Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados economic performance in the first half of 2019 and takes questions from members of the media.
Economic Review of Economy – January to June 2019
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136 responses to “Economic Review of Economy – January to June 2019”
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The central bank report is a nice, glossy presentation. Look forward to some analysis from the BU intelligentsia minus the partisans.
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Today was once again a wonderful day for Barbados. I quote: “the best performance realised in any comparable quarter over the past 30 years”.
Now all we have to do is boost economic growth. I propose the dismissal of 10,000 civil servants so that the state has money again for real investments. Less human capital and better infrastructure.
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Here is the Doing Business Report 2019 compliments of John A.
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I wonder if some here capable of thinking for themself or will drink blindly what they are told.
Let me paraphrase the gloss and shine here for you and bring it to the basics.
The IMF happy as targets met (more taxes on the backs of bajans successfully delivered)
Government revenue up mainly because of their new 8 month land tax year where they charge we 2 land tax bills in 8 months.
The fuel tax collect nuff more than the road tax but you notice no figure was given, it must be was too much to mention.lol
Taxation on the whole up cross the board first six months of this year. Any housewife could of told you that.
Now the part that was “quietly whispered.” ECONOMIC GROWTH ACROSS THE BOARD WAS DOWN 0.25% FOR THE FIRST 6 MONTHS CONFIRMING WHAT SOME OF US HINTED AT. WE ARE NOW IN A RECESSION.
Anyhow don’t mind that the Bajan break, the IMF happy and we collect more taxes in the last quarter than ever before off the backs of the poor tax paying bajans.
Sorry to tell you we have no growth plan as was evident in the contraction of the economy, even though we had higher tourist arrivals. So with all the tourist we get the rest of the economy do so bad, that it right off the tourism gains and we end the first 6 months with a slower economy than last year for the first 6 months of this year. Any shop keeper could of tell you so though.
“Don’t worry though cause we intend to continue with our austerity plans while promoting growth.” Don’t ask me what that mean I ain’t figure it out yet..
Thus ends today’s paraphrase of the central bank half year report in simple bajan English.
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@ John A
We are now OFFICIALLY in a recession. Do you believe the official statistics? Where is the BERT growth going to come from? When are our policymakers and academics going to explain the economy to us?What is the central bank’s methodology? Is it DSGE or DGE or what? We are playing voodoo economics.
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@ Hal
You noticed I say NOW cause I towing the rope the governor now gave me to confirm it. If I said so before i would of been called unpatriotic or something worst
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@ John A
Remember the mindset: think Crop Over; we must play only Bajan music. Take the same mindset to the economy. Only Bajan economists can discuss the Barbados economy. Foreigners not wanted. So, it follows, we are the only ones equipped to explain the Bajan economy. Remember Plato’s Allegory. It is all bogus. But the people buy in to it. It is obeah with a PhD.
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@ Hal.
I got to agree with you because it’s amazing how they dwell on tourism and then slide over other areas with Little discussion at all.
But let’s look at where we are. We are down on last year economy wise which I have been saying for months, but growth will along with a growth plan, depend on the ease of doing business so how we doing there? Crap we worst than last year there too!
So 18 months after elections i got to ask what these 30 really doing? Bert has no growth in it other than growth in taxation. It is harder to do business this year than last year and we are now, according to the governor’s figures in a recession.
Help me understand where the growth plan really is!
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So basically we neither have an economy for growth to take place in based on the half year report from the governor, nor do we have a favourable environment for doing business in, as that also deteriorated based on this last report.
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@ John A
Don’t ask me, ask Prof Persaud. He is the expert. -
David
This analysis and or forecast seem incongruent with what is happening presently in the global environments.
Nearly all European countries are showing near-zero growth or decline. For example, Germany will report next week and we expect GDP growth to be less than one percent or most likely minus one percent. Germany is the industrial centre for Europe.
We need not look at indicators of emerging economies – Argintina, Turkey, Brazil, etc
We have said nearly 18 months ago that there will be a recession by the end of the first quarter of 2020.
More precisely, we expect a deep cyclical recession. Capitalism gives us these cycles every 7 years on average, we’ve had the last one in 2008/9. We are therefore more than 2 years past due.
That delay was only made possible by flooding international banks with near free money.
‘Central banks are literally at the end of their ropes’, on monetary policy. On the fiscal side, there is not much more they can do either. Central banks are on those ropes again.
Cleveston Haynes, seems like a good guy and we know he has a duty to tow the party line, but his story is dated or at least not consistent with the emerging macroeconomic trends.
If we’re right and this recession comes will anybody remember this near-rosy picture painted here today?
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@ Hal
No no he would tell me don’t worry another report not due for 12 months. 😂
I should not laugh but the whole thing really is becoming comical in a bad way .
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@ John A August 10, 2019 3:25 PM
How is the economy supposed to grow if it is raped and strangled by about 30,000 civil servants and many more employees of state enterprises?
But can we blame the government here? Only to a small extent. Read the contributions here carefully, then you will notice that the Marxists and the bureaucrats of the broken, rotten welfare state are in the absolute majority. As soon as you demand moderate, sensible cuts (eg that they work one hour more per week), they cry and talk about slavery. Yes, slavery. I think that is really an insult to history.
I’ll take any bet that the majority of the population would rather re-elect the DLP and inhale shit on the south coast than accept any structural reforms of the welfare state.
The government therefore has little or no room for manoeuvre.
The only possibility would be to suspend the elections for 10 years, to ban demonstrations and to restrict freedom rights in order to carry out the vital reforms against the resistance of an unreasonable population.
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Again I ask where is the opposition spokesman on this? Should he not by now have dissected this report and come to us on it?
You mean we that not getting pay a blind cent must do it here for them?
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@ Tron
Sorry can’t agree with you. We elected 30 who claimed to have the answers they have failed to deliver. The BERT plan never had growth in it as we all said here. The first responsibility this government had was to move urgently on fixing the leaks in the Indirect taxation systems, they didn’t. Instead they left all the revenue to leak from that source and then came with a wash of new tax measures like the massive land tax increase. They did the exact same thing they accused sinkler of doing, they tried to tax their way out of a revenue issue. Let me give you a practical example of this approach.
A supermarket has a theft problem so rather than addressing it they carry up their prices. Less people shop the ” tiefing” continues and business slows more. So what do they do? They increase prices again and leave the theft problem unaddressed so business slows more. Sound familiar?
The civil service may not be at its best but we can’t blame them for failed policies and implementation. The truth is the economic advisors all want sending home!
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I again remind the brains on BU:
IMF operations are declared successful but the patient dies.
Of course the best economic policy with which only the ignorant would disagree is to have no elections for ten years and fire all public servants.
Another brilliant move will be to ban all public comment. These are the measures that all patriotic Barbadians must embrace. To even question the governor’s report is an act of treason against the state. These unpatriotic nit wits should be ashamed of the free education and assistance given to them going back to the years of free khaki.
These uneducated misfits like Hal Austin Pacha and John A cannot even count the contents of a package of soda biscuits but are commenting on the economy. We should have banned them when they attacked Worrell as well. What the hell Pacha knows about the global economy.
Declare a state of emergency and locked them all up. Damn Traitors and misfits. Bun dem! Time to shut down the welfare office too. -
@John A
You too note of the graph which illustrate 12 weeks reserves trend line? This graph and the optimistic comment can only make sense if the agreement with the external creditors is completed.
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David
Also, this bank governor sounds, looks like and using the same lines of arguments as the first governor and every one since.
There is something wrong with that!
Present circumstances require a different language
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@ John A August 10, 2019 4:46 PM
I agree with your assessment of the property tax.
However, I see the situation with the civil servants somewhat differently. We must finally discard the ballast of more than 50 years. Those who are afraid of work or not good enough for the private sector can no longer rely on a stress-free life in the civil service. I am quite sure that with a reduction of 50% or even 70%, the administration will continue to function as it has done so far. You know very well that many ministries are more like sleeping cars than offices where people work.
Barbados has no long-term chance of survival with a spoiled population that always only want to get into the bureaucracy. They scream here on BU and complain about certain contractors, but the masses always wanted to be servants in the administration. Therefore, I blame the problems less on the government than on the people themselves, who want their misfortune as it will come.
I am very sure that the IMF has also advised the government internally to reduce the number of civil servants, but the government has so far rejected this in consideration of the masses’ sense of entitlement. So the best thing would be to suspend the elections for 10 years and to give the island a real cure in order to drive the population out of its foibles.
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@Pacha
Who described the Governor as a creature?
He is not the Fed Chairman.
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A country being run on gimmicky and smoke and mirror policies
The realities on the ground are in total opposite to what this Govenor states
This report is one built upon a Bert program and have said or done nothing which deals with barbados social enviroment and govt abilty to create jobs in the near future
An A+ for the IMF and a D – for the country -
Remind us how the country got here. The people have pay a price by the mismanagement of a few.
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@enuff
Is Jeremy talking foolishness?
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@ David.
Yes i don’t even see the sense of the governor focusing on the reserves and bragging about them being at $1.2B. We have not paid a foreign creditor for 18 months so the reserves must be high. If you bank 18 months salary and don’t pay a bill you bank book wouldn t look good too!
I have to agree with Pacha this whole report was grossly misleading in real terms. Now mind you I don’t blame the governor, he got a job to do. I blame the poor ass opposition for not challenging it and keeping the public informed on our reality.
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@John A
Have you watched Jeremy’s video? He reported foreign exchange reserves fell in real terms between 200 and 300 million.
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Sir William
Wuh wrong man!
Why yuh talking in jest?
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@ Pacha
Ah just trying to understand the deep dangers of excessive kool aid consumption, Suh !
People like you want to destroy this country .Wunnuh had me fool but me eyes open now. Traitors !!! -
@ David.
Yes Jeremy has confirmed what we have been saying here for a while and getting curse for saying it. He made his points in terms all call understand.
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@John A
How he ended the video explains why political and economic expediency will trump any citizen concern. The Blue Horizon will be built how the beach access is managed will be interesting. It will tell how big are Mia’s balls.
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Sir William
We are sure you have one ah dem old time sayings, that would cover this.
The Bajan duopoly has been doing a great job at destroying the country already.
Why would this writer want to reinvent the wheel?
Those who love the duopoly are doing a great job as well, by making sure it continues to destroy Barbados.
All we have to do is ‘nothing’, and our enemies will self-destruct, sooner or later, carrying all of us with them.
The best way to destroy Barbados is to be part of or support duopoly. Ah lie!
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@ David.
The PM will have to decide on that Blue Horizon issue which side of the fence she will stand on.
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@ David August 10, 2019 7:42 PM
“How he ended the video explains why political and economic expediency will trump any citizen concern. The Blue Horizon will be built how the beach access is managed will be interesting. It will tell how big are Mia’s balls.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++What about the Hyatt erection?
Is the Hyatt no longer the ‘hard-seed’ poster boy for the Guv’s pipeline of investment projects?Isn’t this the same guv who, in previous reports, used to wax lyrically about the game-changing economic benefits which would arise from the construction of the Hyatt hotel to rival his ivory tower in Church Village?
Base on Jeremy Stephen’s insightful analysis of the country’s lifeblood, aka foreign reserves, where is the forex coming from to underwrite the construction of these hotels?
From the same foreign lenders whom the Bajan government would like to pretend it has over a barrel labeled: “Persuad’s deal or stuff it”?
The guv’s report is just another cornucopia of politically tainted propaganda copied from his predecessor, ‘full of sound and fury signifying nothing’.
You mean the guy is that meticulously reckless as to boldly omit making a provision against the ‘reported’ foreign reserves to reflect the contingent liabilities arising from the suspension of foreign debt repayments?
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@ Miller.
Omitting the reality was just a technical error one might conclude if naive. The thing is the central bank has to be one of the few institutions that can present financials and not make an allowance for their foreign payables. Can you imagine if a company presented their financials to their shareholders and omitted the liabilities to their foreign suppliers.
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Seems like Jeremy Stephen is another unpatriotic Barbadian. Imagine he talking nonsense about austerity lasting longer and foreign reserves dropping. I can’t believe we educate these frauds. Is this what free education has bred: intellectual frauds. He has to go on the same list as : Hal Austin John A and Pacha! We negotiated the quickest deal with the IMF; the economy looking better lots of green sprouts showing up and he got the nerve to be so negative talking about Brazil and dem places so. He’s an ungrateful brute. But tell he that we gine soon ban all public comment. We gine stop all this five year election cycle crap. We gine straight fuh ten. We gine send home all he civil service friends and turn round this place again because we turn um round about three weeks after we get in already! Jeremy Stephen is another ungrateful intellectual that the tax payers in this welfare state waste duh money pun. But don’t worry we gine soon throw the welfare state in the Careenage. Tek dah Lying Jeremy.
He sound like Pacha. Bun dem.Ah can’t wait till the snow come later in the year and freeze Hal Austin backside. Ah getting sick of all dem . By the way wuh the A stand for John ? I dun guess but……….The Duopoly Rules
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@ William.
You better be careful we don’t track you down and back a septic truck up and offload the contents on you lawn. Lol
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@John A
To be precise the central bank report makes mentions of the outstanding payables but how can there be specifics until an agreement is consummated?
https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2019/08/screenshot-2019-08-10-at-22.29.18.png
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Remember the mindset: think Crop Over; we must play only Bajan music. (Quote)
Why are you such a despicable, lying man?
I can’t remember anybody saying you should only play Bajan music during Crop Over. You are a LIAR.
People said that there is a place for all music and performers during the festival, but the bands should jump to Bajan music. What’s wrong with that?
What about your criticisms of Muslims and Muslim women wearing their head-dress and the new Barbadians as you call them?
As BajanNY would say, you are a bullshiter from the Ivy.
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No growth plan.. No dice
Mia yuh hear dat
Mariposa gonna repeat one more time
No growth plan..No dice
Dont care wuh Lorenzo or Enuff tell you
The realities on the ground says different -
Foreigners not wanted.
Is this the same man who is always criticising Indians and Chinese, who are also foreigners living in Barbados?
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@ John A August 10, 2019 10:04 PM
The figures reported are just a concoction of fudged estimates to reflect the expectations and, in some cases, demands of the political masters of whom the guv is just a robotic “creature”.
The CB has no independence in reporting on the true state of the economy.
Why do you think the previous guv was kicked to the kerb?
He just couldn’t stand it anymore since loosing his extended fascination with the art of Creative Accounting and making up his own unemployment statistics.
We just wish the discredited former guv would be more contrite and come clean by telling the truth about that $300 million in forex which went “missing” just after the 2013 general elections.
Maybe that’s the amount the same ‘vindictive’ guv had set aside as a contingent liability to settle the foreign creditors who are now demanding their pound of Bajan forex flesh.
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@Robert Goren August 10, 2019 10:43 PM
Don’t pay Hal the Bullshitter from the Ivy any attention. BoJo got plans to build more jail capacity to put his sorry ass in and throw away the keys.
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We should all accept that Barbados is a banana republic with only one industry. Our primary objective should therefore be to improve tourism as a product.
My proposals:
Legalization of the use of cannabis for tourists and expats.
Beaches for “topless” and nudists.
Fast lane on the highway for tourists and expats.
Better access to the beach from the roads for everyone (there are also individual tourists in the hinterland).
Shops especially for tourists and expats, where they can shop tax-free for foreign currency.
Relocation of the locals away from the platinum coast to the interior and instead construction of new hotel complexes.
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@ Tron
I really enjoy when the CBG gives these semi annual fits of fantasy “REPORTS” and your tongue in cheek replies, brings out the best in the duploy ostriches.
Blog comments to date are largely in agreement that the economy is not showing any signs of recovery but is falling into RECESSION. Recovery is but a figment of imagination in the minds of the political elite.
Barbados as a COUNTRY is BEGINNING to see the FAILURE OF THE 65 YEAR OLD SOCIAL EXPERIMENT, welcome to the Soviet Union reallity of the 1990’s.
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Don’t pay Hal the Bullshitter from the Ivy any attention. BoJo got plans to build more jail capacity to put his sorry ass in and throw away the keys. (Quote)
Great analysis. Well done. Is this part of Brexit? Is this an original idea or one he got from Trump?
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Here is a govt that prides itself on having foreign reserves after asking the poor and vulnerable to pay govt bills
While the rich reap the sweets in waivers and write offs
Lawd have merci
Btw it would be most interesting to know how much of the 290million dollars have been paid back to the IMF -
Do you understand how the draw downs from the IMF work?
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@ Miller
As a friend of mine likes to say a mix of guestimates and estimates combined.
What should have been done in reporting those reserves is that a provision should have been made for foreign debt repayment hence leaving us with a true picture of net reserves. You know you have not paid the people a blind cent so you bragging about reserves, so what happens now if they demand a lump sum payment on the unpaid 18 month period before offering new terms? You have no provision in place for such an occurance do you.
We fail to realise we have 18 months of liability and growing under the old agreement. You think the lenders will say ” wunna is good people and we like Persaud so forget bout dat.”
This is careless book keeping not to mention grossly misleading that no provision has been made against the reserves for debt repayment.
Anyhow when debt repayment has to be made and that 18 months brought up to date, along with the new payment terms implemented, wunna don’t hollow hard when the reserves get “cat spraddle.”
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@John A
On what basis would the creditors demand 100 of outstanding if it would force the economy to tank?
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