Barbados General Election Watch

The coming General Election constitutionally due early next year promises to be one of the most interesting in our history.

Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart despite a feeble challenge to his leadership manifested by the effort of the Eager 11 and baring no further attempts is expected to lead the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) into the next general election.

Leader of the Opposition Owen Arthur who relinquished the leadership of the party to Mia Mottley after the election defeat in 2008 is back after winning support from his parliamentary colleagues.He too is expected to lead the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) into the next election.

The other political parties – People Empowerment Party (PEP) and People Democratic Congress) PDC – have not been able to offer a credible third party option.


  1. David; Thanks for taking me seriously.

    I think it is a good start with the bells and whistles to follow when the election is actually called. At that time the general comments could be separated from in-depth consideration of the candidates in each riding which would have its own thread within the blog.

    In the meantime anyone would be able to comment on any aspect of the coming elections that they wish under this blog. If it gets a reasonable number of hits, perhaps the parties might wish to encourage some or all of their candidates to contribute, if only to get more exposure for their positions. I see it also as a repository of all relevant information and multimedia files related to the elections. I would expect that partisan posters and others not so partisan would, by their critical comments, keep the posters and possibly candidates as well, honest or at least careful in what they spin.

    Re. some of the details that I think the blog would have. It could possibly include the full list of candidates when that stage is reached; Statistics over the last 3 or so elections of results in each constituency; bios of each candidate from their publicity data; specific promises made for the constituency; performance for the constituency by current and former candidates and their party affiliations; summaries of official polling data from the usual pollsters; Information on the candidates or their positions that might not normally be available on the regular media; etc. etc. Care would have to be taken re. moderation to ensure that slanderous information is not promulgated through the blog.

    The major thrust however would be comments by the BU family members on the various claims and counter claims made by bloggers or others and the BU vote on who the BU family think will win the constituency vote over the electioneering period. i.e. depending on the campaigning period 2 or 3 votes.

    Much of it might be hopeful thinking but I think it could provide a fairly well focused avenue to discuss the elections where all the facts, figures and fallacies would be available without too much searching.

    Again, I think it would be fun and would not interfere with the ongoing business of BU and the numerous posts on the plethora of matters that the BU family normally weigh in on.


  2. @checkit-out et al

    Hopefully the list of 30 pages can be put in place by tomorrow then we can work to build the content. Again thanks for the suggestion.


  3. David
    you are incredible! Keep up the good work.


  4. May I respectfully ask, if politicians do come on the Blog, afford them some courtesy, hard questions yes but not personal abuse. It has happened before in another place and great opportunities were lost, as the politicians just walked away.


  5. @Ping Pong

    Thanks for your kind words, BU is what it is because of contributions from everybody.

    @Yardbroom

    Correct butyou maybe surprised those throwing the mud are usually the polticians in disguise and not regular contributors.

  6. Observing (and questioning) Avatar
    Observing (and questioning)

    Well done David. Only just now I dusted off both 2008 manifestos and was weighing in considering Suckoo’s misfortune and Irene’s ill-targeted statements as reported in the papers. Hence I can comfortably say the following

    1. All BLP seats remain
    2. DLP definitely lose SJC, CCS, SMWC, CCE, COB and SGS
    3. Toss ups are SMSE, CCWC, SMW and SME and SPS

    BLP wins with 3-5 seat majority. This is of course barring any “earth shattering developments nationally or in the DLP camp. Opportunities lost and lessons learnt. We’re all the better for it.


  7. Hi Observing ( and questioning) May 6, 2012 @11:43 am

    Not in any way to dismiss your analysis but I do feel “now” the situation is very evenly balanced. The DLP have made a slight improvement in the last couple of months and have not fallen at the obstacles they encountered.

    The BLP have a few factors to overcome mainly latent feelings of unease from the last time they were in Government….not impossible to overcome. However, it is “now” too close to call, astute politicians should be working “at this time” up a gear before an election is called.

    It is now that those “important” extra three or four dozen votes can be cemented and gathered in.


  8. BU has forwarded this link to both political parties inviting the PAs of the candidates to feel free to deposit info as they see fit. In the meantime th BU family can update info as they see fit.

    Bear in mind we have separate links for the respective constituencies except a few which are under construction.

  9. Observing (and questioning) Avatar
    Observing (and questioning)

    @yardbroom.
    We agree!!! My analysis puts results “now” at 15-15. It’s the others that may make the difference. Also, I’m not as convinced that the government has “stemmed” the tide of discontent and “improvedm” we’ll see. Regarding the blp, I’m reminded of the “devil spawn” girlfriend who I always went back for “sweets” even though I know she was no good for me. Human nature tends to familiarity


  10. The DLP have made a slight improvement in the last couple of months and have not fallen at the obstacles they encountered.
    YARDBROOM, the above is your observation, but I am at a loss regarding improvements being made. Where and when may I ask? As you can see, people are keeping quiet and waiting. Clico issue is far from over. Alexandra issue is far from over, Four Seasons is far from over. Almond is the only one making progress and it have nothing to do with political decisions. Now Yardroom, I am waiting for the improvements.


  11. @All

    Need some help completing the 30:

    St. Michael North East – Mia vs ??
    St. Michael West – Michael Carrington vs ??
    St. Michael North – Toppin vs ??
    St. Philip South – Brathwaite vs ??
    St. Thomas – Forde vs ??

  12. Observing (and polling) Avatar
    Observing (and polling)

    @ david

    Need some help completing the 30:

    St. Michael North East – Mia vs *Patricia Inniss
    St. Michael West – Michael Carrington vs unknown
    St. Michael North – Toppin vs *Francis Depeiza
    St. Philip South – Brathwaite vs unknown
    St. Thomas – Forde vs *Rolerick Hinds


  13. @observing

    thanks


  14. Hi Tell me Why May 6, 2012 @ 2:47PM
    I can only give “my” observation you will give yours and who knows you may be right. I am not here to defend the DLP or the BLP.

    The obstacles to which I referred are:
    (a) The perceived threat and the ensuing battle for leadership from the group of 11.
    (b) The Alexandra School dispute, not completely settled but the school is functioning, with the possibility of a long-term permanent settlement.
    (c) A slight – yes – slight improvement in the economy only slight but the trend is up.
    This does not mean everything is rosy for the DLP it certainly is not . and I do not intend to beat any drum for them, that is not my function.

  15. Observing (and polling) Avatar
    Observing (and polling)

    @yardbroom

    A) the threat was never addressed (nor a reconciliation nor repudiation provided) so the perception is still very much there

    B) any teacher or student wpuld tell you AX is very much not settled. Any lawyer or scholar may tell you the Commission cannot settle it. And any politician or unionist would tell you that the long drawn out “battle” has only just begun…bare in mind the self inflicted wounds the PM gave himself

    C) yes the economy has upticked, but, if debt has been moved to loans, and the “feel” of the masses is financial day to day strain and if “cost of living (job 1,2 and 3)” hasn’t been even nearly addressed, economic stats stand for nought…politically speaking.

    I understand your optimism but a harsh dose of realism is what’s needed if the DLP are to regain power.


  16. Here is a useful link which can be used as a resource.

    http://www.caribbeanelections.com/elections/bb_elections.asp


  17. Hi Observing (and polling)
    I have a habit of being right on political predictions (Smile) it is yet early in this race. I am not as confident as you appear to be…do remember even a 100 days is a long time in politics.

    I remember last general election here on BU I was told I was day dreaming because of what I wrote a day before the election. On the day after it was a reality, I will leave it at that for “now”.


  18. now all we need here now is a POLL MISTER! wher in the hell is Peter WICKham. roll up your sleeves BU got a job for YOU1


  19. David; What about St Thomas? I don’t see it here.


  20. @checkit-out

    The delay is trying to find a picture of the goodly Doctor Miller. If not found by this evening will update without.


  21. The Blp seats will remain because if you aint beat them the last time you cant beat them when a swing is against you!!!!! so there are 9 so here is my winnings: St George South. St.James Cental, City, St.Michael West Central St.Michael North west, Blackett will loose Kenny WORST St Phlip South St.Michael West and I say about 2 on the tide!!!!

  22. David (not BU) Avatar
    David (not BU)

    (a) The perceived threat and the ensuing battle for leadership from the group of 11.
    ………………………………………………………

    the above comments are very shocking to me given the fact that this issue is the one that could destroy the DLP government but time will tell all.


  23. David (not BU) re your 9.49 post;

    I think that is another elephant that is currently casting a dull shadow on the DLP’s camp but that come midday, in the full glare of the election sun, has the potential to be a game changer. Freundal is making lots of mistakes and has the potential to continue in that train. That can’t be totally acceptable to the thinkers in the party. If there is further fallout from any of the numerous areas that seem to be faltering, there can be another, much more potent, Eager 11 crisis. At present the party seems to be dealing with the matter sensibly but if there are further stresses who knows if an unthinkable sandifordesque situation might recur.


  24. Interesting that PM Stuart while addressing St. Lucy constituency meeting yesterday confirmed that he read the Clico Forensic report and that the report contains nothing that merits the hullabaloo by the opposition.


  25. @DAvid
    “the report contains nothing that merits the hullabaloo by the opposition.”
    My eyes popped out and my jaw dropped when i read that too…. These guys just aren’t learning…. seriously.


  26. Observing, re your 10.32 comment;
    It also suggests that the much vaunted impression of great integrity of the man might be somewhat misplaced.


  27. Also, let us right thinking people add 1 and 1. If AX was 120 months in coming (or not coming), and 60 months belonged to the BLP, then 54-60 months also belonged to the DLP! If the PM is taking credit for a “resolution” in 4 months, he must consequently be criticising his minister and ministry for failing just as bad as the BLP during the 54 months it was under their ambit. .

    Reminds me of Irene’s statements which sound good, but casts the government in just as bad a light as teh opposition. Bad messaging, incoherent PR strategy and gung ho statements will be a thorn in the DLP’s already aching side.

    Remember the “co-leader” statement. Enough said.

    Just observing


  28. Hi David (not BU) May 7, 2012 @ 9:49 AM
    You quoted me in reference to a comment I wrote about an obstacle the DLP had overcome.
    “(a) The perceived threat and the ensuing battle for leadership from the group of 11″
    ———————————–
    You then went on to say…”The above comments are very shocking to me given the fact that this issue is the one that could destroy the DLP government but time will tell”.
    — – – – – – – –
    Pray tell me how it will destroy the DLP Government. That can only happen if the 11 are foolish enough to put such a plan into operation because they will be wiped out….the political wilderness is a dark lonely place for politicians.
    “Perhaps” only perhaps you believe in Black & White politics, to which I do not subscribe. That being the BLP is always right and The DLP always wrong or vice versa. That thinking reduces the electorate to sheep, it is a simplistic model where no effort is required to think in determining which party to vote for.

    The “lie” to that thinking is that over the years Barbados has had great political thinkers and statesmen/women of merit from both the BLP and DLP.


  29. @Yardbroom
    Quote: May I respectfully ask, if politicians do come on the Blog, afford them some courtesy, hard questions yes but not personal abuse. It has happened before in another place and great opportunities were lost, as the politicians just walked away.

    Absolutely NOT – To ask folks to modify there right to free speakblogging is old school non-sense …. the truth sometimes hurts and often the last thing politicians want to hear is the truth ….

    Politicians work for the PEOPLE … not the other way around …..


  30. Hi austin,
    May 7, 2012 @1:49Pm
    There is free speech which I am an advocate of and there is vulgar abuse of a personal nature, for my part I never use language on the BLOGS I would not use in my home. Free speech is NOT absolute in “any” society…..often Laws ensure that…you are free to do as you wish.

  31. Prodigal Son Avatar

    Observing,
    What about St Michael South? Do you think Fruendel can hold on to that seat?


  32. Speaking last night in Pie Corner at a Democratic Labour Party (DLP) St Lucy branch meeting, Stuart lashed out at his critics, who have accused him of pursuing a legal solution rather than a political solution. You know what the political solution is? Forget anything call law, forget anything call human rights. Either chase away the principal or chase away the staff; and it didn’t matter after that how much money the Government had to pay out.

    I wonder who was the Attorney General when this government was firing left, right and centre in 2008 and 2009? Integrity my ass. stupse


  33. @Prodigal
    At this point yes. Having said that Lynch hasn’t moved his chess pieces into play as yet. It could be close depending on how much resources the BLP chooses to pour down but for now…

    Advantage – Stuart.


  34. @ Yardbroom
    “(c) A slight – yes – slight improvement in the economy only slight but the trend is up.”

    Last year’s projected growth was higher than the one for this year; and if you think the deficit really falling read this excerpt from Wild Coot:

    I was perplexed to read that the percentage of deficit to GDP had fallen from 117 per cent (not 100 per cent as stated in the Central Bank report) to 70 per cent almost overnight, so I had to look for myself. The Government holds the National Insurance Funds on behalf of the people. This is similar to an old lady keeping sou sou money for her neighbours. Making the board of the National Insurance invest in Government bonds is the same as the old lady using sou sou money to shop at the supermarket. Whether or not the IMF has sanctioned that such borrowings be deducted from the deficit, this is absolute folly. It means that the Government can borrow as much of the money that it has in trust as it likes, use it to pay salaries, and it does not affect the creditworthiness of the Government or its ability to repay from taxation.


  35. On the DLP side which are the safe seats and how will this ring in the minds of the electorate come election time?


  36. The only thing worst then “political spin” and “play with the numbers to meet a political agenda is “pure incompetence” … and we in BIM getting all THREE from the current DLP administration.


  37. PM Stuart has outlived his usefulness to Barbados.


  38. Hi Enuff
    You are being mischievous you know as well as I do that projections on the economy can be altered in light of changed circumstances.

    The important factor is the trend.

    I am sure – or perhaps maybe – that just the mention of DLP and trend upwards in the same sentence you will never agree to, ah lie? I am not here to beat the DLP drum…..I call it as I see it. I like to think I have an independent mind, a free spirit, labels matter little.


  39. @ Yardbroom
    Evidence is what I depend on.


  40. I wonder if we realise, as I think the politicians do, that this coming election is a good one to lose. If the DLP wins it is likely that they will retain power for one term only and the same for the BLP. The problem is that the economy is in such a sorry mess that whichever party holds the reins of Government this time next year (If there is a next year given 2012 and all that) that winning party will have to rain down such harsh corrective measures on the country that they will be unlikely to survive past that term.

    The strategy of the current government seems to be to hope for the best and kick all the harsh decisions down the road, thus they seem to be hoping that using NIS as a piggy bank, avoiding making actionable decisions on clico, Alexandra, etc. etc. will see them through to 2013 where if they are are successful in the elections (against all the odds) they can then go about doing the things that might give rise to sustainable development.

    The problem here, however, is that the genie is unlikely to remain in the bottle for much longer and if the battle is called sometime in the first quarter of next year there will be NO possibility of them winning and so the election should really be called sooner rather than later to take advantage of the declining possibility of winning. That struggle, re. the best date for calling the election, could well be another trigger for an eager 11 type rebellion since FS has spoken indicating that he has to have a number of things in place, re. fulfillment of the DLP fulfillment of 2007 promises. I wonder if he will be convinced to change that stance, as he did for Alexandra, in the coming weeks.

    There seems to be a somewhat persistent rumour going around that FS will call the elections soon and that he will not be running in St Michael.

  41. true to form Avatar

    @David
    Have you forgotten SMNE ?


  42. @truetoform

    Thanks for the feedback. It was updated but we are having a problem adding it to the menu. Work in progress!

  43. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ DavidCheck-it
    Re Elections Watch
    Super job here this…..well worth your salt……..congrats in order !

  44. Observing (and polling) Avatar
    Observing (and polling)

    @david
    Sure sure seats (at this time based on conditions and opponents): St Lucy, St John, SMNW, CCEC, SPN, SPW, and donville innis’ seat.

    All others are potentially up for grabs (at this point).


  45. @observer

    Good picks, just thinking ahead.

    @onions

    Thanks, try and remember we are responsible for the quality of exchanges.


  46. HI Onions;

    Thanks! It was just an idea that I had which I passed on to David and he took it and ran with it.

    David is the only webmaster in Barbados who could got it to this stage so quickly by dint of expertise and almost superhuman effort. Anyone who has designed and put up a web page or even just added info to a web page would appreciate the fantastic effort that David has put into this in the last 3 or so days. Of course the BU family responded magnificently and that response suggests that it should be a resounding success.

    David should be highly commended for his effort so far but I think the best is yet to come when the actual election bells are rung.

  47. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Check-it
    I see that you are not bankrupt of ideas like some…..and the medulla oblongata…still able to conceive….From your submissions I see you are truly a man of merits that many should try to duplicate…..(a bow)


  48. St. Michael North East updated!

    We need to move to the next stage by building out the content under the respective constituencies as originally conceptualized.

    Contributors are encouraged to post links to candidate’s websites which BU will update to the respective pages.


  49. David; I looked, but couldn’t find links to relevant up-to-date info on the DLP candidates (all I saw was 2007 data) while the BLP links were more up to date (early 2012) but still not totally current. Suggest that, until the official lists and bios come out, that it may be adequate to link to the info now available on both sites and update to separate links for each riding and candidate when the parties update their information.


  50. For Facebook users it may be possible to link to some candidates facebook pages now.

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