There was a time – and it still is for many – the popular management instruction was that the sole purpose of a business was to create shareholder value. For this reason financial institutions and others for decades have used this single performance indicator to determine the success of the business.

In recent years a more enlightened management theory promoted is that a company must balance the needs of ALL stakeholders which include customers, employees, suppliers and the community it serves. However from observation such a noble position is practised in the breech.

The bottomline is that business owners everywhere have expectations largely influenced by the size of the profit margin and all the flowery language in management text books will not change the thinking. Milton Friedman’s hypothesis that the only responsibility of a business is to utilize its resources to increase profits mindful of operating within the law is alive and well decades later.

In a COVID 19 world the operating and business models have been significantly compromised given the unprecedented prevailing environment. Very few companies have been unaffected. The sorry state of affairs can be confirmed in the local landscape by reviewing unaudited statements of accounts of public companies published to date. If local blue chip companies are failing to perform in the current environment what does it mean for small and medium sized businesses?

From all reports the most optimistic projection is that an effective COVID 19 treatment or vaccine will be available in early 2021. How the vaccine is distributed will then have to be prioritized. It may take several months for mass production to ramp up and distributed across the globe. The point therefore – when a vaccine is developed AND the time it takes to be distributed has implications for service and tourism dependent economies like Barbados.

At the last report Barbados is operating at 5% tourism traffic with 40 thousand unemployment claims reported to have been submitted to the NIS – the solvency of the scheme is content for another blog. The harsh reality is that in an environment of uncertainty business owners cannot effectively and effectively plan. Very few businesses after more than 10 years operating in a depressed market have access to the cash flow to ride out a protracted period of low sales activity. It means as a country we will have to find a way to stoke the circular economy. This will present a huge challenge given the fragile state of the local economy.

Surprising on an island that boast about the effectiveness of the tripartite arrangement. Head of the BCCI called out government this week. The Barbados Workers Union called out retail players. The Opposition parties and partisans to be expected are calling out government. The usual…

In this very challenging environment, Barbados continues to make good progress in implementing its ambitious and comprehensive economic reform program, while expanding critical investments in social protection. International reserves, which reached a low of US$220 million (5-6 weeks of import coverage) at end-May 2018, are now in excess of US$1 billion. All indicative targets for end-June under the EFF were met. The targets for international reserves, net domestic assets and the primary balance were met with some margin, which bodes well for meeting the end-September EFF targets.

IMF Staff Concludes Virtual Visit to Barbados

The parliament of Barbados is scheduled to resume on September 15, 2020 after prorogation. All of Barbados anticipate government’s strategy to lead the country in the short and long term will be made known when the Governor General delivers the Throne Speech. What this blogmaster knows is that once COVID 19 exist and global travel remains a trickle earning foreign exchange in the short to medium term will be impossible in significant amounts. A plan how we produce and consume must be high on the agenda. COVID 19 confirmed what many have been advocating for a long time. We need to fashion an economic model that is sustainable given the means of production located in our domain.

It is not all doom and gloom as the recent IMF Staff report concludes. We are meeting targets!

364 responses to “Barbados Economy… Next Steps”


  1. “You should research it and discover the many definitions. The one from the OECD is very special.”

    @ NorthernObserver

    http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ECO/WKP(2016)76&docLanguage=En


  2. @ Vincent
    @ Northern

    As a fellow nitpicker i need someone to direct me where I can find the globally accepted formula for calculating fiscal space.

    Surely they must be some formula out there based on GDP, Inflation, economic actviťy something tangable. Or is it a case of a personal opinion based on no formula?

    I am willing to entertain discussing any topic, but only if it is based on data. When one speaks of fiscal space how does one quantify it and place a value on it?

    So my final yearning for knowledge on this issue can be answered by a simple answer to my final question. WHAT IS THE VALUE OF THE FISCAL SPACE FOR THE BARBADOS ECONOMY AS OF JUNE 30TH IN BAJAN DOLLARS?

    Now if no one can supply this figure and it starts with a dollar sign, this means that fiscal space is nothing more than a personal opinion founded on nothing but ones gut feeling. Something like ” that meal was delicious ” (in my opinion at least)

    So unless you can reply with a dollar value and a accepted formula for calculating fiscal space, it is no more than ones personal opinion and not worthy of factoring into any discussion where numbers carry the weight and are used in the decision making process for financial planning.

    I now rest my case and await the answers to the above questions from anyone who can enlighten me using the above parameters.

    Sincerly,

    John A (nickpicker extraordinaire)😂


  3. Here is the secret formula developed by the Ministry of Finance ten years ago (now no longer secret)

    1 Fiscal Space =
    1 Mottley * Marx Brothers (Greendidge + Persaud) * 5 IMF programmes
    divided by: hurricane * pandemic * size of civil service * productivity * Chris Sinckler’s IQ

    Since under certain circumstances on of these variables could be equal to “0”, 1 Fiscal Space could be equal to infinity.


  4. I will show you what I mean is the difference between statements based on undeniable facts, as opposed to personal opinion. Here goes will only take 1 minute.

    A says the glass looks like its half full. ( the optimist)

    B says the glass looks half empty (the pessamis)

    C says the 8 oz glass is half full as it has 4 fluid ounces in it (the realist)

    Morrow of the story accept what can be substantiated by facts and data and recognise personal opinion for what it is.

    And that my friends is where i bid you all a good night.

  5. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    Sorry, it appears @Artax had a cleaner version earlier.

    @JohnA
    GIGO. They have nuff formulas, whether the data you enter is accurate is another question.

    The blinding glimpse of the obvious (BGO) is, if interest rates decrease, then government’s can borrow more, once they can find someone who will accept the risk. And lend.

    I see the blogmaster posted a piece on local bonds by a JCA operation ( is that the same one who bought out the Innes shares in the peer lending company?) where the net effect of kicking the can down the road may have the same result.

    Who determines “sustainability”?


  6. The best definition for fiscal space cannot be a specific formula. It is a principle, with the variables changing.

    Not a principle like Newton’s law. Basically the availability in the financial structure of an economy to allow for both planned and (to a certain extent) unexpected expenditures over existing budgets.

    To get a fix on it, would be akin to an actuarial assessment of revenues and liabilities, such that one understands the solvency of the organisation (country).

    So, best substitute phrase is solvency. Not liquidity (that is short term).

    Solvency is not a fixed formula, it depends on the input to the assessment being conducted. These are variable, depending on both the organisation and the current environment.

    Not sure what is so hard to understand.

    Is the country solvent or not?


  7. Barbados bonds ‘not high-risk’

    Greenidge rejects analysis of Jamaican firm

    BARBADOS’ BONDS are far from high-risk, and any suggestions that Government will have difficulty meeting these and other future debt payments are unfounded.

    Government’s senior economic advisor Dr Kevin Greenidge made this clear yesterday in response to concerns raised by Jamaican investment firm Victoria Mutual Wealth Management.

    Victoria Mutual, which categorised Barbados’ 6.5 per cent 2021 bond and 6.5 per cent 2029 bond as high-risk, recommended that investors should “underweight” them, meaning reduce their holdings of the instrument or not buy them.

    It also expressed concern about Barbados’ ability to make payments for bonds due in 2029 in light of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the economy.

    In response, Greenidge said the firm’s view was “based on weak economic and financial analysis or a failure to access the relevant data”.

    “The first unfounded claim the firm made is that the recent 6.5 per cent 2029 bond is high-risk. Nothing can be further from the truth. This bond is currently trading at 98.38 cents on the dollar, just slight below par, which is amazing in a COVID-19 crisis environment and for debt that has been recently restructured,” he said.

    Strong indication

    “The trading price is a strong indication that investors are confident in the policies being pursued by the Barbados Government and consequently our ability to repay our debt.”

    The economist explained that the price of this Barbados 2029 bond “has risen consistently since early May 2020 in spite of the pandemic and the known implications of the major reduction in global travel”.

    “The upward trend of the trading price also reflects investors’ preference for holding the Barbados bond relative to other bonds available on the market. The fact is that this trend in bond prices does not support the conclusion that our bond is high-risk,” he said.

    “Let us be clear – high-risk bonds sell at a low price, which keeps falling until someone buys them. This is in fact the opposite here; Barbados bonds are low risk. How do we know? Nobody wants to sell them off and hence, any investor must be willing to pay a high price to get them.”

    Greenidge said bond investors had confidence in the Barbados bond to the point where they were opting for it over the United States bond.

    He stressed that this “only happens if investors believe that the Barbados bond has a lower risk than the US bond. This is basic financial analysis – the bond yield on Barbados’ external debt does not in any way indicate that the instrument is under stress”.

    Greenidge also said there was no need to be concerned about Government’s ability to manage its debt between now and 2029 when the bonds mature, given that Barbados’ international reserves are at historically high levels of more than US$1 billion (more than 30 weeks of import cover).

    “This means Barbados’ capacity to make external debt payments is strong. We are projecting, as has the International Monetary Fund, that when 2029 comes around, Barbados will have roughly six times as much international reserves as is required to service our debt, and this is inclusive of all debt due,” he asserted.

    “So, there are absolutely no concerns over the country’s ability to service its debt in future years from its stock of international reserves.”

    Greenidge also reminded that “the highly successful domestic and external debt restructuring completed respectively in November 2018 and December 2019 was designed to ensure that we never return to that position again where the country is unable to service its debt”.

    “Maturities of our debt instruments were lengthened so there is sufficient time for the country to recover from the preceding tenyear recession before it has to repay these bonds. Interest rates of these new debt instruments were also reduced. Instead of paying 68 cents out of every tax dollar in debt service the Government of Barbados is now paying 22 cents.

    “This is not only more affordable, but means that we could invest the monies saved from the restructuring to grow the economy – as we were doing – and to be even in a better position to repay our debt or now more importantly, as has happened, to meet the tremendous challenges of the pandemic and the

    closure of our borders.”

    He added that the IMF and credit rating agencies “have stated . . . that our debt restructuring and our commitment to primary fiscal surpluses pre-COVID have combined to put public debt on a sound footing, and on a downward trajectory over the medium and long term”.

    “This is still their conclusion, even after we take into account the current challenges presented by the global COVID pandemic,” said Greenidge. (SC)

    Source: Nation News


  8. Moore: Critique off-target
    ECONOMIST PROFESSOR Winston Moore has tagged the rationale of Jamaican investment firm Victoria Mutual Wealth Management in labelling some Barbados Government bonds as high-risk, as relatively simplistic and somewhat like an accounting perspective.
    “The BERT (Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation) programme we are currently in, looks not just at the issue of fiscal reform, but it also looks at enhancing economic competitiveness,” Moore said.
    “If you just look at the perspective that the country will not be able to repay its debt because you had a relatively bad year, it is not the way in which you do longterm economic analysis.”
    He was commenting on the Jamaican firm’s warning that the COVID-19 pandemic would constrain Barbados’ future ability to pay bondholders, and therefore advised investors to sell/don’t buy the Barbados 6.5 per cent 2021 and 2029 series of bonds, having classified them as high-risk.
    Moore, who is deputy principal at the University of The West Indies’ Cave Hill Campus, said there were a number of changes in the BERT programme that Barbadians had been calling for for a long time that would be quite useful.
    “The main reason that a country goes through recession, particularly developing countries, is an issue in relation to spending, either from a domestic perspective or an external perspective. That has been an issue for us in the short term, but I think it will be relatively naïve to say that that will be the case for the country in the long run,” he maintained.
    Moore added that for Barbados to come through what had been one of the deepest shocks to the economy, and still have over 12 weeks of international reserves was quite special for the economy.
    “The reserves are important because they allow the flexibility to engage in spending that enhances the competitiveness for the economy and enhances economic output. Construction is a good illustration of that. We need to engage in construction to build capacity for tourism. One of the things that come along with construction spending is imports. In order to engage in this type of spending, you need reserves to allow you to engage in competitive spending,” he said.
    Moreover, Moore said, despite the economic fallout
    as a result of COVID-19, there was a significant demand for the Barbados product.
    “One of the illustrations of that is the Welcome Stamp Programme. Barbados just spoke about this Welcome Stamp Programme and we’ve made news internationally, and we seem to be attracting a number of persons on this programme, which is helping some of the hotels and persons in the tourism industry that have been having a very difficult time.
    “I am a little bit more positive for the Barbados economy. I think as soon as we can get over what has been one of the deepest shocks to the Barbados economy, I think we are going to respond very quickly and the economy will be able to repay its debt in the medium and long term,” he said. ( RA)

    Source: Nation Newspaper


  9. My name is not Judas
    I AM STILL one of the disciples.
    While I owe my experiences of the past 58 years to the facilitation of the banking fraternity, I remember well my speech when staff confronted the bank in 1976 in Jamaica. I was the first speaker.
    “Ladies and gentlemen, friends, in 1832 Barclays came to Jamaica. In that year, when a plantation was sold, the slaves on the plantation were part of the sale. Today it has not changed.”
    Neither have I. A banker is a business predator for money.
    We must be careful of how we look at banks today. In Barbados now, most of the people are struggling to survive. So are the banks. Looking at their reports, we note a serious downturn in their assets, especially their lending. They have become more security conscious even if more customers are making use of their services. Revenue is down and they are struggling to contain expenses.
    One of the major problems confronting commercial banks is the servicing of mortgages by people laid off due to the coronavirus. Having offered to allow nonpayment of interest and principal for three months, mortgagees now have to confront the lending institution. The banker too has to make decisions for survival.
    To some the decision of the banker a few months ago was like a drowning man offered a straw. Maybe without thinking some people thought it was something good – like a gift. Banks do not give gifts. Remember the merchant of Venice? While no blood will be spilt, people will be looking for holes. The banker will want his pound of flesh.
    We are reminded of the situation after 2008 when toxic mortgages brought chaos for homeowners in major cities. Maybe the first thing that mortgagees must do is to check (or have it checked) their mortgage document for any loopholes. This may either modify the mortgage document or delay decision process and buy time.
    Survival
    What can the Government do? Can it tell the banks not to foreclose? No. Is the intervention of coronavirus changing the efficacy of the BERT (Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation) programme that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) consultant and others are stoutly defending? Yes. Are we now having to choose between providing work for survival or growing our own food in order to exist under the IMF programme – shades of Jamaica that is still in the grips of the IMF? Is the BERT programme where the IMF requirement for our debt to GDP (gross domestic product) to be 60 per cent by a specific time still applicable now that our main export earner is in disarray? If the bankers decide to protect themselves can the mortgagees blame them asking for a “blai”?
    Once it is established that the bank has intentions of selling the property, do not be deceived by the poor state of the market that it would give you some form of protection. Recent offer of property sale was gobbled up in no time. This was also seen in the United States where many properties owned by the black community are now in the hands of predators. The same could happen in Barbados. There is still $9 billion in savings in the banks.
    Bankers have seen the down side of the market and they intend to survive. You see how aggressive they have been in getting everyone involved in online banking. They even gave classes. Now that this platform is well established, bankers will exploit it. You can pay your electricity, telephone, water bills and the bank will profit from you and the relevant entities; why not offer to allow you to pay land tax, motor vehicle registration, income tax and other bills owed to Government, charge customers a small charge and the Government a smaller charge than the maintenance of an “army of occupation”? What can the unions say? Your members can also pay membership fees through the bank.
    That is not all. Since many people do not need to come into the bank as they are doing business from home, the effort to send out statements for current accounts or credit cards is avoided and banks can reduce the number of branches as proximity to banking premises is no longer important.
    Since there is no need for branches everywhere, we shut down the airport branch that was established way back in 1978 even before the National Bank had a system. Closure of the Barbados Mortgage Corporation comes to mind as an example of the demise of an essential service.
    Remember that after Zeus, Poseidon and Hades killed their father Cronus, they divided the world among themselves. However, Zeus still has the thunderbolts.
    Harry Russell is a banker.

    Source: Nation Newspaper


  10. @ John A

    The concept of fiscal space did not originate with the OECD; they have simply added another definition to this rather vague idea the same way that Dr Greenidge has added his to the mix. As I have said, it means whatever the author wants it to mean.
    But, typically of BU, we go down what the regulars call the rabbit hole of defining the concept rather than look at what government intended when a technocrat (not an elected politician) came up with the idea.
    That is the Google trap. Similarly, a couple days ago I called for a redefinition of the term ‘unemployment’ and some fool Googled some article and came back and implied I was wrong to call for a new definition. Quite clearly he did not read and understand what was said.
    Then there is the Bajan trick: if you try to assume what is meant, the author then claims that is not what s/he meant. The simply test is to ask them to explain what they really mean by the concept, then once you do they go silent.
    On BU we do not ask for clarification. In fact, it is not a trick at all, but intellectual cowardice, people either incapable or unwilling to defend their ideas in public, or specifically on BU for fear of the predators.
    I will end by reminding people that the concept of fiscal space means whatever the author wants it to mean; it is like beauty, in the eyes of the beholder. To some, da Vinci’s Mona Lisa may be the pinnacle of beauty, while to an Africanist, it may be Cleopatra and to a modern man it may be Halle Berry.
    There is a big and sophisticated argument around the concept of fiscal space (check the number of times it appears in the index of major studies), and as I have said before, I am prepared to debate the issue with any of its advocates: on radio, in writing, or live. The idea is mumbo jumbo and does not help us unless the author explains his or her intentions.

  11. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    This is why our economy and country has failing all these years. Too many highly educated idiots that like to confuse simple situations with big words wunna learn in dem Masters and PhD programs wunna had to take out a second mortgage to pay for so you can feel the money was not wasted. I been dealing with alot of you with your fancy terms for years.

    Let me break the down fiscal space definition and formula into layman terms for those people like me wunna trying to confuse so we cn get back to the real problem at hand.

    Laymans Definition: Fiscal Space is a fancy term for money you have that is not tied up to pay for current or upcoming things and that you are completely free to do whatever you want with it. Its calculation can be done based on your immediate financial situation or a projection after a period of time has passed e.g. next hour, day, month, 3 months, year, 10 years, etc.

    Immediate Financial Situation Formula
    Immediate Fiscal Space = Money in the bank + Money in your wallet – all bills due – loan payments due – other expenses you have to cover

    Projection After a Period of Time Formula
    Projected Fiscal Space = Money in the bank + Money in your wallet + Total Expected Earnings over the period of time – Total Expected Bills due over the period of time – Total Loan payments due over the period of time – Total Expected Expenses over the period of time

    So based on my definition and formulas for fiscal space, you should see whether that calculation looks good, bad or otherwise is very dependent on time and how accurate your future projections are and how we manage the variables we have most control over.


  12. DavidAugust 31, 2020 4:49 AM

    Author knows the reality. But there is another reality. Just how much of a community is Barbados?

    If there is an auction and no one who turns up bids, except the incumbent owner, then the owner gets to keep his property sans mortgage, or at a reduced mortgage (from another bank).

    That is COMMUNITY. If enough turn up and frown at people, other than the incumbent owner, who bid, might that be another, unconsidered parameter?

    How much of a community is Barbados? How tall can the people stand? Tell me!

    When the incumbent owner bids $10,000 will there be a counter bid? How tall can YOU stand??

    How will the neighbours look at any potential bidders? Tell me.

    This will tell the future and whether there is a future for the average person.

    You are your destiny, it is in your hand.


  13. PS WARU might carry my point a bit further, but I would not.


  14. Barbados bonds ARE high risk. The government defaulted two years ago and is yet to reach a full and final settlement with its external creditors. That is the conventional definition of high risk in the fixed income market.
    Victoria Mutual is a well-run financial institution.


  15. @Hal, you say ”modern man it may be Halle Berry.”

    Once again I agree with you.


  16. @Critical Analyzer

    Only a couple commenters have been making a fuss about the use of the economic jargon ‘fiscal space’. In the context of BOSS sensible people understand the objective in the context of BERT. Some disagree with BERT but the criticism of the term fiscal space is a nonsense position.


  17. @Crusoe

    It is 2020, the community you and others here are familiar with from the 60s, 70s and early 80s has faded.


  18. @ Crusoe

    You are showing your age.

  19. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    @David August 31, 2020 5:17 AM
    Whether we use the term or not, all conversations about the economy boil down to managing fiscal space and keeping that number positive.


  20. @Critical Analyzer

    Agreed.


  21. In the context of BOSS sensible people understand the objective in the context of BERT. Some disagree with BERT but the criticism of the term fiscal space is a nonsense position…..(Quote)

    The author of this piece of economic illiteracy should get a Nobel Prize for being brain dead. Learning by rote has it serious limitations.


  22. DavidAugust 31, 2020 5:18 AM

    You are probably right. But then, if so, all is lost. Barbados cannot work in the form of US capitalism, that is a nonsense.

    That life cannot work in Barbados, the resources simply do not exist. Anyone who thinks so will end up chasing unicorns.

    Need a complete about turn then. If the pandemic has shown anything, it shows that the US capitalist lifestyle is unsustainable.


  23. @Crusoe

    This is why in an earlier comment the blogmaster made mention to how do we tackle the underlying (systemic) issues which have led to the current state of play.

  24. William Skinner Avatar

    @ Critical analyzer August 31, 2020 5:04 AM

    “This is why our economy and country has failing all these years. Too many highly educated idiots that like to confuse simple situations with big words wunna learn in dem Masters and PhD programs wunna had to take out a second mortgage to pay for so you can feel the money was not wasted. I been dealing with alot of you with your fancy terms for years.“

    Thank you. Another term is pseudo intellectuals . We all seem to have a penchant for pretending to be brilliant and more informed than anybody else.
    No economy can grow or be stimulated without high levels of employment. All the fancy talk about fiscal space; fit for purpose and mission critical don’t mean a single thing. The only way to create jobs is to pump what limited funds you have directly into those creating the jobs. It is called a stimulus. The same private sector that marched up and down the country two years ago, should have realized that their political adventures would have been short lived. The only excuse they have now is COVID. And that is the problem. We are afraid to be creative and innovative. We borrowing left right and centre and pretending it’s sound economic management. It is below Andy Capp economics. It’s hocus pocus crap.
    That’s why I have said on BU at least five times that we need to bail out the companies that are cash strapped but have pre COVID created sustainable jobs and show the capabilities of doing so now if given the funds. These jobs could be found in new agricultural enterprises, fishing and the creative arts. We also need to pump money into those producing services and products that can replace those we currently import. The only way we can survive is to stop talking about earning forex and start talking about saving forex. The only way to do it is by getting people back to work and ensuring that their earnings are spent on what we produce. Anybody who feels that rich people in Villas and Tourism are going to save us is living in a fools paradise. And if we lay off public servants, the economy would falter more.
    Like you correctly stated, I have also been exposed to these jokers for donkey years, who pretend they are brilliant but whenever they are seriously analysed one discovers that practically all their so-called solutions are based on eighteenth century Eurocentric thinking. In other words they want the same economic system that was based on nothing more than slavery in some form or other.
    Really now they are suffering from mental slavery.


  25. You just cannot bail out zombie companies. That is the easiest way of transferring wealth from the poor to the well to do. It calls for deeper thinking.


  26. @Hal,

    MAM to the rescue. wait for the Throne Speech


  27. “Another term is pseudo intellectuals.”

    aka low intellect half-wits.


  28. @ Greene

    The president is now drafting her Queen’s Speech. Let us give her the benefit of the doubt.


  29. William Skinner,

    Not “we all”. Some of us know that the few Economics classes we took just allow us to follow a report but not devise a plan for all of the moving and interconnected parts of an economy.

    I understand all the terms, KNOW how budgets are done, know that estimates are necessary, understand that assumptions are unavoidable.

    But I don’t have any answer in the short term. All I can offer is that all Bajans have to understand that our position in not sustainable and we need a serious rethink – a change in mindset and a getting back to BASICS.

    THIS LAZY LIFESTYLE WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO IS KILLING US. THE LONG LIVERS IN BARBADOS ARE THOSE WHO DID SOME PHYSICAL LABOUR. INSTEAD OF WATCHING TV WE NEED TO RETURN TO THE INDUSTRIOUS WAYS OF OUR GRANDPARENTS AND WORK AFTER WE COME HOME FROM WORK.


  30. “Similarly, a couple days ago I called for a redefinition of the term ‘unemployment’ and some fool Googled some article and came back and implied I was wrong to call for a new definition. Quite clearly he did not read and understand what was said.”

    I will merely state that besides being nasty, you distort the discussion. So we have a choice between a fool and a liar.


  31. @Theo

    Explain the distortion. Plse say what I got wrong or distorted.


  32. @ Critical

    If i use your formula for fiscal space starting with money in bank etc i coming out with a figure dat starting with a minus sign in front it. If it boils done to surplus revenue at year end then one can conclude only countries who run a surplus can have fiscal space. So how then can a country that has a massive annual deficit and is deep in dept to the point of having to restructure, speak of such? Freeing up a few dollars to then plough it back in debt service surely would create no net fiscal space. Anyhow to pursue this diacussion is pointless as it is clear we are chasing an invisible phantom which no one can quantify.

  33. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @William Skinner August 31, 2020 5:46 AM
    “… we need to bail out the companies that are cash strapped but have pre COVID created sustainable jobs and show the capabilities of doing so now if given the funds.”
    +++++++++++++++++
    Exactly which companies in which industries might those be? The devil is in the details.

    Cash strapped companies that are in the tourism industry?… that would be a complete waste of money because without tourism arrivals there is no way to sustain employment at those companies.

    Cash strapped companies that are in the importation and distribution industries?… that’s another complete waste of money because without consumer spending on the high margin imports they cannot sustain employment either. All the major companies in this sector are shedding employees.

    The only other industry sectors are financial services, manufacturing and media. Manufacturing is doing fine, they don’t need bailouts. Financial services likewise. Media is suffering, but they have already been cut to the bone because of technological change and the fact that Bajans wish to get the news for free via social media.

    So exactly which companies would create employment with public bailout funds? I challenge you to point some out to me.

  34. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    @William Skinner August 31, 2020 5:46 AM & @Hal Austin August 31, 2020 5:56 AM
    I agree with what you are saying with a few caveats.

    We, the citizens, have allowed and encouraged governments to have too much power and led the political class to believe they have all the solutions and that has resulted in government overstepping its bounds.

    The three roles of all governments is to
    1) Ensure every last citizen that wants it has at least one way to satisfy their most basic needs in terms of food, shelter, health and security. The way to do this is by defining our country’s standards, poverty line is and implementing the necessary regulations, laws and infrastructure development to achieve those basic need.
    2) Provide the regulatory framework to ensure people and companies with ideas and visions can turn them into reality creating opportunities and businesses with no or as little government financial support as possible.
    3) Enact controls, conditions and limits on potential market monopolies to prevent them badly damaging the country if they fail i.e. the Too Big To Fail Scenario.

    The only economic stimulus our government should be engaging in is infrastructure related projects to revitalize any failing infrastructure. Otherwise, its focus should solely be placed on cleaning up our regulations, laws and implementing process improvements at all ministries and SOEs to remove the red tape and roadblocks preventing us from moving forward.


  35. He re we go:

    @ Tron

    You talk about the unemployment rate, but this is one area where governments cook the books. How do we define unemployment. Until the 1970s unemployment was defined as anyone who wanted a job; then that year it became something called the economically active; recently, post-CoVid, it has now become people leaving payrolls, which conveniently ignores the self-employed and those working in the gig economy.
    But, official figures ignore the long-term sick, those in prisons and mental institutions, the homeless and destitute, those boys and girls on the block who do not ‘actively’ look for work, in other words, those frustrated with rejections and decide to say late in bed in the morning.
    It also ignores the bloating public sector pay roll with thousands of under-employed people and pensioners desperate for more income. Official statistics can mean what you want them to mean.

    @HA 10:25 a.m.
    A+
    @8:14
    The second half has me scratching my head. Surely you jest when you wish to include “the long term so k, those in prisons and mental institutions …”. I will (l works over here) agree that we can improve his we derive our statistics, but would ignore inclusion of the “recently died”

    To quote “M”, wheel and come again.

    @ Theo

    I am not sure if your intervention at 10.54am is meant to be part of a debate, or just a cynical remark. I will pay it the respect of assuming it is part of the discussion.
    Are you saying that people in prison should not be accounted for in unemployment figures? Or those inn mental institutions? Or those in hospitals? Who else would you omit?
    I will ignore your stupid reference to the recent dead. It is the kind of remark that comes from a certain kind of Bajan mind.

    Wrong and strong… the Bajan condition
    https://theoutline.com/post/955/why-we-exclude-prisoners-from-the-unemployment-rate


  36. @ Hal

    I would just add one thing in that our unemployment figures do not capture the under employed either. So if you were working 40 hours a week and are now only working 20, that chnge is not captured. For that reason i stay away from looking at employment numbers.


  37. @John A

    Do you agree we have unknown variables in the equation to satisfy what you are looking for? Vincent likes to use the word projections but however your massage it his projections are based on assumptions. Given the covid world in which we operate what are the best assumptions we can make understanding that there are assumptions from a zero base?


  38. Hal AustinAugust 31, 2020 5:56 AM

    You just cannot bail out zombie companies. That is the easiest way of transferring wealth from the poor to the well to do. It calls for deeper thinking.

    Agree. What did the bank bailouts in the US achieve? Bailout local companies, that is madness. Money to go into specific pockets?

    Set up a development bank to assist business startups. That is much more needed, especially with the commercial banks wanting an arm a leg and your granny, to give a loan of even $5,000.


  39. y vueltas y vueltas vamos.

  40. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    @peterlawrencethompson August 31, 2020 7:09 AM
    I don’t like the term bailout nor bailing out companies so I will use the term 0% interest loan but I am sure there is some fancy financial term for it.

    If I were to implement such a policy, any company or person wanting to apply for it would have to show me the following to be considered
    1) A workable business plan back to profitability
    2) Show me the accounting books for the last few years
    3) Agree to a possible audit(s) at anytime at the discretion of the government until the money is paid back in full.


  41. @John A

    You are right. The boys and girls on the block, those who refuse to get out of bed in the morning, and the bloated public payroll. Par t of the post Reagan/Thatcher monetary policy was a re-definition of welfare, which is still a burning issue in the US and UK. And a key part of that is denying people their benefits.
    As I said, OFFICIAL unemployment statistics deliberately under-count the real numbers. That is why Trump and Johnson can talk about creating new jobs; what they mean is reducing the official unemployment figures. Which is not the same thing.


  42. @Crusoe

    What you are suggesting is a noble approach BUT we cannot afford for the larger companies to collapse, it will destabilize an already fragile economy in the short term to medium term. It has to be a hybrid approach some will humbly suggest.


  43. @ David

    Yes i agree with you 100%. I would go a step further and say because they are so many variables and our future revenue is so uncertain, terms like that should not be used as they only serve to suggest a false sense of security.

    Dont you find it strange that neither government or Mr Clarke at the BCC, have stated how they plan to survive on a 30% fall in revenue over the next 2 years?

    Instead of throwing around phantom terms maybe someone can share that information with us. Or will that too be coming in the throne speech massaged in political correctness?

    What i am seeing here is no one wants to discuss the elephant in the room, which is how will we survive on 30% less annual revenue. What is de plan?


  44. @John A

    Edward Clarke was a member of the Jobs and Investment Council, no doubt the recommendations from that committee will flavour the Throne Speech we are eagerly awaiting to be delivered on 15 September.


  45. @David

    I hope so as August has been a disaster for most in business with the exception of those in the back to school area. Not having the usual Cropover revenue has dealt most a massive blow.


  46. The sale of icecream is a success story too 🙂


  47. @ Critical

    All of what you say is right. But missing is that government should offer debt for equity arrangements under the umbrella of a sovereign wealth fund. Those who cannot accept that offer will go their own way. We must protect taxpayers’ money.


  48. Critical Analyzer August 31, 2020 7:10 AM

    well said

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