est. 2007

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A DEM View Of the Recent CADRES Poll

Submitted by Stephen Williams According to the latest Cadres Poll, Freundel is out front. Wow!!! With that said, the DEMS must, therefore, press home the advantage as a result of our favourable showing. However, I am somewhat sceptical about Wickham’s findings, that despite the fact that Freundel is ahead of Arthur, the DLP is still…

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Submitted by Stephen Williams
Prime Minister Stuart eases pass Arthur in recent CADRES Poll
Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart eases pass Opposition Owen Arthur in recent poll – photo credit: Nation newspaper

According to the latest Cadres Poll, Freundel is out front. Wow!!! With that said, the DEMS must, therefore, press home the advantage as a result of our favourable showing.

However, I am somewhat sceptical about Wickham’s findings, that despite the fact that Freundel is ahead of Arthur, the DLP is still marginally trailing the Bees. I wonder if it is a case of who pays the piper, calls the tune! We all know the obvious bias of the Nation Group of companies. But, however you analyse the poll, it’s a body-blow for the Bees.

I am no political scientist, but I believe I have more than a modicum of common sense. It stands to reason, and rightly so, that if Freundel has surged ahead (in my humble opinion, he was ahead for some time) he would consequently bring along the DLP.

So, it must have been heart-wrenching for the Nation and the know-it-all Wickham, the avowed nemeses of the Prime Minister, to admit that Freundel Stuart is ahead of ‘Owing Arthur’ in their latest poll. Only last month, they were arguing it will be a landslide for their side. This must be a bitter pill for them to swallow.

The DLP cannot be attracting MASSIVE crowds at every turn, and still be trailing. Look at the West Terrace meeting. The struggling Bees said we had only 4,000 last Friday night. Well, if that is how they estimated it, from here on in, we will be attracting as much as 20, 000 at all of our remaining mass meetings. Lord have mercy!!! Can you imagine the PEOPLE? As they say, it would be like Federation. You do the math – which venue will hold the people?

For some time, and I see it day after day, night after night, the people of Barbados have been warming to Freundel; not only Dear Loving People, but a cross section of Barbadians – even reasonable Bees. And, do you know why? He is DECENT. They don’t have any dirt on him. No scandals, no cussing, no infelicities – just a calm, cool, steady and astute leader.

We have constantly reminded the public what Harold Wilson said decades ago in Britain (1964) ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Remember, the Bees were beating their hollow chests a few months ago. So, we have to stay the course, and be on the attack. The BLP will not take these poll results ‘lying-down’. Those guys will go on the offensive and will be ultra-aggressive. Lies, accusations and dirt will rain down on us, as only the Bees can dish out.

I guess the last poll was done more than a week or so ago – because I detected a more sober-sided and restrained Wickham, while he hosted Brass Tacks recently – and I suspected his findings weren’t very self-satisfying. If the poll were done between last Wednesday and Friday, we would have gone clear. But, you know what! My reading of the mood of the people is: WE HAVE GONE CLEAR. IT’S NOW A SPRINT TO THE FINISH

So, as the momentum grows, we have to be vigilant. Stick to our message, and attack them and counter-attack them without offending the sensibilities of voters. We have to be like the proverbial Boy Scout – Be Prepared! Remember, to be forewarned is to be fore-armed.

With God’s help, we won’t be the ones seeing red come Thursday night. COME OUT AND VOTE, AND URGE EVERBODY YOU ENCOUNTER TO DO LIKEWISE – VOTE DEMS, VOTE DEMS ALL DAY.

Now, as far as ‘Owing’ Arthur is concerned, we have to go after him as a failed leader. Since the BLP has been promoting leadership as an issue, we must continue to dissect Arthur’s leadership, his mismanagement and his abuse of power when he was at the helm.

There are countless instances of his autocratic and ruthless style and his impetuous temper that left scores of Barbadians not only scared stiff of him but also offended, hurt and devastated. Too many persons were paralysed with fear of OSA, to the extent they became immobilised. We have passed that point; we cannot go back to arrogance and oppression. Those days are behind us. WE WON’T GO BACK.

It’s senseless returning to warm-over, greasy soup. The old people always tell you such a diet isn’t good for your stomach; it gives you Montezuma’s Revenge – aka diarrhoea – ask the wind-up doll, Muscle Mary.

  1. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    This is a rather interesting finding, though not unusual. Quite often leaders are more popular than their partied – whether in opposition or government – and vice versa.
    What is more interesting if if Wickham were to publish his polling methodology so it could be interrogated.
    How big are his samples? How representative are they of the population? The period the survey was carried out? Were they face to face interviews, internet or telephone? etc.

  2. Bdos Underground Talkshop Avatar
    Bdos Underground Talkshop

    …

  3. firefox Avatar
    firefox

    Wow………..

  4. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    If the DEMS win, will it really be Stuart going to Gov’t House or will it be Sinckler?

    That is the time for the 11 to move.

  5. David Avatar
    David

    @Hal

    Here is the methodology of the poll.

    http://bajan.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/cadresmethology.pdf

  6. fire_blackfox Avatar
    fire_blackfox

    Not so fast guys, wait until tuesday……………. I am told that this Poll will give a much different picture. This one is taken after the launching of the manefesters.

    Sent from my BlackBerry® device from Digicel

  7. Anthony Avatar
    Anthony

    while it does show frundel being more popular is also predict goveremnt loseing 7 seats and becoming the oppositions. The polling question while usefully if we had presidential elections does not tell us what happen in each constitency as the voters will be only voting for their candidate and not who will be pm.

  8. Carl King Avatar
    Carl King

    This is a psychological body blow for OSA and the Bees. Full court press from the Dems over the next four days will inflict a stunning defeat on them.

  9. ac Avatar
    ac

    look OSA is his own worst enemy. his past would always be a stumbling block in his way. his constant and undermining attacks of insulting the intelligence of the barbados people would never be forgotten and his uncanny abilty to use people as a stepping stone for his selfserving political ambitions would remain dormant in the minds of those who hate him as well as those who loved him. Those things would be remebered as OSA greatest legacy.

  10. David Avatar
    David

    Ellis hosted an interesting program today. One point which we need to explore/agitate for between now and the next election is to get the candidates/politicians to participate in a system where we the people get them to answer the questions we want answered. Currently the politicians control the narrative.

  11. Fractured BLP Avatar
    Fractured BLP

    Edmund Hinkson is reporting that OSA called him today and bathe him in cuss after he had to leave out OSA from his meeting tonight.

    That is the enlightened leadership of OSA !

  12. Observing(...) Avatar
    Observing(…)

    @david
    How does the methodology compare?

    @firefox
    Similar whispers are being heard

    @stephen williams
    “We have gone clear, it’s now a sprint to the finish”

    Be careful there sir. The last hurdle is always a tricky one. Complacency can be detrimental.

    Just observing

  13. Marlo Ray Avatar
    Marlo Ray

    Mr Williams your arguments about a landslide is quite simplistic. You will have to differentiate votes from seats won. In the 2008 election the DLP won 20 seats but when an analysis of the votes are done there was no great difference. That’s the nature of First Past the Post System. So before you start gloating check the voting patterns and the swing analysis.

  14. Marlo Ray Avatar
    Marlo Ray

    Williams ur comments are just nasty partisan crap.

  15. David Avatar
    David

    @Marlo Ray

    Good point, our first pass the pole system can distort.

  16. David Avatar
    David

    Communication circulated by BLP:

    A memo to Barbados from BLP Campaign Manager Jimmy Serrao

    The Barbados Labour Party data team has been crunching the numbers in the latest Nation/CADRES poll and despite the DLP spin, there is much good news for the BLP Team in this survey:

    The BLP is Winning. We are winning a plurality of votes and the swing analysis suggests a BLP victory.
    Under the DLP, the Country is on the Wrong Track. According to the survey, 40% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, a number outside the margin of error. Around the region and the world, governments are not generally re-elected when people believe the country is on the wrong track. Undecided voters tend to swing toward the opposition party when they see the country as on the wrong track.
    We’re Running the Superior Campaign. Voters believe that in terms of both organisation and content/quality, the BLP is running a superior campaign.
    The Leadership Numbers Are Too Close to Call. There is a +/-5% margin of error on this survey. To draw sweeping conclusions when the gap is within the margin of error is statistically unsound and unwise. Further, more people disapprove of Freundel’s leadership than approve of his leadership and he has a higher disapproval rating than Owen Arthur. Finally, it is important to note that in the Nation/CADRES poll conducted just days before the 15 January 2008 general elections, Owen Arthur was viewed as more popular than David Thompson. In fact, the gap wasn’t 3% – in 2008, Owen Arthur enjoyed a 7% leadership advantage. In spite of Owen Arthur’s outside the margin of error leadership advantage, the Democratic Labour Party was victorious in that election.

    This election is incredibly important. The do nothing Freundel Stuart government has given Barbados an economy that has shrunk by 2.7% and lost 16,000 jobs. We’ve seen a 30% rise in the cost of living and a higher VAT which means that things at the store cost a little bit more. Our electricity bills and water bills are up. And, Freundel Stuart has done nothing about it.

    Team BLP, now is the time to take action. It’s clear that we’re going to need to make sure every BLP supporter votes. So, make sure to get out to vote, and sign up to volunteer and get involved with our campaign to bring a better tomorrow to Barbados. This poll sends an important warning to all of us: we cannot take any seat or any vote for granted! Make sure to vote. Tell your friends/family to vote BLP. And, volunteer in your constituency and help us deliver the win.

    It’s time to put our country back on the right track and make tomorrow better than today!

    Sincerely,

    Jimmy Serrao

  17. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @David
    Thanks for the outline of the broad approach made by Cadres in their surveys. But I am still at a lost as to accuracy. Unless I have read it incorrectly, the popularity of a leader does not indicate the likely outcome of a general election for, as I has said, in the first past the post system of elections it is common for leaders to have a popularity at variance with the party s/he leads.
    And, as the outline has admitted, the survey is not detailed enough to give any indication of any likely constituency outcomes. In the first past the post, and one MP per constituency, a national poll cannot be an accurate indicator, unless the survey’s sample accurately reflects constituencies and demographics.
    It seems to me as if this can be seen as no more than a sophisticated Vox Pop. We still need to know more about the sample.

  18. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    I have, David.

  19. ac Avatar
    ac

    the DLP TEAM is fully MOBOLISED and ready to GO. on feb21st. The poll is not where we look .WE look to the people of this country who are bound and determined to established DEcent and GOOD leadership for BARBADOS where we can raised our heads head and fly the flag with PRIDE and HONOUR, DEMS all the WAY if that is the BARBADOS one aspired to live in.

  20. Oilman Avatar
    Oilman

    LOL. Now de polls telling a slightly different story, some who otherwise agreed with the poll results earlier now bashing de polls. LOL boy partisan ppl can really be a deluded lot.

  21. FED UP Avatar
    FED UP

    96 hours:00:00 remaining

    If the DEMS think Beenie Man gine mek them win, them wrong. We know what we have to do and we dont need to make a fuss or fight. Wait for clinical execution, flawless victory.

  22. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    A quite interesting poll.

    Please note that CADRES is doing the second poll at its own expense to verify if it’s a trend or whether, as Peter Wickham put it, it’s a “wobble.”

    Note also that Harold Hoyte mentioned in his article that he has seen recent internal constituency polling from both sides with respect to St. Michael, St. James, St. George (South), St. Philip (South) and Christ Church which are at variance with the latest CADRES poll.

    Note, too, that Bobby Morris, the DLP Campaign Manager, on Friday, was knocking what he expected would be the poll results. He sounded very much like he was doing advanced damage control. This suggests to me that this poll result is as much a surprise to him as to anyone else because it does not jibe with his internal polling.

    So, I will wait until Tuesday and see what the new poll says.

  23. David Avatar
    David

    @Hal

    Maybe the Nation newspaper invoked editorial license with this story. Wickham, to be fair to him, has suggested a BLP victory albeit close. In a first pass the post what is close anyway? Perhaps the consideration here is that the success of the party in general elections in Barbados has historically hitched to the popularity of the leaders.

  24. ac Avatar
    ac

    what damage control. Morris was strategically positioning himself for the worst. While hoping for the best .

  25. Oilman Avatar
    Oilman

    @DavidB
    You need to read what Hoyte said again. What he said basically was that his own polling suggested that the swing against the government as posited by CADRES was not reflected in his own polling, hence, if you check his list of seats and their allocations, you will see that he has St.Philip South going to the DEMS. Now this goes against what CADRES would have predicted base on the swing predicted in earlier polls. DavidB, I think you read the paper but sought to make an interpretation to favour your political bias.

  26. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    It is quite possible to win the popular vote by a narrow majority or even lose the popular vote and still win big in the seat count.

    The DLP in 1961 lost the popular vote but won the government.

    The other point is that the CADRES methodology has not been tested in a very close election. It has been reliable over the past 20 years to predict the results of all our elections accurately; i.e. within a very close margin. But those elections were not that close.

  27. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    @ Oilman

    Let me quote Harold Hoyte for you:

    ” What further creates a conundrum is the fact that U have seen numbers from individual constituency polling FOR BOTH PARTIES in parts of St. Michael, St. George, St. Philip, St. James and Christ Church that are inconsistent with what the CADRES results suggest.”

    I am sure Harold Hoyte does not do his own polling. He was clearly referring to the parties’ internal data.

  28. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    Of course the “U” should be “I”. My bad.

  29. David Avatar
    David

    @DavidB

    Maybe you are onto something suggested by Wickham’s willingness to run another poll. Has Wickham done this before.

  30. Observing(...) Avatar
    Observing(…)

    @david and davidb
    The poll beautifully captures the conflict facing most voters. Stuart too laid back and slow. Arthur is too has been. What choice do I really have?

    In boxes other than st.peter and st. Michael South, party support will rule supreme. Followed by preference for individual candidate. Followed by view of better party going forward for the economy. Followed by leadership.

    There are no coattails here.

    Just Observing

  31. Oilman Avatar
    Oilman

    @DavidB
    I have read it again and I read the paragraphs before and after. Now I can understand why you would interpret the piece the way you have. But many of the ten seats Hoyte has given to the DLP are seats that are supposed to go to the BLP based on the swing predicted. So are you saying that the conundrum is with Hoyte?

  32. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    @David

    It seems that he could not get the Nation to fund it, but decided to do it anyway.

    Wickham, “. . . however, our sponsor has agreed to this single exercise, which was conducted last weekend.”

    Wickham again,”CADRES has therefore taken the decision to return to the field (since last Friday) to test public opinion one more time before the election.”

    I hope I am not reading too much into his words, but I think my interpretation is fair.

    And, as far as I can recall, polls have not been done before within less than a week of each other. But I could be wrong.

  33. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    @Oilman

    I understand Hoyte to be saying that he is going with the swing suggested in the poll and adjusting it for factors such as the prominence of the incumbent to arrive at his analysis. I don’t get the impression he incorporated the internal polling data.

    I think he said as much.

    So, that’s how he seemed to have resolved the conundrum.

  34. Oilman Avatar
    Oilman

    @DavidB
    The only thing that can solve this so called conundrum is the counting of de votes on election night.

  35. DavidB Avatar
    DavidB

    @ Oilman

    Agreed.

    However, a clue one way or the next, may come on Tuesday.

    I have an open mind on this.

  36. Oilman Avatar
    Oilman

    @DavidB
    I don’t think Tuesday going to make much of a difference. In my view, the DLP ran a good campaign under the circumstances. I said back in 2012 that the large number of uncertain voters would be a critical factor in the election. The uncertain voters, in my view, are mainly those person who analyse the issues and tend to be more discerning. Hence, no pie in the sky promises will catch them. I think the BLP has made too many promises in terms of all the taxes they intend to cut and have not shown clearly how they will deal with the debt. In other words, the BLP has presented what many see as a gimmick to win votes and the uncertain voters, as the latest poll shows, are moving to the DLP who have presented what many see as a more realistic set of promises.

    I think Wickham has been correctly capturing the public opinion as it has evolved since polling started last year. I think Wickham is a bit surprised by the change of events but one needs to examine the campaigns of each party to see why this latest poll is showing these results. I think the poll is spot on!

  37. Clone Avatar
    Clone

    Peter would have out manipulated himself if he brings a poll on Tuesday. The damage have already been done.

  38. JUST ASKING Avatar
    JUST ASKING

    YOU DLP JOKERS DO NOT EVEN KNOW WHEN YOU ARE BEING SET UP FOR A —“””””KNOCK -OUT PUNCH “”””
    BLP = 26 SEATS
    DLP = 3 SEATS
    Wunna think that this is a joke game nuh ?

    JUST ASKING

  39. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    @Hal

    i am amazed that u asked about the methodology, the sample size among other things. Even though i have not read peter’s writings in a long time, I have previously read how he goes about his polling, but u that claim to know so much about barbados should know how polls are conducted. That is how an Asw some one who dabble in researc. polls can be manipulated to get the result u want, but if u have a reputation to protect, u wont.

    @all

    do u think that the dlp was relying on peter’s poll? Certainly not.

  40. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    @observing

    i must apoligize to u, my comments should have been to just asking, that jack ass.

  41. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    @oilman

    u r correct, the uncertain or floating voters r the one who will do a lot of discerning, even thaou i am not that smart, i have already recornized that owing cannot take the tak off entertainment and housing allowance, that will result in a shortfall of 30 million dollars, as the combined amout to be taxed is over 100 million. He has friends in the Inland Revenue who could have told him that.

  42. PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926-2013 AND SEE MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS Avatar
    PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926-2013 AND SEE MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS

    Today Brass Tacks with TONY BEST, CARIBNEWS , news PAPER IN YORK . NEVER RETURN EMAIL OR PHONE CALLS? WHEN IN NY we WENT TO THE CITY OFFICE 2 TIMES. HE GOT TO BE THE SAME PERSON , BLOCKING THE NEWS ON THE VIOLET BECKLES CASE? As we see it now that the news is not getting out in to the America public or Caribbeans. Is Best at his worse ? We see him as a gate .keeper .
    Is Tony Best same family to MP Best? If so We now know why he would run from this true story. COVER AND COVER UP
    VOTE TRUTH NOT PARTY C.U.P
    now we see why short dates to vote

  43. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    just come pack from a ride through the constituency with the representative and the response was magwonderful. Yellow shirts galore.

  44. David Avatar
    David

    Understand Liz Thompson just did a number on Donville Inniss. She referred to BU asking the traditional media to pickup the stories from we have carried here.

  45. JUST ASKING Avatar
    JUST ASKING

    We will see who is the JACK-ASS on Friday 22 February
    If wunna think that we want 5 years of Freundel Stuart and the DLP. YOU ARE SO WRONG IT AINT FUNNY

  46. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    @just

    u seem to stuck in time, r u?

  47. Damani Avatar
    Damani

    @david she really did a number in him indeed! And I think it needs to be exposed because the media can’t keep hiding this issue from the wider public. They need to put aside their respective biases (b and d) and engage in true journalism

  48. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    liz has no legitamcy, the bath, the contract she gave to her huband and the greenlan dump. If she had kept her lust for the sealy guy secret he would not have control over her and advise her to go to greenland.

  49. JUST ASKING Avatar
    JUST ASKING

    IF OWEN ARTHUR SAYS HE CAN DO IT, HE CAN DO IT.
    WHEN OWEN said in 1994 that he could bring back Barbados from the depths of despair that Sandy and the DLP had taken us to stream of economic prosperity, DEMS yardfowls were saying that he had no experience as a Prime Minister and that he was fooling the people and could not create 30, 000 jobs when he said that JOBS # 1 was JOBS.
    Hello Owen Arthur can bring back Barbados, he can put money in People’s pockets.
    Fumble the Bungler cannot get it done , he does not have a clue. He can fool diehards DLP supporters but not the discerning voter who is meeting it hard as shite

    Do you know how long we were waiting to get rid of FREUNDEL STUART AND THE DLP ?
    DO YOU THINK THAT WE GWINE LET THIS OPPORTUNITY PASS TO DUMP THE DEMS ??

    JUST ASKING !!!!

  50. TO THE POINT Avatar
    TO THE POINT

    Didnt she do the same thing last time and he cut her ass?

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