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Governor Delisle Worrell’s First Quarter Performance Deemed Unprofessional

Submitted by BAJAN TRUTH

Governor of the Central Bank Dr. Delisle Worrell

I just want to record that I was very disturbed by the Central Bank Governor’s presentation on the economy last week, especially about the 30m dollar drain on foreign reserves etc.  He is supposed to be a neutral  professional with responsibility for sharing objectively on the economy. He stated there was a 2% drop in the economy for this quarter. A recession according to economic textbooks is if growth is less than 2% over a year.  We experienced negative growth a further 2%  after losing 10% last year. You cannot state truthfully that the economy is steady.  Who is he fooling?

I was very disturbed because as a businessman I cannot rely on these reports to guide decisions or anticipate outcomes.  I was concerned to hear him say that 30 million is a strain on the foreign reserves, that must mean our foreign reserves are in more  serious trouble than he has revealed if 30 million can place a strain on it, and we are really a long way away from the 2.5 billion we normally acquire yearly. They must have dropped considerably for 30million to be a strain.  What is the true state of our foreign reserves?

Factual  information  was lacking from his presentation on the real performance issues with the economy. As a professional he should have done better.

54 responses to “Governor Delisle Worrell’s First Quarter Performance Deemed Unprofessional”

  1. mash up & buy back Avatar
    mash up & buy back

    This sound like a puff piece straight out of the Leader of the opposition’s office.

    Dr Worrell was quite right in informing us of the state of play left to us by the last administration.

    Truly atrocious this level of wastage and corruption by the BLP.

    He is one govenor I have full confidence in.

  2. anthony Avatar
    anthony

    far as i know the reserves are somewhere about 1.5 billion see http://www.nationnews.com/-US1-billion-minimum-reserves-copy-for-web .
    liz also said import bill is down by about billion.
    http://www.nationnews.com/print/liz-delay-copy-for-web
    haven’t found where she quoting from.
    so it import had remain the same it would be right now @ 0.5 billion. which is truly dire straight but thankfully import drop considerably.

    I too found it lack any real merit. By the way the reserves where about 2.5billlion us abut 3 year ago with the loan payment being 15 million us . I am more worried about the 200 million us commercial bond they will be issuing to replace the 100 million one that will be due in June. What will happen when that bond is due will they be issue a new 300 or 400 millions us bond? that 200 million in just one month put a much harsher blow into foreign reserves than a 15 million us loan ever could. fact that represents over 13 payment of the 15 million loan that the governor was saying is stain on our foreign reserves.

  3. David Avatar
    David

    @Anthony

    liz also said import bill is down by about billion.
    http://www.nationnews.com/print/liz-delay-copy-for-web
    haven’t found where she quoting from.

    A look at p.5 of the Governor’s report shows that tax revenue was down directly linked to a drop in imports. It is good on the foreign exchange reserves but bad on government’s cash flow.

  4. ''''''FIRE'''''' Avatar
    ”””FIRE”””

    DLP
    et al

    THE WORSE GOVERNMENT EVER

    dont feel no way people. The worse dont necessarily
    mean that they are bad bad bad just that compared to the rest they are the worse
    so dont get twisted.

  5. anthony Avatar
    anthony

    I guess confidence can be restored in him if he does the same for all of current government projects and show the amortize prices. but really he suppose to be talking about economy and its outlook not about a single loan from the past administrator. just seems like he was told to make that his presentation. that is not what the governor suppose to be doing.

  6. Donald Duck, Esq Avatar
    Donald Duck, Esq

    He was way too political with his presentation. This upcoming budget is going to be dire. It will be the first delivered since he took over as governor. He has to do better or else he should be sent packing!!!

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Governor Worrell’s press conference was delivered using the style which he knows best. He is a micro-manager and therefore espousing granular positions is his style. Frankly his press conference was informative and he did not cloak his responses in the usual BS of former Governors. The only Governor to date who has showen a little spunk from time time was Sir Courtney, we all remember his tussles with Tom Adams over wage restraint. Don’t talk about Kurleigh ‘head in the sky transcendental’ King, Calvin ‘the mouse’ Springer or Marion ‘the autocrat’ Williams.

    Mia Mottley should be careful about bull-rushing the reputation of the Central Bank, be very careful indeed.

  8. Oh dear! Avatar
    Oh dear!

    Here’s a businessman worried about the foreign reserves. It’s your class that drains the foreign reserves on the backs of the people. If you idiots would stop buying from overseas and selling at a high profile and change your model of doing business and start to come up with an export model that would earn foreign reserves, there’d be no need to panic.
    You all make me sick.

  9. anthony Avatar
    anthony

    Earning foreign reserves meaning you either creating raw or finished products for sale. as we have very little raw products to sell they are not . let say we want to make beds as they do at workbench. we have to import the wood, the machinery to cut the wood. then glue or nail if not using all good carpenter joist. then export out to wherever that want them. let see we want to make rum as we currently do. most of the time they have to import molasses for their rum making process and all the machinery used to make the rum and we sell rum a high quality product and can do so because most of rum factories have been around far long than I am. the only market that Barbados could possibly get in on is luxury good. we don’t have cheap labour cost to go mass market. unfortunately most luxury goods go on reputation and reputation is what you have to build even if you have a decent product that different from the rest. so an export model isn’t easy to come with. as we have virtually zero natural resource we need to import everything. from the fuel that current running the generator at bl&p to the power the net and the computer your using. to the steel or wood used to construct the house your living in or the the computer part in the computer that your using to write that very message above. all need to be imported because we can’t make them here. if you where to follow your own advice really you wouldn’t even be online now would you ?

  10. Wishing In Vain Avatar
    Wishing In Vain

    As the Prime Minister was at pains to point out Mottley has set herself a timetable to be the leader of this island it orginally was supposed to be 16 th Jan 2008 but Owing put paid to her drive so now she stops at nothing to predict the worst for we Barbadians and our Barbados and todate all her erractic predictions have been so far off the mark you must remember her wish for us to record a 21 % unemployment figure but today it is 9.4 % and this annoys her and makes her very sad, she is a disgraceful thing.

  11. Avatar
    Anonymous

    WIV

    you know that the unemployment figure cannot be 9.4% but must be much higher!

    Your party campaigned vigorously on the claim that employment statistics were incorrectly determined (or even deliberately fudged) by the last administration. The DLP administration even announced that it was seeking IADB assistance in improving employment statistical measures. There has been no change in the methodology or personnel at the statistical department since 2007. I am thus led to conclude that either unemployment is much higher (in accordance with the DLP’s stated view that the statistical methods are deficient) or that the DLP is a cynical bunch of liars.

  12. Donald Duck, Esq Avatar
    Donald Duck, Esq

    I recently heard from a fairly reliable source there will shortly be a new tax on all goods manufactured in Barbados or grown here. This is not coming in the budget.

    I believe it was a DLP Finance minister who once introduced a tax on locally grown produce and as a result of the uproar he had to withdraw his proposals. Well the same party is about to do the same thing. lets see what reception there is?

  13. Wishing In Vain Avatar
    Wishing In Vain

    Donald Duck, Esq, there you go again Muttley, trying to spread fear and lies to people, lucky people are more sensible than you give them credit for being.

    To the other one the figures are from the same sources you and your clan quoted from.

  14. Avatar
    Anonymous

    My only problem with the budget is if consumption is down due to reduce spending in all sectors, how come VAT intake can increase by 5%?

  15. Tell me Why Avatar
    Tell me Why

    The above post is mine

  16. Oh dear! Avatar
    Oh dear!

    This is to the smart person who spoke about exports and raw materials. Have you heard about services as export? Have you heard about software? Have you heard about knowledge as export? Where are the raw materials and the imported materials for that? Now have you heard about value added goods? Have you heard about branding? Have you heard about making money on the brand? Barbados doesnt have to produce an ounce of rum to make millions from its brand name rums. If wunna would stop cursing the Guyanese, then wunna could produce the rum there, brand it under bajan brands and bring the foreign exchange to the island.
    It’s unfortunate our mindset is still stuck in a manufacturing mode of export orientation.
    What if Rihanna and a whole set of young international stars emerging out of Barbados decided to manage their wealth through our International Business Sector? Hmmmmm! What if they encouraged to do their friends to do likewise?
    Do you know where they manage their wealth, through Delaware, Montano, New York, Jersey Island and Caymans.
    Oops did I just say Caymans? Lots of raw materials and manufacturing going on there too I guess!

  17. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    Indeed, the recent review by the present Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, Dr. Delisle Worrell, of the 2010 first quarter performance of the Barbados economy was by far the worst we have so far observed delivered by any governor in the entire existence of the Central Bank of Barbados, qualitatively and quantitatively speaking.

    But, even though the Governor of the Bank and the Bank itself must be given credit for using an amount of on line media technologies to carry some of their messages to the wider Barbadian public and beyond ( beyond the traditional means), what makes this review still so worse and so irritating more than at times in the past when reviews were done without the aid of these modern communication technologies, has been that the Governor read – very stressfully very crumpled like frog like – from a PREPARED script for traditional and on line broadcasts – and which itself could only be said by us – the PDC – to have formed the basis of the so-called press release ( which appears now to mean video and data).

    But, notwithstanding the advantage of having read from a prepared script and of having substantial statistical data incorporated into the written portion of the Press Release; data, on say, the rate of growth of the so-called Barbados economy for the 2010 1st quarter – on some Balance of Payments indicators for the said quarter – and in regard of the size of the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP for the same quarter – it has been embarrassing to us, to say the least, and as well very unflattering to us in his lead role, to say the worst, when he did utter glibly in the press release (video/data) that Tourism “held its own” in the first quarter and that foreign reserves for the said quarter “held steady”, etc. What nuisance language for a so-called trained economist!! Could NOT the Governor have inserted better more specific language in the Press Release??

    Furthermore, he might never desire to see himself perform on the Central Bank’s on line video presentation of both events ( Press Release and media conference), esp. in regard of the latter, wherefore his many “aaammmss” would have been jarringly punctuating this particular question/answer segment, and wherefore his constant references to the relevant policy makers within government for further possible knowledge on particular issues in the said segment, were bordering on the unacceptable. Indeed, the goodly Doctor was far from being articulate and cogent.

    Of course, those glaring deficits in his use of the business and financial language and statistics to convey estimates imageries to the public of how the so-called economy had likely performed in the first quarter in certain regards, do make an entire mockery of that process of the reviewing of the first quarter performance of the so-called Barbados economy.

    So, what do the idioms used by the Governor really mean to the average person, tourism planners, so-called economists, etc? Firstly, we in the PDC do NOT know!!! But, did overall tourism output really grow in the period under review? If so, by what estimate? What “held its own” what?

    But, a journalist at the follow up low-keyed media conference probing the rate of change of tourism output for the 1 st quarter in relation to the corresponding quarter of 2009 was met with a reply by the Governor that tenored that he could NOT say it off the top of his head even though – as he said – the information was available. Too, what is the net international reserves position of the financial system of the country as at the end of the first quarter? What is it? How does this compare with the corresponding period of last year?

    The use of these idioms could never have given many people listening to aspects of the review a clear idea or better understanding of what has recently been happening in regard of the performance of these particular indicators.

    What also concerned us very much was that this so-called economist failed in his review to outline – as Governor Williams used to do ever so often in her quarterly reviews – what the projections were for the performance of the so-called Barbados economy for the second quarter and for the rest of the year. What a farce!!!

    To top it all off the Governor also made some remarkably astounding errors in the said follow up media conference, when later in responding to a question posed by a female journalist on the adequacy or not of the current foreign reserves – he stated words to the effect “that here is it that poor Barbados – in struggling to confirm its status as a first world economy – is seen to be lending back foreign reserves mostly to the richest country the USA.” As far as we are aware Barbados is NOT or is NOT even on the path to becoming a first world economy – what ever that is – Dr. Worrell!!! – as so erroneously put across by him.

    The Governor also claimed that 10 years ago the Bank ( presumably) did not have internet, so therefore the Bank could not have added in as part of the total value of services rendered the value of the provision of certain services via the internet. The first part is far from the truth since the Central Bank has long had internet access. But, yes, it has not been fully utilizing many internet services as it ought to.

    So, in concluding this bit of information, we must say that late last year when Dr. Worrell was about to be appointed Governor of the Central Bank, he had asked that individuals focus NOT on the Governor but on the quality of the work and advice produced by the bank. But, having heard the Governor in his first quarter review we are left with no alternative but to focus more, and clinically so too, from here onwards on the Governor and what he says or not says and does and not does thoroughout his stint, and NOT SO much on the bank, since fundamentally the truth is that the Governor makes such a really bigger impact on the bank’s public image more than the bank makes on his public standing.

    Too, it is very unfortunate that so early into this Governor’s term we in the PDC are being forced to ask ourselves if Dr. Worrell could really fit into the shoes of even the last Governor when it comes to the overall clarity and preciseness and soundness of delivery of comments and knowledge and grasp of the financial and economic information at hand to be presented to the general public.

    We certainly give Dr. Worrell a failing grade (D) for his unnatural but unpenetrative style of delivery of the review, and for his lack of academic command of the media conference.

    PDC

  18. Oh dear! Avatar
    Oh dear!

    Lord Jesus PDC!

  19. J Avatar
    J

    David wrote “He is a micro-manager and therefore espousing granular positions is his style”

    What do these words mean in plain English?

  20. Donald Duck, Esq Avatar
    Donald Duck, Esq

    WIV

    Have a look at your order paper of bills to be discussed in parliament tomorrow and after you have read the environmental levy bill let me know if I am spreading lies. It confirms what I have always thought that you don’t read the order paper.

  21. ReadyDone Avatar
    ReadyDone

    The above mentioned presentation being on TV is a good thing for the public, i don’t own a tv so if it was the first televised report congrats to the central bank a major step in the right direction.

    I think the governor could have sit up more and use his voice more effectively to get his points across, I do like the fact that the language used was easily understandable, but to me he does not command as much respect as his predecessor.

    They could have use more technology in the form of charts and graphs that kind of stuff, visual aid can say a lot more than just the spoken word and shows that the central bank is on top of its game. I mean even the weather man uses technology. I want to feel like the governor of the central bank and the central bank in general is ‘advance’.

  22. littleboy Avatar
    littleboy

    How sad ! Some of us are still behaving as though Barbados is not a part of the worldwide recession.The Central Bank Governor has shown real balls in delivering a report that the ordinary man can understand, and has tackled a political hot potato (the Dodds scenario).

    The truth must be told, and Mr Worrell is telling it. He is also providing straightforward advice to the present Government without the verbiage and esoteric language.

    Praise the man for his truthfulness…something that has been lacking in public life.

    He is no Frank Gill, who only speaks now that he is retired and his pension secured!

  23. mash up & buy back Avatar
    mash up & buy back

    Littleboy

    What a shame.

    Frank gill now has the temerity to speak out now that he is earning his pension.

    Isn’t he a member of the BLP?

  24. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    Too much simpletons.

  25. David Avatar
    David

    @mash up

    Why are you framing the Frank Gill syndrome in B or D terms? This syndrome is alive and well under both parties within the civil service.

    BTW former PM Arthur has come out against the Governor’s review of the economy.

  26. Avatar
    Anonymous

    The difference between the Prison contract and the contract to build new acommodations for government workers is that the prison was built by a company with a dubious track record one who has been proven to have paid bribes to govenment officials including an Alaskan Senator, the office building arte being built by Barbadians for Barbadians at a fraction of the cost of the prison in Barbados dollars and not in an uncertain currency as was the prison.

  27. peltdownman Avatar
    peltdownman

    @Donald Duck Esq

    The government has been forced to apply the environmental levy to locally-produced goods by the OECD and the WTO, as the levy is currently inposed on imports and they want the playing field levelled. Quite how a national government can be forced to act against its own national interest is somewhat of a mystery. Anyhow, whilst it is pretty straightforward to impose a levy on imports, it is much more difficult to impose on locally-produced goods. The key will certainly be in the implementation and the reporting. What will happen, for example, when a local manufacturer purchases inputs from another local manufacturer? Will the levy have to be grossed-up? That would put locally-produced goods at a severe disadvantage. This is what happens when a tax is introduced without proper forethought. My fear is that it will be used like the old Consumption Tax, to raise revenue when all other avenues are closed. The Consumption Tax started at about 3% and ended up at 21% before it was replaced, among other taxes and levies, by the VAT.

  28. Trained Economist Avatar
    Trained Economist

    The governor is clearly perplexed as to how you could acquire a prison under terms that would result in a payment of Us$15ml per year for 25 years. If he had not raised the issue would we really have known the true cost of dodds?

  29. mash up & buy back Avatar
    mash up & buy back

    David

    The only reason I mentioned Blp with regards to frank gill,and this is because he was there during the 14 years of plenty under Owen when he could have whispered concerns about the stadium to owen if he did not want to make it public and we might have had matters solved.

    Now that he has his pension and the Dees are in he is ready to publicly complain.

  30. Trained Economist Avatar
    Trained Economist

    Mia’ arguments in the papers, and the BLP’s postions on the prison are quite strange.

    They seem to be suggesting that if there are no cost over-runs then there are no financial problems with the project. the governor seems to be asking, how the hell could you agree to a deal that would result in your paying 700+ million for a prison.

    The relevant issues seem to be:

    is the priosn way too elaborate? could we have gotten a decent functional facility for rather less? That seems to me to be the governor’s underlying point.

    if we had borrowed the money from say the IADB or some other source and built a decent functional prison what would the cost have been.

    My view is that the bolt was an expensive financial arrangement but it fit the arthur strategy of hiding the true level of government spending and debt but keeping things off budget.

    The prison project is one of the best examples of the problem with owen and mia, and now hilary beckles as well. Everything has to be world class, no expense spared. its all about flash and panache. Absent from these folk is the old bajan value of a functional facility that you can well afford

    With leaders those those you are bound to end up with expensive white elephants and high and unsustainable levels of debt.

  31. Donald Duck, Esq Avatar
    Donald Duck, Esq

    peltdownman

    So you agree that the levy will be on locally grown food. Don’t you think the government could have come up with an alternative tax where they could avoid taxing locally grown stuff.

    I wonder why WIV can’t take off his blinkers when it comes to these issues. He gets the same order paper that I get.

  32. peltdownman Avatar
    peltdownman

    @ Donald Duck, Esq

    Yes, it will also be on locally-grown food. IMHO I believe that this tax will be so expensive to police and recover, that it would be better to eliminate it on imports and then we could forget it altogether. However, it could be that government at this time feels that it is fortuitous that they are forced to raise more revenue in this manner.

  33. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    @ Trained Economist

    I only noticed CONSTRUCTION COSTS being mentioned regarding these offices. What are the “TRUE COSTS”?

    New Warrens buildings to be delivered next year

    1/13/2010

    By Nicholas Cox

    Two high-rise office buildings in the Warrens area totalling over 200 000 square feet are expected to be completed March and August of next year.

    The two projects, Warrens Towers Two and Baobab Towers, are being undertaken by the National Insurance Department (NID) as part of Government’s economic stabilisation programme and are currently employing approximately 450 people. Director of the National Insurance Department, Ian Carrington, speaking during a tour of the two sites – one adjacent to KFC in Warrens St. Michael, and the other adjacent to the First Caribbean head office in the same area – said they would house about 20 different Government departments.

    The eleven-storey, almost 90 000 square foot, Warrens Towers Two building is being constructed by JADA Construction; the two-year project is now expected to be completed on time and on budget in August 2011 at a cost of $56.1 million. Meanwhile, Baobab Towers will feature a ten-storey, 120 000 square foot office building and a five-storey parking deck, and is being constructed at a cost of $55.1 million by Rotherley Construction. Work began in April last year and is expected to be completed by March 2011.

    Carrington said the projects were part of Government’s stabilisation programme to combat the recession, and saw the NID taking over the two shovel-ready projects that were in danger of being halted because of the downturn. He said, “The National Insurance Board over many years would have gotten in to the area of construction, but only at strategic times”.

    He recalled that this also occurred after the downturn following the 9/11 attacks.
    “And we get into these projects at these times because for us the area where there is [the] greatest level of unemployment is usually in construction and tourism. So, getting into a project such as this at this time allows us to continue to pay an individual a wage as opposed to paying them an unemployment benefit.” He noted that the buildings were long-term investments, from which the department expected to generate a good rate of return.

    The Director further noted that the tenant would be the Ministry of Housing under a 25-year renewable lease, and said that a committee had been established during 2009 and had begun to examine the space needs of the particular ministries and departments to determine where they would be placed. Carrington also revealed said the department would also be undertaking the construction of a new headquarters for the Caribbean Examinations Council in the Pine, St. Michael. This four-storey 120,000 square foot building was estimated to cost some $36 million, and construction is expected to begin by the middle of 2010.

  34. Donald Duck, Esq Avatar
    Donald Duck, Esq

    Should the governor of the central bank not comment on the lease payments which the government will have to pay for these buildings. Perhaps he should get the NIS to pay off Correction corp for the prison.

  35. Avatar
    Anonymous

    Off topic. Anyone know where Johan Bjerkman is? Or is not?

    This country too sweet!

  36. ''''''FIRE'''''' Avatar
    ”””FIRE”””

    Brilliant response from PDC
    THOUGHT PROVOKING and really laying into the Governor-(who is my friend by the way)

    PDC tells it like it is
    in a way that you apologists for the GOVERNMENT could never dream of doing.

    Respect @ PDC—-KEEP IT UP

  37. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    Having seen and read in the Press Release (video/data) on the first quarter performance of the so-called Barbados economy, that the current gross government debt to GDP ratio (93.6 %) has been reduced in between the time of the release of the report of the performance of this economy in 2009, in January 2010, when it was said in this particular report that the gross government debt to GDP ratio rose from 90.8 % in 2008 to 110.2 % at the end of the year in 2009, and now – at this time of the publication of this said Press Release, where it is said that this particular ratio is now 93.6 %, as at the end of March 2010, the question that we in the PDC would have been having to ask ourselves ( until we obviously discovered why) is: how would this ratio have DECLINED SO DRAMATICALLY WITHOUT ANY REFERENCE BEING MADE WHATSOEVER in the first quarter 2010 Press Release ( video and data ) to ANY HUGE DEBT REPAYMENTS worth about BDS $ 1.3 Billion dollars ( based on our estimates of GDP ) that were made ( consistent with the reduction in the gross government debt to GDP ratio ) by the government in the course of this 3 month period?

    Yet, in relationship to this question the most that we saw – until we discovered why again – as still insufficient evidence of this supposed decline in the gross government debt to GDP ratio was by way of an attribution by Dr. Worrell – in the Press Release – to a BDS $ 30 million sum in repayment on the Dodds investment? So, the question would have remained as to why was there such a massive decline in the gross government to GDP ratio still??

    Anyhow, having remembered last Sunday that the first quarter performance of the so-called Barbados economy in 2009 saw a steep drop in the region of 4 % over the corresponding one in 2008 – and thereby our having been forced on the Monday to consult the Central Bank’s own infomation for the first quarter performance of last year – to be certain about the magnitude of the drop, then to realize it was in the order of 4.8 %, and then, too, already recalling that the on line newspaper, Barbados Today, in its 14 April 2010 edition had told readers that the so-called Barbados economy had contracted by less than one per cent in the first quarter economy , and which was subsequently confirmed by our viewing of the Press Release on Sunday last, the question that really would have stood out in our minds (PDC’s) would have had to be and was: how could there have been such A DRAMATIC TURN AROUND in the first quarter performance in 2010 over the corresponding one in 2010, and yet there was NO REFERENCE MADE WHATSOEVER by the Governor of the Central Bank to any thing, any variable any where within the economy that remotely suggested that – in the said first quarter 2010 – Barbados was able to so spectacularly overcome such a massive decline by producing and distributing in the order of perhaps BDS $ 360 to 400 million worth of growth ( value added ) in the course of the period starting 1 January 2010 and ending 31st March 2010? How? Huh??

    Yet, in pondering on this question, we recognized that Tourism, the major economic growth sector in Barbados, was said by the Governor to have experienced lower average vistor expenditure (estimated); that the British market – Barbados’ major tourist market – was said to be “down”, whilst at the same time realizing in the accompanying statistical data in the Press Release that the contribution of tourism to GDP marginally increased by 0.7 % – which would amount to a BDS $ 56 million increase over the first quarter in 2009, based on our own estimates of GDP – and that electricity, water and gas, transport and communications combined to produce an 1.1% increase in their first quarter 2010 GDP contribution over last year’s – which translates into a BDS $ 88 milion increase in the size of their contribution to first quarter ( based on our own GDP estimates).

    But, the question would still have remained: where in spite of such anaemic growth in these sectors and with declines in the contributions to GDP of some other major sectors like Construction, was there such a decline overcome by such a substantial drastic level of growth in the so-called economy – according to the rate of growth presented by the Central Bank for the first quarter 2010? Where did it really take place in the economy, esp when it was the case that we in the PDC and so many other Barbadians would have witnessed that so many aspects of real business and production and distribution were in serious decline in the said first quarter in this country? Where like hell?

    Having realized that some thing was terribly amiss, it came back to us yesterday that Dr. Worrell – in the question/answer segment of the recorded video clip – had said – in response to a very pertinent question put forward by Mr. Patrick Hoyos about Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) suggestion that the GDP of Barbados has been under measured by about 15% – that the Bank had made such an adjustment and that the figures that were actually contained in this first quarter 2010 Press Release reflect the adjustment and that the higher ratios of the gross government debt to GDP ratio that were produced before were unrealistic because of the undermestimation and that the real ratios would be lower now because of the more realistic picture of what the size of the GDP would be – thus as a consequence of such, the real ratios would now be seen as actually lower.

    So, THERE THEY WERE – THE EXPLANATIONS OF WHAT WAS AMISS. The Central Bank Governor has admitted to properly manipulating NOT ONLY the gross government debt to GDP ratios BUT ALSO the GDP growth rate figures for this year so far to reflect the so-called real size of the GDP.

    Well, these are the real reasons why it appears that the gross government debt to GDP ratios have dropped so suddenly so remarkably, without government ACTUALLY paying any substantial amounts on the total government debt to whomsoever, and why the the rate of decline in the performance of the GDP has appeared to slow so tremendously so massively , without there being significant improvements in the foreign exhange earning foreign exchange using productive sectors of the economy.

    Yet, to have done the Press Release without setting out any where in it that this was done, the particular CARTAC recommendations that were accepted, the methodological basis upon which it was done, that the base year GDP calculations might have changed, etc. was truly reprehensible, gross and unprofessional on the part of the Governor and by extension the Central Bank of Barbados.

    Such borders on unrational unworthy conduct both by the Governor and the Central Bank of Barbados

    We can safely argue that had not for the perspecacity and sagacity of Mr. Patrick Hoyos at the Media conference the general public would never have known at this time that the Central Bank had acceded to and had actually gone about remeasuring the GDP of this country to take into consideration what is supposed to be the real size of the GDP of this country, and therefore once such had been done, had actually gone and included these changes in the substance of the first quarter 2010 Press Release figures.

    Furthermore, while it is good to have an accurate as possible a measure of the size of the GDP of this country, we venture to argue that the recent remeasurement of the GDP and the subsequent adjustments that were done, say, to the size of the GDP, the GDP ratios, etc. were caried out at this time for stark political reasons esp. to hide up the fact that this economy over which this DLP Government presides continues to perform as poor as piss, and to somewhat shield this said wayward wretched DLP Government from any further political fall out surrounding its continued gross and reckless mismanagement of many of the affairs of this country.

    But, thankfully, many adult Barbadians are capable of distinguishing the real productive economy from that of the nominal money economy – with the latter having to eventually reflect what is really happening at the level of the real economy no matter what.

    Hence, we are certain in our minds that this is what what they know based on their real commercial material and financial experiences and practices, and that no amount of Central Bank hiding and shoving in information to manipulate their own statistical outcomes will be enough to quell or solve their distress, misery and penury at this time of political economic depresssion in Barbados.

    So, finally, there you have it on another dismal performance aspect of the current governor of the Central Bank!!

    Down with the Damned DLP and the Blasted BLP!!

    Again, thanks to you,

    “”””””””‘FIRE”””””

    PDC

  38. Albert Avatar
    Albert

    True costs? Let us look first at the foreign exchange cost. That is what the Governor is doing. Mia says there were no cost overruns, Owen said we had to build it! Are those people crazy?

    That is why we must have an inquiry into the prison!

    As to the intellectual content of the Press Conference: None of them are fit to latch or unlatch Dr. Delisle Worrell’s shoes!

  39. Ready Done Avatar
    Ready Done

    Questions about the prison.

    I saw a picture of what i believe was the prison, it look like Louis Lynch School only bigger, i hope all of that money ent spent pun some shaky, hurry down building. Does any one actually know what the inside of the prison is like? is it even worth half the money we spend on it? How can i go about seeing how “hi-teck” it really is, besides getting locked up of course.

    Was it built in a way to minimize the long term operating cost? Is it really a prison or just a “big, free hotel” Does it actually correct the residence?

    How long would this building be relevant?

    Can we get an independent architect or prison builder to come in and verify its worth?

  40. anthony Avatar
    anthony

    ok let really get to heart of the issue page 804 of this year estimates we have the most talked about project showing the loan at 288,602,650 and current outstanding at 282,803,020 with see note 17. note 17 states “17 US 144301325. Amortised in 2008-01-15 to 2032-01-15. 25 Annual payments”. therefore they paid the loan with no issue last year. so why is it an issue this year. if they wished to complain last year would been the correct time . so as we can all see diversionary tactics indeed. going to page 230-231 in estimates we see no huge increase in Subprogram 0126 Foreign Debentures Subprogram or 0127 Other Foreign Commercial Loans for the 2008-2009 actual to 2009-2010 revised estimates only

  41. Ready Done Avatar
    Ready Done

    What does the prison officers have to say about there new job site?

    Do the offenders like the place? and want to come back? or do they run like hell afraid and never wanting to return once them get release?

    All i ever hear convicts talk about is how bad the food is in the new prison.

  42. ''''''FIRE'''''' Avatar
    ”””FIRE”””

    Thanks to you PDC for another brilliant piece

    I do hope that you run some candidates in the next election AND WIN SOME SEATS. Get some people in the House. I believe that PDC can make a difference and I am genuine about that. You have my vote any time an election is called and a candidate runs in my area —

    My perspective is that people matter; it is people who make change happen. The present crop of parliamentarians is no more qualified gifted or talented than members of PDC and I know from observation of some of the members who ran in the last election and from the writings on this Blog that PDC has talent. The status quo in Barbados would not want to hear that, the members of some fraternal gatherings might not want to believe that but PDC must press on

  43. WAYNE BLENMAN Avatar
    WAYNE BLENMAN

    Interesting contributions.

    Did you check Dr. Worrell today in the Advocate? He is approaching the rating agencies to explain that the Barbadian debt, is not really a problem, because it is local debt. So the true debt to GDP ratio is under 50%. This could ony mean that debt was never really a problem for the Barbadian economy, even during the Arthur years, as was drummed into my ears by our present gov’t to explain every difficulty or misstep they experienced. It can also mean that Barbados was in a better position than most C’bbean territorities to deal with this crisis. The governor or the Minister of Finance needs to state definitively, was it a problem or was it not?

    What riles me, is that the people we need to trust as Barbadians mislead us, especially in a time of crisis, instead of managing the economy. Or perhaps it was just political expediency or to hide their ineptness with coming up with a timely strategy for managing the difficut crisis. When did Dr. Worrell discover that the debt was not unacceptably high and when did he advise our Prime Minister? Did he only discover it this week? Did he make his recommendations about how to deal with the crisis against a background that the debt was unsustainable or sustainable? Do you realise that all the talk to explain the dificulties of the Barbadian economy by David Thompson, David Estwick, the DLP team, as caused by ‘high debt’, now needs to be looked at in a new light. This erroneous position has influenced the media, and spread across Barbados in the call-in programmes by certain moderators, playing them for fools. Experienced journalists should not have been caught by this if they had paid attention to Frank Alleyne, do some research with other economists, follow the ratings of the agencies and ask questions then of the finance minister. We the public would have been better informed, and not become the dupes of the media. The media has this duty.

    If Mr. Worrell had followed over the years he would have realised that with the ‘high debt’ as previously calculated with NIS debt, that the rating agencies still gave Barbados good grades. The former Prime Minister had indicated the viability of the economy and that the debt was manageable. This would explain why he and Ms. Mottley said, revalue the economy and restate your debt minus the NIS debt and give yourself room to stabilise the economy and then stimulate the economy. At the time not being aware of this, not trained as economists, and not drinking political Koolaid we could have dismissed this, as I did, as political posturing. But I reversed my opinion when I heard Frank Alleyne, a noted and respected economist, a supporter of the DLP answering a question by David Ellis. He stated categorically for our benefit as Barbadians, that the debt was not a problem, that the structure of the debt was manageable, and its external component low, and it poses no problem to the Barbadian economy. Someone inform me, because I want the truth did Mr. Worrell also join this chorus that the debt was a problem, affects our ability to borrow and limits our options to deal with this external crisis? Or was he silent on the matter as governor and as a member of economic team advising government on the strategy to handle the crisis. I would want to commend Frank Alleyne’s professional stance as a model for others to copy. We need more like Frank Alleyne, especially in places of trust that call for professionalism and integrity. Barbadians need people like you, Mr. Alleyne and I would want to recommend you to our Prime Minister.

    Bajantruth

  44. Mongoose Avatar
    Mongoose

    Next they (one above) will lend hundreds of millions from NIS to build the hospital. You so easy to SEE.

    Bajans to don’t lend dem “local” money for the offshore account- won’t pay back.

    Why should anyone pay NIS contributions? Is it a tax for government spending, corruption, kickbacks and expenditure?

    Or is it a welfare levy held for benefit of the people?

    Why pay any tax whatsoever? ‘Free’ cash for an MP near you.

  45. notesfromthemargin Avatar
    notesfromthemargin

    The issue of debt has to be looked at in non political terms. Debt has it’s place in the world.

    There are comments about NIS getting involved in government debt, the truth of the matter is that the NIS is an entity with a large amount of cash that it has to manage. Buying government paper (or Treasury Bills) is one of the best low risk investments available. There is nothing shady about NIS being involved in the building of the two office towers in Warrens. They have a tenant (Government) for both buildings and they will generate a return for the fund. For the NIS this is a better use of money than leaving it in the bank at 2% interest.

    The Central Bank Governor’s trip to the rating agencies to explain Barbados’ debt profile is also nothing new. This happened under the BLP and will most likely (if they know what they are doing) continue to happen under the DLP. The issue with Barbados’ debt has more to do with the structure of it that the quantum, and the issue has always been that although the absolute number is high, the majority of that debt is held in local currency and hence is not dependent on Barbados’ reserves of foreign exchange and hence poses no risk for the currency peg.

    Yet it is good politics to attack the size of the debt, the average Bajan making $2,000.00 a month goggles at the size of the numbers involved. It is an emotional reaction exploited by politicians on either side of the party divide.

    What is concerning is the use of the Central Bank Governor’s review to “put the best face on things” He has not lied, but the statement is selective in what it chooses to highlight and how it is highlighted. A decline in GDP does mean the economy is still in recession. While the Foreign reserves registered a slight decline, our overall cover is adequate but no where is there mention of any concern given that the first quarter (Tourist season) is when our reserves should be growing! What are the implications for the rest of the year and what plans should be put in place? (To be fair, the plans and policies are the ambit of the minister of finance but the lack of highlighting it is concerning).

    The “spinning” of the economic report by itself might be dismissed as an aberration, but it follows on the flip flopping of the government on the unemployment statistics. No where during the election was the validity of unemployment statistics mentioned, when it started to inch up last year, all of a sudden the statistical department was being rubbished, now they are holding steady, they are being held up as evidence of Government’s management of the economy. THIS IS NOT HEALTHY, to have economic confidence the private sector, commercial lenders (foreign and local) and rating agencies must have confidence in the statistics produced by the Government. To have them become a part of the political PR machine, endangers us all in the long run.

    Marginal

  46. ''''''FIRE'''''' Avatar
    ”””FIRE”””

    Thank You WAYNE BLENMAN

    I have been saying the same thing and I have called BLP this and BLP that but I am about TRUTH and Thompson and DLP are notorious liars.

    I have constanly informed this blog that too many lies were going on. I informed this blog that THOMPSON had lied and lied before and after the election and fooled the people especially WOMEN because women usually carry the sway and influence over society because they control men -I was referred to as weak minded and a BLP this and that.

    I am no BLP this or that , IT IS JUST THAT i CAN SMELL A LIES FROM AFAR and I am an excellent judge of character——-I can spot dishonesty a mile off.——my spider senses usually tingle !

    I HAVE CONSISTENTLY SAY THAT THOMPSON WAS TELLING LIES. I CHALLENGE ANY OF THOSE WHO OPPOSED WHAT I SAID TO DENY THAT .

    GO AHEAD !

  47. ''''''FIRE'''''' Avatar
    ”””FIRE”””

    I have been saying the same thing and I have–BEEN– called BLP this and BLP that but

  48. anthony Avatar
    anthony

    After reading Dr. Worrell today in the Advocate. We will come to one of two conclusion. either the rating agency will realise that the way the dept is quite good and increase the credit rating in which part The whole dlp should apologise for the continued bashing it gave the last government for an excellent job or Dr. Worrell will find out that is what his predecessors did and the rating will stay the same. On the article he say the the out ability to service our foreign debt via out good and services is very good and how much revenue we have to devote to service the debt is very low compare to international standards. so what is it? is the dodds repayment putting a strain on foreign reserves or our ability to service foreign debt very good. can’t be yes to both. it either no to the first and yes to second. or yes to the first and no to the second. if no to both it just mean we have way in excess foreign reserves but as we saw that down to about 1.5 billion now. still more than required but we would like it going back up instead of down.

  49. Yambelly Avatar
    Yambelly

    Fact – Most of our debt is to domestic entities
    Fact – Our ability to borrow has narrowed because we borrowed substantial amounts under the pervious administration.
    Fact- Rollover of the domestic component is not a problem.
    Fact- The use of off balance sheet financing by the pervious administration was substantial-Dodds, Supreme Court, Coast Guard, Highway, Kensington Oval. When these are added to the debt at the point at which they were incurred they do reflect significantly on the increase in debt. Furthermore many of these “loans” were expensive in my view ( 10%+ on Dodds is very expensive ).
    Fact-The current administration continues to borrow. Note, outside the project loans much of the borrowing is due to a collapse in revenues (VAT down 18% etc).
    Fact- we are still in a recession but the rate of decline has slowed. That does not say we could not continue to contract if tourism does not come back. But do you expect the Governor to emphasize this?
    Fact- Nobody knows what the unemployment numbers are- no survey was done by stats – hence the vagueness of the presentation. The analysis was obviously based on informal surveys with business. Stats is currently busy with the census. We always have gaps in the unemployment survey around census time.
    Fact- Government has provided incentives for businesses not to fire people; unions have been trading wage increases for job security. This likely supported a situation of no further job losses. Can this continue if the economy does not grow? Not likely.
    Fact- There is a lack of transparency in loans we undertake.
    Fact- The CARTAC rebasing means that the denominator of the debt/GDP ratio is much bigger. Hence the below 100% debt to GDP ratio versus the previously published debt/GDP ratio which were greater than 100% of GDP.
    Fact- Dr. Worrell is a widely published, highly trained and experienced economist. I would suggest you check his record and don’t base your analysis on his “simple words”
    Fact- All Governors try to be positive in addressing the public. Why? If the current governor had said ” we still in recession ; no light at the end of the tunnel”; do you think businesses/consumers would go out and spend? If a Governor ever says anything like that you should go jump off a cliff because all hope really is lost.

    Opinion- There is no grand conspiracy here. DLP likely to run into the same situation if they don’t get the transparency issues straight. Hopefully they will not encourage/allow non transparent borrowing in an attempt to massage the debt numbers which I think is the central problem of the last administration.

    The current administration has a lot of off-balance sheet debt to deal with and clearly wants the political price to be paid by those who incurred it. My own thinking is that the Central Bank should have revealed them at the time they were incurred. Was this possible/were they allowed to under the pervious administration?

    Also, stats people are civil servants and don’t really give a fig who is in government. Oppositions ALWAYS criticize the Stats department- especially the unemployment survey- but never can come up with any improvements in power. The survey methodology has not changed. That should tell you something.

  50. Brutus Avatar
    Brutus

    Well said Yambelly.

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