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The following comment was posted by BU commenter yallsmall to the blog COVID 19 Challenges for SIDs – A Lack of Discipline Exposed. An interesting exchange which probes the urgent need to define a relevant strategy to effectively fight COVID 19

David, Barbados Underground


Those posts were an attempt to publicize what I think might be the most important misconception by the Epidemiological community as well as the Politicians in this whole global Pandemic situation.

The most recent pandemics or near-pandemics in the world have been caused by coronaviruses. Reducing or eliminating the spread of these viruses require the use of very old techniques used with a mix of new ones. The science of Virology has modernized the tools that are used for designing protocols for control as well as make the visualization of the pathogens and their interaction with host cells whether human or non-human more apparent. The study of relevant aspects of the pathogen (e.g. Covid-19); the host (man); and how the pathogen spreads and infects the host (e.g. if vectors are important and how so) as well as the determination of the environmental factors that assist in or detracts from the rate of spread.

It has long been known that most Coronaviruses attacking humans are spread by droplets as well as aerosols. Droplets from coughs do not travel far under ordinary circumstances but aerosols produced by the rapid drying out of droplets could travel several times the 6 ft limit that has been determined for droplets.

If it is true that Covid-19 spreads by aerosols it would require a significant reworking of the 6ft distancing rule and suggest that that rule might have inadvertently contributed to a significant proportion of the horrendous carnage that Covid-19 has caused around the world so far.

The Czech authorities have had a relatively good outcome, so far, in their war against the spread of Covid-19. They appear to attribute this mainly to the universal use of Masks. The US has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to recommend the voluntary use of low quality masks. It is quite possible that the universal use of good quality masks by the total population might fill a large part of the void between the suppression of aerosols and the 6ft space.

There are many aspects of this area that could promote a good wide ranging BU discussion.

Relevant links:


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178 responses to “COVID 19 Probe – Is 6′ far Enough to Dodge Aerosols?”

  1. Dishonest Bajans Avatar
    Dishonest Bajans

    UPP expresses concerns over COVID-19 charity

    Recently the incorporation documents for a non-profit company named COVID-19 Relief and Recovery (Barbados) Inc. were circulated. Along with these documents were two letters, one which purported to be from Prime Minister Mia Mottley and the other from Chairman of the non-profit Andrew Mallalieu. No one has disputed these documents.

    Aside from Andrew Mallalieu, the other directors according to the documents are Mark Maloney, Sir Paul Altman and Barry Gale Q.C.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/04/11/upp-expresses-concerns-over-covid-19-charity/

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Not a word on this very interesting.


  2. @ Dishonest Bajans

    It seems charity in Barbados can only be for certain groups. I am sure ordinary people will pour their hard-earned money in to this charity. Why is the president associated with this lot, apart from political opportunism? Is this another example of the Bajan Condition?


  3. The writer of the post has a valid point in relation to actual between individuals that is required.


  4. David

    Here’s the other link which should be read to understand the relevance of the chapeau

    https://scitechdaily.com/indoor-precautions-essential-to-stem-airborne-covid-19-the-world-should-face-the-reality/


  5. Thanks, updated.


  6. It is easy to question the six foot rule.

  7. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    David, the author said that he the 6 ft rule was “… the most important misconception by the Epidemiological community as well as the Politicians in this whole global Pandemic situation.”

    From where I sit as a layman the 6 ft rule is but one of several incomprehensible acts by the Epidemiological community [and] Politicians… it may in fact be the MOST important public bit of disinformation but taken together with the ‘raft’ of other things sometimes it seems that we are truly drifting on a sea of official madness.

    A sneeze is known to spread very rapidly – intensity of as 100 mph – and reach as far as 25 ft for the finest droplets. This is not new research … so as much as the 6 ft guide is practical for the heavy droplets from a sneeze or maintaining a good non-sneeze/non-cough proximity it also does nothing for the bus-drivers or retail food assistant dealing with a sneezing or coughing person.

    Thus despite the knowledge from the SARS and MERS outbreaks and the impact of and on the respiratory system; the spread via ‘aerosolizing’ and possible rapid contagion ONLY four or five nations in the world handled this pandemic with any semblance of competence.

    All in all all epidemiologists and politicians are very aware that “Left unchecked, such outbreaks can spread rapidly across the globe with significant adverse impact on economic and social stability” and yet all the most dynamic and well developed nations in the world conspired to act like virgins on their wedding night…breathless with excitement to perform well but totally clueless of what exactly to do…The amazing thing is that they were ALL married before with grown children.

    Who is fooling whom here!


  8. @Dee Word

    What is the 6 foot rule logic? Can you unpack it for us to support the author?


  9. @ HAL

    @ Dishonest Bajans

    It seems charity in Barbados can only be for certain groups. I am sure ordinary people will pour their hard-earned money in to this charity. Why is the president associated with this lot, apart from political opportunism? Is this another example of the Bajan Condition?

    Xxxxxxxxxxxx

    SURE YOU ARE OBSERVING THE SLANT ON BU BY THE HEAD HONCHO.

    SEEMS TO BE ONE HAND WASHING ANOTHER TO CONTINUE THE MADNESS ON THE ISLAND.

    KEEP OBSERVING


  10. Not if you are in a room with air conditioning running, or where a stand or ceiling fan are running. Because they distribute every breath, cough, and sneeze throughout the room. They stick the virus to walls and just about every other surface.

  11. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @David, the author dismisses the recommendation as being ineffectual in all circumstances …Nothing deep to unpack really.

    The research has shown that heavy droplets from a sneeze or those of a cough can travel up to about 6 feet or so.. and thus that’s the base standard the officials have publicized…however as the various scientists have extolled here the smaller (aresolized) droplets from a sneeze can travel well beyond that.

    In simple terms therefore ‘keep you donkey at home’ because you could surely get infected further away than this 6ft rule and even well after the person has vacated the area in any environment where someone is sneezing or coughing heavily/uncontrollably.

    Has this misinformation led to greater spread of the disease.. very likely. I had my mask weeks ago as the official palaver was totally nonsensical on that point. TOTALLY.

    We do not have to be scientists to understand and read data. It has been known for a long time that germs can ‘fly on the wind’ and visualizations of the power of a sneeze goes back many years … thus it boggles the mind that folks needed to be reminded that a sneeze can disseminate far and wide well beyond two long arm-lengths and retain its potent germs.


  12. @Nathan

    The scenario you described is an outlier scenario?


  13. dpD;

    re. your 4:44 pm post. It was evident to most thinking people for weeks now that sneezing could spread the virus much further than the 6 ft distance mandated in much of the governmental orders. The change by CDC to allow use of masks by the general public was due to a realization that the fiction could not last much longer as it was being challenged by the results of practically all the research in this area. The retention of the proviso that almost anything could be used as a mask flew in the face of the published efficacy of the N95 masks while proscribing those masks from anyone other than health professionals was realistic in the face of the shortage of N95 masks. No one however seemed to realize that masks that approached the efficacy of the N95 masks could be made in local communities by the simple addition of a Hepa filter or even a sheet of paper towelling.

    Our Governments need not wait for the lead of the USA CDC to start a programme of local manufacture of good quality masks that would be reasonably effective in reducing the aerosol and droplet spread of Covid-19 from infected individuals in close spaces. It might even eventually allow the reduction of the 6 ft rule and therefore the restarting of small gatherings by the end of May and some loosening of the restrictions in banking, grocery days, etc..

    re. the Barbados situation. The guestmates thrown up by the Czar are indeed guestimates only with no obvious anchor in research or practice. The figures given do not reflect random populations nor indeed do they accord with the data published so far, or the data that could be derived from the US or other countries from their published figures. Hence the figure of about 100 possible deaths from Covid 19 does not offer a reasonable guide to what is likely to happen. The current fact of no or little community spread, allied with the trending downwards in the daily incidence graphs, suggests that more data is needed before any fairly accurate estimate of likely deaths could be rationally developed. The Barbados data, as sporadically published, still suggests that after a month of lockdown and curfew, there is still only linear and not exponential growth in the daily incidence figures.

  14. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    The 6ft separation works outside but will be less effective in buildings with poor air circulation and air quality problems.

    In the outside air, the virus has to fight against being dispersed and reducing in concentration and the sun’s UV rays killing it. Indoors, virus aerosol transmission will be easier due to enclosed spaces and air constantly being recirculated.

    These epidemiologists are either too dumb to know or have been lying to us.

    “We detected coronavirus in respiratory droplets and aerosols in 3 of 10 (30%) and 4 of 10 (40%) of the samples collected without face masks, respectively, but did not detect any virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols collected from participants wearing face masks…”

    That quote is from a Nature article Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

    Why you think the authorities have finally started to come around to telling people wear cloth masks in public.

    By the way, the much talked about N95 masks are not perfect filters either. They only filter 95%, hence the 95 in N95.


  15. Sweden should answer the question.

    Some say their approach will backfire.

    We will see.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/


  16. Dr fauci talked about it on CNN a few days ago. 6FT is the minium recommended distance according to him. but aerosol/ sneeze demonstration demonstrated that particles can go further – especially according to the strength of the sneeze.

    head back and come forward at achoo = particles go a loth further.


  17. May have bee Dr Gupta instead of Dr Fauci


  18. The good news is you can find some quality masks with the right material from local seamstresses on the island, they are working to provide essential face coverings, many more will put their sewing machines into production….many of them always have material on hand, of course a shortage will also have to be expected as they run out of imported cloth.

    … don’t have to worry about a 2 metre distance if your face is covered and droplets cannot fly…and as long as your head and hands are also covered, there should be no worry about infection…period.


  19. Whoa Wura! The science still has to be done before anyone can reliably declare that the public can remove any component of the suite of conttrol measures. Keep adhering to the 6ft rule until the authorities say it is safe to jettison it. i.e. the masks must be an agreed percentage effective in removing 5micron particles.


  20. What are the thoughts about Jamaica refusal to use the anti viral drug created by Cuba and the Chinese?

  21. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David Bu at 8 :09 AM

    Have the tests of their effectiveness been replicated any where? Exactly which stage of the COVID infectious process are they antiviral?


  22. @Vincent

    Answer with a question, how many deaths in China/Cuba compared to US, UK, Italy, Spain and others?

    On Fri, Apr 17, 2020 at 1:19 PM Barbados Underground wrote:

    >

  23. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU at 9:31 AM

    I am seeking evidence of the effectiveness of these antiviral drugs. Perhaps that is the reservation which the Jamaica Health Authorities have also.What responsible government wants to use its citizens as guinea pigs?


  24. Even Donald Trump has advised that “not to lift restrictions until they reach a 14-day period in which CASE NUMBERS FALL STEADILY AND HOSPITALS ARE NOT OVERWHELMED.”

  25. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    Just a timely reminder. Statistics/ numbers do not speak for themselves. They are used in a model to verify or deny correlation. In other words they assist in rejecting a null hypothesis or hunch.


  26. ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (ECLAC)

    SUBREGIONAL HEADQUARTERS FOR THE CARIBBEAN

    News Release

    17 April 2020

    Economic impact of novel Coronavirus in the Caribbean

    As governments across the Caribbean implement responses to prevent, , mitigate, and manage the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and its consequences, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the United Nations system and key regional organizations, has embarked on a careful assessment to estimate the economic and social impact of the virus on the economies of the subregion. The study will serve as a resource to inform governments’ decision-making with respect to policy options to tackle the fall-out from the COVID-19 pandemic in the Caribbean.

    COVID-19 is profoundly affecting the way of life of Caribbean people and will inevitably have a major impact on the economies of the subregion. With many Caribbean countries already shouldering an unsustainable public debt, the expected loss in in government revenue and anticipated increase in demand for social expenditure will need to be informed by robust data and solid analysis.

    In response to this need, ECLAC Caribbean along with UN and other regional partners are conducting an analysis to ascertain the likely impact of the pandemic on the economies of the subregion as a whole. Entitled `Economic Impact of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the Caribbean’, the study will provide estimates of the economic cost of policy actions that have been taken in response to COVID-19.

    The analysis will focus on select sectors, namely: health; tourism; agriculture, including fisheries and livestock; education; transportation, with particular attention given to aviation and shipping; and energy and oil and gas. For each sector, the impact assessment will present the socioeconomic costs related to loss of revenue, additional expenditures, temporary unemployment and the general welfare of households as a result of COVID-19.

    The study will also anticipate the projected cost of further responses recommended by global and regional organizations as effective measures against the disease, thereby providing Caribbean decision-makers with a priority listing of additional cost-effective socioeconomic initiatives that the subregion could implement to deal with COVID-19.

    The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020, and on 11 March 2020 upgraded it to the level of a pandemic. Since then, to curtail the spread of the virus, and in an effort to prioritize national protection of public health during this global pandemic, a number of Caribbean countries have imposed varying degrees of travel restriction and border closure, including the prohibition of cruise ship docking; the cessation of flights by major airlines; restriction on or prohibition of public gathering; and the closure of schools, restaurants, and bars.

    The study is expected to become publicly available in the coming weeks.

    For further information, please contact Alexander Voccia at alexander.voccia@eclac.org or Denise Balgobin at denise.balgobin@eclac.org. Telephone: (868) 224-8067/224-8075.

  27. @WURA-War-on-U April 17, 2020 3:58 AM “The good news is you can find some quality masks with the right material from local seamstresses on the island.”

    You need to check the social media pages of the Bajan seamstresses. You can get a black mask for a funeral or a frilly lace and ribbon trimmed one for a wedding if you insist on being married now, pink and blue ones for little boys and girls, or some to match the color of your work clothes.


  28. David;

    Could you post the reference URLs re Cuba-China anti-viral drug?


  29. Jamaica not using Cuba’s antiviral drug for now

    https://buzz-caribbean.com/app/uploads/2020/04/dr-christopher-tufton-parliament-1024×666.jpg

    Health Minister Dr Christopher Tufton has said that Jamaica will not be using the Cuban antiviral drug Interferon Alpha 2B to treat persons battling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
    He said discussions would be had with the Cuban authorities to get more details about the antiviral drug, which is one of several being used by the Chinese to fight the new coronavirus.

    The drug is said to have proven effective for viruses with characteristics similar to those of COVID-19.
    However, Tufton said that an assessment was done, and given that the drug was not approved globally.

    https://buzz-caribbean.com/news/jamaica-avoiding-cubas-antiviral-drug-for-now/


  30. After adhering to the curfew rules for the past two weeks , I venture forth to observe the happenings. As usual Bay St. was mostly devoid of vehicular traffic. I cross in front of the Empire cinema and entered Jordan lane. There has been no improvement in the size of the lines. Lines snake from the junction of Jordan’s and Nelson street all the way to the super market itself. There is even a line on the lane behind the Fire Station and the supermarket. Continued over the river by Saving Plus. The line stretches from it in both directions(towards the mini-bus and towards the direction of the bridge. Cross over by Barnes building. I am no longer easily surprised but Popular supermarket has me awe-struck: it has outdone itself. The line stretches back to St. Michael Row and snakes back to the junction of Marhill. St. It continues down the entirety of Marhill St. and diverges into parts: one section continues past the pharmacy towards the watering hole located in a semi-cul-de-sac; the other section meanders towards the Old City and makes a sharp turn toward the direction of Roebuck St. The situation is no better in Swan St, There is a line stretching from the Sewing World all away round by the Sports and games Shop. The line from Cherish Stretches back towards the junction of Swan St. and snakes into Lucas St. There are three members of the Constabulary keeping order. One can see that they wish they were some where else. One of them is on the portly side ;he has a harried expression on his sweating face as he chides the crowd not to attempt to jump their position to in the line . He threatens to give the a permanent curfew at Dodds if there is any trouble There is a very long line by Jones’ pharmacy. I wanted to get some non-absorbent cotton wool to use in making a mask. I have two that one of my brothers gave, but there are flimsy. The strap came off one of them and it has never been used. I am not worried about wearing a mask but certain businesses won’t allow entry unless one is wearing one. I proceed by the chicken place: not much of a crowd(about five people)bought some chicken just to top up. Scotty has a line decide that it can wait until Tuesday. Cross the street I pull out my I.D. and the lady at the gate wanted to know why I did that: tells me to go straight in. It is apparently my grey/white hair that oils the way. Leave Cheapside market and proceed in the direction of Shop Mart: It is 8.29 AM and the place is not opened. I was under the impression that businesses were supposed to open from 8.00AM. Proceeded down the road and passed the Advocate: there is a sign stating that it is closed. Pass the Nation and proceed to the Supermarket belonging to the Goddard’s. There usually is much of a crowd at this place. today there is a line but it isn’t very long.. Decide I will pay a visit Sunday or Tuesday. Proceeded towards Scotty. The line has decreased but I do not join it. Enter into Suttle St. The rum shop at the junction with Reid St. is doing clandestine business. I had a good laugh. The two half-doors are closed giving the appearance that the place is shut. People enter and close back the door.so that nothing looks untoward. bought some onions: the price has gone up by twenty-five cents to $1,75/lb. Proceed to retrace my steps , there is only a slight reduction in the size of the crowds. The Super market experiment has been a dismal failure. In some cases there is an obvious attempt at social distancing and in others no attempt at all.

    .


  31. Correction Goddard’s. There usually is not much of a crowd at this place. :

  32. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @David, The minster answered your query with the commentary: *”… discussions would be had with the Cuban authorities to get more details about the antiviral drug, which is one of ***several being used by the Chinese to fight the new coronavirus.*** […] However, Tufton said that an assessment was done, ***and given that the drug was not approved globally*** [they need to assess it carefully before being sued for any deaths from its use].

    And that leads me to 2 other quick comments: 1) The Brits were highly embarrassed recently when they purchased over $20M in antibody testing kits (a pin prick style test kit was the expectation) from the Chinese and then lo and behold THEY DDNT WORK as expected!

    And 2) They has been some excitement about another antivral drug called Remdesvivir which apparently had much positives treating SARS and MERS and is also showing good results now.

    And to a tangential point to to the Minister being cautions about getting too far ‘down the wicket’ on the Cuba/China drug. …. It was reported that the transit authority in NY (MTA) is going to award a payment of $500,000 to surviving families of workers who died due to COVID-19. I was astonished but that amount. …. I know that payouts for workers who die on the job and whose deaths can be linked to possible employer negligence can be very high (after legal suits) …so I interpret these amounts as a tactic admission of “we the MTA messed up, lets not go to court”

    …NO government wants to be in that ‘payout’ predicament …it could be disastrous!

  33. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU at 10 :28 AM

    Thanks for the upload. These considerations are important elements in the decision- making equation. One does not manage by trial and error.


  34. @Vincent and Dee Word

    You should convey your advice to Trump given his advocacy for a lupus drug.

  35. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    You may notice I do not comment on Trumpian interventions. I consider Barbados to be my primary concern and CARICOM countries my secoundary.


  36. Sometime in the not too distant future an adult needs to balance the loss of five lives correctly or incorrectly attributed to Covid-19 against the 10’s of thousands of lives the shutdown is affecting.

    No work means no pay.

    No pay means no rent, no mortgage and possibly no food and bare pressure.

    Bare pressure means suicides, addiction …. deaths!!

    Is it worth it?


  37. … it may be 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 and if you believe the Czar’s projection 100.

    Will it be worth it?


  38. @ Quaker John

    Talking about the Czar, how is the president recuperating from her medical procedure? Has she returned t o work full time, or just came off her sick bed to announce the names of two of her Covid economic council? Who are the other members?
    I believe the president is faced with a tough test and is running away.


  39. For those who wonder what non-absorbent cotton wool is, the following throws some light on the topic.:
    .
    If absorbent cotton is used during sterilization (autoclaving) sterile conditions will not be maintained as cotton will absorb water and microbes will swim from outside to inside. However, non absorbent cotton does not get wet and chances of contamination are decreased significantly.. In other words using non-absorbent cotton wool in a mask precludes the mask from absorbing water vapor when one exhales, thereby decreasing the probability of microbes being taken up.


  40. @ Robert

    Be careful giving David info on your whereabouts he got a habit of sending de police for you when he know where you are!


  41. @ Hal April 17, 2020 1:36 PM

    She must be doing rather well, since there was a video-linked conference with other leaders in the region to formulate a joint response to the Wuhan virus ( note I am not being politically correct). According to the news she was part of the whole thing.


  42. @John A

    You and Dr. Lucas are in safe hands with the blogmaster.


  43. @ David.

    Are we still at the stage where no community spread has presented? Didn’t hear the latest update.


  44. @ Robert

    But is she OFFICIALLY back at work, or only coming out for cameo appearances. It appears as if she was more seriously ill than she has said. Look at how transparent your man Boris has been.
    By the way, I note your slander of China.


  45. Hal Austin
    April 17, 2020 1:36 PM

    @ Quaker John
    Talking about the Czar, how is the president recuperating from her medical procedure? Has she returned t o work full time, or just came off her sick bed to announce the names of two of her Covid economic council? Who are the other members?
    I believe the president is faced with a tough test and is running away.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Just watch Trump and follow!!


  46. @ Hal April 17, 2020 2:55 PM

    “By the way, I note your slander of China.”

    What slander/I acknowledge that mistakes are made doing research work. I qualified what I said by saying if indeed it was caused in the lab, that it would not have been done intentionally and that other countries have had accidents.. If you are referring to the fact that I said that at the level we are dealing with here, mistakes are not acceptable. An accident is some what different than a mistake. You are dealing with PH.D’s and post doctoral people, who would have worked in some of the best labs in the world: and who would have been exposed to the best safety practices. So that even though the US reduced its level of interest, there should be enough initiative to know what safety-guidelines should be used. After all, some of the microbes and their toxins are very, very lethal. It is a case of protecting one’s life. That is a great incentive to follow correct procedures. The outbreak started in Wuhan, that is a fact, not slander..
    .


  47. @ John A April 17, 2020 1:55 PM

    Today was assigned to surnames including L. So I was within the law.


  48. @ Robert

    My apologies. I thought you were playing a tune from the Trump song book. It was just a Chinese experiment that got out of control.


  49. Germany next week

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