Submitted by Nathan ‘Jolly’ Green

We have all heard of the saying “history always repeats itself.” Well the COVID 19 virus is a pandemic, just like the Spanish Flu of 1918 was a pandemic.

sick bedsLike today, in Britain, temporary hospitals were equipped; every bed in the picture has someone in it. Many in the country wore face masks, and social distancing was observed. But like today there were the unbelievers, who thought it was all a hoax, and they would never get ill, least of all die. But they could, and they did, they died by the millions.

The Spanish Flu lasted about 36months, and during that time, 500 million fell ill in the world, and between 50 to 100 million died. All those who were going to die, all those who could die, died. There were no more whom it could kill. Fit people had probably developed herd immunity, over a 3 to 5 year period. There was one significant difference between this and the Corona Virus, it killed the elderly and weak first, but it also killed people of all other ages. Some stragglers were ill for several years after that. But the susceptible had died, the old, the sick, the infirm, they all died. The fit eventually stopped being ill from it and it ultimately fizzled out. Like today there were no known potions, medicines, or vaccines.

At the time, Churches were locked down, all places where people gathered were closed, assembly was banned, and stay at home periods observed, even curfews enforced.

When the Spanish Flu first appeared in the U.S. in early March 1918, it had all the hallmarks of the seasonal Flu, albeit a highly contagious and virulent strain. One of the first registered cases was Albert Gitchell, a U.S. Army cook at Camp Funston in Kansas, who was hospitalized with a 104-degree fever. The virus spread quickly through the Army installation, home to 54,000 troops. By the end of the month, 1,100 soldiers had been hospitalized, and 38 [3%] had died after developing pneumonia.

As U.S. troops deployed en masse for the war effort in Europe [WW1], they carried the Spanish Flu with them. Throughout April and May of 1918, the virus spread like wildfire through England, France, Spain and Italy. An estimated three-quarters of the French military was infected in the spring of 1918 and as many as half of British troops. Yet the first wave of the virus didn’t appear to be particularly deadly, with symptoms like high fever and malaise usually lasting only three days. According to limited public health data from the time, mortality rates were similar to seasonal Flu.

The death rate was about 3%, the same as today’s COVID 19. People in those days died a lot easier, and they considered 3% pretty acceptable and in-line with most other infectious disease mortality rates.

Reported cases of Spanish Flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. People were fed up with being locked down and could not wait to get out, down to the pub, down to the chip shop. So by mid-summer, thinking it was all but over the people flocked everywhere, like never before.

What they did not know was viruses tend to come in waves, there was a second wave of infection following closely on the heels of the first infection. About 3.5 million people had been killed worldwide with the first strike by the virus, but it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection.

In late August 1918, military ships departed the English port city of Plymouth carrying troops unknowingly infected with this new, far deadlier strain of Spanish Flu. As these ships arrived in towns and cities like Brest in France, Boston in the United States, and Freetown in West Africa, the second wave of the global pandemic began. This second wave went on to kill 10-20% of those inflicted, and now a further 45 to 100 million were to die, and die they did.

From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish Flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu in just a month of October 1918. The first wave of the virus had killed all the worlds’ old folk and those with pre-existing illnesses. This newly mutated strain killed anyone, any age, it was unstoppable. Then it got even worse, if that was possible, a massive spike in the middle of the second wave composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life. They died like flies; no family was spared.

Not only was it shocking that healthy young men and women were dying by the millions worldwide, but it was also how they were dying. Struck with blistering fevers, nasal haemorrhaging, and pneumonia, the patients would drown in their fluid-filled lungs.

If that sounds familiar, it should. Because those dying with COVID 19 also drown on the fluid in their lungs produced by pneumonia.

What we should all fear is when they blow the whistle and call the all-clear, tell us it’s OK to go out again, that a second wave will come and catch us all unawares. Because there is a great probability of that happening, virus pandemics tend to behave like that.

For those of you that have failed to grasp why you have all been asked to use social distancing, to wear face masks, voluntary and forced self and family isolation. It’s not because they are trying to stop the illness and stop the prevailing deaths, because that is impossible.

It’s much more straightforward than that. If we all go out and about and we all get ill at the same time, they would never be able to control the rate of which we fall sick and the rate that some of us die. We will all be ill at the same time. They have to slow it down so as hospitals, funeral parlors, and undertakers can cope. If we all get sick at once, the whole system will collapse, and we will all end up dying in our beds, in the street, park benches, everywhere.

As for all the silly people who think if they go out and get the virus will then get better and will, from then on, have immunity from the disease for the future. Well, I am sorry to inform you it does not quite work like that.

Some of you will get well again, some will fully recover, but those that rapidly die will not ever get the immunity because they will be dead.

For me, when they blow the whistle and call the all clear, I am staying under lockdown. I will watch what happens first for a few weeks. Those of you that cannot wait to get out and risk becoming ill and dying, farewell, have an awesome trip.

For anyone over 60, pray that they will produce an effective vaccine by the years’ end as promised. Or they find an existing chemical antiviral drug that works on COVID 19. If they do not, it may be lockdown for some time to come.

For those of you who think I have overstated the case, take a look at this article.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

276 responses to “A Cautionary Tale: Understanding the Second and Perhaps the Third Wave”

  1. robert lucas Avatar

    I have reminded those on the BU, who spoke of things returning to normalcy with the rapid resurgence of the tourist industry, that past history has shown that these pandemics occur in more than one wave. Indeed, the second wave can be more virulent than the first. The Spanish flu, the Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu all had more than one wave. The post above re-enforces the matter


  2. All the above said gives reason to logically not understand why govt moved swiftly to open areas such as beaches were people would most likely not engaged in social distancing
    The mind likes excitement and would fight against any measures ( forbidden) when feeling excited and having an urgency to be closely engaged with its source of engagement


  3. Recently i heard a microbiologist who worked for the american govt stated that droplets from viruses can travelled as far as 36ft when airborne evidence which he says shown when test were being conducted in the San Francisco Bay
    Really dumbfounded why govt is racing against time before a vaccine can be found only to appease big corporations and put everybody lives at risk


  4. @ Mariposa

    It looks as if the president is putting public relations before public health. I recently saw a similar programme on television. Maybe even CNN. Lives must come before money, even in Barbados.


  5. Why must the two of you turn yet another blog into Mia bashing? The whole world is battling with new Covid 19 protocols so that we find a way to exist alongside the virus.


  6. In my mind the opening of beaches were to send a welcoming message to tourist
    Their is a Psychological undertone that undermines good governance that is presenting itself in govt rushed policies that only takes the self interest of big business first
    Any forwarding thinking person knowing that Barbados has problems with the Southwest sewage plant and govt allowing sick Corona virus ships to dock for weeks in Carlisle Bay would have asked for govt proof of the water as well as the soil on the beaches being tested before setting foot on the beaches
    But then again Barbadians are not proactive and are satisfied that there interest would be satisfied by sweet sounding words


  7. So who else should these problems be forward
    Certainly not you David especially all seen that your aim is to shoot down any questions asked that would placed govt policies under a microscope
    The Pandemic is a govt problems which falls under the call of duty for govt to be asked of questions as well as for full fledged scrutiny


  8. @Mariposa

    Why must the two of you turn yet another blog into Mia bashing? …(Quote)

    Ignore this nonsense. Here is something to consider. You are human and everyone is not going to agree with everything you say. Some may express a view and others may not.
    But, when one or two people constantly jump on your case, the focus inevitably turns to them. The attacks on you are not only to do with the views you express, rightly or wrongly, but speaks to a deeper psychological explanation. Some of the attackers are mental cases, but when the attacker is repeatedly the chairman, then questions MUST be asked.
    Note, there is never any counter argument, but personal attacks. Ignore him. My question is: is he funded by the Mottley government? Or has he gone native after he has been invited to dine at high table? I know the kind. They assume if top people say hi to them that they are friends.
    Finally, journalism (and social media) are common tools and camouflage trades for spies; note the disinformation arguments around the US presidency in 2016.
    I believe David @BU is paid, in cash or kind, for his pro-Mottley propaganda. Have you realised how angry and vicious he gets when you are not complimentary to the president? More so than when you are not complimentary to himself.
    Do like me, read everything he writes and try to put it in perspective. Eventually you will build a mental picture.


  9. How many beaches have been reopened in Florida?

    The public health officials continue to do a reasonable job so far by containing the virus. Until a treatment is found we have to live.

    Old people and those with co-morbidities keep their asses inside or protect themselves if they have to venture out.


  10. “In my mind the opening of beaches were to send a welcoming message to tourist.”

    @ Mariposa

    At the risk of being accused of attacking you, I want to ask you a simple question.

    COVID-19 closed borders, lockdowns and travel restrictions continue to devastate the global airline cruise industries. Thousands of planes and ships have been grounded as a result. Events, such as cricket series and other sports, Olympics, carnivals, etc have also been cancelled. People are not travelling or won’t be inclined to do so, perhaps until mid 2021.

    I know we’re dealing with your “mind,” but, taking the above into consideration, could you please explain how “the opening of beaches sends a welcoming message to tourist?”


  11. @Hal,

    i wrote this a couple weeks ago-

    quote] Greene April 25, 2020 6:27 PM

    i think the Govt should let the lock down rule stay in place until it ends on May 4 and then look to open the economy with certain businesses allowed to open under certain conditions, namely-

    everyone to wear a mask in public and at work where you are in contact with another person

    social distance to be observed in public and where possible in the workplace

    supermarkets open to all with the above restrictions and the present persons in store limitations

    same for banks and other places

    liquor shops open for purchase but not congregation

    same for food stalls

    and mechanic shops etc

    farmers and their employees with the above restrictions

    this is not an exhaustive list.

    the issue is public transport. i would impose a limitation on the amount of people who can travel in a bus with spacing between passengers and the obvious wearing of masks

    any person experiencing flu or cold symptoms not to go out in public and are to call the COVID Hotline

    schools for 5th and 6th form only at sec school. at primary school those sitting the 11 plus if that is still necessary (good time to experiment with continuous assessment and zoning). other students to study remotely if they can or in v limited classes (sec school only with students and teachers wearing masks)

    and testing and testing and mandatory quarantine

    we must look to get people back to work in a managed way, if not to keep the economy afloat, to cut out the boredom and restlessness [unquote


  12. There is of course one significant difference between Spanish Flu and COVID-19 not mentioned in the article.

    There was no shutdown/lockdown of the economy in 1918!!

    Tens of millions died and there was no lockdown, the economy continued.

    In the US, 675K died, about 10 times what is projected for COVID-19 and the economy worked as normal, actually harder to produce the weapons of war.

    WWI was being fought and America had by 1918 become a combatant.

    One similarity was that like COVID-19 in New York parades were held in Philadelphia for war bonds and resulted in the spread of the Spanish Flu there as did COVID-19 spread in New York as a result of the Chinese New Year Celebrations.

    In both instances it was mayors and city leaders who encouraged the spread.

    .. and there is possibly one other significant similarity missed in the article, it may have like COVID-19 originated in China.


  13. The death rate was about 3%, the same as today’s COVID 19. People in those days died a lot easier, and they considered 3% pretty acceptable and in-line with most other infectious disease mortality rates.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    This statistic is plain wrong!!

    COVID-19 has numerous asymptomatic sufferers who need to be excluded from the calculation to get 3%.


  14. If one keeps up with environmental news sources one would have read that fla being a tourist destination keeps abreast of testing their ocean waters
    Meanwhile keeping their citizens informed of any or all present dangers that might impact their health
    When was the last time anyone heard of govt of barbados releasing such information except to say that a named beach along the South Coast is closed
    Which invariably leads to people speculation as to why
    A govt that speaks of humanity for outsiders should show the same humane respect to its citizens
    Also Barbados has a media that doesn’t seem to care about anything other than the advertising dollar


  15. If that sounds familiar, it should. Because those dying with COVID 19 also drown on the fluid in their lungs produced by pneumonia.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    How do you die from normal flu?

    Same way as for COVID-19 and Spanish Flu, complications, often pneumonia.

    .. not the walking kind!!


  16. Artax u cannot argue with my observation given that Barbados has opened its seaports and high end Tourists with luxury yachts would be given permission to enter the island
    Hence my observation relies on govt previous actions which govt might believe go undetected
    Once the seaport is opened the next step would be an open arm welcomed to all and Sundry
    Did u not read that Carnival is ready to resume operations in August sailing out of Fla


  17. https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-do-you-die-from-flu

    “How does someone die from the flu?

    Some victims may contract a second infection while already battling the flu, like pneumonia (an infection of the air sacs of the lungs), which can be severe enough to lead to organ failure and ultimately death, Dr. Salber says. The flu can be further complicated by sepsis, a life-threatening reaction to an infection that happens when bacteria have entered the bloodstream.

    Other people may die from the flu because their immune systems are already compromised by another illness. “Getting the flu can exacerbate conditions like diabetes, asthma, and chronic lung disease,” Dr. Salber explains. “If someone with diabetes has mild renal failure, gets the flu, doesn’t keep up with hydration—which makes renal function worse—and can’t fight off the flu infection as well because they already have a lowered immune response, they can start to spiral out of control.”
    But even healthy people can die of the flu, as news reports of deaths among children often suggest. “Young kids who look really healthy may be getting overwhelmed by their own immune response,” Dr. Salber says. In some cases, the body may increase immune defenses so much that infection-fighting proteins build up in the blood and damage other organs. “For example, you can get this immune response in the lungs,” she says, which in turn makes it hard to breathe. “Kids complaining of shortness of breath is not regular with the flu.””


  18. @ David BU

    I know you could defend yourself but when I read Hal Austin’s 7:11am comment it mek me laugh because the only body on BU that does attack you is he. He does tell you how you should run your blog, what you should say or not say, call you a semi literate buffoon and other derogatory names, ask if you learn grammar and criticize everything you write.

    Everybody on BU knows he is OBSESSED with doing this EVERYDAY. He says you attack Mariposa, but nobody on BU does attack her like the way he attacks you. that is why I had to laugh at what he said in his 7:11am comment, because he was talking about himself too.

    Let me show you what I mean.

    Ignore this nonsense. Here is something to consider. You are human and everyone is not going to agree with everything you say. Some may express a view and others may not.
    But, when one or two people constantly jump on your case, the focus inevitably turns to them. The attacks on you are not only to do with the views you express, rightly or wrongly, but speaks to a deeper psychological explanation. Some of the attackers are mental cases, but when the attacker is repeatedly HAL AUSTIN, then questions MUST be asked.
    Note, there is never any counter argument, but personal attacks. Ignore him. {Quote}

    So you see what I mean? YOU BELIEVE HAL AUSTIN WAS IN HE RIGHT MIND WHEN HE WRITE THAT?

    He is not a mental case when he attack you or there is no deeper psychological explanation?

    When your attacker is repeatedly Hal Austin, then no questions must be asked?

    You realise when he attacks you there is no counter argument, but personal attacks?

    NO, HAL AUSTIN COULDN’T BE IN HE RIGHT MIND WHEN HE WRITE THAT COMMENT TO MARIPOSA.


  19. looney tunes time

  20. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David Bu at 7:24 AM

    What do old people asses got to do with the issues highlighted in the article ? I am sure young jackasses were more numerous among those that died in the Spanish Flu. Please lead from in front.

    You may recall I asked John what was the experience in the 1918 Pandemic .He never gave an adequate response. You, on the other hand, wanted ideas for a post COVID Economic Plan. Wuh Loss.!! We full of Fun and Games.


  21. @ Greene

    The fear is that the economy in major countries, and of course in developing nations, will be seriously damaged if the lockdown continues. But we must put people’s lives first.
    Even if our standard of living and economies force us to take a step back, it will not be irreversible. Some nations, ie the UK, is making a calculation that the lives of the old and infirmed are not worth damaging the economy for. This is a modern version of eugenics and is a decision for societies to make.
    Already in London at least, people are breaking the lockdown. So, it can be argued, if they are breaking the lockdown by driving around and out in parks and shopping, then they can return to work. Pubs and restaurants are still closed.
    To extend the discussion, you mention schools etc. Isn’t CoVid just fast-forwarding the way teaching is going anyway, from the bricks and mortar classroom to online? I am against that in that real formal teaching takes place in a real classroom with real participants. Continuing education will be carried out mostly online.

    .


  22. @Hal Austin May 5, 2020 7:11 AM “Or has he gone native after he has been invited to dine at high table? I know the kind. They assume if top people say hi to them that they are friends.”

    What do you mean by “gone native”?

    Why don’t you get that colonialist nonsense out of your head?

    Aren’t ALL Bajans native? So how can David “go native” if he is already born native?

    Is “native” a bad thing?

    And if “native” is bad, is its opposite “white colonial master and surrogates who are always right”?

    Stupssseee!!!


  23. @John May 5, 2020 8:23 AM “…asymptomatic sufferers”

    But John if a person is asymptomatic how can they be said to be suffering?

    i remember reading an essay once. The neighbors were complaining about a cemetery, and the people who operated the cemetery talked about the “needs” of the dead.

    People who have COVID-19, but are asymptomatic are NOT suffering.

    The dead have NO needs.


  24. “Artax u cannot argue with my observation given that Barbados has opened its seaports and high end Tourists with luxury yachts would be given permission to enter the island

    Hmmmm……

    My friend, I read the port was reopened to facilitate the delivery of commercial cargo.

    Perhaps you may want to direct me to the source of your information.


  25. My father did not go to the beach for 72 YEARS.

    Can anybody beat that record?


  26. Statistics are showing this COVID 19 PANDEMIC is a cake WALK COMPARED to the SPANISH FLU Pandemic, that is using the present data. However the second and third waves of the SPANISH FLU proved deadlier than wave one. We have yet to see if COVID 19 presents itself with future waves.

    Perhaps it’s time for BARBADOS to impliment FUTURAL TOURISM and charge furtural TAXES that earn furtural forgien currency.


  27. I am accustomed to hearing airplanes going overhead.

    I don’t know the last day I’ve heard a plane.

    To tell the truth I miss the planes. The little LIAT planes scooting off to all places Caribbean early in the morning; and the big planes from the great white north arriving in the afternoons and evenings.

    I miss the planes.

    That’s the truth.


  28. @ Greene

    Looney tunes time, what, you deceitful bitch.

    You, Baje (Baje Abroad, Dishonest Bajans) and Vincent “Like” Codrington got wunnuh head so far up Hal Austin ass that you all agree with anything that SOB says.


  29. This link is of importance as it shows the level of incompetence that govt allows big business to push a narrative seemingly profits over business
    Hence my observation in a previous comment( as) to being asked of govt messages and its alignments to what benefits the tourist industry

    https://trib.al/rNsKuZy


  30. @Robert May 5, 2020 8:40 AM “I know you could defend yourself but when I read Hal Austin’s 7:11am comment it mek me laugh because the only body on BU that does attack you is he. He does tell you how you should run your blog, what you should say or not say, call you a semi literate buffoon and other derogatory names, ask if you learn grammar and criticize everything you write.”

    people, including Hal regularly read David’s blog, Barbados Underground.

    How many people have ever read Hal’s blog “Notes from a Native Son”?


  31. @Vincent

    That comment was directed to ac and you know it. The strategy announced by the prime minster is to encourage the vulnerable to protect themselves. This includes old people.

    >

  32. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @Artax thank you for your objectivity at 8:13 AM.

    @Mariposa, it’s futile to argue with anyone’s “observations” but we can argue boldly with your or anyone’s else interpretations.

    …How can you get from the admin opening beaches (to allow Bajans to exercise and relax on our pristine beaches ) to the notion that it sent “a welcoming message to tourists” and then ridiculously link that to “Once the seaport is opened the next step would be an open arm welcomed to all and Sundry… Carnival is ready to resume operations in August sailing out of Fla”

    Where are the tourists going to come from, oh smart guy; and they will come and be quarantined for 2 weeks and then hit the beach in week 3 ??? …. Yours is the type of ridiculous, scare-mongering BS on social media of the highest level of effluent, nonsensical opinions that have ABSOLUTELY NO grounding in reason or commonsense.

    Let me repeat differently, when Gabby sang ‘Jack, don’t want me to bade pun my beach’ and to keep ‘me outta reach’ we could NEVER imagine that any other politician would EVER, EVER ban Bajans again from their lovely beaches…but here we are again due to a stranger called Covid… so that and the resulting reopening is not some Mottley plot guy…it’s a function of the virus’s impact. What’s so hard to accept about that!

    I am one of probably ONLY 10 people who actually believe the beach bans were unneeded and counter-intuitive. I would have much preferred enforcing rules (no football, cricket or congregating) and allowing Bajans to enjoy their early morn strolls or late evening relaxation on the vast stretches of beaches.

    What more lovely and stress busting place than a beautiful sandy beach in Bim!

    We all criticize .. and interrogate this admin for BS and we have all lambasted the PM and govt repeatedly on these pages re Cov19 missteps but when they are acting based on good faith and practicality one must be reasonable and step back… YOU NEVER do.

    It’s just who you are dude. … just a biased, partisan hack… as annoying as you were when you were defending shitttte flowing in our streets as just some hiccup from your incompetent masters.

    Get real, please!

  33. Freedom Crier Avatar
    Freedom Crier

    TAIWAN Eighty Miles From China : No Lockdowns, No Closed Businesses, Non-WHO Member, and Relatively Unaffected by COVID-19

    This Pandemic has provided us with a clinical trial in the Healing Power of Freedom. We can now compare two control groups in the form of two Chinese societies — One Free and Democratic, the other Under the Grip of a Brutal Totalitarian Dictatorship.

    Totalitarian China has not only been ravaged by the virus but has also spread the contagion to our shores. Free China has defeated it. The lesson is clear: COVID-19 grew in the Cesspool of Chinese Communist Tyranny.

    THE ANTIDOTE TO THE CORONAVIRUS IS FREEDOM

    Astonishingly, in spite of being only 80 miles from the coast of China with over 400,000 of its 24 million citizens working in China, as of mid-April, the country only had 400 cases of COVID-19, and only 6 deaths. And the vast majority of their 400 cases came into the country from abroad.

    All of this has happened without shutting down the country with lock downs, and with almost all of its businesses continuing to operate. Is Taiwan doing something else the rest of the world is largely missing?

    This question will no doubt be asked for months or even years into the future, but it is a question well worth asking, given the devastating effects to the economy that have resulted from more restrictive measures such as the United States took.

    The first thing to note is that while President Trump is now looking seriously at pulling out of the World Health Organization, TAIWAN WAS NEVER PART OF IT. THEY WERE NOT ALLOWED TO JOIN DUE TO THE WHO’S PRO-CHINA STANCE.

    According to the Taipei Times, Taiwan’s CDC tried to warn China and WHO on December 31, 2019 about possible human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus, while China was still denying that such transmission was possible.

    That same day, Taiwan started policies to monitor travel from China to reduce the chance of having the coronvirus come into their country. They were one of the first countries to restrict travel from China at their borders.

    Taiwan had bad experiences from the 2003 SARS (another coronavirus) outbreak in China, and as a result their hospitals were well supplied with equipment to handle any outbreaks. This SARS situation had reportedly taught them to have a healthy distrust in China and the World Health Organization to accurately report facts, and to have their own plan in place for future outbreaks.

    But unlike the U.S. and many other countries, Taiwan did not quarantine the entire nation. They focused on quarantining travellers coming in from abroad in their own homes, while the rest of the nation went about their business, with some restrictions in place such as wearing face masks, and practicing social distancing.

    It is hard to argue with their reported results so far, with so few actual cases and very few deaths. They kept the country open, and did not destroy their economy.

    We report these results as a comparison to what other actions have been taken in other countries, that have had far more disastrous results. We are not necessarily endorsing everything that Taiwan has done, just reporting the facts about their response and their results so far.

    About the only thing we do know for sure, is that the vaccine gods and their global leaders like Bill Gates and Dr. Fauci and the WHO cannot take credit for Taiwan’s success, because they never were able to successfully develop a vaccine for SARS, and they have successfully kept Taiwan out of the WHO.

    Watch the PBS News Hour report:

    Taiwan’s success in fighting COVID-19 is overshadowed by global politics


  34. (Unquote):
    To extend the discussion, you mention schools etc. Isn’t CoVid just fast-forwarding the way teaching is going anyway, from the bricks and mortar classroom to online? I am against that in that real formal teaching takes place in a real classroom with real participants. Continuing education will be carried out mostly online. (Unquote).
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Look who is talking his head off? Who else but the rote-learning copycat!

    Your Luddite attitude will not stop the way education is heading in a similar fashion to what is happening with the newspaper/tabloid business and, indeed, shopping on the ‘High’ streets.

    AI is the future for Education; not the ‘robotic-behaving’ teachers who are rarely enthused to motivate the ‘challenged’ students but only see the now dumb-down vocation as an easy means to earn a living.

    There will always be a role for some involvement by ‘human’ teachers but only that of facilitating and coordinating the ICT-based learning process.

    “Data” will no longer be just a fictional super programmed character on TV.


  35. An excellent article!

    Since Covid-19 hit Barbados I hought of it as a doomsday plague; the forerunner of the end of the Earth and a new beginning; a reincarnation of one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse; but generally as a unique occurence with no equal but here the author is essentially proving that the Spanish Flu was much worse in several respects, although it is too early to gauge the relative dreadness of the two pandemics.

    I wonder how many Bajans who post on BU were taught about the Spanish Flu at their High School in Barbados in any depth! I wasn’t, and History was the subject I liked best at O’ level.

    But the article does more than provide a more realistic level of understanding of the effects of Covid-19 and where it stands in the Pantheon of modern Pandemics, it dares us all, whatever role we have in the eventual unravelling of Covid-19, to consider the likelihood that it is really not an existential threat but one whose effects are cyclic and predictable; That there is a strong likelihood that there will more than one wave; that the current death counts might be just a small harbinger of the final count; and that we all have a role in reducing the extant and yet to come deaths.

    I also got from the article the idea that, even though it might not be an existential threat, it could still become the event that will forever define the 21st Century and mankind’s future on a global scale. Trump is key to what happens in that future and perhaps a keen observation of Trump’s triumphs and losses might yet tell a story of the grand scale of the war between good and evil and mankind’s role as pawns in that war.


  36. We may well have to live with Covid in one form or another for a while let. Life must therefore go on but with precautions. The economy must be reopened but with mask wearing, social distancing, separation panels etc being the new norm.

    The facts are the world can not lock itself away and try to wait out the disappearance of covid. That type of thinking is ludicrous to say the least. So we reopen as is being done but the social distancing and mask wearing must be enforced with heavy fines if need be.


  37. Govt narrative has always been up and ready to please big business
    Nothing will surprise me in the coming weeks and months if that approach is fully expanded and extended
    Btw has Port
    St. Charles been monitored
    Nobody date asked

  38. Freedom Crier Avatar

    NOBEL PRIZE WINNING SCIENTIST PROF MICHAEL LEVITT: LOCKDOWN IS A “HUGE MISTAKE”

    Professor Michael Levitt, who teaches structural biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.”

    And according to Levitt, coronavirus data show that sweeping lockdown measures were an overreaction that may actually backfire.

    Levitt has been analyzing the COVID-19 outbreak from a statistical perspective since January and has been remarkably accurate in his predications. The data show that the outbreak never actually grew exponentially, suggesting harsh lockdown measures, which have drastically impacted the world economy, were probably unnecessary.

    According to UnHerd:
    His observation is a simple one: that in outbreak after outbreak of this disease, a similar mathematical pattern is observable regardless of government interventions. After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential”.

    This may seem like a technical distinction, but its implications are profound. The ‘unmitigated’ scenarios modelled by (among others) Imperial College, and which tilted governments across the world into drastic action, relied on a presumption of continued exponential growth — that with a consistent R number of significantly above 1 and a consistent death rate, very quickly the majority of the population would be infected and huge numbers of deaths would be recorded. But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.

    Instead of strict lockdown orders, Levitt told UnHerd that developing “herd immunity” is a better strategy to fighting a virus like COVID-19.


  39. KERRI GOODING CREATED : 4 MAY 2020COMMUNITY
    Share to FacebookShare to TwitterShare to LinkedInShare to WhatsAppShare to MessengerShare to EmailShare to TelegramShare to More
    Beaches in Barbados were reopened today for a three-hour period and beachgoers complied with the time restrictions for the most part.

    However, swimmers and persons on the shore did not comply with the six-feet apart requirement mandated in an effort to contain the spread of COVID-19 locally. Barbados currently has 82 confirmed cases reported with 29 active cases in isolation currently.

    Speaking to the two lifeguards on duty to cover the 6 am to 9 am beach hours which commenced today, it was determined that more than 100 persons turned up for the reopening of Enterprise Beach in Christ Church.

    The female lifeguard said:

    “It looked like 500 people. Social distancing? Ha! It was normal. They were back to normal, meeting and hugging. They were making a good situation bad.”

    When Loop News walked around the location, commonly known as Miami Beach, by 9.09 am when the Task Force rolled up it was almost a ghost town with only crashing waves and a few stragglers taking photos or heading to their cars. There were a mere three beachgoers on the scene by the time an officer of the Royal Barbados Police Force did a final walkthrough after the Task Force departed the parking lot. None of the three were in the water or even near the shoreline.

    The male lifeguard said:

    “People were here before I got here and we were here from 6 am.

    “But at 9 am, the people disappeared.”

    His colleague echoed this point saying, “The beach was empty at 9 am – EMPTY!”

    Sounding like he was still in disbelief, he said, “It surprised myself. I thought we’d have to warn them.” He seemed to have been struggling with ideas on how to clear the sea when the cutoff time came, but around 8.45 am the duo said people just started leaving.

    Asked if the beach was full of familiar faces as they normally work this location, the female lifeguard said, “We saw the usuals and some we never saw.” They said the old folks who come for their sea baths regularly were present, however, what they were happy to report was that there were not a lot of children.

    “Not many children were here, and come to think of it…that was good!”

    Miami Beach reopened – Day 1 (May 4)

    Two women were taking photos of themselves in their swimsuits when the Task Force arrived. One lady told Loop News, “Yeah. It was packed. I got here around 8 am.” And like the lifeguards, she said everybody just exited and left at 9 am.

    The National Conservation Commission (NCC) bathroom facilities attendant shared similar sentiments, reiterating: “It was nuff people here this morning.”

    By 10 am, Miami Beach was serene, calm and empty completely.

    Loop news barbados


  40. @Robert,

    i was referring to John talking about his covid conspiracy nonsense but if the cap fits lol

  41. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @John
    for someone who is a mathematician you can produce some interesting comments
    “In the US, 675K died, about 10 times what is projected for COVID-19″[quote]
    was that 675K not over the +/-3 YEAR span of the SFlu. The USA is ALREADY at 10% of 675K and we are not even at TWO MONTHS since death#1. Whose projections? Even your POTUS used 80K and 100K on the weekend, The daily new cases have hovered around the 30K/day mark for three weeks. Flattening, not decline. Until decline, that 100K total is within mathematical probability by mid June 2020, 3 months from death#1 !!!! Should there be a second wave, who knows the total in a similar 3 year period?

    “In both instances it was mayors and city leaders who encouraged the spread”[quote]
    is this YOUR way of taking POTUS OUT of the equation? And what about the state Governors, haven’t they been the major players. Is the failure to not lock down sooner “encoraged”. Is the subsequent re-opening also “encouraged”.

    BTW you forget to tell us the smoking rates were higher in 1918.

  42. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ Mariposa at 11:07 AM

    Thanks for your unbiased report. It seems as if my people/ fellow Barbadians are responsible and law abiding. I am not surprised. We punch above our weight.


  43. re Trump is key to what happens in that future and perhaps a keen observation of Trump’s triumphs and losses might yet tell a story of the grand scale of the war between good and evil and mankind’s role as pawns in that war.

    WHAT A LOAD OF ABSOLUTE RUBBISH!
    the war between good and evil HAS NOTHING AT ALL TO DO WITH TRUMP
    the war between good and evil HAS BEEN GOING ON LONG BEFORE TRUMP WAS BORN, AND IF THE LORD TARRIES, IT WILL GO ON LONG BEFORE HE DEPARTS BOTH THE WHITE HOUSE AND THIS WORLD

    EVERY MAN ON EARTH HAS HAD TO PARTICIPATE IN the war between good and evil
    EVEN THE LORD JESUS WHEN ON EARTH HAD TO COMBAT the war between good and evil AS IS CLEARLY TAUGHT IN LUKE 4 & MATHEW 4

    THIS IS SOUND DOCTRINE THAT CAN NOT BE REFUTED


  44. GO ON LONG AFTER HE DEPARTS BOTH THE WHITE HOUSE AND THIS WORLD


  45. Silly Woman
    May 5, 2020 8:55 AM

    @John May 5, 2020 8:23 AM “…asymptomatic sufferers”
    But John if a person is asymptomatic how can they be said to be suffering?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    They get put in quarantine and suffer the removal of their liberties!!


  46. Dribbler
    After your long diatribe of attack
    Can u please explain or state logically how can govt enforce social distancing at social events like beaches
    The easy part is time management but one still has to be careful that with long term outings such as the opening of the beach people would stray away from govt time program

  47. Freedom Crier Avatar
    Freedom Crier

    PLEASE PLEASE CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING…

    JMAY News: China Lied, People Died (Inside China’s Death Labs: The Real Story of China’s COVID-19)

    There was this one video that’s viral around social media and a man named Benny Johnson of Turning Point USA investigated about this so-called COVID-19 of which pandemic we are facing to.

    Turning Post USA captioned this: The Chinese CoronaVirus pandemic is one of the most consequential global events in world history. Hundreds of thousands dead. Trillions in economic damage. How did this happen? Who is responsible? What you’re about to hear is a true story, backed by scientific evidence and hard facts. There are those who witnessed how this happened. People died to tell you this story. Listen to them. Otherwise, it is going to happen again.

  48. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @VC
    howling….u just pulled “a Tron”, the master ‘flipper’ in recent BU times.


  49. BTW you forget to tell us the smoking rates were higher in 1918.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    So, what were the rates back then?

    You don’t even know and look to guess!!

    If you do the digging you will find cigarette smoking begun in earnest in the 1910’s.

    Seem to remember seeing somewhere it was the addition of sugar by RJR that prevented the throat irritation people who smoked tobacco experienced that made it possible.

    Also, technology had to produce the machinery to manufacture cigarettes cheaply.

    Smoking gained acceptance among young men in the trenches in WWI.

    Young women followed in the decade of the Roaring 20’s.

    It tool off in WWII.

    By the end of WWII, 4 men in 5 smoked in Britain.

    So, by 1918 the rate may not have been nearly as high as you imagine.

    Mostly young men smoked.

    Maybe that’s why the young were harder hit than the old in the 1918 Spanish flu … and more men than women, … like COVID-19.

  50. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @ac
    “In my mind the opening of beaches were to send a welcoming message to tourist”
    tell me, how many tourists will be attracted to the 6am-9am hours? I am a late day swimmer, so it wouldn’t even appeal to me.

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