USA Presidential Elections Not Over Yet

Submitted by C. Evelyn
Gallup.com

Source: Gallup.com

Over the last few weeks we have witnessed a meteoric rise by the Obama/Biden ticket in the upcoming US election. With less than a week to go before Election Day, many pundits in the media and elsewhere have counted out any possibility of a McCain/Palin presidency. Some polls have shown Obama leading by up to 8 points in certain battleground states and presently CNN is predicting Obama has 286 Electoral College votes, well over the required 270 needed to clinch the presidency. At the risk of sounding like a pessimist, I warn the many die hard Obama supports that its not over by a long shot. There are a number of factors that if combined could quite easily lead to us waking up on November 5th to McCain as the president elect and de facto leader of the world.

In the primaries, quite to the surprise of many pundits, Obama a first term senator and virtual unknown was able to defeat former first lady Hillary Clinton. One of the factors that allowed Obama to defeat the more seasoned Clinton was the impact of the youth vote. In the primaries, youth turned out in unprecedented numbers to support their candidate of choice. Inspired by his youthful image and his talk of change, young voters played an instrumental role selecting a new face in an era when for twenty years, the presidency has been controlled by two families. As we look forward to next week Tuesday, there is a distinct possibility that the youth may not turn out in their numbers. Already from the statistics we have from early voting, it appears that youth have not taken advantage of the opportunity to vote in as large a proportion as they did in the primaries. History also presents the precedent of past elections (Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004) where youth seemed energized behind a candidate but on Election Day did not translate that energy into voting. If youth do not come out in great numbers on Election Day, Barack could lose one of his major constituencies.In many of the polls in key battle ground states Obama leads McCain by up to 10 points. This morning, yahoo’s poll average gave Obama 51% to McCain’s 43% (unsure 6%). While this seems like a comfortable lead, I posit that this race is much closer than many polls suggest. Need I remind you of the New Hampshire primary where Obama 24hrs before the primary, was leading Clinton by a significant 11% yet still lost the primary. In this case, what happened in New Hampshire and in many of the later primaries, was that those voters who were unsure broke towards Clinton when it mattered most in the voting booth. Should this happen on November 4th the race becomes a lot tighter Obama 51%, McCain 49%. Now if we keep in mind that most polls have a +/- 3% margin or error, it is feasible to imagine McCain winning a state where Obama commanded an 8 point lead. If this happens on a national scale McCain can still win. (In this equation, the current economic crisis which favors Obama is not considered.) One sub factor which I do not wish to dwell extensively on is the issue of race or the so called “Bradley effect” which could possibly favor McCain. In this scenario, many white voters may tell pollsters that they support Obama for fear of seeming racist or may support Obama but fail to pull the trigger in the voting booth.

As paradoxical as this may seem, Obama’s present commanding lead in the polls benefits McCain. A lead like this in the polls may act to encourage McCain supporters and those who are anti-liberal but not necessarily Republican (Libertarians for example) to come out in their numbers to support McCain for fear of having a Democratic President, House and Senate. If this occurs in key battle ground states, it could give McCain the much needed boost he needs to get catch up to Obama. Similarly, Obama’s lead could lead to overconfidence and complacency on the part of his supporters which causes many of them not to vote since in their eyes Obama has already clinched the presidency. If this happened in key states like Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania it could be a route to a McCain presidency.

In Barbados, our former Prime Minister is known for saying that the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. As shown, polls can be misleading or have unintended consequences on the population. On the evening of November 4th I look forward to watching with a cold Heineken in hand as the results come through on CNN and I truly hope that Americans elect Barack Obama the next POTUS.

24 comments

  • “and de facto leader of the world.”

    Why on Earth would you want to coin such a phrase? Ya wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

    Leader of the most powerful nation on Earth, alright… but nah, don’ say dose tings man…

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  • Young vote is one thing, but what about all those people who would say “Yeah I votin’ for a Black President” to purposefully mislead the pollsters.

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  • I had come earlier to say how happy I am because I had just seen on the news that Senator Obama was leading in the polls, so I came on to say so, but then I came and read the above and my heart just sank, just sank I tell you.

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  • Hey Zewditu Kush
    i didnt mean depress you. I believe Obama will win BUT if he loses it will be a combination of these factors that causes it.

    BAFBFP the purposefully misleading the pollsters is counted under the Bradley Effect. I am not sure how much of an effect this will be. and I will admit i got a bit carried away with the leader of the free world expression 🙂

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  • The BU household agrees with the writer of this blog. This race has tossed up some unknowns but what we know is that the independents/youth vote will be the deciding factor.

    It is also interesting to note that a recent poll shows that over 50% to 35% feel that Palin is seriously not ready to lead, hello, hello! Should this not reflect on the judgement of the veteran McCain? Instead America focuses on the so called gaffes which Biden has been know to make from time to time.

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  • I am quietky confident that Mr Obama will win the elections. If the doations made from ordinary persons is any indication, he shpuld win easily. My prediction is that he either have a landslide victory or the electios will be “stolen from him. I think the American voting system is seriously flawed

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  • Election fraud is too easy in the USA.

    See how it is already done.

    http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/465.html

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  • Straight talk
    Up til yesterday, voters were still complaining that their vote for a Dem was being flipped to the RNC. The machines are now to be calibrated every morning.

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  • Just look thru this hit piece and see it for what it really is. If the strongest candidate does not win this sham, then they can always blame it on the “youth vote.” How dare you blame it on the real issues such as rigging the machines? If you use Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 as a precedence, then you’ve just confirmed that this piece is fraudulent and misleading since fraud was very present in both cases.

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  • @Hopi

    If fraud has been so evident in previous presidential elections and hints in the early voting now why don’t the vanquished use the justice system of America?

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  • “why don’t the vanquished use the justice system of America?”
    Because it is corrupt too!

    And so too the mainstream media.

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  • Hi C. Evelyn, My dear my heart sank as I was celebrating most of the afternoon by listening to my old tapes of SWV, Bobby Valentino, and New Edition. I was euphoric to think that next Thursday time like yesterday when you posted your blog, it will be over and Barback will be the President of the USA. Then I came and I tell you I got bad feelings, not your fault, just me. I am not listening to all their analysis of he must carrry this state and it is crucial this age group supports him, and this and that. I just turn off the TV when they are doing their predication but as David said, the former PM use to say the only poll that counts is the poll in voting day. But anyway, I am praying and hoping, and staying quite. Anyway, C. it’s not your fault, just me all nervous about this election. Nervous I tell you, I can’t explain it , is like I am not too sure,

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  • DAVID… “If Fraud….” see BAFBFP. The justice system in the US only works in the criminals’ favour. See what the “highest court” in the land did for Dubya?

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  • McCain’s age should be a factor given the normal hectic schedule of a President, especially so in the current environment.

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  • Every vote counts in a close race. Let us hope all goes well.
    Have a laugh in the meantime.
    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f7d_1222962429

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  • Wall Street’s Great Heist of 2008
    1st November 2008

    The Wall Street Journal published a front-page article Friday reporting that the nine biggest US banks, which have received a combined $125 billion in taxpayer funds as part of the $700 billion bailout authored by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and passed by the Democratic Congress, owed their executives more than $40 billion for recent years’ compensation and pensions as of the end of 2007.

    This means that nearly a third of the public funds given to these banks will ultimately be used to increase the private fortunes of a handful of multimillionaire Wall Street executives.

    This revelation, the result of an analysis of the banks’ corporate reports by the American financial elite’s own chief organ, provides a stark exposure of the social interests that are being served by the government bailout. More generally, it provides an instructive insight into class relations in America.

    It has already been widely reported that the banks are refusing to use their government windfalls to resume lending to other banks, businesses and consumers—the ostensible purpose of the cash injections—and are, instead, hoarding the money for the purpose of acquiring smaller and weaker banks. The so-called economic rescue plan is, in fact, a plan to effect a rapid consolidation of the US banking system, resulting in the domination of the economy by a few mega-banks, which will be free to set interest rates and lending standards as they see fit.

    SNIP

    The events of the past two months have brought into sharper focus the naked power exercised by the American financial aristocracy over society and the state. All of the various schemes devised in response to the near-collapse of the financial system have had one thing in common: they proceed from the need to uphold the interests of the most powerful banks and the richest of the rich.

    The combination of impotence, servility and duplicity of Congress and its Democratic leadership is being mercilessly exposed. Charles Schumer, the Democratic chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said this week in regard to the banks’ refusal to use the government money to extend new loans, “There’s not much we can do other than jawbone.”

    Christopher Dodd, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, blustered, “The intent here certainly wasn’t for healthy banks to buy healthy banks—it’s infuriating.”

    Dodd, it would seem, is shocked to learn that the bailout plan he adamantly supported is being used to serve the narrow self-interest of the bankers. Even if one makes the implausible assumption that this veteran of Washington politics and favorite of Wall Street is not being disingenuous, that does not alter the fact of his utter prostration before the real power brokers in America.

    Nothing is permissible that impinges on the basic prerogatives of the financial oligarchy, no matter the cost to the American people. On critical matters regarding the class interests of the ruling elite, the people have no say.

    There is a ruling class in America. The administration, Congress, the courts—all of the agencies of the state—are, behind the trappings of democracy, instruments of its domination.

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/nov2008/pers-n01.shtml

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  • GM…. Very true…and this same filthy, stinking,vampire ruling class has its tentacles spread out across the world and for those leader they can’t control we see wars and rumors of wars. I find it very easy to see this election charade for what it really is.. a SHAM. Chuck Schumer and Chris Dodd are only paying lipservice to the sheeple because they are quite aware of the butterers of their bread. And after these slimebags got the damn loot they celebrated and berated the american sheeple by splurging on mega trips and mega parties while they the vultures keep the sheeple’s nut in an even more tightening vice.

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  • Pingback: Zogby Poll: McCain Moves Into Lead Over Obama (Republicans Ramp Up Disgusting Attacks On Obama’s Family) « Barbados Free Press

  • We continue to be amazed while observing the early voting process the horror stories being reported. We respect that the USA practices a federalist system but surely after Florida they should know that they have to throw some resources at improving the voting system.

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  • As per Hopi: “I find it very easy to see this election charade for what it really is.. a SHAM. “

    Hopi, you got that right.

    Establishment Messiah
    Posted by Justin Raimondo on October 09, 2008

    ” Now, let me just close by saying this. I do not think this is going to be easy. It’s not going to come without costs. We are all going to need to sacrifice. We’re all going to need to pull our weight, because now, more than ever, we are all in this together. Now, that’s part of what this crisis has taught us, that, in the end of the day, there’s no real separation between Wall Street and Main Street. There’s only the road we’re traveling on as Americans. And we will rise or fall on that journey as one nation and as one people.”
    ~Barack Obama

    Thus the junior senator from Illinois rationalizes his support of the bailout. And if you read the whole speech, you’ll find that it is highly unusual, especially for a Democratic politician. There is none of the class warfare rhetoric, none of the Palinesque denunciations of “greed” and “predatory” lenders, which made the perky GOP vice presidential nominee sound, at times during the VP debate, like a combination of William Jennings Bryan and Father Coughlin. Oh no, that’s not Obama’s style at all, and especially when it comes to the bailout issue, because, you see, his entire mission is to convince the American people that there truly is “no separation between Main Street and Wall Street”—because, after all, he is Lehman Brothers’ bridge between the two. As the http://www.OpenSecrets.org web site points out, Lehman Bros. was generous with its contributions to members of Congress, especially Democrats:

    ” In the current Congress, 271 lawmakers have collected nearly $3 million since 1989, with 72 percent going to Democrats. Democratic presidential candidates and senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama top the list of all-time recipients for the company, collecting $410,000 and $395,600 respectively. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a member of both the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee and the Senate Finance Committee, hauled in $181,450, while Sen. Chris Dodd, chair of the Senate banking committee, has collected $165,800.”

    That’s just the tip of the iceberg. If we look at the list of contributors to Obama’s presidential campaign, we can see that he is, for all intents and purposes, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lehman Bros., not to mention J.P. Morgan, Citibank, real-estate holding companies, and a veritable Who’s Who of the sub-prime mortgage lenders who are now being bailed out at a cost to the taxpayers—so far—of $700 billion.

    Obama’s campaign would have us believe that he’s the anti-corporate candidate, a populist “man of the people” whose race for the White House is being funded by tens and twenties sent in by ordinary folks who can’t wait to see him crack down on Wall Street abuses. What they don’t want you to know is that, out of the two and a half million donors to the Obama campaign, around 180,000 top dogs account for almost 60% of his campaign treasury. Who are these people? Let’s take a closer look….

    SNIP

    Obama’s backers in the world of high finance—platoons of top execs from Lehman Brothers, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Chase, Morgan Stanley, Countrywide—were all intimately involved in the mortgage fiasco. They profited, bigtime, from the Greenspan Bubble, and now they expect their bought-and-paid-for presidential candidate to bail them out – and he hasn’t disappointed them.

    SNIP

    This system is finished: the Hamiltonian, state-capitalist corporate state that emerged out of the postwar era, and was based on the Federal Reserve’s “soft” dictatorship over the economy, is over. It is, in short, a dictatorship of the bankers. Empowered to create assets out of thin air by government fiat, the lords of high finance colluded with the lords of Washington to create a system based on fraud, pure and simple. Now that fraud is coming unraveled—but, have no fear! A messiah has come to save them, a multi-culti FDR to sell the bailout to the masses and ensure the banksters’ place as pillars of society. Will he succeed? Can he succeed?

    Let’s hope not.

    http://www.takimag.com/site/article/establishment_messiah/

    Like

  • To the desperate and downtrodden(which happens to be about 85% of the masses) Obama appears as the Messiah whispering sweet nothings in the ears of the deaf. He appeared on the scene out of nowhere and he was placed in that position by the puppet master and yes white folk, like a drowning man catching at a straw, will vote for him, because they’ve battered and bruised the world and now they themselves have become battered and bruised so any band-aid is welcomed. Since the bankers have him in their back-pockets and since he and his wife are members of the CFR, I will just watch this play itself out.

    Even Sarah Palin admitted to a Canadian prankster that she does not think that they, the republicans will win this election. So she has already called
    it in Baracks’ favor.

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  • Hoopi, I too just read in the papers that a man in Canada claiming to be the President of France called up Sarah Palin and she thought it was the real President of France. What a foolish woman, she even told the fake French President that she can see Russia from Alaska to which he replied that he can see Belgium from his bedroom window in France. My goodness, it just like today in the Guyana newspapers there is a lovely picture of His Excellency The Honourable Prime Minister of Barbados with the President of Guyana, and I wonder to myself what the President of Guyana is saying to His Excellency, maybe he is saying he can see Barbados from his bedorom window in Guyana, the article said, that the President of Guyana said to PM Thompson that Barbados authorities need to treat the illegal Guyanese with resepct and dignity, and the PM said, well if they are truthful to Barbadian authorities they will get proper treatment. A blogger here said Barbados had a small eeconomy, well sure small compared to the US, but not Guyana. Barbados’s economy is twice that of Guyana’s and Guyana has twice the population of Barbados, and Guyana’s 83,000 sq. miles is supposedly mineral rich, so I don’t know.

    Like

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