2014 Barbados’ Economic Performance
Text – Analysis of Barbados’ Current Economic Performance 
Audio – Analysis of Barbados’ Current Economic Performance 
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Text – Analysis of Barbados’ Current Economic Performance
Audio – Analysis of Barbados’ Current Economic Performance
Barbados Underground 
Economy said to have bottomed out with 2% growth projected 2015.
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Phew
What a relief
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I would like to be optimistic and say yes the economy seemed to have bottomed out…………but alas I am not.
I told my circle of friends…….. watch it, the final quarter will magically show growth and voila!!!!!! .03% growth.
Somehow and by all means necessary, this governor will manipulate the figures to show growth….he had to……to sock it to Standards and Poors.
Governor, fool yourself, not all of us believe you. If when Dr Mascoll, Ryan Straughn and Jeremy Stephen analyse the report and tell me that there was indeed growth, I would then believe the governor.
Pathetic wuss!
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Oil prices still dropping.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KM0BT20150113
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The fact that Barbados recently reviewed fuel prices does this mean we processed a purchase order recently. If so we will benefit from very low price point.
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Prodigal Son January 13, 2015 at 6:09 PM #
If when Dr Mascoll, Ryan Straughn and Jeremy Stephen analyse
Boss them is three of the biggest clowns loose in the country talking drivel to which no one pays attention. If you mention Neville Duncan, Howard even Frank Alleyne and the Trini bankers you might get traction. It is music to the ears of patriotic Bajans that growth has restarted. The Central Bank governor may not be the most polished presenter but he pulls no punches. He is more believable than the three stooges you reference. If a quarter of the projects GOB talks about come on stream that 2.% growth this year should be easily reached.
With the price of oil projected to be low for the rest of the year government must make hay while the sun shines. Use the savings to tackle the debt and deficit. Not only that free up some prices, talking to you too scrooge private sector, so people have more disposable income. Up and on resilient citizens.
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And pigs fly!
Only you would believe a proven liar! If that makes you feel good……..up and on!
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Can anyone find a Barbados Economic Review for 2013 on the Central bank website or for that matter anywhere?
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keep you bull she it numbers we will deal with the IMF ,World Bank, IDB and others, You are not the owners DLP BLP Fraud clowns,
We can have all done in a week , For we have Clear titles ,
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So far nobody has addressed the fact the economic indicators have stabilized.
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Prodigal @6.09p
Count me in that number.I listening for the truth,the whole truth and nothing but the truth.When you are dealing with pathological liars the proof of the pudding is in the eating.Sorry but I have heard too many lies from this party of non performers.
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@ Togetherness January 13, 2015 at 6:28 PM
“The Central Bank governor may not be the most polished presenter but he pulls no punches. He is more believable than the three stooges you reference. If a quarter of the projects GOB talks about come on stream that 2.% growth this year should be easily reached.”
Yes, Sir Waiting, believable alright. Just like the statistical lies and projections of stability and growth over the last 5 years.
Why should you believe a lying jackass who can’t even to this day give an account of the missing $300 million in foreign reserves that occurred in March/April 2013? Can we conclude it is hiding in the “stabilized” level of $1,052 million as at December 2014?
How come the year 2014 is just a few days in the past but yet economic data have been fully collected from the BSS and processed to allow the Guv to make such factual statements on the economy?
Let us not discuss the many projects in the pipeline since 2012.
The farrago of lies and manipulated statistics can impress you but certainly not the credit rating agencies and the IMF.
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The global economy is on the move and eventually the lag economic period will go away. But what of th structural issues in the economy we need to fix?
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Just asking again can anyone find a Barbados Economic Review for 2013 on the Central bank website or for that matter anywhere?
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despite the doom and gloom the economy will survive, the question is will the blp party survive longer enough to enjoy it
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ac
the man in the wheel chair is just the first in a long, very long line here, ……………..so careful how you pelting rocks at the BLP.
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@ prodical son
…………When Dr Mascoll, Ryan Straughn and Jeremy Stephen analyse the report and tell me that there was indeed growth, I would then believe the governor……………
Please dont put your faith in ‘men’ especially economist. You really listen to economist speak? Many cant agree with each other on many things and many have different views on what works, but everyone of them have the ‘magic answer’. They base their opinion on theoretical knowledge. But there are those two phrases that accompany theories which are “in a perfect world” and “with all things being equal”. And we do not live in a perfect world. So we can listen to what they have to say but they are not Oracles.
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The import bill has been significantly lowered by the increase in the value of the US$ while at the same time there continues to be a large government deficit which I take to mean that the Government is printing money at a greater rate than it should be. That is why there are downgrades from rating agencies. Take away the increase in value of the US$ over the prior 24 and 12 month cycles and you have a much different picture. The value of the US$ also has undoubtedly played a major part in the increase in European visitors and decrease in North American visitors.
One can also see that the Gol one flight per week schedule from Brazil is averaging just under 100 passengers on a aeroplane with about 150 seats. There has been significant subsidizing of this route without significant growth.
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Nostradamus January 13, 2015 at 10:43 PM #
“Just asking again can anyone find a Barbados Economic Review for 2013 on the Central bank website or for that matter anywhere?”
=========================================================
You can find a Barbados Economic Review for 2013 on Barbados Underground.
Review of Barbados’ Economic Performance January to June 2013 – posted on July 9, 2013
Barbados’ Economic Review January to September 2013 – posted on October 24, 2013
Or try the below link to get the Central Bank Press release for the economic report for January to June 2013
Click to access Press-Release-June_2013.pdf
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find a review from January to December 2013 on the internet or among my personal files.
I hope this information may be helpful.
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The Central Bank also published a document in January called ‘Reviving Economic Growth in Barbados‘.
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I am changing my projections for Tourists from Canada.
“The currency had been lower in the morning following comments from Bank of Canada deputy governor Timothy Lane that the collapse in oil prices is bad for Canada.”
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The economic indicators so far has been showing an upward trend which might be influenced by global forecast.however govt needs to remain focus continuing to implement policies thatsafeguard and secure the fundamentals of the economy in avoidance of future global shock
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Dr.Clyde Mascoll gave an intresting analysis today. The fiscal position cannot be said to be improving if the current account deficit is so high.
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@ David January 14, 2015 at 2:48 PM #
“Dr. Clyde Mascoll gave an interesting analysis today. The fiscal position cannot be said to be improving if the current account deficit is so high.”
I was sorry that I was unable to hear Dr. Mascoll’s analysis, because, unlike some of the other economists, he uses the Central Bank’s reports and accompanying figures to thoroughly explain what the Dr. Worrell states in his economic reviews. In my opinion, this eliminates the perception of bias.
The Central Bank Governor stating that government’s policies have resulted in reducing the fiscal deficit and his prediction of a 2% economic growth for 2015, may be viewed as good signs for Barbados.
It is common knowledge that high fiscal deficits involve high annual interest payments. These increases in the debt with the accompanying high interest rates obviously make the process unsustainable, thereby adversely affecting economic growth.
Additionally, the increases in interest rates crowds out [crowding out effect] government expenditure on essential on social programs such as infrastructural development, health, education, housing and subsidizing public transportation, since the borrowings were used to subsidize the revenue deficit and for unproductive purposes. This would also have an adverse effect on economic growth.
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What you expect from a DOOM and gloom expert like mascoll
The facts are that not only barbados going to see a reverse of past negative economic performance but the entire carribbean who have somewhat received a reprieved coming from the downward slide of oil a real juggernaut that has held these countries as economic hostage having an avalanche effect across the board
one immediate benefit and which will help to stimulate the economy are the monies which will be saved by the consumers whose monthly bills were cost and part of the high fuel charges ,
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Once again we in the PDC are calling for broad masses and middle classes of Barbados to make sure that there is a Commission of Enquiry into many of the operational and research affairs of the Central Bank of Barbados.
For, it is absolutely clear again that the Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados is – in this latest report on the statistical and numerical performances of the political economy and services industry sectors of this country for the year 2014 – putting into the public domain of this country certain figures, numbers and statistics that – contrary to what is being suggested by those same figures, numbers and statistics – are clearly NOT squaring with what is happening at the reality and substantial levels in this country.
As such, we refuse any longer to carry out any critical analysis on any so-called economic reports on such statistical and numerical performances, when it is so clear that there is a great deal of misinformation and disinformation that is contained in those same reports.
The majority of people of this country must ensure that there is such a Commission of Enquiry into such affairs at the Bank.
This is the time to ensure such.
PDC
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One of the points Mascoll appears to be making us that when you substract the borrowing from the touted 15 weeks reserves 2013 vs 2014 there was a decline in forex revenue 14 vs 13.
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AC
The price of oil has come down more than 50% in the period June 2014 to date.The Emera people have reduced their fuel surcharge from $0.46 per
kwh to $0.22 per kwh in the period August 2014 to date.BIG QUESTION for you,
your DLP Fatted Calf Brigade and in particular your Prime Minister and his Minister of Energy Darcy ‘the Quisling’ Boyce.Following the market forces and the Emera prices how come gas at the pump is not at least 50% of $3.62 in the period under review.Consumers in Barbados should be paying at a minimum
$1.81 per litre.We are paying $2.83 or $1.02 more than we should.The upshot of all this is that the taxpayers could do with that extra $1.02 disposable income which would help the economy.Instead your DLP cabinet is bloated with hangers on and, to boot you are spending lots of money flying ministers and ambassadors and high commissioners all over the globe joy riding while NCC staff suffering.
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really ! Mascotnomics don.t thing it works that way, separate bags
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gabriel a question for you from PM //
why you and the blp brigade always seem so angry at any good news that affect your country,
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Another factor we must examine is unemployment and its effect on economic growth. According to Dr. Worrell, “the average annual unemployment rate at the end of September rose to 12.5 percent, from 11.2 percent a year earlier, largely because of job losses from the fiscal consolidation programme.”
Unemployment is expected to rise this year when the government continues their fiscal consolidation programme, which will see job losses through the merger and closure of statutory corporations. Unemployment reduces economic activity and negatively impacts the government’s ability to generate income.
Additionally, unemployment results in a decrease in the demand for goods and services, because there are fewer people with disposable income to spend. As a result, low consumer demand and spending reduces profits, making it more difficult for businesses to realize profits and expand or invest, which negatively affects economic growth.
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In reality, Barbados is an over taxed society, and MoF Sinckler acknowledged this fact when, in his ministerial statement on December 16, 2014, he basically said government does not intend to impose any new taxes at this time. High taxation negatively affects both the consumer and businesses.
An increase in taxes reduces the consumer’s disposable income, resulting in a decrease in consumption. As a result, when consumption decreases, businesses earn less revenue and are unlikely to hire new employees or may lay-off existing workers as a method of reducing costs [thereby affecting economic growth].
So far, I’ve outlined ONLY THREE factors which tend to inhibit economic growth, and the government has not addressed these issues as yet. Therefore, I don’t foresee economic growth any time soon in short-term.
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@ Artaxerxes January 14, 2015 at 9:53 PM #
In reality, Barbados is an over taxed society, and MoF Sinckler acknowledged this fact when, in his ministerial statement on December 16, 2014, he basically said government does not intend to impose any new taxes at this time. High taxation negatively affects both the consumer and businesses.
An increase in taxes reduces the consumer’s disposable income, resulting in a decrease in consumption. As a result, when consumption decreases, businesses earn less revenue and are unlikely to hire new employees or may lay-off existing workers as a method of reducing costs [thereby affecting economic growth]……..
……………………………………….
You are so right about job losses. Royal Bank is getting ready to lay off more staff. In some cases, whole departments will go home at the end of March. A friend of mine told me that the bank is asking for volunteers but she will not volunteer…..let them send her. The whole problem is where do persons in their 50’s go after being laid off from the only job they have had?
This is the reality of Deliar Worrell, Chris Stinkliar and Fumble Stuart DLP world.
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Prodigal Son wrote “The whole problem is where do persons in their 50’s go after being laid off from the only job they have had?”
They go home, take a few months off and find another job.
The working world has changed. Job security does not exist. It is important to teach your children to do a good job in preparation for your next job.
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Prodigal Son January 14, 2015 at 10:23 PM #
“The whole problem is where do persons in their 50’s go after being laid off from the only job they have had?”
Yes, Prodigal, It’s sad to know that in the Caribbean society, when an individual reaches the age of 45, it is difficult to gain employment, and it is even more difficult if that person does not have any academic qualifications.
The government is suggesting those retrenched workers should consider self-employment. That suggestions sounds good on paper, but the reality is those persons between the ages of 50 and 60 years old will experience great difficulty in obtaining the necessary financial assistance to help them establish a business. One only has to remember the difficulties many parents in that age group had in trying to secure loans to finance their children’s tertiary level education. The only other option for those are at least 60 years old, is to apply for “early pension”, which comes at a reduced rate.
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AC
You remind me of the Rediffusion programme by Garner Ted Armstrong……..The good news of the World Tomorrow.Good for whom?The bloated cabinet and the Fatted Calf Brigade?Or the Mercedes driving johnnies come lately?
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Artaxerxes January 14, 2015 at 6:01 PM #
@ David January 14, 2015 at 2:48 PM #
“Dr. Clyde Mascoll gave an interesting analysis today. The fiscal position cannot be said to be improving if the current account deficit is so high.”
I am putting it to you that if two of the expat billionaires on the west coast gave not loaned Barbados 2 billion US$ to cover its debt and deficit Mascoll would say the same thing. It is further being put to you that Mascoll , Straughan and their pimps are clueless about fixing the economy. Lastly I’m putting it to you that my great grandmother was a more astute economist than Mascoll, Straghan and Stephens. Why you ask? Because she raised 14 children off 1 shilling a month picking pond grass at Vineyard Plantation in Christ Church for a white man name Thornton. That was a pure economist at work and she never owed a fellow a red cent. Mascoll opposes for opposing sake.
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Barbados given 2 billion and not have a plan to drive growth accomplishes nothing.
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@ Togetherness January 15, 2015 at 8:38 AM #
“It is further being put to you that Mascoll, Straughan and their pimps are clueless about fixing the economy. Lastly I’m putting it to you that my great grandmother was a more astute economist than Mascoll, Straghan and Stephens. Why you ask? Because she raised 14 children off 1 shilling a month picking pond grass at Vineyard Plantation in Christ Church for a white man name Thornton.”
That is your opinion, and you must be respected for expressing it.
It’s ironic that the economists who work for the international rating agencies and financial institutions [IMF, World Bank, Moody’s, etc, to whom persons like you refer to as “experts”], in their reports on the Barbados economy, have expressed views similar to those of Dr. Mascoll, Ryan Straughn, Jeremy Stephen and, in some cases, your own Dr. Frank Alleyne. I guess the international economist are opposing for opposing sake as well.
However, we must be a bit more objective and analytical when discussing these issues. If we take into consideration the government’s inability to effectively and efficiently manage the economy, the failure of the Medium Term Fiscal and Medium Term Development Strategies [please note, it was Dr. Delisle Worrell who inform Barbadians that these strategies have failed to achieve the desired objectives], the over 10 credit rating downgrades, rising fiscal deficit and the loss of investor confidence, surely you must agree that this DLP administration “and their pimps [Jeptar “physical deficit” Ince included]are clueless about fixing the economy” as well.
And if you’re correct about your great grandmother being “a more astute economist”, perhaps you should tell the prime minister to get rid of Jeptar Ince, and appoint her as a senator and the parliamentary secretary in the ministry of finance, since she may do a much better job than both him or Sinckler.
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@ Togetherness January 15, 2015 at 8:38 AM #
And another thing, you DLP sympathizers often express the view that “the handful of contributors” on BU and Brass Tacks, as well as the Nation newspapers and its columnists preaching “doom and gloom” is mainly responsible for the loss of investor confidence.
Let us look at Brass Tacks in terms of contributions. If you were a potential investor listening to Brass Tacks [and you are honest with yourself], tell me what would deter you from investing in Barbados…… a few callers preaching “doom and gloom” or hearing the Parliamentary Secretary in the Ministry of Finance, Jeptar Ince, on the program continually referring to the fiscal deficit as the “PHYSICAL DEFICIT”?
No wonder Barbados is in this present state. It harrows me with fear and wonder knowing these DLP nincompoops are all the DLP has to offer to defend them on BU.
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@ Artex
WHEN WILL DLP STOP LOOKING FOR EXCUSES??????….this trickadadian woman now runnin she mout pun Brass Tacks….was a leading instigator who used to lambase OSA Govt..evaday…she and D taximan….finding every fault and more…now she on the radio this morning talkin SHOITE? What doom n gloom what?….if people see this cuntry heading down a cliff what is wrong wid sayin so?…Dey had 7 years now to do something positive for people to reflect positive but NO…..when it din Alexandra’s it did Garbage collection or Increased Vat or mo taxes or HIGH Fuel….so are we responsible for this n that now?….Ya mean we had NINE DOWNGRADES and Dey telling we that these Intln rating agencies talkin no less than SSA garbage? We People wiil not swallow YOUR trite. Gimme a break Trini -lady….U all need to present results in order to receive PRAISE….Not before. Confidence is what Sagicor looked foe not excuses.
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@Togetherness January 13, 2015 at 6:28 PM #
Prodigal Son January 13, 2015 at 6:09 PM #
If when Dr Mascoll, Ryan Straughn and Jeremy Stephen analyse
Boss them is three of the biggest clowns loose in the country talking drivel to which no one pays attention. If you mention Neville Duncan, Howard even Frank Alleyne and the Trini bankers you might get traction. It is music to the ears of patriotic Bajans that growth has restarted. The Central Bank governor may not be the most polished presenter but he pulls no punches. He is more believable than the three stooges you reference……………………………………………
I hope you now see what I have been saying…………….the Central Bank Governor is a blasted liar.
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@ Gabriel January 15, 2015 at 8:10 AM #
AC
You remind me of the Rediffusion programme by Garner Ted Armstrong……..The good news of the World Tomorrow.Good for whom?The bloated cabinet and the Fatted Calf Brigade?Or the Mercedes driving johnnies come lately?
………………………………………………………………………………….
Gabs
Look at the front page of today’s Nation. This is to whom the legion of ac’s refer. Just a day before, workers were marching for their rights against this wicked incompetent government who sent them home without a cent.
These jackasses can hold big parties every week and enjoy themselves. Look at the jackass we have for a PM…………..the Nation capture him just right! With his mouth wide opened, laughing at the expense of the poor people whom they bribed to put them there!
These are the ones for whom life is good!
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Hants,
It is all well and good for you to say that the people should go home and look for a job elsewhere. I just have one question for you……………..look for a job where? Can they come join you in Canada?
Do you understand that these people have mortgages, children to educate and have to live daily in this over priced place.
I was in the supermarket this morning and I saw workers in the produce section having to put in boxes spoiled vegetables. I said to myself, what a waste……they prefer to price the produce high, people cannot buy the stuff and then throw them away.
To take an early pension, you have to take less!
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@ Prodi
Ole bajan sayin..”Sweet life doan last too long”…..we can say what we like…What we need is leadership…..it is playing out time and time again. Barbados is in trouble because there is no vision.
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Delisle Worrell should be arrested for impersonating a Governor of a Central Bank.
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When people look up to you for answers…. Alexandra’s teachers…”No I pass that way a long time ago…you all need to play catchup” remember?….or NCC workers…” I am sending this matter to be resolved by the Employers Tribunal”….a non-existing tribunal that is…tell me now trini, what else can people see but GLOOM?
… But no life is sweet for some… entertaining and smiling all the way to the next pay cheque ..while for others…they have not seen their pay cheque (or income tax refund) now for sometime although ardously going to work day in, day out..IS ALL DOOM ahead….and you expect them to hush??????
Now we hearing of Speaker…..dear dear me….Oh dear (shaking head)….GLOOM !
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If government’s income statement indicated there was an increase in revenue and a decrease in expenditure during the period under review, the general assumption would be that there was a reduction in the fiscal deficit.
However, the balance sheet may present a different view, especially taking government’s long-term and short-term liabilities and other outstanding commitments into consideration, such loans and associated interest, payments due to Al Barrack, the former NCC and Beautify Barbados employees, UCAL [$20M], the pharmaceutical companies for medical supplies, various individuals for land acquisitions, VAT, income tax and reverse tax credit refunds, etc.
These liabilities are financial obligations [debts] that legally bind the government to pay businesses, financial institutions or individuals, etc. And we must bear in mind that such debt has an impact on revenue, since it is from that source the obligations must be paid. External financiers and investors also take these transactions into consideration.
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@ Trini Woman
Now poor Me…..no mo pension cuz dat BIG F TIEF one Alibaba look affa he wife and 3 childrens first….CLICO say dey dun lodging me lil berry….good ting D moses doan leak…muh belly gine B to me back now….if D ole wifes and nin nin doan swin in D pot when d nite come….Trini…Ya want mo gloom n doom than that?
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@ old onion bags January 15, 2015 at 12:53 PM #
“….Trini…Ya want mo gloom n doom than that?”
Onions, you really paying attention to the Sargeant woman, aka “Trinidadian Woman”? She does get pun CBC “Talk ya Talk” wid Maureen Holder and lambast BU, VOB, the BLP and everybody else who criticizes this DLP administration, accusing them of preaching “doom and gloom”.
When the BLP did in power, she use to be pun Brass Tacks every day and was given free rein [by the DLP associated moderators] to criticize the BLP, cussing Arthur, talking ‘bout cost over runs and preaching “doom and gloom” as well. Now the shoe pun the other foot, um got she vex. Hypocrite!!!!!
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@Artax
D body I would like she to point fingers at is D current Speaker…..she doan say a word…Tekk it light Artax…..D day the bottom fall out the bucket, all like she so gine brekk first fa Couva Junction and reunite wid doubles and shark n bake all a sudden.
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onions,
Hear the Trini woman and dont hear her.
We do not have short memories…….we could well remember the OSA years when sheand the taximan lambasted the BLP on every programme. She went so far one day as to ask David Ellis how long Bajans are going to sit down and take OSA. Now we are preaching doom and gloom.
Get use to it, Miss Trini………we are going to be on your party backs day in and day out. This lackey still had the nerve to talk about cost over runs and that this is why the DLP had so many problems. The idiot is still peddling the dead king’s lies………that was one of Thompson’s lies he preached at Haggatt Hall and these a..holes still believe that to this day. Talk about giving a lie headway…..to this day, the truth has not caught up. But thanks be to God, the grim reaper caught up with the dead liar.
Miss Trini, you are one who has a seat at the table feasting on the fatted calf, so you are free to continue to defend this bunch of morons!
David Ellis surprised me when he reminded her how she used to preach doom and gloom during OSA time.
Mis Trini, can you tell us how much that road down by Cost you less is costing the taxpayers. This construction has been going on since 2008 and is not yet finished. Are there any cost overruns? Is the project still within budget?
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In today’s Nation three of our leading economists suggest the Central Bank latest report is questionable.
Jeremy Stephen, Michael Howard, Clyde Mascoll
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“In today’s Nation three of our leading economists suggest the Central Bank latest report is questionable. Jeremy Stephen, Michael Howard, Clyde Mascoll……”
I may be accused of preaching “doom and gloom” as well, but, [as I was trying to explain in my previous contributions] when Barbados has a high fiscal deficit [with accompanying high interest rates], unemployment and taxation, all of which adversely affects investment, disposable income, demand and consumption and subsequently, economic growth…….. I must agree the Central Bank’s lastest report is questionable.
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@ Artax
Wait did you hear the gentleman’s point to David E on Brass Tack…..about the different figs. Central bnk. 485,0000 .v. 508,000 Govt. Satis. Dept for tourist arrivals in 2103? His point was.. based on CB reporting a lower fig.in 2013……come 2014 figs…..there will be some growth rather than a negative one if correct fig. used….. dey cooking figures now to record growth……by any means necessary,.. must be the call.
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onions,
I heard the guy and could not believe my ears. No wonder De Liar cannot hold press conferences…..he would not be able to explain the discrepancies in his figures.
Maybe with the election out of the way, they could then let 2013 be the bad year, no wonder when the truth came to light, they could not explain the 300 million dollars which were allegedly missing.
Can you imagine any economist could be so dishonest to his profession by distorting figures just to please his political masters? I guess after being governor, he does not need to work again so he does not have to care about legacy.
Onions, I said earlier on this thread that somehow, some where, DeLiar was going to show growth for 2014. Is anyone surprised that when Standard and Poors and Moodys look at the very same figures, we end up at junk status?
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Onions
485,000 vs 508,00 is no small margin of error.
Cooking the books, or fudging the figures?
Whose numbers can you trust.
Is it any wonder that no major international hotel chain will invest its own money to buy the Sam Lords property and build a hotel; so GOB has to borrow BD$ 400 million from China Exim Bank to pay Chinese workers and suppliers to restore he nine-bedroom castle and build a 450-room hotel to be operated by international hotel chain Wyndham.
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Prodigal
Good one – DeLiar vs Sinkliar
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@Prodigal Son January 15, 2015 at 3:05 PM
“Onions, I said earlier on this thread that somehow, some where, DeLiar was going to show growth for 2014. Is anyone surprised that when Standard and Poors and Moodys look at the very same figures, we end up at junk status?”
Can’t we see that Dr. DeLiar has transmogrified from a jokey garden gnome to a serious stony-faced financial magician?
Last year he pulled magical wool over Bajan eyes when he hypnotized them with the “now you see me, now you don’t” stunt of “fly away $300 million foreign reserves, where have you gone; come $300 million, here you are safe and sound and the end of 2014”.
What about this trick he pulled out of the bag late last year? Government needs to reduce its fiscal deficit gap by $174 million for the year 2014-2015 if the IMF agreed fiscal deficit reduction target of 5% of GDP has as much chance as a snow ball in hell.
All of a sudden the gap has been closed. Every thorn is now a rose in the fiscal dream garden.
No need to do anything until April, of course!
Even Parris and Thornhill would do a better job of managing the financial affairs of the sinking State SS Barbados.
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@ miller
Can’t we see that Dr. DeLiar has transmogrified from a jokey garden gnome to a serious stony-faced financial magician?
Classic…..LOL !!!
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@ Prodigal Son January 15, 2015 at 3:05 PM #
“Can you imagine any economist could be so dishonest to his profession by distorting figures just to please his political masters?”
Prodigal, it would not be fair to Dr. Delisle to say he has been “distorting the figures, “manipulating the figures” is a better term.
A perfect example is the ministerial statement delivered by Chris Sinckler on December 14, 2014, in which he mentioned the following:
“The successful execution of such a major fiscal adjustment programme, and moving from a PRIMARY DEFICIT from -5.6% of GDP in 2013/2014 to a PRIMARY SURPLUS of 0.2% of GDP in a single financial year is by any measure a major achievement for the country, and greater than that achieved in a number of IMF programmes.”
A “FISCAL DEFICIT” occurs when government’s expenditure exceeds its revenue. The fiscal deficit has been expressed in terms of the island’s current account.
A “PRIMARY DEFICIT” is the amount by which total government expenditure exceeds revenue, EXCLUDING INTEREST PAYMENTS ON DEBT. Thus, the fiscal deficit increases significantly as a result of high interest payments on debt.
Essentially, in his statement, Sinckler is suggesting that the fiscal deficit has been reduced. However, if interest payments are excluded from the calculation, and quoting the primary deficit figure, the fiscal deficit would appear as though it has been reduced.
Sheer manipulation of figures.
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@ Prodigal Son January 15, 2015 at 3:05 PM #
So prodigal you understand how these guys manipulate the figures?
When Barbadians hear the term FISCAL DEFICIT, they immediately associate the term with expenditure exceeding revenue. On the other hand, when they hear the country has moved to a FISCAL SURPLUS, they will obviously assume that the deficit has been reduced.
As I alluded to previously, the high debt and credit rating downgrades attracts high interest rates. Hence, a fiscal deficit occurs when government expenditure [including interest rates] exceeds revenue earned [excluding loans].
However, a fiscal surplus would occur if the interest payments are subtracted from expenditure.
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@Artax
Is there not a standard way Economists agree to express on this issue whether to include/exclude interest?
On Thursday, 15 January 2015, Barbados Underground wrote:
>
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Remember the quote, ‘Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics’…
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@ David January 15, 2015 at 5:31 PM #
“Is there not a standard way Economists agree to express on this issue whether to include/exclude interest?”
That’s theoretical bullshit to be relegated to the discussion toilet of academia.
How any competent manager of public finance can ever exclude from any exercise in planning and control a real recurring cost representing almost 30% of any expenditure budget?
It’s like a person or household having a very ‘young’ mortgage but excluding the interest portion of that debt in the annual household budget in planning for their annual overseas vacation.
Interest payments are NOT discretionary costs but contractual obligations that cannot be avoided under any scenario, real or imagined.
For sure neither the credit rating agencies nor the IMF officials would entertain such diversions in financial gymnastics and hopscotch evasions of reality.
Why would you, David?
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@Miller
This discussion is reminiscent of the one the DLP and BLP engaged over the VECO built prison and amortization.
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old onion bags January 15, 2015 at 3:58 PM #
@ miller
Can’t we see that Dr. DeLiar has transmogrified from a jokey garden gnome to a serious stony-faced financial magician?
Thanks for expanding my vocabulary. You sent me running (well surfing) to Merriam-Webster, which says
s
Definition of TRANSMOGRIFY
The Guv’ transmogrification must fall under grotesque.
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Miller, Artaxerxes
It is plain to see how Standard and Poors look at these same figures, they have to downgrade Barbados. Why does Dr Deliar and Stinkliar think that they can fool educated people.
Look how you and Artaxerxes have simplified this info for us on BU. I wondered why we did not hear anything else about the 174 million dollar gap they had to plug but alas………they did in true Deliar and Stinkliar style!
Yet we have an idiot for a PM who does not have a clue what these two are up to and he stupidly said that the S&P report should be regarded as garbage!
My goodness, how low are we going to go before these morons leave the place?
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No matter what the current Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados did, along with what some officials from the Ministry of Finance of the Government of Barbados, some officials from CARTAC and some other did also, in 2009/2010, to ‘recalibrate’ the so-called size of the political economy and services industry sectors of this country, primarily to convey the false impression to many gullible persons, that the so-called size of these sectors were bigger than what these said officials were thinking before, and smack after the start of this very prolonged, protracted, serious and severe political depression, it is events like the imminent closure of the Massy Stores branch in Cave Shepherd on Broad Street, that do indicate the extent of the breadth and depth of this said depression in this country.
PDC
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Nothing the BLP yardfowls say or do is gonna help wunna win the next election these were my words in the run up to the last election, “people hate when people lick mout on their own ” check wunna self yuh here,
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@ David January 15, 2015 at 5:31 PM #
“Is there not a standard way Economists agree to express on this issue whether to include/exclude interest?”
No, there is not… it’s just theatrics by the government. They manipulated the data to make it seem as though they have been able to achieve some objective. And how many people would actually review the data in the Central Bank reports to reconcile it with the data in Sinckler’s ministerial statement to determine fact from fiction?
When economists disagree, the reason can be often explained by the difference between positive economics and normative economics. Whereas positive economics deals with facts [statements that can be proven true or false], normative economics attempts to determine “what should be” [based on value judgments]
Essentially, many economists associate themselves with a political position and will use normative arguments for or against some economic policy. For example, the government’s economists have a duty to defend government’s policies and would interpret and explain economic data based on their value judgment and not fact.
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Federal budget delayed due to ‘market instability,’ Finance Minister says
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/federal-budget-delayed-until-at-least-april-on-low-oil-prices-finance-minister-says/article22462480/
And more bad news.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/target-closes-all-133-stores-in-canada-gets-creditor-protection-1.2901618
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