Central Bank of Barbados Review of the Economy: January – June 2020

 

Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first six months of 2020 and gives his outlook for the remainder of the year.

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

Central Bank of Barbados Review of the Economy – January to June.pdf (text)

244 comments

  • It’s time to activate my propsed STARVE program (wage cap etc pp, firing public servants). Without tourists our Aborigines have the economic power of about 5000 USD per head. I think that puts us in the African and Asian midfield.

    In winter COVID19 will get worse again. Certainly the opposition will demand a second lockdown. Let’s see if the government can withstand the pressure. If not: It doesn’t have to be a roast beef for Christmas. Rats will do.

    Like

  • So funny Tron so funny is that all you got in your humours bag of arsenal
    A Starve and unemployedprogram.Fuh christ sake have a heart
    Here is a govt who had ten years in the wilderness to create a growth program however decides to ride in the town on a debt ridden horse piling on massive debt
    Boy uh tell when yuh not wearing the tight shoe yuh got all kknds of great ideas how to make the shoe fit comfortably but when yuh have to wear the shoe that is another story
    As i alluded govt has a barrage of lazy thinkers called consultants not to mention the ministers who couldn’t tie a shoe lace no matter how hard they try
    Imagine two and one half years gone by and not one policy whereby to create growth and put barbados economy into sustainable terriorty
    Yet the mundane topics on BU makes BU sound like a gossip shop
    Who really cares if George Payne who is infamous on social media as a crook gets fired or shuffled out the door
    What bajans really care to hear how will they pay their bills ..keep roof over their heads and get a job
    Btw imagine a city called Squatters Row would soon be relocated to another residence all at taxpayers expense
    Isnt Barbados sweet doah

    Liked by 1 person

  • Wrong, very wrong, Mariposa.

    The opposition is to blame for everything, because they forced our government to take excessive COVID19 measures at the airport, which deter our tourists. Also racist and homophobic statements from the opposition are scaring off our tourists.

    The opposition, not the government, wants my STARVE programme.

    Like

  • The Governor indicated the government was focused on retaining public sector jobs because the economy would be in danger of “pauperizing” itself with so many workers sent home in the private sector. He gave BOSS as an example of government working to keep public workers from the breadline.

    More jobs will be lost
    By Colville Mounsey
    With the 22-week layoff period set to end in a month for thousands of workers, the business sector is concerned that a large enough number of companies cannot take back those workers, or pay severance.
    Both the Barbados Private Sector Association (BPSA) and Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) are urging the Government to get ahead of the impending situation.
    BPSA chairman Edward Clarke told the Weekend Nation yesterday that the only way this fate could be avoided was if there were a major pick-up in economic activity in the short to medium term, but the clock was ticking for lesser capitalised businesses.
    “When the 22 weeks are up, people would be due to return to work and the issue would be whether these businesses have the capital availability to retain these workers or to pay out all of them. I am not aware which businesses will face this issue, as some businesses have a stronger capital and balance sheet than others, but the reality is that some may not.
    Not able to pay
    “Those are the ones that would concern us, as one must determine what would happen to those employees, as a number of companies are likely to be in no position to pay severance. It is likely that the strain goes back on the public and that is something that we do not want to see, but we are in unknown waters and we need to tread carefully,” said Clarke.
    His comments came one day after Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes, in his economic outlook for the rest of the year, said further job losses in the private sector were likely.
    “The reopening of borders will enable some businesses to restart their operations and re-engage employees currently relying on unemployment insurance. However, some additional job losses can be expected as firms adapt to the reduced economic activity and uncertainty,” Haynes said.
    Clarke said the governor’s report was not surprising to the business sector and additional job cuts were indeed likely.
    “If we don’t see a pick-up in economic activity there would be more layoffs in Barbados. The Government cannot sustain an indefinite unemployment scheme and certainly the private sector cannot sustain a return to the employment levels of pre-COVID-19 with the economic activity. So, if we don’t see a revenue stream, people have to take precaution to protect the long-term survivability of their business and you would see some continuing expenditure cuts, which would include employment cuts,” he said.
    Brace for closures
    BCCI president Trisha Tannis said that in addition to the grim prediction of job losses, the country ought to brace for the closure of more small and medium-sized businesses.
    She too, noted that major companies were likely to restructure, removing non-essential components in order to attain economic buoyancy, and therefore several layoffs were going to be converted to permanent job losses.
    “It is a distinct possibility that a few more businesses are going to have to close their doors. Unfortunately,we do see some major players that are going through some very deep restructuring.

    You can well imagine that if large, well-capitalised companies are going through this sort of structural shock, then certainly the medium and small enterprises are facing harsher prospects.
    “The larger companies are going to opt for restructuring so that they do not fold, but certainly when you are not as well capitalised, you might find yourself having to look for another enterprise in which to engage because the losses are just too overwhelming,” said Tannis.
    Tannis said as the layoff periods were coming to an end, not all of those employees would return to their jobs.

    Source: Nation Newspaper

    Like

  • To what degree will be used by the government and accepted by the electorate as a get out of ‘jail’ card for the economy time will tell.

    COVID has Created Severe Economic Challenges for Barbados… But Some Indicators Remain Positive

    Created 06 Aug, 2020


    Central Bank of Barbados Governor Cleviston Haynes, revealed during his half year review that Barbados recorded a double-digit decline in economic activity for the first six months of 2020.

    “The virtual cessation of activity in the tourism sector, combined with curfews and temporary business closures, deepened the initial contraction that was realised during the first three months of the year. Preliminary data now suggests that economic output fell by 27 percent in the second quarter, resulting in an overall decline of almost 15 percent over the first six months of 2020.”

    The slowdown in the economy resulted in significant job losses, with more than 33,000 unemployment claims and a total pay-out of over $70 million being recorded by the National Insurance Scheme between late March and the end of June. More than 30 percent of those claims were by people directly employed in the tourism sector, which saw long-stay arrivals decline by approximately 54 percent and cruise arrivals down by 34 percent, but layoffs were not limited to that sector. Retail (also known as the distribution sector), construction, and real estate, and other industries have also seen layoffs, underscoring how significantly tourism activity impacts other areas of the economy.

    http://www.centralbank.org.bb/news/article/9975/covid-has-created-severe-economic-challenges-for-barbados-but-some-indicators-r

    Like

  • @Dullard

    The blogmaster is willing to be educated. Does it matter the size of the output achieved in both quarters to determine the real percentage decline?

    Like

  • “Preliminary data now suggests that economic output fell by 27 percent in the second quarter, resulting in an overall decline of almost 15 percent over the first six months of 2020.”

    Very poor work by the Governor and whoever else put together this report.

    The “overall decline over first six months” can NEVER be 15%. In Q1 the decline was 3%. In Q2 it was 27%.
    Therefore the “overall decline over first six months” is 1- [(1-3%) x (1-27%)] = 29.2%. This is almost double the 15% stated in the report.

    How can this report be taken seriously when the very first paragraph has such a blatant and basic error.

    @Blogmaster could you delete the duplicate post above with the typo please?

    Like

  • Does it matter the size of the output achieved in both quarters to determine the real percentage decline?
    Of course not. But that is not the point. The point is that all numbers should be sensible, consistent and credible. And these are not.

    A 27% decline in Q2 following a positive, non zero decline can never any where near 15%. This is such an egregious error that I would be tempted to be suspicious of the CBB’s data, methodologies and peer review processes.

    I would love to hear someone from CBB explain where the 15% comes from.

    Like

  • @Dullard
    Your approach, I believe, is the correct one and is one of the ways I tackled it.

    I suspect that some sort of averaging was then done.

    If you average your number and round-up, you get 15. I am no economist, but I have a great deal of experience in ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’.

    Like

  • @Dullard

    Let us see if Vincent feels inclined to clarify this matter. Why would the central bank try to obfuscate a matter like this which will receive the glare of scrutiny from all and sundry?

    You guys need to relax.

    Like

  • @David

    It would appear the governor used a sliding average to arrive at the 15%. In other words 1+27=28÷2=14%

    Numbers can be played with depending on how they are presented

    Like

  • @John A

    Thanks, would you have used this calculation to accurately reflect the performance quarter over quarter to show overall decline?

    Like

  • @David

    When I say how they were presented let me give you an example.

    Say a store sells $10,000 a day and its sales fell to $7500 a day. If say a newspaper wanted to stress how bad things were, a headline could read THINGS BAD SALES DROP A WHOPPING 25% IN A SINGLE DAY. Another person wanting to paint a bright picture, could also say and be correct SALES FELL BY ONLY $2500 ON THAT DAY.

    Both would be correct, its all about presentation and purpose when the statement is made.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @John A

    It seems from the utterance of the Governor the government is committed to protecting public sector jobs. One must assume the x variable to being able to sustain such a position is the period of the global downturn as a result of COVID 19 and the efficiency of government managing expenditure and forex reserves. Agree?

    Like

  • peterlawrencethompson

    The statement by the Central Bank is nonsensical, but the media is math illiterate so it has been widely reported without question. Presumably, What the Central Bank meant to say was that “…economic output fell by 27 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter, resulting in an overall decline of almost 15 percent over the first six months…”

    The omission of those four words, and the fact that no reporter could tell that it was an error, makes me weep for the education system in Barbados.

    Like

  • Simon Naitram

    President of the Barbados Economic Society (BES) Simon Naitram is raising an alarm that the tourism sector could prove to be a net user of foreign exchange more than it is a contributor, given the economic performance so far this year.

    Reacting to the Central Bank report, which showed a major decline in economic activity of about 27 per cent over the last three months, Naitram said three things stood out to him most – the performance of the international reserves and tourism’s estimated contribution, government spending and the overall impact of the pandemic on the economy.

    In his report yesterday, Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes said due to the 27 per cent decline in economic output in the second quarter of the year, the economy declined by almost 15 per cent over the first six months.

    This was due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Haynes also reported that the international reserves grew significantly, by $536 million, largely due to borrowings from the Inter-American Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

    Government spending rose almost eight per cent, to reach $570.7 million for the first six months.

    Naitram, who recently called on authorities to urgently restructure the tourism industry, told Barbados TODAY the “big” decline in economic activity was expected given the current circumstances.

    However, pointing to the increase in foreign reserves, he said this was “an entirely surprising figure”.

    “Why? The Central Bank reported a $536 million increase in the foreign reserves—of which $438 million was an inflow of borrowed funds. That’s a net increase of almost $100 million in a period where tourism activity fell by more than 50 per cent,” he said.

    “If tourism really is our main foreign exchange earner, then there should have been a similarly large decline in foreign reserves. While there may be other factors at play including supply chain disruptions and decreased domestic demand, the data seems to suggest that tourism could actually be a net user of foreign exchange rather than a net earner. This may be due to the structure of the tourism industry, with a heavy reliance on foreign ownership, an internationally-based payments model, and an import-oriented business model,” he explained.

    Shifting his focus to the modest increase in government’s expenditure, Naitram said such an increase could be considered a good thing generally, but given the crisis situation facing the country “spending forms an important part of the policy response” and it was expected to be higher.

    The economist said: “In particular, we expected increased spending on policies aimed at keeping small businesses alive in order to limit permanent scarring from the pandemic.

    “The small increase in spending raises the concern that policy implementation might be stalled, or that the policies may not be easily scalable. This should sound alarm bells for the planned public and private capital works projects, which will need to get off the ground quickly,” he added.

    He said the country was now slowly getting a clearer image of the effects of the pandemic, the health and economic risks, and the trade-off between those risks.

    Naitram is hoping that better policy decisions would be taken in coming months to limit any further economic fallout.

    “As we get better information and a better understanding of the situation, it will hopefully help the Government and the Central Bank to make better policy decisions about how to limit the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic during the second half of what has already been a long 2020,” he said marlonmadden@barbadostoday.bb

    Like

  • @david
    If you don’t see a problem with the CBB reporting a headline figure that is half of what is supposed to be based on their own statistics, then just say so.

    @ John A
    The use of averages make zero sense in this context. How much has the economy shrunk in 2020? That is the question. The Guv says 15% whereas his own numbers say that the decline is double that.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    Here the chief apologist goes again. He never tires of trying to call rain sunshine when it fits his political purpose.
    Simple fact; Tourism down plus 50 %; unemployment at 28 % and the NIS heading into dangerous waters. These facts do not reflect the current administration’s, considerable efforts , to halt declind before COVID-19.
    However, we need to just accept that we have been bowled an unplayable yorker by fate. Let us stop trying to make mud flour or sugar. Our country’s economy now calls for creativity and innovation to pull it back from the brink. I await the the throne speech and what we are going to do to survive in this precarious period. Saying “this is who we are and we are all in this together” , may be nice and uplifting slogans but we first need to accpet two basic realities:
    1. Our current economic situation is not the government’s fault
    2. Correcting it is going to call for a national effort by ALL citizens and interest groups
    My first suggestion to the PM and cabinet is to put confidence in the hundreds of budding and existent small to mediums size businesses , by injecting any available millions into their effotrs, this will quickly create employment; unleash some money in the economy and dampen imports thereby protecting foreign ex. Rather than trying to hopelessly raise forex via tourism lets save it by injecting limited funds into our own people..
    We put all our eggs into the tourism basket and the results are there for all to see. Making the same mistake twice will be economic treason against the state.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Dullard

    Why would you arrive at such a conclusion? The blogmaster is on your side. All of us want to know the most accurate way the data should be presented. Surely there is a best practice for this kind of thing? You should be use to this blogmaster’s modus operandi by now.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    Why ca’nt we put all government workers on a four day week ? Why can’t we slash all MPs salaries by 12 % ?

    Like

  • @ Dullard

    You fall for it every time. I now refuse to debate with some people.

    @PLT

    The media are mathematically illiterate. Are you including BU?

    I have said before, unless you are told the methodologies numbers can mean anything.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ david.

    Yes the problem is we want to hold on to jobs so as not to bring a recession or add to the 33,000 unemployed. The problem is this will come at the price of a massive deficit. If you remember earlyier in the year i told you we could run a deficit in excess of $500M if we didnt reduce our expenses or regain growth.

    The truth is we are between a rock and a dam hard place right now. If we lay off public sector workers to reduce the deficit we risk a recession. If we keep on as going we will have a massive deficit.

    Pick wunna poison.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Dullard

    The governor is not wrong and neither are you depending on the formula chosen. If the Gov based his statement on a cumaltive YTD total and took an average he may well get 15%. If you only look at month to month then for say March or April you may see 27%.

    Now the question we can debate is the Gov’s way misleading? One could argue yes or no. Is he wrong the answer would be No. As i said its all about how one formulates the figures.

    What i have noticed with this Gov is he gives us all the figures. If he chooses to package them in a positive way that is his right. Remeber he is not changing the figures just packaging them for presentation.

    It is then left for us to disect them.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Another BULLSHIT BAFFLES BRAIN report. Figures(math not shaply) comes from the Barbados free education system, hmmmm. I particularly like the HIGH FORGIVEN RESERVE numbers, not much mention that 75% of this number is BORROWED MONEY and not GDP generated. Countries financial stability continues to deteriorate. CBG even donated a page to BOSS and attempted to put a positive spin on this DEBT(which has a better than even chance of never being repaid), the issue this is more DEBT and continues to support an inflated and under performing civil service.

    Liked by 2 people

  • @David

    The problem we face is we know where we are, the question is what plan do we have to move from here?

    That to me is where the deafening silence is!

    Liked by 1 person

  • @John A

    In an environment where the economy was working to stabilize before the pandemic struck what are the drives that we can suddenly pull to trigger growth? Like you said, between a rock and a hard place. We can continue to reallocate expenditures in the budget but with deminsiding revenues what are the options? The borrowings and grants we have accumulated for infrastructural development will take us so far. We can promote micro business but this will not move the needle to stop the free fall when the reserves hit critical.

    From a practical standpoint the government has to manage the fine line between creating a safety net for the vulnerable and at the same time implement strategies to prepare for when the global economy responds. This is the plight of an open economy ad SID.

    Like

  • It is difficult for us to understand how any government could have made such a fundamental misjudgement about the economy thereby failing to see the depression which we had long forecasted and now expects that it can hide under a Covid rock.

    That some here would provide the escapism for government to simply have another throne speech as a way of ignoring the underlying indicators of this depression which should have informed their pre-election thinking.

    Indeed, what we really need is a new election for goverment”s new thinking to be subjected to broad the appropriate scrutiny.

    Like

  • peterlawrencethompson

    @Hal & @David & @Dullard
    The facts are as follows:
    1. Barbados’ economic output fell by 3% on an annualized basis in Q1. This means that if the economic output continued to fall at that pace the decline would be 3% over a year. Economic output fell by 0.75% between January and March.
    2. Barbados’ economic output fell by 27% on an annualized basis in Q2. This means that if the economic output continued to fall at that pace the decline would be 27% over a year. Economic output fell by 6.75% April and June.
    3. The total fall in economic output in Barbados is therefore 7.5% over the first six months of 2020. On an annualized basis this is a rate of economic contraction of 15%.

    It was grossly incompetent of the Central Bank to present the data in the way they did. It is grossly incompetent of the local media to simply quote the figures without finding ways to explain them to the public.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @David

    What i see sadly lacking from government is a frank and open diacussion as to how we will move on from here.

    In other words do we plan for a 3 yr alternative energy project where at the end we will be 30% less dependant on oil imports?

    Is there a plan say to reduce food imports by 30% over the next 3 years with an island wide green house project?

    Is there a fresh water fish farming project where we can dam run off water and start raising fresh water fish for the supermarkets?

    In other words what is the dam plan and when it going start to help us reduce the demand for FX and promote economic growth?

    What has Chris “Zerox” Sinkler and his band of planners come up with?

    It is this that i find totally frustrating.

    Like

  • @PLT

    What it shows is the press dont have a clue about understanding numbers as Hal has been saying for ever. The Gov hands us a nicely wrapped box but nobody bothers to open it and explore its contents.

    Well nobody except we miserable people here on BU. LOL

    Liked by 2 people

  • @ John A

    That is called fiscal space. Talk to Dr Greenidge.

    Like

  • @John A

    What you want maybe coming in the Throne Speech when parliament returns in September?

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A

    Hold on until Sept 15 for more on tourism. Has this government, or the tourism authorities done a projection on tourism in the short-term, post-CoVid? If so, is it publicly available? If not, why not?

    Like

  • We will not see an economic recovery for the rest of the year either.

    The few air passengers who come to Barbados are mostly poor windrushers or equally poor returning Barbadians, but not foreign tourists who are eager to spend money.

    So we have rat for Christmas after all and no roast beef.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @PLT

    I didn’t think of annualised rates. I assumed that they would plainly state what their own numbers mean. This is actually more embarrassing because that one word changes the entire picture.

    Cheers!

    Like

  • WS

    Putting workers on a 4 day wee is the samething as a salary cut
    You would have to repeal the law to do both of you suggestions.

    You cannot reduce anyone wages/salary without their consent .

    Like

  • @John2

    You can with a constitutional change.

    Like

  • Why should a news reporter or Editor of an ordinary newspaper in Barbados be expected to interpret a report by the GOVENOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK ?

    We should expect accuracy from the top maguffees who get paid kazillions of dollars for their QUALIFICATIONS AND COMPETENCE.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Dullard

    This must be a first for you – the oversight. It can happen to the best of us.

    Like

  • Dullard

    How about this?

    For the first 3 months at 3 per month = 9
    second 3 months at 27 = 81

    total over 6 month = 90

    average for those 6 month = 90/6 = 15

    0r as john A 3 + 27 = 30 / 2 quarters = 15

    Like

  • David

    Did you missed where i said you have to repeal the law?

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    The Governor has given his assessment of the performance of the economy for the first half of 2020. No surprises given the virtual close off of the economy. However we slice and dice the statistics there has been a decline which we all expected.
    It is very difficult to make a forecast with the rapidly changing landscape. Policies going forward can only be mitigating. There should be no surprises in the coming Throne Speech. There are some compelling parameters for very small developing economies, and the chief one is that of control of the International Economic System and the seismic contortions it goes through from time to time. Of course we can opt to jump off the planet but not at the expense of my tax dollars nor further tampering with the National Pension Scheme. It is already close to collapse.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    I did not see any framing of the statistics by the Governor to support any particular position. The charts and statistics were published so that any commenter may write his favourite narrative.

    Like

  • @Vincent

    Agree with most of what you opined.

    Like

  • @John2

    Amend not repeal.

    Like

  • DAVID

    i was referring to the law passed by OA/BLP after Sandy 8% cut in the 90s.

    Amend / repeal /modify/ update makes to difference to me. Just that it is illegal and you would have to change the law to make it legal.

    Like

  • @Hal

    This is where a well trained financial reporter should be educating the public by picking apart the data and delivering it to them in small information bites that all can understand.

    Then again a good half ass opposition should also do the same thing.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @John A

    What about the faculty of business at Cave Hill?

    Like

  • @David

    Yes they too would be an excellent non bias option to break it down. The issue with reports like these is that much can be couched by the way one shares the information. As PLT said earlier, this information went out to a host of reporters who questioned nothing. Not that the information shared was wrong, its just it was put out using a formula that was shall we say “favourable” to all.

    The Gov did his job, its just once again the media and opposition have failed miserably to do theirs. In other words its not a case of what was said more so one of what wasnt said.

    Like

  • @ John A

    We go round in circles. I have said on numerous occasions that our newspapers can improve their financial coverage in either of two ways: by employing a young economics graduate and sending him/her for training as a journalist; or, sending an experience reporter to learn economics and finance.
    Marva Cossy was the last person at the Nation who understood trade and finance. I understand she is now teaching at Cave Hill. Another young lady I met who once worked at the Advocate came to London to do a PhD; I have not heard anything about her for years.
    There is also the attitude of Barbadians. Some time ago a young woman came to London to do an MA in International journalism at City University. I met her while taking part in a discussion at the high commission.
    I invited her to do some work experience at Financial Times Business, but she refused. She thought it was an insult. On another occasion a Jamaican publisher, sadly now dead, came to have a working breakfast with me and I pitched the idea of a Caribbean-wide English language weekly financial paper, he went totally silent. It is still a very good idea.
    But, you can take a horse to a pond. But the people get what they are happy with. You only have to read BU to see whatever the subject the outcome is always a political discussion. Just read the mumbo jumbo about fiscal space.
    Cheap laughs and verbal heckling goes down well on BU. It hides an enormous amount of ignorance and a reluctance to learn. Just read the nonsense many of the economic spokespeople the media run to say.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @John A

    This may be so but like Vincent stated the primary data was shared in the central bank report.

    >

    Like

  • @Hal Austin August 7, 2020 1:54 PM “There is also the attitude of Barbadians. Some time ago a young woman came to London to do an MA in International journalism at City University. I met her while taking part in a discussion at the high commission. I invited her to do some work experience at Financial Times Business, but she refused. She thought it was an insult.”

    I am not sure why you thought, that she thought that it was an insult. Did she ell you that she was insulted? If not how do you know that she thought it insulting?

    Would the offer of work experience at the Financial Times would have been a paid offer or an unpaid offer?

    if an unpaid offer, maybe she knew that she could not afford to live in a city as expensive as London if she had little or no money. Perhaps her funding for the MA in international journalism had already run out?

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Dullard August 7, 2020 8:06 AM “How much has the economy shrunk in 2020?”

    The truth is that we cannot know how much the economy has shrunk in 2020, and we cannot know until after December 31, 2020.

    We ALL know that the April 1, to June 30 has been has been very, very bad. Even an innumerate person like me can see that.

    We expect that the six months from July 1 to December 31 will also be very bad, perhaps very, very bad.

    But the truth is we can’t know until after the fact.

    Just as i cannot know what will happen at 4:00 p.m. today

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Hal

    I am a believer in the fact that we get the press we accept. If we didnt buy their papers and demanded better, we would then get better. What i am quickly coming to conclude is the average Bajan has no interest in either The Central Bank Report or the Auditor General’s report. Unless someone non bias breaks these down into 2 line bullet points I believe few stop to read either publication.

    It is a sad reflection on our complacency in governance, but what else can one do to enlighten and educate.

    Like

  • @David

    Yes and I agree with Vincent in that the data was there, what i said to Hal above though is the issue. Its the format and language that many dont understand and hence they ignore it.

    For example years back when I was more involved in business, the accounting company that I used would hold a breakfast seminar after every budget and break down 4 hours of a budget, into 10 pages of highlights. That type of thing is what is lacking for the general public. You need UWI or some non bias institution to do this for the public, so that they can understand the seriousness of our situation.

    Like

  • @peterlawrencethompson August 7, 2020 8:03 AM “The omission of those four words, and the fact that no reporter could tell that it was an error, makes me weep for the education system in Barbados.”

    Save your tears Peter.

    Maybe it is not the educational system?

    Maybe it is the capitalist who own the media?

    Ask yourself why the brightest and the best are not in the media.

    Would you be willing to work for less that $3,000 per month when your peers who like you had graduated from Harrison College, Queen’s College, UWI, and elite universities in North America and Europe are earning $8,000+ per month while the capitalist who own the media expect you to work for $3,000 or less?

    When the capitalists who own the media are willing to pay excellent people what they are worth, then we will get excellent people.

    With sincere apologies to those who toil in the media, the Americans have a saying “if you pay peanuts expect to get monkeys”

    Liked by 2 people

  • @John A

    I do not like the obsession with comparing, the what about those over there thesis, but it is important that there is a top level inquiry going on in the UK about the Future of Journalism, ranging from aspiring reporters to ownership to technology to content.
    It is the difference between a society that takes these things seriously and one that talks a lot. I will give an example, as these best illustrate the point.
    Not very long ago I was at Seawell and after going through the the check in I went to the book shop in the departure lounge.. The international edition of the Economist carries recommended sales prices on the cover and I thought I would get a copy to read on the flight.
    To my shock, the actual price was abut three times the recommended price. I raised this with the brown-skinned guy behind the counter and he exploded. Nobody can tell him how much to charge, he spewed out. I left him with his magazine, read my book and bought a copy of the magazine when I arrived in London.
    Another point is this: why do we charge VAT on books?

    Liked by 1 person

  • Read page 1 of the pdf.

    Like

  • @Hal Austin August 7, 2020 2:37 PM “Not very long ago I was at Seawell and after going through the the check in I went to the book shop in the departure lounge.. The international edition of the Economist carries recommended sales prices on the cover and I thought I would get a copy to read on the flight. To my shock, the actual price was abut three times the recommended price. I raised this with the brown-skinned guy behind the counter and he exploded. Nobody can tell him how much to charge, he spewed out.”

    Of course sensible people understand that a recommendation is exactly that, a recommendation, NOT a command. The Economist cannot know the expenses of every retailer of their magazine, so they cannot command that it be sold for a certain price. So it is up to cheapskate consumers to negotiate a lower price, or take it or leave it if the retailers price is too rich for them.

    And did the young man really “explode”, did he really “spew” or is hyperbole instead of truth being written.

    Like

  • I don’t want to belabor this but that annualised figures argument does not wash.

    If we assume annualised figures (imputing what the Guv has not said) then the argument is that economy fell c. 6% in Q2 vs Q1. I do not believe that.
    In Q2 the US GDP contracted c. 9% on the previous quarter , the UK c. 20% and the Eurozone c. 12%. These are all more robust and diversified economies.

    In Q2 tourism was shut down and there was mass unemployment and very little economic activity.

    I think my original point stands, . The economy has contracted c. 30% since the start of the year.

    Like

  • isnt the Barbados quarter results in comparson to the year befor instead of the quarter before?

    Like

  • yesi think thats it. Bim usually report a bit different from the USA. so manybe that when the 15% for the year comes from.

    Normally he just used to give quarter by quarter compared to the year before.

    he never gave the total at 6monts or 9months

    Like

  • A former regular on BU years ago when he was in opposition and well liked by BU regulars is making promises. Good luck Willie D.
    https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/08/07/options-for-housing-coming-duguid/

    Like

  • NorthernObserver

    The NIS. The big unknown. Since the chair is now a Minister, has he stepped down? Who has replaced him? As economic contraction continues, and it will, the NIS looms larger and larger. The silence on this entity is now beyond deafening.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ peterlawrencethompson August 7, 2020 9:00 AM

    Why do you always have to destroy the illusion of a perfect world when the head of the central bank once again tries to whitewash the figures?

    Air traffic at GAIA is limited to emigrated Barbadians and transit passengers. This will remain so until a vaccine is available. Whenever…

    Liked by 1 person

  • The blogmaster reached out to the top of the chain to seek clarification on the matter. Here is the unedited reapply.

    It’s not a simple average. Most of our economic activity takes place in quarter 1 and 2. In fact they are pretty close in terms in weighting hence why the cumulative decline appears to be just a simple weighted average. However, the Bank calculates economic activity for each quarter based on indicators, and then compares the growth relative to the previous year.

    Like

  • John2
    You put in words what was bothering me. What is the baseline/reference for each quarter?
    If the baseline (comparator) for Q2 of this year is Q2 of last year, then the statistics are all relative to the corresponding quarter of last year. A simple averaging of the two numbers does not tell us anything unless Q1 and Q2 of last year have similar numbers. For example, we should not average 27% of 1000 and 3% of 100 would to get 15%.

    If the baseline/reference is the end of the last quarter of the last year (fixed or a constant) baseline then a simple averaging to get 15% is understandable and explainable. 27% of 100 + 3% of 100 would yield 15%.This may be the “annualized Rate” of PLT..

    The GOCB needs to provide more detail behind his numbers.

    Like

  • So what do these figures mean ? Just what we all know. The Barbados economy will get worse for the forseeable future.
    Farming and fishing. Those of you who have land or a boat will live.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Well it is not the annualized rate, but it is easier mathematics.
    You don’t have to hurt your head with the 0.75=3 x 3/12 or the 6.75 =27×3/12 (3 months out of 12 months)
    15=(6.75+0.75)X2 (two six months period)
    And you thought the GOCB was bad

    Like

  • So what do these figures mean?
    I don’t have a clue, but I find it to be a good mental exercise.

    Like

  • GAIA and the few hotels that are open, almost deserted.

    Meanwhile, the unemployed locals are enjoying the beach at the taxpayers’ expense instead of starting a business.

    Like

  • @ David August 7, 2020 8:05 AM

    Simon Naitram made a good remark.

    Most of the money earned in tourism stays outside the country.

    Barbadians will forever remain backward and poor with tourism.

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    Metric Wizards
    What is it that you are trying to calculate ?

    Like

  • 🙂 How the 15% was derived 🙂

    Like

  • You cannot read? It is not based on a simple average.

    t’s not a simple average. Most of our economic activity takes place in quarter 1 and 2. In fact they are pretty close in terms in weighting hence why the cumulative decline appears to be just a simple weighted average. However, the Bank calculates economic activity for each quarter based on indicators, and then compares the growth relative to the previous year.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU at 7 :29 PM

    That seems pellucid to me and rational. Why is this second guessing going on? Surely whatever metric is used the economy has declined significantly from 2019. And there is nothing surprising about it.

    Like

  • @David

    “What about the faculty of business at Cave Hill?”

    Do you understand the Saying/Quote SHOOT YOURSELF IN THE FOOT, this for Cave Hill is similar to suicide, not likely to happen.

    The HAND THAT FEED YOU is sacred.

    Like

  • BU Bloggers, wake up and understand, BULLSHIT BAFFLES BRAINS compiled by UWI & CBB, no sense wasting time trying to figure out the numbers, they’ve been prepared to be obscure and meaninglessness.

    Forensic accounting is impossible when the forecast projections and numbers are delibertly obscure.

    Like

  • @Wily Coyote August 7, 2020 8:53 PM

    Are you on that plantation called Barbados right now? Have you ever gone through the insane COVID protocol?

    The fact is there may be a handful of tourists on the island. Of course we must not count the windrushers and national returnees here. They cost the island more than they bring money in.

    The fact is that Barbados is looking like a haunted house now. The locals are either hanging out on the beach or at the bar with rum instead of starting businesses. So much for the BLM’s Business Creation Initiative.

    Ergo: the numbers of the central bank are heavily whitewashed, if not manipulated, to maintain the illusion of prosperity among the naive masses. At the latest when the payment moratorium on rents and mortgages is lifted, they will face judgment day. Many locals think that the moratorium is equivalent to a debt cut. This is going to be a rude awakening.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Tron August 7, 2020 9:36 PM “Many locals think that the moratorium is equivalent to a debt cut.”

    This is a BIG FAT LIE.

    NOBODY, NOBODY thinks that the debt moratorium is a debt cut. We know that the great white banks, unlike Good does NOT forgive us our debts.

    My bank offered me a moratorium. I did not take it. In fact I had to write and call them and demand that they continue to take their payments.

    My old man who finished schooling at age 11 taught us “if you can’t pay one week’s debt, how do you expect to be able to pay two week’s debt?

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Cuhdear Bajan August 7, 2020 10:22 PM

    You are by far smarter than the average! 🙂

    Anyway, you will also agree with me that people who are six months behind with their debts do not get off that easily. Once the moratorium ends, the big blow comes.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Wuh happen to the measly ten percent govt promised the govt workers
    Guess that disappeared as the Boss program took over meaning less at hand disposable income for these workers
    The financial situation for most barbadians is in dire straits yet govt refuses to put disposable income in the peoples hand to help stimulate the economy and keep local business from falling off the deep end
    Govt concentration on bringing tourist to our shores was handed another blow
    Which now begs the question where is the plan B ready prepared to stimulate the barbados economy
    Please dont tell me about projects in the pipe line

    Liked by 1 person

  • Oops correction five percent

    Like

  • Atherley Baulkes at Millions for Consultants

    These folks are going to be getting what $840 000, that is a lot of money. One would have to wonder how far you are going to be taking this matter. This money will cover a certain
    period but are there further payments to be made? And for how long a period do we expect to be involved in this arrangement with this consultant,” the Opposition Leader said

    Like

  • @ Wily
    “BU Bloggers, wake up and understand, BULLSHIT BAFFLES BRAINS compiled by UWI & CBB, no sense wasting time trying to figure out the numbers, they’ve been prepared to be obscure and meaninglessness.”

    Agree with you 100% here. Pure rigmarole. But this is the kind of cloudy, confused thinking which the local sheeple love and on which the politicians/ czars/ consultants/ advisors thrive.

    Liked by 1 person

  • SENIOR MANAGEMENT

    Mr. Cleviston L. Haynes, MA (Econ.) Governor
    Mr. Alwyn Jordan, MSc Deputy Governor
    Mr. Michael D. Carrington, F.C.C.A., MBA Deputy Governor (Ag.)
    Mr. Elson A. Gaskin, LLB (UWI), L.E.C., MBA, M.I.C.B.S., JP Secretary to the Board
    Ms. Celeste J. Wood, MSc, MBA Advisor
    Ms. Michelle Doyle Lowe, BSc, MPhil, CFA Advisor

    DIRECTORS

    Mr. Philmore Thorne, BSc, F.C.C.A, MBA Financial Controller (Ag.)
    Ms. Cheryl Greenidge BSc MBA Director, Bank Supervision
    Ms. Julia A. Weekes, BSc, CFA. Director, Banking, Currency and Investments
    Mr. Charles Briggs BSc, MBA, CEng Director, Facilities Management
    Mr. Ian Collymore, MSc Director, Foreign Exchange and Export Credit
    Ms. Pamela Arthur, BA, MSc Director, Human Resources
    Mr. Steve A. Vaughn, F.C.C.A., C.I.A., F.C.A., MBA Director, Internal Audit
    Mr. Peter deC. Rochester, MBA Director (Ag.), Management Information Systems
    Mr. Anton Belgrave, MA (Econ) FRM Director, Research & Economic Analysis Department
    Ms. Janice D. Marshall, MBA Director, Strategic Planning and Risk Management

    DEPUTY DIRECTORS

    Mr. Roger Gumbs, CGA, CFSA. Deputy Financial Controller (Ag.)
    Ms. Tamara Hurley, BSc, MBA Deputy Director, Bank Supervision
    Ms. Jennifer Clarke-Murrell, MSc Deputy Director (Ag.), Bank Supervision
    Ms. Shari Lorde Richards, MSc Deputy Director (Ag.), Bank Supervision
    Ms. Debbie Briggs, BSc, F.C.C.A. Deputy Director, Banking, Currency & Investments
    Ms. Octavia O. Gibson, BA, MSc, JP, PMP Deputy Director, Banking, Currency & Investments
    Ms. Novaline F. Brewster, MSc, JP Chief, Corporate Communications
    Ms. Sheryl Peter-Kirton, MSc Chief, Digital Programming
    Mr. Hartley O. Jordan, MBA Deputy Director, Facilities Management
    Ms. Wilma Belgrave BSc, ACIS Deputy Director, Foreign Exchange and Export Credit
    Ms. Sadie P. O. Dixon, LLB, LL.M., L.E.C. Legal Counsel
    Ms. Josephine Haywood, BSc Deputy Director, Management Information Systems
    Mr. Vincent Grosvenor, MSc Deputy Director (Ag.), Management Information Systems
    Mr. Darrin Downes, MA (Econ), LLB, L.E.C. Chief Economist
    Ms. Angela Skeete, MA Chief, Information Services

    Like

  • What I find intriguing is that the “growth” in foreign reserves is not solely attributable to borrowings.

    We are told tourism needs to be restructured so it can earn foreign exchange (net).

    Sugar is insignificant these days.

    Manufacturing is non existent.

    Construction will consume foreign exchange.

    So where does the growth in foreign reserves originate?

    Off shore business aka money laundering perhaps?

    Like

  • So funny in an unbelievable way that his govt all but handed millions of dollars to the big Cruise Industry giants under the Humanatarian policy now the Trump administration has step in and close all hopes of govt receiving any dividends in near future from the Cruise industry
    Meanwhile the big Cruise Industry will receive their payout from the USA govt stimulate checks and the insurance industry while barbados economy continues to sink into quick sand
    Somebody should have told this headless clueless bunch that good intentions does not pay bills and big Corporations understand the true meaning of the bottom line
    Barbados economy in Covid time needed help
    Most with certain the Cruise line had their plan B all mapped out which would have helped them to make it all the way to to shores without barbados govt having to open the treasury and hand some of the taxpayers money off to the Industry

    Like

  • @John

    You listened to the Governor or read the report? You realize he touched on the matter you however preferred to speculate?

    Like

  • @David

    What people have to realise is that Covid hit us at the end of the winter tourist season, so obviously reserves will be high as we had nearly 3 months of a decent winter season. Also remeber a considerable amount of those reserves are made up from borrowed money. They are not therefore net reserves.

    High reserves though do not always signal a good economy. If you have high reserves and no demand for them due to a stagnant economy, you still aint no where good. What makes our situation dangerous especially in the private sector, is that businesses went into covid weak after 10 years of no growth. This has made them vulnerable and it is my view that by October we will have more layoffs as a result.

    Based on this it would be the 3rd quarter report from the governor that will show the true picture.

    Like

  • @John A

    Is that what the Governor said? It is just one measure to be factored in the scheme of things.

    Like

  • @David

    The Gov gave us the figures but did not venture too deep into the pros and cons as that was not his purpose on that occasion. I differ from many here as i see the responsibility to translate the report falling on the shoulders of those who want our vote and the media.

    Like

  • @John A

    You want to buy in to the politicians version of the Central Bank data?

    Liked by 1 person

  • @David
    yours@6.06sm
    Sure got a lot of Chiefs in that bunch

    Like

  • @Sargeant

    Separation of duty and all that jazz, you know how it goes.

    >

    Like

  • Funny when the Central bank gov was under the dlp administration anything he said was quickly dismissed by the blp yardfowls and David
    Now as if night has turned into day the gov. mouthings are mostly welcomed with open arms by the hypocrites
    Only a few days ago the gov said the economy had stabilized
    Now a few days later he says the economy is going down hell without wheels
    Which one is it gov
    Stabilization or devastation

    Like

  • William Skinner

    Life is very funny. Here we are engrossed in calculating percentages. In the mean while:
    Atherley baulks at millions paid to consultants
    Leader of the Opposition Bishop Joseph Atherley on Friday lambasted the Government for paying out close to $47 million dollars in fees to consultants.
    He opposed the House of Assembly Standing Finance Committee’s approval of a $314,000 supplementary for technical assistance consultancy fees for the Government’s senior economic advisor Dr Kevin Greenidge.
    Atherley, who had earlier agreed to a $840,000 pay-out to consultants who are helping Government comply with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines, strongly objected to the supplementary to the Estimates for Dr Greenidge, a Barbadian economist on secondment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
    The Opposition Leader said: “This Government criticised the last administration for the multiple millions spent on consultancy fees which was about $20 million or so and has gone upward to $47 million in consultancy fees.
    “We just finished debating a resolution which spoke to the payment of $840 000 in fees and I supported that one. When these people are taken on the people of Barbados aren’t even sure what they are doing.”
    He added: “I don’t have a problem with Dr Greenidge, he seems to be a brilliant Barbadian. The brief interactions I have had with him suggested that he is a fine young man. I do have to come to the conclusion that he does not always understand all the political nuances operating around him in terms of policy decisions.”
    Yet, the St Michael West MP said he strongly objected to the amount and declared the money was not justified.
    He said: “$314,000 for one consultant for the next year and in making the presentation we say it is a simple and straightforward matter; no it isn’t so simple and straightforward. I think the cost must be justified.”
    He pointed out that Government cannot appear to be saving one way and spending in another.
    “We just fired four of them because the Cabinet could not carry the costs; four Government ministers and a parliamentary secretary,” Bishop Atherley said. “You come in here and you are asking the Parliament of Barbados to vote for money towards this cause.”
    “I am saying you can’t start by saying it is a simple and straightforward matter in a context where you fired four ministers to cut cost, in a context where Government’s purse is seriously constrained, in a context where thousands of Barbadians are out of work and where more are predicted to lose their jobs if you listen to the voice of the head of the private sector and the head of the Central Bank.”
    And although he did not object to the earlier supplementary, to cover the fees of a consultancy contract between the Government and the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists, Atherley still commented on the amount that was approved.
    “These folks are going to be getting what $840 000, that is a lot of money. One would have to wonder how far you are going to be taking this matter. This money will cover a certain period but are there further payments to be made? And for how long a period do we expect to be involved in this arrangement with this consultant,” the Opposition Leader said.
    (IMC) Barbados Today

    @ Hal
    You talk about “endng in tears”. You better learn to laugh real fast !

    Like

  • @David

    No not at all I want the opposition who want my vote to do their dam job and break down the report for the benefit of the public. Likewise any other interest groups should feel free to do the same.

    Like

  • @John A

    It has to be the job of all stakeholders in civil society to contribute to the well being of the society.

    Liked by 1 person

Join in the discussion, you never know how expressing your view may make a difference.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s