BU Covid Dash – Is Omicron Here?

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David;  Attached are the charts for the week ending 24th December 2021. The cases and positivity charts are showing slight upticks, perhaps presaging a possible Omicron upsurge in the coming weeks. The vaccination charts are continuing to show the slow growth in vaccine uptake.  The Worldometer charts show a declining trend in deaths.  Reports on Omicron suggest that it aggressively outcompetes the other existing variants and that its effects are relatively mild thereby offering a small ray of hope for the future containment of the epidemic.

Source: Lyall Small

 

173 thoughts on “BU Covid Dash – Is Omicron Here?”


  1. “truth is it is so easy and uncomplicated.”

    does that mean you have stopped your bullshit about drinking water
    and are copying other people’s theories

    Reply ↓

  3. “This is the heaviest period of rainfall for Bahia in the last 32 years, the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters, a government agency, said on its website.”

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Well, atleast all the climate change gurus are wrong, no heatwaves and temperature rises, and much of the world is facing ice and snow.

    It will last a while and then the earth will cycle to drier warmer periods.

    Not looking good in the pacific.

    La Nina getting worser.

    We’ll see what the numbers say in January and I will make some more predictions.

    Barbados due some serious rain!!

    Reply ↓

    • Surprise surprise

      Omicron is here: CMO
      Article by Sandy Deane
      Published on
      December 30, 2021
      The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is in Barbados, Chief Medical Officer Dr Kenneth George has confirmed.
      He told journalists moments ago: “We have had confirmation of Omicron by the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) Laboratory. A single case and to date that is the only confirmed case we have.“However, I must couch that by saying that we have been doing testing, preliminary sequencing at the Best-Dos Santos Laboratory, and there is also preliminary evidence is Omicron is established in Barbados.”

      The CMO stressed there was no need to panic, noting that the country has already dealt with variants including the Delta

      The Ministry of Health has also sent “carefully selected samples” to the CARPHA lab and the results are expected in seven to ten days.

      “Once we have this information we will share it with the public,” Dr George said.
      The outbreak of the highly contagious Omicron variant has led to an explosion of infections in each country the variant has reached since it was first identified by South African researchers.
      Global health authorities have stressed that they don’t fully know how easily omicron spreads, how severe the illness it causes, or how well vaccines and drug treatments work against it.
      According to early data from the UK, infections caused by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus do not appear to be less severe than infections from Delta which has led to a surge of illness and death since August.

      Source: Barbados Today


  5. Suspect that the presence of the omicron virus is not much of a surprise. If our protocols could not stop the lesser contagious variants, why do we think they would stop omicron.
    .

    Reply ↓

    • Did anyone say we would have been able to keep out omicron? In fact both minister Bostic and the prime minister indicated recently it was about when it arrived.


  8. Mr Know It All

    GP as an alleged Doctor in Western Medicine
    you should be able to understand / comprehend how various illnesses affect immunity and can trigger off issues with underlying health conditions

    p.s. I would also give the GOP times a wide berth as it is for the crazies

    Reply ↓

  11. DavidDecember 30, 2021 5:22 PM

    Did anyone say we would have been able to keep out omicron? In fact both minister Bostic and the prime minister indicated recently it was about when it arrived.

    DavidDecember 30, 2021 8:04 PM

    247 new virus cases

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/30/247-new-virus-cases-202112302219476949/

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I never said we would be able to keep out Ohmigod.

    I reckoned it would not make a difference as the ground was drying out and cases were falling.

    Two days running suggests I may be wrong but we will see in the graphical data over the next week or so.

    May not be a blip, should soon see.

    https://imgur.com/CDTC6GA

    Reply ↓

  13. CDC warns against cruise travel

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that all travelers — even those who are vaccinated — should avoid cruises.

    In a statement, the agency said cruise lines reported 5,013 coronavirus cases on ships operating in U.S. waters between Dec. 15 and 29, a massive increase from the 162 cases reported over the previous two weeks.

    The CDC escalated the travel health notice for cruising from Level 3 to 4, its highest. Previously, the agency advised that people who were not fully vaccinated or those at increased risk of severe illness should not cruise.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/12/30/cdc-cruise-warning-avoid-omicron/

    Reply ↓

  14. SargeantDecember 30, 2021 11:53 PM

    CDC warns against cruise travel

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that all travelers — even those who are vaccinated — should avoid cruises.

    In a statement, the agency said cruise lines reported 5,013 coronavirus cases on ships operating in U.S. waters between Dec. 15 and 29, a massive increase from the 162 cases reported over the previous two weeks.

    The CDC escalated the travel health notice for cruising from Level 3 to 4, its highest. Previously, the agency advised that people who were not fully vaccinated or those at increased risk of severe illness should not cruise.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/12/30/cdc-cruise-warning-avoid-omicron/

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Q. From where do Cruise Ships get their water?

    A. Ports of call … and/or … desal!!

    Reply ↓

  19. Q. Can you inhale bacteria from water?

    A. Most people catch Legionnaires’ disease by inhaling the bacteria from water or soil.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/legionnaires-disease/symptoms-causes/syc-20351747#:~:text=Legionnaires%27%20disease%20is%20a%20severe,bacteria%20from%20water%20or%20soil.

    Q. What is Legionnaires Disease?

    A. Legionnaires’ disease is a severe form of pneumonia — lung inflammation usually caused by infection. It’s caused by a bacterium known as legionella.

    Q. What are the symptons?

    A. Symptoms
    Legionnaires’ disease usually develops two to 10 days after exposure to legionella bacteria. It frequently begins with the following signs and symptoms:

    Headache
    Muscle aches
    Fever that may be 104 F (40 C) or higher
    By the second or third day, you’ll develop other signs and symptoms that can include:

    Cough, which might bring up mucus and sometimes blood
    Shortness of breath
    Chest pain
    Gastrointestinal symptoms, such as nausea, vomiting and diarrhea
    Confusion or other mental changes
    Although Legionnaires’ disease primarily affects the lungs, it occasionally can cause infections in wounds and in other parts of the body, including the heart.

    A mild form of Legionnaires’ disease — known as Pontiac fever — can produce fever, chills, headache and muscle aches. Pontiac fever doesn’t infect your lungs, and symptoms usually clear within two to five days.

    When to see a doctor
    See your doctor if you think you’ve been exposed to legionella bacteria. Diagnosing and treating Legionnaires’ disease as soon as possible can help shorten the recovery period and prevent serious complications. For people at high risk, such as smokers or older adults, prompt treatment is critical.

    Reply ↓

  20. Q. What other disease can you think of that resembles Legionnaires Disease?

    A. ………………………………………???!!!

    Reply ↓

  22. @John
    Here is a headline that you would like “Egypt bans water pipes to fight COVID”, unfortunately for you they are not water pipes as we know them but what are known as hookahs, a type of pipe with bubbling water that people use in Middle Eastern cafes. They have even migrated to Toronto and other cities with Middle Eastern Populations.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/31/egypt-coronavirus-covid-public-health/

    Reply ↓

  24. Pulmonologist and Critical Care Specialist Dr. Pierre Kory:

    Four things I learned treating patients and fighting for medical freedom in 2021
    I distill the lessons that could lead society and health care to a better place next year

    2. Treating COVID is about more than ivermectin
    It’s easy to think of me as “the ivermectin doctor,” but that’s only because the drug is so effective in all phases of COVID-19 that it forms the core therapeutic in the protocols developed by the organization I co-founded, the FLCCC. There are, however, a whole host of other compounds that work to treat COVID-19, either on their own or in combination. All FLCCC doctors pride themselves on these combination protocols, which were carefully constructed to work in synergy.

    In addition, it’s important to recognize that colleagues such as Dr. Paul Marik and Dr. Umberto Meduri, along with myself, were early advocates for the use of steroids to treat COVID patients — a practice initially discouraged by federal health officials but which has since become the standard of care worldwide. We also had success treating patients with fluvoxamine, a widely used generic antidepressant, in addition to steroids and a number of other repurposed medicines. The protocol contributed to halving deaths in Dr. Marik’s hospital. But the hospital stepped in and banned these medicines, largely restricting their doctors to only using remdesivir; we know it doesn’t work in late phase COVID, and worse, the best studies show it actually may be harming patients.

    To show how much the U.S. has lost its way in responding to COVID-19, remdesivir is given to nearly every hospitalized patient at a cost of $3,000 per dose. There are ‘Narco’ states and there are ‘Pharma’ states and the U.S has clearly fallen into the latter category. We must fight to free ourselves from this oppression.

    (If you are asked to subscribe to Dr, Kory’s substack platform, In addition to the paid options, there is a free option at the bottom of the list.):
    https://flccc.substack.com/p/four-things-i-learned-treating-patients?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web

    Reply ↓

  25. A friend of mine mother had mild symptoms of Covid they took her to Harrison Point she got depressed and stop eating a week later she dies
    The story gets intriguing
    The release of her was yesterday that is when she died at her home
    Those people at Harrisons point think that treatment for Covid is only about medicine but it is also physchological
    That poor old lady missed her usual environment and got depressed while in that facility
    BTW she had all her shots and no underlying conditions

    Reply ↓

  26. So sad the son was a very dedicated to the mom
    Did everything for her not to contract the virus but a family member visit created the problem
    The old lady lived to a ripe old age of 103 in sound mind and good health until she went to Harrisons point and they took control of her life in a very bad way
    Yes depression kills
    When she was released yesterday she was Covid free
    One hear of the stories coming out of Harrisons
    This is another sad one that begs for answers

    Reply ↓

  27. SargeantDecember 31, 2021 10:13 PM

    @John
    Here is a headline that you would like “Egypt bans water pipes to fight COVID”, unfortunately for you they are not water pipes as we know them but what are known as hookahs, a type of pipe with bubbling water that people use in Middle Eastern cafes. They have even migrated to Toronto and other cities with Middle Eastern Populations.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/31/egypt-coronavirus-covid-public-health/

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Actually Sarge

    You are reinforcing what I am saying without having the slightest clue about what you say!!

    It is absolutely comical to watch!!

    The water in the hookah ends up as droplets which contain the virus.

    Infection is all about droplets getting into the upper respiratory tract which also happens when Muslims prepare for prayer with Wudhu.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2672364/

    “Tobacco smoke is an aerosol that contains both gaseous and suspended particulate material. The particles are largely liquid droplets containing a wide variety of condensed organic compounds. Each compound in the smoke will partition between the gas and PM phases and will always seek a state of gas/particle equilibrium [83]. Particles contain tar, water, nicotine and other alkaloids [71]. PM2.5 and PM10 are particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm, and 10 μm, respectively [69]. Mean particle size is 0.35–0.4 μm for MSS and 0.15–0.25 μm for SSS. Fresh SSS particles are smaller than MSS particles and SSS is generated at lower temperatures (Figure 4) [26]. Particulate matter would induce lung oxidative stress and impair balance between reactive oxygen species and reactive nitrogen species generation and oxidant defences” [84]. However, there are differences between the RSP (Respirable Suspended Particles) phases of ETS and MSS. This is because of different generation conditions and the fact that ETS is diluted and ages much more than MSS. “Even assuming similarities on an equal mass basis, ETS-RSP inhaled doses are estimated to be between 10,000- and 100,000-fold less than estimated average MSS-RSP doses for active smokers” [30].”

    The authorities in Egypt have stumbled on to another way in which one is almost guaranteed to catch COVID.

    Reply ↓

  28. Sharing pipes is sharing saliva Holmes
    You may like to think you are intelligent
    but you deluded fantasies are something else
    Therefore you are unworthy

    Reply ↓

  29. Another source of water droplets which can also spread the virus besides the water pipe is of course the water Toilet or more familiarly known as the Water Closet in the UK … the old WC!!

    This explains why households can be completely overtaken by COVID and why Lockdowns just do not work!!

    That’s why one of my water protocols is DO NOT USE A REST ROOM OTHER THAN YOUR OWN!!

    Reply ↓

  30. Warning
    One step forwards two step backwards
    Any talking head who promotes Nigel Farage’s nonsense has no place in Bajan UK or Amerikkkan politics business
    It’s is as bad as having Trump and Fox News in your yard

    What more can I say

    Reply ↓

  31. @John
    It seem as if you deliberately missed the point of the post.

    “The popular pipes, also known as hookahs and narghiles, are often passed between friends, potentially transmitting the virus.”

    And if I extend you argument, the water droplets from these hookahs would not be considered as drinking water.

    Reply ↓

  32. The medical fraternity is out of it’s league unable to understand the dangers these viruses are posing to the elderly
    The death of that elderly lady could have been avoided if the necessary mental/ medical approach was given or taken
    It is not easy to plant an elderly person into a new environment without understanding the person overall daily habits
    This elderly lady is released COVID free but succumbs to depression a week later and on the day of her release
    Before being release all the mental signs of depression was evident
    The sadness of this story now lends itself to how the elderly mental attitude is regarded at Harrison and if govt medical officials are equipped to pursue necessary intervention to help the elderly get used to their new environment

    Reply ↓

    • Copied from the GIS website:

      “The COVID-19 death toll has risen to 262, following the deaths of two Barbadians today, Friday, December 31.
      A 58-year-old man, who was partially vaccinated, and a 93-year-old unvaccinated woman both died this morning at the Harrison’s Point Isolation Facility.
      Minister of Health and Wellness, Lieutenant Colonel The Most Honourable Jeffrey Bostic, has extended condolences to the family and friends of the deceased.”


  33. TheOGazertsJanuary 1, 2022 9:09 AM

    @John
    It seem as if you deliberately missed the point of the post.

    “The popular pipes, also known as hookahs and narghiles, are often passed between friends, potentially transmitting the virus.”

    And if I extend you argument, the water droplets from these hookahs would not be considered as drinking water.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The major passages and structures of the upper respiratory tract include the nose or nostrils, nasal cavity, mouth, throat (pharynx), and voice box (larynx). The respiratory system is lined with a mucous membrane that secretes mucus. The mucus traps smaller particles like pollen or smoke

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Grasshopper

    From where would the water that filled the Hookahs come if not the drinking water source?!!

    Even if none of the partakers had COVID and none was shedding but the virus was present in the water, all of the partakers would potentially leave with the virus.

    Water droplets would enter the upper respiratory tract through the mouth and nose and bring the virus.

    You never setup a hookah before?

    De water comes from de tap!!

    Reply ↓

  35. In Ontario, meanwhile, public health officials reported a staggering 18,445 new cases Saturday, trouncing Friday’s record-setting tally of 16,713 new diagnoses

    Reply ↓

  36. Hants

    All you got to do in Ontario is plot the geographic locations of the cases and isolate the water supply for the area fed.

    Reply ↓

  37. Sarge

    You can return to smoking your hookah.

    Boil de water in case I am right!!.

    “While no reports on cases of COVID-19 transmission via hookah smoking or from exhaled smoke were identified, The World Health Organization (WHO) has suggested that shared smoking devices (shared cigarette or vaping device) may facilitate transmission of COVID-19 through exhaled smoke.”

    https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/main/2020/12/covid-19-rapid-review-hookah-smoking-transmission.pdf?sc_lang=en#:~:text=While%20no%20reports%20on%20cases,COVID%2D19%20through%20exhaled%20smoke.

    Conclusion
    As hookahs are often used in communal environments, the act of sharing the hookah may lead to two
    potential risk factors; close contact and shared surfaces, both of which may increase the risk of acquiring
    COVID-19. Additionally, transmission also could be facilitated by poor sanitation and inadequate
    cleaning of hookah devices. Discouraging sharing practices and use of clean device components, in
    addition to standard public health measures for COVID-19 prevention can reduce these transmission
    risks.

    Reply ↓

  38. Cut out de communal cigarette smoking though.

    Seems as though you have a greater risk if you smoke cigarettes and share with others.

    “Yasri and Wiwanitkit reported on an event where 10 persons who shared a cigarette with a person with COVID-19 later tested positive while the remainder of attendees (n=4) who did not share tested negative for COVID‑19. Although close physical contact cannot be ruled out, the authors concluded that cigarettes should not be shared as a preventative measure for COVID‑19. By analogy, based on the above, it can be inferred that mouthpiece sharing during hookah smoking is a plausible route of COVID-19 transmission.”

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  39. @ John January 2, 2022 3:07 AM
    (Quote):
    Sarge
    You can return to smoking your hookah.
    Boil de water in case I am right!!.
    (Unquote).
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Sir John the Great Pontiff on all things hydro, how come you are purposely avoiding all calls on you to pronounce, also, on the need to boil the ‘drinking’ water imported in plastic bottles from countries plagued with Covid-19?

    Isn’t the same imported water ‘bottled’ from the same source as the ‘regular’ drinking water?

    Or is the water boiled before being bottled for shipment to Barbados?

    Should Bajans also boil the plastic bottles containing the stale water only if as an additional precautionary measure to reduce the risks of contracting Covid-19, based on your now watered-down thesis?

    Reply ↓

  40. @🐇/🐰
    “Even if none of the partakers hadCOVID and none was shedding but the virus was present in the water, all of the partakers would potentially leave with the virus.”

    Simpler argument …an infected person using the hookah and then passing it and the virus to the next user.

    Wishing you a great 2022. May you find the end of this rabbit hole.

    Reply ↓

  41. @🐇/🐰
    You say one thing and then provide proof to the contrary.

    Rabbit @3:07
    “Cut out de communal cigarette smoking though.

    Seems as though you have a greater risk if you smoke cigarettes and share with others.

    “Yasri and Wiwanitkit reported on an event where 10 persons who shared a cigarette with a person with COVID-19 later tested positive while the remainder of attendees (n=4) who did not share tested negative for COVID‑19. Although close physical contact cannot be ruled out, the authors concluded that cigarettes should not be shared as a preventative measure for COVID‑19. By analogy, based on the above, it can be inferred that mouthpiece sharing during hookah smoking is a plausible route of COVID-19 transmission.”

    Exiting rabbit hole. Stay safe, my friend.

    Reply ↓

  42. What I am showing you is that maybe airborne transmission is not a real factor and most of the spread is waterborne.

    Look at the smoke that comes out of an infected smoker’s upper respiratory tract as supposedly full of the virus.

    Smoking the Hookah is a communal activity with the mouth piece passed from person to person and yet according to WHO, there is no evidence of spread.

    Smoking a cigarette and sharing it is not.

    It’s the WHO who should make you say “WHAT?”

    The WHO is actually saying smokers do not spread the virus!!

    Water must be the principal cause.

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  43. Smokers may have a greater possibility of dying from COVID IF THEY CATCH IT.

    BUT, SMOKING WITH OTHERS DOES NOT SPREAD THE VIRUS.

    That’s what the WHO and experts say.

    Reply ↓

  45. Sharing a hookah is more than smoking a cigarette. Why do you always move the goal post?

    Please share the link to the WHO part of the statement “Smoking the Hookah is a communal activity with the mouth piece passed from person to person and yet according to WHO, there is no evidence of spread.”

    Give a link that actually support the statement.

    Also… One minute WHO, CDC and FDA are jokers and in the next minute they are cited

    Reply ↓

  46. … and if you think about it, Smokers are usually confined to a small area where smoking is allowed but yet the empirical evidence is they don’t spread it among themselves.

    It is only the rare occasion when people shared the same cigarette to which the experts can point.

    That’s why masks, social distancing, lockdowns and sanitizing do not work … we all know that FOR A FACT, irrefutable evidence as wiser heads would often posit

    It is principally spread by an entirely different mechanism …. water

    That’s why BC is exploding, Israel is exploding, Europe is exploding, the UK is exploding Brazil is about to explode ….. etc. etc.

    Ohmigod is not really as infectious as it is made out to be, nor was the delta variant, nor the beta variant and remember the mu variant.

    The virus is vectored into people ‘s homes by their municipal water supplies once they become contaminated.

    Airborne spread against which all the Governments of the world have railed is really not the big issue!!

    They put our money behind a loser and the numbers show they lost!!

    Vaccinations will not halt the spread because the dosages people get through the water swamps any positive effects against spread those vaccinations may have.

    It makes far more sense to develop protocols against waterborne spread and stick to them.

    The protocols against airborne spread are important too, but will not protect you if you live in an area with contaminated water.

    The more this unfolds the more irrefutable that statement becomes.

    Reply ↓

  47. TheOGazertsJanuary 2, 2022 9:58 AM

    Sharing a hookah is more than smoking a cigarette. Why do you always move the goal post?

    Please share the link to the WHO part of the statement “Smoking the Hookah is a communal activity with the mouth piece passed from person to person and yet according to WHO, there is no evidence of spread.”

    Give a link that actually support the statement.

    Also… One minute WHO, CDC and FDA are jokers and in the next minute they are cited

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    That’s the point, the experts are not consistent!!

    Here is the link.

    https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/main/2020/12/covid-19-rapid-review-hookah-smoking-transmission.pdf?sc_lang=en#:~:text=While%20no%20reports%20on%20cases,COVID%2D19%20through%20exhaled%20smoke.

    Reply ↓

  48. HantsJanuary 1, 2022 7:04 PM

    In Ontario, meanwhile, public health officials reported a staggering 18,445 new cases Saturday, trouncing Friday’s record-setting tally of 16,713 new diagnoses

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    There is no earthly way these numbers can be attributed to not following masking protocols.

    The mia-smic theory of infection spread has been debunked a looooooong time ago.

    It is obvious there is another mechanism spreading the virus.

    I say it is water

    Reply ↓

  49. “Secondhand cigarette smoke is known to cause health problems, and although there isn’t yet scientific proof that it can spread the coronavirus and cause COVID-19, at least theoretically it’s a possibility. “Secondhand smoke can propel viruses into the air from the nose and throat,” Galiatsatos says.”

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-smoking-vaping-wildfire-smoke-and-air-pollution#:~:text=Secondhand%20cigarette%20smoke%20is%20known,and%20throat%2C%E2%80%9D%20Galiatsatos%20says.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You would think by now the experts would know.

    Reply ↓

  53. HantsJanuary 1, 2022 7:04 PM

    In Ontario, meanwhile, public health officials reported a staggering 18,445 new cases Saturday, trouncing Friday’s record-setting tally of 16,713 new diagnoses\
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Meanwhile over in Massachusetts

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/29/nation/these-charts-show-how-much-covid-19-is-expected-surge-us-massachusetts-according-projection-models/

    The New England States getting hammered too.

    Does the wind blow East to West or Est to East?

    You think maybe all these states might be getting their water from a common source?

    Reply ↓

  60. I thought it was false positives but I more think is an alternative source of COVID cases, probably cruise ships.

    The Government of Dominica (GOD) probably has weighed the situation and decided the risk is worth it.

    Looking at the numbers I can’t disagree with them.

    They are not going out of control despite the fluctuations.

    …. and the trend is down.

    Reply ↓

  61. David; You said at 11:48 am on January 1st.
    Sadly you are probably correct although some are suggesting it may be linked to Christmas and Vat free day activities.
    I think there is a distinct possibility of an imminent takeover of the Covid-19 epidemic in Barbados by the Omicron variant based on the following observations:-

    There now appears to be a consensus reporting that Omicron is the most transmissible human virus on record and that, in most countries, its effects are milder than the Delta virus it is replacing.

    Epidemics are all characterized by pathogenic microbes or viruses infecting susceptible hosts by going through a process in the host to produce new pathogens which then infect new susceptible hosts. Epidemics occur when environmental, host and pathogen conditions / factors are suitable for the disease cycle to move from one stage to another. The current factors that are inimical to the growth of the epidemic include an increasing natural population immunity plus an immunity conferred by the vaccinations giving rise to an overall reducing availability to Omicron of enough susceptible hosts to support explosive growth. This may also be partially caused by the population being more frightened of the Omicron variant and following the public health masking, washing and distancing protocols more rigorously.

    I don’t know what the UWI models are predicting but I would guess that they should be predicting maximal cases of 400 ish going down quite precipitately to sub 50 numbers within the next few weeks as Delta cases vanish and Omicron runs out of susceptible hosts.

    Epidemics have certain characteristics that can be used for predictive purposes.
    1) Slight upticks can sometimes be reasonably attributed to small events or conditions that are known to have some influence on disease spread and incidence and don’t generally last for long.
    2) Significant outbreaks can usually be attributed to events like a new aggressive variant taking over territory or a pathogen infecting a large proportion of susceptible inmates at a large institution where people might be able to move around relatively freely or a massive bus crawl type event where superspreaders infect large numbers of people at venues over a wide area. Such institutions might be large shut-in institutions like prisons or nursing homes or even rum shops.
    3) Regulatory and other by Contact tracing teams that are effective in stopping spread.

    The largest Covid-19 outbreaks in Barbados were; the Bus Crawl event of late December 2020 to mid-March 2021; The September 2021 incursion by the Delta variant; and now, what might be the beginning of a current takeover by the Omicron variant, started about 4 weeks ago.

    The attached graphs show a definite NEW wave that started around 18th December with a downturn around 1st January 2022. I suspect that that date probably marks the onset of the Omicron takeover. The Isolation/ Deaths chart indicates a possible reduction in deaths at this time.

    As you stated in your post some are attributing the current wave to gatherings related to the Christmas Season and Vat Free Day Celebrations. The small spike between 27th Nov and 6th Dec might arguably be partially attributable to Republic day activities but the caveat here is that the spike actually started before the large scale Republic Day activities and could not therefore be reasonably attributed to those activities. The small Christmas season spike in a declining Delta variant wave, also started before Christmas and was overtaken by the incoming large Omicron spike.

    John; Check Occam’s razor.

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  64. 538 people from the 2,383 tests Monday, January 3, 2022

    There were 479 new COVID-19 cases – on Tuesday, January 4, 2022, from the 2 111 tests

    Reply ↓

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