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Submitted by Pachamama
...Barbados dollar as exacerbated by a lack of a vision that would have strategically redeployed the reserves of the country into gold, Bitcoin, silver and other real wealth currencies...
…Barbados dollar as exacerbated by a lack of a vision that would have strategically redeployed the reserves of the country into gold, Bitcoin, silver and other real wealth currencies…

The rapid evolution of mankind over recent millennia, and particularly after the Industrial Revolution, has hit a significant speed bump. We write this with the certain knowledge that we stand high risks of having all of our predictions being spectacular misjudgements. But unlike the general culture from which we come, we are bold and brave enough to not only try to bring new understandings to the past and better understand the present, we are prepared to, with audacity and poise, be daring enough to predict future events, in the short, medium and long term. As soothsayers, we predict that we are indeed at the end of an age that no set of forces can slow, moderate or reverse, even though humans are totally responsible for all these constructs but lack any real and concerted determination to radically alter outcomes.

The global decline of a vicious White power structure, we judge, will continue apace despite unusual efforts in Western capitals to stem the slide. It however, has a potential to take us all with it. The more they try the worse things will become. The manifestations of the economic decline of Europe will prominently appear in the streets of the USA in 2014, as early indications have already shown. These will be expressed by resource riots in the streets, soaring crime rates, rising levels of real unemployment as independently measured, a more indebted government, a more overt presence of a militarized police state, a further balkanization of populations in ‘protected’ or gated communities and the mass migration of those who could afford it. All this as more American cities and states discover the spectre of bankruptcy at their doorstep. Like Detroit, many more cities will be joining the conga line in 2014 and beyond.

Barbados and the Caribbean will fear no better. The recent revelations in Barbados portend prophesies of gloom and doom, not that these will stymie a systemic international, national, regional, local lethargy. The remarks by Saint Lucia’s Prime Minister have already driven Christopher Sinckler and a feckless Barbados government to a ‘mini budget’ mere months after the principle statement of national economic, fiscal affairs. But the insightful remarks by Kenny Anthony are to have much wider application, all other things being equal. But all other things will not be equal, as recent events in Saint Vincent and Anthony’s own Saint Lucia will show, for no one, no country, has been prepared or could be prepared for an entry into this unknown territory. So Sinckler can be expected to return with other mini budgets as the future makes a nullity of his firm anchorage to a political-economy model of a bygone era.

While Sinckler continues to reside in this world of yore we see a series of steep and unavoidable devaluations of the Barbados dollar as exacerbated by a lack of a vision that would have strategically redeployed the reserves of the country into gold, Bitcoin, silver and other real wealth currencies. Such a farsighted policy in itself could have earned a sufficiency of foreign resources to counterbalance current anomalies. Sinckler, Stuart and the GOB will not be able to exit the irrational dependence on the traditional foreign exchange earning sectors and will continue in the vain hope for deliverance from the vortex of a fundamental collapse of capitalism, on the one hand, and their inability to fashion another way, another organizing principle, on the other. They are like gamblers wishing their luck will change some time soon. It will continue to get worse and Barbados will end up in the mire as a result of the misguidance of those who still seem to believe we have no other options than B or D. With the Bees waiting at first slip to catch the people of Barbados.

In the wider Caribbean 2014 will see a number of elections, ahead of scheduled. Politicians will be forced to, in some cases, in others they will be seeking to use elections to control the pressure cookers these small island states will further become. Caribbean peoples will see more and more of the uselessness of their leaders across the board. Revolutions will be called for from Port au Prince to Port of Spain. The vested interests and their international confederates will leave no stone unturned in diverting the innate desires of the peoples into the service of the maintenance of a dying order. Not even the Secret Order, the secret intelligence agencies or their local networks will be able to deny the collective will of the Caribbean peoples. 2014 will see the first open failures of these conservative yearnings by vested Caribbean elites.

Internationally, pressures from emerging countries for the de- dollarization of international trade and for limits to, or a shift from, the US dollar as ‘the’ medium of exchange will gain pace. For the USA, 2014 will be a marked year. A year when decline is well recognized and the only remaining questions will relate to how much longer will we have to put up with the ugly American and how much damage could they do before their final breath, as global hegemon. And is there to be the usual war USA verses China starting in the South China Sea as triggered by the dumping of Chinese held and useless American paper, treasury bills. 2014 will start the accelerated migration of the power of The World Bank, The IMF, The International Bank of Settlements, the United Nations and other organs of world power away from the western powers. We will see more of the rise of the BRICS, a more consolidated Islamic Awakening and a China as the preeminent global trading superpower and lender of last resort.

So whether we are talking from a political, economic, social, technological, physical environment or legal environmental perspective, the state of the world, the Caribbean and Barbados is well positioned for a quantum leap into an abyss of disaster before any emergence of a more hopeful place, if that becomes possible. But before a dawn, capitalism will be more and more seen as the cul de sac it has been. Infinitely incapable of responding to the basic needs of people anywhere. Democracy’s promise will more and more give way to feudalism. The rich will continue to get richer and the poor, poorer.

Notwithstanding the monumental problems we are facing, and will continue to face, the nature of the human spirit represents the critical ingredient. Even in the worst of circumstances the pale skin peoples of the world will continue to feel that they better than Black peoples. The so-called middle classes will continue to believe that there can never be a common cause with the poor. The poor will be the first to die, the last to be fed and after the last to be housed and clothed. On top, marooned leaderships will continue to exploit the perceived differences for the maintenance of their power. Power as useless as a toothless tiger. Making things better may include major reversals in what is generically called development. It may not necessarily involve as radical a step as the institution of the lifestyle of Stone Age man but resource usage certainly has to be markedly reduced, especially by ‘advance’ countries.


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151 responses to “Tales of Gloom and Doom – 2014 Will Be No Better, It Will Be Worse…Far Worse!”


  1. Tonight we hear Sandiford -Garner urging Barbados to pursue Cuisine Tourism, whatever that is,and stating that Barbados is the Cuisine Capital of the Caribbean. She should investigate why many visitors staying in many non-inclusive hotels are now turning to Oistin Bay Gardens, Hot dog Carts, fast food restaurants and even to those vans which sell food on construction sites and other places.
    This Caribbean publication says differently, Senator.
    http://www.caribjournal.com/2013/12/24/the-50-best-caribbean-restaurants-for-2013/5/


  2. An interesting commentary from the Trinidad Express:

    “The challenge facing Barbados is not simply that of declining foreign exchange earnings; it is the fundamental challenge of Independence. Everywhere, the political, economic and social infrastructure laid down for the 17th century British colonial enterprise has run its course and is in collapse. For almost fifty years since 1966, Barbados’ challenge has been to transform its entire institutional apparatus from one designed for colonial control and containment, to one relevant to the needs of a sovereign and sustainable society. ”

    http://www.trinidadexpress.com/commentaries/For-Barbados-With-Hope-238736941.html


  3. Following closely behind the heels of government, the private sector has started to off load some employees. Today we read that McEnearney Quality Inc ,a subsidiary of ANSA McAL group of Trinidad, has sent home some 22 workers, as “The Automotive industry overall has seen a decline ,McEnearney needs to reduce costs in order to be profitable in the future.”
    This is a completely different picture to what we learn from Courtesy Garage at the end of last year, where that company has seen a significant increase in car sales, and was able to pay its employees a bonus.


  4. Something positive must be said to delude the natives..


  5. Wow, the writer really has some great ideas / thinking… NOT!!!

    Bitcoin is a safe bet!!!

    The US is about to fail – they may not have fixed the principles of their economy but they have a lot of wealth there and a lot of resources we don’t have here.

    Blame it all on the White man attitude – I know most intelligent Barbadian’s have moved past that.. thank God!

    Capitalism is a failure – so lets try socialism / communism like Cuba / Venezuela all failed states with terrible human rights records (add Russia and China who are changing their ways to a more capitalist approach and you have an answer to that). We can even see it here in Barbados. We are also now seeing the beginning of what our socialist tendencies have created.

    All the marxist views I read from time to time on this blog really make me wonder if the writers really believe that more of what we have been doing for the past couple years that has failed us is really what we need going forward???? Really… wake up!

    We need a smaller Government that gets things done fast and efficiently, a vision for the country for education, technology, tourism, off shore sector. We need big idea thinkers and people who have been exposed outside of Barbados to the real world and can come with new ideas (including the Caribbean and International there). A cleaning out of the Colonial system we have inherited and a modernising of our systems to a 21st century approach – the civil service needs to be rethought completely and begin to operate like a business – if you don’t get work done you go home – our lazy attitudes will change fast and those who want to succeed will push forward, get up off their feet and make something of themselves – right now everyone is just blaming and waiting, that is the society we have created.

    The unions in Barbados have also been the greatest challenge to business and the workers – holding back growth of both. Now their true colours are coming out, maybe everyone (the workers) will see that they are just a business like any other company. While they play a role in looking out for the workers they have overstepped their boundaries when they try to run someone else’s business – the big show they put on for the masses of ideas for the government to not lay off people… really!! What a show. If cut’s need to take place and they know we are overstaffed then why are they trying to keep the country with this big cost. In fact, they are right though, those other benefits need to stop to and only be given tot he people who really need help – I have no problem with that.

    I think all parties better come together if they really care about Barbados and start talking about what needs to be done for the future of our country to be less painful than it has to be. The irony in that statement is that they have been, the present government has had so many papers . meetings etc with every area of the economy and have basically done nothing – just hung on to all the fake jobs they were borrowing continuously to pay. We now need a government that will listen. For the past years they have not listened to the any of the people who have offered good advise, they have gone forward with their own plans that have failed.


  6. For almost fifty years since 1966, Barbados’ challenge has been to transform its entire institutional apparatus from one designed for colonial control and containment, to one relevant to the needs of a sovereign and sustainable society. ”

    ELABORATE


  7. IDIOTS always compare Barbados with the USA


  8. Barbados and the USA should not be mentioned in the same breath

  9. Michael Saunders Avatar
    Michael Saunders

    Barbados, with those that have bought their way into power, has only one path to follow….and that path is down hill!!!!! With an international reputation of bribery of government officials and politicians and having those in power line their pockets at the expence of the common folk….well it goes without saying that this reputation is well deserved.
    With Tom Haughton being able to bribe his way to freedom through buying off government officials thus having the paperwork against him vanish….well it goes without saying just how low the country has slipped and just what well earned reputation that Barbados has earned for itself!!!!!!!
    Personally I would not trust anyone from this hideous barbaric island and those who are so blind that they allow their government officials to act in the mannerism that they are so well known for.


  10. @ Hot, You are on the right path with some of your ideas.


  11. Colonel Buggy What Sandiford -Garner meant was ….your goose is cooked.


  12. Gold prices fell 28% in 2013, the large decrease since 1981.., and what did they fall against…oh yes it was the US$. The Brazil Real fell 40%, the Japanese yen 20%, the Canadian dollar 15%.putting the US$ on a strong gain against all other currencies and commodities in the world. The US$ is the strongest currency in the world and the strongest economy that saw a population increase last year of 2.500.000 people. The Dow had a nice upward movement of 28%. The USA rocks!!!!!! .

    A lot of our problems come from pegging to the US$.. In the 1960’s the Great British pound was $3.50 to the dollar. Since then it has lost 80% of its value . Barbados is 80% more expensive to visit than it was in the 1960’s based on currency conversion alone. We have been living the high life based on a false valuation of our currency as a result of having a fixed peg. to the US$ The end result is we have made our self too dam expensive compared to other destinations and at the same time North American governments are cracking down on offshore tax havens which Barbados has a high reputation for being a world leader in. These dollars are leaving as well. We areall going to hae to learn to get along with a lot less because the mighty US$ is leaving Barbados.


  13. Investent Watch web site warns of up to a 90% stock market correction. Warren Buffet and his fellow billionaires have been selling off stock holdings in major companies relying on consumer spending, e.g. Proctor & Gamble, Kraft, Johnson & Johnson.

    http://investmentwatchblog.com/90-collapse-of-stock-market-buffet-already-sold-shares/


  14. The Case of the Missing Recovery

    Paul Craig Roberts

    Have you seen the economic recovery? I haven’t either. But it is bound to be around here somewhere, because the National Bureau of Economic Research spotted it in June 2009, four and one-half years ago.

    It is a shy and reclusive recovery, like the “New Economy” and all those promised new economy jobs. I haven’t seen them either, but we know they are here, somewhere, because the economists said so.

    Congress must have seen all those jobs before they went home for Christmas, because our representatives let extended unemployment benefits expire for 1.3 million unemployed Americans, who have not yet met up with those new economy jobs, or even with an old economy job for that matter.

    By letting extended unemployment benefits expire, Congress figures that they saved 1.3 million Americans from becoming lifelong bums of the nanny state and living off the public purse. After all, who do those unemployed Americans think they are? A bank too big to fail? The military-security complex? Israel?

    snip

    At a time when most Americans are running out of coping mechanisms, the US faces a possible financial collapse and a high rate of inflation from dollar depreciation as the Fed pours out newly created money in an effort to support the rigged financial markets.

    It remains to be seen whether the chickens can be kept from coming home to roost for another year.

    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/03/case-missing-recovery-paul-craig-roberts/


  15. what started out as a real failure of economic and global policies that have affected countries world wide has now morphed itself into psychological warfare pinning the “haves” against the” have nots”on this tiny island of barbados , if truth be known the poor have now once again become the scapegoats of all that is wrong with our nations economic failures and according to the predictors of gloom and doom the poor must be dealt with in the harshest possible way in order for growth and stability to flourish,meanwhile those with influence and economic power remove their finances from this struggling island and head for greener pastures forgetting how in bountiful times barbados welcome them with open arms rewarding them handsomely…..


  16. today obama is “begging” the republicans to have a heart and extend the unemployment benefits to 1.3 million americans,,,,,,,but in true form the republicans just like the BLP in barbados has dubbed 1.3million unemployed as being lazy and living off the govt,,,, never mind the millions of dollars the Republicans have given to start up projects that never made it off the ground,,,,,,sounds familiar ,,,,,, psychological warfare has greater potential to do great harm resulting in the numbing down of one;s psyche and a greater acceptance of crude and intolerant behavior,,,


  17. I hate to cut and paste to get a point across. All this gloom and doom that is being predicted is not evident in the numbers. Take a look at the un-employment rates state by state as of Dec 1, 2013 in the USA below the stars.. Bear in mind that 5% unemployment is considered excellent on the employment barometer in the US. (5% is considered everyone that is employable is employed). This economy is roaring back so be careful with the gloomy outlook. Those of us who invest on wall street know better and are taking advantage of this rebound. We do not make money by working a 40 hour week. We make money by investing while we work a 40 hour week to pay our bills. The North East (industrial states with higher populations are stagnant but slowly recovering). 2014 is going to be a rebound year for the North East. The US is no longer at war. The economy is moving away from a military economy to a consumer economy and is positioned well. Using Detroit as a SOLE example of US cities in turmoil is a gross mis-representation and I am in total disagreement with the analogy presented here USA related.

    This is the same argument that the DLP is making to justify the failing economy in Barbados and it is completely incorrect..

    @ Pachamama The article was well written and was well “articulated” if I am allowed to say that. But don’t be like Japan during world war 2 by using one city or state (in their case California) to determine the strength of the US. The numbers paint a less dramatic picture than the article.

    Copy and paste below.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Unemployment Rates for States (Note that 60% of the states have unemployment rates under 7%)

    Unemployment Rates for States Monthly Rankings Seasonally Adjusted
    Nov. 2013p
    Rank State Rate

    1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.6
    2 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.6
    3 NEBRASKA 3.7
    4 UTAH 4.3
    5 HAWAII 4.4
    5 IOWA 4.4
    5 VERMONT 4.4
    5 WYOMING 4.4
    9 MINNESOTA 4.6
    10 KANSAS 5.1
    10 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.1
    12 MONTANA 5.2
    13 OKLAHOMA 5.4
    13 VIRGINIA 5.4
    15 IDAHO 6.1
    15 MISSOURI 6.1
    15 TEXAS 6.1
    15 WEST VIRGINIA 6.1
    19 ALABAMA 6.2
    20 LOUISIANA 6.3
    20 WISCONSIN 6.3
    22 FLORIDA 6.4
    22 MAINE 6.4
    22 MARYLAND 6.4
    22 NEW MEXICO 6.4
    26 ALASKA 6.5
    26 COLORADO 6.5
    26 DELAWARE 6.5
    29 WASHINGTON 6.8
    30 MASSACHUSETTS 7.1
    30 SOUTH CAROLINA 7.1
    32 INDIANA 7.3
    32 OREGON 7.3
    32 PENNSYLVANIA 7.3
    35 NEW YORK 7.4
    35 NORTH CAROLINA 7.4
    35 OHIO 7.4
    38 ARKANSAS 7.5
    39 CONNECTICUT 7.6
    40 GEORGIA 7.7
    41 ARIZONA 7.8
    41 NEW JERSEY 7.8
    43 TENNESSEE 8.1
    44 KENTUCKY 8.2
    45 MISSISSIPPI 8.3
    46 CALIFORNIA 8.5
    47 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 8.6
    48 ILLINOIS 8.7
    49 MICHIGAN 8.8
    50 NEVADA 9.0
    50 RHODE ISLAND 9.0


  18. ac…..was it not Donville Inniss who said Barbados’ civil servants are lazy and living off the government, at least get that right, by the way there is no one as lazy as the island’s politicians, they are just glorified pimps living off the taxpayers, every contract that passes through government, they must have a personal stake, ask Inniss, Mottley, Miller, Craig (the scumbags from decades ago…..i can go on all day, if the civil servants are lazy (and they should not be since they are supposed to be the best educated, at taxpayer’s expense no less) it’s because they have also seen how much largasse the politicans over the last decades have designated to themselves…….greedy lazy pigs all.


  19. @JUST ASKING

    “Barbados and the USA should not be mentioned in the same breath”

    A word from the wise is sufficient. Well said. I gave you a thumbs up for this statement. Simple but profound.


  20. so what are we looking at … a weakened economy….. one some say must be handed over to the IMF for revival…while others say the quickest an easiest way out is for privatization of our nations assets…… the later would see us selling out our nations sovereignty to Privateers of profit while “maybe”” breathing new life into our economy ,, both suggestion have a price with the later leaving Barbadians with little or no political input in the affairs of the country albeit going out to vote a govt every five years a govt who would have to give into to the wishes and wants of these new found owners in order for sustainably and survival to maintain…..while on the other hand a people giving up rightful ownership and sovereignty of a nation ever,,,,,


  21. I am sure Sinckler forgot all about this speech he made to fool bajans into keeping him salaried…


  22. The US Economic Recovery is a FARCE!

    In the last 6 yrs more $$$$ have been ARTIFICIALLY CONCOCTED than in the previous 94 yrs of the Federal Reserve combined! Virtually NOTHING has changed for the better BUT the GARGANTUAN quantities of Money are there.
    The essential problem was TOO MUCH $$$$! So how can the SOLUTION be exponentially more money again???????????????

    Do Fire Trucks carry Kerosene to out fires????????? Pleeeeeez!

    This is NOT a failure of Capitalism it is the failure of Leadership. it is corruption, consorting of Wall St and Washington to rip off the middle and lower income groups! UNMITIGATED GREEEEEED!

    Pols want to be re-elected so they are GIVING AWAY the Country’s Gold, Revenue et al to keep the populace at bay. In Europe the critical problem has been RIDICULOUSLY IMPRACTICAL/ ILLOGICAL Socialist Policies!
    You should help the populace BUT they MUST live by high standards to work their way out of the hole too. ETERNAL GIVING is NONSENSE if the receivers are not trying to improve themselves too! The Euro and probably Europe is FINISHED! There will NOT be a Socialist Paradise because it defies HUMAN NATURE! Why should I pay 50%+ Tax so healthy people can stay home and drink beer??? Tom wanted us to pay 70% Tax in Bim 1979-80 so we migrated to Canada and so did most of my academically credentialed family

    The concept that Bajans in power are somehow victims of Corrupt Capitalist Predators is Comedic! Those in Political power are specialists in EXTORTION! This is true throughout the Developing World and to some degree in develop nations. There motto is “You must pay to play”.


  23. Money….we knew that, it’s just the brain dead yardfowls and their political pimps in Bim refuse to see the truth, they still look at the world through rose tinted and corrupt glasses.


  24. @ Askquith
    The basic different between your information and our reading is your reliance on official data. While you are still prepared to have a level of confidence in the reports from the National Statistical Bureau and others, we are not. Example, national unemployment is said to be just over 7 percent. However, the underemployed are not counted – part time workers, workers that are overqualified for minimum wage jobs, workers who cease to receive unemployment benefits, people who have gone back to school, the many who are withdrawing from the work force and emigrating, and the hoards that have given up looking for work as a result of frustration. Several writers including Paul Craigg Roberts, who we greatly admire and who has been cited by Greenie above, have made a persuasive case that the national statistical bureau has been fiddling with the data or the data are consistently compromised for political purposes.

    More generally, the economic indicators like the Dow seems clearly over valued as there is insufficient activity in the real economy to justify soring to over 15K. What we have is financialization gone a muck with computers trading with each other. In fact, more than 80% of the traded shares in the market are traded by computers. It is a war between the programmers. A big crash is coming.

    There are many other issues we could cite, these could include the calculation of national debt, the role of rating agencies, the intentional suppression of the price of gold and other real value, the eagerness of world countries to repatriate gold, etc

    You say that some of our arguments are being made by the DLP. Well, they were also started to be made by the BLP pre 2008. That the DLP makes a part of our arguments cannot be enough to detract from our more general critique that both parties Bees and Dees have failed and should be both removed from the body politic. Because they are saying some things that are correct it should not mean that they failures should be minimized or that those things, alone, are unrepresentative of the truth.


  25. @ac

    nothing matters excepting where will we get US$ on the long term to support our overvalued Barbados dollar. If we sell things without increasing the FX inflows, it will be a short term only fix.


  26. @Askquith
    The Unemployment Stats are PURE FICTION!

    There are millions of workers who have been unemployed for more than 2 yrs and are now ASSUMED to be NOT out of work because they have fallen off the Insurance rolls. Furthermore, millions that found work went from $40,000/ yr jobs to $20,000/ yr!!!

    The effective Unemployment Rate is NORTH of 15%! Checkout ShadowGovernment Statistics.com by John Williams.

    While 2013 was an excellent year for US Stocks the reality now is thatthere are many warning signs of seriouis Stock troubles ahead
    1 Margin Debt is at ALL time highs

    2 CAPE ratio at 25+ is top 5 in last 100 yrs

    3 Q Ratio very high

    4 Total Market Value to GDP top 5 in laast 100yrs

    5 Sentiment ie emotional view is very OPTIMISTIC which translates to be a major RED Flag!

    This is brief and does NOT tell you when the brown stuff will hit the fan! BUT you would be well advised to monitor closely and set maximum downside targets that you are willing to live with.


  27. @Pacha
    We agree. I did not see your last post but certainly fleshed out the facts for you!


  28. Please explain how the US economy is on the rebound but the FED continues to print billions of dollars. What are we missing?

    On 5 January 2014 15:11, Barbados Underground


  29. @pachamana

    The Dow is not overvalued. You should be aware that interest rates in the USA are much lower than in Barbados. Somewhere around 1%. Long term bonds are paying less than 3%. Many of the companies in the Dow are trading at 14 times earnings on market value. Canadian banks have p/e ratios of around 11. Pension funds in North America cannot pay pensions based on earnings they would get from interest of 1%. Where else can investments be made to yield 10% or better. A good amount of the Dow’s pick up this year was catch up. from the 2009 issue. When Obama took office the Dow was 7500. 2009 will not be happening again and if your are a investor and concerned about a large drop put in sell stop limit orders an
    protect your investment. People who express fear on investments are those that mostly don’t have a lot of money and have not taken the time to learn how to protect themselves. 2014 will be a great year for North America.


  30. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJU8jFKQYh4&w=560&h=315]

    @ Askquith

    Totally agree, “Barbados and the USA should not be mentioned in the same breath”. United States is immensely larger than Barbados. The United States unlike Barbados has an abundance of natural resources and NOT third world. The United States is tons of mountains above Barbados.


  31. America national debt now stands at 17.5 trillion dollars and if I’m not mistaken, it stood at 8 trillion when President Obama assumed the office of the presidency back in 2008. You do the math…! The economy may show slight signs of improvement but there is a national debt that haven’t yet been paid.


  32. @SITH
    While you are correct that low interest rates have helped the S&P rebound you should ask yourself
    1 What happens when rates increase?

    2 Low rates in the face of few profitable alternatives drives people into Stocks BUT that is artificial and for the wrong knee-jerk reasons.

    3 Dont forget that Profit Margins are very high already so will go SOUTH with fairly high probability.

    The point is that a trading and protective monitoring attitude is very necessary.

    The market is long overdue for a stiff correction at least. I would also monitor the First 5 days of the year rule as this maybe very instructive.


  33. It is interesting to scan today’s newspaper (the focal point of the discussion) to note that the state of the economy was addressed over 5 years ago in this forum. We have the editorial, a guest column by Terrence Farrell et al all preaching what we have been discussing on BU. During this time we have been accused of being doomers. It has come to pass.

    On 5 January 2014 15:39, Barbados Underground


  34. ….But America has a population of some 300 million people and who knows whether or not its natural resources are sufficient enought to sustained this enormous populaton? Barbados on the other hand, has a population of some 270 thousand people. And it ought to be capable of sustained this rather small population, irrespective of its lack of natural resources.


  35. Ralph Jemmott’s column is required reading.

    On 5 January 2014 15:52, Barbados Underground

  36. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ ac | 05/01/2014 at 10:47 am |
    “..while others say the quickest an easiest way out is for privatization of our nations assets…… the later would see us selling out our nations sovereignty to Privateers of profit while “maybe”” breathing new life into our economy…”

    But ac, be fair for once, isn’t that the case today where the vast majority of private sector enterprises are owned by foreign interests aka “Privateers of profit”? Don’t Trinidadian and Canadian interests own and control the commanding heights of the financial, banking, importation, distribution and retail sectors (except for SOL and other minor players)?

    Why can’t native black entrepreneurs own and control whatever else of a commercial nature can be divested from the public sector?

    We shall be marking your position every time your political weather vane changes as this DLP administration is forced to renege on its so-called non-negotiable anti-privatization propaganda.
    Why not listen for once to commonsense and advise your stupidly stubborn DLP administration to be proactive in dictating and driving the inevitable privatization programme in the direction that would bring about your much desired black economic enfranchisement?


  37. @ Mark Fenty

    http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Caribbean/Barbados/gdp-per-capita

    Barbados GNP is mainly tourism. Right? What is the ranking of this product compared to other islands?


  38. @Look on
    …I am quite sure it is peanuts in comparison to that of U.S.


  39. http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/10/news/economy/sp-u-s-credit-rating/index.html

    @ Mark Fenty

    What is the Barbados 2013 credit rating? Below junk bond status. Right? What is the United States 2013 S&P credit rating? Stable, Not in junk bond status, Right?


  40. Barbados needs not to hold on to so-called state assets. The Government should not be competing with the private sector. The Government should be creating the environment that enables the private sector and regulate same.

    So ac , the government can and should sell those so-called assets and get some foreign exchange wherever possible. There was nothing wrong with selling the Barbados National Bank, for example, something for which some people have condemned Owen Arthur.

    It is time to sell some of the money eating agencies like the Transport Board. It is time to Privatize . It will happen and must happen. Barbados is small enough for transport to be taken care of by a majority of private concerns. It used to be so many years ago . Why not now ?


  41. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_United_States

    @ Mark Fenty

    The United States attracts millions of tourists each year. The United States, however, is not TOTALLY DEPENDENT on its tourism industry as is Barbados. You of course know this. Right?


  42. @LOOK
    The reasons the US Bonds are not JUNK is OBFUSCATION and POWER!
    Also they still produce the Global Reserve Currency, although that is temporary!


  43. @Fenty and Look

    What is the objective of engaging in a nonsense comparative argument USA vs Barbados? Please don’t highjack the discussion.

    On 5 January 2014 16:14, Barbados Underground


  44. The MoF will stage a press conference on Monday which comes ahead of the GoCB review of 2013 and final quarter performance.

  45. St George's Dragon Avatar
    St George’s Dragon

    @ Hot in the sun
    I agree with everything you say. This post is racist Marxism which bears no resemblance to the real world.


  46. @just asking

    so to get FX for these assets they will have to be sold to “outside interests”…foreign ownership. It was not so many years ago that there were discussions about Barbados becoming a Province of Canada. Too bad that did not happen. One quick transaction would have been a better soloution than what is now being proposed. Selling things such as the airport and other holdings to foreign investors will lead to further declines in FX balances because foreign owners don’t want to be paid their profits in Barbados dollars. Where would they exactly spend this money? Just another problem of having a fixed peg and FX controls. It limits your options. You might get some short term cash into the FX account but you know once you give up control you loose. For example if I owned the airport why would I want American Airlines to pay its landing fees to me in Barbados dollars in Barbados? Would I not want it paid in the USA or some other domain. The fixed peg with FX controls is an anchor for Barbados..


  47. @DAVID
    Sometimes Doom and Gloom is reality.
    The real negative is not being realistic and not Coalescing in a non-partisan way!!! We have been calling for this for years.

    I was in Bim over Christmas and it was interesting that a friend who is a successful Chartered Accountant with his own firm, and a HC and Uni grad, has set up a kitchen garden for his family in the plot beside his home. Another good former HC buddy has done the same. ALL Bajans should adopt this attitude because when the trouble really starts the food maybe scarce and the bullets might have to fly!


  48. @ Moneybrain

    Agree with you, Arthur’s advice is showing to be relevant. While we grapple with the issues let us help ourselves.


  49. @ David

    He will have to address this article now that we know of it:-

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jameshenry/2013/12/18/postcard-from-barbados-a-k-a-cyprus-west-part-i-the-cure/

    Forbes Online News: James S. Henry, Contributor
    I report on global issues as an economist, attorney and journalist.

    BUSINESS 12/18/2013 @ 7:09PM 15,407 views
    Postcard From Barbados — a.k.a. ‘Cyprus West’

    Barbados, “the Jewel of the Caribbean,” the tiny easternmost island in the Lesser Antilles with 288,000 year-around inhabitants and lots of very rich foreign visitors and investors, is in the throes of a financial meltdown.

    While its entire GDP is now only worth about $4.2 billion, and its population is smaller than that of Duluth Minnesota, this crisis is worth examining closely. For here we have a very precise example of the “finance curse,” where excessive dependence on high debt, an aggressive offshore haven industry, very low tax rates for high-net worth investors, foreign companies, and banks, and high tax rates for everyone else, have essentially brought this little country to its knees.

    Economists revel in grim statistics, especially at Christmas time. In recent weeks Barbados’ current account deficit has soared to 12 percent of GDP, and the island is down to 10 weeks of reserves, compared with 16.4 weeks last June – which was already the lowest level since 2008. Deficit spending is 6 percent of GDP and headed higher.

    At 94 percent, Barbados’ ratio of public debt to GDP, already the Caribbean’s second highest, is fast approaching Cypriot levels.[i]

    Not surprisingly, in October, a $250 mm Bajan bond offering in the US market had to be yanked after it was greeted with howls of derision. In late November, S&P downgraded the long-term rating on Bajan bonds for the third time in two years to BB-, below investment grade, the same rating as Gabon and Nigeria.

    That is very bad news for 126,000 long-time contributors to Barbados’ National Insurance Fund, who depend on it for old age, disability, unemployment, and severance benefits. [ii] At least 60 percent of the Fund’s $2 billion is invested in this dodgy Bajan junk – it now finances a third of Barbados’ entire public debt.[iii]

    To fix this unbelievable mess, the Bajan government, led by PM Freundal Stuart of the Democratic Labor Party, has lately adopted the same orthodox IMF playbook that has worked so many wonders everywhere else in the developing world. Appropriately enough, the high-level IMF team concluded a week-long emergency mission to Bridgetown on Friday December 13. [iv] Shortly before its departure, Finance Minister Chris Sinckler announced the island’s first IMF “structural adjustment” program since 1991.[v]

    “Structural adjustment” is an IMF euphemism for an economic phlebotomy. Under the terms of Sinckler’s IMF-approved program, 3000 out of Barbados’ 26,000 government workers will be fired by March 1. All new government hires are frozen for 5 years. Senior officials get an immediate 10 percent pay cut; other civil servant will remain subject to a wage freeze. The government has also announced cuts in government travel budgets and college tuition subsidies, the suspension of an important medical clinic project, [vi] and increased VAT taxes. The Barbados Chamber of Commerce expects the private sector to fire an additional 1000 workers, in an economy where unemployment is already 11 percent. All these layoffs and other afflictions will soon be felt by least 20-30,000 Bajan families. And this is just the beginning.

    Given the IMF’s key role here, there will undoubtedly be more spending cuts and tax increases to follow. Indeed, as discussed in Part II, there’s a chance that the IMF might actually be able to force through some badly-needed tax reforms. Given the IMF’s track record elsewhere, however, as well as the overwhelming opposition of elite interests both at home and abroad, we’re not betting on it.

    The other disturbing news from this tropical paradise is that Barbados also now intends to borrow up to $225 million from Credit Suisse AG Cayman on an emergency basis, in order to shore up its reserves, maintain the sacrosanct 1:2 peg of the Bajan dollar to the $US, and continue funding various pet projects. The terms are usurious: $3 million in upfront fees for the bankers; IMF conditionality; a waiver of sovereign immunity; and variable interest rates up to 775 basis points over LIBOR,[vii] which Credit Suisse and other global banks have recently been accused of rigging.[viii]

    But even these generous terms may not be easy to syndicate. The price of existing Bajan bonds has noise-dived, and investors are now effectively demanding more than 9 percent – a junk bond rate.[ix] If the ultimate terms are even more costly, unless this loan is extraordinarily well spent, it may only aggravate Barbados’ fiscal problems — debt service already consumes a third of the government budget.

    All told, all these measures remind us of the desperate 1991 IMF intervention, when 4000 government layoffs and sharp real wage cuts were also imposed. It took Barbados’ real per capita income level and unemployment rate more than six years to recover from that phlebotomy.

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