Barbados’ Economy Continues to Grow
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115 responses to “Barbados’ Economy Continues to Grow”
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@ David
The most worrying figure in that report to me was inflation.
In 2019 it was just under 1% in the first quarter and in 2023 it was over 6%. I mean we cant blame government for that as our inflation is imported, but Lord 6 times higer aint nothing to laugh at in the Bajan pocket!
The spend per head in the first quarter was a bit better than the first quarter of 2019 but again that would of been druven byy inflation too as was shown in the report…
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@John A
Importers will tell you prices continue to be negatively affected by disruption to the market caused by Covid 19. As you indicated Barbados is a price taker therefore we have little wiggle room to deflate inflation bubble.
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What irony?
A Barbados economy which continues to grow.
Will this economy every grow up. To be an adult?
Or is growth the fool’s errand, never to reach adulthood?
The child never growing up!
What in nature keeps growing but never to maturity?
1966 as point of departure, and independence the direction of travel, how does any organism 50-plus continue to grow?
Why is it necessary for “growth” to be this irrational, unnatural, imposition, meaning little more than an arbitrary metric devoid of meaning in the end?
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I feels this man Greenidge is a Giant. He telling we tings good. I gotta believe he. I feel Mia gine cut all we a cheque for a tousand dollers before de nex election.
I believe. -
So @ John A
If we measure performance by ‘net dollars’ to establish so-called ‘growth’, is it not obvious that inflation MUST be a key consideration?
Joe Doe on the Block measures ‘growth’ by how much better off he or she is – not by monopoly numbers added by the CBB.If Bushie had to spend $1000 in 2019 to buy food, and now has to find $1100 to buy the same shiite food… does that not represent a DECLINE?
…meanwhile the shiite central bank counting the money used to buy the SAME food as in 2019 (at $1100) and talking shiite about growth???
It can ONLY represent growth if Bushie’s income INCREASED by more than inflation .. ie to MORE than $1100.
…ent it?There MUST be at least one intelligent journalist who can ask such basic questions – rather than just fill the News with the lotta jobby we are hearing from these clowns….
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Pacha, William,TLSN etc……people are seeing very clearly WHO set them up. They know it’s the parliament Nigas, their backward imps, fowls, Slaves and pimps LURED and MISLED them into CHAOS UNLEASHED….that’s what all those multiple chairs were for…
Look how things BACKFIRED…i will watch from the sidelines…..i leave them to meet their Karma and Retribution for what they have done.
Not a whole lot left to say..
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Waru
WHO was set up precisely for that.Moreover, all the socalled world bodies depending on US printed money, the American financial system, it’s education system for their children, or personal greed and as personally compromised, even sporting organizations, are unhelpful in a genuinely multipolar world.
In this country the ALBA Games are going on and Russia is a participant.
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How do these traitors set up their people and feel comfortable.
..their Judas roles were years established, none of them can hide or shift blame to anyone else, weeee long knew of their dishonesty and untrustworthiness..
They MUST face the people, but being such dangerous cowards, hiding behind layers and layers of dumb Slaves or hiding behind anonymity…let’s see how they try to make an escape……..
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Mia to co-chair session
PRIME MINISTER Mia Amor Mottley took on some more duties yesterday given her international positioning as a leader in the fight against climate change.
The Barbadian leader was named as co-chair of the global environmental initiative, Power Our Planet: Act Today. Save Tomorrow campaign.
It was launched in the United States during a Global Citizen symposium where leaders of nations in the global north met to unite with leaders from the global south in an effort to address climate change and extreme poverty. (BA)Source: Nation
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@John A
Jeremy seems to be lining up with our position.
Not yet out of the woods
by COLVILLE MOUNSEY colvillemounsey@nationnews.com
THE BARBADOS ECONOMY may have recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is not out of the woods yet, says economist Jeremy Stephen.
He said a return to pre-COVID-19 performance was a far cry from saying the country had reached its economic safe harbour.
Professor emeritus of the University of the West Indies Cave Hill, Michael Howard concurred and said it was concerning that the country’s bread and butter tourism arrivals were not yet back to 2019 levels.
On Wednesday, Central Bank Governor Dr Kevin Greenidge, delivering his first quarterly press conference since taking up the post on March 1, declared a full recovery of the economy, spearheaded by the tourism sector. He said the signs that the country was past the worst included single-digit unemployment numbers not seen since 2007.
Stephen, a former banking and finance lecturer, said much would now depend on strong economic management and diversification over the next ten years.
“Outside of economic planning, it does not say that this economy is back to the size it was before COVID, which is smaller than it was 15 years ago. So, the recovery does not really state improved opportunity but rather a return to where we were around the post-2018 change in Government.
“This means that there needs to be some form of economic management and diversification over the next ten years. We have pretty much returned to about 70 to 80 per cent of what travel numbers were in 2019 but not necessarily where it could have been if we had a fresher tourism product, or at least one that is better suited to the high-value tourism market that we need to sustain us,” he explained.
The Central Bank Governor also said tourism’s recovery to 78 per cent of its pre-pandemic level by the end of March positively impacted other areas of the economy.
“The economy has recovered. For the first quarter of 2023, the economy grew by 6.4 per cent and that represents a consecutive quarters of economic growth, indicating that the economy has recovered from the COVID slump,” Greenidge reported.
Quarterly numbers
“Indeed, if we were to look at the quarterly numbers in terms of the level of economic output, both real and nominal, you will see that [when you] compare March 2023 with 2019, which is the year before COVID really began in terms of real GDP (gross domestic product), real economic output, which is the value not just the volume of goods and services produced, we are virtually on par.”
In his response, Howard said the economic performance, though positive, still had several areas that should cause Barbadians some concern.
“One cannot deny that there has been a rebound in tourism. I think what the data is showing is that our tourism recovery is far below the others in the other tourism countries in the Caribbean. We have to take note of that because what we are seeing are fairly high arrival numbers, but we do not know what revenues are coming in.
“However, I would accept the view that the economy grew in the first quarter because of tourism. I would not advise Dr Greenidge to be boastful of the tourism because the present tourism is still below what it was in 2019, so we still have to go a fair way. From this economic report, I do not see an economic plan to get this country firing on more than one growth engine,” Howard said.
The veteran economist also questioned the Governor’s unemployment figures of seven per cent, noting his reservation this would not have accounted for the close to 3 000 people who were recently sent home from the ash clean-up programme.
“If unemployment is down to seven per cent and tourism is still not as strong as it was in 2019, where is the employment coming from? There has been no methodology given on how the employment figures have been calculated. In the past we used to hear about employment surveyors and I have not heard about those recently.
“Recently, we had more than 3 000 people laid off; were they in the employment figures? It has to be said that Dr Greenidge tries to give an over-optimistic forecast and he identifies the main elements of the economy that would support that forecast,” Howard said.Source: Nation
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@Bush Tea
Yes sir you are 103% correct ( the 3% is for inflation).
The problem for us is has the economy REALLY grown or have we just grown due to inflation? So are we as a people better off in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022 or are we in fact poorer and catching ass due to higher prices? What then is real growth and how should one measure it?
Personally i feel economic growth is when all benefit. From the hair braider to the CEO. But how realistic is that in real terms? From what i can see things are tougher on the average Bajan due to higher prices and living cost. But dont mind that they going still brek down reggae at the hill this weekend. Lol
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@ David
Yes Jeremy usually calls it as is. I mean you can present numbers to suit your purpose but in the end numbers dont lie, but the manner in which the are presented can be misleading if that is the intent of the presenter.
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@John A
We need to contextualize, whether micro or macro economics.
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@ Bush Tea
You formula left out 1 important number.
If you spent $1000 in 2022 for the period but $1100 in 2023 are you poorer? Depends on your income also if you had an income of $1500 in 2022 but that grew to $1800 in 2023 then your net position is still better in 2023. This as a reuslt of your net income being $500 in 2022 but $700 in 2023.
That is why i say one must watch for the cherry picking in comments on reports.
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Whereas former governor Haynes adopted a sober approach to communicating the state of the economy, Greenidge seems to going the route of sprinkling his reviews with embellishments and hyperbole.
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Point taken John A..
But Bushie spent $1100 …FOR THE SAME DAMN FOOD… and since we all know that only Senior Ministers got the kind of pay increases to outstrip inflation, then it stands to reason that we are mostly worse off…To your point however, Bushie had agreed that “It can ONLY represent growth if Bushie’s income INCREASED by more than inflation .. ie to MORE than $1100.”
@ David
What macro economic what??!! that concept is a roll of jobby.‘Macro economics’ is nothing but ‘voodoo book keeping’ – which is designed to issue degrees to second rate students who could never pass medicine or sciences.
Consider their benchmark indicator called ‘GDP’ for example.
Two mega billionaires only need to decide to live in Brassbados and open shell businesses to avoid taxes back at home – and our so-called ‘per capita GDP’ suddenly sounds like an impressive achievement…. lotta shiite!!The BOTTOM LINE is that a country’s economic performance should be measured by the standard of living of the lowest level of that society WHO HAS SHOWN A SERIOUS DESIRE TO BE PRODUCTIVE.
This is probably best represented by the so-called ‘minimum wage’ and ultimately, by its purchasing power….Measuring national economic performance by ‘playing with macro numbers’ is pure shiite…. and only brass bowls could fall for such tactics – even while they are hard pressed to buy basic damn food in the foreign owned supermarkets.
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@ David
You still don’t get it…
This is EXACTLY why he was hired.
This was his style as economic advisor too… To be PR manager for government strategy of borrow, borrow and brag……and of promising handouts to the b bowls on the Blocks
The closest we EVER came to hearing sober, rational debate in this cuntree was when Atherley and Caswell held positions of influence in government.
That the powers that be went to such lengths to REMOVE them, should have been a RED FLAG…. but brass bowls are color blind…We will soon see if brass bowls can FEEL…
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@Bush Tea
GDP is used agreed but we have HDI, forex reserves, employment rate etc.
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@Bush Tea
There is a lot the blogmaster struggles, a human failing.
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Dont care how they twist and turn it, facilitators and partakers in crimes for profit can NEVER clean up this evil mess they created, they can bring distraction after distraction……..NO ONE with intelligence IS BUYING…
They outperformed themselves…they are MARKED…
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The good news…the economy has recovered!!! This removes (well never really removes) the perpetual blaming on a past event. More good news, the big changes (and they were not many) can be found in massive growth in MDI debt. This means any future defaults, given that BOSS+ are excluded, will fall more on them than the NIS/CBB. Not much on NIS, other than an early repayment of a partial Bond issue.
The less positive news, as expected there was a stiff rise in debt servicing costs. This will continue through 2023, though many external efforts are aimed at mitigating these. And the transfers to SOE’s remain unchanged.
The unknown….how much of the gains in VAT receipts will actually be collected? This has a problematic past.
Time to prepare for Crop Over and lose a few pungs so we can fit into the costumes. Thank goodness for spandex!! -
Oh and @David
the NIR items for the banks seem to be well concealed, given the new GoCBB mouthings? -
@NO
The banks have a friend in Greenidge if you listen to his commentary- “the banks are doing more than we give them credit” or words to that effect.
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Pacha…we know not to mind the local blowhards…they are full of shit, just like the pretender who leads them..
“First Republic: Future of US bank in doubt as investors flee
26 April 2023
First Republic Bank customers pulled roughly $100bn from the company last month
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Image caption,Shares in First Republic have tumbled nearly 30% to close at a new record low amid renewed fears the US bank could be the next to collapse.
The sell-off extended steep declines from a day earlier after the bank said customers had pulled $100bn in deposits from the bank in March.”
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@ Bush Tea
Yes sir on the whole wage increases have not kept up with inflation and in real terms we are poorer by the day.
What set us back badly though was the 10 years of no increases we suffered. If inflation averaged 2 % compounded over those years, at the end of that decade $ 100 barely bought $70 in goods after adjusting for inflation. So at the end of that period Bajans have little to no chance to catch up with inflation. Then you add the hyperinflation of 2022 into 2023 and we are all chasing a greyhound on the back of a turtle. I would go further and say that in real terms none of us in our lifetime will ever catch up with inflation, meaning we will not see the days of 2007 again in our lifetime. Sad as it is we all need to accept it and cut our suit to the cloth we have now.
So yes you are dam right in real terms we are brek as tail at month end.
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Puppets and minions have to wait for instructions and permissions re any financial considerations…..
On a side note…just saw information where trans kids are given dangerous mind altering drugs to transition to what they plan to achieve, saw a mutilated kid recently, it was terrible to watch, he did not survive the transition operation…..watch out for many more shootings and suicides coming up.
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@John A
If what you say is correct how does it line up with the argument that we are a country living above our means and therefore creating an environment where there is internal devaluation is a good bad medicine?
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“…but we have HDI, forex reserves, employment rate etc.”
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Boss…
Choose any of these indexes of terms conceived by the greed demons of this world, and Bushie will be happy to apply the SMELL test – so that you can properly locate them in the ‘shiite category’.Employment rate is the biggest joke..
They have gerrymandered this to now exclude those who have been frustrated to the point of giving up looking for work. So 7% unemployment does NOT mean 7% of those of working age, as they EXCLUDE various groups that have the tendency to make the figure look bad…Foreign reserves – another big joke.
Essentially this is our National Savings Account, but ours is comprised of deposits of BORROWED funds, FDI, and other funds that are only available to us on the GOODWILL of others.REAL reserves should be funds that the country has EARNED, and put aside for rainy days.
HDI is another index that means squat in REAL terms. ‘Eddykashun’ investments, life expectancy, and Gross national Income all sound impressive, but we have discussed at length the waste that represents our investment in eddykashun. And our ‘life expectancy’ must be balanced against our being the diabetes and amputation center of the world, and by the lotta obese people whose QUALITY of life must be more of a liability than an asset.
Boss…
In the FINAL analysis, it is how we treat ‘the least among us’ that best measures our economic health.
What is your assessment of our performance against this index? -
@Bush Tea
Another index you can refer is how challenging it is to drive through avenues in the Pine, Deacons, Grazettes and other government (low income) housing areas.
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Bushman….and that is where simple math eludes them….with all their shite degrees……they only calculate in big numbers and forget the baseline…those who hold THE ECONOMY UP, those at the bottom….dumbasses are yet to learn that the bottom LONG DROPPED OUT…cant even bother to elaborate on that, but the intelligent will get it…
I said this weeks ago and it went straight over their heads…..
“every day the bucket ah go ah well, one day the bottom ah go drop out.” – Bob Marley…
….an economy based PRIMARILY on LOANS…is not yours, not under your control…per the Monroe Doctrine….when you get the stats from the LENDERS..then i will be interested..otherwise all this is bullshit distraction….meant to promote pretenders and make them look good…. who themselves are swimming in shit…
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@ David
Are we living above our means or do we have distorted priorities?
Yes we have less buying power in real terms but have you seen the amount of Jaguars and Mercedes on the road? Will reggae on the hill this year only have 100 people? No sir.
I just think we as a people need to relook our priorities and stop chasing the Joneses. We have massive amounts of savings on the bank earning 0.5% yet we do nothing with it. Have you seen the balance sheet of SigniaGlobe for last year? They lend money and had a great year. I am not against people borrowing but the purpose should be for betterment not bling.
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@John A
Agree with you to a point. Who will tame the beast that is conspicuous consumption?
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Bushman…they would have never thought of that one…that’s the report they need to see…the one that tells a COMPLETE story…..the LENDER’S report on economic performance…..of course they never will…
The lender’s perspective, where they can’t fudge or hide anything. .
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@ David
Absolutely!!…and then there is the Index that the most serious crime challenge ever faced by the Cuntree is now in a state of truce that has been brokered by one ‘Iston’…
Do you grasp the significance of this index…?
Bragging about money is the root of much evil bout here….
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I watched the pretend experts for years. Dont know who they were performing for, but the BASICS always escape them….any REAL expert would tell them…..am sure they too watched and laughed.
I only know basic things…..when all else fails…it’s ALWAYS….back to basics…it saves ya looking like an expert fool..
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Pacha…these types are very strange..they pretend they own the people’s Empire…desperately so….but hanging on to the coattails of the UN Secretary General, begging for a new financial system as they have been straining themselves for weeks…but are they not his boss too…desperation for big league recognition is a hell of a thing…
I know there is already an UMU roll out soon to be in progress, i see it in the newsfeed i am getting…so what game is being played here…should they not be focusing instead on the SECURITY FEATURES of the DIGITAL ID they are trying to use sleight of hand…..not to implement..with any security features.
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Someone posted on another platform that the financial system rollout already started. I did not do any followup…did not focus on a timeline…..only read the report published by some places after the Spring meet….how the hell pretenders missed that. At least stay on top of current events and changes.
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Nod to report, but professor warns against expanding surplus
By Emmanuel Joseph
A local university professor has given the Central Bank’s latest economic review the thumbs up, but with a caution to the Government.
Director of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute for Social and Economic Studies (SALISES) at the University of the West Indies (UWI), Cave Hill Campus Professor Don Marshall said on Thursday he supports the Governor’s first-quarter performance report that Barbados has recovered from the fall-out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In his first economic review press conference since becoming governor on March 1, Dr Kevin Greenidge on Wednesday reported record levels of tourism arrivals, falling unemployment, a primary surplus that surpassed the target set under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a 6.4 per cent first-quarter economic growth, the eighth consecutive quarter of expansion since 2019.
The Governor stated that driven by tourism, the economy had recovered following the impact of the COVID- 19 pandemic and is now “larger in size than in 2019 in terms of nominal value, and virtually on par in real value”.
Today, Professor Marshall gave his nod to the report, stating it “well covered” the important aspects of the economy, even as the governor notes the persistent challenges to the deficit.
“But the idea that there are green shoots of recovery is one that I could support. I could support it in the sense that if you bracket out the year for COVID, I could see that the tourism recovery was quite robust, with an 82.3 per cent hotel occupancy year-to-year,” the SALISES head told Barbados TODAY.
Marshall said that at this point, the post- COVID tourism arrivals have been quite encouraging.
“We are back to the pre-COVID upward trend,” he said.
“At the same time, we also recognise the fiscal deficit remains one that is externally financed.
We also see that it is in keeping with some of the determinations, seeking to reduce deficits and turn them into surpluses. I am on record as saying that for small economies that require the difficult diversifications to make for structural growth and transformation, you cannot pursue that while maintaining surpluses of three, four, five per cent,” Professor Marshall cautioned.
He noted that the primary surplus had ended the period at $304.2 million or 2.5 per cent of GDP.
However, the senior economist had a word of caution for the Mia Mottley administration.
“Just let me caution against any greater expansion of the surplus. I know we have to, in accordance with the IMF, raise revenue, but government cannot really avoid engaging in deficit-spending if it’s going to see improvements in the area of agriculture, manufacturing and assisting all of the small and medium-sized enterprises clustered around these two sectors,”
Professor Marshall advised.
He further explained: “I don’t think government can avoid providing social protection by way of maintaining healthcare, education at the tertiary level and so on. There is a structural limitation to how much you can, as a responsible government, maintain social protection, stimulate growth in new sectors of the economy, like the renewable sector for example, and still try to maintain a strategy of achieving a surplus over expenditure upward of four per cent.
“I think you might get some surplus and try to run small deficits at best. But if you have a surplus of two per cent, I think that is responsible and reasonable. But if you are talking about the economy that needs to undergo and get past its limited diversification, then there is going to be government expenditure. There is no way around that. And if you are talking about the economy that has to struggle with climate change emergencies, ensuring we tackle youth unemployment, it has to join the private sector in providing solutions to some of these problems.
That will involve expenditure that is not covered in the estimates,” the director of SALISES contended.
“I understand the text book requirement and the requirement of the IMF in relation to the ideal target in the next three to four years of running consistent fiscal surpluses of four per cent, but I maintain that that formula is not appropriate to an economy like ours at this time,” he argued.
On the question of unemployment, Professor Marshall embraced the improvements, even though he questioned whether some people had withdrawn from formal employment or from formal job seeking. -
“Who will tame the beast that is conspicuous consumption?”
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If you were a Bible follower like the two GPs, you would have known the answer to that KEY question -even before the brass bowls took the worship of money and materialism to the ridiculous heights that we now all accept as ‘progress’.Just know that during the taming process, it a go be dread ina Babylon….
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By your view Bush Tea we have a problem given the secular world we live in.
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Goldman is saying that technology, AI, will eliminate 300 millions jobs.
As the kabooki theatre in Washington over the debt ceiling enters the penultimate act.
Regional banks continue to receive hundreds of billion as depositors head for the biggest banks.
The 17 trillions in deposits increasing being seen as at risk in a bank run, at home. Even as Elon Musk concedes that USD hegemony is over.
On top of 5 trillion debt from 2020 alone. Banks failures in the offing. Commercial real estate collapse looming as technology radically changes the nature of work and big-box stores find it impossible to continue.
All examples as forces behind this fictitious growth the resident asshole in the CBoB pretends to exist.
It shall be the big deckie in dey poooookerts …….. on all fronts. Pun intended!
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“By your view Bush Tea we have a problem”
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LOL
This is very likely to be EXACTLY what the Captain of the Titanic said when briefed on the damage done by the iceberg.Yours is an even bigger understatement Boss…
Like the Titanic captain, we operated under the misguided ‘scientific’ assessment that we were unsinkable, only to be now confronted with ‘icebergs’ in the form of Climate Change, idiotic leaders, and brassbowlery of biblical proportions.
So….
Ya got that right Boss… We HAVE a BIG problem. -
I have great difficulty in believing that poor people whose meager earnings go in bus fares and trying to keep their children in school , barely able to send them some days, are living above their means.
For example, we were talking about diversifying and transforming the economy for the last forty years and it is still essentially the same economy.
Once more, we are failing to connect the dots. -
“technology, AI, will eliminate 300 millions jobs.”
The last 2 weeks has been very enlightening, new era, changes, lots already happening..etc..
William…you already know it’s more looonnnggg talk…and NO CHANGES…they will however work overtime to trap each other in the 1930s era where they are most comfortable…but the people will RESIST..
However we want to look at the bigger countries…compare what they are doing to what the small island backward are doing, big difference..
The more progressive know they HAVE TO change to survive..
…the backward only want to keep everyone trapped in their obsessions and delusions…no progress, no changes, no upward mobility….only stagnation.
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Pacha…back to school is absolutly thrilling….great topic for future dissection.
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Waru
Not sure any kind of schooling could be an antidote to what AI portends.To us this developmental arc seems bent towards another round of feudalism.
Of course, we are likely wrong!
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Unless AI can do ntchr in the ancent sense with all that portends….they are yet to catch up..as you know.
Gotta give AI its props though, they are very good.
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.