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Recently John A sent a couple interesting articles to the blogmaster that served as a reminder what a future state will possibly be for the next generation of Barbadian, the so-called millennial.

Despite our rich investment in formal education there is a palpable lack of cognitive awareness by Barbadians to give weight to what is important. A case in point- it required Prime Minister Mia Mottley repeating what had been stated by others for years AND what was explained in NIS actuarial reports since 2013 for the majority of Barbadians to understand the implications for pensioners. For Mottley to tackle the problem of the NIS fund which poses a risk to her government’s popularity was enough to jolt Barbadians from a comatose state.

In 2007/8 the global financial crisis had the effect of decimating incomes and investment portfolios across all strata in our key tourism and international business markets. Local financial talking heads have suggested that the Barbados economy is to fully recover from the hit. Isn’t it ironic 15 years later our key productive sectors have not changed appreciably? In fact the current investment project pipeline is congested with tourism related projects.

Now we have John A’s articles which reveal a worrying trend in the UK and US- generational wealth of millennials in the two countries has stagnated. Although the majority of Barbadians are ignorant to the implications of this developing trend, there is a simple truth, the US and UK are our two significant source markets for tourism, foreign direct investment AND remittances. 

The blogmaster challenges you and you to read the two articles to appreciate what a future state may look like.

It is fair to suggest in the absence of similar analysis the same trend applies to Barbados. Barbados is one of the countries the spiral of the economy of the post 2006/7 period is yet to experience a bounce, subsequent catastrophic events have not helped. Recently the government announced that in the face of economic uncertainty Barbados will renew the IMF agreement. We should have time to unpack the implication of the decision, however, discerning BU regulars are fully aware of the root issues.

It does not give the blogmaster pleasure to state what should be obvious. Our current economic path is plotted to arrive at a destination to nowhere fast. We continue to try to induce economic performance from a ‘not fit for purpose’ economic model. One does not have to posses the nous of Nostradamus to predict the outcome.


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109 responses to “Millennials Poorer – What it Means for Barbados”


  1. No surprises here. I did post a couple of years back that excessive housing costs are a crippler to an economy, destroying discretionary income and thus economic growth.

    In the USA and UK, this derives drom multiple factors. A shortage of housing stock, for which a comparison is missing in both articles, large hedge and pension fund investment in the “easy” market and, particularly in the UK, a rush of foreign money from questionable sources, over the past fufteen to twenty years, all contribute.

    Remember the furor at the commencement of the Russian / Ukraine war and references to Russian funds in UK property?

    Dirty money spends way above regular market values to become legit.

    That obviously inflates the market.

    However, underlying much of this is an over concentration of productive jobs in China and India, compared to other countries.

    One may wax lyrical about comparative advantage and those best suited to produce certain products, however, jobs lost in a country will still undermine that country.

    Compounding all of this is the intrinsic change in life and economics brought by technological advancements.

    Many jobs are either changed forever, requiring a whole new set of skills, or obsolete.

    The clincher is that these changes would be easier to adapt to, if housing costs were substantially lower.

    As it is, survival becomed difficult.

    To avoid societal collapse, countries must rein in corporate greed and tax corporations adequately, to fund the necessary drvelopment programs.

    Again, as I said ages ago, there is importance in the non aligned movement of smaller and lesser developed nations in advocating for policy direction, to achieve the required change.

    Without such measures, societal upheaval will threaten the very wealth that greed has created.

    A society is a pyramid, without the willing contribution of the working class, there can be no wealth.

    It is impossible.

    And that is as gentle a scenario as one can describe, of societal breakdown.

    Without even bringing civil unrest into the equation.


  2. On a point related to recent discussions, this is why the whole lifedtyle culture of work and retirement needs to be considered as a whole, not retirement as a separate and distinct category of life.

    I strongly urge thought on the four day week, later retirement and all this entails.

    Why wait until sixty-seven to enjoy some of life, when one can either build more skills, be entreprenurial, or simple enjoy more of your younger days, along the way, before your bones creak?

    I would rather work four days a week and work until seventy-two, than the current standard and worse, what may come.

    We need a paradigm shift in culture.

    I did say it before, I say it again.

    Productivity is not defined by occupying a seat.

    Knowledge, skills, efficiency define it.


  3. @ David

    Also remember here we had a 10 year wage freeze when inflation was running on average at 3% a year. At the end of the 10 year period $100 would only of been worth around $67 in real terms. Our case would therefore be even worst for the said milenials had such a study been done here.


  4. @John A

    Agreed, justification was given by government and local talking heads the freeze was integral to an internal devaluation to protect the peg. What does is say?


  5. Health Vs Wealth
    People should get out of their head and into their body more.

    Sport Science Vs Medical Science
    As good as the first sip of your morning coffee and desert after dinner: Contemporary Pilates with a pinch of Slings Myofascial Training to kickoff and unwind your day.

    For an uplifting start treat yourself with Good Morning Flow.
    And then wind down body and mind with Good Night Flow.

    Inspiration in Movement: Good Morning Flow

    Inspiration in Movement: Good Night Flow


  6. Comment received via Quick Note:

    “This situation has been the issue for years for upwardly mobile young people in B’dos. At a party about 15 years ago, professionals who included a young realtor explained the limitations of salaries & cost of living trigger their option to buy SUVs & if possible a piece of the rock on terms. No one had plans to build in near future. They were in the mid 20s to early 30s”.


  7. You need to get a bird’s eye view of Barbados to appreciate the extent real estate development has destroyed its future prospects.

    Mortgage defaults will occur, real estate prices will fall as the market develops a glut of cheap properties the banks want sold to recoup as much of their outlay as possible.

    The land will be useless to provide the renewable resources it had always done.

    The sooner realize that construction is a dead end activity the better it will be for us.

    You could look at the bright side, the descent of millennials into poverty will be accompanied by falling housing prices.


  8. This is what I never could understand- how is it that the pyramid that is an economy is not recognised. Without that recognition, the economy collapses. Current vampire approaches are unsustainable. We all know that you cannot get blood out of a stone.

    Duuuuh!


  9. @ David

    Poor governance was the problem for lack of raises over that 10 year period. So for example, instead of working on improving the efficiency of government collection via BRA and customs, they chose to stifle the economy to the point of no recovery. When I say no recovery I speak to that in real terms. So the Bajan lost over a third of his buying power in that decade and when you add the inflation of 2022 to that you can understand he or she, is getting close to having his true income cut nearly in half over the last 15 years. Just stop and think on that for a minute before you go any further!

    Now based on that position what is the chance of any of us recovering to where our buying power can catch up with the cost of living in 2022?


  10. Johnny
    Those real estate economics have hardly been applicable to Barbados.

    Of course, your personal and planter class strict orientation limit you from approaching issues of equitable distribution of land.


  11. Johnny
    You can’t argue that policy served to reduce equity, on the one hand.

    And on the other, don’t reward inflation to increases in equity, unless it’s stagflation being considered. And there is no indication of that in your statements.


  12. John A


  13. @ Pacha

    Yes I would agree with that. The problem we face is that we have slipped so far back in real terms that a recovery to say 2007 living standards and income as of today, would take an increase in personal income that basically is unachievable.

    Don’t want to get into the politics of it but just looking at the reality to us a people today. Also the 2 articles speak to our biggest tourism markets so what does their reality mean to our industry going forward?


  14. This may be interesting.


  15. @John A

    What about the supply side of the economy? We can manage as efficiently as we should but if we are not earning enough foreign exchange to pay the bills what next?


  16. DavidSeptember 18, 2022 10:25 AM

    @John A

    What about the supply side of the economy? We can manage as efficiently as we should but if we are not earning enough foreign exchange to pay the bills what next?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It is the informal economy that keeps us afloat, drugs and money laundering and all the inflows are in foreign exchange!!

    The problem is few get to access these sources of income and if they challenge to become participants their existence in this mortal world is threatened.

    GOB prefers to get its cut from facilitating the money laundering and this produces the foreign exchange.

    I got my first job in 1980.

    To buy a car I had to put my name on a list at the garage selling the car I wanted and wait my turn to purchase one when the shipments came.

    Back then it was a function of the country’s access to foreign exchange.

    Most people worked hard in visible definable jobs targeted at earning foreign exchange.

    Today, the country seems to have unfettered access to foreign exchange yet all the visible economic activities which provided employment have fallen,

    The unemployment rate is rarely an issue and is unknown yet many people are unemployed.


  17. Babylon A Fall Down

    Panic in BU

    BU seems to be Doom and Gloom obsessed, especially with the End of World Revelations Bible Posse and their religion and spirituality thinking and Financial Experts worried about money done.

    Reset
    It is better to savor everything in life and dwell on the how and why you do what you do.

    Akobi: First Born S(u)n / Somi

    It’s been overcast and somewhat grey but
    Blue’s not the color that I’ll wear today
    I want some sparkle and I want something warm
    Brewing inside me is a lover’s storm

    They say you are the Firstborn Sun
    I’m wondering could you be the one

    Akobi okunrin jekin jalayonfere akoko
    Akobi okunrin jekin jololufere tooto

    I’ll wear sunglasses if you ask me to
    Kick off my galoshes and walk bare with you
    Our heat against the earth, your whisper in mine
    What’s the true color of a rainbow at nighttime?

    They say you are the Firstborn Sun
    I’m wondering could you be the one

    Akobi okunrin jekin jalayonfere akoko
    Akobi okunrin jekin jololufere tooto*

    meaning
    The birth of a man allows time to pass
    A man’s birth makes him a true lover


  18. The bubble will burst sooner than later!!


  19. @ David

    The fx will always be our challenge. Personally I feel we can do more for ourselves to reduce fx demand especially in the areas of alternative energy and food.


  20. @John

    Agree with the sub-point that it is in the interest of the establishment to maintain real estate values. There is a lot depending on it for some prominent actors in Barbados.


  21. @John A

    There is always room to stop leakage/wastage but it wouldn’t be enough to save us.


  22. September 18, 2022 10:47 AM

    Babylon A Fall Down

    Panic in BU

    BU seems to be Doom and Gloom obsessed, especially with the End of World Revelations Bible Posse and their religion and spirituality

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I don’t get the impression that GP is particularly unhappy about the end of the world, in fact quite the opposite.

    He welcomes it.

    No Doom and Gloom obsession with him, in fact he seems very, very happy and rejoices daily.


  23. Is it possible to discuss a topic for five minutes before resorting to discussing commenters?

    #jesush

    Grow to rh up!


  24. @ David

    We need to make a greater effort in reducing our FX demand. Alternative energy and agriculture are 2 low hanging fruit that we have not exploited as yet.


  25. @John A

    We must of food and fuel make up significant foreign exchange outflow.


  26. When money done who will lose out most
    Blessed are the meek blah blah.. blah blah
    Blessed are the poor blah blah.. blah blah
    Blessed are the peacemakers blah blah.. blah blah
    Blessed are the pure in heart blah blah.. blah blah
    Blessed are the poor in spirit blah blah.. blah blah


  27. [Paid] Problem fixers in life would say
    Last Night A DJ Saved My Life
    There’s not a problem that I can’t fix ‘Cause I can do it in the mix
    Akobi: First Born S (u) n – QB’s Hot Mix Radio Edit

    Akobi: First Born S (u) n – QB’s RainbowAtNightTime DUB Maxd


  28. @ David

    Yes they are 2 major ones. The things is we need to look at this whole fx thing differently. We need to say to ourselves A USD SAVED IS ONE EARNED. Then go aggressively after the areas we can reduce our FX demand.


  29. Sorry about the typo David didn’t mean to call you Davis. Lol


  30. Hah!!

    Wipe clean before kisses 💋


  31. Mr. Clean 🧼

    1) “The Song of Songs 🎶

    2) “Let him kiss me with the kisses of his mouth, for thy love is better than wine.
    3 Because of the savor of thy good ointments, thy name is as ointment poured forth; therefore do the virgins love thee.
    4) Draw me, we will run after thee. The king hath brought me into his chambers.” “We will be glad and rejoice in thee; we will remember thy love more than wine; the upright love thee.”
    5) “I am black, but comely, O ye daughters of Jerusalem, as the tents of Kedar, as the curtains of Solomon.
    6 Look not upon me because I am black, because the sun hath looked upon me. My mother’s children were angry with me; they made me the keeper of the vineyards, but mine own vineyard have I not kept.
    7 Tell me, O thou whom my soul loveth, where thou feedest, where thou makest thy flock to rest at noon; for why should I be as one that turneth aside by the flocks of thy companions?”
    8) “If thou know not, O thou fairest among women, go thy way forth by the footsteps of the flock, and feed thy kids beside the shepherds’ tents.
    9 I have compared thee, O my love, to a company of horses in Pharaoh’s chariots.
    10 Thy cheeks are comely with rows of jewels, thy neck with chains of gold.”
    11) “We will make thee borders of gold with studs of silver.”
    12)” While the king sitteth at his table, my spikenard sendeth forth the smell thereof.
    13 A bundle of myrrh is my wellbeloved unto me; he shall lie all night between my breasts.
    14 My beloved is unto me as a cluster of henna in the vineyards of Engedi.”
    15) “Behold, thou art fair, my love; behold, thou art fair; thou hast doves’ eyes.”
    16 “Behold, thou art fair, my beloved, yea, pleasant. Also our bed is green.
    17 The beams of our house are cedar, and our rafters of fir.


  32. I completely agree with John A’s analysis. Our standard of living is much lower than before 2008 because since then we have had no growth but lots of inflation.

    Will the situation ever get better? Of course it won’t. We are slipping further and further down the HDI scale, so that in three generations we will probably be off the scale altogether and counted among the animal kingdom. The welfare state makes people lazy and stupid. The masses lead a sweet life as lazy civil servants at the expense of our noble businessmen.

    We all know that this crisis of society and the virus of laziness entered the minds of the masses in 2008. Just in the year the DLP seized power.

    Tron, year 1 NR


  33. We have a fortune tied up in vehicles.

    We have over 100,000 vehicles in Barbados.

    How much FX was needed to buy all these cars?

    How much FX is needed on a yearly basis to purchase replacement vehicles?

    How much FX is used in maintaining these vehicles?

    How much FX is used to import the fossil fuels which make them go?

    Let’s say one vehicle needs $250.00USD per month to keep it running, fuel and maintenance

    250 x 100K x 12 = $30 million USD a year.

    Let’s say each vehicle cost $20,000USD.

    So, roughly speaking, we have in excess of $2 billion USD tied up in vehicles which require $30 million USD per year to keep running.

    Some of that will earn FX, but not much.

    There will be jobs created and the insurance sector will profit.

    … and guess what, import duty at 100% means another $2 billion with the GOB.

    Are we shooting ourselves in the foot?


  34. 📈⬆⬆️❤️ 🥰
    Jump 4 Luv


  35. @ 🚘

    “We have over 100,000 vehicles in Barbados”

    Xxxx

    ban the import of all vehicles except utility vehicles, heavy earthmoving machines and agriculture machinery to save dwindling foreign exchange reserves.


  36. @ John September 18, 2022 1:12 PM

    Why are prisoners, unemployed and all other freeloaders not required to do social work? Taken together, that’s at least 75000 people. They could build cars and buses for free.

    I would also introduce a National Labour Service for school leavers. They should do two years of field work on the plantation to strengthen our domestic agriculture, and also upgrade the roads and repair the water pipes.

    When Barbados was the gem of the British Empire, such labour arrangements were commonplace.


  37. We cannot ‘talk’ about banning the importation of vehicles for personal use, without first discussing the implementation of a RELIABLE, EFFICIENT public transportation system.

    People living in the Pine, for example, are disadvantaged because Pine/Wildey mini buses don’t service that route after 7 PM.
    They would have to catch a Silver Hill/Gall Hill route taxi and ‘walk in,’…… or wait for the Transport Board’s 9:15 or 11:15 PM Edey Village service, if a bus is available…… and 12:05 AM.

    There are other routes that are not serviced by Transport Board buses, such as Bush Hall, Forde’s Road/Rendezvous, where ZRs and mini buses don’t ‘run after a certain time,’ thereby forcing persons to either pay a taxi, or catch a bus that passes close to their districts and walk long distances to their homes.

    Could you imagine someone who lives in Venture, St. John, catching the ‘first bus’ to work for 8 AM; leaving work at 5 PM and having to wait in the Fairchild Street terminal 3 or 4 hours for a Martin’s Bay bus?

    A reliable, efficient transport system contributes to an increase in economic productivity, which could be reasonably measured as the output of goods and services.


  38. @ Imports.

    Skyrocketing inflation has become a major problem across the world. Being a largely import-based economy, the government of Nepal has imposed a ban on ten luxury items till mid-July to minimise rapidly depleting foreign exchange. The ban is applicable on all imported liquors, toys, cars and vans and motorcycles with an engine capacity of more than 250 cc, mobile sets worth more than $600, colour television sets larger than 32 inches, diamond, cigarettes and tobacco products, playing cards, and ready-to-eat snacks.

    According to the statistics given by Nepal Rastra Bank, gross foreign exchange reserves have decreased by 18.5% to $9.58 billion in mid-March 2022 from $11.75 billion in mid-July 2021. The rapid decline in foreign currency has propelled the government to stem the flow of foreign currency draining out of the country.


  39. @ EFFICIENT public transportation system. 🤫

    “A reliable, efficient transport system contributes to an increase in economic productivity, which could be reasonably measured as the output of goods and services.”

    Xxxx

    BDS

    The GDP figure in 2021 was $4,901 million, Barbados is number 159 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries that were publish. The absolute value of GDP in Barbados rose $211 million with respect to 2020. The GDP per capita of Barbados in 2021 was $17,034, $715 higher than in 2020, it was $16,319.

    Barbados Registered Motor Vehicles data is updated yearly, averaging 99.000 Units from Dec 2005 to 2015, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 110.000 Units in 2015. No updated data available.

    GDP in Ethiopia is expected to reach 112.00 USD Billion by the end of 2022, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Ethiopia GDP is projected to trend around 115.00 USD Billion in 2023, according to econometric models.

    The current population of Ethiopia is 121,248,413 as of Sunday, September 18, 2022, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.

    Ethiopia Registered Motor Vehicles data is updated yearly, averaging 132.000 Units from Dec 2005 to 2015, with 11 observations.
    The data reached an all-time high of 155.000 Units in 2015. No updated data available.

    Why the comparisons. Barbados has by far more vehicles excluding those that
    are unregistered in lots for-sale.

    A total fiasco.

  40. African Online Publishing Copyright ⓒ 2022. All Rights Reserved Avatar
    African Online Publishing Copyright ⓒ 2022. All Rights Reserved

    100 YEARS LATER….still 100 YEARS BEHIND…

    “Barbados does not have the necessary legislation to protect its elderly from abuse.”


  41. John

    The island is too sweet for the crooks and schemers.

    It may well have gone over the cliff.

    The IMF don’t matter how many times they run to will always be broke and backward as they scheme to line their pockets and their associates.


  42. If Barbados has alot of vehicles it must have FX access to pay for them.

    How does a car seller generate FX to purchase the cars from over and away?


  43. The majority of vehicles are already landed, foreign exchange exposure is as a result of current imports which is small in the context of the discussion.


  44. @ The GDP figure in 2021 was $4,901 million….

    Kindly explain what the stats you presented have to do with the implementation of a reliable, efficient public transportation system?


  45. The vehicle issue is a 2 sided sword. We have several car rental companies and off shore companies who invest heavily in vehicles as well. In their case the car goes on to earn foreign exchange by being rented to tourist. Also remember the net fx cost of the car is less than half the selling price in many cases. When you back out the vat and duty on the vehicle along with the dealers markup, the net FX cost may surprise you. I think the last time I looked at import figures cars were under 5% of our import bill in terms of fx demand.


  46. John A September 18, 2022 7:17 PM

    John A

    You are correct.

    A used 2019 Suzuki Swift 1.2 XG imported from Japan costs around US$8,389 from some dealerships and retails for approximately BD$41,500.


  47. @ Artax

    Ouch! Cars are definitely a cash cow for government that they can’t afford to lose.


  48. Quite right on the public transport.

    It is currently not fir for purpose. And the route taxis suffer from thug behaviour.

    But I guess with if private vehicles are banned, the measures to ban music and thus behaviour in route taxis will follow. Policed by a special discipline force.

    Without having drivers with multiple traffic offences being allowed to drive.

    I wonder where the additional investment in the Transport Board will come from?


  49. DavidSeptember 18, 2022 6:49 PM

    The majority of vehicles are already landed, foreign exchange exposure is as a result of current imports which is small in the context of the discussion.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    “A car with a typical rate of depreciation loses up to 58% of its initial value after three years, 49% in four years and 40% after five years. Certain vehicle types and models can have close to zero value after 10 to 11 years. That’s why car owners prefer in-demand cars that retain higher resale values.”

    How long does a car last?

    I used to see Fish-tail Cambridges in the 90’s but can’t remember seeing any lately.

    Sometimes I see one old Bedford Truck, a G number, still in operation.

    Probably not many 50’s and 60’s vintage vehicles around except in a few collectors’ hands.

    The more bells and whistles on it the more likely it will break down.

    In Cuba, there are cars that are really old, but they do not have electronics which will only last so long like most come with today.

    Electronics don’t do well in harsh environments.

    So, the $2 billion in FX is depreciating every day and the bulk of it is not earning its way, it is as good as burnt.

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