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AND JESUS WENT OUT, and His disciples, to the towns of Caesarea Philippi; and He asked them: “Whom do men say that I am?” Nowadays, of course, Jesus would simply have checked the blogs to find the answer to that question. The blogs are scary. You go there for the lowdown on Kingsland or the split in the party only to find your name knocking dog and anonymous people discussing you like if you are somebody.

Lowdown’s Article

Our favourite Nation columnist Richard ‘Dick’ Hoad decided to join the crowd and ‘pic-pun’ the blogs today. He claims that the blogs ‘scandalizing’ his name. He went so far as to flirt with being blasphemous by suggesting that if Jesus Christ were alive he would check the blogs for feedback and ignore his trusted disciples.

Man Lowdown you too funny!

He seems to have a beef about anonymous people being able to visit the blogs and ‘air’ people business in the virtual world of the Internet. The BU household has a message for Lowdown. It takes ‘balls’ or should we say a ‘dick’ to use ones baptized name in a place like Bimshire. Of course because Lowdown is a ‘Dick’ he has the ‘balls’ to do his thing.

As always his article is thought provoking but represent a minority view in a Barbados which has become fixated to achieve developed status come hell or high water.

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88 responses to “Dick Got Balls”

  1. Chris Halsall Avatar
    Chris Halsall

    MME: I bow to you, in the humble and respectful manner which only the Buddha form of same can communicate…

    To John and Inkwell… If I May (IMHO) (No rant intended…).

    Potable water is scarce in the world. Wars are fought over it. Correct: sea water is not scarce. It is not infinite, though. Think fisheries and CO2 absorption…

    However, it takes energy to convert brine (or even brackish) water water to potable. Who supplies this energy?

    Mother Nature does this quite regularly because she has a great big solar collector, and a nuclear reactor, called herself. To make pure water, she heats up bodies of contaminated water, which evaporates into the atmosphere.

    From time-to-time, and from region-to-region, she will return this to a liquid state, which is then inclined to try to find its lowest potential energy (read: it rains, and then drains…).

    However, it is important to point out that she does not always do this for everyone, generally does not do it for anyone exactly when they want it (between 0100 and 0500 would be great, thanks…), and often does it in quantities which no-one wants (think Katrina and New Orleans, et al).

    On the other hand, we humans have to produce potable water, we have to provide the input energy required. There are many methodologies, but they all require energy. Where do we get this energy? From the sun, or from electricity?

    My above is simply meant to paint a description of the processes…

    I think a key issue many of us are trying to present and argue here, is that the problems before us are simply that: problems. Non-intractable problems are to simply waiting to be solved.

    However, “tricky” problems sometimes require new thinking. And, often, sacrifice. There is no “reset button” — this is where we find ourselves. Here and now.

    So, what do we *DO*?

  2. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    Micro Mock Engineer,

    Bush Tea has nuff respect for you… as a young, idealistic engineer (and ex-hermit), your optimism and confidence in our abilities to invent our way out of the dire challenges that face humankind is truly refreshing…. not realistic mind you, but refreshing and even tempting.

    But cuddear MME, don’t insult us by dismissing ‘Peak Oil’ as being just like peak stone(??!?), peak coal, peak whale oil(?) etc.

    You know full well that unlike any of your other peaks, oil sits at the very base of the pyramid that represents our civilization. On it sits our transport systems, our food, our industry, our military, our tourism, … the very water that we drink…

    …even if you are not a civil or structural Ing, you must know what happens to a structure when its base is weakened….

    MME, however you approach this situation, the inevitable result will be chaos….
    BUT YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT ONE KEY POINT…
    You said …”The process will be driven by the development of alternatives – alternative energy source…”

    That is exactly right. The alternatives will be forced upon us by developing circumstances.

    These alternatives will be wholly inadequate in the context of present day habits. The options provided will be more like those that our grandparents experienced..

    The question is, after being spoiled by the plentiful oil cushion over the last generation do we have what it will take to live with the ‘alternative’ of no oil, no imports, no supermarket, no job, no running water, no electricity???

    What have what?!?

    How many will even know where to turn just to eat, far less to invent high tech global energy systems that have eluded us for decades, – as you suggest?

    Trust me MME, far better to place your faith in BBE; investigate the plans for “Project life on earth”; check out the great prospectus, and focus your energies on the REAL deal for the future (phase 2)

    … some wisdom from the ‘nac.

  3. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    Green Monkey said:

    “Just because we want desperately to find alternative sources of energy to replace oil and hydrocarbons and allow us to continue our energy extravagant lifestyles is no guarantee that these alternative sources will be found”

    *******

    GM,

    Viable alternative energy sources and energy conversion systems are ALREADY available, and more continue to be developed and improved daily (the rate of development will be particularly rapid at today’s oil prices). And I’m not speaking of those so-called solutions mentioned by the authors in your submissions… conventional PV, wind, ethanol, hydrogen economy… those are strawmen used by these authors to support their illogical conclusions… as for the people who promote these technologies as the ultimate answer to our energy requirements, they need to take a physics course or two. Don’t get me wrong, these all have a small part to play, but the real players in the future (10+ years) will be other technologies like new solar (thin film PV – CIGS, quantum dots etc.) along with oil which will be a major contributor for several years to come, and yes, some “pie in the sky” technologies… my favorite is Metalloradicals. But back to the alternatives we already have that would substantially reduce oil demand in the short term (5– 10 years)… Nuclear Electricity / Electric Car combination (the US already depends very little on oil for electricity generation… <3%) and coal, along with continued use of hydro, gas, and expanding geothermal and Energy-from-Waste where applicable. And there is more than enough oil and gas to comfortably make the transition… at least according to my sources at the EIA, IEA, OPEC, WRTG Economics, BP Statistical Review, Exxon-Mobil Energy Outlook etc… and these don’t even account for areas that environmental extremists have successfully lobbied to exclude from exploration, or unconventional sources that are already competitive at today’s prices. I expect you will criticize my data sources, but I would happily review your sources if you provide them.
    There are several reasons for the present high prices – recent strong global economic growth and commensurate surge in demand in emerging market economies, transitory shortages in experienced personnel (not enough MME’s) and equipment/materials used in the oil industry, NIMBYISM and environmental alarmism, market speculation, political instability in major oil producing states, market manipulation by OPEC etc. But none of these represent genuine shortages in the resource… in other words the problems we are experiencing are not geological they are largely political… a result of poor LEADERSHIP. Let not your heart be troubled… today’s high prices are a necessary ingredient in the successful transition to alternatives, and certainly do not reflect the long-term equilibrium price for oil. If only we could organize a LEADERSHIP bootcamp for the world’s politicians… run by engineers of course 🙂
    …a little more on OPEC market manipulation… don’t you find it a bit odd that OPEC oil production has basically been flat for the past 30 years? Even in years when they induct new members their total production remains constant, for example… Angola and Ecuador joined them last year, but while the 2.4 million bbl per day these two countries contributed disappeared from non-OPEC production the moment they joined, there was no commensurate increase in OPEC production… 2.4 million bbl per day just vanished overnight… LOL
    The world is paying a price for poor US domestic and foreign policies, but please don’t blame the present situation on diminishing resources… the evidence just doesn’t support this.

    *******

    Namaste Chris.

  4. John Avatar
    John

    Chris

    You have a point.

    Singapore is an island slightly larger than Barbados yet it supports a population of 4 million which it wants to rise to 6 million!!

    Googling Singapore Water is a quick way to appreciate the many ways it uses to solve the problem.

  5. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    …and no BT, we don’t need BBE to run that LEADERSHIP bootcamp… not yet at least 🙂

  6. John Avatar
    John

    Here’s what I am getting from Senn, 1946.

    Minimum rainfall 40 inches
    Maximum Rainfall 90 inches
    Average Rainfall 60 inches.

    I said 40 – 60 inches so I was wrong, it is 40-90 inches, average 60. Faulty (read old) memory.

    We plan for the drought years of 40 inches and don’t abstract more than that.

    Rainfall Dispersal

    Guesstimate of Evapotranspiration 75%
    Surface Runoff negligible in the Coral Rock Area because it is so porous
    Percolation underground 20%

    I said 80%, 10% and 10%. I was wrong, but I do remember these percentages from somewhere.

    The point Senn makes is that the benefits of attempting to trap water in the porous limestone area are minimal.

    When we see the water gushing out to sea from the gullies in the Coral area it is usually in the wet season and after heavy rainfall. It may be only a few days in a year.

    The majority of the time what rainfall is not used by plant life goes into the ground because it is so porous.

    We are yet to tap the water resources in the Scotland District.

  7. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    “oil sits at the very base of the pyramid that represents our civilization. On it sits our transport systems, our food, our industry, our military, our tourism, … the very water that we drink…”

    *******

    BT,
    These same arguments were once used to describe coal. Did you read any of Jevon’s 1865 book “The Coal Question”… here is the link again… http://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvnCQ.html

    … just substitute “oil” for “coal” and it is virtually indistinguishable from today’s peak oil diatribe.

    We continue to choose oil for the applications you mention simply because, up to now, there has been no reason for meaningful change.

    Next time you see a structure with a weakening base, I would suggest you call in one ah dem top notch MME’s like Gibbs or Phillips… uh beg yuh BT… doan leh um fall an kill de occupants 🙂

  8. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    … the irony of Jevon’s book, is that he completely dismissed petroleum as being a viable solution based on the limitations of their knowledge and technology at the time. This is what he had to say about petroleum:

    “Petroleum has of late years become the matter of a most extensive trade, and has even been proposed by American inventors for use in marine steam-engine boilers. It is undoubtedly superior to coal for many purposes, and is capable of replacing it. But then, What is Petroleum but the Essence of Coal, distilled from it by terrestrial or artificial heat? Its natural supply is far more limited and uncertain than that of coal, its price is about 15l. per ton already, and an artificial supply can only be had by the distillation of some kind of coal at considerable cost. To extend the use of petroleum, then, is only a new way of pushing the consumption of coal. It is more likely to be an aggravation of the drain than a remedy.”

    Maybe Jevon (who quit natural sciences in university to pursue studies in economics) can be forgiven… after all, as brilliant a logician and economist as he undoubtedly was , he couldn’t possibly envisage the developments that would take place in petroleum… Actually, I take that back, maybe he should have paid more attention to those American engineers… serves him right for dropping science.

  9. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    just when you thought it was safe to come back in the water… 🙂

    Was going to give it a rest for the night, but had to comment on the first two “oil dependent” applications you listed BT… our transport systems and our food (the others will take too long)…

    Transport is straight forward… replace oil with electricity.

    Food… it takes a little more time to unravel the misinformation and deception with this one… but simply put “Peakers” usually use a combination or all of the following to “prove” an inextricable link between petroleum and food:
    – fertilizer production is dependent on oil
    – pesticides are made from oil
    – oil is necessary to operate agricultural machinery and support distribution systems

    Lets deal with the last one first… replace oil with electricity.

    Next… fertilizer production is dependent on oil – FALSE. Plants need three primary nutrients Nitrogen, Potassium and Phosphorous. Petroleum contains Hydrogen and Carbon. Oil isn’t used at all in the process of making nitrogen based fertilizer (ammonia) however natural gas (which is not yet peaking) is used for its energy and convenient hydrogen. But the fact is, all you need to make ammonia are Energy (from alternatives which will also provide any Hydrogen required), Air and Water… and there is certainly no shortage of Potassium and Phosphorous. By the way, 60% of China’s nitrogen based fertilizer comes from coal. If you’re interested in learning more about fertilizer you can check out the International Fertilizer Association here – http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/statistics/indicators/ind_reserves.asp
    …one more interesting fact about ammonia, our bodies are probably the most efficient manufacturers of it… ask GP.

    Finally, pesticides are made from oil – TRUE… BUT they can be synthesized from gas and coal. But all this is really immaterial given how little oil is used in the manufacture of pesticides today… less than 0.05% of world oil production based on US EPA data – http://www.epa.gov/oppbead1/pestsales/01pestsales/usage2001.htm#3_1

  10. Bush tea Avatar
    Bush tea

    MME,

    … man you could drop all the draft you like… (and yuh sound REAL impressive too…) but I know that you know, that in this world of 2008 -where events take place from minute to minute, that there is NO room, or time, for the kind of change of which you speak.

    Even if new technologies were ready NOW, can you imagine the challenge to dump our stranded assets (Gazillions of dollars) and convert? And yet the price of oil (for whatever reason) is clearly forging ever upwards…

    Give me a real life solution MME – you see BL&P making any changes within 10 years?

    You see this crisis waiting 5 years to peak?

    …do the maths MME – it spells doommmm my friend.

    ..fortunately, BBE have other plans…

  11. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    LOL BT…

    in summary…

    the transition won’t cost a gazillion dollars (…you using Guyanese currency in your NPV analysis? Cuh dear… duh in have dat many in Barbados yet.)

    there is adequate oil in the ground to comfortably meet the world’s demands till 2030

    there is sufficient time to make the transition

    yes, politics and policies will have transitory effects on prices… but the resource is not really scarce, and the ‘artifical’ spikes are welcome therapy for a muscle that has atrophied from non-use during ‘good times’ (… our brain)

  12. Green Monkey Avatar
    Green Monkey

    MME said: there is adequate oil in the ground to comfortably meet the world’s demands till 2030

    That is the crux of the matter. Unfortunately some oil industry veterans. petroleum engineers and scientists (e.g. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, aka ASPO at http://www.peakoil.net ) believe it is likely that the official reserve figures of the OPEC c0untries have been grossly overestimated. The fact remains that just about all the major non-OPEC oil exporters are now in decline. So any new oil pumped, first of all, has to make up for the declining non-OPEC supply as well as hopefully still be enough to allow for a projected net increase of overall oil production of 2% per year over the coming years. (production has been flat for 2005, 2006 and 2007)

    From Peak Oil Overview – June 2008 :

    Comment: If one analyzes the reserves for OPEC countries, one very quickly comes to the conclusion that the published numbers are unreasonably high.

    This is the story: In the early 1980s, OPEC oil countries were all vying for high quotas. To get those high quotas, they believed that publishing high reserves would be helpful. One by one, OPEC oil countries raised their reserve estimates, in an attempt to make it look like they had more oil, so deserved higher quotas. To further this illusion, they kept the reserve numbers at the new high level, even when oil had been pumped out, and no new oil had been found.

    The practice has continued for years. OPEC leaders found that by overstating their reserves, they gained new respect, both within their own countries and abroad. They also found that the practice was very easy to do, since no one is auditing the reserve numbers they provide. (my emphasis /GM)

    A graph of OPEC oil reserves over time is as follows:

    http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Opec%2011%20Oil%20Reserves%20N.png
    (click link for graph)

    There are many other ways this problem can be seen. For example, OPEC’s oil production is unreasonably low in relationship to its reserves, unless the countries are inept at production or are misstating their reserve amounts. (See The Disconnect Between Oil Reserves and Production.)

    Another insight can be gained by looking at Saudi oil reserves, when Americans were involved in setting reserves. According to Matt Simmons’ “Twilight in the Desert”, Saudi oil reserves were 110 Gigabarrels (Gb or billion barrels in US terminology) in 1979, back when Americans were still partial owners of Aramco. If we subtract the 81 Gb pumped out since then, this suggests remaining reserves of 29 Gb.

    If is likely that the 1979 American estimate was low. If, instead, we use the Saudi published estimate of 168 Gb in 1980, and subtract from it production of 81 Gb to date, we get an estimate of 87 Gb. This is less than a third of the 264.3 Gb that Saudi Arabia is currently reporting as reserves!

    Kuwait is another country where we have an alternate estimate of the proven reserves available. An analysis by the Kuwait Oil Company as of December 31, 2001, showed proven reserves for the country of 24 Gb. Their published reserves were 96.5 as of December 31, 2001, moving up to 101.5 as of December 31, 2006!

    http://energybulletin.net/node/45681

    Reading your prognostications of an upcoming energy nirvana, MME, reminds me of the nuclear scientists in the early post WWII era who naively promised us that, thanks to the technology of nuclear power, electricity would become to cheap to meter and would essentially be free.

    By, the way, it looks like Great Britain is about to have a preview of the Peak Oil experience in the coming years as their North Sea fields are declining and they will have to rely more and more on importing expensive oil and natural gas to meet their energy requirements.

    From riches to rags

    The bar chart up top indicates the cost of importing oil and gas to the UK ballooning to about $200 billion (£100 billion) per annum by 2013 – just 5 years away. This completely dwarfs the riches of North Sea oil and gas production the UK enjoyed up to 2004, which were exported at rock bottom energy prices. The chart is indicative since it is unlikely that this will ever come to pass. It is unlikely that the UK will be able to source or pay for this ever rising energy bill on the international markets.

    Left to market forces, the problem will be solved by spreading energy poverty throughout the UK population. The wealthy who can afford the small amount of expensive energy on offer will be fine whilst the poor will just have to go without – personal transport, heat, light and power.

    http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4188#more

    I will watch with interest to see how well they do at implementing these novel, off the shelf energy generating technologies that you believe can replace hydrocarbons and are all set and ready to go.

  13. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    GM, dem ASPO’s under the misguided belief that demand for oil will continue to grow at its historical rate… dah make sense to you, especially wid de prices today?

    But wait… GM, I don’t know how I miss this Reuters news item yesterday:

    “WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) – U.S. oil demand in April was 863,000 barrels per day less than previously estimated and down 811,000 bpd from a year earlier, putting petroleum consumption at the lowest level for any April month in six years, the Energy Information Administration said on Monday.
    The lower oil demand was due to rising fuel prices and a faltering U.S. economy that has cut into petroleum use.”

    Dem numbers caan be true… nah… either Reuters or the EIA must have added one nought too many to dem figures… you mean to tell me, de drop in US demand for April almost cancels the ENTIRE WORLDWIDE growth in demand between 2006 – 2007 (990,000 bpd… http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_table_of_world_oil_consumption_barrels_2008.pdf)… and it doan end there… even though worldwide production so far for 2008 is hovering steady around 2 million bpd MORE than the same period last year http://omrpublic.iea.org, oil prices still rising… what peak oil what!?!

    BT, doan let GM and his peak friends trick you… check de numbers fuh yuhself.

    Peak oil en got a ting to do with rising prices.

  14. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    … by de way BT I like how you sneak in de second law of thermodynamics on me… “MME, however you approach this situation, the inevitable result will be chaos”.
    … you very well know I would never dispute that… but that chaos will not be caused by any peak in the recoverable oil available in Phase 1.

  15. Green Monkey Avatar
    Green Monkey

    MME, looks like the IEA doesn’t agree with your line of reasoning that high oil prices are unjustified by supply/demand issues.

    From the Financial Times:

    IEA warns of tightening oil supplies

    By Carola Hoyos in Madrid and Javier Blas in London

    Published: July 1 2008 13:16 | Last updated: July 1 2008 13:16

    The oil market will remain tight during the next five years as production from non-Opec countries stalls and demand growth remains relatively strong, the western countries’ energy watchdog warned on Tuesday.

    The International Energy Agency’s warning is the starkest sign yet that even record oil prices above $140 a barrel have not yet not done enough to balance demand growth from countries such as China with sluggish supply increases.

    The IEA said that annual non-Opec growth would slow to 0.5 per cent between 2008 and 2013, against demand growth of 1.6 per cent per year. The mismatch means the world economy would be more reliant on Opec, the oil cartel, and oil prices are likely to remain at record levels, analysts said.

    “Structural demand growth in developing countries and ongoing supply constraints continue to paint a tight market picture over the medium-term,” the IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, released on Tuesday in Madrid.

    “Poor supply-side performance since 2004, in the face of strong demand pressures from developing countries, has forced oil prices up sharply to curb demand,” the watchdog added.

    Crude oil prices surged on Wednesday more than $2.50 to $142.73 a barrel, but still below Monday’s record high of $143.67 a barrel. The report also said that current oil prices were “justified by fundamentals.” (my emphasis /GM)

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd683aa0-4764-11dd-93ca-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

    Countdown to $200 oil: International Energy Agency says current prices justified

    by Jerome a Paris
    Tue Jul 1st, 2008 at 05:42:59 PM EST

    It is oddly fitting that we touched $100 oil on 31 December and got halfway from $100 to $200 oil on 30 June – so we’re on track to reach $200 oil by 31 December this year (in case you’re wondering: +42% and again +42% from that level = +100% from the initial level).

    It is also fitting that on that same date, the International Energy Agency published one of its gloomiest ever analyses of the oil markets, asserting that oil prices are justified by fundamentals

    It said: “Like alchemists looking for a way to turn basic elements into gold, everyone wants a simplistic explanation for high prices,” bluntly adding: “Often it is a case of political expediency to find a scapegoat for higher prices rather than undertake serious analysis or perhaps confront difficult decisions.”

    I have been told by a reliable source that the IEA has been forbidden by the US administration from updating their absurdly cornucopian oil supply and demand scenarios until the report that comes out late this year (after the election); that report, which will publish the result of a “bottom-up” analysis (ie a summary of all existing oil fields, their production and/or prospects) is expected to show that oil production is unlikely to reach the levels that so many have blithely assumed – notably on the basis of previous optimstic IEA reports. The IEA, which was deemply unhappy about the current lies to was supposed to present and support, has been leaking word of the expected content of that new report for many weeks now, including an increasingly alarmist tone in its official reports, such as today’s Medium Term Market Outlook:

    “Structural demand growth in developing countries and ongoing supply constraints continue to paint a tight market picture over the medium-term,” the IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, released on Tuesday in Madrid.

    “Poor supply-side performance since 2004, in the face of strong demand pressures from developing countries, has forced oil prices up sharply to curb demand,” the watchdog added.

    Strong demand, disappointing supply. Hmm, where have I read this already?

    The IEA said that despite billions of dollars of investment, the challenge of pumping ever more oil out of their aging fields is proving so great that non-Opec countries will in the next five years have to rely on biofuels, such as corn-based ethanol, for 50 per cent of their growth in overall fuels.

    The fast decline of fields – especially in the North Sea and Mexico where production is shrinking by more than 20 per cent each year – means that 14.8m of the 16m barrels of new supply from non-Opec countries over the next five years will go to making up for losses from old fields producing less and less each year.

    This is one of the most important trends in current oil markets: the depletion of existing fields, and the decline in their production. It’s long been discussed in specialised sites like The Oil Drum ( http://www.theoildrum.com ) but it’s been ignored in the “serious” media for too long. and yet, discussions of new fields coming into production cannot paint a correct picture of future production trends if these declines are not deducted to get net production increases.

    http://energybulletin.net/node/45695

  16. Chris Halsall Avatar
    Chris Halsall

    Ah, yes… Enthalpy and Entropy. Those sexy, sexy twins! Sigh; the memories…

    BT is quite correct, MME, as you articulate. Chaos is enviable. Of course, when those who know deeply about such things give an estimate for its arrival, the value is usually expressed with an exponent (sometimes two)… (Read: a number with many, many, *MANY* zeros…)

    Happy Canada Day, everyone!

  17. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    Good Morning GM…

    “looks like the IEA doesn’t agree with your line of reasoning that high oil prices are unjustified by supply/demand issues”

    True… also looks like Carola Hoyos in Madrid and Javier Blas in London don’t agree with my line of reasoning either… maybe they didn’t receive the EIA press release yesterday on US demand for April before they went to press with their analysis… or maybe they did but couldn’t connect the dots… or maybe they were more focused on getting articles in on time rather than doing any real analysis (I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt)… how do you reconcile their ‘analysis’ with the information and analysis I provided in my last post? Read my last post again, with rested eyes, and give me YOUR opinion of the information I have presented.

    As for the IEA, who knows, maybe with the new demand figures now coming out of the US, their next report will revise downward their demand forecast… frankly, I’m far more interested in their data than I am with their opinion (trying to keep up with their frequent forecast revisions is dizzying). I analyse their opinions and data, along with that of everyone else’s I come across, and draw my own conclusions.

    We are in very turbulent times… you’ll get no denial from me on this… but turbulent times require creative, rational thinkers… and courageous leaders who can separate fact from hype.

  18. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    MME:
    Which data do you cornucopians use to explain the 50% increase in price this year?

  19. yambait Avatar
    yambait

    good to see Hermits making a contribution to worthwhile debate

  20. David Avatar
    David

    Who would have thought that Citigroup would find itself on the market being sold for ‘spit’

  21. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    The way things are moving all banks (and listed companies) will soon be ‘ spit’ rated.

  22. Chris Halsall Avatar
    Chris Halsall

    yambait… Well, at least our energy costs are low, and our carbon footprint is small…

    Heck, if I could just stop farting, I think I might actually be at zero…. 9-)

  23. Bush tea Avatar
    Bush tea

    MME,

    Don’t get tied up. You are absolutely right about the fall off in USA energy use. …(if they cut their usage by 300% they would still be disproportionately represented as energy consumers).

    As an ex-TFS Hermit, surely you recognize that the main problem stems from a GLOBAL drive by previously small ‘shoed’ peoples (small footprints) to acquire American standard size boots…

    There are two separate issues therefore….

    1 – an unprecedented increase in demand for energy and fossil fuel derivatives, driven by demand from emerging economies..

    2 – a sharp decline in American standard of living….driven by poor leadership and idiotic policies.

    Issue number 2 is a critical matter for the USA and its citizens and other plebes (remember that term?) who have tied their economies to that of the USA.

    Issue number one is a global matter where 4 billion of the world’s 6.6 billion people now aspire to live at the energy level that Americans established when practically all of earth’s resources were used to maintain that glorified level for about 800 million folks.

    Who is man enough to tell all these Chinese, Indians, South Africans, Brazilians, Australians and Bajans that they cannot live at that level because the earth’s resources cannot support it? You MME?

    LOL – you think you is the grub master?

    …so here is Bush tea’s summary of the situation…

    scenario…
    Word is out that kicking Jenny due to kick in 20 minutes…200 bajans in the bus stand trying to head for Mount Hillaby – one bus, max load 60- even loaded ZR style…

    …Bush tea predicts that there will be chaos (survival of the most ‘igrant) …and sprints off on his BMX bike for the hills…

    MME predicts that a brilliant engineer will find a way to get the 200 into the one bus… and all will head for the new beach front at Hillaby… last seen near VOB with a pocket calculator…

  24. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    ST… I knew it was just a matter of time before you jumped in 🙂

    GM been using soft ‘cut-and-paste’ arguments on me… I hope you coming with something better my malthusian friend…

    You asked “Which data do you cornucopians use to explain the 50% increase in price this year?”

    I answered that a few posts up… June 30, 2008 at 9:39 pm… paragraph beginning with “There are several reasons for the present high prices…”

    LOL CH… you taking some extreme measures to reduce your carbon footprint. I suppose we could stop breathing too… or at least try to take less breaths… I know how much ST like data, so here’s some for him:
    “The average person takes 24,000 breaths a day, breathing in approximately 6g of carbon dioxide, but breathing out around 800g during the same time. Over a year, you personally will add a net 290kg of CO2 to the atmosphere, just by exhaling. Multiply that by a global population of 6.5 billion and it adds up to a criminal 1.88 gigatonnes”… LOL. Read the rest here: http://www.buzzle.com/articles/reduce-our-carbon-footprint.html

  25. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    LOL BT…

    I agree wid everything you said… up to that scenario.

    But, dis is wha really happen…

    It turn out that Kick’em Jenny really wasn’t due to kick for another 20 years… and it was jus de Nation showing a ‘Photoshop’ big wave washing over Bridgetown to sell newspapers… and Jippy Doyle an his ‘prophet’ friends who sip one too many communion, talking bout how dem got visions… and a couple UWI Seismic Research Unit scientists looking for attention and research funding… and politicians thinking that as long as de people friten bout a big wave, dey ain guh pay no attention to real issues, like all de pilfering and corruption… and a few smart ZR men dat realize how much money dey cud mek in a few hours…

    Meanwhile, some MME’s on de sidelines trying dey best to point out dat Kick’em Jenny has a basal diameter of about 3 miles and rises only 4,300 feet above the sea floor… much too deep to cause any major sea surge, since the dome collapsed in the late 1980’s. It therefore poses no immediate threat… unless of course de plebes act irrationally and trample one annuda.

  26. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    Quick… somebody call Dr. GP… BT look a lil wobbly after dat upper cut.
    CH… see if he could tell how much fingers you holding up.

  27. Bush tea Avatar
    Bush tea

    What upper cut what?!?
    That was a wild left hook, MME, lucky shot….

    ….but you are a MME after my own heart, so Bush tea will reserve a spot for you in BBE’s team.

    ….I have a feeling we can use you in the public relations department for phase 2….

  28. Chris Halsall Avatar
    Chris Halsall

    MME et al: If I may…

    I believe strongly that (every)one should always feel and be humble.

    I would argue that if one is not, then one has simply not thought about their situation long enough…

    No matter the believe structure, to do otherwise is hubris….

  29. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    MME:
    Why this a long thread !

    I hit your first concrete data post and stopped.
    We are talking apples and oranges here my friend, you quote production figures.

    The market moves on export figures.

    Ever checked out ELM?

    KSA can produce a gazillion barrels of heavy sour and it moves the market not one jot.

    The world is short on light sweet crude for gas and diesel….hence the price rise.

    Fundamentals as the IEA admitted today.

    Seems like everyone is now waking up to reality.

    P.S. I see that the futures market is 3% net short, all contributions gratefully recieved.

  30. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    LOL BT… public relations? I was hoping for something easy like HR… but i’ll take any vacancy BBE got for me.

  31. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    Chris… I agree 100%… Namaste.

  32. John Avatar
    John

    ..More doom and gloom that may or may not happen

    Beijing’s water crisis
    The new Probe International report, Beijing’s Water Crisis: 1949-2008 Olympics, has captured worldwide attention.

    The report, which reveals that Beijing’s 200 or so rivers and streams are drying up and that many of the city’s reservoirs are nearly empty, warns that intense pressure on scarce resources for China’s ‘green Olympics’ in August is pushing the city towards economic collapse.

    Download your copy of Beijing’s Water Crisis: 1949-2008 Olympics here.

    Story highlights follow.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Within a generation Beijing will cease to exist
    by Antoaneta Bezlova, Inter Press Service News Agency, July 1, 2008

    Few in the Chinese capital are aware of the price their city would pay for staging the world’s first ‘green Olympics’ in August. The fabulous capital of Chinese emperors and the epitome of modern China’s ambitions is being driven to extinction by its chronic lack of water. And the Olympic games are expediting the city’s slow demise, according to experts.

    “Within a generation this city would cease to exist,” says Dai Qing, China’s best-known environmentalist. “We won’t have the ancient capital any longer and the ugly modern Beijing would disappear too. Unfortunately, government officials and Beijing residents are equally unaware of how serious the water crisis is.”

    Read on.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Beijing may be running out of water
    United Press International, June 28, 2008

    Researchers say China’s efforts to supply its booming capital of Beijing with water are falling short, which could force officials to shut down industries there.

    The report by the Canadian firm Probe International says massive efforts underway to divert water from other parts of the country, including Tibet, won’t be enough to keep the city in potable water.

    Read on.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Beijing’s water crisis and economic collapse
    by Richard Welford, CSR Asia, July 2, 2008

    Indeed, the Chinese capital’s water crisis is so critical that the city is facing economic collapse, a leading development policy group has said. Part of its population may need to be resettled in coming decades. Experts predict Beijing could run out of water in five to 10 years, according to the report by Canada-based Probe, called Beijing’s Water Crisis: 1949-2008 Olympics.

    Read on.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Olympic city is running dry and facing collapse
    from correspondents in Beijing, Courier Mail (Australia), June 28, 2008

    The Chinese capital’s water crisis is so critical that the city is facing economic collapse, a leading development policy group said yesterday.
    It said part of its population would need to be resettled in coming decades.

    Experts predict Beijing could run out of water in five to 10 years, according to Grainne Ryder, policy director at Probe International.

    Read on.

  33. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    ST… that is a very good point you have made… it has given me pause.

    You may recall me making a comment to you way back in the “Responding To The Challenges Of Expensive Energy” thread about “the decision of the US to increase its strategic petroleum reserve in August 2007 (in particular the doubling of light sweet crude reserves which is in heavy demand globally for its low sulphur environmental benefits)”.

    We never got into this in any depth, but it is probably appropriate now that you have introduced the availability of light sweet crude as the issue.

    But first… I would like to make sure I fully understand where you are coming from, as it would appear that you are departing somewhat from the conventional peak oil theory…

    Are you saying that the production of total crude (sweet, sour and everything in between) has not yet peaked and is not a problem, but the production of light sweet crude has peaked and this (along with the other geopolitical factors of course) and rising global demand for light sweet crude is causing the spiraling prices we are observing today?

  34. yambait Avatar
    yambait

    All this long talk…Is anyone aligned with companies bidding for offshore drilling contracts off Barbados. Will you engineers and analysts sit by and let the money fly by like land on west coast. there should be a clause to include local expertise as condition for bidding

  35. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    Yambait:

    With the chronic global shortage of drilling rigs and experienced personnel, combined with Bush’s recent decision to open up US coastal waters for exploration, I would be very surprised if Barbados is in position to demand many concessions from any company willing to bid for our blocks.

    There are much better prospects North and South of us which may attract the precious rigs.

  36. yambait Avatar
    yambait

    Companies still want the rights even if they sit on them for 20 years. This is why less than 30 per cent of areas in US have been drilled so far. It is also probably easier for the big companies to “underpay” a country like Barbados for royalties. My view is that except for companies currently operating in Trinidad, Barbados will have to wait a long time given the depth of water.

  37. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    MME:

    I am not an oil expert, CLB would be better responding to you.

    Speaking purely as a layman, Peak oil is not the most pressing issue we face.

    Although we may have passed the peak, we will not know it for a fact until we are further down the road and check the rear view mirror.

    My concern is the staggering cost of gas, and the horrendous consequences of its continuing rise.

    I am certain in my own mind that this time next year it will be double again, as it has been for the last two years.

    And absent your much heralded technological breakthroughs it will probably double the year after too.

    We have hit the buffers on cheap, easy to get oil.

    There is not enough to go round, especially the light sweet crude oil Saudi and the North Sea had, until recently, in abundance.

    The Saudi Energy Minister is not lying when he says they have spare oil on offer and therefore sees no reason to increase supply.

    He does not say that the oil on offer is mainly sour crude that can only be refined in specialist refineries, which are working at full capacity and cannot handle any more of the stuff.

    China, having just made a deal with Chavez is working towards its own solution by building refineries for the heavy oils which Venezuela produces in order to break this logjam and secure its own energy needs.

    However during the era of $10-20 oil there was no commercial incentive to invest in Western refineries or exploration equipment, the new price marks are making that difference, and new plant is now being planned in spite of environmental concerns.

    Yes, light sweet crude is the grade our road and air transport rely on and it is becoming increasingly hard to source.

    Deniers of this crisis point to any other explanation and possible silver linings.

    Ethanol – but 1 acre of corn will only produce 18 gallons of fuel per year, you get slightly more yield from cellulose (sugar cane )

    Tupi Brazil – Amazing find, but even more amazing technological breakthroughs are necessary to get at the stuff.
    It is six miles down, twice the depth of any current well, through a salt layer 1 mile thick,and at temperatures which will melt bismuth with pressures exceeding 18,000 lbs psi.
    If it ever comes to production oil prices will have to be higher than they are today to make it economical to exploit.
    If it ever sees fruition its 8 billion barrel
    reserve will keep the whole world running for approx 5 weeks.

    Our old supergiant Cantarell and North Sea fields are declining at such a rate that new discoveries cannot compensate.

    We are using 6 barrels of oil to every newly discovered barrel and have for the last few years.

    Oil is finite, and at some point soon demand will exceed supply, when it does we are in very serious trouble.

    We’ve already debated and dismissed the evil speculator theory in a previous thread.

    I’m afraid the time may be past for planning, and we may now be entering the emergency mitigation mode.

    Reactive not Proactive, as usual.

    Have a nice day.

  38. Micro Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro Mock Engineer

    Ok ST… had to take a break to activate my $145/bbl plan 🙂

    In any case, I am sure most bloggers are tired of this subject… even you have indicated that you no longer bother to read all of my rants. I can assure you that I carefully read and investigate yours ST. And so, here is my final installment in response to your last post (your statements in quotation marks)…

    *******
    “I am certain in my own mind that this time next year it {oil price} will be double again, as it has been for the last two years.”

    well… I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I think the outcome of the US elections, condition of the US economy/dollar, US energy policy, and the global geopolitical situation will have a major influence… but my money is on a lower long-term average oil price.

    *******
    “… absent your much heralded technological breakthroughs it will probably double the year after too.”

    Which one of the solutions that I previously put forward do you consider to be technological breakthroughs?

    1) nuclear power
    2) coal power
    3) electric vehicles
    4) short term conservation – you’d be surprised how much energy we could give up without even impacting (and perhaps even improving) our quality of life… but I readily concede that this specific measure is only useful in the VERY short term.

    *******
    “… the oil on offer is mainly sour crude that can only be refined in specialist refineries, which are working at full capacity and cannot handle any more of the stuff.”

    True, but just so readers get the full picture perhaps you could also have shared that 45% of world refinery capacity now processes sour crude.

    Sour crude is sold cheaper than that “easy to get at” light sweet crude. And sour crude is also “easy to get at”. But it is relatively more expensive to refine, and is therefore sold at a discount.

    *******
    “Yes, light sweet crude is the grade our road and air transport rely on and it is becoming increasingly hard to source.”

    This statement is FALSE. Road and air transport depend on BOTH sweet and sour crude. As previously pointed out, 45% of worldwide refinery capacity processes sour crude. In the US, over 75% of their refinery capacity processes sour crude.

    There IS a temporary shortfall in global refinery capacity, but this is the result of inadequate investment by oil producing countries/companies due in part to:

    1) $10/bbl flashbacks of the late 90’s, which resulted from over-capacity, and

    2) Environmental lobbyists successfully blocking refinery development applications (particularly for sour crude on the basis of CO2 ‘pollution’).

    *******
    “Deniers of this crisis point to any other explanation and possible silver linings.”

    None of your silver lining straw-men (Ethanol, Tupi Brazil) have ever featured in any of my submissions. I agree with your assessment of these.

    *******
    “We’ve already debated and dismissed the evil speculator theory in a previous thread.”

    I must have missed that debate. You may have dismissed it, but there is no doubt in my mind that speculation is playing a part in the high prices. CFTC needs to act swiftly to reintroduce regulatory oversight and strict rules governing the trading of oil futures in New York and London. It is time to close that loop-hole orchestrated by Enron and it’s greedy accomplices in 2000 (…the “Enron On-line Trading Program” for unregulated internet trading of oil and other commodity futures). Enron’s notorious business practices were eventually exposed, but its legacy Trading Program remains in use today and has even been expanded – Google it.

    *******
    “I’m afraid the time may be past for planning, and we may now be entering the emergency mitigation mode.”

    Emergency mitigation may be required in the short term due to political mismanagement and ill-informed policies by global leaders (e.g. prohibiting oil exploration in oil abundant areas, blocking construction of new refineries, prohibiting the development of nuclear power, subsidizing ethanol, CO2 hysteria, invading Iraq etc.) but this has nothing to do with the long-term availability of crude oil or existing viable alternatives like coal, nuclear and electric vehicles.

    ‘Peakers’ fall into two groups – those who are inciting a stampede for the emergency exit as they predict the imminent collapse of civilization, and those who long for the end of industrialization and a return to ‘simpler’ times with fewer people in the world living on farms or in tribes. The first position is irrational and the second, while obviously of great appeal to many people, is of no interest to me. My preference would be to implement the solutions already available to us, and to cultivate and utilize the single most important natural resource (the HUMAN MIND) for problem solving and continuous improvement.

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