The Barbados economy is estimated to have grown by 0.5 percent in 2015, thanks mainly to a stellar tourism performance. There was a 13 percent increase in airlift from major source markets, an expansion in room stock, and refurbishment of aging hotel plant. The tourism outturn was the best on record since 2007, with activity…
The Barbados economy is estimated to have grown by 0.5 percent in 2015, thanks mainly to a stellar tourism performance. There was a 13 percent increase in airlift from major source markets, an expansion in room stock, and refurbishment of aging hotel plant. The tourism outturn was the best on record since 2007, with activity in the sector rebounding to pre-crisis levels. Tourism receipts grew by an estimated 5 percent, with arrivals up by 14 percent, and all major markets recorded double digit increases.
Should we be concerned that with high growth numbers in tourism we have not seen it translated in the international reserves? To the BU intelligentsia.
@David, this report scares me because it clearly confirms that tourism is the only thing helping our economy to limp along. GDP growth of 0.5% is an improvement on 0.2% in 2014 but is still sluggish, particularly in a context where we are recording strong tourism growth. Construction is down 3%, net Government debt/GDP has increased, the foreign reserves are at a lower level than they were at the same period in 2014, VAT receipts are down, revenues from property taxes are down. Our economic model is completely unsustainable.
One bright spot is that the fiscal deficit is down to 6.8% of GDP which is much lower than it was in 2014 but it is still higher than considered sustainable.
For me it is even more daunting given that global growth is softening with some international experts actually predicting another recession. I am patiently awaiting to hear the analysis of this performance by the experts, hopefully without looking through a partisan prism.
Loading…
SuckaBubby
0.5% growth eh ? I know what we need , AIRBRIDGES!!!!!!
@David, I am now seeing your question above. YES! Declining international reserves in light of a 14% increase in tourism arrivals and with record low oil prices is indeed a cause for concern and debt servicing is a big part of the problem.
Interesting story line, expenditure as a % of GDP.
Loading…
Prodigal Son
I wondered the same thing, David.
Here is the governor boasting that they have had record numbers of tourist arrivals yet with increase numbers in tourism we have not seen it translated in the international reserves.
So with all of this growth, how comes the growth the governor predicted was not realised? And he still touting this .05% growth?
God help us if the price of oil was still $110 per barrel!
Loading…
Heather
This news is not good. The entire economy would have contracted if had it not been for the extreme winter condtions in the US. Based on the Governors calculations for a 1.7% growth on average over the next five years, it is safe to say that the government does not have any major income generations plans for the economy and are most likely keeping a modest forecast in anticipation that Tourism will keep the economy afloat.
Loading…
Prodigal Son
@ David
…..”The reports hints at high debt service cost”.
And we have the acting Minister of Tourism today talking gibberish blaming the BLP for not building air bridges. She said that they are looking to build air bridges and was looking to the Chinese for finance……….more debt piling on.
As I remember when the talk of building air bridges was floating about, the DLP lambasted the government saying that they were not needed. Now this moron comes today to blame the BLP for not building them.
This is going to be a costly exercise. The government will have to practically build a new airport or expand extensively on the eastern end as the present layout would not be feasible.
But I think this all has to do with the fact that Antigua now has air bridges, not sure if St Vincent added some to their new airport……..and the DLP mentality is that the “low islands” cannot be better than Barbados.
Mrs Sandiford………it does not make sense, tourism is seasonal, how many planes are there that cannot find parks at GAIA?
Barbados is broke….why dont you all stop spending? Who are you all leaving this debt to to be repaid? And to think that the pitbull just announced that they are building two desal plants and a new factory.
You all are not learning that you have put Barbados in a debt trap and you need to stop spending money you dont have!
Yet not a cent to build a new hospital (that I would condone) …….when the hospital is in deep trouble!
Loading…
Green Monkey
Why This Slump Has Legs
We’ve only really been in two weeks of trading in the new year, things are looking pretty bad to say the least, so predictably the press are asking -and often answering- questions about when the slump will be over. Rebound, recovery, the usual terminology. When will we get back to growth?
For me personally, but that’s just me, that last question sounds a bit more stupid every single time I hear and read it. Just a bit, but there’s been a lot of those bits, more than I care to remember. Luckily, the answer is easy. The slump will not be over for a very long time, there will be no rebound or recovery, and please stop talking about a return to growth unless you can explain what you want to grow into.
I’m sorry, I know that’s not what you want to hear, but life’s a bitch and so’s the economy. You’ve lived on pink fumes for a long time, most of you for their whole lives, but reality dictates that real ‘growth’ stopped decades ago, and you never figured that out because, and I quote here (see below), you and the world you’re part of became “addicted to borrowing money, spending it, and passing this off as ‘growth’”.
Barbadians should be happy that “The Barbados economy is estimated to have grown by 0.5 percent in 2015, thanks mainly to a stellar tourism performance.”
Let us look at economic growth logically. GDP is the market value of all goods and services a country produces (domestic production) within a given time period, (which is usually ONE YEAR). GDP measures the value of production, which also equals total expenditure on final goods and total income.
Real GDP is used to CALCULATE the economic growth rate. The ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE is the PERCENTAGE CHANGE in the quantity of GOODS and SERVICES PRODUCED from ONE YEAR to the NEXT.
This begs the question: how was such growth measured? Unfortunately, since TOURISM is “SEASONAL” (i.e. December 15 to April 15) and unless Barbados had a “stellar tourism performance” DURING the ENTIRE YEAR, then economic growth will be relative.
I know that some contributors would say that Dr. Worrell is a trained economist with a doctorate and would be quick to dismiss my opinions. However, since he manipulated the unemployment statistics by ignoring the BSS’s unemployment percentages and having the Central Bank compile the UE stats, which were lower than the original findings, I am always cautious in accepting Dr. Worrell’s reports.
Loading…
Artaxerxes
Prodigal Son January 19, 2016 at 9:33 PM #
“As I remember when the talk of building air bridges was floating about, the DLP lambasted the government saying that they were not needed. Now this moron comes today to blame the BLP for not building them.”
Prodigal, don’t let yourself become all worked up. What else did you expect the free loader to say? Over 6,000 public sector employees were retrenched and the likes of her, a three time loser, can get free money in the LARGEST CABINET in the history of Barbados.
The DLP is in election mode.
Loading…
NorthernObserver
So I know the good Doctor has always had a unique sense of fashion, but wtf is that logo on his breast flap? Haven’t seen the latest Star Trek film yet, is this some imitation?
For forex to grow it has to reach here. With packaged vacations or the all inclusives, visitors pay before they arrive, and into where we don’t know. At days end it about consolidations by large organizations.
The continued decline in Corporate taxes is a major concern.
What exactly are “grants to individuals”?
Flat with little wiggle room. If tourism flattens and/or oil rises, watch out.
The Governor is saying we have to sell BNOTLC for 70 million to help sustain the economic performance? It I’d ironic that we are celebrating anemic growth and at the same time the crime number and other social indicators need addressing. How quickly we forget we need to build a society and an economy.
Unfortunately the Governor still has not seen the utility to give the media a chance to ask him questions. One BU question for him though: if we strip away increase global travel and the dip in oil price what significant structural changes have we seen in the local economy? The alternative energy program has come a little unglued given low ROI and bureaucracy at oversight agencies.We need to have good conversation about the economy in Barbados devoid of the political poppycock. Another question: the Chinese just happen to express an interest in financing extensions at the airport when they were here to support another project?
All of the major projects to drive the economy are tourist related, any worries? (Wyndam, Sandals etc)
Alicia Nicholls According to Nation News, Barbados will be undertaking a five-day trade mission to three countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) with the aim to "uncover more opportunities for Barbadian exporters, and further enhance the development of trade relations, joint ventures and other investments which could yield economic gains for Barbados". Nation News reports that […]
Another question for the economist. With Barbados a net importer and therefore should benefit from lowering inflation, how will the unions react in such an environment? It means their members are benefiting read purchasing power without a wage increase. Will the government say it is dangerous to advance increases to the public sector (same for private) based on a volatile situation? Of course the unions will respond that the public service has not had an increase for several years.
Loading…
chad99999
Could we see a better analysis of the root causes of economic growth on this thread? If there is an uptick in tourism, why is it occurring? Who or what caused the changes in supply side factors and demand side factors in that industry?
@Chad99999, the Report states what caused the uptick in tourism growth, namely the 13% increase in airlift and the addition of new hotel rooms i.e. Sandals and room additions/renovations at numerous other hotels.
Loading…
Shaft
I will not argue the toss with this… …except to say it’s not true! We’ve had zero growth since 2008..! Less people (Tourists) are coming to Barbados..! Taxi drivers and other service sectors will tell you..!
Loading…
Shaft
Just to add, Sandals has 60% occupancy..! The other hotels are between 45% and 55% occupancy in “Real Terms..!”
Loading…
chad99999
@caribbeantradelaw Thanks for that. However, does “airlift” mean new or additional airline traffic from (a) charters, (b) regularly scheduled commercial airlines, (c) private aircraft, or whatever? Do we know where these flights are coming from? Is it Canada, the UK, the USA?
@David, I agree with your 5:57am comment lamenting the lack of press conferences. It really denies the Barbadian public the opportunity to get clarity on the real state of the economy.
@Chad99999, you’re most welcome. Re your second question, there have been a number of new chartered and scheduled flights, some of which have started and others which are scheduled to commence this year.
I can’t recall all offhand but they include Avianca (Bogota-Barbados) which commenced in December, as well as Jetblue’s service to Fort Lauderdale to Barbados in April this year. Caribeban Airlines has also increased its flights to Trinidad while LIAT has introduced direct flights. I also understand that Air Canada Rouge will be expanding its service to Barbados from early this year. In regards to cruise calls, I think they had stated 16 new ships are to call at the port for the first time.
In regards to your first question, I am not sure what definition of airlift they are using but I venture to think they mean the number of flights, whether chartered or scheduled. Perhaps someone could shed some light on this.
Loading…
Bush Tea
In an environment where oil has fallen in price by 70%, ANY importing economy that can only manage a marginal ‘growth’ of 1% – in REAL terms, should recognise that its ass is is some SERIOUS trouble.
But for the OPEC strategy of choking the production of high-priced oil by flooding the market, we would have seen a DECLINE of over 5%.
If we were NOT complete brass bowls, we would thank our lucky stars for the break ..and IMMEDIATELY and URGENTLY set about restructuring the damn place to suit our OBVIOUS mauby pockets…
..Get rid of at least six of the jackass ministers we currently have and upgrade public sector management
..IMMEDIATELY institute a salary/wage cut across the board – rather than wait on the INEVITABLE devastating devaluation
..Revise the water rates to reflect the TRUE value of water – to cut wastage rather than invest in EXPENSIVE desal plant to facilitate continued wastage
..Employ a Fine Ants minister who can actually think logically and who understands decimals
.. Find a Leader who can actually speak sensibly, who has an understanding of leadership, and who at least looks human…
Instead all we are hearing is about ‘borrowing more money’ and selling more of our assets…
This is the thinking of confirmed jackasses….
Loading…
Real talk
The private sector makes little contribution to economic growth its all left up to government. Bizzy and Cow are better advised to skip the hollow denials that Barbados is the freest black country on the planet. Its crucial their ilk direct part of the bounty they accumulate from black government and consumers to projects that boost the economy. Riding the back of government sucking the nipples of the treasury until dry do not engender growth.
A caller on Brass-tacks posited Bizzy is not white he is an albino. An albino with a life of comfort in the Freest Black Country on Earth. He is reminded to be humble and consider his plight were he a resident of Uganda or Tanzania. He is a nasty piece of work who should thank God for the unlimited tolerance of blacks who ensure his wealth and freedom of speech in the Freest Black Nation On Earth.
Isn’t the number discrepancy obvious? At least to anyone who drives down Cave Hill often? Cruise ships arrivals are easy to increase, cruise lines are always open to a better deal somewhere else. But cruise passengers spend very little and in Barbados rarely get off the ship. Our cruise terminal is in the middle of an industrial port and Bridegtown (part of a UNESCO site) has very little historical or cultural appeal.
And it would be so easy to fix.
Is it any wonder that Cuba never allowed cruise business? Three million tourists visit Cuba each year, none of which are cruise passengers.
Home-porting? Planes land at GAIA, passengers are ferried to Bridgetown Port and sail off into the sunset without spending a cent here.
Meanwhile the real economy driver foreign investment languishes in civil service ineptitude and blatant ministerial road-blocking.
There will be no economic recovery under Fumble’s Fools.
Loading…
Roverp
This is typical of a country whose tourism leakage rate is approximately 73.5%.
Loading…
Hants
Frustrated Businessman aka Republic my ass wrote,
“Is it any wonder that Cuba never allowed cruise business? Three million tourists visit Cuba each year none of which are cruise passengers”
Noted Hants, hence my past tense. Their change of policy is another nail in our coffin.
Bear in mind there is no tourism vending to speak of in Cuba, tourists there are going mainly for cheap sun/sea/sand all-inclusive resort experience with maybe a one-day tour from resort to Havana. Whether the cruise liners unload in Cuba or not will make little difference to an economy that has nothing to sell them.
Our situation is quite the opposite. The huge efforts that were made decades ago to create an excellent duty-free shopping system and the excellent beach-bar infrastructure for cruise passenger enjoyment, along with the taxis to get tourists to both, are the plants that have been suffering for years. Cruise ships get bigger and cheaper while cruise passengers spend less because they have less.
Cruise liners are not Barbados’ tourism answer.
Loading…
Artaxerxes
caribbeantradelaw January 20, 2016 at 7:04 AM #
“@Chad99999, the Report states what caused the uptick in tourism growth, namely the 13% increase in airlift and the addition of new hotel rooms i.e. Sandals and room additions/renovations at numerous other hotels.”
@ David January 20, 2016 at 9:52 AM
“What you forgot to mention is the fall in foreign reserves of 50 million at a time when we saved 380 million as a result of falling oil price.”
For some time now you have been made aware of this scenario leading to the perfect conditions for a devaluation of the mickey-mouse money called the Barbados dollar. The next move will be the wholesale sell off on the country’s infrastructural assets mainly the GAIA to foreign interests purely to feed the behemoth of conspicuous consumption of imported food and luxuries and trinkets.
Just remember the foreign reserves figure published by the Governor is made up of non-cash assets and SDR’s. Not all the foreign reserves is available to meet suppliers’ invoices, far less cover the piling up of applications for management fees and profit remittances as foreign-owned companies get nervous and seek to reduce their exposure to an increasingly risky Barbados.
Would this pending forex apocalypse force the P M to adopt the discredited Estwick Middle East bailout plan? Or is an ‘official’ IMF restructuring programme his Hobson’s choice for the next BLP administration to deal with?
BTW, what has become of the once highly promoted Sugar Point Cruise Terminal project that was earmarked by the same quack doctor for a CB Governor to kick-start growth in 2014?
Has that now been morphed into additional berthing space for cruise ships in the existing port?
How come he is no longer crowing the benefits that were supposed flow from the Four Seasons restart that was heralded as the investment petrol for the one-cylinder economy?
Loading…
Kevin
This is very disappointing. I was hoping for like a 1 or 2 percent growth. Well least we are still ‘stable’.
Loading…
Prodigal Son
You are disappointed? When we were telling you that economy was not growing and that the governor was manipulating figures to make the DLP government look good, we were branded as doom and gloomers.
The fact is the economy has been on skid row for the longest while and neither the governor or the Stinkliar has a clue of what next to do.
Loading…
Hants
The saviors of Barbados are lining up……
“SELF-PROCLAIMED ACTIVIST Rommel Marshall is champing at the bit at what seems like a potential opportunity to represent the St Michael West Central constituency once again”-
“From all indications, Dr William Duguid is jumping back into the political fray and he is going after his old seat “
Loading…
Prodigal Son
Something is very wrong with this picture ……….the oil bill was $380 million less yet the foreign reserves fell by 97 million (some say 50 million), there was a 13% increase in airlift and yet the governor could not realise the 2% growth he predicted?
I have already mentioned on BU that I was told from a source inside the CBB that when the officials present the real statistics….the governor takes a look and if they are not what he wants……he allegedly says…….you expect me to go to the public with these………bring me figures that I can work with. This is believable because we can read the report and know that the figures are manipulated to paint a rosy picture.
Oh betide Barbados when the truth finally comes out. There is very little left for Stinkliar to tax to bring in more taxes and they have refused to cut their spending.
It is obvious that without a total break from the current economic model, we would continue to flounder. What we have is an mirage. Furthermore , the world economy will be in the doldrums during 2016. The simple truth is that under the current model, and the almost total dependency on the tourist dollar, we could not seriously expect anything different. This has nothing to do with party because both parties follow the identical model. We need to study the works of the late Lloyd Best of Trinidad and Tobago for guidance.
Loading…
Prodigal Son
Hants,
Rommel Marshall is a jackass of the highest order.
As far as I know from reading the Nation, Ian Gooding Edghill was nominated to run in this constituency about two years now. I read that when the jackass turned up to the meeting, he was booed, was called a traitor and the people wanted him to leave but Jerome Walcott calmed them down saying that he had apologised to the party for his actions and should be forgiven.
I have not heard that Gooding Edghill has given up the nomination. Marshall is a has been and should crawl back under the hole he just come from. He has nothing to offer Barbados.
Loading…
Peltdownman
Alicia Nicholls According to Nation News, Barbados will be undertaking a five-day trade mission to three countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) with the aim to “uncover more opportunities for Barbadian exporters, and further enhance the development of trade relations, joint ventures and other investments which could yield economic gains for Barbados”. Nation News reports that […]
Yes, but I hear that this trade mission was supposed to take place last year, at a time when buyers would have been more receptive. But what happened was that “the Minister couldn’t make it”, so the whole mission was postponed. Anywhere else, that would be called “the tail wagging the dog!”
Loading…
Gabriel
Prodigal and Arta
Reference the garbage of deceit and misinformation of Irene the hoe and sickle barmaid,she should go speak with Keith ‘Jolla’ Barrow and Lionel ‘I cum from Likrish village’Weekes,two notorious Fatted Calf dems;they would tell the barmaid that what is called terminal 1 was designed and built by the DLP government of Errol Barrow and overseen by Barrow who was an engineer assisting Matthews the project manager.The stakeholders queried the absence of bridges and were told that these were not included in the design because of the cost and because it was felt an unnecessary expense.The figure I am told was $90,000.00 each.I recall reading the total cost of the project was BD$27million and that was when the project started in the early 70’s.
Loading…
Fractured BLP
Well kudos to the Governor of the CBB and team DLP.
Some growth in the Barbados economy….GREAT.
As our wise foreparents taught us, ‘ A little with content, is great gain’
Leh Prodigirl……
deal with that FACT!
Loading…
Hants
Banks…ah!!! thanks! ..for the memory…….“My Barbados, My Banks”, ……no mas….but life nice.
Loading…
Hants
@ David, do you think the plight of Trevor Eastmond is worth a blog on BU?
” each hour he has to concentrate his energy on fighting the pain that attacks his body as he is now into his eighth year of waiting for surgery at the QEH to replace both hips
@David, you are right. The last statistics I saw showed a decline in Brazilian arrivals. Recall though that Brazil is currently in the midst of economic turbulence so perhaps that may account for some of the decline.
@Peltdown, thanks for the insight.
Loading…
Prodigal Son
That Brazil experiment was a dud from the start.
These morons we have for a government guaranteed GOL payment for a certain amount of seats for every plane….result……what incentive did GOL have to break their backs to fill the seats…………….and so the planes were never full and who picked up the slack………….we the suckers for taxpayers.
This is the growth of which the DLP brags!
Loading…
Prodigal Son
Gabriel
This government continues to spend money with gay abandon.
I would not even mind if they were spending wisely. The PM was on DLPTV over the weekend justifying the money they are spending to celebrate 50 years. Yet we have a hospital on its knees crying out for help.
A friend of mine had to be rushed there recently and the family was appalled at the condition of the place. The A&E was overcrowded, a man said he was there for over 24 hours and still was not seen.
The doctors are trying their best but they are overwhelmed. They are also demoralized as well. A young relative of mine is working in the system since he qualified and the poor guy is being sent from Polyclinic to hospital, from hospital to Polyclinic and not a cent in salary since the end of October. He said you have to work so hard and then you have to be begging to be paid.
Yet we still have the largest cabinet ever, many of them a waste of time……..like Jepter Ince, Harry Husbands, Patrick Todd, Irene Sandiford Garner, Quisling Boyce, Steve Blackett, Dennis Lowe, Dennis Kellman, Maxine McClean Esther Byer, Freundel Staurt and the rest of dem!
I would really like to hear what this so called co chair of the wasting money for 50th anniversary have to say about the hospital now. I well remember her pulling down the QEH during the BLP years when she said on Tell It Like It Is that a family member came back to Barbados years after her brother Wendell’s death and lamented that the QEH was in worse state than when Wendell was there.
Well, Madam”I dont have anything to say to the Nation”, what do you have to say on the condition of QEH now…..8 years under the DLP?
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.