An Inconvenient Truth

Submitted by Richard Petko

In the past few days Governor of the Central Bank Cleviston Haynes and economist Jeremy Stephen provided varying opinions on when the local economy will rebound. Whatever the date, it is crystal clear the primary driver of the economy is tourism and until it returns in force, Barbados will be subject to an unsustainable unemployment rate of over 30%. In both cases the opinions assume the revival of tourism is highly dependent on a drop in cases coupled with vaccine rollout. Not to discount these reasons, in my opinion these are not the greatest barrier which will suppress a tourism rebound in Barbados. 

The inconvenient truth is the policy of quarantine on arrival, mandatory testing and a reality of being sent into isolation for 2-3 weeks is the main deterrent preventing the return of tourists.  We have been told that this policy has kept Barbados “safe”. The underlying assumption of this policy being that even one case of Covid is too many. However, the reality is although vaccines are on the horizon there will never be an eradication of Covid, it is endemic. Vaccinated people will catch and spread Covid, as they do Influenza.  Government and tourism leaders need to gaze into the mirror and decide what is a realistic goal with managing Covid? The one case is too many mantra is not sustainable and economically foolhardy. 

Does Barbados plan on quarantining, testing and isolating travellers for the rest of time? If one case of Covid is too many, why is one case of Influenza not too many? Both are considered lethal pathogens to vulnerable people. Regarding tourism, by mid February there will be 200 million or more UK, USA and Canadian residents who will have either had Covid or been immunized. These people will return to travel with the force of a tsunami. During this US Thanksgiving weekend Americans are travelling in record numbers even with dire warnings from their CDC. Tourists will search for warm weather destinations in the USA, Caribbean and Latin America.  

When they search, they will discover Mexico, Colombia, Costa Rica, Florida, Brazil and Jamaica have no Covid entry requirements at all. The rest of the Caribbean has the requirement of a negative PCR test from 3-10 days old depending on country. In fact, the only nations that test tourists on arrival with the threat of isolation are Bermuda, Barbados and Cuba. 

Travellers will have many options, does one believe that your average traveller will choose to get a pre flight PCR test, quarantine for 3 days in Barbados and then take another PCR test, or will he decide to fly to Negril hassle free. Customers will always choose the path of least resistance when all else is equal. When it comes to a 10-day getaway on a beach in Antigua, Cancun, Cartagena or Barbados it is equal, thus the decision making will come down to the Covid hassle/barrier provided by each country.

Air Canada flights already show the effect of Barbados Covid rules. Air Canada has resumed a full schedule of daily flights to Cancun, Puerto Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas, whereas Barbados receives 2 flights a week, reduced from the previous daily flights.

The Barbados government should be transparent and truthful to the citizenry regarding future plans for the management of Covid. If it will be the current zero Covid policy then Bajans can prepare and plan for the economy they currently are surviving in. If changes are being undertaken, they need to be enacted rapidly. Tourist agencies are already stating they are receiving a bonanza of enquiries for early 2021 vacations. I firmly believe without changes Barbados tourism will wallow in its current darkness forever.

136 comments

  • Cuhdear, we are all part of the US we. Why? The US is by far the dominant economy in our region as they go so shall we in Canada and the C’bean. Bajans should be very worried about the upcoming collapse of the Bajan economy.

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  • Moneybrain you were cutting and pasting. be man enough to admit it.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @BAJE

    Not because we have the same pigment. But Mr. Beale spoke truth on every matter.
    As I know a bit about the stock market. I would say that the Barbados exchange should look to be swallowed up by the TSX – Toronto Stock exchange. I say this because allowing Bajan companies to be listed on a world class exchange will allow for Bajan companies to access the massive pools of capital in Canada.
    At the least Barbados Jamaica and Trinidad should amalgamate and create a carib exchange, but frankly I am sure teaming up with Canada is more realistic and definitely provides access to much more capital

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  • Cuhdear, where did I state that I was not doing exactly that? Read it and comprehend the Global Reset. BTW Biden’s Build Back Better are not his words but the Globalist slogan.

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  • GP, U are correct that most Bajans just dont comprehend the critical variables in US politics. Then again many Americans dont understand either.

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  • @Carson c Cadogan
    My apologies cuhdear. I now have noticed I misread who accused me of wanting dead black fold.
    My Long diatribe was aimed at you Carson
    Scrolling through 100 posts got me eyes confused.
    One thing cuhdear when you talk about schools…no they are not open in barbados, in person learning in the government system is 2 days a week. This for an island that is praised for being covid free. I feel this a huge embarrassment for the ministry of education to be doing this and a massive disservice to the children. School is a human right.
    Canada and the UK have in person 5 day a week learning in all their schools. As does france, Spain and any state in the usa without a Democrat governor. If they can do it in the so-called scary covid environment there is no reason Barbados shouldn’t be doing the same.

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  • MONEY BRAIN
    RE GP, U are correct that most Bajans just dont comprehend the critical variables in US politics. Then again many Americans dont understand either.

    MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT MOST OF THESE IDIOTS WHO POST HERE, HAVE RECTAL MUCOSA IN THEIR CRANIA
    CONSEQUENTLY WHEN THEY TRY TO CEREBRATE THEY PRODUCE FAECULENT MATERIAL
    THESE FOLK CANT SEE PAST THEIR TDS AND INTENSE HATRED FOR TRUMP, TO THE SINISTER UNDERGIRDINGS OF THE US SHENANIGANS, NOR CAN THEY UNDERSTAND EVEN WHAT IS HAPENING IN BARBADOS

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  • https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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  • @MB
    See Petko @9:21
    Very interested in your opinion on that item.

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  • @GP
    THESE FOLK CANT SEE PAST THEIR TDS AND INTENSE HATRED FOR TRUMP,
    +++++++++++++++++
    Just like some of you have the same intense hatred for Black O’bama
    and you know what, God works in mysterious ways, he gave O’bama two terms in office and humiliated racist Trump by giving him one term.

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  • The gov of Georgia is a republican
    Not All schools are opened to in person classes
    As far as I know MOST classes Georgia are virtual

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  • John2. Not 3

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  • Ma riposa

    You complain gin about people starving
    Yet u wanta know how much government spending in COVID

    The amount the making from the tourist is covering the amount they are spending on Covid and putting food on a few tables

    Thing is that so far they have thing under control. Let’s hope it remain so , so that a few more can get something to eat and pay their bills

    How much is spent on COVID is not that important at this time

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  • MORE BEDLAM IN THE SOON TO BE BANANA REPUBLIC.

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    IT’S UNFAIR!

    Former workers at the Savannah Beach Hotel are calling on other unemployed tourism workers to rally together and take a stand against what they deem as disrespect and unfair treatment.

    Their appeal followed a near two-hour protest by more than 20 ex-employees in front of the Hastings, Christ Church property yesterday. They complained about the inability to get their severance pay, described it as “unfair”.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/11/28/its-unfair-202011280300419945/

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  • Covid19 has exposed Barbados’s real issues. We have been living as a country on borrowing for decades under both D and B. We need to focus more on earning money for the country. Many government projects designed to make money have failed under both parties because we have civil servants that do not understand the country needs to make money and in fact profit from projects especially projects designed to export ideas, services and products. Too many of our decision making civil servants are all about themselves and what is in it for me. With tourism now stagnant we should have had other exports working for us. By the way tourism when done well is a great export industry.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Richard Petko

    Whey should the Barbados stock exchange be swallowed up by the Canadians? Is Barbados part of Canada? Access to capital is not a good enough reason for local listed companies to be associated with the TSX.
    What we need is proper regulation. The simplest and most important of which is that it should be mandatory that the annual audited figures should be easily accessible, preferably on the home landing page. There is more than can be done.
    As to what was said by Mr Beale, that is not the point. There is a reason why his job is called diplomacy. Truth is no excuse.

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  • @ Richard Petko

    Whey should the Barbados stock exchange be swallowed up by the Canadians? Is Barbados part of Canada? Access to capital is not a good enough reason for local listed companies to be associated with the TSX

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    @ Hal

    I THOUGHT IT IS A GREAT SUGGESTION.

    ONE OF THE BEST I HAVE HEARD ON BU IN A LONG TIME,

    HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH NATIONALISM.

    REGULATION IS NOT GOING TO SOLVE THE MAIN ISSUES WITH BSE.

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  • @ Baje

    It would be better if the stock exchanges in CARICOM – Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Guyana – all operate as a single stock market operating in real time.
    The real issues are the listing rules and wider regulatory framework. We are moving away from colonialism, towards a different kind with Canada. What influence would a Barbados stock exchange have on the management of the TSX?

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  • GP what do you think about this—-https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/former-pfizer-vp-no-need-for-vaccines-the-pandemic-is-effectively-over

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  • @ Hal

    It would be better if the stock exchanges in CARICOM – Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Guyana

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    WE NEED TO LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD.

    ALL THE ABOVE YOU NAMED WERE CATCHING HELL BEFORE PANDEMIC.

    WHILST I MAY AGREE AGRICULTURE AND A FEW OTHER AREAS THE STOCK EXCHANGES IS NOT ONE.

    WE ALSO LIVE IN A GLOBAL WORLD AND ALL DEPEND ON OUTSIDE CAPITAL PRIMARILY FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION.

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  • There is existing regulation to permit cross border trading between the stock exchanges of JA, TT and Barbados.

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  • @ Baje

    I don’t know what you mean by catching hell. Sagicor was listed in London and de-listed. Why? A Jamaica listed bank has just opened a branch in the UK. That tells me that its intentions are honourable (www.JNUK.Com).
    Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. What we need is competence, not some neo-colonial arrangement.

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  • MB
    re GP what do you think about this—-https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/former-pfizer-vp-no-need-for-vaccines-the-pandemic-is-effectively-over

    I THINK THAT THERE IS MUCH MERIT IN WHAT HE HAS SAID
    MANY COMPETENT SCIENTISTS AGREE WITH HIM
    HE CERTAINLY (LIKE MANY OF THE EXPERTS) HAVE GUTS TO GO AGAINST THE OPINIONS OF THE HERD (AND YES PUN INTENDED.)
    THERE ARE ALSO STUDIES THAT DEMONSTRATE THAT MASKS DONT WORK

    BUT THESE THINGS ARE NOT ISSUES THAT CAN BE DISCUSSED WITH THE POLITICAL AND SEMI LITERATE HERDS, HITHER, THITHER AND YON . SUCH FOLK REVEL IN THEIR IGNORANCE AND CAN NOT BE TAUGHT

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  • @ Baje

    I don’t know what you mean by catching hell. Sagicor was listed in London and de-listed. Why? A Jamaica listed bank has just opened a branch in the UK. That tells me that its intentions are honourable (www.JNUK.Com).
    Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. What we need is competence, not some neo-colonial arrangement.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    CATCHING HELL MEANT ECONOMIES WERE NOT DOING WELL.

    ALL YOU HAVE NAMED FOR THE MOST PART MAJOR COMPANIES AND INVESTORS ARE FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION.

    SAGICOR DE-LISTED FROM THE LONDON EXCHANGE IS JUST ONE COMPANY AND LONDON DOESN’T REPRESENT THE WHOLE WORLD,

    FAR FROM IT.

    Like

  • GP, thank you.

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  • @baje @hal
    My suggestion that the BSE be dissolved and teamed up by a larger more capitalized exchange is just that. A suggestion for debate. Being from Canada I suggested the TSX. It could be London exchange, it could be Nasdaq or it could be the Frankfurt Bourse
    Remember the function of a stock exchange is to facilitate the amalgamation and raising of capital from the general population of business and personal investors. It is to provide a measure of value for both new and existing companies. It is to provide a liquid means for the transfer of ownership of a corporation. Lastly it is to provide an effective and efficient mechanism for the people of a nation to invest in the businesses of the nation.
    In a nation of 280,000 the fact is there is not a large pool of capital.
    This charge that teaming up or being affiliated with the Canadian TSX being some sort of move towards colonialism is just folly.
    The fact is partnering with a Canadian or foreign exchange would bring the actual benefits that an exchange is too provide to the people of Barbados
    Listing in Canadian dollars – a hard currency. Foreign investors do not wish to have to change their Euros, CAD or USD to Barbados dollars and buy shares of Bank’s Breweries. A world investor will simply buy Amber, Molson Coors with a hard currency on a world exchange.
    Listing in Canada opens Barbados up to 36 million investors. A pool of capital that is massive
    Listing in Canada opens Barbados to US investors who are very active in the Canadian market.
    Listing in Canada creates sheen of legitimacy to a Bajan company. Knowing that a company, Bajan based or Angolan based (mining companies abound on the TSX) is listed on the TSX gives investors the secure feeling that these companies are operated to a world standard.
    Listing in Canada provides liquidity. Perusing the daily trading of BSE stocks is comical, sort of like watching a soap opera, skip 6 months and the same story is occurring and in the case of the BSE no trading is happening.
    Affiliation with Canada would allow Bajans to invest in Canada in CAD. Obviously this is a big issue in Barbados the land of currency controls. However again one can see it as undemocratic that a Bajan cannot take 20,000 bds and purchase Bell Canada stock and earn a 6% dividend in a 100 year old blue chip company. If anything by creating a special relationship with a foreign market, Barbados would see a much larger inflow of BDS rather than outflow over a span of 5 years.
    Lastly partnering with a foreign exchange ensures access to the best technology available for trading. There are literally 15 companies that offer online trading in Canada, thus democratizing stock access and trading. I have looked into trading stock on the BSE and can say it is nowhere near as simple as opening an etrade account that takes the whole of 15 minutes.
    I have no gain or loss in this discussion. It is just my observation and thoughts. There is much more to this that can be written and maybe I will send the blogmaster a detailed note.
    Unfortunately I can say with certainty there is no way that the BSE provides the functions of what a stock exchange is to be to a nation when compared to the exchanges of the Western World. This is not a knock on the bse or Barbados, I firmly believe there is no way it can do so from a population base of 280,000 with a per capita GDP at 30% of the first World and in a currency controlled environment

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  • Uh-oh! Another rabbit digging in the wrong direction. Chop suey big pot!

    Like

  • @ Richard Petko

    I agree with you that the Barbados stock exchange is a shambles. Whenever I try digging out information on listed companies it can vary from difficult to almost non-existent.
    My suggestion, and it is just a suggestion, is that the CARICOM stock exchanges operate as a single exchange and in real time. In terms of exposing listed companies to capital markets, that is no problem.
    All we need are good listing rules and proper regulation. The listing rules will include the control of individual companies, proper regulation of auditors and timely publishing of audited figures. I would also like to see a public list of shareholders.

    Like

  • GP, one time BU "resident doctor"

    MONEY BRAIN

    A FEW THINGS TO NOTE
    1- ONLY THE REAL EXPERTS UNDERSTANDED WHAT COVID WAS/IS ABOUT
    2- MOST IDIOTS LIKE FALSI DIDNT AND STILL DONT HAVE A CLUE, BECAUSE THE STRAIN OF CORONOVIRUS WAS NEW,
    3 HYDROXYCHLORQUINONE IS VERY EFFICIOUS BECAUSE OF ITS MECHANISM OF ACTION, WHICH IS DISCLOSED IN HARRISON’S TEXT OF MEDICINE FOR YEARS NOW FOR OVERCOMING CORONOVIRUSES
    4 THE VERY SMART DOCTORS WORLDWIDE THUS STARTED TO USE HYDROXYCHLORQUINONE FOR TREATING COVID 19
    5 IT HAS BEEN FOUND EFFICACIOUS IN TREAING COVID 19 ONCE USED EARLY WITH ANTIBOTICS AND ZINC
    6 I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT QUININE IS EFFECTIVE WITH TETRACYCLINE WITH VITAMIN D BOTH FOR TREATMENT AND PROPHYLAXIS
    7 IT HAS ACTUALLY SAVED MANY LIVES IN THE USA, AND MIGHT HAVE SAVED MORE IF THE POLITICIANS DID NOT ADVOCATE AGAINST ITS WIDE SPREAD USE FOR FEAR IT WOULD MAKE TRUMP VICTORIOUS
    8. WITHOUT KNOWING ABOUT THE DISCLOSURE IN HARRISON’S, I LOOKED AT ITS STRUCTURE AND WORKED OUT THAT IT COULD BE EFFECTIVE, BECAUSE OF THE LONE PAIRS OF ELECTRONS IN GROUP 5 ATOMS IN ITS STRUCTURE
    9 I ALSO KNEW IT WAS SAFE BECAUSE IT IS KNOWN TO HAVE A VERY HIGH THERAPEUTIC INDEX
    I O. I HAVE THEREFORE WONDERED ABOUT ALL THE NOISE BY MANY US DOCTORS ON TV
    11 FUNNY ENOUGH A BLACK DR FROM CAMEROON EXPOSED THIER FOLLY FROM HER EXPERIENCE
    12 MANY SINCERE COMPETENT DRS IN THE US AND MANY EPEDIMIOLOGIST DO NOT AGREE WITH DR FALSY, WHO IS A KNOWN FAILURE SINCE HIV/AIDS DAYS IN THE EARL 80’S
    13 THIS THING HAS A BUILT IN ELEMENT OF FEAR IN THE ATEEMPT TO CONTROL PEOPLE FOR A SINISTER PURPOSE, WHICH YOU ALREADY KNOW ABOUT
    BE GOOD MY FRIEND, AND VERY BEST WISHES

    Like

  • @ Baje

    The stock market is not the economy.

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  • Unfortunately I can say with certainty there is no way that the BSE provides the functions of what a stock exchange is to be to a nation when compared to the exchanges of the Western World. This is not a knock on the bse or Barbados, I firmly believe there is no way it can do so from a population base of 280,000 with a per capita GDP at 30% of the first World and in a currency controlled environment

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    @ Hal

    YOU CAN SAY THE ABOVE FOR THE CARIBBEAN AS A WHOLE.

    I HAVE A BUSINESS, AND IN MY PERSONAL TIME BUY AND SELL BOTH SHARES AND BITCOIN ON THE SIDE.

    SO I AM AWARE THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT AN ECONOMY.

    Like

  • https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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  • IT SEEMS THAT DISHONESTY AND INCOMPETENCE IS NOT LIMITED TO ONLY BARBADOS IN THE REGION

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    Trinidad: How the Covid ‘sex party’ case collapsed

    (Trinidad Express) The raid which dominated the headlines on April 10 was described as the first of its kind by the Trinidad and Tobago Police Service (TTPS) during the Covid-19 lockdown.

    https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/11/29/news/regional/trinidad/trinidad-how-the-covid-sex-party-case-collapsed/

    Like

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