It’s the Economy Stupid!

Based on the recent IMF visit “at the request of the Government of Barbados, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Bert van Selm conducted a staff visit via videoconferencing from February 7-11, 2022” see IMF Press Release– Barbados received a thumbs up. Here is the summary of the report card. The Prime Minister must have called an early general election to map the longest time frame to execute economic policy, unfortunately with the consecutive 30-0 shellacking of the DLP and third parties, it appears to have derailed the plan because of the retreat to the Courts to rule on the constitutionality of the composition of the Senate. Based on the case management exercise that must be gone through, the substantive hearing will probably not get on the way until March 2022. In the meantime parliament will be in abeyance, or it should be.

Barbados continues to make good progress in implementing its ambitious and comprehensive economic reform program, while expanding critical investments in social protection. All indicative targets for end-December under the EFF were met. International reserves, which reached a low of US$220 million at end-May 2018, increased to US$1.5 billion at the end of 2021. Barbados recorded a small (½ percent of GDP) primary surplus over the first three quarters of FY2021/22, which bodes well for meeting the primary balance target (minus 1 percent of GDP) for the full fiscal year. Preparation of a budget for FY2022/23 is well underway.

IMF Press Release 22/32

The economy should be the focal point of all concerned given the perilous state of affairs made worse by the pandemic. Instead the country is embroiled in another crisis whether created or caused by happenstance. A reminder of that famous James Carver quote – it’s the economy stupid.

136 thoughts on “It’s the Economy Stupid!


  1. Congratulations to our Supreme Leader for this great economic policy! It pays that the noble Prime Minister and nation hero Barrow sent her to study at the LSE.

    I look forward to the next IMF program by 2030.


  2. All.knows it is the economy
    Don’t agree that people are stupid
    The fact being that people are caught between a rock and a hard place
    Having a govt that has turned the Constitution on its head
    A distraction maybe to those whose pockets are lined with money and couldn’t careless about how those at the bottom end find a way to feed their households
    As for the IMF they might be shi..ting bricks wondering how long is it going to take before govt can pass more draconian measures to pay the debt owed


  3. (Quote):
    1:Recapitalization (what will it take?) of NIS fund.
    2: Funding unbridled public sector pension
    (Unquote).
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    And 3: the pending closure of that highly subsidized cane sugar industry for which the IMF has just tolled the bell.

    Sugar production is not a public good.

    No subsidies for commercial industries unless they are forex earning enterprises.


  4. Forget the reserves as a chest thumping occasion as the bulk of that is borrowed fx that has to be repaid. The day they start listing reserves as NET reserves, which is total reserves less borrowed fx to be repaid, then that is just an exercise in futility.

    So the growth ended up being less than 1% with inflation running about 3 times that amount. Wunna can figure that out for yourself. So you working for $1000 a month I give you a $7 raise but the cost of living went up by $21.

    Truth is we have done little to diversify the economy and as a result still are banking on tourism. With Covid body slamming tourism we got what we set ourself up for. As for the IMF being impressed that simply means they are satisfied with the level of hardship inflicted. Simply put the happier they are the more pain you have felt. If you doubt me ask any Jamaican how that all works.

    Long and short we will not get any real growth until we truly diversify this economy and stop talking about it. You do realise all of the promised projects our leaders speak of come from one sector of the economy? Yep the bulk are from tourism, the same tourism covid has slammed for the last 2 years. We really have learnt alot haven’t we?


    • @John A

      Let us not forget who dug the hole we find ourselves. There is always a price to be paid for fiscal/financial indiscipline. We are happy to be addicted to consumption at the household level, successive governments are happy to implement measures to shore up their popularity, overall as a people we haven’t produced leadership required to show the way truth and light.

      The IMF is the consequence of our inaction.


    • @Bush Tea

      A popular refrain posted by members of the BU intelligentsia through the years. Barbadians have become numb to the call. Logically if we do not act, we suffer the consequences.


    • @Bush Tea

      The more the blogmaster absorbs what has been creeping into the Bajan way of thinking and culture, Pacha’s perspective about everything global affects local rings true. There is no more barbadianna, it has been forever penetrated and diluted. We have become clones of foreign; conveyors and purveo of foreign norms and customs. The battle we fight is to slow down the inevitable.


    • To close this point (making it in bite sizes for the partisans) – we have educated a generation of Barbadians we generously described as educated who are happy to actualize by responding to symptoms because tackling the systemic requires too much effort.


  5. And suffering it would be if govt continues to.play the hand of the IMF
    A very good example of the smoke and mirror .policies of this govt
    A govt who has been rewarded by the people for demolishing buildings ..Lego houses..parks..buses..garbage trucks
    However could not find the financial to clean schools that govt purported to be open early feb
    Yet can boast of billions in reserves


  6. We will not know how the economy is going to be managed until we see the administration’s education reform plans.
    However we cut it , slice it and dice it; we cannot seriously restructure or diversify the economy without educating and informing the country, where we intend or want to be in fifty years.
    Presently, we are rehashing old worn out theories, that when carefully examined bear no reality to either ours or the global trends.
    We have to look at what Japan did after World War Two, to understand how an economy should be restructured and reformed not only by economist but in the class room by change agents, who actually had produced models,
    Criticizing Sinckler , Mottley and then recommending the same plans and approach under different names is a useless exercise.
    I can pull a speech Dr. Eric Williams made in 1969, about the future of the Caribbean ,reproduce it here , without stating the date and it will sound exactly as if it was written this morning.
    With @ David’s permission, I will like to publish a part of that speech on BU.


  7. Sometimes when wunna talk.
    Wunna talk as if barbadians should only have a donkey and cart lifestyle
    How can people be expected not improve their standard of living looking outside
    When govts have not put the necessary apparatus and mechanisms in place for the people to look inward
    Yes logic dictates that quality of live is necessary by any means necessary within a legal framework
    When govt can deliver a self sufficient economy built on productivity the bleeding would stop


  8. These small island nations leaders are just empty vessels
    Looking for handouts from outside influencers whose only interest is unto themselves
    Then when.the sh..it hit the fan blame the people
    But question should be asked what vision does these leaders provide
    A Carribbean basin having a vast population of people yet can’t produce a paper clip .a hair pin ..or a rubber band
    Lawd have merci


  9. But then again Homegrown ideas are always rejected for one excuse or other
    Meanwhile foreigners can step in tells govt whatever pleases their interest govt accepts opens the treasury and the rest becomes a wait and see how much of a benefit it would be to Barbados
    The last of which was seen when govt turns to China for Lego houses while govt gave a bogus response one in my view meant Homegrown was not good enough


  10. @ angela cox
    “These small island nations leaders are just empty vessels
    Looking for handouts from outside influencers whose only interest is unto themselves”

    Sadly, you are correct. They are behaving as if they can’t think for themselves. This is the third or fourth trip , we have made to the IMF.
    We came here believing that White Oaks was our savior. We even went so far talking absolute nonsense about how “ quickly” Mottley had borrowed money. Read @ Lorenzo posts from 2018 after elections ; read @ David. They were talking instant yam economics ,completely missing the most important aspect of the IMF program: it was geared to showing results far down the road.(2033) , I think.
    @ David, even said that we could tweat Mottley’s negotiating skills and export them to other countries,
    They will now blame COVID but Mottley saddled the country with high paying consultants; even went back for a complete failure Persuad whom she spent years criticising. What have been the results?
    Mottley has not been able to articulate any real economic plan outside of going to the IMF .
    It’s time she be held to account, the same way we held Sinckler and company to account.
    Almost every day the Minister of Tourism comes with bogus good news and then the hoteliers come the next and completely contradict the nonsense .
    The real truth is that Mottley is “ getting away “ with everything on BU and elsewhere.
    It’s time we start to demand proper governance, like we all did when the DLP was running things.
    Right now our country is stuck in a horrific bad governance fiasco of which Mottley is the root cause. But nobody wants to say it.
    Don’t let anybody shut you up, when you are right ; you are right regardless of whether you are B , D ,APP, Solutions or whatever.


  11. @ David
    Your comments are sobering ..coming from an eternal optimist such as you are, and Pacha’s gift was clear… but the problem can be summarized in MUCH simpler terms – so that even Angie can grasp it…

    1 -the ACTUAL situation that we face is a SPIRITUAL one – we are mere “collaterals”, no matter how important we think that we are…
    2 -Barbados had enjoyed SPECIAL protection for nearly 100 years now, by one side of the spiritual divide…(What would YOU have done if you had a LOVED, adopted son living on the Rock… 🙂 ?) Just check the records…
    3 – BUT We decided that we preferred the ‘ways’ the opposing spiritual side, and we CHOSE to follow those ways – listening to the unnatural deviants who promote alternative ANTI-LIFE philosophies… and who define ‘success’ in ALBINO-CENTRIC terms of money and possessions rather than ‘community-centric’ love and a ‘GOD-centric’ focus.
    4 To CAP IT ALL, Froon went and built that SYMBOLIC temple to the ‘other side’ at the Garrison, complete with the black pitched fork, reinforcing the source of the concept … (even if the builders thereof were ignorant)

    Why do you think the whacker get tek way? …de dog dead boss!!!
    It is only obvious that we are now exposed to the same chaos that we sat here and witnessed around us now for the last 70 years…
    Only we will be worse, cause we have no history of managing such chaos….
    …besides, to whom MUCH was GIVEN,…..

    It will NOT be pretty….


  12. @ David

    Sad truth is the average Bajan has no interest in the economy. Years of free education while teaching them Spanish and other subjects, have failed dismally to enlighten them about the basics of economics. As a result topics like this will struggle to get 50 comments while political ones will see well over a hundred.

    We get what we deserve and have only ourselves to blame.


    • @John A @Bush Tea

      Again sadly this is the blogmaster’s observation. Try raising a topic to do with the economy and see how it goes. The blame culture is real and destructive to having constructive debates. With ease the politicians and talking heads manipulate national conversations at will to benefit those with deep pockets. The same is happening globally with the rise of populism to replace the other extreme. We observe the rise of Boris, Trump, Bolsanaro etal.

      We can teach people the technical but real change comes from a mindset forged by understanding who we were as a people and therefore where we have to go. Our Bajan identity is diluted and a young generation of Barbadian cannot identify with the Barbados many here aspire and dream of. We have travelled this road before.

      #dejavu


  13. @David

    This even spreads to those seeking office. Did you hear any opposition member demand an explanation on how the debt service will be met, or for a detailed plan to be shared for economic diversification in the last elections?

    As I said we get what we deserve and accept


  14. @ John A
    There are no hundred comments on politics. What we have are people who repeat the same thing in defense of their party.
    @ David
    .
    The entrepreneurial spirit among our young people is higher now than it has ever been . This is a point that @Donna makes repeatedly.
    It’s not the people who are lagging . It’s the frigging idiots who have occupied Parliament for the last forty years.
    And what is the economics we are preaching ?


  15. @David
    Weren’t we advised the NIS was to become a SOE?
    I would expect, that public service pensions will be ‘rolled into’ the NIS.
    Likely it will be renamed, some accounting magic will make certain debts and past legal requirements disappear.
    A 4 or 5 letter acronym beginning with B is a fair bet.
    Money required? Print it.


  16. Spending cuts coming, says Stuart
    By Marlon Madden
    With the start of the new fiscal year just over a month away and the Mia Mottley administration expected to introduce a new budget in a matter of weeks, one economist is declaring that there could be some deep cuts to government expenditure as it continues to meet demands under the ambitious Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan.
    Kemar Stuart, Director of Business Development, Finance and Investment at Stuart & Perkins Caribbean, said as preparations are being made for the 2022/2023 financial year, he did not expect any new taxes, but indicated that “increases in current ones are possible”.
    However, he said “The hallmark of the impending budgetary proposals will be the cutting of expenditure as it relates to the wage bill which stands at $808 million, and transfers to government enterprises at $1.16 billion at the end of 2021.
    “These expenses will bear the brunt of the knife coupled with the phasing out of COVID-19-related expenses throughout the financial year,” he said.
    Pointing out that international debt service payments resumed in the latter part of 2022, he also noted that Government will need to prioritize repayments of debt, implement a fiscal rule and return to a 6.5 per cent primary surplus target up from a -1 per cent primary deficit in order to meet the 2035 target of 60 per cent debt to GDP.
    “This is approximately a $500 million adjustment in mainly expenditure cuts and some measures of increased revenue via sales and mergers of government assets and increases in point of sale fees at some government institutions,” said Stuart.
    Highlighting the growing demand on pension, he also indicated that pension reform should feature highly on Government’s agenda in the next fiscal year.
    Stuart’s comments come in light of the February 7 -11 virtual mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Barbados, in which the delegation discussed the implementation of the BERT plan, which is supported by the fund under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement.
    The IMF noted that all indicative targets for the end of December last year under the arrangement were met.
    “Strong steps have been made in implementing structural reforms. The Fair Credit Reporting Act, adopted by Parliament in December, will support financial sector development. The Minister of Finance issued regulations for a procedural fiscal rule in December—a key milestone towards enhancing fiscal sustainability,” the IMF said in its latest report.
    “The Barbados Customs and Excise Department took important steps to improve performance management, risk management, and trade facilitation during 2021. Work has been initiated on reforms to enhance the sustainability of the public sector pension scheme,” it added.
    The IMF team, led by Bert van Selm, further noted that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continued to pose challenges to the island’s tourism recovery.
    Stuart said he suspected a white paper would be brought to Cabinet for discussion on the long-term sustainability of the public service pension scheme and that he expected the IMF to do its own review.
    He predicted that the upcoming estimates and budgetary proposals should highlight where and the extent to which expenditure cuts will be made to “set the tone” for a submergence or emergence of the Barbados economy. marlonmadden@barbadostoday.bb


  17. Wuhlaus! The stopped clock is right this time!

    These leaders refuse to do it themselves, always running around like helpless souls begging and pleading. There is much that we in the Caribbean could do together with Africa as our partners.

    Pachamama seems to think we would not be allowed to succeed but that is yet to be proven.

    We will never know unless we try!

    The entrepreneurial spirit is kicking within our young people. The government is lagging behind.


  18. David,

    Yuh soun’ like my buddy Adrian Green.

    Culture, culture, CULTURE!

    The old folks lived like Bajans. Cou cou and fish with okra sauce with pickled cucumber on the side, washed down with homemade mauby or lemonade ( or lime-ade). Now it is fried chicken and chips, no salad or token salad washed down with Coke or Fanta.

    We did not pass on the good parts of our culture.

    I too like chips but I have my birth certificate to excuse me. And I have also acquired a taste for cou cou and mauby.

    Bajans used to know how to cut the clothes to suit the cloth. How to ride horse if they did not have cow. How to rig up a “Macguyver” special.

    We have to revive that spirit!


  19. John AFebruary 12, 2022 8:23 AM

    @ David

    Sad truth is the average Bajan has no interest in the economy. Years of free education while teaching them Spanish and other subjects, have failed dismally to enlighten them about the basics of economics. As a result topics like this will struggle to get 50 comments while political ones will see well over a hundred.

    We get what we deserve and have only ourselves to blame

    Xxxxxx
    Uh can’t educate people basically on self interest and then expect them to be interested in any thing else
    The bottom line is one of having an educational system that pushes students towards being professionals (and not providing an environment free of stigma geared to workmanship that requires extensive labour and productivity vital to creating growth for an economy
    Removing stigmas such as those placed on low income worker as being stuipd..idiots and uneducated fools in long run pay dividends for an economy as the low end workers begin to feel wanted and motivated to do better and produce and always wantnthe best for the country
    Also the income factor plays a big part to motivate


  20. @David February 11, 2022 5:07 PM
    “The next big issues:
    1. Recapitalization (what will it take?) of NIS fund.
    2: Funding unbridled public sector pension”
    +++++++++++++++
    You are pointing out a couple of the trees but missing the forest.

    The crux of the matter is that both the DLP and the BLP agree with the IMF target of reaching a debt to GDP ratio of 60% by 2035. There are only two levers you can use to achieve this target: pay down debt, or grow GDP.

    The Government has direct control over only one of these levers; the rate at which we pay down the public debt. The Government’s influence over the rate of GDP growth is indirect; things like improving the bureaucracy to increase the ease of doing business. However the Barbados private sector is just as incompetent and corrupt as the public sector, and it is they who are primarily responsible for GDP growth.

    The IMF have estimated that we will achieve average GDP growth of 2.9% between March and 2035. To reach the 60% GDP/Debt ratio will require an average primary surplus of 5.7%; ie the Government will have to restrict it’s program spending to 5.7% less that it collects in taxes and devote that 5.7% to pay down the debt each year. This means very significant cuts in Government spending on public sector salaries, on health care, on education, and on public infrastructure. This means a severe austerity program that lasts for the next three full terms of Government. That is why the January election was called so early… the PM wanted the election behind her before the austerity program began to bite.

    However, there is another lever to use. If we can grow real GDP by over 7% on average each year between now and 2035, we will reach the target Debt/GDP ratio while running an average primary surplus of only 1.5%. This frees up a lot of money for the Government to avoid public sector layoffs as well as health and education cutbacks.

    So we face a choice: severe Government cutbacks and austerity on the one hand, or very aggressive economic growth on the other. Bear in mind that if we choose the road of austerity, the crises in NIS and public sector pension capitalisation will simply get worse, whereas if we achieve aggressive economic growth we will have the latitude to move those problems.

    So there is only one question worth asking. How do we achieve economic growth of 7%+ of GDP consistently between now and 2035.

    If we do not then our children’s prospects in life will be bleak.


  21. @Peter

    Some on the DLP side have been querying the aggressive primary surplus target in light of the squeeze pandemic has exerted on our economy. Given the lack of focus by the DLP on economic matters it is difficult for the blogmaster to discern their up to minute position. The fallen former leader was the main and invisible spokesperson for economic matters, it seems to be young Kemar Stuart filling the role.


  22. @David
    But the only</> way to avoid needing a high primary surplus target is to generate very high economic growth. If we reduce the primary surplus without having very high GDP growth we will simply have to borrow more money and increase public debt.


    • @Peter

      Agree, the economy shrunk by 2 billion from all reports. It is difficult to achieve that growth with current state and at the same time look to development and diversification/strategies with the debt burden.


    • That growth given how the local economy is setup can only come from a rebound in tourism given its significant direct and indirect impact on the economy.


  23. TheO,

    How to ride cow if they did not have horse. Lack of good sleep. Nuff nuff typos, mistakes and omissions today.

    I even managed to make Vincent “cuss” me on the other blog.


  24. @David February 12, 2022 4:15 PM
    “That growth given how the local economy is setup can only come from a rebound in tourism […]”
    ++++++++++++++++
    This is not so!

    I can tell you very clearly how to achieve consistent exceptional growth in the local economy over the next decade.


    • @Peter

      Context, the comment addresses short term growth. What existing sectors do we have to add 50/60% to GDP in current fiscal?


    • @Peter

      To expand, sensible people agree we have to diversify or to better explain stop relying so heavily on tourism.


  25. @ Donna who wrote ” Cou cou and fish with okra sauce ”

    Will give you the opportunity to correct the ” recipe “. lol


  26. @ peterlawrencethompson February 12, 2022 2:57 PM
    (Quote):
    The IMF have estimated that we will achieve average GDP growth of 2.9% between March and 2035. To reach the 60% GDP/Debt ratio will require an average primary surplus of 5.7%; ie the Government will have to restrict it’s program spending to 5.7% less that it collects in taxes and devote that 5.7% to pay down the debt each year. This means very significant cuts in Government spending on public sector salaries, on health care, on education, and on public infrastructure. This means a severe austerity program that lasts for the next three full terms of Government. That is why the January election was called so early… the PM wanted the election behind her before the austerity program began to bite.
    (Unquote).
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    PLT, thanks for your realistic assessment of the health of the Bajan economy.

    At least we are looking into the same crystal ball and reading from the same script of economic forecasting.

    You have certainly confirmed the ‘rationale’ behind the recent political bout of comic relief which has simply resulted in a Monty Python-type end to the general elections.

    Would the pending decisions which have to be made tout suite turn the current administration from hero to zero when compared to Freundel’s scoring of his glorious decade?

    If only the Stuart’s administration had administered that corrective course of medicine from early 2014 the country Barbados would be in much better shape than it is now and would not have to be forced to take the coming bitter IMF pill containing massive social cutbacks and the sacrificing of that economic cow called conspicuous consumption.

    We can only wish and hope there are no outbreak of hostilities in Eastern Europe to put paid to any plans for a major rebound in the Bajan tourism industry heavily dependent of visitors out of the UK and Europe.

    Btw, as news on your front i.r.o the Hyatt project previously touted as the beacon for the local tourism industry and a safe harbour for the local economy?


  27. Hants

    Flying fish have flown into Trini waters.
    Too expensive for many.

    Okra sauce is also a Bajan thing, otherwise known as okra slush. Can be done with salt fish. Had plenty of that growing up.

    Cou cou is also good with pig liver. Had that growing up.

    Good too with curried black belly lamb.


  28. @ peterlawrencethompson February 12, 2022 2:57 PM

    Corona was not an aberration. We had the deep crisis around 1990, then a less severe one around 2000, then a deep crisis again from 2008, then again from 2020. In other words, our economy is on the verge of collapse every 7-8 years. We are now in the fourth IMF programme since 1966 (including the cold programme with the CS loan), a fifth one is coming. Even small children can predict that the sixth and seventh programmes are coming in the next two decades.

    If we really want a rebound, we must not only diversify the economy, but also reduce labour rights and bureaucracy, and reform the currency. We have a welfare state like Norway and a bureaucracy like China, but we are paupers without any foreign cash. My prediction is that without REAL cuts, nothing will EVER change.

    One or two new hotels will never improve the situation. As you all know, I only use the Hyatt for satire. Or does anyone think that I seriously believe in the Hyatt?

    @John A

    You are absolutely right in your observation that the naive masses on BU spend weeks lamenting over some unimportant thing like the rags in the Senate, but that they don’t give a damn about the economy.


  29. @ David February 12, 2022 5:53 PM

    Another option would be to promote tourism CORRECTLY. Our tourism product is tailored to retirees and to the moral Taliban.

    We would have to target what the young like, namely parties, soft drugs, adult entertainment, casinos and the like. But I hardly believe that our naïve, backward population is willing to sacrifice its moral Talibanism for profit. Our low vaccination rate shows very clearly that we are intellectually at least 50 years behind modern countries.


  30. “I can tell you very clearly how to achieve consistent exceptional growth in the local economy over the next decade.”
    And you wouldn’t share that with your buddy GPII, so he could get off the 6yo mare he has been riding.
    Has Mia listened? Or does she block you like GPII reports occurs to him.


  31. @NorthernObserver February 12, 2022 6:53 PM
    “Has Mia listened?”
    +++++++++++++++++++
    I have not yet told the Government. In any case it is the responsibility of the private sector to implement so I am figuring out how to build the right private sector alliances to implement it.


  32. @ Tron February 12, 2022 6:00 PM
    (Quote):
    We would have to target what the young like, namely parties, soft drugs, adult entertainment, casinos and the like. But I hardly believe that our naïve, backward population is willing to sacrifice its moral Talibanism for profit. Our low vaccination rate shows very clearly that we are intellectually at least 50 years behind modern countries.
    (Unquote).
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    So Tron, do you support the miller in calling for the transformation of little England into a mini Amsterdam?

    After all, it was the Dutch, way back in the 17th Century, who gave the fillip to the almost dead sugarcane industry.

    Given that there is no alternative industry in the agricultural sector like the growing of ‘cut’ flowers for export to replace the IMF-certified dead sugar, why not look outside the Society of Bajan hypocrisy to transform the comatose economy by emulating the Amsterdam experiment in order to diversify the one-cylinder-tourism-dependent economy?
    At least there is a little light at the end of the hazy tunnel in the form of a night nurse called Medicinal Mary Jane.


  33. With all due respect to David and Peter, what we have here, are low level crewmen on the upper deck – discussing various scenarios through which the Titanic can be ‘saved’, despite the waves already splashing over the lower decks.

    In the meantime, the Captain and her executive staff are playing musical chairs with senate seats on the top deck, and John is explaining in minute detail, on the ship’s PA system (BU), the structural and design defects that led to the damage to the ship of state.

    Bushie have news fuh all wunna….
    “Look for a life boat…”


  34. IN OTHER WORDS THERE IS A NEED TO READ AND STUDY DANIEL CHAPTER FIVE VERY WELL FOR LIKE GREAT BABYLON THEN, SO IT IS FOR US TODAY I.E => THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL
    BUT THERE IS NO ONE AROUND TO GIVE THE INTERPRETATION…SAD

    25 And this is the writing that was written, Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

    26 This is the interpretation of the thing: Mene; God hath numbered thy kingdom, and finished it.

    27 Tekel; Thou art weighed in the balances, and art found wanting.

    28 Peres; Thy kingdom is divided, and given to the Medes and Persians.


  35. Has Mia listened?
    +++++
    Once bitten twice shy, perhaps PLT is leery of sharing his ideas with the Gov’t since his last brainchild ended up as a Gov’t program with nary an acknowledgement.


  36. @Sarge
    I don’t think so.
    He was clear, GDP growth of that magnitude must come via the private sector.
    And on that, I agree
    The Government is not here to scratch our every itch.


  37. @ David,
    “That growth given how the local economy is setup can only come from a rebound in tourism given its significant direct and indirect impact on the economy.”

    In today’s Nation, there is another alarming story of how Bajan taxi drivers are being unfairly untreated at Bridgetown port. David the cruise ship companies are instructing their passengers to avoid taking journeys with our taxi drivers. Is this legal?

    Imagine you are a cruise ship passenger and before you debark from the ship you are solemnly advised by the ship captain to avoid taking a taxi with the locals on security grounds. It would appear such propaganda is highly effective. How is it possible for the locals to benefit directly or indirectly from tourism when the big boys are doing their maximum to keep ordinary Barbadians out of the financial loop.

    Mia mentioned how she would like to promote village tourism. How will this work when cruise ship passengers are emotionally railroaded or shepherded into avoiding contact with the natives.


  38. “Barbados’ future cannot be based on the construction of the Hyatt, the construction of hotels, or the rebuilding of the stadium. That’s not development. That’s project-based development that is like a match. It burns bright when you strike the match, but afterwards, it burns out. In other words, it creates employment around the project, but it also creates a bit of a crisis in relation to your foreign reserves, because we don’t produce nails, tiles, marble, flooring, or doors. We don’t do any of that. So we get what you call the overheating of the economy. That is feckless growth,” Professor Marshall.


  39. Bargain harder with IMF, urges Marshall

    Government needs to bargain harder with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), says economist Professor Don Marshall.
    “The Government as an immediate priority has to bargain with the Fund for revised target downwards from six per cent. Right now we are running a fiscal deficit of one per cent. I think that is too tight.
    “You can’t hamstring the country in the name of fiscal discipline simply because you want to see the fiscal books look good. The fiscal books can look good but people’s lives can be severely impacted,” Marshall said.
    Marshall, who is the director of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies (SALISES) made those comments recently on Research Day at the Audine Wilkinson Library at the Owen Arthur CARICOM Research Complex, Cave Hill.
    During the interview, he recalled that when the Government entered the IMF programme in 2018, in hopes of reaching the six per cent surplus, thousands of public sector workers were sent home and state-owned enterprises were streamlined. Barbados was set to reach the target just before the COVID-19 pandemic.
    He suggested that attempts to reach that target again could be stressful on the country and civil servants.
    “I cannot believe that civil society has not taken up this issue as the most threatening issue facing who we are as a people. If [diversifying our economy] is the number one thing we are about, we cannot be in a relationship with an agency that tells us future financing from us will depend on you assigning the Government to consign your fiscal targets to six per cent primary surplus,” Marshall said.
    Although crash programmes such as road cleaning and beautification drives and construction projects were necessary, he said they would not be enough.
    “Too many of our people wind up unemployed or scarred by the unemployment experience, so people are working in crash programmes like cleaning and beautifying Barbados and all of that is good. But when I think of it, I realise that can only be short term and necessary.
    Crash programmes
    “If you want to promote long-term structural sustainable employment then we can’t just rely on crash programmes
    where we’re paying people $100 a day. That is going to begin to undermine other things in the economy, other understandings of wages . . . that is producing all kinds of incoherence and resentment. We don’t want that discourse in Barbados that a fellow does not have to spend time in school or doesn’t have to work hard at their vocation, [and] all they must do is know a Member of Parliament or the Government in power and get $100 a day,” he said.
    Marshall maintained not enough was being done to diversify the economy.
    “Barbados’ future cannot be based on the construction of Hyatt, hotels, or the building of the Stadium . . . that is project-based development. That, like a match, burns when you strike the match, but afterwards, it burns out. It creates employment but it creates a crisis in relation to foreign reserves because we don’t produce.
    “If we are not producing to save foreign exchange or save foreign exchange, then we find ourselves always at the mercy of shock and impacts like pandemics,” he added. ( TG)

    Source: Nation


  40. Jordan on the hunt for overseas jobs

    By Tony Best
    The newly re-elected Barbados Government is on the hunt overseas for hundreds, if not thousands of jobs for workers thrust onto the breadline by the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Minister of Labour Colin Jordan said: “We are making a determined effort at home and abroad to implement a jobs initiative designed to open up employment for our people.
    “The initiative involves Government and private sector officials and executives, say in the US and the United Kingdom,” Jordan said while visiting the US.
    Last week, he was expected to meet in Washington with executives of the National Council of Agricultural Employers in face-to-face sessions, making pitches for more Bajans to be recruited to work in different areas of agriculture, especially in the planting and harvesting of food crops.
    “Employment overseas is a long standing tradition for us. It has opened opportunities for our workers who want to support their families and improve their living conditions,” Jordan said.
    “We are meeting with the National Council as well as with officials of the US State Department and other government agencies to discuss this matter. Actually, I am in Washington to speak with agricultural employers at their annual meeting hosted by the National Council. They are discussing issues affecting the farming community and themselves as employers. Countries which want their workers employed in US agriculture have requested an opportunity to speak to the gathered body and in a sense sell themselves as a (labour) supply country in agriculture. Barbados is on that list.
    Opportunities
    “We approached the Council through our consulate-general in Florida, actually through Jackie Martinez (a consular official) in 2021 and we were able to speak about our interests in generating opportunities for about two or three dozen persons getting jobs,” he explained. “The housing arrangements did not work out but we were able to get jobs for about eight workers, which represented a start of an employment programme in the agricultural sector. An invitation was extended to me as minister to speak this year and to be with employers. That’s why I am in the US.
    “The understanding is that we created a favourable impression (last year). Our intention this year is to create another favourable impression and secure more jobs for Barbadians, so that Barbados would be seen as a (labour) supply country,” he said. “We are also going to make individual connections. We will also be meeting with (US government) officials about US visa programmes that could lead to closer collaboration (with Washington) on immigration visas,” he explained.
    In addition to agriculture, jobs in the tourism industry are also earmarked and as many as 104 Barbadians are believed to be employed in the US hospitality sector, most of them in southern states.
    “We are aware of shortages in certain employment areas (in the US job market) and wish to take advantage of opportunities, some of them caused by supply
    chain issues,” said Jordan. “We know there are challenges caused by workforce participation and we believe Barbados is well-positioned to have persons come to the US to work, earn a living and support their families and acquire skills which can be used” once they are back home.
    “They are going to take their skills to the US and learn new skills in the US,” he said. “We are talking about workers being employed in food crops which include small food plants, planting and reaping them,” he said.
    The National Council is the only nationwide organisation in the US that focuses exclusively on agricultural labour issues from the employers’ viewpoint.
    “We represent the interests of agricultural employers – growers, associations and others – whose business interests revolve around labour intensive agriculture,” stated the Council.
    Noel Lynch, Barbados’ top diplomat in the US, said Barbadians have been employed in that country’s agriculture and hospitality sectors for several years.
    “What the administration is doing is paying more careful attention in a more structured way to ensure that we get more of our workers in jobs in these areas,” said Lynch.
    “The Government is seeking to expand on it. What has become apparent is that there are other areas that can be utilised to get Barbadian workers into jobs. In one area, for instance, there is a request generated by Ms Martinez for more than 30 housekeeping staff from Barbados. Barbadian workers have done well when it came to manners, social skills and ability to get the job done,” he added.
    Jordan reported that a new pilot farm workers programme in the UK was working well and might be expanded.

    Source: Nation


  41. @ David,
    Ask BT and The Nation to check their video links. If you try to copy their URL link you are directed towards a Russian link.


  42. Simple question. If Barbados exports its citizens to work in the fields or in agriculture who would be left to manage and work on our fields? I have said it many times, Barbadians have become surplus to requirements within their own country. Who will replace these migrants?

    This is a truly appalling way to treat your own citizens. Imagine your children working in the southern states of America. Should we not be filled with alarm when we hear why Bajans are been targeted to work in the states in areas such as the hospitality industry: “Barbadian workers have done well when it came to manners, social skills and ability to get the job done,”


  43. @MillerFebruary 12, 2022 7:10 PM

    We finally need innovative thinking. A kind of libertarian economic regime, bedded on cannabis and adult entertainment.

    In short: a kind of Augusto Pinochet with a casual cannabis cigar in his hand.


  44. Hard to feel sorry for a people who settles for garbage trucks buses ..parks and food hampers and does nothing to fight for their financial.and economic security
    Meanwhile the top tier gets the best of the best fiancial.and economic basket and security in fiscal hand outs and tax waivers
    Understanding such mentality is beyond any kind of reasoning
    As to this overseas jobs program that has been ongoing it is a reminder of the slave and master mentality only this time written in legal wording and given a go ahead to trade on the open market
    It is beyond comprehension that almost 200 years when slavery was abolished small island leaders still endorsed this idea of sending their people as laborers to countries to be exploitated


  45. Seems kinda stupid that we are sending agricultural workers overseas when there should be much to do here wrt agriculture.

    Why aren’t we pushing our own agriculture?


  46. Lawson,

    We have our pudding and souse, Pig trotters and ears. Nice! Some people pickle chicken feet but I never tried them.

    Is haggis not nice?


  47. In the land of ” la la” 1+1 = 3!

    @ Donna

    We in the UK are all to familiar with food fraud. Aldi and Lidl ( two mega German food retailers) were selling horsemeat in their processed food for years before they were discovered.

    No one on can question your value on BU when it comes to agriculture. Check out the link (part 1 & 2) below if you want to see the horrors of importing food from conglomerates. The GOB is quite happy to ditch the agriculture industry and to allow the rise of megastores such as Massy’s where at least 80% of their food produce or products are imported and are vastly overpriced.

    Food security does not exist in Barbados.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/program/people-power/2022/2/3/food-inglorious-food-part1


  48. @TLSN
    Years ago, Vincentians would come to Barbados to cut cane and Barbadians were going ‘on contract’ to cut canes in Florida.

    If we are unable to attract other Islanders, then (1) the gap between Barbados and those islands may have changed or (2) we no longer have a sugar industry.

    I had a neighbor who went to Florida every year, but never cut canes in Barbados.


  49. Does the Minister of labour investigate the process fully
    Xxx

    They complained of unpaid hours, working under tremendous pressure, with very little water or protection, some fainting and vomiting from the exhaustion. They showed us dire housing conditions and spoke of cases of verbal, physical and even sexual abuse.

    “We hear that migrants come because it’s hard to recruit, because there’s a labour shortage,” says Catherine Laurent, of the French National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA).

    “It’s worth asking ourselves: is it hard to recruit because there’s a labour shortage, or because the conditions these workers have to face are such that it’s practically impossible for locals to accept them?


  50. “I had a neighbor who went to Florida every year, but never cut canes in Barbados.”.

    The gentleman would get a job from the hotel when he was on the island. I do not know what was his thinking, though I have an idea.

    Things are often more complicated than we think they are and at times we take very simple situations and make mountains out of them.
    ——xx—–
    I just realized that I seldom comment on economic matters… Above my paygrade


  51. Yes Siree. It is a tragedy what is unfolding in Barbados to the common man. Exploitation at home and even worse exploitation abroad should he end up in certain occupations. Vigilance is required.

    @ TheOGazerts

    Perhaps our neighbours no longer feel the urge to return to Barbados. Their economies are doing better than ours
    Why travel to Barbados to be exploited when you can stay at home and live a more comfortable life.

    https://www.voice-online.co.uk/news/2021/10/10/strawberry-slavery/


  52. LorenzoFebruary 12, 2022 6:23 PM

    “Well said Skinner including you defending yours pretending to be neutral with no skin in the game.I gone.”

    The same Skinner February 2,2022 7;38 PM :
    ” Mottley enjoys a very stellar political career-she earned it . A remarkable politician by any measure. She has established herself on the global scene; good for the country ; she inherited a dismal economy and so on and although I am not supportive of the IMF, I understand why she did it.
    Now , @ Lorenzo, can you honestly say that I “pretend” to be neutral. I have treated our PM with more respect, than most on this blog. However I will leave it there for now.


  53. We have become a glorious Republic. Yet this government, under this leader, cannot see the irony of been complicit in allowing her citizens to become exploited serfs on foreign soil. They are being encouraged to migrate and to put their well-being at risk.

    Rather than forge a balanced economy which benefits all. We have a government happy to see the back of Barbados chronic unemployed and underemployed citizens relocate to foreign pastures. Long term this will open the doors to other groups.


  54. You do realise Barbados was still a British colony until 1966? My parents who came to the UK prior to independence were not on foreign soil. They moved from little England to Big England.

    What point are you trying to make?


  55. Those who moved to foreign soil on there own that move was not done on the disguise as what govt is doing (now)a govt placing its citizens into hands of modern day slave masters to be exploited
    Lessons learned from the past must be teachers formulating paths for betterment
    David let that digest instead of forming insipid conclusion out a political lens
    As I have said my father went to England because of racist attitudes of that time in his homeland Barbados
    Where the powers at the top made decisions which created an environment of blacks being second class citizens


  56. Where has our national pride gone?

    Bussa indirectly freed the black plantation slaves because the cost of rebellious workers became too high for the British. Today we send plantation slaves overseas.

    Somehow a twisted distribution of roles: in the past, African kings enslaved foreign tribes and sold them to the white slave traders; today, our population is brokered overseas to the plantation.


  57. The initiative involves Government and private sector officials and executives, say in the US and the United Kingdom,” Jordan said while visiting the US.
    Last week, he was expected to meet in Washington with executives of the National Council of Agricultural Employers in face-to-face sessions, making pitches for more Bajans to be recruited to work in different areas of agriculture, especially in the planting and harvesting of food crops.
    “Employment overseas is a long standing tradition for us. It has opened opportunities for our workers who want to support their families and improve their living conditions,”

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS HAVE NO RESPECT FOR THE 2 x 3 ISLAND.

    HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION HAS GONE TO THE DOGS FOR MANY YEARS WHEN ONE CAN BE RECRUITED FOR SLAVE PLANTATION LABOUR ABROAD AND CALL THAT PROGESS.

    THEY ARE MANY SHORTAGES IN THE US FOR HUNDREDS OF THOUSNDS IN THE FOLLOWING FIELDS PAYING MUCH MUCH MORE

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
    NURSING
    ENGINEERS
    TEACHERS
    ACCOUNTING

    HOWEVER IT SEEMS MANY LOCALS ARE HAPPY TO BE RECRUITED AND TREATED LIKE MODERN DAYSLAVES JUST TO TRAVEL ABROAD.

    WHO SAID COMMON SENSE IS COMMON.


    • Don’t you think local professionals are capable of applying for the relevant Visas overseas should they prefer to emigrate? The challenge will always be for countries to find work for unskilled or locals with minimal marketability given scare opportunities.


  58. Don’t you think local professionals are capable of applying for the relevant Visas overseas should they prefer to emigrate? The challenge will always be for countries to find work for unskilled or locals with minimal marketability given scare opportunities.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    DONT YOU THINK IF YOUR BLACK GOVERNMENTS ON THE 2 x 3 ISLAND HAD ANY SENSE OVER THE MANY YEARS THEY WOULD HAVE FUNDED TRADE SCHOOLS PRODUCING MANY THOUSANDS OVER THE YEARS THAT COULD LEAD TO MANY OF THE SAME UNSKILLED YOU TALK ABOUT BEING DEVELOPED IN SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS..

    THESE SHORTAGES YEARLY HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER A LONG TIME IN THE US, CANADA ETC..

    INSTEAD OF TREATING MOST BLACKS ON THE 2 x 3 ISLAND LIKE IDIOTS AND DISPOSABLE FOOLS UNTIL VOTING TIME.

    WHY HAVE MINISTRIES OF EDUCATION AND LABOUR WHO HAVE BOTH SHOWN THEMSELVES TO BE USLESS AND WITH NO VISIONFOR THE LOCAL BLACK MASSES.

    INSTEAD OF ATTEMPTING TO SHIP HUNDREDS OR EVEN THOUSANDS TO DO SLAVE WORK IN ANOTHER COUNTRY.


  59. As usual you avoid the inaccuracy posted in your original comment.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    AND WHAT IS THIS INACURRACY THAT I AVOIDED.

    YOU MAY FEED OTHERS BULLSHIT HOWEVER I WILL NEVER SING IN YOUR CHOIR OF NONSENSE.


  60. It is appalling.that the so-called intellectuals on BU cannot decipher the connection of Black past history slaves and today’s modern day slavery under which blacks are legally provided slave labour jobs by system of govts in foreign countries
    The sad of this begs to ask what kind of mentality would befit a black govt to send it citizens back to.an era now condemned to wrongful actions


  61. t is appalling.that the so-called intellectuals on BU cannot decipher the connection of Black past history slaves and today’s modern day slavery under which blacks are legally provided slave labour jobs by system of govts in foreign countries
    The sad of this begs to ask what kind of mentality would befit a black govt to send it citizens back to.an era now condemned to wrongful actions

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    TENS OF THOUSANDS OF INDIANS GO TO THE USA TO WORK IN HUGE PAYING JOBS EVERY YEAR

    The H-1B visa is a temporary or nonimmigrant U.S. visa that allows U.S. companies to employ foreign nationals with theoretical or technical knowledge in a specialty occupation.

    HOWEVER BLACK FOOLS ARE CONTENT TO WORK LIKE SLAVES IN ARGICULTURAL FIELDS WHERE ANY BRAIN DEAD PERSON CAN WORK SANCTIONED BY THEIR BLACK LEADERS.

    WHERE THERE IS NO VISION THE PEOPLE WILL PERISH.


  62. (Quote):
    Last week, he was expected to meet in Washington with executives of the National Council of Agricultural Employers in face-to-face sessions, making pitches for more Bajans to be recruited to work in different areas of agriculture, especially in the planting and harvesting of food crops.
    “Employment overseas is a long standing tradition for us. It has opened opportunities for our workers who want to support their families and improve their living conditions,”
    (Unquote).
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    But Blogmaster, how does the above plan mesh with ‘his’ administration’s plan to import an additional 80,000 people to keep the Bajan economy viable and the society demographically sustainable in order to keep the NIS alive for the country’s greying dependants?

    Are these ‘readymade-for-export’ unemployed hands going to be sourced from the many blocs of potential unrest across the country which currently make up that employment statistics fudge call the “Voluntary Idle”?

    Who, then, would be left to work on the planned medicinal marijuana plantations to be owned and managed by the expected droves of foreign investors in the Easy & Idle Hall properties?

    That Minister is now cooking with ‘gas’.
    Instead of talking about importing 80,000 to the already overcrowded and economically stunted small island he should be convincing his Cabinet colleagues of the necessity of easing the social pressures of endemic unemployment by exploring all avenues to getting more people of working age to go (work and settle) overseas as has been the trend in the island since the emancipation of the slaves and the pending collapse of its most outstanding icon called the sugar industry.


  63. @MillerFebruary 13, 2022 2:30 PM

    I strongly support our government’s plan to export 80,000 impoverished locals overseas as labour drones. However, it is important to strip them of their citizenship rights after departure, because we do not need poverty immigration back to Barbados.

    In return, our government should invite 80000 rich “New Barbadians”. So that we can stir up our lethargic, unproductive masses a bit.


  64. The plan by this govt to send labour to foreign soil
    Speaks of a govt that has no intent have a Homegrown economic playing field for the unemployed
    In govt simplistic way of thinking it is easier to get rid of that burden that create an environment by which these laborers can find and pursue economic stability at home
    Having said the above then there is no truth as to Mottley statement in unloading mass immigration on the shores of Barbados
    Yet another one of those bold face lies thrown around into the politics of lies and deception by the Supreme Leader


  65. When the oil was flowing Norway invested its profits into a wealth fund. When Concorde was flying into Barbados 3 – 4 times a week and tourism revenue was at an all time high our politicians along with certain members of the business community extracted the wealth from the country.

    Whilst we are now at the beck and call of the IMF. Norway’s wealth fund has just returned the second-highest recorded profit in its history. The numbers are eye boggling.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/norway-wealth-fund-earns-177-bln-2021-2022-01-27/


  66. 7% growth a year every year to 2035 is a tall tall order! Last year we managed less than 1% and every year we slip below the 7%, it means we woulpd need to exceed 7% for the remaining Years to net out at 7% over the entire period. I think we will see some austerity and measures to reign in spending long before we see growth of 7% sadly.


  67. @ Hants @ John A @ Donna @ WURA

    “@ Hants Thanks for sharing : Great potential

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/02/12/guyana-and-barbados-team-up-in-joint-venture-to-develop-sector/

    This is the type of initiative we should welcome and be part of. Very good move on the part of both governments.
    PS: I have noted you( The Above) because you all are of a very small number on BU , who are very positive about building a true Caribbean Nation State.


  68. UK company sees strong economic recovery

    by SHAWN CUMBERBATCH
    shawncumberbatch@nationnews.com

    A FINANCIAL SERVICES company based in Barbados’ main tourism market the United Kingdom (UK) sees a strong economic recovery for this country in 2022, one it says will be built on a recovery in international travel.
    EMFI Analytics Limited, which has operations in London, England, made the prediction in its latest country report on Barbados. It expected Barbados’ economy to grow by what it deemed “a remarkable” 10.6 per cent this year.
    The report was authored by economist Rosamnis Marcano, strategist Matías Bensousan, senior quantitative analyst Gennaro D’angelo Samarin, and quantitative analyst Sheizza Nal.
    They noted that “38 032 tourists visited Barbados in December 2021, a post-COVID-19 high but still just 49 per cent of the pre-pandemic level, meaning that tourism still has plenty of room to grow in 2022”.
    “We believe that this year will be one of strong recovery, even if the number of visitors does not reach pre-pandemic levels, and we expect a GDP growth of 10.6 per cent, a major improvement after growth of just 1.4 per cent in 2021,” they said.
    “However, even such a positive performance would not be enough to offset the massive 17.9 per cent drop that the country suffered in 2020 when the tourism industry collapsed. The main downside risks are associated with new waves of COVID-19 and the outbreak of new variants, which may lead to the reimposition of containment measures and greater restrictions on tourism.”
    EMFI analysts also said that while Barbados’ 1.4 per cent economic growth in 2021 may seem disappointing, “it’s not too bad considering that tourism, which directly contributes around 18 per cent of GDP, underperformed: the country recorded 143 509 tourist arrivals in 2021 versus 195 105 in 2020”.
    They added: “Also, considering that visitor arrivals reached 49 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in December, the highest since the COVID-19 outbreak, and that tourist arrivals in Barbados have been well below the Caribbean average, we believe the sector has room to recover. Therefore, we have high expectations regarding this year’s tourism-led economic growth.”
    Travel restrictions
    The company said in its outlook for Barbados that it did not expect new travel restrictions in the main sources of visitors to Barbados, the United States, and the UK, whose tourist numbers visiting Barbados in 2021 represented just around 25 per cent of 2019 levels.
    “Since the middle of last year, tourists from the UK have increased, particularly since the British government put Barbados on the green travel list; since then, the requirements to travel have been loosened further,” they stated.
    “However, other markets such as Canada and the Caribbean barely accounted for around 13 per cent of arrivals in 2019, due to remaining restrictions, lower travel confidence, and a slow economic recovery, in the case of the Caribbean countries.
    In this sense, there are reasons to propose a conservative scenario, based on the expectation that tourist arrivals will not reach pre-pandemic levels this year.”
    EMFI estimated in its baseline scenario that “tourist visitors to Barbados will average 56 per cent of 2019 levels, with further recovery towards the end of the year closing around 70 per cent of 2019 levels, meaning tourist arrivals will increase 179 per cent compared to 2021, resulting in a remarkable GDP growth of 10.6 per cent, the highest in its modern history”.
    “This growth is tied to a significant rebound in the tourism sector and related productive
    linkages. In that sense, we expect tourism to rebound by around 179 per cent on average over 2021 and 70 per cent on December-on-December. However, this growth is subject to the evolution of the pandemic worldwide and the improvement in the vaccination process on the island,” the report said.
    It added that “higher tourism receipts will turn the current account deficit of 6.1 per cent of GDP in 2021 into a surplus of 0.8 per cent of GDP in 2022. The positive outlook will depend on the course of the pandemic and the avoidance of new travel restrictions in major markets.”
    EMFI also said that “the context of rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions put pressure on domestic prices after inflation accelerated to five per cent in 2021. These risks will remain this year, however, we expect inflationary pressures to ease as the Fed raises interest rates and tightens monetary policy”.
    “Therefore, we believe that inflation in Barbados will slow down to 3.1 per cent, converging towards its longterm rate of 2.5 per cent,” the team of experts said.
    Regarding Government’s financial management, the country report noted that Government “continues to show a strong commitment to fiscal discipline despite the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak, and we believe its primary deficit will narrow to 0.1 per cent in the 2021/2022 fiscal year, meeting the target required by the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of no more than one per cent of GDP”.
    “We also adjusted our overall balance forecast to 4.3 per cent of GDP from 4.7 per cent due to better-than expected results for the first three quarters of the 2021/2022 fiscal year, which saw a deficit of just 2.4 per cent of GDP driven by a five per cent increase in tax revenues compared to the same period of the previous year and lower interest payments than those budgeted,” said Marcano, Bensousan, Samarin, and Nal.
    With Government’s IMF programme scheduled to expire at the end of September, the EMFI team said it believed the Mia Amor Mottley administration “will successfully complete the last review of the IMF agreement in May, and although hitting the targets of the programme has been much harder after the start of the pandemic, Barbados appears to be on the right path of fiscal consolidation”.
    (Taken from this week’s BARBADOS BUSINESS AUTHORITY)

    Source: Nation


  69. The faith factor!

    DOWN TAW nuh brush!
    These were the words that assaulted our Government as an attempt was made to withdraw US dollars from the loan to Barbados of a kindly organisation. It was an attempt to pay for some urgently needed equipment for the country – with foreign exchange.
    The reply from our Government was swift and imperious. “But this is we money.”
    “You mean we reserves.” An attempt was recently made by prominent people to spread the news that the printing press of the Central Bank had been revived and in use again. Perhaps the Government had given this impression by the seeming largesse given to the country of coming to the aid of many people and projects in distress and initiating new projects – the faith factor!
    I believe that the Government has realised that tourism receipts are not generating foreign exchange quickly enough and it has to find money from somewhere. It has taken a reluctant look at the large mass of savings in the country in the banks and credit unions, and wants to find a way of getting its hands on these savings. It will not accept the suggestion of the Wild Coot. That was too crude. (Remember the outcry – “not my savings”). The attempt to change Barbadian habits, however, into a love for Government bonds received a blow also in 2018. The question of printing or not printing now depends on the response to bonds purchasing from the Central Bank. The Central Bank cannot micromanage the commercial banks and tell them to finance projects. The assault on savings in the bank by way of bonds is already onerous to the banks (and provides a risk to the banks as seen in 2018). If only the Barbadian savers would relieve the Central Bank of the bonds issued to generate these expenditures! It is not printing money but it can have the same effect, as money released into the economy when used to purchase foreign items as will happen here.
    But all roads do not lead to Rome. We may still have friends who are prepared to lend us money. We may still have friends both local and foreign who are prepared to roll the dice and take a chance; put up a hotel or two; invest in a new project with foreign or local funds; provide jobs that plough back Barbados dollars into the economy. The faith factor.
    Meanwhile, waiting with panting breath in the wings are the bankers. Looming over their heads the accusation of insufficient risk taking, exorbitant charges, fictitious deductions and efforts to force people to do online banking and ATM use that generate more commissions, positive and negative.
    The banker is now juggling with reduced interest in defaulting mortgages where his interest factor has been reduced and where he had been up against calling in mortgages, worsening the situation
    and creating chaos in the country especially with the hotels and their workers.
    If the banker wants to lend the reduced savings ratio that the Government has left him, he cannot take chances with the lending – neither can he corisk further in collaboration with the Central Bank. So the banker begins negative earnings. These may be expressed by cutting back on service or staff. Each dollar saved can be an increased profit. Bankers sometimes are prepared to take one-eighth or onesixteenth on a transaction. But be careful how you incense the public against the banks. The banks can leave. This has already been happening right here in the Caribbean. CIBC was on the way out in Barbados, and did manage to leave in the other islands. Much inconvenience is being experienced by the closure of branches and ATMs by some banks.
    I maintain that while we can accuse Barbadians of being hesitant to invest, the measure to tap into our propensity to save can be to our advantage. However we shall always be on the brink of the precipice in our dependence on tourism (a faith factor). Tourism can be fickle as we have seen.
    If we are dependent on China to be the lender of foreign exchange for projects, we need to be aware of the track record of China in places like Uganda and Singapore (faith factor). But while being in the bosom of China our appeal to the world for help may be answered for other things such as building an industrial base (foreign exchange and employment).
    Did anyone overhear the conversation between the Chinese leader and our lady? Will Barbados be a hub for the region for manufacturing starting with steel frame housing?
    Maybe this is why an early election was called. A change in direction. The faith factor.
    Harry Russell is a banker. Email quijote70@gmail.com

    Source: Nation


  70. Our Supreme Leader may soon have the solution to all our economic problems. She is currently visiting Prince Ali in Guyana for half a week. Guyana is now the richest country in the two Americas.

    We should urgently take Guyana as a template: A currency devaluation to 1 USD = 200 BBD, 12 hours of work a day and mixing the lethargic local masses with Indian blood.

    Of course, the rich Guyanese will invest in Barbados in the future. I therefore advise all our men to start smearing themselves with Vaseline when they work on the hotel plantation …


  71. @ David

    All above are valid articles. Also if you take the average growth rate for Barbados since independence in 1966 you will see it is no where near 7% as well. Tourism projects will not be forecasted in a board room either, it will all depend on Covid up until such time as a true vaccine is found. These are the facts not the fluff.


  72. @ David

    Growth rate percentage wise reported by the central bank and ministry of finance over the period 1966 to 2021 totalled then divided by 55 to bring it to a annual average.

    We also have to accept what was stated above and that is the appetite for loans now on tourism based ventures is not what it used to be.


    • @John A

      The question is if the economy significantly contracted because of the pandemic now that it is fully reopening the rebound will spike growth number?


  73. @John AFebruary 14, 2022 7:38 AM

    As I diagnosed long ago, Barbados is totally overpopulated, like many other third world countries where, unfortunately, birth control does not work. If we had only 150,000 residents, we would not have to dump the indigenous masses in useless jobs in the administration or in state enterprises. This is nothing other than hidden mass unemployment, like behind the Iron Curtain in the Warsaw Pact.

    We could significantly increase our growth permanently if we export the only resource in abundance: namely, our natives who are dependent on government transfers and are of working age. Our government could collect a recruitment fee for this and would also have to exclude return travel. After all, we don’t want poverty immigration.

    There are many historical models for this. LOL.


  74. David until we accept that a USD saved is a USD earned we will continue to chase the tourism market to our demise. We have learnt nothing from covid clearly.

    Take our fuel import bill and food import bill and start there in a massive push to replace imports with local production. They are both obtainable goals unaffected by covid and global economic issues. They are also both tangible goals that we can control domestically and have both the land area and technology to make it a reality.

    We good at talking but when it come to implementing true change we are piss poor.


  75. “The question is if the economy significantly contracted because of the pandemic now that it is fully reopening the rebound will spike growth number?”

    A fall and rise back to same level will be shown as growth but in real context it is reverting back to the same level as before


  76. TheO,

    You are not steeped in religion. From the very beginning the Bible has set the stage for this war.

    Read Genesis and see!

    Apparently because we supposedly initiated the disobedience our husbands are to rule over us.

    I always found it unfair that one woman should make a mistake and every woman should pay for it.

    So…. I discarded that crap long time.

    If you examine the Old Testament god through a neutral lens you will see that he is the most unjust creature in all creation!

    Some of us are THINKERS and don’t follow irrational religious clap trap.

    The god of the Old Testament is made in the image of MEN, men who want to dominate and keep women in the box that suits THEM.

    I did not start this war but I never back down from a necessary fight.


  77. International travel for tourism in theory should start exceeding pre-pandemic levels as people have not been able to travel abroad on holiday for circa two years and are gagging for sunshine and easy vibes. Destinations have also changed as have peoples tastes. Barbados should cater for the tribes of new age travelers and youths who like to party like it’s 1999 in a dancehall style.


  78. @Tron February 14, 2022 7:49 AM “As I diagnosed long ago, Barbados is totally overpopulated, like many other third world countries where, unfortunately, birth control does not work.”

    Which first world countries Tron?

    Barbados’ birth rate is 1.6 children per woman in her lifetime, the same as that of the Australia, Belgium, Chile, Estonia, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand UK and the USA. Significantly lower than that of Canada, France, Germany rt.?

    Would you like us to kill ourselves instead so that people like you can have beautiful Barbados all to yourselves?


  79. @ Cuhdear Bajan February 14, 2022 12:55 PM

    Frankly, I found the Platinum Coast in February/March 2021 to be the best. I could spend hours on the beach without meeting another soul.

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