Submitted by Yardbroom

Kim Jong-Il’s Government of North Korea has warned America, that if any of its vessels were intercepted as part of a US-led initiative to search ships for nuclear materials, it will launch an attack on South Korea.  This was a direct response to South Korea joining the Proliferation Security Initiative an American-led campaign to search ships carrying suspicious cargoes.  As if to ratchet up the temperature US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned North Korea, over its “provocative and belligerent” threats.

The US Government knows that a military threat from North Korea cannot be taken lightly, provocative and belligerent it might be, but North Korea has about a million men in uniform and only last week it exploded a nuclear bomb the size of the one dropped on Hiroshima, in addition to firing six short-range missiles.  Confrontation with North Korea will not be like an escapade in Iraq, if the history of the Korean war is used as a guide.

The Korean war lasted from the 25th June 1950 until the Armistice on 27th July 1953.  The North had invaded the South and it was under the United Nations, nations allied with the United States intervened on behalf of South Korea and was able to push back the North Koreans.  Then the North with allied  Chinese forces were able the halt the South Korean advance.

On the 27th May 2009 North Korea have unilaterally withdrawn from the armistice. We are aware of President Obama’s foreign policy initiatives in Iraq, Afghanistan and his commitment to Pakistan in riding the Swat Valley of the Taliban.  However, as important as those foreign policy initiatives are, I believe the one most likely to go pear-shaped in a short time frame is North Korea, with catastrophic consequences.

North Korea’s neighbour China has some influence on North Korea but Kim Jong Il’s secretive regime will not be pushed around by anyone, even a super power.  It is rumoured that Kim Jong Il is in poor health and his belligerence is more to do with internal politics and succession, than in taking on South Korea  the US and its allies.  It has even been said his military posturing is for oil and aid, but we cannot be certain.

Even if there is some truth in those rumours, the South Koreans and the Japanese will not rest easy in their beds.  This will be a stern test for President Obama, it will require statesmanship of the highest order coupled with firm diplomacy, of a kind to keep important players on board.

This confrontation could be one of the greatest since the John.F. Kennedy Nikita Khrushchev stand off over the Cuba Missile crisis in 1962. The unpredictability of Kim Jong-Il and the nuclear component in his arsenal underlines the seriousness of this matter.

Most political commentators are looking away towards Pakistan and the Taliban but “we should keep our eyes on the ball in North Korea” it is there matters can quickly go awry and where President Obama might have his first real baptism of fire.