Interesting intervention, the problem though is that we have a population which feels comfortable forming opinions based on a feeling and forget the cry to pressure the establishment to collect available […]data. Where can a better experiment be found than to look at the cricket data set.
David,
With all due respect to the disabled, I feel the need to pass on to you what my sister passed on to me years ago: “Feeling is for the blind”. Too many members of our population are “blind”. That explains why one-eyed men are kings in Barbados. The educated and enlightened ones know the value of using statistical data, distributions and their means and variances, along with hypothesis testing, as tools to assist with national planning and to achieve national objectives.
We have over 50 years of primary, secondary, and tertiary education data. Let us say that there is a global need for 1/2 billion doctors over the next 10 years. What is the probability that Barbados can produce 20,000 of the world’s requirement for doctors in the next decade?
How much of the world’s actuaries, engineers, accountants, investments managers are we aiming to produce in the next 8 years?
Have you ever heard a Minister of Education in Barbados bringing this sort of thinking to the table for discussion? How does the threat of cracking heads and shooting people fit into effective national human resource planning, one of the most basic and fundamental responsibilities of the Minister of Education?
We have over 50 years of political data on the performance of candidates from two major political parties in Barbados. Based on this history, what statistical distribution has been used to predict the performance of the major political parties in Barbados? What is the standard error of this distribution? What is the probability that neither one of the political parties will muster 35% of the eligible vote in the next general election in Barbados?
Have you ever heard Peter Wickham raising such issues? Instead, Peter has used pseudo science (making unscientific pronouncements and projections based on first differences (a “swing”)) to persuade and guide voters into producing an electoral result that HE wants. Attempts made in the last election to create polling results to suit HIS agenda confirm this.
For reasons known only to himself, Peter Wickham wanted the political leadership of Barbados to be controlled by Chris Sinckler and Mia Mottley. Small, and biased polls could have been easily used to start the ball rolling.
Furthermore, the first English settlers (all males) collected some African slaves (all males) and headed for Barbados. Therefore, Barbados has been experiencing homosexuality for almost 500 years. What statistical distribution should we use to predict the incidence of homosexuality in Barbados? What is the mean and variance of this distribution? What is the probability that at least 20% of Barbadians today are homosexuals? Why is Peter Wickham using the airwaves of Barbados to advance the cause and benefits of homosexuality? Did the majority of Barbadians clamour for this discussion? Again, similar to political polling, the discussion on homosexuality is aimed at producing a result that Peter wants.
And now to cricket and its dynamics. We have compiled almost 100 years of data on the West Indies cricket team. Based on the team that we are playing, we have to find the best statistical distribution, and its mean and variance, to assist us with our decision making.
For example, let us say that we know, on average, our individual fast bowlers over the past 100 years had to bowl 80 balls before they were able to break our opponents’ opening partnership. Today, we have six fast bowlers who are competing for a place on the team, and the average amount of balls each had to bowl to break an opening partnership are: 120, 78, 160, 140, 72, 200. Which two should we select? Should we be satisfied with the current batch? Or should we let everyone in the Caribbean know that we are desperately searching for fast bowlers and set up invitational clinics and training venues to attract and develop talented prospects?
Assume that we are playing against Australia. Historically, Australia has applied immense pressure on our batsmen in the 2nd innings when we are chasing runs to win. Our statistical distribution tells us that one batsman, with a higher test batting average, has a 20% chance of making 50 runs in the 2nd innings of a match. Another batsman has a 55% chance of making at least 50 runs in his 2nd innings. Only one of them can play. Which one should be selected?
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81 responses to “Walter Blackman Tells It Like it Is: The Importance of Collecting Data to Drive National Development”
Walter Blackman
Walter Blackman October 25, 2015 at 4:54 PM
“Mr. Griffith returned and presided over an inequitable tax system which had placed an undue tax burden on a particular segment (the working class) of our population.”
millertheanunnaki October 26, 2015 at 10:05 AM
“Walter that’s a rather scathing attack and ‘heavy’ charged leveled against (according to you) a “career civil servant”.
Where is the evidence to support your charge? Which tax did the Director imposed on the “working class” that created undue burden?”
millertheanunnaki,
You are “playing down the wrong line.”
If you read my statement very carefully, you will realize that I am arguing that we had “an inequitable tax system” before thousands of taxpayers’ dollars were spent to educate Mr. Griffith.
After our tax dollars were spent, hopefully to be repaid by some improvements to the system, Mr. Griffith returned and presided over the same inequitable tax system. No change. And 35 years later, we are shamelessly begging foreigners, who are no smarter than we are, to use their brains to improve our tax system and rescue us. Was our money well spent? Just asking.
Why are we taking up taxpayers’ money and training people, if the level of inefficiency and inequity that existed before we train them continue to flourish after the training? Does this make any sense to you? It certainly doesn’t make any to me. Just saying.
I am not making any scathing attacks, or leveling any charges here. I am simply seeing things with my two eyes wide open. Just observing.
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Walter Blackman
Caswell Franklyn October 25, 2015 at 3:33 PM #
“Walter
Here of late, the main reason for persons entering politics in Barbados is to feather their nest. The type of analysis that you are championing does not matter to them.”
Caswell,
There are only 30 of them “in the nest”. Maybe a time will come when our analyses and discussions might matter to the rest of Barbadians, leaving them isolated as “dinosauric” outcasts. Who knows?
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Bush Tea
@ Dompey
You are talking shiite…and articulating it like a rock….
BTW
Be careful, word is that one of your sons have been seen buying matches again…. 🙂
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Bush Tea
@ Walter
You have to forgive Caswell.
He is an unapologetic pessimist who has resigned himself to the belief that all is lost…
probably as result of his involvement in the ‘system’, under the misguided belief that he could have effected change from within..
In reality, it will only take two or three good men – with BALLS, …to upset the whole shiite applecart that is our parliament.
ANY TWO Bajans who can stand up and SPEAK THE TRUTH PUBLICLY, and who are able to gain the TRUST of Bajans ….WILL, without any great effort, set the bunch of JAs there on the run…
Unfortunately, in order to be able to stand up and ‘cast the first stone’, those “few good men” must be men of CHARACTER …and not ‘closet’ lackies and pimps.
Also they must be beholden to NO ONE…. and be in fear of GOD ……ONLY!
The rest is cake….
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Walter Blackman
Sunshine Sunny Shine October 26, 2015 at 5:34 AM #
“@Walter Blackman
You know this girl has expressed her pleasure in your ability……”
Sunshine Sunny Shine,
After reading those few opening words from you, the “cockles of my heart” (thanks Wild Coot) got so hot, that I could not go a step further.
Although “Piece” is at church throwing furtive glances at Sister Headley, whilst the Madam is collecting the offering, I am sure that he has his ears “pricked”. Therefore, I will say no more.
But know ye this, my ability thoroughly enjoyed every ounce of your pleasure that you have expressed in it.
LOL.
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Walter Blackman
de Ingrunt Word October 26, 2015 at 9:47 AM #
“@Walter,
You are clearly suggesting that we must question his (Peter Wickham’s) results because he is professionally ‘gerrymandering’ them.
Are you really saying that the results over several election seasons and in different countries which his polling ‘predicted’ would not have been similarly offered by other competent pollsters?”
de Ingrunt Word,
I am not employing any techniques of subterfuge or skulduggery here. Up front, I have openly declared that I am deliberately stoking the fire with my comments in an attempt to open Barbadians’ eyes further. I have also said that I run the risk of getting some “licks”for doing so. However, for every pound of flesh that I surrender, the flogger also has to pay a price. In the process, Barbadians will become much, much wiser.
You are not sharing any lashes, so let us reason together on a few scientific aspects of polling.
Pretend that I am conducting a poll to determine which political party in Barbados is more popular. I poll 5000 persons from St. John, 1000 from St. Peter, and 1000 from St. Joseph.
I tell you that, after having polled 7,000 persons, the results are: DLP 65%. BLP 35%. What have I done to you? I have given you “biased” results in an attempt to make you believe they were representative of the whole of Barbados. What more information should you have demanded from me?
I am conducting a poll to determine who are the more popular leaders among Owen Arthur, Mia Mottley, Chris Sinckler, and Freudel Stuart in Barbados. I pick 2000 from Chris Sinckler’s strongest boxes, 3000 from throughout Mia’s constituency, 1000 from Noel Lynch’s strongest boxes, 500 from the Speightstown area, and 500 from Marchfield.
I tell you that after having polled 7,000 persons, the results are: Mia Mottley 40%, Chris Sinckler 30%, Owen Arthur 20%, and Freundel Stuart 10%. What have I done to you? What more information should you have demanded from me?
The point I am making here is that for polling results to be fair and meaningful, “bias” must be minimized in the sample. Once you inject bias into the sample, you can employ as much professional techniques after that point as you like. The result is already flawed.
To minimize bias and provide results with a given level of confidence, a random cross section of respondents, of at least a given size, must be obtained. To achieve that objective, additional costs have to be incurred. A point made by Artaxerxes.
At the political level, cheating and “nasty” tricks invariably reach the highest levels in situations where contests are very close.
The 2013 general election in Barbados was the closest in recent history. If ever there was a good time to put pollsters under the microscope, the 2013 election was it. This is where their inherent and latent biases would most likely reveal themselves.
How did our pollsters do in the 2013 general election? Did any unusual or strange acts of behaviour manifest themselves? Was there any sudden, last minute change in projected polling results foisted on the Barbadian electorate to influence the vote as the election date grew nearer? Did any new pollsters jump in the “ling”? Which side did any strange polling behaviour tend to favour? If questionable tactics were adopted then, who is to say that there were not adopted before?
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Walter Blackman
Who is to say that “they” were not adopted before?
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Dompey
Bush Tea
Brother, put the crackpipe down because you’re too vale of years and ought to know better.
How dear you besmear another person’s intelligence when you yourself haven’t a proper understanding of the word intelligence?
Most scholars my friend, are remarkably gifted in a given area of academics, but are in want of the necessary knowledge and intelligence to confabulate in an area apart from their expertise.
So the question then become Bushie, is it fair to judge another person’s intelligence devoid of a specific criterion or criteria?
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pieceuhderockyeahright
@ Mr Blackman.
You know that you have my vote WHEN you and Jeff Cumberbatch start to run.
On another note. Only to yourself.
Like Icarus I see that you are being encouraged to do bad things by the Lawson Crew, even outdoor not encourage you in this, wunna gots to lef certain peeple alone.
When SSS says ” pleasure in your ability…” Dots of continuity noted, she was clear whu she talking bout… doan leh we has no commotion.
En de nex ting I wants to know is dat de body dat you got at me church commenting bout Sistah Headley who Dem is?
I hope dat de Blogmaster refuse to post any purported picture uh Dem glances causing I does only be mekking sure she pun de nex side uh de church cause I fraid dem sisterly hugs dat she like giving me..
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pieceuhderockyeahright
@ Bro Bush Tea
I said I would send this article to you alone since you alone would appreciate its implications vis a vis you know who
Given that ** has offspring is it possible that charges might be brought against the other party, I was just asking.. But then the Devon authorities might have to make Murica a colony to prosecute..axe one uh you lawyer people’s dem..
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Sunshine Sunny Shine
@ Walter Blackman
How easily you misconstrued a compliment. Does being a woman means that everything she says is a come on? I leave you to my sweet piece; he does not take it likely when men of your stature, and christ there have been a lot of high flyers in Bim and here, trying to get it on with me. Over to you piece – TAKE HIM OUT!!
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pieceuhderockyeahright
May I speak on Chad99999’s behalf? ( just event back to copy and paste some more of Chads comments and low and behold there is Bush Tea talking de same ting as de ole man! Bush Tea I gine just go to start opposing you fuh opposing you sake doah, I jes cyan be agreeing wid eveyting dat you saying!,)
Anyway Chad did say “…even though many of these people are ill-bred, impatient for financial success, or just selfish and greedy. The result is..”
Blanket statements have a way of getting people rankled
“Women are too emotional”, “men are dogs…”
While his leader sentence was a “politics of inclusion” comment Chad does speak a truth when he says “many of these peeple are ill-bred” or ent got no broughtupcy or are not of the intellectual ilk to be representing our peeple in parliament…
Examples? You muddah scvnt William Duguid pun national TV, Minister of SideWalks and Gutters Patrick Todd, Trevor Prescod, Denis both of Them, 007 or is that 0.07 Stinkliar, need I go on?
Had Chad used a comma instead of his “even” he would have attracted less ran our to the truth he uttered in his sentence construct that while not similarly parsed like DIW makes the germane point dat they have no breeding and are intellectually deficient.
And if wunna doubt wuh de ole man saying in gine pull my leg iron, no not dat one, de udder one like whu PittBull David Estwick did was pull pun Dale Smiley Teets Marshall while dese peeple who are ill bred misinterpret Parliamentary Privilege
Write on Chad, write on…
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de Ingrunt Word
And @Pieces, as you are doing such an excellent job as Chad9999’s advocate, as your blog mate stipulated with his solicitor joke, please for my sake in this BU court clarify his remarks re the social class ting.
I must concede that expectations and experiences can be an ‘itch’ at times particularly as I said earlier when one reads remarks from a blogger which if emanating from the mouth of one of these we take to task would cause a virtual ‘kadooment’ of licks.
Break out that “Well, we tried to more fully integrate people from all social classes and backgrounds into all levels of civil society and political decision making…”
I am still leaning to convict this perp as guilty for careless and inane commentary; you are a great advocate and another sterling defense would leverage me to acquit.
@Walter, OK sir I get you above and got you first up too.
On that leadership ting for example I would expect (or is that hope) that the average Bajan – even though unfamiliar with pooling to your or Artax’s technical level, or mine which would be several notches below but sharp enough – would understand intuitively how easily that could be shewed depending on the address of respondents.
Polls can be as predictive as they can be actual opinion shapers so shenanigans do abound.
The ‘Huck Finn’ man noticed that a 100+ years ago, so hope springs eternal that we Bajans are a lot less ‘rural’ and more savvy now.
Your point is well made though; absolutely well made. It certainly made me stop and reflect on the one pollster I considered as professionally above aboard.
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Walter Blackman
Sunshine Sunny Shine October 27, 2015 at 6:20 AM #
“@ Walter Blackman
I leave you to my sweet piece; ….. Over to you piece – TAKE HIM OUT”
Sunshine Sunny Shine,
Before your sweet piece, your “hit man”, comes to take me out, can you find it in your heart to forgive me? In Bajan parlance, can you give me a break? If so, then I promise not to “do it” again.
LOL
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Walter Blackman
de Ingrunt Word October 27, 2015 at 8:01 AM
“so hope springs eternal that we Bajans are a lot less ‘rural’ and more savvy now.”
de Ingrunt Word,
As a people, we are now waking up. In fact, we have been forced to.
Without gloves, we have endured some vicious left hooks from BLP-sponsored ministers of government. Now that we have turned the other cheek, we have been rewarded with some bone-crunching right crosses from the DLP-backed David Thompson gang.
These “advantage takers” have morphed into a political class and are now punching “in combination”. Uppercuts, “body searchers”, and low blows (rather than call “foul”, the referee tells them “hit them again”) have now become our daily diet.
However, as we converse and argue with each other daily on BU and other social media, some of our ideas are beginning to take root. As a people, we are beginning to develop gloves.
One day, hopefully soon, we will all raise gloved hands and begin to fight back. The Barbadian Spring would have arrived.
Interesting there is a regional conference currently taking place in Barbados and the lament from the Director of the BSS Aubrey Browne is lack of resources and stakeholders not collaborating with the NIS to ensure quality data extraction. We have a problem. On the flip side the manager of the resources is also complaining, MOF.
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de Ingrunt Word
“These “advantage takers” have morphed into a political class and are now punching “in combination”. Uppercuts, “body searchers”, and low blows (rather than call “foul”, the referee tells them “hit them again”) have now become our daily diet…
One day, hopefully soon, we will all raise gloved hands and begin to fight back. The Barbadian Spring would have arrived.”
FIRST CLASS!!!
@Walter, If you are as effective a politician as you are a wordsmith den…look out!!!
And you gotta get impartial referees, so that when the pols get their ‘ass exposed’ you can make then crow!
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Walter Blackman
chad99999 October 26, 2015 at 2:45 PM #
@ de Ingrunt
“Seems to me that your reaction to my comments are emotional and defensive but essentially without content. Where is the beef? Most historians and political scientists would not contest the claim that there was a steady downward trajectory in integrity, decency, and ethical standards as we moved from Adams to Barrow to Adams to Sandiford and to Arthur. Then we fell off a cliff with Thompson and have recovered only slightly with the current PM. Address the facts instead of puffing yourself up into a state of indignation about being ‘insulted;”
chad99999,
Again, I am playing the Devil’s advocate here.
You have drawn a historical line of demarcation (1953) separating the rule of the Governors (white and foreign) from the rule of the locals (black and Barbadian). You have looked forward from the time that internal self government started in Barbados and have asserted that “there was a steady downward trajectory in integrity, decency, and ethical standards…”
If you want to be fair to your readers, you simply cannot draw a line, look forward only, and dump conclusions in their lap.
To give us an idea of where our national standards related to integrity, decency, and ethics were before 1953, you have to give us an insight, for example, into how the trajectory was trending as we moved from the “Governors” rule of Sir Eubule Waddington (1938 – 1941), Sir Henry Bushe (1941 -1947), Sir Hilary Blood (1947 -1949), and Sir Alfred Savage (1949 -1953).
As the baton of Governorship was relayed by these men, did the trajectory in national integrity and decency trend upwards? Remain consistently high? Move up and down? What?
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Bush Tea
Cuh Dear Walter
Those Governors never claimed to be our ‘leaders’….. they were representing our owners…. we were colonies…. to be disposed at our master’s whim.
Surely any ‘Beginning’ against which we must measure decline MUST have been once we assumed responsibility for our own affairs.
Basically Chad is saying that after a brief spurt from Grantley, Barrow and Tom, dealing with what were REALLY low hanging fruit, we have not done shit….
…and that far from the glowing display of national pride and industry that SHOULD have been the outpouring from a people freed after 400 years of animal-like treatment, we have instead sought and followed a steady trek BACK into slavery ….THIS TIME WILLINGLY LED BY A SET OF DUMB, JACK ASS POLITICIANS FROM AMONG US….
…are you not insulted?
…would you not question the ‘class’ and ‘breeding’ of such leaders?
Shiite man!! …in Bushie’s book, Chad has been quit circumspect and restrained in his description of the brass bowl jackass lackies that have been calling themselves ‘leaders’ in Brassbados….
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BAFBFP
“ANY TWO Bajans who can stand up and SPEAK THE TRUTH PUBLICLY, and who are able to gain the TRUST of Bajans ”
Bagnall Point, 6:00 pm dis Fridy …. a cast of the best actors/public performers in Barbados will completely dismantle the elections process and political parties. It Free and it’s the start
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Hants
@ BAFBFP ,
Record and post on BU.
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Sunshine Sunny Shine
@ Walter Blackman
I would forgive you if you make me one promise. Promise me that you will do all in your intellectual power to make Barbadians aware of the madness that is going on in the island and that you will run for election. Promise me that and I will come home and support your campaign with a kiss.
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Walter Blackman
Sunshine Sunny Shine October 27, 2015 at 12:42 PM #
“@ Walter Blackman
“Promise me that you will do all in your intellectual power to make Barbadians aware of the madness that is going on in the island and that you will run for election.”
Sunshine Sunny Shine,
I met with Errol Barrow for the first time in my life in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition in November 1984. After that, he scheduled a meeting for me to see him again at a flat he occupied on the compound of Paradise Beach Hotel, and after that, at a bungalow in Enterprise near Oistins Beach (I remember a white woman serving me tea, I think her name was Jeannine, just before we started talking).
Early in 1987, he summoned me to DLP Headquarters, and asked me to undertake an assignment, for the future development of the DLP.
Just before I left him, he made me promise that I would use all of my knowledge and skills to better Barbadians and Barbados. I hesitated, reflected for a while, and then said to him: “I promise”. That was the last time we spoke a word to each other.
Your request has brought those memories flooding back. The last words I said to EWB, I now say to you: “I promise.”
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Bush Tea
So wait….
You made a solemn promise to the Dipper ….and still over in the states playing de ass…?
What the hell Bushie hearing at all….?
Boss …. how soon will you be here….?
Up then….
Truest flame lies in high endeavour
…..
Foes in plenty we shall meet
Hearts courageous scorn defeat
So we press with eager feet
Up and on, Up and on
Ever upward to the fight
Ever upward to the light
Ever true to God and right
Up and on, Up and on.
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Dompey
Walter Blackman
I met Errol Barrow as a teenager bagging groceries at Home Center Limited back in the early 1980s; Mr. Barrow was a regular shopper at Home Center during those years when the BLP was in power.
I remember with great admiration on a particular occasion, I asked Mr. Barrow to carry his groceries to his car, and this giant of a man politely refused my request.
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Sunshine Sunny Shine
@Walter Blackman
I hope all this praise being heaped on you do not swell your head and make you believe that you are some all knowing oracle immune to the ideas of others. You sound like the stuff integrity is made of. We have a serious lack of that coming from both political parties. We need people who understand country and the importance of managing it well. Not shites with ambitions base on get rich schemes. Plus we want people who are not afraid of going after the despicable thieving status quo and who will not be easily brought by suitcase wielding money business. Are you that man Walter Blackman.
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TheObserver
I make my living as a statistician in the USA, so please accepts my compliment on your recommendation that we use more statistical modeling in making our decisions.
However, I want to comment on two of your statements.
I may be a bit over my head on the homosexual issue, but I believe that homosexuality of today cannot be explained by the homosexuality of yesterday. I wonder if with sexual tourism and with hard and difficult times if these acts are practised only by homosexuals.
I like your venture into the use of statistics in selecting the WI cricket team. I see even some Bayesian thinking where you use suggest the use of historical data in making your selection, but I suspect that such thinking is already being employed.
Part of Bayesian modeling is adjusting your probabilities when new data become available. So if your primary selection makes a few ducks he will be off of the team as his probability is adjusted downwards. The pressure to perform, the continual changing of the team would wreak havoc on team spirit and teamwork. I agree that our decision making (selection process) needs some improvement
What an interesting observation by Cheryl Willougby, head of substance abuse – she claims if one wants to do research to establish link with crime and alcohol for example, said person has to request data from several departments. How are we to describe ourselves as education having sunk billions in education only to find we can’t access the data to improve our lot?
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Hants
@ David who wrote ” said person has to request data from several departments.”
So these departments are located in Iceland, Antartica and the Kalahari desert.
We have government departments operating on disparate systems. The fact there is no motivation to integrate or share platforms is an indication of the level of ignorance that abounds.
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Bush Tea
@ David
You playing that you don’t understand what she is saying…?
People have to BRING that data and hand it to her…. She won’t be running around anywhere searching for it…. think she got a masters degree fuh sport…?
…think these women easy nuh…?
What the hell is wrong with a research department making it THEIR business to GET OUT THERE and collect the needed data – by whatever means required – to achieve their mandate?
What the hell else do they actually DO anyway? …sit around counting how many people got shot, stabbed and choked? ….yuh mean the police don’t do that BY DEFAULT?
Steupsss…. the money being paid to them could REALLY be redirected to hiring a few more damn policemen or real real judges….
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