Arthur revealed that deposits by Barbadians in local banks which stood at $9.333 billion in 2008 had now shrunk to $8.222 billion in 2011.
Nation Newspaper (11.06.2012)
Leader of the Opposition Owen Arthur announced recently at a Christ Church constituency branch meeting that Barbadians have been forced to drawdown on their savings caused by a rising cost of living. Consequently the purpose of savings to provide for a ‘rainy day’ has been compromised. Arthur was Prime Minister and Finance Minister for 14 years and many – the traditional media with the exception of David Ellis – seem to cower when he (Arthur) quotes financial information for public consumption. Local media sadly seems driven by agenda and ignorance.
The information quoted by Arthur can be verified from the Central Bank of Barbados website. We welcome feedback on our conclusions when compared to the statistical gurus.
It is true that total deposits in 2008 stood at $9.333 billion. It is also true to state the deposit balance stood at $8.222 million in 2011. A more critical analysis shows that the $9.333 billion figure was at March 2008. The $8.222 billion was as at December 2011. Clearly Arthur did not factor seasonality in his politically provocative statement.
For example, in March 2008 the $9.333 billion (quoted by Arthur) when compared to March 2011 figure of $9.045 (Arthur makes the comparison to December 2011) – so that an apples to apples comparison between Mar 2008 and Mar 2011 shows a fall of $288 million.
The same analysis if done to compare the deposit balance of $8.222 in December 2011 to the balance of $8.934 in December 2008, it shows a drop of savings of $712 million.
Further analysis shows that the level of deposits held by Private Individuals between March 2008 and March 2011 increased by $130 million.
Statistics we know can be manipulated to present multiple views. It is therefore incumbent on a discerning media and citizenry to filter ALL information dumped in the public domain. Imagine BU’s surprise when in Clyde Mascoll’s column of June 14, 2012 his introduction was as follows:
“Last week, the absence of a minus sign did not convey the theme of my article that the net savings of Barbadians fell from $670 million in 2007 to -$404 million in 2011.“ Again to be noted is the ambiguity in the analysis. Surprisingly Mascoll did not offer any correlation analysis between behaviour in the deposit balances and investment in government securities. Perhaps Mascoll can be forgiven because we know he labours under a word limit imposed by the newspaper.
A lament by BU over the years has been the lack of financial analysis by local media. It must be said however that a people get what they deserve.
See Central Deposits Statistics
at a recent
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