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Choice Of An Elections Date

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Submitted by Old Onions Bag
Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart has the responsibility to fix the general election date

How does a Prime Minister go about choosing the right day to have General Elections? What must be the essential ingredients that will weigh to his party’s advantage to secure another term? Constitutionally that nominal day is set as five years from the date of the last elections date with a ninety day grace in the eventuality of an unforeseen emergency. Given this criteria, the latest this election date should be set is April 30th, 2013. It would take some fortitude to postpone the upcoming elections until that date, as such might be seen as desperate and lack of confidence.

So what is left to be considered using most likely decision trees and PERT (project evaluation and research techniques) analysis  as necessary inputs to these models? Using today’s date as the start or current date, what other factors of interest would be of interest to the Hon. Prime Minister, should he, if being a scientific mind, consider as relevant and most crucial to aid in his decision making? Here is our rack, what we considered as most relevant :

  • Crop Over
  • Rihanna show
  • End of most businesses financial year
  • Month of October..deadest month of the year
  • St. John’s polyclinic completion
  • Independence celebrations
  • Start of the 2013 tourist season
  • Christmas season

We consider these to be our red letter days as input to our models. These are times of worthy note and could play a crucial part in decision making. Prioritizing and repositioning events with probabilities responsive…. dates of most likeliness, with margins of error, place that day as..XXXX…(Much guarded secret)…..Do your own calculations. Have fun !

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161 responses to “Choice Of An Elections Date”

  1. Observing (and modeling) Avatar
    Observing (and modeling)

    Gee onions…the next thing you will probably come up with is a simulation model for men to understand women and translate their thoughts so that we do exactly what they really want and not what we think.

    Good luck on that AND the election date. 🙂

  2. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Observing
    Why don’t you stop giving out your secrets online….incidentally we have a model that may be of use to you, lol…..More than most …this date is now quite predictable as the clock has almost ran out …giving little options…we believe you too agree….being a logical observer.

  3. Fractured BLP Party Avatar
    Fractured BLP Party

    Hello Bags,
    Here are some variables I thought you would have included in your projections for the next General election date :

    1. The day Owen Arthur apologise to Barbadians about denying knowledge of an FBI file on the floor of Parliament in June 2012 ( we have the tape of 2003 to prove what he said) WHY PUT A LIAR BACK IN THE SEAT OF GOVERNMENT ?

    2. The day Owen Arthur summon enough testicular fortitutde to call the PAC to account about the Bridgetown Marina Project as he promised ( we have the tape of the meeting held at Pegasus Hotel in Jamaica which will explain the correlation of Owen Arthur and this project) WHY PUT A BRIBE TAKER BACK IN THE SEAT OF GOVERNMENT ?

    3. The day Owen Arthur admit that he indeed wrote and told Enrique Inglesias that it is his intention as PM of Barbados to sell Barbadian lands to the highest bidder (PM Freundel Stuart has the letter filed away Lock , Stock and Barrel ) WHY PUT OWEN ARTHUR BACK IN GOVERNMENT TO SELL OUT OUR BARBADIAN HERITAGE ?

    So Onion Bags……you see, Owen Arthur knows the date best….When he come back to BarbadianS a second time and says…..BLAME ME

    That’s when the gates will fly.

    He cannot honestly say Mia Mottley is on his side……because in October 2009 he told Barbadians Mia Mottley is not fit to lead.

    What has she done to convince Owen she ready ???

    Who you think you fooling ?

  4. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Fractured BLP
    Your submission does make sense….may I suggest you Google PERT for a better understanding of the direction intended by this threat. You are allowing emotions to skewer logical thinking.

  5. Observing (and polling) Avatar
    Observing (and polling)

    @fractured
    1. Who gives a rodent’s rear

    2. If Arthur sinks, so too do DB, CS and DT posthumously as the lawsuit is bearing out

    3. Iglesias? Seriously? As an election bomb? Stupse.

    As for Mia, let the budget and the campaign trail speak for themselves.

    Communication – F
    Public relations – D
    Election strategy – D
    Perception and preparation – C

    Seems like the DLP are still behind.

    Observing

    Btw, I’ll say again, despite leadership being an issue, FS has assured that people see BOTH leaders as unpreferred, however, we have to “hold our noses” and vote. Slamming Arthur with slander (true or not) WILL NOT SWAY INDEPENDENTS OR YOUTH TO VOTE DLP nor will it encourage those who “changed” to “hold the line”. The quicker the DLP realise that the more time they can spend on the votes that matter and where they matter.

  6. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    from my days at UWI (thank your Sir Hilary) as a management student I always loved doing PERT. I am going for October.

  7. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Baje
    Care to give your reasoning as a fellow grad ?

  8. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    There is no way The Waterman Commission could conclude before year end…that would be a first …..why did it take so long to start..? One suggestion we heard ..”it was never meant to finish”…..Also why did we not consider passing of Integrity Legislation as an important variable date ?…..Now that would be really stretching it…..” models must be as factual as possible”….Professor Jeremy UWI.

  9. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Decision Trees (example)
    http://gautam.lis.illinois.edu/monkmiddleware/public/analytics/decision_tree.png

  10. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Decision Trees are excellent tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can lay out options and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action.
    Drawing a Decision Tree

    You start a Decision Tree with a decision that you need to make. Draw a small square to represent this towards the left of a large piece of paper.

    From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write that solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so that you can expand your thoughts.

    At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is uncertain, draw a small circle. If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw another square. Squares represent decisions, and circles represent uncertain outcomes. Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution at the end of the line, just leave it blank.

    Starting from the new decision squares on your diagram, draw out lines representing the options that you could select. From the circles draw lines representing possible outcomes. Again make a brief note on the line saying what it means. Keep on doing this until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see leading on from the original decisions.

  11. ac Avatar
    ac

    @onions easy decision not willing to splurge 1.15billion dollars of frebies which the BLP has planned on taking out of my pocket at present my money tree is boned dry

  12. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    ….a decision tree is not a money tree ac….you got your wires crossed.

  13. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    The last PM who was challenged by the DLP to call elections did, and was soundly defeated.
    The DLP is still working hard on the behalf of the people of Barbados, there is still work to be done. It will be completed. We will not be rushed by Onions or anyone else.
    Elections will be called when we know that the time is right.

  14. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    I cant imagine why Seethru is in such a hurry to get his hattrick of defeats.
    We beat him in the last elections, we beat him in St. John and we will pulverise him whenever next general elections is called.

    Why is he in such a hurry to be beaten again.

    Once a looser, twice a looser and when elections are called he will be three times a looser!!!!!!

  15. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Seethru should tell his wife not to pick out any new drapes for Illaro Court anytime soon!!!!!!!

  16. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Five more years on the opposition benches, resign your selves to it.

  17. David (not BU) Avatar
    David (not BU)

    “Once a looser, twice a looser and when elections are called he will be three times a looser!!!!!!”

    i wonder if you told David Thompson that too?

  18. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    I am telling Seethru!!!

  19. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Look Aarson….you bet elections will be called ..but this pathetic game you all found your sad selves in, now got you in this position today…Have you never heard of element of surprise ? You all have lost the advantage…because of all the green-horn blunders DEM fell on….How D hell you expect an electorate to take you all serious..?.The latest ..a Waterman Comm…..what a laugh…..look how all poking fun at you all…from so many different angles…Cardboard…you would make a good prime minister…ya know

  20. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    The people of Barbados are not about to return to their vomit(BLP).

  21. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Now we hear of Dr. Hunte – Cox is secretary….what a laugh…hey there is the new crop ova song..”Joker”…should take a listen……

  22. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Ali Baba and the forty thieves have quiet a wait on their hands!

  23. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Calypsoian Ishaka…..you are so right… “Jokers tek ova”…what a barrel of laughs….aarson get off my thread do….

  24. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Dont forget you BLP people love to count your chickens before they are hatched.
    Recall these famous words from Seethru, “I know wunna want me, but wunna have to vote for my team as well”, at the meeting in Oistins just before the last general elections,

    What was the outcome again of the last general elections that your BLP was going to win? Refresh my memory.

  25. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    The people of Barbados can not afford another Al Barrack.
    $30mil. contract awarded without going to tender.
    The treasury of Barbados can not afford another BLP administration.

  26. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Mia and Seethru, is like trying to mix Oil and water.
    The people of Barbados are not fooled.

  27. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Cardboard
    When you all DEMS go wake up…. and stop dreaming…running in your sleep.

  28. Observant Avatar
    Observant

    The earliest Stuart rings the bell should be late Jan 2013. Whats the hurry there is work to be done.

  29. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

  30. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

  31. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

  32. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    The WHITE BAJANS are waiting on you BLP jokers.
    Not a red cent from them.
    Do you remember how the BLP lambast them in Parliament.
    Be very afraid Seethru.

  33. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Another thing Onions, the people of Barbados want free and fair elections in Barbados. They are afraid that if the BLP is returned to office we will never again have free and fair elections.

    They are afraid because of the rigged BLP elections in Rawle’s constituency. They believe that it was a dry run for the BLP. With the experience gained in rigging a Constituency elections they will roll it out Nation wide to ensure that are never again removed from office.

    The people of Barbados are not going to risk something like that happening.

    You all are too corrupt.

  34. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Oh …hush yard fowl…and get out this thread do…..all the above shows your stupidity ..that’s ALL.

  35. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Rush the brush and throw away the pint.

    Patient man rides donkey.

  36. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    onions

    “Oh …hush yard fowl”

    It takes one to know one.

  37. Political Intelligence Avatar
    Political Intelligence

    Circles got in Owen, Dale and Mia heads…

  38. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    ars….on,

    Answer these questions…..
    Which Minister of the DLP cannot leave Barbados? Was he being investigated by the FBI? (Is this the report Fumble was referring to?)
    Was he caught with a bag full of US$?
    Does he have a hefty account in a US bank, which is now frozen?
    Why was Dennis Lowe removed from the first ministry he held?
    Is it true that he text someone asking for his share?

    I await the answers and then I have more questions!

  39. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    This blog was good and fairly clean until you come back ‘out here with your filth.

  40. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Answer this, Which former big wig BLP MINISTER was denied a UNITED STATES WORK PERMIT?

  41. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Why, Why was he denied a UNITED STATES WORK PERMIT?

  42. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Prodigal
    It was hoped that this thread would have induced thoughts as to help ascertain a probable elections date..Using scientific methods ( as we only submitted two) from amongst us…..before I was rudely interrupted by CCCAarson.

    What ever got into him this morning..as with Irene’s tribe ?….May be elections are closer that some think..having to be drawn up unexpectedly. May be by drawing attention to the event…awaken thoughts of horrors…packing up one’s two twigs and vacating office for another 14 years.
    Whatever, whatever..

    Getting back on thread….Rhianna show…most likely an anti climax…..good feelings will be prevailing..perfect time when the middle class will have forgotten HIGH GAS prices…..good time to slip in a douchla.Let’s associate a high probability of this outcome, before a call of elections….(0.70) Month ..early September..What do you think?

    The Crop Ova Festival cannot be interrupted…$100 Mil in much needed revenue is at stake ..not to mention activity ……Low probability (0.45) Month…. August
    What do you think ?

    TO BE CONTINUED

  43. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Switching to PERT analysis and critical path methods..
    How to Use the Tool:

    As with Gantt Charts, the essential concept behind Critical Path Analysis is that you cannot start some activities until others are finished. These activities need to be completed in a sequence, with each stage being more-or-less completed before the next stage can begin. These are ‘sequential’ activities.

    Other activities are not dependent on completion of any other tasks. You can do these at any time before or after a particular stage is reached. These are non-dependent or ‘parallel’ tasks.
    Drawing a Critical Path Analysis Chart

    Use the following steps to draw a CPA Chart:
    Step 1. List all activities in the plan

    For each activity, show the earliest start date, estimated length of time it will take, and whether it is parallel or sequential. If tasks are sequential, show which stage they depend on.

    For the project example used here, you will end up with the same task list as explained in the article on Gantt Charts (we will use the same example as with Gantt Charts to compare the two techniques).

    Critical Path Analysis and PERT Charts
    Planning & scheduling more complex projects
    Related variants: AOA or Activity-on-Arc Diagrams

  44. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    You all are in such a hurry. Have you never heard that haste makes waste?
    One of your guys was in so much hurry that he stared stealing millions from his employers to finance his campaign.

  45. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    PERT analysis is when the Honourable Prime Minister calls the date as he see fit.

  46. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Just like always, onions.

  47. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Choosing an appropriate date necessitate A GOOD DECISION MAKER
    >>>>>>>>> A LEADER NEEDED…..again

    Decision Making Techniques
    How to Make Better Decisions

    © iStockphoto

    Decision making is an essential leadership skill. If you can learn how to make timely, well-considered decisions, then you can lead your team to well-deserved success. If, however, you make poor decisions, your time as a leader will be brutally short.

    The 40+ techniques explained in this section help you to make the best decisions possible with the information available. These tools help you map out the likely consequences of decisions, balance different factors, and choose the best courses of action to take.

    Start by taking our How Good is Your Decision Making? self-test, and then explore different decision making tools in detail. In particular, take a look at our sections on Choosing Between Options, and Deciding Whether to Go Ahead.

  48. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Did Seethru use PERT analysis just before the last General elections onions.?

  49. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    It certainly didnt work for him!!!!!

  50. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Aarson
    PLeassssssseee…….what is your problem…? Don’t you have homework ?
    Why the interruptions ?

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