COVID 19 Probe – Is 6′ far Enough to Dodge Aerosols?

The following comment was posted by BU commenter yallsmall to the blog COVID 19 Challenges for SIDs – A Lack of Discipline Exposed. An interesting exchange which probes the urgent need to define a relevant strategy to effectively fight COVID 19

David, Barbados Underground


Those posts were an attempt to publicize what I think might be the most important misconception by the Epidemiological community as well as the Politicians in this whole global Pandemic situation.

The most recent pandemics or near-pandemics in the world have been caused by coronaviruses. Reducing or eliminating the spread of these viruses require the use of very old techniques used with a mix of new ones. The science of Virology has modernized the tools that are used for designing protocols for control as well as make the visualization of the pathogens and their interaction with host cells whether human or non-human more apparent. The study of relevant aspects of the pathogen (e.g. Covid-19); the host (man); and how the pathogen spreads and infects the host (e.g. if vectors are important and how so) as well as the determination of the environmental factors that assist in or detracts from the rate of spread.

It has long been known that most Coronaviruses attacking humans are spread by droplets as well as aerosols. Droplets from coughs do not travel far under ordinary circumstances but aerosols produced by the rapid drying out of droplets could travel several times the 6 ft limit that has been determined for droplets.

If it is true that Covid-19 spreads by aerosols it would require a significant reworking of the 6ft distancing rule and suggest that that rule might have inadvertently contributed to a significant proportion of the horrendous carnage that Covid-19 has caused around the world so far.

The Czech authorities have had a relatively good outcome, so far, in their war against the spread of Covid-19. They appear to attribute this mainly to the universal use of Masks. The US has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to recommend the voluntary use of low quality masks. It is quite possible that the universal use of good quality masks by the total population might fill a large part of the void between the suppression of aerosols and the 6ft space.

There are many aspects of this area that could promote a good wide ranging BU discussion.

Relevant links:

177 comments

  • David
    April 19, 2020 8:29 AM

    @John
    Hindsight is wonderful isn’t it. A reminder we are still in unknown territory.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I said that long ago, that’s called foresight!!

    Its in the numbers, clear as a bell.

    Sometime in the not too distant future an adult will tell us just how much it cost the NIS to have people out of work.

    I haven’t heard peep from anyone on the NIS!!

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ John

    What do you want to hear from NIS that you have not already surmised? The NIS was not constructed to handle pandemics. It manages financial risks in normal situations. So yes it will be under stress until the country gets back to work.

    Like

  • From the Daily Mail:

    Is this proof ‘life-saving’ ventilators are actually deathtraps? Their success rate is appalling and medics are increasingly worried they may do more harm than good, disturbing report reveals
    Serious doubts have been raised about the effectiveness of ventilators
    Ventilators are a standard treatment for the deadly lung infection pneumonia
    In New York, 80 per cent of ventilated patients failed to recover

    His face contorted with worry, a young casualty doctor sends a desperate message to the world. He has watched over the beds of hundreds of coronavirus patients, and now believes they are dying because of the very treatment that is meant to save them.

    After being rushed into hospital, they are knocked out by sedatives delivered through a throat tube as a ventilator mechanically pumps their lungs to send oxygen into their bodies.

    It is a standard treatment for the deadly lung infection pneumonia, and one that was first used for Covid-19 patients in China, then in Europe and now here in Britain.

    Yet, in a frank YouTube video, the New York casualty doctor Cameron Kyle-Sidell has broken ranks with the medical establishment and warns it is wrong to use ventilators in this way.

    He states emphatically: ‘I fear this misguided treatment will lead to a tremendous amount of harm in a very short time. Covid-19 is not a pneumonia and should not be treated as one.’

    dailymail(DOT)co(DOT)uk/news/article-8230775/Is-proof-live-saving-ventilators-actually-deathtraps.html

    Well whether it is pneumonia or not, here is a method that two doctors are using with apparent success to treat even seriously ill Covid19 patients that seems to work, but it won’t turn a buck for any pharmaceutical companies, so you can depend on the medical establishment to reject their methods out of hand.

    DOCTORS TREATING COVID

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington
    April 19, 2020 8:30 PM

    @ John
    What do you want to hear from NIS that you have not already surmised? The NIS was not constructed to handle pandemics. It manages financial risks in normal situations. So yes it will be under stress until the country gets back to work.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    WOW

    Someone else that realizes the NIS is being “raided”.

    Again, is it worth it?

    Like

  • Hants
    April 19, 2020 5:17 PM

    @ Sargeant,
    Mass murder in Nova Scotia. Over 10 people killed.

    Like

    Sargeant
    April 19, 2020 5:42 PM

    @Hants
    Just heard of it, seems like he was on the rampage for hours

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Do you think these deaths will be attributed to COVID-19?

    Like

  • @ Quaker John

    You are alive. Glad to hear.

    Like

  • John
    April 19, 2020 7:53 PM

    David
    April 19, 2020 8:29 AM
    @John
    Hindsight is wonderful isn’t it. A reminder we are still in unknown territory.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I said that long ago, that’s called foresight!!
    Its in the numbers, clear as a bell.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Most densely populated city in the world is Manila with Mumbai not far behind.

    Nothing like what happened in New York.

    We are only now getting mentions of outbreaks in prisons but it doesn’t seem to be a major problem.

    It can’t be as contagious as first feared, nor as deadly.

    New York was for me always an aberration and not indicative of what would have happened in other states in the country far less countries.

    My interest has always been why and my theories are on record from early.

    It’s in the lungs!!!

    Again, that was known from the start.

    Like

  • @ Quaker John

    Is it smoking, the inhalation of motor vehicle fumes, a contaminated environment, what is it? More importantly, @Quaker John, is there a list of plantation owners in St John over the last 100 years?

    Like

  • Should doctors be testing COVID patients for Carbon Monoxide poisoning?

    The following is from the Facebook post of Dr. Robert J. Rowen MD an advocate of treating COVID patients with ozone therapy as he does in his California clinic:

    Robert J. Rowen MD
    I am copying and pasting a communication I just received that might have relevance to the clinical picture of COVID infection. His letter has two key points. One, that a vaccine for a coronavirus in animals has shown often worse pathology and even fatal consequences when infected with another coronavirus. This is important to the path our “leaders” are taking us on. Secondly, a novel thought. Patients are suffocating even with ventilators. He is suggesting that the virus might be inducing sick bodies to make carbon monoxide to dangerous levels. CO is made in the body naturally and serves a positive purpose. But as you know. High levels can be deadly, by the molecule binding to hemoglobin and denying transport of life-giving oxygen. This is an interesting read. If you know someone with COVID in ICU, it might be helpful to get the CO level checked.

    “””Im a Veterinary Surgeon who graduated from Melbourne University with a double degree ( 1st: Veterinary Science, 2nd: pathology/toxicology), I have two Masters degrees one of which is in disease surveillance (epidemiology), and I’ve been doing my PhD on epidemiology and risk assesment. I was also awarded a recent alumni achievement award from Melbourne University. I’ve been watching this outbreak since it started, and have correctly predicted its course.
    You are doing a fabulous job at slowing our curve, and I commend you on what you are doing as you have certainly bought us time.

    I have two urgent matters to bring to your attention. The first is it is unlikely a vaccination will work. Veterinarians are the only ones with a coronavirus vaccine, and what’s been found in vaccinated animals that are subjected to infection with another coronavirus often results in worse pathology and they even have fatal consequences as demonstrated in a few studies.

    This makes prevention very difficult, and vaccine efficacy will be questionable. This means the focus will need to be on treatment/cure.

    The second matter is my current disease hypothesis that may result in successful treatment of critical cases.

    I have a crazy but very plausible hypothesis, and there’s a toxicologist in the USA who has released a similar hypothesis this week, so that’s at least 2 of us that believe this is plausible. My theory is that SARS-cov2 causes an increase in endogenous (produced in our body) carbon monoxide production in the body, resulting in carbon monoxide poisoning.

    Carbon monoxide toxicity fits with everything we are seeing. It fits with the high fatalaties with comorbidities particularly diabetes, heart disease and obesity. It fits with cases overseas just dropping dead in the streets, it fits with the ground glass lung pathology seen. It fits with the symptoms, as carbon monoxide poisoning is often misdiagnosed as the flu, causes headaches, dizziness, fatigue, breathlessness. It fits with the lower than expected success with ventilated patients, as carbon monoxide actually increases in ventilated patients. It also explains the neurological signs seen in some patients, and it fits with the success seen with zinc.

    This is 100% a hypothesis, but I can’t physically test it. It’s simple though, doctors need to test for Carbon monoxide which is simple to do if they are looking for it. We aren’t looking for it, so no one is testing for it.

    Continued here:
    https://www.facebook.com/DrRobertJRowen/posts/1257804881084177?tn=K-R

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ David April 19, 2020 3:33 PM

    “Therefore the senior citizens were fighting amongst themselves at Pricesmart?”

    I do not know about Pricesmart. My brother was at Popular Spooner’s Hill. It would seem that the very elderly (80 and over and the disabled) were accompanied by much younger folks who the security guards had to admonish over their behavior. It also seems that if one is a young looking person in the early 70’s,one encounters problems with security ,who seem (even though ID’s are presented) think one is not old enough.

    Like

  • GreenMonkey

    A good post above. The suggestion about CO production needs to be followed up urgently and globally.

    David; The recent Barbados Today article on the opening of the St Lucy Northpoint facility especially re. the comments by Minister Bostic …. https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/04/19/harrison-point-isolation-facility-receives-first-patients/ ….. are of some moment re. the likelihood of further tests identifying new cases of C-19 in the next week or so, given that the last 4 days have seen no new cases the probability that the zero trend will continue seems to be marginally better than that new cases will be found from people who came into the Island about 4 weeks ago or earlier.

    Like

  • @Dr. Lucas

    Some supermarkets seem to be allowing younger persons to assist elderly relatives, others are more rigid. Another observation is that Massy and Popular are two of the popular supermarkets where there is some disorder also Pricesmart. There is opportunity for the management of these locations to work with private security and police to improve.

    Like

  • @lyallsmall

    The minister of health seems to be worried about the week people entered the island from COVID 19 hotspots and were not screened.

    Like

  • ‘Not ‘out of danger’

    No new cases in four days, but curfew conditions to stay

    MINISTER OF HEALTH Jeffrey Bostic cannot say how much longer the shutdown and curfew conditions will remain even though Barbados has had no new COVID-19 cases recorded in four days.

    He warned that even with that encouraging sign, the island might not be out of danger from the pandemic that can cause severe respiratory illnesses and death.

    Yesterday Bostic said that the decision determining the state of the country rested with the ministry from a public health perspective and with the Government from a general perspective.

    “That is not a question I am able to answer at this time. As I said, from a public health perspective, we still have work to do and there are still a lot of things that we have to do to be sure in our minds that we can give proper advice to the Government in terms of what they would be able to do,” he added.

    He was responding to a question from the media while on a tour of the Field Medical Facility set up by the Barbados Defence Force at the E.R. Walrond Clinical Skills Building of the University of the West Indies, located at Jemmott’s Lane, St Michael.

    Five deaths

    So far Barbados has had five deaths out of 75 positive cases, with 19 recoveries. There were 35 cases conducted on Saturday and yesterday the two latest recoveries went home, leaving 51 people in isolation. There have been 1 035 tests carried out by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory since February 11. To contain the spread of COVID-19, Barbados went under curfew on March 28 which moved to 24 hours a week later, with only some businesses exempted along with essential services.

    Bostic also revealed that one front line worker had earlier tested positive for the virus but that had been “dealt with”.

    “I will say to you that up to this point, we do not have any evidence except for one case earlier and that was dealt with and there are no issues going forward . . . . We had one case,” the minister said when pressed as to which front line profession had been affected.

    Bostic said there was a swab shortage but some were expected within “a week or so”, but there was an adequate number of testing kits.

    “When we are able to get some more swabs into the country that we can expand even further the amount of persons that we are testing daily, that would then give us a better idea. So we still have a couple weeks to go before we can say exactly where we are, but we are indeed encouraged by the last few days,” he said.

    Check in

    He said the appeal for travellers who entered between March 15 and 22 yielded some of the confirmed cases, but the process continued.

    “We are still reaching out to those persons and making every avenue available for persons to be able to check in with us . . . . But we know that within another two weeks or so we would be in very good position in terms of making some determination where those persons are concerned, based on the length of time they would have been on island, length of time some were in quarantine or isolation, and the contact tracing that we are doing.”

    The worrisome bunching of shoppers at supermarkets from a public health perspective was far better now, Bostic stated.

    “If we continue in this vein where people continue to maintain the social distancing and do things that they’re told to do by the public health officers the last several weeks, I think that we would be on the road . . . to [getting] out of this situation.” ( AC)

    Copyright (c) 2020 Nation Publishing Co. Limited, Edition 4/20/2020

    DR LA-TONIA ARTHUR (right) showing health care workers how their personal protection equipment should be used. This was during a tour of the Field Medical Facility set up by the Barbados Defence Force. (Picture by Nigel Browne.)[/caption]

    Like

  • David;

    Thanks for your 8:46 am post. Very informative! MInister Bostic touched all the relevant points imho.

    Like

  • Testicles may make men more vulnerable to coronavirus: study

    Sign up for our special edition newsletter to get a daily update on the coronavirus pandemic.

    The coronavirus could linger in the testicles, making men prone to longer, more severe cases of the illness, according to a new study.

    Researchers tracked the recovery of 68 patients in Mumbai, India, to study the gender disparity of the virus, which has taken a worse toll on men, according to a preliminary report posted on MedRxix, which hosts unpublished medical research papers that have not been peer reviewed.

    Dr. Aditi Shastri, an oncologist at Montefiore Medical Center in the Bronx, and her mother, Dr. Jayanthi Shastri, a microbiologist at the Kasturba Hospital for Infectious Diseases in Mumbai, said the virus attaches itself to a protein that occurs in high levels in the testicles.

    This protein, known as angiotensin converting enzyme 2, or ACE2, is present in the lungs, the gastrointestinal tract and the heart in addition to large quantities in the testicles.

    But since testicles are walled off from the immune system, the virus could harbor there for longer periods than the rest of the body, according to the study.

    The mother-daughter researchers said these findings may explain why women bounce back from the virus more quickly than men.

    They determined that the average amount of time for female patients to be cleared of the virus was four days, while men saw recoveries that on average were two days longer, the report said.“These observations demonstrate that male subjects have delayed viral clearance,” the authors wrote, adding that the testicles may be serving as “reservoirs” for the virus.

    The study may offer an explanation for reports out of Italy, South Korea and New York City that men are dying at higher rates from the virus.

    Others have suggested that men are more vulnerable because they are more likely to smoke, have high blood pressure or suffer coronary artery disease.

    Like

  • @David
    Yours@9.08am

    What a provocative headline, so what are men supposed to do? Consult a surgeon about removing the annoying (maybe that isn’t the correct word lets say life affirming) appendages? I notice the study was led by a mother/daughter team I fear for the men of their acquaintance.

    I wonder if they have recruited any volunteers to test their hypothesis, in the meanwhile I’ll await to hear from any brave person who steps forward to relate the results of the experiment.

    no me toques los cojones

    Like

  • @Sergeant

    Ouch!

    Like

  • Submitted by Bentley:

    Bentley Norville

    Did you see this video? It explains why wearing of masks can greatly reduce the transmission of the coronavirus. If everyone is wearing a mask when in public person to person transmission can be greatly reduced. This is why it should be and need to be mandatory that everyone in public wear a face mask at all times. The masks should be at least the minimum standard recommended by the CDC, ie at least 2 layers of cloth with a filter if possible. The best type of filter is one similar to a HEPA filter vacuum cleaner bag material but there are numerous other alternatives.

    https://youtu.be/rqu2I0x0UC8

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 4:49 AM

    @ Quaker John
    Is it smoking, the inhalation of motor vehicle fumes, a contaminated environment, what is it? More importantly, @Quaker John, is there a list of plantation owners in St John over the last 100 years?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Let’s see if we can use some skillful thinking.

    Mumbai has not gone the way of New York.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/asia/coronavirus-lockdown-impact-pollution-india-intl-hnk/index.html

    So simple logic would tend to indicate pollution on its own is not a major factor.

    So, you are left with the tried and tested way people have damaged their lungs, smoking.

    … and in the case of New York, 911!!

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/these-powerful-photos-show-the-bravery-and-selflessness-of

    Pretty clear conditions at Ground Zero were far worse than any cigarette smoking.

    Regarding plantation owners in St. John, the Queree Papers in the Archives details plantation ownership of every plantation in Barbados back to the 17th century.

    Stops in the 1970’s.

    Like

  • “China is the world’s most populated country, and is also the leading country in the cigarette industry. In 2014, China produced and consumed more than 30% of the cigarettes in the world. There is a strong relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and smoking behaviors.”

    Like

  • It doesn’t take a genius to figure the relationship between smoking and death.

    Like

  • John you should find this Information Interesting…

    Covid-19 Virus Conspiracy? Toxicity Ignored: Part 2 – Dr. Rashid A. Buttar

    about a month ago ·

    The level of toxicity in Wuhan was documented as far back as 2013 when people began complaining in Wuhan. Numerous reports of public outcry in 2015 culminated with BBC and CNN coverage of the mass protests in Wuhan due to the incinerator pollution garnering enough attention to gain the ear of the international community in 2016 and 2017. As recently as July 2019, more public demonstrations and clashes occurred between citizens and police due to social unrest because of the level of incinerator pollution was growing unchecked.

    Like

  • But, Mr Genius, correlation is not causation. Because an elderly person smoked as a youth does not mean s/he becomes vulnerable to CoVid-19. It is an illogical connection.
    We can make the same assumption about people who ate cou-cou as a youth. If you ate cou-cou you are likely to develop diabetes. Reminds me of doctors; they ask questions and when you reply they throw the answers back at you as a likely cause of your reported illness. If you refuse to answer silly questions you are described as difficult.
    I once had an argument with a young Indian Registrar who started telling me about West Indian lifestyles etc. I stopped him and asked him where he got that information, when he said research, I asked for the details and he got angry. It is bogus.
    I remember an Asian doctor again asking me if I had ever visited Africa; my reply was that the nearest I got to Africa was Borough Market, in South East London. He missed the joke. Southward has the largest African population in the UK. Not only have I| never visited Africa, I have no desire to do so.
    Had I said yes he would have gone on with the stereotypes of Africa and Africans. All he saw was a black man.
    @Quaker John, I know you think you have a big point. It is nonsense. What other illnesses is smoking responsible for?

    Like

  • @ Quaker John

    Many thanks. This is really your strength, stick to it.

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 11:43 AM

    Because an elderly person smoked as a youth does not mean s/he becomes vulnerable to CoVid-19.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Never said that!!

    An elderly person is more likely to have been in places (Ground Zero), been around smokers, smoked etc etc than a young person.

    Call it experience.

    A young person who has smoked, been around smokers AND has impaired lung function proven to be associated with cigarette smoking is just as likely to die as an old person.

    Its the lungs.

    A relative in Barbados, former chain smoker, healthy as a horse died at 91 of pneumonia.

    Caught flu and it progressed to pneumonia.

    Lung capacity reduced by years of smoking I am told by his son the doctor said, otherwise he would have cruised through the pneumonia like he had most setbacks in his life.

    He was actually smoke free for the last 20 years of his life.

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 11:43 AM

    We can make the same assumption about people who ate cou-cou as a youth. If you ate cou-cou you are likely to develop diabetes

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You are confused!!

    If you smoke you are likely to develop Diabetes Type II and guess what, Diabetes is condition which makes a person likely to die if they get COVID-19.

    Did smoking cause the death or diabetes … or COVID-19?

    “In fact, smokers are 30–40% more likely to develop type 2 diabetes than nonsmokers. And people with diabetes who smoke are more likely than nonsmokers to have trouble with insulin dosing and with controlling their disease. The more cigarettes you smoke, the higher your risk for type 2 diabetes.”

    Smokers are also 34% more likely to get flu than non-smokers!!

    Doesn’t take a genius!!

    Like

  • @Quaker John

    Thank you. I thought something was wrong with me. If one was a smoker or has an underlying condition such as diabetes, asthma or high blood pressure, contracting CoVid-19 means that these conditions would not help. But the cause of death is the virus, not the underlying conditions.
    You are fixated on smoking, but there are other lifestyles issues that do not help ie lack of physical exercise. I know it is not your case, but the crisis is throwing up a lot of nonsense.
    Up until November last year if I washed my hands too often I would be considered to be suffering from OCD, a mental illness. If I do now I am aware of protective health.
    In the UK people are now saying that so-called over-crowding can be a cause of transmission. What they mean is that a cultural tradition that was fine up until November (having your elderly living with the nuclear family, a mainly Asian and West Indian tradition in the UK) is now considered a liability.
    The real issue no one wants to discuss, either in the US or UK, is that doctors are not giving black people, especially the elderly, the kind of treatment they provide for white people, especially young, professional men an women.
    Doctors and nurses are racists too, they are not angels. It is one thing applauding every Thursday evening celebrating health service workers, but we must remember they can be just as crude as vicious as any other worker.
    I am not going off topic, but we can compare this with the treatment of prostate cancer in the UK. A higher proportion of Caribbean men suffer from prostate cancer, yet the charity campaigning for support is reluctant to use black people in its promotions or even target middle aged black men.
    Surely, I suggest, this marginalisation must go through in to treatment. The same with coronavirus.

    Like

  • Hal

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52308783

    “Coronavirus: Nine in 10 dying have existing illness”

    “The ONS looked at nearly 4,000 deaths during March in England and Wales where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

    In 91% of cases the individuals had other health problems.

    The most common was heart disease, followed by dementia and respiratory illness.

    On average, people dying also had roughly three other health conditions.

    It comes amid signs the coronavirus outbreak is deterring people from going to A&E.

    The number of people attending major units has nearly halved since the virus first emerged in the UK.”

    Every one of the pre existing conditions in the article CAN be caused by smoking.

    I know that because I spent most of the 1990’s working with the Heart Foundation of Barbados as my voluntary service and routinely was involved in discussions where cardiologists and open heart surgery patients were also involved.

    Even dementia can be caused by smoking!!

    I don’t have to be a genius to listen and digest what I hear from real people involved with and/or suffering from various real medical conditions.

    Further, if heart disease is the number one pre existing condition that is a cause of death for those who catch the virus then logically it follows that those sectors of the community which are more pre disposed to them will have a higher death rate.

    So if black people, young or elderly, are more prone to heart disease then it logically follows that the death rate among that segment of the population will be higher.

    No genius is necessary.

    Like

  • On the other side of the pond:

    “African Americans have higher rates of diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease than other groups. Nearly 15 percent of African Americans have diabetes compared with 8 percent of whites. Asthma prevalence is also highest among blacks.”

    Like

  • @ John

    Again. You cannot compare black people in the UK with black people in the US, unless you are saying any problems are genetic. There are fundamentally two different cultures, although they may have certain sub-cultural traits. You must compare black Britons with white Britons of similar socio-economic classes.
    Again, the underlying problems may not help recovery from coronavirus, but the cause of death is the virus, not the diabetes, or asthma, or high blood pressure, or that we eat lots of fried chicken.
    ONS figures can be ignored. I will give an example: officially the number of hospital deaths from coronavirus in the UK are over 16000, usually the official figures ignore deaths in care homes and at home. But there are officially over 21000 care homes in the UK; if we were to suggest that on average one person died in each of those homes – all residents are by definition elderly and highly probably suffering from underlying conditions – then we are looking at approaching 40000 deaths.
    @Quaker John, the people in the UK are scared. They cannot afford to Google and play little mind games.

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 2:28 PM

    The real issue no one wants to discuss, either in the US or UK, is that doctors are not giving black people, especially the elderly, the kind of treatment they provide for white people, especially young, professional men an women.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    There you go comparing black people in the US and UK and now telling me “You cannot compare black people in the UK with black people in the US, unless you are saying any problems are genetic.”

    The pre existing conditions are in most cases due to lifestyle choices, nothing to do with genetics.

    Like

  • “If you’re South Asian, African, or African Caribbean in the UK, your risk of developing some heart and circulatory diseases can be higher than white Europeans.”

    https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/risk-factors/ethnicity

    Like

  • No new cases today. They got some swabs and other equipment yesterday .

    Like

  • @Lysllsmall

    How are you feeling about the current state of affairs in Barbados?

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 3:02 PM

    @Quaker John, the people in the UK are scared.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Media has done its job.

    Like

  • David;

    Mixed!

    I am very heartened by the fact that there have been 5 successive days on which there were no new cases (btw this is true for a number of our neighbours also as seen in the worldometer files).

    But what does this mean? If one is an optimist it means that there is a distinct possibility that our C-19 outbreak is just 9 days or so from ending. But if one is a pessimist it only means that new cases will erupt in the next few days and send us back to square one. The Government is strategically and sensibly playing the role of pessimist. The optimistic outlook, however, suggests that if there were any infective people and their contacts out there from the March 15th to 22nd refugees that they would have showed since April 5th. Perhaps they did show as seen from the small peaks in the trending down graphs.

    I’ll send you a modified graph that is really for TheOGazerts and anyone else interested in visualization of the epidemic to inform this discussion. I would try to update the graph every day.

    What does this all mean re. the Government’s handling of the outbreak? I think, as I said on BU from very early on, that the Ministry of Health people have done an excellent job which sets the stage for a quick turnaround and gradual amelioration of the measures.

    I think the figures show that the Government’s handling of contract tracing has been very good, as outlined by Minister Bostic yesterday. All aspects were covered including referral of possible cases by private Doctors and Health professionals.

    I think that there will be possibly be just a few more deaths in Barbados from this outbreak, depending on the status of the health of the remaining persons in quarantine.

    So what is next?

    I think that it is quite likely that the Tourism industry will be badly damaged but will not die. There is too much invested in it by both the Government and the private sector to allow it to fail totally. There will have to be a lot of strategic planning over the next few months to keep it on life support and allow it to blossom into a different entity in the next few years. Our Caribbean Islands still have a resource thaat is most valuable. If all goes right we can claim that we have withstood C-19 better than our big neighbours to the North and South. Indeed, our size will make it possible for us to make the next and following outbreaks of Covid-19, easy to control. The Caribbean Islands will be able to exploit what I think will be a fact, that we will be intrinsically capable of controlling any new outbreaks with little loss of life and deleterious effects on health. That will allow us to get the rich people to come back to our tourist plants much sooner than most people think possible.

    I think that when Covid-19 comes around again we will have ways to control it that are only now only glimmering, they may include; use of high quality masks by the whole population; minimal use of Ventilators; Use of Ozone therapies; Using new hi-tech methods for surveillance; perhaps the abandonment of vaccines and use of better new drugs in collaboration with the Animal Scientists.

    There are many other positive thoughts that could underpin our resurgence. On agriculture; University involvement in moving forward; etc. etc.

    I will send the new graph now, to be updated whenever new data comes out from the Covid task force.

    Liked by 2 people

  • lyallsmall
    April 20, 2020 8:30 PM

    No new cases today. They got some swabs and other equipment yesterday .

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The key indicator is those in serious/critical condition.

    Still the same 4.

    Like

  • lyallsmall
    April 21, 2020 6:13 AM

    David;
    Mixed!
    I am very heartened by the fact that there have been 5 successive days on which there were no new cases (btw this is true for a number of our neighbours also as seen in the worldometer files).
    But what does this mean? If one is an optimist it means that there is a distinct possibility that our C-19 outbreak is just 9 days or so from ending. But if one is a pessimist it only means that new cases will erupt in the next few days and send us back to square one.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    If one is a realist it means the virus is not as contagious as feared.

    Like

  • @lyallsmall

    Thanks for your dispassionate feedback on the subject. It is a difficult time where a country and people may elect to make decisions based on an evidence base approach or default to one of emotion.

    Like

  • Graph submitted by @lyall

    Like

  • David;

    I think the Government is in the right position to make the right decisions. They have been doing excellently so far.

    Like

  • David;
    Thanks for posting the graph so quickly. I will update it as the GIS data comes out.

    Liked by 1 person

  • 6:22 a.m. curve
    Beautiful.
    Professional
    Excellent
    Great job

    Like

  • John

    There is actually a lot of data that suggests what you have said is really so. It just exploited a state of unreadiness and physical predisposing factors that was more evident in the US, especially New York, than elsewhere.

    Like

  • As good as you would see in a scientific journal.

    You have seen the quality of your end game. In the future, take your time and be your own worst critic.

    Like

  • TheOGazerts.

    You’ve made my day! Glad you liked the graph.

    I used to be almost an expert on Excel and my Master’s thesis was on an Epidemiological project many many years ago so your comments on the earlier graphs and the mistakes I made with them really hurt because you were totally right in all respects.

    Like

  • @Lyallsmall

    The blogmaster loves this comment.

    Like

  • The graph shows that the testing kits were all used up by the time April rolled around.

    Looks like they did no testing on 29th March or found no cases.

    Kits were probably being rationed coming up to the curfew or the number of cases was falling by the time the curfew was instituted.

    During the curfew either kits were rationed and testing reduced or the downward trend that had started prior to the curfew continued.

    There is a problem drawing inferences from the tiny numbers here in Barbados.

    The realist in me says it was just like a normal flu and ran its course.

    The only really vital number is the number of hospitalizations which has been small.

    Four are listed in serious/critical (assume hospitalized) and has been that way for a while.

    So, never any pressure on ICU beds.

    We owe a debt of gratitude to Dr. Gale and the Cancer Society.

    Like

  • Now, can we get back to work?

    Like

  • Hal

    Here is what you can do when you have got over your fears and are thinking rationally again.

    Get the data on the total number of deaths in the UK for the first four months of this year and compare it with the total number of deaths for the first four months in previous years.

    My guess is you will become angry!!

    My guess is deaths that would be attributable to diabetes, heart disease etc will be lumped into a new category, COVID-19 and there will be little difference to discern.

    Like

  • @ Quaker John

    You are ahead of me. I was here thinking that you are the only person on BU that could dig out the figures for the number of deaths from Feb 1 2 to April 21, 2020, and compare them with the same period for last year – ALL deaths.
    In the UK they are doctoring the death certificates and, as usual, it was a black family that exposed it. They are putting on death certificates ‘suspected CoVid-19’, whether the dead person had been tested or not.
    I sent the video to the chairman but, he claims, for technical reasons, it could not have been shown. A pity because it denies readers more information.
    I suggest you read a book called: Superior: The Return of Race Science, by Angela Saini. It is powerful. Remember Hitler was not a lone wolf, he had armies of scientists, business people and academics backing his theory of racial superiority.
    The UNESCO Statement on Race did not do away with this line of thought in science, it simply drove it underground, until it started to re-emerge in ideas of racial intelligence and as a result of the human genome project. Once you dehumanise a people, you in fact dehumanise everything about them.
    Three hundred years ago Christians used to say blacks had no soul; but modern day secular priests, scientists, now claim our differences are cultural/lifestyle/genetics. In other words, nature has made us the way we are.
    But have a look at the figures for previous days/weeks/months and compare them with now. Then we can extrapolate from that the causes of the increase or decrease or explain the similarity in numbers.

    Like

  • Hal

    I repeat:

    Here is what you can do when you have got over your fears and are thinking rationally again.

    Get the data on the total number of deaths in the UK for the first four months of this year and compare it with the total number of deaths for the first four months in previous years.

    A death is a death, regardless of cause, regardless of what it says on the certificate.

    Just compare the number of deaths for the first 4 months of 2020 with the deaths for the first 4 months of 2019, 2018, 2017 etc.

    This is a simple rational suggestion.

    Like

  • @ John April 21, 2020 7:21 AM
    “The realist in me says it was just like a normal flu and ran its course.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Why, then, do you allow the insanity in you to worship your god the Trumpeter of folly who is referring to the same “normal flu” as the “invisible enemy”?

    Are you seeing your hero in the WH as the modern-day Don Quixote of America and yourself, his sidekick, the Bajan Sancho Panza and mulatto Robin?

    The man with the false hair has been chomping at the bits for a war with an imaginary enemy.

    Like the ghost of Banquo paying a visit to Macbeth, the Trumpeter and king of braggadocio now has a real war on his hands with an invisible foe called the apparition of Gen. Covid Soleimani.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Quaker John

    You have the Bajan habit of anticipating people’s mind. I said people in the UK were scared, you have somehow interpreted that as meaning I am scared. I am not.
    It is none of your business, but my funeral plan was a part of my retirement plan, including a medical power of attorney and instructions not to resuscitate if anything unfortunate happens to me.
    I have also planned my funeral, a Christian one, which is tweaked occasionally, with the changing of hymns and additional passages from the Bible. I have also asked a friend, a retired clergyman, to take the funeral if I die before him. He agreed to. I am fearless, prepared for the final day whenever it comes. In that, I am like my mother, who went to her grave with great dignity.
    My mother died in a Brooklyn hospital and I was at her bedside (ironically, her nurse was a Barbadian married to a young man from the Ivy) and the only thing she asked for occasionally were painkillers. It left a lasting impression on me.

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 3:02 PM

    @Quaker John, the people in the UK are scared. They cannot afford to Google and play little mind games.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Every time they watch the Telly they are playing little mind games with experts who are yet to be right.

    No wonder they are petrified, I would be too … if I had a Telly … and actually watched it!!

    Like

  • David, re. my 6:13 am post I forgot to mention a key fact. That is that it is possible that our perpetual summer condition of relatively high temperatures, reasonably long sunlight hours, etc. might be acting to somewhat ameliorate the virulence and severity of Covid-19. This simple possibility can be used to develop a strategy for getting our traditional tourists from Europe and the US back in a shorter time frame than most posters here deem likely.

    Like

  • @Lyallsmall

    Have been reading of this opinion taking on a currency of late.

    Like

  • Hal Austin
    April 21, 2020 8:49 AM

    I have also asked a friend, a retired clergyman, to take the funeral if I die before him.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The two of you aren’t Quakers by any chance?

    Like

  • David;

    I’ve sent you a pdf file to update the graph. There are now six straight days with no additional cases

    Liked by 1 person

  • David; Please update the graph with the attached version. There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Lyallsmall

    Like

  • A FAMILY MEMBER of the 66-year-old woman who tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) yesterday is charging that Ministry of Health officials mishandled her case, since this was over three weeks she suspected she had the virus.

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/245152/family-ministry-dropped-ball-covid-19

    Like

  • @ Lyall Small April 21, 2020 11:13 PM

    It is like I said “wait and see.” It all comes back to the time slot 15-22 March, when it was not mandatory to quarantine persons. There is obviously a person Z in the community. I must admit your graphs do look impressive.

    Like

  • @Dr. Lucas

    The circumstances how the last case came to the public should be of grave concern to us all. Barbadians are being asked to make a sacrifice to contain the virus and if the press report is true that the medical team was careless processing the last reported case then we have to ask the CMO and Minister Bostic to explain themselves.

    Like

  • @ David April 23, 2020 5:58 AM

    I haven’t read the press report. Accidents will happen especially when one is dealing with over worked and inadequately protected workers. I doubt it was carelessness. In any event there is a P.A.H.O report purporting to say that the numbers of infected persons is being under reported in this part of the world. It was just reported by V.O.B 8.00AM news that testing is being ramped up from fifty to six-hundred today. This ramping up tends to support my stance, that the authorities are trying to track down the persons I have been referring to Z, who made up those who were allowed into the island and not held in quarantine between 15-22 March 2020. I really do not believe the part you alluded to about ‘careless processing.” I think that there is a search on for a fall-guy.

    Like

  • @Dr. Lucas Read this report.

    Like

  • @ David April 23, 2020 8:33 AM

    Some one seemed to have dropped the ball, but at that time there was a shortage of every thing. It does not however discard my point. First of all the government worker who infected this particular person, where was she exposed to the virus if she never left the island? It seems that every thing points toward the time slot of 15-22 March 2020. Apparently it is proposed to test six-hundred persons today according to 8.00AM V.O.B news and requests have made for retired Defense personnel to help in the tracking process. It is obviously hoped to nip things in the bud. Despite some errors a reasonable good job has been done considering the constraints.

    Like

  • @Dr. Lucas

    The comment is not meant to be destructively critical, more about being transparency with discussion.

    Like

  • @ David April 23, 2020 10:27 AM

    Point noted.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    ….. from other blog…

    @David, I see now that the article referred above was noted on [this] blog, […]

    I understand the ‘anger’ of the family but I come away with the same sense of hopelessness for the loss of commonsense as I did when I listened to the interview of the Bajan-Brit who has recovered from cov19 but whose mum, aunt and brother remain infected.

    I am not beating up on anyone… I look at these matters as ‘what would I have done in either of those instances – as a well informed, concerned Bajan – …. without being prolix, I surely would have been a bit more careful and doubly cautious with my elderly mum around…. I would have quarantined here in her room and cared for her with an expectation that she was infected (masked up, no contact with others unnecessarily, cleaning regularly etc etc) until Paragon came or I took her there.

    We can blame the govt all we want on their response tactics but good lord all this data presented DAILY is for us to act SENSIBLY when confronted by possible infections …in short ANY flu symptoms should be handled as cov19 until proven otherwise.

    In neither of the cases highlighted did the relatives display that level of blunt reasoning …it seems to me. That’s unfortunate and distressing and one wonders what are we actually INTERPRETING and UNDERSTANDING from all these warnings.

    Like

  • @Dee Word

    It is a difficult time. For the world.

    Like

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