are proposing same-sex marriages. Blasphemy was a crime in most jurisdictions, now it is allowed under free speech.
    An arrest does not mean a person has committed a crime, nor does a prosecution. It becomes a crime only when the accused has been convicted. I know BU does not understand due process, thus why the call to crucify Mr Parris of Clico.
    I suggest you go quietly back in to your box and do a bit more reading before opening your barking mouth about things you do not understand or know about.

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  • @Hal

    Like you I am waiting to hear what Sinkyuh and his learned panel of economic gurus have put to the MOF as their post covid economic transformation plan, other than giving a hotel sector with no demand for rooms $300M.

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  • @ John A

    I really do admire your stamina for tolerating a discussion that is not moving, and has moved very little for two years. This government does not intend to engage in any serious discussion and will continue to behave as if out of control.
    I have lost my patience with them. Not only that, the people interpret policy in terms of party bias, so nothing you say will be seen objectively. That is why at least one supporter comes on and accuses everyone who challenges the government of being a DLP supporter.

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  • @ David November 1, 2020 10:40 AM

    One issue which requires ‘venting’ (especially by the mainstream media) is what and where are the recommendations which were to be compiled by the various Covid Economic Recovery committees appointed by the Leader of the current administration.

    Have these committees turned out to be mere stillborn BS talk shops?

    Who has replaced OSA?

    What would the ‘new’ consultant be adding to the outcomes of those ‘think-tank’ committees presumably made up of the best brains on the island?

    Why haven’t the Opposition parties made an issue of this during the campaigning for the vacant SGN riding?

    Isn’t this a matter of trust and an indication that the current administration is merely whistling in the wind as far as the direction of the economy is concerned?

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  • @ David

    For heavens sake, why would someone allow themselves to become so ‘worked up’ at my contributions, when SCROLLING PASS them may prove to be therapeutic?

    On January 2, 2020 at 10:06 PM, someone posted the following comment to BU: “I remember a Barbados that was free of crime.”

    I SIMPLY ASKED that person to IDENTIFY the time period they were referring to, as is evidenced by the below contribution:

    October 23, 2020 6:39 AM: “Do you mind ‘telling’ the forum what year or duration of time Barbados “was free of crime?”

    I DID NOT engaged that, or any other individual in a discussion about crime, nor did I attempt to explain the intricacies of criminology as it relates to arrests, prosecution or convictions, as is apparently now being suggested. Additionally, there weren’t any references made to “Barbados not having any serious gang crime.”

    So, for anyone to ‘say’ I “should do a bit more reading before opening (my) barking mouth about things (I) do not understand or know about,” for asking a SIMPLE question, has to be a silly, appallingly ignorant buffoon.

    As usual the resident ‘know-it-all’ came out attacking, similarly to a wild, rabid, English bull-dog, frothing at the mouth:

    October 23, 2020 6:50 AM: “It depends on how you define crime. We always used to steal cane from the passing trucks. But you are RIGHT, if you DEFINE crime as meaning arrests and prosecutions and convictions.”

    I ‘asked’ if it was being suggested referring to “a Barbados that was FREE of CRIME” is DEFINED by “arrests, prosecutions and convictions?”

    October 23, 2020 12:09 PM #: How then, is crime defined? Is it defined as an act that becomes an unlawful or criminal offense, if it violates an applicable law that is determined by a (particular) country?
    Polygamy, for example, is crime in Barbados and any man who violates the law under which having of a plurality of wives is categorized, has essentially committed a criminal offense. It is extremely rare for anyone to be arrested, charged and convicted for the offense here. If we “define crime as meaning arrests and prosecutions and convictions,” is Barbados free of crime…… or free of the crime of polygamy?

    If ‘stealing canes from passing trucks’ was considered a criminal offense, would there be any basis for arrest, prosecution or conviction if the perpetrators were not caught or the activity not reported to the police? Would Barbados have been free of crime?
    ++++++++++++

    But, ‘his royal highness’ is now ‘saying’ “We have had crime since the Garden of Eden.” I won’t join him in the gutter to describe him as a brain-dead fool or a liar, because he maybe suffering from early stages of dementia, since a deterioration of memory is one of its symptoms.

    This also reminds me of another discussion about how the Transport Board was established. Despite correcting the brilliant man who made the claim government took over the operations of five private concessionaires, including Elite Bus Company, to form Transport Board in 1955, was incorrect, he continued in his wisdom. Calls from other contributors and me, for him to present proof, have remained unanswered.

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  • MariposaNovember 1, 2020 10:05 AM Use your brain. The consultant was most likely hired by ‘guidance’ from the significant lender and supervisory body.

    The economy is being directly impacted by the pandemic storm impacting the world. The IMF have a stake in ensuring that the necessary analysis is reported quickly.

    My guess is that this appointment is a necessary action by government, not a choice.

    You seem not to realise the economic storm about to be unleashed, because you aint seen nothing yet.

    Even some world leaders and major business leaders in developed countries do not yet understand just how bad this is. That is easily perceived by their idiotic comments and policy (in)action.

    On the earthquake scale, this is probably a good 8.5. Yes, those generate tsunamis.

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  • “Prof Persaud has many nationalities (Barbados, UK, and most likely Indian and Guyanese), is Dr Ram a Barbadian? Is Mr Jong Barbadian? And those are the consultants we know of.”

    Ignoring that Persaud was actually born in Barbados, 4 consultants have been listed as foreign. Four as a majority means the local consiltants would have to number 1, 2 or 3. Are we saying 7 consultants are too many or are we telling lies about how man consultants are actually Bajan? But then again the debt restructure was suppose to end in tears and civil court.

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  • Ultimately all the consultants can do is make recommendations on the state of the economy. With lockdowns now being reintroduced globally, forget tourist money for six months.

    They will have to ask the IMF for a two to three year ease, there will be little choice. An infrastructural program is probably the only way to keep things going locally.

    So may as well build homes for the poor, renew Bridgetown etc.

    Let Grenville be the project controller on the infrastructure works, at least he will stop people tiefing money. He can assess tenders, monitor construction works etc.

    Pay him the same as the fancy smancy economist is being paid. If he is willing.His input will be far more valuable at this stage, to ensure money is spent on quality and not carted away by the barrel.

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  • @2
    I thought the projected shortfall was more like 222, vs 22.
    I tried options via a nephew who works on Wall St. Won on one, lost on another and a bunch expired. So back to day trading, what I do best. Ably assisted by stocks yielding 5%+ moves in a day. It is gambling.

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  • No thanks!
    Govt keeping $7 million worth of shares in ICBL
    by SHAWN CUMBERBATCH shawncumberbatch@nationnews.com
    GOVERNMENT, through the National Insurance Board (NIB), is expected to keep its shares in the former state-owned Insurance Corporation of Barbados Limited (ICBL), declining a $7 million opportunity to sell.
    With ICBL’s majority owner Paynes Bay Finance Inc.’s (PBFI) extended takeover offer to minority shareholders scheduled to expire at 3 p.m. tomorrow, the DAILY NATION understands the NIB has signalled it will not be tendering its 9.91 per cent (3.9 million shares) stake in the insurer.
    PBFI, whose ultimate parent is JPK Capital Management Inc., owns 51.24 per cent (20.16 million shares) of ICBL through its wholly-owned subsidiary Hamilton Finance Limited, which it acquired from Bermuda’s BF& M Limited for $35.8 million in September.
    The NIB is the only entity outside of Hamilton Finance to own more than five per cent of ICBL, and if it turns down the offer to dispose of its shares for $1.78 each (US 89 cents), and other institutional or individual shareholders follow, this could stymie PBFI’s chance of acquiring 90 per cent of the company.
    Should the offeror receive shares tendered up to the equivalent of 90 per cent, it would be able to compulsorily buy the remainder.
    Avinash Persaud, who is chairman of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and deputy chairman of the NIB, with responsibility for investment, stressed that the takeover offer was still open but confirmed the NIB would not be selling its ICBL shares.
    Persaud said management of the social security scheme concluded there was better value to be had by retaining the insurer’s stock, and that this was the recommendation to the board.
    “Any long-term investor who does not need to get out of their investment would hold on to the one that would have more long-term value than at the current price. A long-term shareholder like NIS would reasonably not accept the offer,” he said.
    Critical shareholders
    Some shareholders have criticised PBFI’s cash offer of $1.78 per share as being too low, considering that ICBL’s shares last traded at $3 each on the Barbados Stock Exchange on September 4.
    However, PBFI officials said the deal was equivalent to what they offered BF& M. Prior to selling, BF& M revealed that when its financial year ended on last December 31, ICBL had a book value of $49 million, so that the controlling interest it disposed of was “written down by $13.2 million to fair value as at December 31, 2019”.
    ICBL’s board of directors, in a recent circular to more than 2 100 institutional and individual minority shareholders, advised them to accept the takeover offer.
    Speaking in his capacity as FSC chairman, Persaud said the regulator had carefully examined BF& M’s sale to PBFI “to make sure it was an arm’s
    length relationship, that the buyout was fit and proper, and that they were going to maintain a healthy level of capital.
    “They have made all of those commitments. We then asked them to follow the takeover code which is to make an offer to everybody else. Everybody else doesn’t have to accept but they have the option,” he noted.
    Persaud also said the FSC had asked PBFI to extend its offer from the original expiration date of October 20 until tomorrow, November 3. This was because there were some concerns that while the offer to shareholders was dated September 18, 2020, the correspondence did not reach all shareholders at the same time.
    In the circular to shareholders, PBFI said: “The offeror and its parent have no immediate plans or proposals to effect any major changes in the business operations or management of ICBL. Further, there is no plan or proposal to liquidate, sell any of the assets, or to merge ICBL with any other company.
    “The offer is being made by the offeror to acquire all of the outstanding ICBL shares it does not already own. If the offeror is successful in acquiring all of the issued and outstanding ICBL shares it does not already own, the offeror intends to delist the ICBL shares from the Barbados Stock Exchange.”

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  • @NO
    It is gambling.
    Never fully understood options and I avoid them.

    My computer is too slow for day trading.

    Just a buy and gold guy. Nothing fancy.

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  • Gold=hold

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  • NO
    TheO

    It’s all gambling. Even if you invest in land
    Just one way is more secured than the other

    I wish you had done the trades by urself and not through your nephew. You lean from experiencing

    And for just starting out on options. IMO. Those were too many that u bought

    Seem to me like ur time factor was too short

    Try this one if you can

    NIO. Call option
    Expire dec. 2022
    Price. …… (. What ever the market price of the stock is today / when you buy it)

    TO

    You can buy and hold options also
    I started as a buy and hold and study/learn/ grew from there. Now a do some of all three
    Buy and hold for the dividend
    A lot of trading but not necessarily day trading
    Options buy and hold and trading

    I will have to find away to hook up with you guys to give you some tips

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  • GDP should rise with the high levels elective surgeries to be done.

    If we could only get our young folks to care for their elderly parents and relatives.

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  • NO & ThO

    Just an example of the difference

    When my stocks for NIO was up 100%

    My options for NIO was up over 1000%

    Ps…. NIO is blazing again in pre market. Up over 10%

    Like

  • Here is the minister of health on the nation’s preparations for the probable CoVid vaccine from Pfiger. It shows unpreparedness, incompetence and a man not on top of the crisis.
    The issue is: Have we placed any orders for vaccines? Yes or no? Why don’t we have a Czar to pull together all information and policies on CoVid? What is our epidemiological model? Why is there no CARICOM procurement plan?

    In an interview with the MIDWEEK NATION, Bostic said Government has already started exploring solutions to possible logistical hurdles in anticipation that the vaccine will soon be ready for mass distribution, as some scientific experts are predicting. For example, the minister explained that initial reports said the vaccine must be stored at a temperature of -70C (-94F), which is much lower than what the average home freezer can reach. …(Quote)

    Like

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