The BU intelligentsia has been following the external debt restructure talks with a keen interest. A press release issued late last week confirmed that a deal was reached by the Government of Barbados and the Barbados External Creditor Committee. A good news story.
Unfortunately the press release does not list the finer details of the agreement. We hope the final agreement is completed without event so that the country can settle down to the enormous task ahead.
Here is the press release.
Barbados Agrees On Terms With External Creditor Committee For Restructuring Of U.S. Dollar-Denominated Commercial Debt
The Government of Barbados (the “Government”) and the Barbados
External Creditor Committee (the “Committee”) jointly announced today
that they have reached an agreement in principle to exchange certain of
the Government’s U.S. dollar-denominated debt for new bonds to be
issued by Barbados. This includes Barbados’ 7.8% Fixed Rate Bonds due
2019, 7.25% Notes due 2021, 7.00% Notes due 2022, 6.625% Notes due
2035, and Floating Rate Loan with final maturity in 2019 (together, the
“Eligible Debt”).
The agreement in principle follows extensive discussions between the
Committee and the Government. These discussions have included a
number of meetings between senior governmental officials and
representatives from the four core members of the Committee, which
includes Eaton Vance Management, Greylock Capital Management, LLC,
Teachers Advisors, LLC, and Guyana Bank for Trade and Industry
Limited. Two of the meetings were attended by Prime Minister and
Minister of Finance, the Hon. Mia Amor Mottley.
In reaching an agreement with the Government, the Committee
considered information made public by the Government regarding the
country’s current financial and economic situation. The Committee also
considered the International Monetary Fund’s program and first review of
Barbados.
The agreement in principle includes a reduction of 26.3% in the aggregate
sum of the original principal amount of the debt obligations and past due
and accrued interest as of 1 October 2019.
In addition, the new bonds will have the following key terms:
• A final maturity of 1 October 2029;
• Five year grace period on repayments of original principal;
• A debt management provision through October 2024;
• Equal semi-annual principal amortisations commencing in April
2025 through the remaining term of the bonds;
• A fixed annual coupon of 6.500%;
• A “natural disaster clause” that, subject to certain conditions and
input from holders of the new bonds, will enable the Government
to capitalise interest and defer principal maturities due on the new
bonds for two years in the event that Barbados is adversely affected
by an earthquake, tropical cyclone or rainfall event under its
Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Segregated
Portfolio Company insurance coverage; and
• A clause providing for the reinstatement of forgiven principal and
past due and accrued interest upon the occurrence of a payment
event of default prior to the successful completion of the ongoing
International Monetary Fund program.
The amount of past due and accrued interest as of 1 October 2019 that is not to be cancelled will be treated as follows:
• US$7.5 million to be paid in cash at closing to holders participating
in the exchange (subject to the deduction of the Committee’s
unreimbursed costs and expenses below);
• US$32.5 million paid in the form of PDI bonds with a fixed annual
coupon of 6.500%, with an amortization of US$30.0 million in
October 2020, and a final maturity of February 2021; and
• Balance to be capitalised into the new bonds that will mature in
October 2029.
The Committee’s unreimbursed costs and expenses incurred in
connection with the negotiation and implementation of the restructuring
transaction (US$3 million) will be deducted from the cash payment made
by the Government at closing in relation to past due and accrued interest,
so that these costs and expenses are borne equally and fairly among all
holders.
It is anticipated that the new bonds due 2029 will be issued with an aggregate face value in excess of US$500 million. These bonds have been
structured with eligibility for J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index
(EMBI) inclusion in mind.
The Government expects to launch a parallel exchange offer for certain
U.S. dollar-denominated instruments issued under Barbados law in the
coming weeks, effectively completing the comprehensive restructuring of
the country’s high debt burden, which included the successful closing of
the B$11.9 billion (equivalent to US$5.95 billion) domestic debt
exchange offer in November 2018.
The agreement in principle reached by the parties, and the support of the
members of the Committee for the proposed restructuring, is conditional
on the parties reaching agreement on mutually satisfactory documentation
setting out the detailed terms of the transaction and the new bonds. The
Government and the Committee have agreed to commence work
immediately on, and to work in good faith with their respective advisers
to reach agreement on, mutually acceptable documentation and the
implementation of the proposed transaction. The Government and
Committee members have also agreed to maintain an ongoing dialogue
on economic and financial developments in Barbados following the
conclusion of the proposed transaction which may include a provision of
the new bonds to facilitate bondholder organization and good faith
interaction with Barbados.
The Committee organized in early June 2018 and currently represents
more than half of the Government’s Eligible Debt.
The Government plans to launch the invitations to holders in the coming
weeks to participate in the restructuring.
This communication is not an offer or a solicitation of offers to exchange any securities. The invitations are being made solely by the relevant invitation memoranda that will be distributed in due course. The distribution of materials relating to the invitations, and the transactions contemplated by the invitations, may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. If materials relating to the invitations come into your possession, you are required by the Government of Barbados to inform yourself of and to observe all of these restrictions. The materials relating to the invitations do not constitute, and may not be used in connection with, an offer or solicitation in any place where such exchange offers or solicitations are not permitted by law. The new bonds have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction. The new bonds will be offered in the United States only to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to persons outside the United States in compliance with Regulation S under the Securities Act.
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503 responses to “Barbados Government and External Creditors Announce Agreement”
John A
@ Northern.
Yes I did check and notice performance data had been “censored and removed”
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William Skinner
@ Hal
I understand the property has been sold so the NIS should get back their monies
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NorthernObserver
“for bringing in polo horses with cocaine in their bellies”….there are times when you need to stop and think about the logistics of what you claim. How are such horses transported? What do they cost? Can they ‘swallow’ like a human, or how does the drug get into their belly? How does it get out?
I know, you really don’t care, it’s all about the emotional value and what ‘sounds good’…..lol
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Hal Austin
@ William
That is an enormous assumption. Was there a court order compelling the vendor’s attorney to hand over the money, or does it depend on good will?
“…I would bet money that their portfolio was encouraged by Sinkler to include a sizeable amount of the said paper caught up in the restructuring.
Walter do have a (feel) roughly for what we are talking here dollar wise?..?
heheheheh heheheheh heheheheh
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Enuff
Hal
So a deal is struck in principle and a weak later the nation is addressed. What’s the problem? Stupse. Look there’s no need for the personality focused comments, stick to the subject matter. Not in the mood.
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NorthernObserver
@Hants
Skipper, u went to Kolij.
Here you have a multi millionaire who is otherwise in the construction biz. Imagine the contraband which can be stored in those pieces of large equipment. Even certain materials they may import. And he is going to place coke within his pride and joy, $50,000 and up trained polo ponies? And you post a story about a vet Student who to make some money put liquid heroin in puppies of no specific value?
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WURA-WAR-on-U
Why not take it a little further…a tiefing multimillionaire, who stole black people’s money land and whatever he could tief to call himself a millionaire to begin with. Has strong ties with Argentina…so there are no broken down throw away horses in Argentina where he maybe gets the horses, how will a custom officer know the difference, especially one who is being BRIBED…
yall are pretending to have no imagination at all…ah bet ya if ya dig up some of that land he stole from the elderly ya mght find some skeletons of those same throw away horses..
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WURA-WAR-on-U
Northern…ya must think ya talking to the idiots in parliament, check yaself…you know well enuff how the cocaine will get into and out of the horse’s bellies…better yet…why don’t ya ask…not Edmund..he just croaked.>>but ya can ask Bruce Bailey…am sure ya knock back a glass or two with them TOO….just a matter of time before the VETS talk…
and while ya at it…trying shutting up the english dude who knows all about it, ya know the one yall now calling crazy…
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WURA-WAR-on-U
Right now all i want to know is why the FOWLS are NOT cussing me over on the Rap Brown thread, that is not a lot to ask..lol
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William Skinner
@ Hal
We would hope that’s not the case and the taxpayers get back something . We need to keep our eyes on these issues. According to the blogmaster government is a continuum so we will see what the other half of the Duopoly does. We should also play attention to how the disposal of CLICO assets are handled. Seems like all the corruption and transparency police gone to sleep.
Ah wonder why?
Oh now I know it’s because we now have integrity legislation; freedom of information act and all the former ministers are locked up.
My memory slipping.
Well done. We have been washed in the blood of the lamb.
The Duopoly is indeed a continuum. The blogmaster is correct!
The sale of Clico assets to to fill the shortfall found in the Clico asset register.
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WURA-WAR-on-U
“We would hope that’s not the case and the taxpayers get back something .”
I don’t know how yall missed all of the info in the Sagicor business news MONTHS AGO, but i could swear it has been reported that the pensioner’s money that was funnelled to Apes Hill SCAM…is now only worth 5 MILLION DOLLARS..
that short memory thing is going to cause yall to get ROBBED AGAIN..
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Hal Austin
@ William
The views are irrelevant and unintellectual and are best ignored. How is government a continuum? Governments are not legally bound by the agreements of previous governments; that is our system. In other words, it is only out of courtesy and to prevent chaos that governments honour contracts signed by previous governments, such as bilateral and multilateral agreements. Not e Trump with NATO and NAFTA.
Everything about Clico has been badly handled – by Trinidad, St Lucia, the Bahamas and Guyana, but moreso by Barbados. It is now over ten years since we have had the mess and still not a booby out of CARICOM. In Barbados we are still struggling.
Remember, focus on incompetence, not corruption; administrative incompetence is a MAJOR problem in Barbados, best exposed by its bad financial regulation. Don’t be fooled by the titles and degrees.
After the global financial crisis I had the good fortunes of observing major companies in trouble (ie Northern Rock, Coop Bank, etc) and how they have been resolved. More importantly, I took part in some of the debates surrounding them. It was a learning experience. A proper public debate, not a shouting match, has been missing in Barbados.
Just look at the yaaboo nonsense about Mr Parris and David Thompson and alleged corruption.
I have read where drugs have been transported in horses. They put the drugs by hand into the female horses vaginas (if that is what they are called) and remove them by hand later. A horse is not a woman and I understand some do this with women…..fisting.
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William Skinner
@ David
Do you not find it strange that all the “ corrupt” portfolios that belonged to CLICO have been snapped by reputable companies such as SAGCOR?
Don’t you see the rush to sell off CLICO agricultural holdings while we are being told that we need to revitalize and diversify our struggling agriculture sector?
Don’t you think that a report and transparent public discourse is needed before we dispose of CLICO assets?
Don’t you think that the taxpayers need to benefit from this obvious windfall after being hoodwinked into paying off CLICO investors also known as policy holders?
Have you ever asked yourself why after a decade not a hair on any of CLICO corporate elites heads has been touched ?
Have you abandoned your well known position on transparency?
I ask the question again: why sell the CLICO corporate Centre when government has workers in sick buildings and is about to rent private properties to house workers?
Why rent if you own a building that is already “ fit for purpose” ?
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Walter Blackman
John A
“October 20, 2019 8:30 PM
Well let’s see what White Oak did for their $27M USD in fees. We will break it down in simple bajan terms below.
According to the statement we restructured $500 million USD in debt from an average rate of roughly 7.4 percent a year to 6.5 percent a year so that is 0.9 percent saved or = $4.5 M a year over 7 years or 31.5 M in total interest.”
Vincent Codrington
October 22, 2019 9:38 AM
“Using the coupon rates as John A has done is adequate for purpose.”
John A , and Vincent Codrington,
My apologies for not being able to get back to make this comment earlier. We have some very bright young Barbadians out there, so we have to make sure that we don’t over simplify and leave first year students of financial mathematics laughing at us.
Let us take a look at the bonds that represent the eligible debt again:
A. 7.8% Fixed Rate Bonds due 2019
B. Floating Rate Loan with final maturity in 2019
At October 1, 2019, the present value of the future coupon cash flows on the above two bonds = 0. The bonds have matured!
It is quite possible that the government of Barbados did not have the money to pay the Face Value (we are not given the amount) of these bonds at October 1, 2019 so they issued new bonds.
The issuing of these new bonds would therefore represent additional costs not savings.
However, if the creditors were demanding that the new bonds must be issued with the old coupon rate of 7.8% (Bond A for example) and will mature in 10 years time, and White Oak pushed back and secured a coupon rate of 6.5% instead, then White Oak would have saved Barbadian taxpayers $93,455* on every one million dollars borrowed via this bond, assuming we discount the cash flows at 6.5%.
* Amount of savings = (7.8% – 6.5%) x (1 million dollars) x 10 year immediate annuity factor at 6.5%
= 1.3% x 1,000,000 x 7.18883 = $93,455
C. 7.25% Notes due 2021
D. 7.00% Notes due 2022
Similar analysis can be done on these two bonds. Ordinarily, at October 1, 2019, these bonds only had 2 and 3 years respectively left to maturity. Technically speaking, the additional 8 and 7 years of coupon payments under the new bonds respectively truly represent additional costs and not savings.
Again, assuming an active role played by White Oak in securing a 6.5% rate vs the old rate, Barbadian taxpayers would have saved $53,916 and $35,944 per one million dollars borrowed respectively on Bonds C and D.
E. 6.625% Notes due 2035
The analysis of “savings” on this bond is slightly different.
PV of coupon cash flows under the old bond (6.625% for 16 years, Face Value of 1,000,000)
= 66250 x 9.68593 = $641,693
PV of coupon cash flows under the new bond (6.5% for 10 years, Face Value of 1,000,000)
= 65000 x 7.18883 = $ 467,274
Savings = 641,693 – 467,274 = $174,419 per one million dollars borrowed on bond E.
This is the best attempt that I can come up with, given the data presented.
Clyde Mascoll stated publicly that no one in Barbados can do this work. Based on some of the comments expressed here on BU, I do not agree with him. The best method to determine if Barbadian companies and individuals can undertake any task is to put the project out to tender. It is only after Barbadians have been invited to bid and are “weighed in the balance and found wanting” that foreign companies and individuals should be considered.
That is my view.
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Walter Blackman
Dame Bajans
October 23, 2019 12:31 PM
“If you(Barbados) have to repay $64 million US next year in loans and interest, Mia will need a very, very large gathering. If the same amount or half that is due in 2021, she will need a gathering every year until 2033
Dame Bajans,
We will need at least USD35 million for 2021.
At least 32.5 for coupon payments on the new bond issue maturing in 2029, and the remaining 2.5 million at maturity from the PDI bonds which were issued to cover some of the due and accrued interest at October 1, 2019.
One way or the other, we will have to “cut and contrive”.
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John A
@ Walter.
Your formulas I agree with but as you say with critical information missing go back to my comment to Vincent on October 20th at 10.37 and you will see where I came to the same conclusion as you.
I bet him a drink that after the process is finish we will owe more in principal and interest over the protracted period at 6.5% than we owed prior to the restructuring. He refused to take my back.lol
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Mariposa
Vincent Codrington October 23, 2019 9:29 AM
@ David at 12:36 AM
You may have missed it; but most bloggers are concerned about the endogenous responses to those external factors. The our responses are variables over which we have control
Hell No except for a few whose drinks from the taxpayers trough
Most are concerned about their daily lives existence
Ok to talk about how much interest gonna be paid on bonds an exercise that needs a crystal ball because of the twist and turns in the markets
However even having bonds the average person cannot take that bond at the drop of a hat to pay a bill
People are looking for solutions that would advance their livelihoods to a better quality of life
I have bonds before maturity i have to think about how much penalty and other fees would be taken
Right now most sole purpose is finding a job sufficient and enough to put food on the table and cover all major household expenses
Some body needs to pull Mia aside and asked her if after all the prancing around on World stage did she receive anything that is of quality to help the people
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John A
@ Walter.
Also bear in mind the shorter the period and amounts were to the old due dates, the more those amounts will now cost us over the protracted period at the 6.5%, as the principal would remain but now we have 7 new years of interest added at the 6.5%.
Do you have evidence that the sale of CLICO assets is not been done in a transparent manner? What shapes your view in this case?
Are you not aware taxpayers have had to foot the shortfall by underwriting the cash/bonds issued to former policyholders(Reslife)?
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John A
@ Walter.
You want an eye opener look at just this one scenario.
Assume that of the $500M there was $250M due in the next 2 years with interest at 7.4%, jot dat down.
Now take the same $250M and postpone the payment for 7 years at 6.5% and jot dat down.
Now subtract the old from the new and fire a stiff drink!
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William Skinner
@ David
Exactly the taxpayers took the hit!
I simply said that more public info should be out there. I have warned you not to try putting me in any box.
I have no cocoa in sun so I ain’t looking for rain. I font have any clothes hanging out either. Thank you.
Who is putting you in a box. A question was asked of you, what gives you the impression the sales of clico assets is not being done in a transparent manner.
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SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife
Don’t know a thing about economics nor finance but i haven’t bought any vegetables since late June, and i have enough to last me to the end of the year, maybe down to March. Eating well, a selection of green and red/yellow vegetables carrots, okras, tomatoes, first avocado today, enough left to last until the end of the year, soon sweet potatoes, cassava and yams. Getting plenty of good exercise. Blood pressure and blood sugar good. Plenty of vitimin D too. Bones strong.
Sometimes the boys of BU cuss me and tell me to go back to the field. I have taken their advice, lolll!!!
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Mariposa
Good that some can live on retirement and turn soil.in their back yard for food
However most in modern day society have to work to pay bills and cannot afford the luxury of back yard farming and the cost overuns incuured becasue of high water bill and electric bills
Not to mention tge cost of maintainence to the soil
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Lorenzo
David BU i think by now you know Skinners agenda.All he has done on this topic is to throw about innuendoes which he cannot prove and to play he tough talking about not being afraid of little boys in long pants.Skinner no one is afraid of you neither.David BU asked you a question why don,t you answer and leave out the shite talk.The cue for you is to mention Mr Thompson or any Dem in a negative light and out you , Austin and Mariposa come.Tells us all we need to know.On this topic saw Enuff state Ms Mottley will address the creditors settlement soon take a chill pill.
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Vincent Codrington
Let the horses neigh
And the donkeys bray
For the higher the monkey climbs
The more he exposes his rs.
Can you explain why on a blog of this import we have commenters interjecting with nonsense about smuggling drugs in horse bellies?
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Walter Blackman
John A
October 23, 2019 6:30 PM
“@ Walter.
You want an eye opener look at just this one scenario.
Assume that of the $500M there was $250M due in the next 2 years with interest at 7.4%, jot dat down.
Now take the same $250M and postpone the payment for 7 years at 6.5% and jot dat down.
Now subtract the old from the new and fire a stiff drink!”
John A,
Since we are using the same interest rate to calculate the coupons, and to discount the coupons and principal back to the present, I would expect the discounted cash flows of both bonds to amount to the original 250 million. So the difference between them will be zero!
Mathematically,
PV of cash flows = PV of coupons + PV of Face Amount
=250 x i x (1-v^n)/i + 250 v^n (note that the i cancel out each other)
= 250 – 250v^n + 250v^n
=250
This will always work for any bond with any “n” (number of years to maturity), and any “i” (coupon and discount rate).
Why do you keep thinking the maturity date of the new bonds is 7 years away?
2029 is 10 years in the distance, my friend.
My apologies to BU readers for this highly technical comment, although somebody somewhere in the world might find this helpful, homework wise. You get to see what some of my work entails and I can picture most of you scrolling past and saying “yuck”.
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John A
@ Walter.
Lol yes 10 yrs sorry about that. Where the hell I get 7 yrs from? I must be was thinking how many years i got to wait for pension! 😁
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Vincent Codrington
@ David BU at 7 :44 PM
Have patience,David . In this age of data mining one may discern more than is intended. Your advice is to scroll by. But ,I agree it is distracting and very often exhausting.
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Vincent Codrington
@ John A at 8 :01 PM
10 yrs will give you enough time to procreate future workers who contribute to the pension fund….. the main revenue stream for pension payments.
Stop engaging in ” what if” calculations based on tenuous assumptions. You will have to replicate the exercise if you ever get the actual figures. Please review your notes on “duration”( McCauley etc.)
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john2
Barbados won by having it immediate debt repayments reduced – it lost because it still have to pay back all the debt eventually.
The creditors lost by not getting what was due to them when they expected it – they won in that the will get back all their money and maybe a little more but over a longer period of time.
As Stephen mention, paying the creditors what was due to them (or as close to as possible) is good for Barbados reputation in the future.
As Walter mentioned WE ARE NOT ROBBING THE CREDITORS.
It was A debt RESTRUCTORING exercise.
John A. why do you keep on look to show that Barbados is coming out with the short end of the stick?
You already know that we were not able to pay our debt up front (or we would have)
The creditor took a hit for 18 months.
I see no problem with them getting a little more at the backend of the restructure for the relief Barbados is getting at the front end.
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John A
@ Vincent.
I don’t feel so as I don’t anticipate getting the relevant figures. As for the contribution over the next 10 years, that will depend on an urgent implementation of a growth plan, if not NIS receipts may well fall as a result of further contraction in our economy. Based on these uncertainties i can only look at where we are now.
@ John 2
Why because I pay WO the sum of $27M to save money or are you willing to right their bill off too?
Why is it that as anyone starts to look seriously at numbers the party faithfuls get restless?
This is an exercise we must all learn from. Not only our era but the younger people out there as well. Let us therefore ventilate the issue fully and encourage their participation, or do you think sweeping it under the rug is a better move?
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john2
A few months ago you were calling on government to settle, when conditions/agreement may not have been have been as favorable as they are for us now in the final agreement.
Now that we Barbados) that we have a final/better (than a few months ago) u want to tear holes in it.
If we had settled when you want to you didn’t care about what would have been the value of the NIS bonds back then but now we have settled NIS is going to be a problem.
Cant please the man
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john2
Why when any one don’t agree with you they are consider party faithfuls?
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John A
John2
I wasn’t aware we had an agreement a few months ago, please share the details of that agreement with me. What I can tell you is the full cost of the delay was the first thing the creditors made us pick up hence reducing the actual physical forgiveness considerably. Anyhow Persaud et all will still be paid no problem.
For once put down your party blinkers and look at the facts.
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John A
I been monitor this blog long enough to know the loyalist on both sides of the fence. Surely Lorenzo and Enuf will be out soon too towing the defence line. Lol
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john2
I don’t not agree the fees for WO but they did what they were hired to do – that’s get the some debt repayment from on our shoulders in the now and near future.
What you looking for is a lump sum saving.
Go back and listen to what stephe said carefully. I totally agree with him
paying back all of our debt will be good for us in the future. Creditors will see that even though we hit hard time that we are serious about repaying what we owe.
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John A
My concerns for the NIS have been made public going back to the local restructuring where I said ” the fact that the fund will lose close to 1 billion on their paper is a concern to me.”
When Prime Minister Arthur came a couple weeks later and said he saw the loss to the NIS to exceed a billion he too was dismissed. Time had proven the adjustment will now exceed a billion.
I mentioned on this blog many time. I am not loyal to any party.
But at this time my support is with the government – considering what we went through with the last one and I don’t think any of the third parties are ready.
I don’t hide.
But I have never voted or is a member of any party. I personal have seen 3 bajan politicians in my life but do not have a relation with them. cannot even remember say a word to any of them.
the same way u can exercise your rights to be a “state person” I should be able to express my support for any party I chose to support in anyway. But I have no loyality to any party. if you want to stick to that line than I can say u are a support of the past government.
Now again I am in support of the blp now get over it
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WURA-WAR-on-U
“I mentioned on this blog many time. I am not loyal to any party.”
ya just started, ya will hear that for years to come, the idiocy is REAL…it’s only after 7 years i don’t hear it anymore, except from Grenville, but everyone knows he is soft in the head, so that don’t count.
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john2
John2
I wasn’t aware we had an agreement a few months ago, please share the details of that agreement with me. What I can tell you is the full cost of the delay was the first thing the creditors made us pick up hence reducing the actual physical forgiveness considerably. Anyhow Persaud et all will still be paid no problem.
For once put down your party blinkers and look at the facts.
John
There was no agreement.
Yet you were calling for one without know any details or how they would have affected the NIS if we had settled at that time.
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John A
@John 2
I said a week ago I was glad to see an agreement reached on at least the $500M.
What we have been discussing over the last 2 days though is what the restructuring will now cost us in real terms. As I said a week ago the PM had no option. If you read back my comments you will see I said ” The PM can not be blamed for this it just happened the debt can stopped at her feet.”
What we are attempting to ventilate now is the effect of the restructuring on entities like the NIS. In other words what must we as a people now do to put the fund back on sound footing. What will be required to replenish let’s say the billion lost over the next 10 years while still growing the fund.
So yes one issue will lead to another and to discuss them does not mean criticism. It does however mean that we recognise the side effects and are willing to face them. Remember the approach Sinkler used of kicking the debt can down the road and ignoring the reality proved a dismal failure. Don’t let us today make the same mistake by avoiding the discussions that must follow.
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