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Submitted by Bush tea

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Source: Bloomberg

Bush tea we take your point but there is a process which Barbadians will have to undergo to achieve the philosophical change which you are suggesting. Could we say that the same triggers or mental gymnastics required for Barbadians to shift to greening is the precursor to changing how we are currently managing things?

David – BU

With the cost of oil ballooning to US $122 per barrel in May 2008, it has become apparent to just about everyone that we have a global crisis on our hands. Cheap oil is the foundation on which everything that we hold dear stands; from the water we drink; the food we eat; the way we travel, communicate; etc to the very materials – especially PVC’s and plastics that we use. Most of us only seem to have recognized this crisis now that the actual problem of high prices, scarcity, and even food riots and open chaos in some countries has hit us in the face.

Even more confusing, to my mind, has been the exercise of agreeing on how we need to respond to the crisis.

Putting aside the outrageous ideas such as having Government subsidize the cost of energy so that food and other products continue to be affordable; or of ‘negotiating’ double digit salary increases to enable workers wages to keep in step with rising costs; learned commentators such as JR and even the Barbados Light & Power now, have been pointing at conservation and finding alternatives to fossil fuels ( so called ‘greening’) as the best answer to the challenges that we face.

Question:

Why has oil become so valuable that it can now command a price that is 1000% of its value just 10 years ago?

The simple answer is because we have created a world where ‘success’ is defined in terms of the amount of goods that we are able to accumulate (GDP). In the last 40 years, our industrial infrastructure has been able to reach unprecedented levels of efficiency in producing goods and services. It stands to reason therefore that demand for ALL factors that are critical for ‘success’ will experience significant supply /demand pressures. It is not only fossil fuels that have exploded in value. Metals like copper, aluminum, gold etc and even rare items like plutonium have seen explosive increases in costs.

Here is the fundamental point.

If instead of oil, our industrial productive complex is converted to ‘green’ factors such as solar, wind, and bio products, the kind of phenomenal growth that current productive philosophies dictate will very quickly create a demand situation such that the basic input factors for the ‘green’ energy culture will experience the same pressures that oil and the metals etc now face.

In short, the basic problem will remain – only the symptoms will be a little different.

What then is the REAL problem?

The problem is obviously the clearly misguided but generally accepted philosophy that success is somehow related to ‘growth’ of productive output. Not that goods and services are unimportant, but surely- as with almost everything else- there is an optimum level of development above which, the cost-benefit factors decline significantly. The attached graph indicates this relationship.

We have moved our world into a position where enough persons are now far enough into the ‘B’ section of the graph that the overall strain is resulting in shortages of the critical inputs like oil. (… and lots of us – including those with huge resources, are increasingly unhappy) I am suggesting that the optimum developmental point is such that life on this earth can be idyllic for all of us, even while operating sustainably within the capacity of earth’s resources.

How much is enough?

Man is designed with unlimited potential. It is absolutely natural for us to refuse to be bounded by limits. This is why we spend billions to get to the heavens, the deepest depths of the sea and the darkest mysteries of life. It is also why we are so focused on ‘development’, which, to a certain point IS worthy of our ingenious efforts. The problem of course is that we have not recognized the REAL area of endeavor, which is intended to tax our collective drive and endurance, and like unguided youth we waste our enormous energies in fruitless and misguided endeavors.

It is like the common situation of the wayward child who, for lack of guidance from a special teacher, is condemned to become a troublesome mischief -maker, rather that the brilliant, talented leader of society that was possible – but for the proper directing of his natural talents. As a species, we have used our boundless talents to pursue material assets – and we have outdone ourselves to the point that the earth can no longer sustain our onslaught.

A change in course?

One would have thought that the current crisis would cause us to raise fundamental questions and would perhaps assist us in effectively changing course, but alas, we prefer to concentrate on finding alternative and more efficient means of misdirecting our energies towards accumulating goods.

As with the development of our youth, the critical factor in achieving any kind of success will be the existence and commitment of suitable teachers who can provide the leadership and guidance required. This is intended to be the role of the church, but we are now so far removed from this realization that some other arrangement will be needed if we are to move forward.

A hint from Bush tea

I am NOT a ‘teacher’ in the above sense, however I will provide a small hint of the REAL purpose and challenge on which our collective ingenuity and creativity should be channeled –

It is towards the creation and refinement of ‘excellence of character’.

…now here is a REAL challenge, given the different and contrasting personalities, ethnicities, moods and other differences among human beings, this is the ULTIMATE challenge that mankind can face.

To create a society where individuals, families, communities, countries and the global community, are molded into a model of human development. Where ultimately the epitome of achievement is a state of righteousness – that is – a state where a human being will CHOOSE to do the RIGHT thing given any range of conditions, options and inducements to the contrary.

No leader on this earth that I know of has the wisdom, strength or ability to put together such a global arrangement. However, I can tell you all – that very shortly, exactly such an arrangement will be implemented RIGHT HERE on this planet, including Barbados, by a leader that is ‘out of this world’.

…and Bush tea will be one of his boys…


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60 responses to “Responding To The Challenges Of Expensive Energy”

  1. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    Viva BT!

    It’s time to give everyone the broadside you have been so patiently withholding.


  2. Some of the main players eg America seem reluctant to accept the necessity for change, because they have become accustomed to a lifestyle, and they are reluctant to accept change. Developing nations eg China and India are asking, why should we make the sacrifices you are asking – in energy consumption – when our level of development in terms of standard of living has not reached your level. With these diametrically opposing views, it is difficult to get the consensus necessary to conserve the resources now available, and reduce what we are using.

    Human nature being what it is, and self interest governing all decisions taken, only when the major industrial nations are in “serious” trouble will decisions be taken to manage our resources properly, until then there will be a lot of anguish, and third world economies will only survive by prudent management and the ability to produce as much as they can from their own resources… there is no other way.

    The major oil producers are asking a “silent” question, why should there be cheaper oil, and more of it, and when our valuable resource has been exhausted, what then?

    We await Bush Tea’s leader to knock heads together, but until then there will be a lot of suffering. I fear as usual the poorer nations will be the most disadvantaged.


  3. Hi Yardbroom,

    I would like to disagree with you on one small point – about the poorer nations being likely to be most disadvantaged in the coming crisis.

    My take is that in this particular crisis the reverse will be true. The adjustments needed for an already desperate people accustomed to deprivation and ‘making do’ will be minor when compared to those ‘developed’ societies where most of us depend on the frills of development like electricity, air conditioning, heating and prescribed (and other) drugs for our sustainment.

    ….it will not be pretty.

  4. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    ….it will not be pretty, it will be frightening as the law of the jungle will attempt a comeback.

    Leaders of powerful nations will resort to bully boy tactics rather than adopt the painful but necessary adjustments.

    Short term popularity will battle against the new economic realism.


  5. Hi Bush Tea,
    Your point in terms of deprivation is quite true, however the poorer countries will not be able to advance from their present low base, in essence they will be standing still… the fortunate ones. The advanced industrial countries will be most deprived it is true, but most of them will have to fall far indeed, to reach the level of some undeveloped nations.

    Straight Talk,
    I think you have hit the nail on the head with the term”bully boy tactics” as that certainly will come into play. If I can refer to Bush Tea again…”it will not be pretty”.


  6. Thanks BT for a real view of the mess the world seems to have found itself. Conservation practices by citizens may well offer a short term solution, perhaps a ‘feel good’ feeling. Casual observations and interactions with Barbadians support the view that Barbadians are of the mindset that we survived the war years and the oil crisis of the 70s so we will survive the current crisis by chugging along like we have done in the past. The BU household is resigned to the fact that some disaster maybe the catalyst to move Barbadians from the comfortable groove where they find themselves.

    BT and all the others in the BU family let us keep on pushing the word. Hope lives eternal.


  7. I do not believe that the general population in Barbados is taking this current economic crisis seriously. It cannot be business as usual. Barbadians must adjust their eating and entertaining habits. The situation is going to get worse before it stabilises. We cannot continue to keep these habits up inspite of what is going on around the world and then blame the gov’t. If the BLP were still in power they would have to make these tough decisions too. In 1991-94 there was a crisis and many people were led to believe that it was only happening in Barbados. Thanks to many technological innovations within the last 10 years Barbadians have more access to the global community and therefore should have a better understanding of the crisis. I too have had to make some drastic adjustments here in New York, and I consider myself to be living a comfortable life. Now is the time to start making drastic adjustment so that when it gets worse there will be some element of cushioning.


  8. Some of the main players eg America seem reluctant to accept the necessity for change, because they have become accustomed to a lifestyle, and they are reluctant to accept change. Developing nations eg China and India are asking, why should we make the sacrifices you are asking – in energy consumption – when our level of development in terms of standard of living has not reached your level. With these diametrically opposing views, it is difficult to get the consensus necessary to conserve the resources now available, and reduce what we are using.

    =================================
    Sometimes I think you guys get and then you make statements like this that says otherwise.

    Wealth creation takes money, money comes from debt. Wealth creation takes a lot of energy and resources. Where is the money coming from that is being invested in China and India and that is resulting the growth of these economies? Has anyone stop to consider the investment into these two countries by the American and European big business/Multinational corpr, and cash rich Middle Eastern Oil men and states? It is the same people, same system that is driving economic growth in China and India. These folks are not American or European in the sense that we may see ourselves as Barbadians, west Indians etc. While they may use companies that are registered in specific countries, one should dig a little deeper to see how the company is structured and funded. They are “money changers” nothing more and certainly nothing less.

    case in point: the current CEO of US base and registered CITI CORP one of the largest credit companies in the world is of Indian decent, and you would only know by his name, same for the richest man in England, he is not British nor white. Who owns 4% stake in Citigroup? Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

    Johnny To Bad on BFP suggested that it is not a mere coincidence that as investment companies and banks lose so much money on sub prime mortgages that oil prices has gone through the roof.

    Concider this:
    Citigroup needs to write down a FURTHER 24 billion in subprime and credit-related losses. Citigroup will be announcing its fourth-quarter earnings, sure to be a loss and may have to layoff 20,000 employee (a quarter of the population of St.Vincent). Citigroup also hopes to announce additional cash investments valued at between 8 and 15 billion, according to various media reports.

    Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal who already owns a 4% stake in Citigroup, is likely to invest another large sum.

    Remember folks. Money as Debt,…it vanishes into, and is created out of THIN AIR.

    Kuwait, Singapore sovereign wealth fund, Abu Dhabi is looking to invest Merrill Lynch.

    If we market conservation from the point of view of whats in it for the conserver then we can make head way against the greed of the banker/investor/oilmen/moneychangers. For Debt is the grease that keeps this ‘moneymill” going around.

    20,000 people have their lives disrupted just so. WOW.


  9. Bush Tea you article made for good reading until i got to the last part where you seem lest convince and somewhat vague in telling me what you really want to say: What are you proposing?

    “a state where a human being will CHOOSE to do the RIGHT thing given any range of conditions, options and inducements to the contrary.

    No leader on this earth that I know of has the wisdom, strength or ability to put together such a global arrangement. However, I can tell you all – that very shortly, exactly such an arrangement will be implemented RIGHT HERE on this planet, including Barbados, by a leader that is ‘out of this world’.

    …and Bush tea will be one of his boys…”


  10. Bush Tea be a man (?) and not a mouse. You are anonymous so stop trying to be “mysterious”!
    By the way isn’t written that no one knows the hour except the Father that is in heaven?

  11. Thewhiterabbit Avatar
    Thewhiterabbit

    There is no real crisis, either in fuels or in foods. There is a created crisis centered in the halls of the commodity traders. Try just for once to look at real numbers. These real figures are available easily on the Internet, you just call up commodity markets and work from there. Oil supplies are equal to real oil demand. This year the world produced one million metric tons MORE rice than last year, how can there be a shortage? There isn’t a shortage of rice, there is only a perceived crisis of confidence that is driving prices up. At a certain price per barrel of oil it pays to exploit oil shales in the western US and oil sands in western Canada. That price was reached and surpassed long ago. Why do we see no development of oil shales and oil sands? Because the real oil people know full well that the real current value of oil is not over $35 per barrel, and just as soon as the facilities were in place to exploit oil shales and oil sands then the real value of oil would reassert itself and the capital invested would be lost. Ditto food. What we have today is an aberration in the marketplace and not a set of real shortages. The only people going hungry are those that cannot afford the illogically high prices, mainly folks who are subsisting on donated food in the first place. I realize that logic is nowhere near as much fun as panic, but lo, the end of the world is NOT near!!!!

    At home our illogically high prices are primarily a function of high (read confiscatory)government taxation and the net effect of having a set of ministers of government who never ever held a portfolio before and haven’t got a clue how to run the place.


  12. THIS ANON IS ME, ADRIAN HINDS

    Anonymous // May 9, 2008 at 9:33 am

    Bush Tea you article made for good reading until i got to the last part where you seem lest convince and somewhat vague in telling me what you really want to say: What are you proposing?

    With this?
    =================================
    “a state where a human being will CHOOSE to do the RIGHT thing given any range of conditions, options and inducements to the contrary.

    No leader on this earth that I know of has the wisdom, strength or ability to put together such a global arrangement. However, I can tell you all – that very shortly, exactly such an arrangement will be implemented RIGHT HERE on this planet, including Barbados, by a leader that is ‘out of this world’.

    …and Bush tea will be one of his boys…”


  13. Bush Tea raises a most important point about the need for us to fundamentally rethink aspects of life. He also makes the point that a return to business as usual may not be on the cards. Similar to the way in which persons practiced efficiency in the 1970s and then promptly went back to business as usual.

    The economist magazine has an article on energy efficiency this week.

    http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=1065811&story_id=11326549

    The article essentially makes the point that energy efficiency is viewed as “the fifth fuel”. Energy efficiency is referred to as “negawatts” as opposed to megawatts and is viewed as the best method of slaking the world’s growing thirst for energy.

    Most blueprints for tackling climate change assume that saving energy has a big part to play. A recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that energy efficiency alone could get the world halfway to a greenhouse-gas concentration goal recommended by many scientists.

    Even though overall energy use is rising as the global economy grows, the world is using less energy to generate output; intensity is falling by 1.5% a year. Price is a big factor. In countries with higher fuel prices, there is more incentive for manufacturers and consumers alike to be more energy efficient. America’s energy intensity was falling by a 0.4% until the oil shock of 1973. It is now falling by 2% a year.

    However, a major factor undermining the benefits of an energy efficiency drive is the so called “rebound effect”.

    Falling demand for electricity or fuel brought on by an efficiency drive should lead to lower prices. But cheaper energy, in turn, is likely to prompt greater consumption, undermining at least some of the original benefits. What is more, consumers with lower electricity or fuel bills often put the money they have saved to some other use, such as going on holiday or buying an appliance, which is likely to involve the consumption of fuel and power.

    Economists disagree about the size of the rebound effect, which is hard to measure. The British government commissioned two studies of the effect, from two different universities. The first found that it cancelled out roughly 26% of the gains from energy-efficiency schemes; the other put the figure at 37%. Either way, negawatts are worth pursuing. But they are unlikely to satisfy the world’s thirst for energy to the extent their advocates assume.

    So Bush Tea is quite on the ball. Habits have to change fundamentally for their to be real and lasting benefits.


  14. Thewhiterabbit,
    Do you understand what you have written saying that the ministers don’t have a clue because they never held a ministry before? Seems like you are showing you bias!!!


  15. But according to Bush Tea such attempts to change are doomed to failure. There is no one in earthly existence who can lead us in this change ( “No leader on this earth that I know of has the wisdom, strength or ability to put together such a global arrangement.”) So he awaits a leader that is ‘out of this world’.

    Why then bother about anything at all. Let us just wait for this out-of-this-world-leader.

  16. Adrian Hinds Avatar

    Thewhiterabbit says:
    There is no real crisis, either in fuels or in foods. There is a created crisis centered in the halls of the commodity traders.
    ================================

    I concur. This is why i believe conservation; not from a save the world perspective but from a keep more money in my pocket perspective is much more marketable.

    You spend less, you incurr less debt, and Sellers of consumables will have less to deposit. The banks having less deposits, will mean less (thin air) money to lend base on their fractional reserve system, and what ever they have to lend is available to less takers because you are conserving. Since they are lending on interest they make less money. But this needs to be balance because as someone once said if you cut back your spending and indebtedness to to much you will enveriable cut your savings. Money is Debt. folks.

  17. Adrian Hinds Avatar

    If energy conservation both saves money and is good for the planet, why don’t people do more of it?

    this is the leading questions from that JR supplied ECONOMIST.COM article
    http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=1065811&story_id=11326549

    I believe this to be case, and to be so simply because most persons first heard of energy conservation as a way to combat the doom and gloom argument, that the earth needs us to save it from certain destruction. I know I am not alone in not believing this unbelievable lie. Hence my call for a remarketing of conservation as a way to save in general.


  18. Whatever the motivation, energy efficiency is good in and of itself.

  19. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    Energy efficiency is good for the planet…. if we all are committed.

    It only needs one super-state, for no matter what reason and there are several, to not buy into this global economy drive, and then all savings will be down the drain.

    I repeat, if after all these economies, fossil fuel production maintains current output (which I believe it will ) then all our frugality will count for nought.

    Think about it.

    Are the generals in Nigeria or the princes in Saudi going to willingly slash their income? — can Chavez even afford to?

    Of course they won’t.

    They’ll keep pumping no matter what the price, and unscrupulous politicians will carry on telling their people “everything’s OK carry on as normal” until I’m out of office.

    Production has maxed at 84 bbpy.
    It has been flat for the past 4 years.

    Demand grows as the world economy grows, GDP growth = energy consumption.

    I welcome alternative views, particularly those that recommend studying the data, there is only one sane conclusion.

    We have to adjust to more expensive energy.

    Talk of a return to oil at under $50 a barrel is wishful thinking.

    In my mind it will never go under $85 again, in fact it will be double that by the end of the year.

    Get used to it…..and adapt your lifestyle.


  20. “Bush Tea you article made for good reading until i got to the last part where you seem lest convince and somewhat vague in telling me what you really want to say: What are you proposing?
    With this?”
    Adrian (Anon) Hinds,

    Adrian, man cut me a bit of slack, it was not my intension to explain any concept here, and that is why it is called a ‘HINT’ from Bush tea…. it just slipped out…

    The truth is that a blogger called ‘Micro Mock Engineer’ tricked me into mentioning that aspect of my analysis of the current situation on our planet.

    In the last 30 years I have been unable to get anyone to listen to my theory on ‘Project Life on Earth”. Not even my theory on this current phase of mankind’s existence has been able to attract any serious listeners, far less the next phase. (…and God forbid I even hint at the final phase).

    My friend Straight Talk also dropped me unceremoniously- even in the process of outlining the overall concept, and numerous other close friends now look at me with deep suspicion whenever such topics arise.

    What proposing what?!?

    Bush tea ain’t proposing a thing… I am quite happy to wait and say ‘I told you so…”

    • Anonymous // May 9, 2008 at 12:49 pm
    But according to Bush Tea such attempts to change are doomed to failure. There is no one in earthly existence who can lead us in this change ( “No leader on this earth that I know of has the wisdom, strength or ability to put together such a global arrangement.” So he awaits a leader that is ‘out of this world’.
    Why then bother about anything at all. Let us just wait for this out-of-this-world-leader.

    Anonymous,
    …you may well be right about just waiting….
    What Bush tea actually said was that ‘no one on earth THAT I KNOW OF…’ etc. Maybe you know of someone?!? …..

    Bush tea also understands the overall project concept well enough to realize that we will never be able to achieve the kind of fundamental changes in habits needed to correct the problems that we face…..you need to appreciate the project…

    With respect to the article in the Economist, …of course conservation is a good thing and should be practiced and encouraged…. So is exercise and healthy eating, but no one thinks that these will change the world either.
    Remember the joke about the old Bajan who was praising a young man for not being a drinker? “….the more that will be available for me…’ he reasoned.

    The sad truth is that the fuel situation is almost too easy an example to demonstrate and in fact there are numerous examples which Bush tea could use to demonstrate that the situation of our world, (and also in our personal lives,) is completely ‘upsided down’ based on simple common sense.

    …but believe it or not, ‘Project life on Earth’ is progressing on time, on budget and on schedule and everything is running like clockwork…

  21. Green Monkey Avatar

    This is interesting, article snipped below claims increasing oil prices and an ever increasing reliance on imported oil are going to knock the USA off its pedestal as the world’s only superpower.

    Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower

    By Michael Klare.

    How Rising Oil Prices Are Obliterating America’s Superpower Status

    Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world’s other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.

    Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4.00. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation’s economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower-in-the-making.

    That the fall of the Berlin Wall spelled the erasure of the Soviet Union’s superpower status was obvious to international observers at the time. After all, the USSR visibly ceased to exercise dominion over an empire (and an associated military-industrial complex) encompassing nearly half of Europe and much of Central Asia. The relationship between rising oil prices and the obliteration of America’s superpower status is, however, hardly as self-evident. So let’s consider the connection.

    Dry Hole Superpower

    The fact is, America’s wealth and power has long rested on the abundance of cheap petroleum. The United States was, for a long time, the world’s leading producer of oil, supplying its own needs while generating a healthy surplus for export.

    Oil was the basis for the rise of the first giant multinational corporations in the US, notably John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company (now reconstituted as Exxon Mobil, the world’s wealthiest publicly-traded corporation). Abundant, exceedingly affordable petroleum was also responsible for the emergence of the American automotive and trucking industries, the flourishing of the domestic airline industry, the development of the petrochemical and plastics industries, the suburbanization of America, and the mechanization of its agriculture. Without cheap and abundant oil, the United States would never have experienced the historic economic expansion of the post-World War II era.

    No less important was the role of abundant petroleum in fueling the global reach of US military power. For all the talk of America’s growing reliance on computers, advanced sensors, and stealth technology to prevail in warfare, it has been oil above all that gave the US military its capacity to “project power” onto distant battlefields like Iraq and Afghanistan. Every Humvee, tank, helicopter, and jet fighter requires its daily ration of petroleum, without which America’s technology-driven military would be forced to abandon the battlefield. No surprise, then, that the US Department of Defense is the world’s single biggest consumer of petroleum, using more of it every day than the entire nation of Sweden.

    Continued at:
    http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=25804

  22. Birdpickmango Avatar

    We can debate the “whys”and wherefores until we die. However, the eventual response to a reduction of energy supply will be localised and driven by the survival instincts of both the leaders and the community. Some will choose to be victims. Others sabiteurs. The ultimate direction of the society will be decided by those willing to pay the price in the short term and rate at which the creative responses that always come out of adversity can be implemented. The real challenge will be our ability to generate additional foreign exchange and rethink our narrow attitude towards manufacturing. Both of these are within our grasp. For the above reasons I will remain eternal optimist.
    Take the energy use that is related to vehicular traffic. There is no reason why our modern society should not be challenged to use public transport. For this reason a 24 hour air conditioned service that includes electricity driven buses should be strongly considered. Secondly, Barbados is small enough that several strategically placed natural round- abouts (Like the one at CableandWireless) and one streets would significntly improve traffic flow without significantly increasing time. Thirdly, there is a good quality of teachers and educational plant all across the island. There is therefore no good reasons that children should not go school in their neighborhood or zone. Fourthly, if we include some form of staggered working hours and we may find that energy savings would be significant.
    Secondly, access to the internet has made the physical boundaries that we use to define ourselves as meaningless. Barbadians limit business opportunities by only thinking of the Barbados Market. The same is true of not seeing culture and education as sources of foreign exchange. These are two areas that are substantially depended on energy. What would be the additional foreign exchange benefit if we deliberately decided to have tourists leave with empty pockets because of the services that we offer. In that regard certain aspects of photography would considered part of the manufacturing with tax reduction for added value. The point that I am making that the nature of this crisis will be no deeper than our willingness to make adjustments. Within the crucible of adversity we are accustomed to making adjusments. We forget that a number of delicacies we clamour for today were once hardship food. We can easily bite the bullet if we alter our perspective of progress. But that may only happen if voluntarily or otherwise see slavery in a different light.


  23. Birdpickmango we tend to agree with your comment. The government has a responsibility to the national economy to put an efficient mass transit system in position. It is clear that many Barbadians see a car as a necessity to manage their daily lifes. This belief by the public is certainly at odds with the conservation message which is being preached. The public will not buy in until they see options!

  24. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    …just getting in from the bar, so BU can expect my ramblings to be particularly lucid tonight 🙂

    Ok Bush tea… I had a look through some of the recommended reading following my encounter with those mishievous malakhim. That Buddhist Economics, and Shumacher’s work in general, is interesting and ties in almost perfectly with what you and some others have been saying here. Unfortunately, much like the search for alternative energy, the search for “alternative economics” has so far been disappointing. In both cases we have identified (and romanticized) alternatives that are technically sound but don’t quite cut it as practical replacements. This is basically what our celestial friend Gabe was getting at…

    Unfortunately both you and Gabe, while attacking the problem from different angles, are making the same mistake by assuming that because workable alternatives have not YET been identified it is beyond our capability to identify and implement them. So you predict and eagerly await the end of “project life on earth” (I already tell you dat yuh reading dat project schedule wrong… you sure you using de latest software version to open de file?) and Gabe, BBE bless her, has condemned us to a fate of perpetual Walrasian delusion.

    You have identified the problem, identified the likely causes and now, unable to identify workable solutions, concluded there are none… or at least none that don’t require immediate divine intervention.

    This energy crisis, like the previous ones, is temporary. A hint from MME: Look for singularity (project task 41264) on your schedule.

    Remember… BBE helps those who help themselves.


  25. I would appreciate being able to put down my car and use public transport. When I am in the UK or Canada, I happily use public transport instead of the private cars which are made available to me. So why do I not use public transport in Barbados? Answer: Mainly because of the environment of public transport in Barbados.

    I have to contend with
    – the overloading of buses,
    – the vulgar language of operators and passengers (as a female I am not anyone’s “darling” and do not care to hear what some man wants to do with a part of my anatomy!),
    – the loud (defeaning !) noise of the sound systems (which are unathorised by licensing authorities),
    – the general chaos of the bus terminus (the police are frequently called to restore order),
    – the often dangerous/reckless driving of PSV operators and
    – the refusal to work to strict time schedules coupled with the fact that between 8 p.m and 5 a.m. few (no) buses (neither Transport Board nor private PSV) run in my area.

    The buses are hot, uncomfortable and noisy (this is apart from the music) and do not accomodate my moderately disabled relative.

    So I will NOT put down my car which is comfortable, clean, quiet, accomodates my disabled relative, safely driven and insured and operates when and where I require transport for the public service system in Barbados until the issues listed above are resolved. Yes I will be stuck in traffic jams but so too will be the buses.

    Attempts to establish a suitable mass transit system will also be frustrated by the present location of shops/supermarkets, schools, places of entertainment and workplaces in relation to residential areas all of which seems to have been done without consideration of access by public transport or by walking. The use of private motor car seems to have been assumed to be the main/sole transportation mode.


  26. Micro Mock Engineer

    Trust me, I am using a beta version of the software.
    Where you are misreading the plans is in your failing to refer to the overall site plan. You seem to be preoccupied with the basic layout and the elevation…

    First thing…
    true we have identified the ‘problem’, however if you check the overall project plan, you will find that the ‘problem’ is simply a construction phase issue…. like what is going on at the Sir Garfield Sobers roundabout now….

    Second…
    I am NOT saying that this period represents the END of the project – just the end of this PHASE. You already forced me to hint about the next phase and now you got Adrian Hinds on my case….

    Thirdly…
    EVERYTHING is temporary… but after the energy crisis nothing will ever be the same again…

    Persons like the nice lady above, ‘Birdpickmango’ and ‘Thewhite rabbit’ whose reality does not allow them to see a world in total chaos will be in for a frightening shock within the next three years…

  27. Straight talk Avatar

    BT:
    “My friend Straight Talk also dropped me unceremoniously- even in the process of outlining the overall concept”

    I did not drop you discourteously, merely suspended our joustings as it was Christmas and the direction we were following warranted some frank responses which may possibly have offended some Bajan sensibilities at that joyous time of year.

    Perhaps this was a righteous decision from an increasingly enlightened MME, or maybe not.

    Not your feelings, you understand BT, for I know you love argument and are most capable of taking criticism, moulding it, and returning it ten-fold from whence it came.

    So fearing the thread would become diverted, and perverted, I retired from the list field, fully intending to re-enter after the twelth (k)night had passed.

    Then came the new year and $100 oil ( ah was it that cheap so short a time ago? ) and my view of the coming apocalypse overtook my thoughts, and I apologise for not picking up where we left off.

    As a keen reader of these blogs, I read all your posts with delight and can tell you haven’t missed me at all.

    I know your comment was tongue in cheek, but this reply is heartfelt.

    St

  28. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Bush tea,

    You are quite right… my knowledge of the next phases is severly lacking. And despite my “innovative tactical approach” you continue screeching the draft 🙂

    This is why my earlier comments have been restricted to this specific phase.

    I note that your “by this time next year it will become much clearer to everyone” has become “a frightening shock within the next three years”. While both statement are clearly indisputable, I am encouraged by the improvement in timing which the latter connotes 🙂


  29. Micro Mock Engineer,

    …careful with that ‘c hall’ talk, you beginning to sound like a hermit…

    I am shocked that you can recall such details of Bush tea’s bloggings…. a bit worried even…

    You did note that there is no discrepancy between the situation becoming ‘clear’ in one year and ‘frighteningly shocking’ in three.

    To be quite honest MME, ‘knowing the draft’ is neither here or there. There are no real benefits to being aware of the master plan. It does not make the ‘knower’ any better than anyone else; it does not provide any real advantages over anyone else… and actually it can be quite depressing…

    The main benefit come from the fun involved in upsetting high level academic positions which are ignorant of the master plan and usually based on easily derailed logic.

    …let us therefore put my theories aside for the time being…

    I must say however, that some persons stimulate Bush tea to delve into the concepts- none more so than my friend Straight talk.

    And ST, I did not accuse you of any discourtesy, far from that. You have always been courteous to a fault….. It was just a tongue in cheek remark.

    David….. off topic,

    Are you going to do an article on Education? Has anyone attended any of these Education Town Hall Meetings?
    Has Education Officers REALLY gone on sick-out for 11 plus exams?
    Are these Civil servants for real?
    Do they have a strategic plan for education in Barbados?
    Why are the results achieved by various schools and even teachers such guarded secrets?

  30. Birdpickmango Avatar

    Re: Anonymous // May 10, 2008

    No one can dispute the imperfections that you have raised. Regrettably they mirror one of sores of our society that few are willing to confront today but will be forced to do so sooner rather than later. What irks me at times is the public policy that is expedient rather than for the good of all. There was a time when a school was built to serve a specific educational purpose – Church schools, Codrington College, and Combermere were schools targeted to meet a target group. Over the last 20 years we built schools for political capital. The same is true of the Mini Bus service. Notice that many of the imperfections of which you speak are not present in other areas of Barbadian life.
    Do we overload aeroplanes? Or the stage at the stadium? Or Frank Collymore Hall?
    – Do civil servants or teachers use vulgar language? Don’t calypsonians code their references to sex to avoid getting their songs banned? What if individuals played loud sound systems in the Parks and Terraces at night? Don’t we call the police? Is there general chaos at the airport or Sea port or at crop over events?
    Our media and radio stations follow strict time schedules and there is late night programing. my area. On the other hand note that there was an incremental improvements to roads, electricity and water. Note also over the years the allocation (my subjectivity ) of Ministers to different ministries and relationship with perceived perks?
    I an advocating a change in mindset that recognizes a good transportation system is an invaluable asset whose importance is often not recognized. Indeed there should should be a tax system that clearly identifies tax sources and revenues that are specifically targeted for transport. For those who don’t use the system and may be unwilling to pay taxes they should think about the effects of a one or two day strike.
    The challenges of building a suitable mass transit system network is no different from developing a telephone network. Hierarchical routing and turn- styling are designed to take care of those issues. We are fortunate that we have high penetrations and experience in rebuilding of roads. What we have not done is recognize the power of change. The ABC highway and Warrens development show net gains. We do not need to implement an ideal system. What we need to accept that we can ill afford to turn a blind eye to the imperfections that you mention or fail to recognize that people who live in the parks, tourists, politicians, white people, rich people all have a right to a decent public transport system. I look foward to the day when the use of the transport system will reflect the place called Barbados. The bench mark will the day that COW Williams or a clerk for example would feel comfortable using the system. I hope we will not wait until the sore festers and burst.


  31. The Saturday Sun, May 10, 2008, pg 3, provides a snippet of news under the headline: Oil rises above US $ 126. Indeed, the Nation Newspapers, the Advocate, CBC, Starcom Network, BU, and other local and international news media have been pointing to the fact that the so-called price of oil on the world market has been for some while tending towards stratospheric levels.

    Under this current internationalized elitist corporatist-driven social, political, material and financial system, countless people of the masses and middle classes in Barbados and in many other countries across the world have been made to suffer greatly as a result of these higher “prices” that are mainly being set by nefarious economic and financial traders and their agents in physically small spaces – “major” markets and exchanges – in certain places of this world – New York, London, Toyko, etc. Therefore, these millions across the world that have been made to face the spectre of greater poverty and misery in their respective places, have had to face such owing to the many adverse effects of the deliberate and sinister dysfunctioning of the international market system for food, corn, wheat, gold, silver and for so many other commodities. This so-called global food, economic and financial crisis situation is so primarily because too many of us – of the masses and middle classes across the world – seem to think that we are that politically powerless, organizationally disarranged and ideologically indisposed to deal with these kinds of present day problems. Clearly, we are really NOT so, as much as we have long been helped to falsely believe that way, especially by many of our so-called political and academic leaders !!

    However, it has to be hypothetically argued by the PDC that were there still in place today the so-called essentially global capitalist/communist divide of years ago, that these kinds of adverse, cold, heartless market effects, would NOT now be being experienced by the masses and middle classes across the world. For, there would have been an international political movement that would have been purporting to represent and, in innumerable instances, that would have actually been providing substantial beneficial mechanisms for the development of many of the affairs of the so-called working classes and the propertyless of this world. Thus, in the aftermath of the fall of Soviet Communism, it meant that the US was the world’s sole super power, and that the most zealous and greedy of the western world’s economic and financial ideologues and practitioners had a greater chance at politically exploiting the masses and middle classes of the world more than at any time under an esentially bi-polar international relations situation. It can also be hypothetically argued by us that the fall of the Soviet empire helped meant the growth of elitist-driven political economics in Moa’s China, and the simultaneous decline of Chinese communism. More on that at a later point in time.

    However, we close on this point therefore that it is totally farfetched, irrational and propagandistic for Professor Michael Klare to pre-suppose right now that, because the US has been becoming so addicted to importing high-costing oil, while at the same time it is allowing many foreign corporates ( Arabian SWFs, etc.) to buy into much of its asset wealth, and through this process it has been appearing to have got weaker and less prosperous, that that actually means that the US is clearly losing its superpower status. Mr. Klare has to understand that for the US to seriously begin losing its super power status it would have to be right now undergoing at least seven areas of massive regressive changes:

    1) Disaggregating of the Union. Many states that are now forming the US, breaking away from the Union and seeking their own independence and nationhood from the Federation;

    2) Losing of leadership and dominance of the global democratic movement. It would have to be losing its hegemonic status as the leader of the so-called free, democratic world to other great powers right now – but to which? Communist-run China? No – and to other ideological and political dominances – Islam? whatelse? ;

    3) Losing of its dominance of major international political, economic, trading, humanitarian and military institutions. It would have to losing much control of the UN, IMF, WB, WTO, NATO to other countries. Again, to which ones? Look, the US is among the fastest to offer and send aid to cyclone-ravaged Burma;

    4) Losing its status of having the most imperial, most efficient and technologically driven military in the world. Inspite of not achieving much long term success in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is no other military that, right now, rivals the US military machine in in terms of aggressive, expansionist militarism. The more than 1 million-man Chinese military has NOT even been properly tested in this regard so far;

    5) Losing its status as leader of the global corporate sphere. But, Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco, IBM, GM, Coca-Cola, Mc Donald’s, WalMart – which are American corporate icons -and many other US multi-national corporations, still dominate the corporate world, internationally. Only the Toyota brand of Japan – the ONLY global giant in its field to do so – has now surpassed, in terms of total annual sales, the corporation that up to very recently was the biggest vehicle manufacturer in the US/world – GM;

    6) Losing of its leadership status in the technological world. But, HP, Motorola, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, etc, still dominate global technological developments. So, after these which non-US or non-US based ones will take over, right now? From Japan? China? India? right now? Losing such technological leadership to whom? Huh!! And,

    7) Losing its status as the dominant international cultural purveyor. Again, look at mega-billion US news, sports and entertainment scene – CNN, ESPN, NBA. But, again, losing this dominance to whom, right now, in this sphere?

    Sorry, the blogger Green Monkey. It just does NOT add up!!

    PDC

  32. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Ok… now that the dust has settled a bit and we have had our fun chatting about life’s greater meaning and purpose, I would like to present this MME’s worldly analysis of the energy crisis at hand.

    The projections by most pundits that the price (/value) of oil will continue its upward spiral unchecked, possibly topping $200 per barrel by yearend is entirely illogical (but not necessarily wrong as we are all guessing). Predictions like this from experts like Goldman Sachs always make me question their motives, as I am hard-pressed to accept that they actually believe this… but back on subject…

    ***Supply & Demand**
    Global oil production so far this year has grown faster than oil consumption over the same period last year… 2.5% versus 2.0%.
    Global demand is projected to increase by 1.6% over the next six months, while production increases will be around 4%.
    Consumption is on the decline in several countries (year-on-year) including the US and yes right here in Barbados, and similar trends can be expected around the world for reasons explained later.
    The global surplus crude oil production capacity at the end of 2007 (and projected for 2008) exceeds that of the previous four years and is trending upward.

    The US Energy Information Administration is a good place to start if you want to do your own research, but many statistical sources are available on the internet.

    ***Three forces responsible for soaring prices***
    So if its not your basic supply-demand dynamics at work, what’s causing the current state of affairs?
    Exxon-Mobil CEO and head of OPEC are both spot on here… (interesting their position vis a vis the Goldman Sachs of the world, but again I digress)… Three reasons for the spiraling prices: geopolitical uncertainty, speculation and a weak US dollar.

    ***Has anything like this happened before?***
    You bet! Many times, but good examples are the same oil industry in 1979 and more recently the dot-com and housing bubbles. Now admittedly conditions surrounding these “bursts” were different, but the general philosophy remains the same… consumers respond to higher prices over the long-term… sometimes this is forced through recession and sometimes it is overcome through technological innovation. It will be a combination of the two this time around. In the absence of a genuine long-term shortage of supply (i.e. not caused by embargoes, or lack of investment in production) the resulting correction is dramatic… POP!

    ***MME’s Crystal Ball***
    Accurately predicting the future is impossible, but applying reason and logic to situations involving uncertainty and risk to determine most likely outcomes is not. Actually, it is a necessary component of informed decision making.
    All the evidence suggests that we are experiencing yet another bubble. Just when this one will burst I can’t say exactly… but burst it will. Based on my predictive model I expect the ‘pop’ to take place within the next 6 months (…before prices reach $200 per barrel) with prices correcting to around $70 per barrel in under 2 years. The primary cause will be a global recession accompanied by sharp deceleration in consumption, and followed by a major resurgence in nuclear power and electric vehicles. I can already hear loud laughter from the BU family but that’s ok 🙂 …by the way, from an investor’s standpoint all of this presents some good opportunities… here are 5 companies recently added to MME’s portfolio: Altairnano, Advanced Battery Technologies, ZAP, Cameco and Fluor.

    (… was trying to see if I could out-write PDC in 5 minutes or less) LOL

  33. Straight talk Avatar

    MME:

    Where are you getting these production figures from?

    The EIA’s own website tells a different story.

    Total Global Crude Oil (and other liquids)
    2004 83.124 million barrels per day
    2005 84.631 mbpd Provisional
    2006 84.597 mbpd Provisional
    2007 84.600 mbpd Provisional

    N.B. All their recent provisional guesses have been subsequently downgraded.

    And also note these figures represent a plateau in production, not oil exports, which are actually declining as producers use more of their own oil.

    I hope you have more up-to-date and verifiable figures, MME, I would hate to have you loseing money on some broker’s sales pitch.


  34. MME

    I think that you should stick to your area of strength – critiquing Bush tea.

    I am afraid that your Macro -economic analysis is fatally flawed. It is based on a stiff recession resulting in a stabilization of supply / demand at a sustainable (albeit depressed) level.

    In a sane world, you may even be correct, however macro economics at this juncture of our existence is anything but sane.

    Indeed, economic stability itself is now build on a platform of continuous growth… something like a pyramid scheme…. and when growth is no longer possible, the whole structure will collapse catastrophically

    …sorry to disappoint MME. But the fact is that this phase one has just about run its course.
    Why would BBE have over designed beyond the required specs?

    …why fight against clear logic MME? free up your mind and go with the flow..

  35. Gabriel the Horn Blower Avatar
    Gabriel the Horn Blower

    MME
    It seems that Nibiru is going to come along anytime now (2012) ! All hail the Annunaki.

  36. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    LOL Gabe. It took you a day and a half… like you losing yuh touch 🙂

  37. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Let the records reflect that Bush tea is attempting (successfully) to draw me back into a discussion on the Master Plan, even as he observes a challenge on my right flank from his friend Straight talk.

    Faced with this coordinated attack by two of BU’s most powerful patrons, I am forced to adopt the Central Position strategy 🙂

    Straight talk, I try to use as many information sources as I can get my hands on, as oil data even from reputable sources like EIA inevitably contain some degree of guesswork… many OPEC countries for example closely guard their information on reserves not allowing outside verification… then there are millions of barrels produced that go unaccounted for in places like Iraq and Venezuela, not always because of corruption but sometimes due to poor accounting systems. One is therefore forced to mix and match information from multiple sources to create a picture that will hopefully resemble reality (a sort of data triangulation if you wish). EIA is one of the best sources for information, but some other very good ones are opec.org, usgs.gov, iea.org… then there are the hosts of investment analysts like Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. More importantly though, I think you have misinterpreted my comment which was not on specific production but production surplus (i.e. production relative to demand) for which state inventory levels is often a good indicator.

    I am glad you raised this question however as it leads to a fourth force which I overlooked in my previous post, and that is the decision of the US to increase its strategic petroleum reserve in August 2007 (in particular the doubling of light sweet crude reserves which is in heavy demand globally for its low sulphur environmental benefits). This leads to a discussion for another time… the impact that environmental alarmism is having on the energy situation.

    Bush tea, you asked “Why would BBE have over designed beyond the required specs?”. Don’t you see?… thats exactly my point!

  38. Straight talk Avatar

    MME;

    It seems strange to me that their pet poodle (EIA) is trotting out soothing statistics, which naturally leads to a sense of everything being under control and the likelihood of those evil speculators getting their fingers really burnt when oil returns to its “real” value.

    However the US govt. is filling up its strategic reserve like a man possessed.
    From the lowest point for decades last summer to 97% full now and still filling even at these “inflated” prices.

    Something stinks, we are being kept in the dark, and, as per usual, when the SHTF we’ll be the ones picking up the tab.


  39. I don’t want to scare you out of your cocoon of comfort, Micro Mock Engineer, but present facts and trends do not support your projection for a decline in oil prices. Yes, the world is going into recession, but the oil requirements of the burgeoning economies of China and India, which are determinedly playing catch up with the West will continue to put pressure on the oil producers’ ability to supply and with peak oil a stark reality, prices have nowhere to go but up.

    The url below presents some cogent and pragmatic logic which is hard to refute and may go some way in influencing your opinion.

    http://www.oildecline.com/

    Developing countries of our size are going to get squeezed and hard in the ongoing fight among the giants to extend their oil supplies as long as possible and we would be well advised to convert to solar as a matter of urgency, if we are to maintain our standard of living.

  40. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Inkwell,

    Peak oil is a good theory but the timing is all wrong (… much like another theory we have been discussing lately). It is quite obvious that oil like everything else in this world (including us) has to peak sometime… something I am sure both you and Bush tea are only too familiar with 🙂 …fortunately for oil and this MME, it will be several years before we hit ours.

    On a more serious note, that oildecline.com website is as far from “cogent and pragmatic logic” as you could possibly get… word to the wise, always be extra wary when you read arguments that begin with:

    * “The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts…”

    * “After more than fifty years of research and analysis on the subject by the most widely respected & rational scientists, it is now clear…”

    The site reads like a case study in fallacious arguments…

    Then there are the jewels like:

    * “Nuclear power plants are simply too expensive and take ten years to build…”

    …and my favorite

    * “the stone age didn’t end because of a lack of stones” LOL… no, here is what happened – civilization as we know it collapsed because the demand for stone outstripped supply, and MMEs the worldover competed for the few stones remaining resulting in “famine, terrorrism and war”.

    Looking past the production forecast guesses (/errors) made on that site, do you really believe that we will sit idly by as oil peaks and not implement alternatives?

    Check out Jevon’s “The Coal Question” written in 1865 (the entire book can be read online here: http://www.eoearth.org/article/The_Coal_Question_%28e-book%29). See any similarities? Read the “Concluding Remarks” section first if you’re short on time. At that time it was “peak coal”, and he saw a return to the dark ages for Britain within 50 years. The only thing he got right was dispelling the “energy efficiency reducing consumption” myth. I can sympathize with Jevon, who despite being a brilliant logician, could not have envisaged the transition to oil… but what excuse do we have when viable solutions are right in front of us: Nuclear and Electric Vehicles.

    What saddens me most about the current state of affairs in the world, is that so many impoverished and vulnerable people are being deprived of the most basic of needs while billions are squandered on hysteria like peak oil and global warming… but then these issues employ thousands of people and have become a thriving industry in of themselves.

    Perhaps this is the price we have to pay for allowing economists to pass themselves off as scientists 🙂

  41. Straight talk Avatar

    The Nation 20th Dec. 2007

    “As such, there is now a keen interest in the exploration of Barbados’ offshore from major oil companies such as: Hess, BHP Billiton, Exxon Mobil, Royaldutchshell and Newfield from the United States; Petrobas from Brazil; Tullow Oil from Ireland; Borders and Southern from the United Kingdom and Statfoil from Norway.

    These companies have bought seismic data packages, spending some BDS$8 million, and the Ministry of Energy and the Environment will be further releasing new data packages next year at US$2 million each.

    The companies are currently evaluating the technical data which would inform their prospective bids, due April 4, 2008.

    The winners will be announced May 5, 2008.”

    Why are we being kept in the dark about the results of the bidding process?

  42. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Straight talk,

    Not sure where the Nation got their information, but the bid submission deadline is July 6 2008, and the winners will be announced August 7 2008.

  43. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Straight talk…. following your response, I thought it might be fun to report back periodically on that free investment advice I pulled from my Shew-stone last week…

    Let’s call it the “Endgame Fund”, and assume we invested roughly $100,000 evenly across all 5 stocks starting May 15… you and BT would have to put up all of this of course, I’ll cover the trading fees and take an equal share of the spoils 🙂

    Our opening position would look like this:

    ALTI – Qty: 9,300, Price: $2.17, Trading Fee: $10, Amount: $20,191.00
    ZAAP – Qty: 26,600, Price: $0.79, Trading Fee: $10, Amount: $21,024.00
    ABAT – Qty: 5,000, Price: $3.96, Trading Fee: $10, Amount: $19,810.00
    FLR – Qty: 105, Price: $185.40, Trading Fee: $10, Amount: $19,477.00
    CCJ – Qty: 510, Price: $39.17, Trading Fee: $10, Amount: $19,986.70

    Total Initial Investment, opening date May 15, 2008: $100,488

    …so far after just two days of trading dis is how tings look:

    ALTI – Qty: 9,300, Price: $2.40, up 10.60%
    ZAAP – Qty: 26,600, Price: $0.91, up 15.19%
    ABAT – Qty: 5,000, Price: $4.19, up 5.81%
    FLR – Qty: 105, Price: $192.60, up 3.88%
    CCJ – Qty: 510, Price: $42.88, up 9.47%

    Portfolio Value, May 19, 2008: $109,087.32

    … dat’s 9.09% in the first couple days… or an annualized return of 663.37%

    Dis Endgame like it gine be real lucrative yuh 🙂

    … it’s soon time to go short on oil… wait for my call 🙂


  44. MME you seem to be flattering and spluttering to deceive. A man with ‘geek’ status conferred by the mighty BT should be playing in the option markets. Now there is where your geek status might help your cause 🙂

  45. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    Et tu, David?
    Then fall, MME…


  46. Micro Mock Engineer,

    …at that rate of return we may just be able to keep on putting gas in the old SUV.

    I suspect that $100,000 is chicken feed to both you and ST. Bush tea will just sit back in envy…

  47. Straight talk Avatar

    MME:

    This is not the time or forum to discuss making profits from a pending catastrophe, when so many are feeling the strain.

    I have put my money where my mouth is, yes.

    I forecast months ago what was, and still is, going to happen.
    Having used the interim to prepare as well as I can afford and envisage.

    My real concerns are for our people who cannot prepare , or are still under the illusion that circumstances are under the government’s control and they will be protected.

    With the minister considering new airports and second runways, and the opposition stating the country can afford to subsidise our way out of the crisis, I despair of the leadership we are being given.

    It seems our inertia will only be overcome when the lights go out, and then it will be far too late.

    Let us know when you are going short, MME, most Bajans are going short on cash right now.

    So long!

  48. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    …so that Endgame Fund seems to be going well 🙂

    ALTI up 8.29%
    ZAAP up 29.11%
    ABAT up 1.77%
    FLR down 0.11%
    CCJ up 5.87%

    CCJ discovered that some uranium from its operation may have been seeping into lake ontario and FLR’s nuclear strength remains idle for the time being, but an overall increase of 9.45% in under two weeks (241% annualized) is not too bad…
    BUT, all good things must come to an end… Time to cash in… $9,450 for a few days ‘work’… just enough to purchase that solar pv system to power the fridge 🙂 .

    “…at that rate of return we may just be able to keep on putting gas in the old SUV.”

    No Bush tea. At those rates of return, we’ll soon be plugging in our EVs.

    Here’s a glimpse of the future:
    CARS fueled by ELECTRICITY fueled by NUCLEAR / ALTERNATIVES (…oil and gas will be worth much less than they are today… and even the seemingly indispensable petrochemical industry will be eventually rendered obsolete)

    This blog is infused with contagious pessimism created by your lugubrious conjecture… now you even got Gabriel considering buying a horse and buggy 🙂

    “I forecast months ago what was, and still is, going to happen.”
    “It seems our inertia will only be overcome when the lights go out”
    “…raising donkeys and mules, plus setting up a saddlery course at SJP are moves which maybe should start to be considered.”

    Straight talk, all I can say is I do not share your pessimism.

    Look… when you really think about it, civilization and our very existence is extremely fragile. Actually, is a wonder we last so long… all it tek is one ‘stray’ asteroid, particle accelerator experiment gone bad (check out what going with the LHC at CERN from next month), eco-system collapse, biotech mishap, magnetic pole reversal, solar flare etc. etc. etc. …but obsessing over this reality is counter productive.

    Live in defiance not fear.

  49. Straight talk Avatar

    MME:

    Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

    How would your relationship with your SUV fare if gas was, say, $200 per gallon.

    I am not suggesting it will be soon, but just think for a minute of all the ways your life would be affected if it ever was.

    A sobering but interesting exercise.

    Nice to see you’re taking that profit.
    Make hay whilst the sun shines.

  50. Micro-Mock Engineer Avatar
    Micro-Mock Engineer

    “… but just think for a minute of all the ways your life would be affected if it ever was”

    I prefer to spend my spare time thinking of ways to replace SUVs with more efficient and advanced means of transport.

    … make ‘electricity’ while the sun shines… 🙂

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