Choice Of An Elections Date

Submitted by Old Onions Bag

Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart has the responsibility to fix the general election date

How does a Prime Minister go about choosing the right day to have General Elections? What must be the essential ingredients that will weigh to his party’s advantage to secure another term? Constitutionally that nominal day is set as five years from the date of the last elections date with a ninety day grace in the eventuality of an unforeseen emergency. Given this criteria, the latest this election date should be set is April 30th, 2013. It would take some fortitude to postpone the upcoming elections until that date, as such might be seen as desperate and lack of confidence.

So what is left to be considered using most likely decision trees and PERT (project evaluation and research techniques) analysis  as necessary inputs to these models? Using today’s date as the start or current date, what other factors of interest would be of interest to the Hon. Prime Minister, should he, if being a scientific mind, consider as relevant and most crucial to aid in his decision making? Here is our rack, what we considered as most relevant :

  • Crop Over
  • Rihanna show
  • End of most businesses financial year
  • Month of October..deadest month of the year
  • St. John’s polyclinic completion
  • Independence celebrations
  • Start of the 2013 tourist season
  • Christmas season

We consider these to be our red letter days as input to our models. These are times of worthy note and could play a crucial part in decision making. Prioritizing and repositioning events with probabilities responsive…. dates of most likeliness, with margins of error, place that day as..XXXX…(Much guarded secret)…..Do your own calculations. Have fun !

161 thoughts on “Choice Of An Elections Date


  1. Gaw deng, miss ac is surely like the proverbial pitbull, dont leggo at all at all.

    Would make a good ‘Chief Whip’, methinks the British call it.


  2. @ Crusoe
    Chief whip what..ac marbles flip…now she sleep running for the DLP like a crazy sheep dog….


  3. The fundy factor will take the Election down to January 2013, if we survive 2012. The fundy factor ensures that everything will be done at the very last possible date. Remember the nomination for the St John seat.

    No need for factoring in such things as a crop over factor or a rihanna factor. The fundy factor overrides all others. It is on the critical path.

    The january timing will ensure that FS would have brought up the expected date by 3 months, fulfilling his promise to bring it “sooner than you think”


  4. @ ac | July 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM |

    “. cause when you take a look at the BLP and language one got to hang dem head in shame with their use and abuse of the language..”

    Is Kenny Best on the BLP side?


  5. @ check -It
    Again like others you have fallen prey to political cynicism. This thread was meant to be scientific only. The Q factor though magnanimous is a bias that could not be encompassed for obvious reasons. Regardless, scientifically our model predicts true to form.
    The Q factor…has now because of the late hour , placed all predictions well within a rather small time frame,…. is suffice to make things most transparent and has given up the old element of surprise….. Is this now true old friend ?


  6. @miller
    don’t do ac so…cuddear.

    @check it out
    have to agree with you on the fundy factor. That overrides ALL statistical analysis. and there is a tacit predictability in it’s unpredictability.

    @onions
    you’ve analyzed and come up with the most desirable point. I’ll ask, can you tell me of a time/choice where Freundel took the most desirable option?? lol.


  7. Indeed, the Fundy factor ignores all sensible options, all feasible options, all desirable options, all historically tried and true options and zeroes in on the latest possible time that a decision can be made to make a decision.

    In that sense it is as Observing says, tacitly predictable.

    Indeed one aspect of the fundy factor is that it will ensure that the date chosen will be the most illogical, infeasible, undesirable and indefensible one. I suspect that the PERT analysis could come up with a date that incorporates those factors.

    Go for it Onions. Use the null factors.


  8. From…….Carson C. Cadogan | July 5, 2012 at 10:21 AM |

    The WHITE BAJANS are waiting on you BLP jokers.
    Not a red cent from them.
    Do you remember how the BLP lambast them in Parliament.
    Be very afraid Seethru…………………………..

    You DLP hacks are always spitting up the air and letting it fall right back in your faces.

    You Dems are forever telling people that the BLP is the party for the rich whites and that they dont care about the poor black man. Now all of a sudden, the DLP is the party for whites and the dead king said that the BLP was in bed with the white merchant class and that was why the cost of living was so high. The DLP has sold out the small man to a few whites, these few whites are getting all the big contracts. You DLP hacks should be ashamed.

    Remember that the dead king said that if the ink was not dried on the BS&T deal, he would cancel it. The deal was signed when he was in power and he did not a darn thing. Well, you Dems have really evolved to suit your partisan views.

    Freundel Stuart is a man known for his anti white views so I dont know that he has changed much, he is too staid in his attitudes to change much. You are right to a certain extent, you Dems have to depend on the white people now to get money for the campaign cause you sure is hell not going to get a cent out of Families First from Mona Lisa.


  9. Hey Check-it
    Whether Q or F or X Factor….on thing is sure …there is now NO element of surprise nor is there any maneuverability for a true General of political warfare to scope. We all can safely say if we don’t see Knights to C6 during Sept-Nov…look to Dec-Jan,withstanding,Jan or Feb…..A foiled plan of surprise if any. Problem is should more problems arise ..(as they have been now each and every month for the past 6)… the boost of the Rhianna concert et al is negated .Such causes the balance swings more to the left…..highlighting the folly of procrastination..but there again..that is the Q factor …


  10. @Check-it [July 7, 2012 at 1:27 PM |
    “the date chosen will be the most illogical, infeasible, undesirable and indefensible one.”
    **************************************
    Now that is OVER KILL…lol


  11. Using the Rhianna concert as the catalyst…August 11th…..look for further decreasing in petrol….. in early September. Waterman Commission wrapping up (heavens to merikktroid)….a dissolving of Parliament ….and an announcement of a date….we are speculating here of course…but with good reasoning….there again the Q factor..???


  12. Is Kenny Best on the BLP side?
    @ miller

    Is kenny Best the leader ? when comparing FS language style the leader of the BLPpales very far in comparison to FS no one needs a dictionary to figure out or interpret OSA colorful and derogatory language and to those who it was intended for . GET IT


    • The is NOT an issue about when the election date will be because it has to be soon anyway. The more important issue is the theme of the respective campaigns of both parties and which one will resonate and invigorate their bases.


    • The timing makes no difference because the BLP can kick into election mode from after Crop Over break for Christmas and go again.


  13. oni0n bags you are impotent you cannot decide an election date for Stuarty. Stuarty tell OSA to relax he gwine deal with him when the time is right. As you are OSA pimp and lackey you should do the the same thing. Drink a ESAF with your boy See Thru you yardfowl. See Thru and you could help the rum shops from closing down.


  14. BLP was in Orange election mode since June.We were on to the Q factor way beyond this thread…


    • It is obvious the DLP will use a strategy of going for the knockout punch because it cannot win the economy and leadership debate. We will have to wait to see what they come up with but it involves Arthur.


  15. It would be foolhardy for the DLP to extend the general elections beyond the time constitutionally due, that is Jan 2013. To evoke the extra three month extension allowed, will show a lack of confidence in the party. Immediately after crop-over, the BLP would launch its elections campaign and the DLP would have to play catch-up.


  16. Even if the DLP do utilise the extra three months period, all that will happen is the BLP would be able to dig deeper into the ills of the DLP, while any goodies the DLP comes with during that period, would more do more damage to them than good.


  17. I find it discomfiting that some folks in a country that boasts of 98% literacy should be critical of a PM who uses some unfamiliar words. Is that 98% literacy a mirage which has no basis in reality? Or does that 98% mean that we are au fait with monosyllabic words e.g. “BALL”; “BAT” or “CAT”.

    Stuart represents an endangered species i.e. an articulate speaker and people are often afraid or suspicious of those who possess that trait. Some political foes will try to bolster their appeal by denigrating Stuart’s verbal competency. Why should Stuart stick to the safety of trite time worn phrases and the multiple clichés that politicians trot out to the masses when they are begging for their support?

    Language matters for those who are willing to learn.


  18. @Sargeant

    Surely you recall the inclination of Don Blackman to be verbose yet he was not accused of not being able to communicate with the masses.


  19. @ Sarge
    should Stuart stick to the safety of trite time worn phrases and the multiple clichés that politicians trot out to the masses when they are begging for their support?
    *********************************
    Sarge…….tell me would you feel comfortable voting for a Chinese or Nipponese candidate who you don’t understand their language? Because some may feel at home with the lingo….I assure the majority don’t……ask George the two oar boat fisherman from the Bayland..Tell me will Professor BingleButton be casting the vote for Stuart or George?


  20. Old Onions

    Sarge…….tell me would you feel comfortable voting for a Chinese or Nipponese candidate who you don’t understand their language?
    **************
    When the “Chinese” or “Nipponese” run for office let me know, 98% literacy means we can read and write but we are unable to think.


  21. @ Sarge
    There will soon be a Trinidadian running for office …so you better believe it…Because we were unable to purchase majority share ownership in some of these companies the Trinidadians bought over, does this mean hard working and patriotic Bajans cannot think ?


  22. The DLP governmet knows or at least Stuart knows what time he plans to call a general elections. However, the BLP can start campaigning just after crop=over because this will not go pass the constituted date. Reason on hand, the subtle giveaways the DLP are promising, and they would deliver, but for how long? the drop in gas/diesel/LPG prices, now a lowering of the energy cost etc. Last year while oil prices were dropping on the world market, we were getting 5 cents off and 15 cent increase, now there is no increase but a 15 cents off and its going to change downwards again soon. Take advantage of any giveaways but “too little too late.


  23. Some approach me about a early December elections and of course I cautiously commend him….30th November …Independence Day….Dissolve Parliament before then..think not….GG wise..cutting to close to Jan


  24. Arthur and the BLP Group no doubt are in the race for power. They today vow to Bajans WE WILL FIX IT. They will fix the CLICO mess. They will fix it. They will fix the economy. They will fix the national debt, they will fix it. They will fix it. Interesting, Al Barrack originated during the days of Owen Arthur and the BLP. Arthur we know REFUSED fixing the Al Barrack problem. Thompson and the DLP in 2008 accepted the Al Barrack problem WITHOUT CHOICE because Arthur and the BLP REFUSED fixing it.
    Moody’s Investment Service (New York) in June of 2011 downgraded the Barbados domestic currency rating from Baa2 to Baa3 with a negative outlook. Afterwards, here comes Arthur. Someone has to be held accountable, Chris Sinckler, Minister of Finance and DeLisle Worrell, Central Bank Governor. Interesting the Barbados debt problem BEFORE the 2008 general election won by Thompson and the DLP was falling off the cliff. Barbados BEFORE the 2008 general election received several S&P dowgrades. Someone was responsible. Someone had to be accountable.
    The Mottley family linked to Mia Mottley brought the Arch Cot Scrub land that couldn’t be built and withinsix months got planning permission when the previous owner couldn’t because it was caved. The Codrington family totaling five ALL died at Arch Cot, Brittons Hill. Their home fell into a cave beneath it. Someone was responsible. Someone has to be accountable. Yes, of course, those BLP clowns. Those deaths could have been avoided. No building on that land should have been allowed. The VECO Corporation (Alaska) was awarded a government contract via Owen Arthur, Mia Mottley and Dale Marshall WITHOUT TENDER. The VECO Corporation built the prison at Dodds in St. Phillip. Surprise, VECO had no track record of building prisons. Owen Arthur, Mia Mottley and Dale Marshall associated themselves with a corrupt company to build the prison at Dodds and the Barbados oil terminal. Give those clowns a hand clap, Arthur, Mottley and Marshall. Owen Arthur in 2006 invested 2.4 million in a Nigerian water heater project. No water heaters were produced and the 2.4 million dollars was lost and or unaccounted for. Give that clown a hand clap, Owen Arthur.
    CLICO, yes, of course is a strong horse in the race as is the The Barbados Water Authority because of the 60% water rate, the Codrington family deaths at Arch Cot, Brittons Hill. Al Barrack also is a strong horse in the race, VECO and an older one, the 75,000 campaign cheque mess. The DLP is driver at fault concerning CLICO. The BLP is driver at fault for all others.
    According to the BLP “statement in writing” ,“it [BLP] has a proud and enviable record of keeping promises. Whatever happened in the past cannot be changed. . . . The DLP government is guilty of GREED and INCOMPETENCE”. The BLP clowns and their leader clown, Owen Arthur will fix things. Let’s see.


  25. With clowns like you feeding on the fatted calf, you think that your one track thinking can deter people from voting the DLP sorry arses out. You have proved to be the most incompetent government in the history of Barbados. You all have surpassed Sandi by lengths!


  26. the DLP will be rock to its core. Thompson set the bar with that $75000,00 cheque on display. i will say this now, when things are displayed for all to see, God help CCC, ac and others who believe the DLP owns the rights to talk about corruption in this country.

    the DLP has manage to do in 4 years what they say the BLP did in 14 years when it comes to corruption AND if what i saw and heard behind close doors is true persons will see the inside of Dodds.

    and that is going to be a good thing.


  27. Again last night in other circles the date of September was dallied about.
    There seems to be definitely merit in a scientific approach…even to the extent of a Q factor.


  28. Now we hearing….they putting out new that the DLP calling it in January..but we don’t believe it. Indicators show otherwise


  29. Where is the Rhianna show as projected around Crop Ova? How does this effect the predictability branch of an elections coming immediately affa elections? How come the change in date?Does this mean we really going to D baller affa all…LOL….


  30. It is about time we do like USA and set a time month for Elections….and stop all these suspense games a PM can play…..Time we are able to enforce the laws too as well for illegal acts.How could we point fingers at youthful wrong doers when what we saw going on lately deserves more than a hand slap?…..No we not a banana republic either….Oba recently win a Bronze….remember?


  31. Here is our rack, what we considered as most relevant :

    Crop Over
    Rihanna show
    End of most businesses financial year
    Month of October..deadest month of the year
    St. John’s polyclinic completion
    Independence celebrations
    Start of the 2013 tourist season
    Christmas season

    We consider these to be our red letter days as input to our models. These are times of worthy note and could play a crucial part in decision making.
    ************************

    Decision trees are useful predictive tools…..associating a probability and a merit Wgt to an event to a decision…lets not forget the Q Factor…lol


  32. Event………..Prob………….Wgt………….Month….RK

    Crop Ov………0.45…………0.70…………Aug…….31.5
    Rhanna………0.70…………0.90………….Sept……63.0
    Fin.Y…………..0.40…………0.60………….Oct……..24.0
    Indep…………0.65………….0.85………….Nov…….55.0


  33. We have moved on into ‘hyper space’…..Crop Over is over…Rather than a big shebang featuring Rhianna……it has been scaled down to Oprah Interview featuring the pop Queen….and whatever else there is to come…
    Already BU has swung into another gear….there is a definite feeling around..Yardie writing in soliloquy,others attacking anything that looks red (bull)..some with cleaning cloths and plasters for their fumbles…….yes my friends elections fever is in the air..Can you feel it?…


  34. …old bajan adage…..”when you ready, bring up ya railing too close to my palin…why is den ya tek wha ya get”…


  35. Anybody notice how regular GoCB on the air recently? Lottie used to say signs and wonders….I say signs of the TIME……


  36. September 17th already !

    WoW…one could hardly believe we on to the end of September already,
    October
    November
    December…….time really flying…why Christmas is only 14 weeks away


  37. Using an Almans almanac……Elections is set for February….dolphins and a new moon cohabitate….Ursa…”a mending of ways”…not my pick though…i foresee before then…..


  38. Elections Day November 22…….. New Govt in for Independence Day…starting a new leaf indeed…..How that sounds fellas?


  39. FELLAS ….I LIKE A PICK ANNUDA WINNER……DECISION TREES WORK…ALL HAIL UWI PROF. PUSHPANAWASDA…..ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD THIS YEAR…..according to the PM…..LOL


  40. old onion bags | July 5, 2012 at 4:22 PM |

    After Independence day celebrations… has great possibilities and as such a High Probability of occurrence Prob.(0.65) and also a High emotional response weighing of 85….out done only by Rhianna’s event positions well on the decision tree variable rack. Nov-Dec…very, very likely ..


  41. DLP holdin on til the last sinew….to the tether…..for what nah ?….. I call it
    Wed. 12th December……any takers ? taking bets here….( cannot bet money here but braggin rite …David do you ‘date page site’ nah…. like pinning D donkey tail )


  42. Elections Day will be either on the 21st or 28th of February (if we having one)……who would want to put elections on a 28th day of February. anyway???…

    Answer: a..Q Factor……lol


  43. At the risk of being chased off BU for again over analysing the matter of the choice of an election date. I just heard that it is set for 21st February.

    This means that there is now no need to have the Estimates passed prior to the General Elections since the new Government (whichever one) would have just enough time to mobilise and get the estimates done as the first order of business after taking over.
    It also means that Automatic dissolution was avoided but the taint of the Freundel Stuart’s Government going past that date for the actual elections still remains.
    It also means that there was never really a need to extend the date to 21st February since the Elections could have been called on Errol Barrow day or slightly earlier to ensure that it took place before the Automatic dissolution date of 12th February. This is so since little was carried out by Parliament on the days they met after Errol Barrow day and the Housing PR campaign does not need a sitting parliament to be carried out.
    It also means that there was no need for Hal Gollop to have been brought into the fray to fly the kite of an even later elections date.
    Could it mean the Hal Gollop honestly thought (and was probably directed to fly that kite) that the elections would be held much later in the 90 day regime when prior passing of the estimates before dissolution would have been necessary to ensure continuance of the financial affairs of Government?
    Could it mean that FS, the resolute one was persuaded that it wasn’t in his or the country’s best interest to draw out the date any longer?
    Could the inputs of some elder statesmen, even perhaps including the Excellent one (who is a great tactician and brain and DLP loyalist) overseeing the campaigning, might have been influential in these matters and might have wrestled the FS beast to the ground in this matter?
    Could it also mean that there might be a slight schism in the Party re. the politics of setting the election date?
    Looking forward to the revelations and gossip over the next few days.


  44. old onion bags | January 25, 2013 at 9:36 PM |

    Elections Day will be either on the 21st or 28th of February (if we having one)……who would want to put elections on a 28th day of February. anyway???…

    Answer: a..Q Factor……lol
    ***********************************

    They say self praise is no praise…nor do I seek any having been

    completely foiled by Stuart…..BUT at least Ole Gibberts is still entitled to a

    LAST laugh …Laughs BEST…..AS I STILL GOT HE…….bup bup bup!

    Ps. The best is yet to come…….(he he he)


  45. @ Fractured BLP

    Constitutionally that nominal day is set as five years from the date of the last elections date with a ninety day grace in the eventuality of an unforeseen emergency. Given this criteria, the latest this election date should be set is April 30th, 2013.

    old onion bags | January 25, 2013 at 9:36 PM |

    Elections Day will be either on the 21st or 28th of February (if we having one)……who would want to put elections on a 28th day of February. anyway?


    I had to go to the ARCHIVES to pull this one up and redeem myself from your jocose. Take that ! LOL

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