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Numbers Don’t Lie. People do!

We apologize to Walter Blackman for picking up his submission several days late – David His silver hairs will purchase us a good opinion, and buy men’s voices to commend our deeds. William Shakespeare: Julius Caesar I make reference to a Nation News article dated November 4, 2013, entitled “Numbers don’t lie” and written by…

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We apologize to Walter Blackman for picking up his submission several days late – David

Walter Blackman
Walter Blackman

His silver hairs will purchase us a good opinion, and buy men’s voices to commend our deeds.

William Shakespeare: Julius Caesar

I make reference to a Nation News article dated November 4, 2013, entitled “Numbers don’t lie” and written by Sanka Price. In that article, Mr. Erskine Griffith is highlighted as a top‐level civil servant who served as Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Finance under six Ministers of Finance and five Prime Ministers, dating back from his appointment to the post under Tom Adams to Owen Arthur, under whom he retired as the Director of Finance and Head of the Civil Service in 2000.

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121 responses to “Numbers Don’t Lie. People do!”

  1. Common sense is not common Avatar
    Common sense is not common

    It is commentary like this from a very informed person is what is lacking in this country.

    Not the shite that comes out of the mouth of the BLP professors of gloom aka ryan straugh,mascoll,owen,mia and the same erskine griffith.

    Imagine the destruction permanent secretaries like him can do to a government they don’t support politically like the DLP or any other party.
    And there are more like him currently secreted away in the public service.Caswell Franklyn was bold enough and honest enough to say so.Their intent is to serve their Master who elevated then to the position – Owen Arthur.

    People like Erskine Griffith and Layne former PS who have demonstrated how far our civil service has fallen in terms of integrity and ethics.

    The massive damage done by Owen Arthur to the integrity of our institutions, namely the Judiciary and our civil service will hopefully be told one day.

    Incompetents judges like Kentish,Jackie Cornelius, David Simmons wife,sonia what’s her name and others, as well as moving a politician in the person of an attorney general straight into the position of Chief Justice,a thing never seen and heard of in our country nor in our region and even worse corrupting the public service with known operatives who frustrate this DLP government every move and when not sucessful there, leak all sorts of information true and untrue to a very compliant media partner in crime – The Nation Newspaper.

    Shame,shame,shame!

  2. newblod Avatar
    newblod

    Nice bt precise article Walter. I have always admired your incitefl reasoning.

    Yes Erskine Griffith was owen arthur chief advisor and he advised him who to promote and not to promote. Look how people came from no where and jumped to the head of the line, all because of political expediency, no wonder the pblic ooficers are so demoralised and dont give a hoop about production.

    To understand the present, reference mst be made to the past.

  3. Grinding Stone! Avatar
    Grinding Stone!

    I don’t expect the learned actuary Walter Blackman, himself a staunch apologist for the DLP, to share his views on whether the matter of the small amount of THREE MILLION, THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS (BDS$3,300,000.00) ALLEDGED to have represented inter alia, legal fees for work done (according to invoices submitted by a certain lawyer) but declared by a court-appointed forensic audit to be nothing more than a common fraud, committed to allow monies of poor, suffering insurance policy holders & old-age pensioners, to be extracted to pay to a privileged buffoon and God knows who else!!!!

    NO LEGAL WORK DONE! MERELY A RUSE TO SATISFY GREED!! And the answer is not blowing in the wind. It is encased in a concrete/marble chamber in an historic churchyard in the east of the island!

    Tell us about that and all the rest, Mr. Actuary Blackman! You and your DLP cronies have for years made false accusations of rampant infelicities by the BLP Government, so as to deceptively influence the voters of Barbados. Up to this day, not a shred of evidence produced and some people in jail as was threatened.

  4. memyselfandi Avatar
    memyselfandi

    Blackman et al, just stfu! Bim got a serious problem and all uh wunnah coming wid scientific and actuarial shite. BIM HAS A FREAKIN PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. memyselfandi Avatar
    memyselfandi

    Yeh, Mr. Actuary Blackman (according to Grinding Stone), eff you suh ‘good’ wid experiences in dee States, why you doan leff our we and go and help yuh adopted country dat worse off instead uh writing shit? You living here? You feeling dee pinch? Of course not! You it gaw a damn clue bout ‘nuh money’ case you enjoying triple figure salary in US$. Just go away! steupse.

  6. David Avatar
    David

    Of course Walter Blackman would have expected to read the vitriol which has started to be tossed by the politivos but we know he is made of the sterner stuff.

    This is our big problem, we locate everything in a political context. Is this where our vaunted education has led us? Is Walter telling lies about the picture which the AG Reports have exposed? Why does it take so long to mobilize loan disbursements from the IADB and World Bank? Is he telling lies about a public service which remains in a moribund grip? So what do we mean when we refer to improving business facilitation? We need to wake up.

  7. balance Avatar
    balance

    The article does indeed have much merit but to be fair to Mr Erskine Griffith, he did indicate that he was only citing facts which he replicated from various reports. However, if we do indeed want to be philosophical , the slide would have started when a country with little resources and with no means of production embarked on an unsustainable economic policy in the sixties which aligned upward mobility with educational achievement at the expense of agriculture and productivity.
    To further exacerbate the unsustainable model, credit was expanded which made luxuries (cars, fridges, radios) then in the domain of the few readily available to all providing us with inflated remuneration levels to partially cover our debt burdens and inculcating a false and fictitious standard of living to which we have grown accustomed and allowing us to boast of punching above our weight ignoring the reality that one day the chickens will come home to roost.
    I well remember and not patting myself on the back telling a colleague working with me at the then port department in the seventies who was quarrelling that his salary revision was insufficient to meet the demands of the cost of living that one day there might be no increase at all because from a logical point of view something had to give.
    And I am not attempting to critique the economic policy of then, because it did serve a useful purpose of enabling many to enjoy a better side of life and did exude hope and expectation to the marginalised.

    Yes, pronouncements from persons of Mr Erskine Griffith’s ilk as well as Mr Blackman’s would always be seen as politically motivated. It is easy to paint them with the political brush because of their association some more intimate than some with the political directorate. Lest we forget, you can trace this ‘massive damage’ to use the words of the previous commentator to the institutions of good governance back to the introduction of the 1971 constitutional amendments by Mr Barrow which totally emasculated the independence of the Public Service Commissions and placed appointments to critical posts in the establishment firmly in the hands of the political directorate and to compound the issue destroyed the Local Government System to remove Mr Ernest Mottley’s stranglehold on the system and replaced it with Statutory Corporations which have proven because of its political nature to be a damocles sword on the back of good governance ever since. So, political involvement at the highest levels did not begin with Mr Griffith. Reflect on the names of such illustrious sons of the soil in more ways than one like Major Sam Headley, Mr ‘Nobby’ Estwick, Mr Pedro Welch, Ms Sonja Welch. Mr Lionel Nurse, Mr L.V Harcourt Lewis to name just a few- Can they be accused of undermining BLP administrations because of their political persuasion?

  8. David Avatar
    David

    And to continue: what about the escalating subsidies given to the Transport Board which continues to be operated like a going out of business rum shop? By extension the mal culture associated with PSVs? We have an endemic issue to confront, let us deal with it!

  9. Common sense is not common Avatar
    Common sense is not common

    Walter boy

    They doing multiple postings under different names to make it appear that it’s a lot of persons criticising you,but don’t fret the truth is biting them in that dark place that don’t see light.lol.

  10. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Actually, Walter Blackman’s article appears at first to be essentially a reasonable one but one sparsely littered with DLP talking points that could fool both DLP and BLP oriented posters into thinking that it is a pro DLP polemic written by someone who is considered to be a DLP apologist.

    The truth is that only Balance and Newblood have engaged on the actual thrust of the article, i.e. that it is an initially gradual but recently escalating exponential slide in the mores, morals and productivity of the Public Service, fed by politicians on both sides starting with the Barrow administration but continuing to the present, which is probably at the root of much of our present troubles.

    Of course the Blackman analysis is flawed, because he essentially omits the current administration (2008-2013) from serious or in-depth consideration in his analysis and appears to be lopsidedly putting all the blame on previous administrations.

    I would give 3 stars only to the Walter Blackman post. It needs to delve more deeply into root causes over the past 3.5 decades to be worthy of serious consideration.

  11. sith Avatar
    sith

    Decline is now a reality. Complaining about it will do nothing. We find ourselves in the situation we are in because the world has changed and we have not. Computers and the internet have changed the way consumers shop and how news is spread. We need a fresh start to fit into the new world model. There is going to be belt tightening but the way we have been operating cannot be sustained. Leadership is badly needed.

  12. David Avatar
    David

    If the author acknowledged that the rot has set in a long time ago what is the purpose of pointing to the current administration. It we agree that there is a fundamental shift that is required to change this is all that matter, the rest is fluff. There is only so much that can be addressed in this medium. Politics and inclination to be defensive will be the death of us yet.

  13. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    David; The point is that the decline has gone into top gear over the last 5 or so years and Blackman is being disingenuous, to say the least, in appearing to give that administration a pass.

    There has to be a fundamental shift to correct the situation but it does not extend to just damming the past administrations with faint blame and excluding the current one from scrutiny with weasel phrases. Griffith, by limiting his analysis to economic data which cannot lie (and which were really not challenged by Blackman) only looked at part of the problem. Blackman, himself, only looked at another part. The solution must lie in using a wholistic approach to diagnose all aspects of the problem and determine the strategies that must be used to get the Public service and the politicians to work again for the benefit of the country and not for themselves.

    Correction of the situation must take into account everything that all the administrations since the 80’s have done to damage the public service. Including this current one.

  14. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    And David; The politicians on both sides have shown that they are incapable of solving our problems.

    One way that we might have been ahead of the game at this time is if the two sides had each acknowledged that the overall problem was not of the other side’s exclusive making, and had got together to do the things that were necessary to move us forward, including, doing like Grenada, and taking personal cuts in their salaries and or perks.

    In addition, they could have taken an approach out of Erskine Sandiford’s book. But, they would have none of this. And most of us on this blog agreed that they could not be expected to put the country first because fighting for retention of their pensions was the first priority.

    A pox on both their houses!

  15. David Avatar
    David

    @Are you there yet

    Isn’t Walter framing his argument based on Erskine Griffith’s public statement? We can debate how this government has managed in the last six years but it does not change the fact that our problems started a long time ago.

  16. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    Number lie all the time. We can make them say anything we want them to, when we want them. This writer is said to have been exposed to statistical methods and actuarial science, is this all there is to be offered? We have known Walter fairly well and have no real animus towards him. However, he had to stop reminding us of people like another short man, Cox, can’t remember his first name. But so-called credentialed people who walk around pretending they are so ‘bright’

    We read this article and at best Walter is making a small point. With all the problems we have in Barbados, the Caribbean and the world we wondered whether these so-called ‘bright’ people like Walter can’t bring more that a mute point to bear on the affairs of mankind. Then again, our so-called bright people may not be too bright at all.

  17. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ David | November 20, 2013 at 12:56 PM |

    You are quite right, David. The economic problems facing the country are just the stark manifestations of serious underlying ore structural diseases that have their geneses long before this administration came to power.

    The administration under Sir Lloyd Sandiford was forced by fiscal and monetary circumstances to carry out major corrective surgery (primarily designed an outside specialist ) but failed to complete the job and had to settle for a “patched-up” outcome just enough to keep the patient alive and walking while living in a make-believe world created under the Owen Arthur administration.

    The economic patient is again in need of serious invasive surgery. But the problem this time around is that the local make believe quack seems to be too hesitatingly indecisive as to the correct surgical procedures to perform and is always at cross-purposes and being overruled by his boss.

    In the past the PM and MoF were wearing the same cap and surgical gown.
    In the current scenario both the PM and the MOF are class act clowns contradicting each other. More like a Mutt & Jeff or Laurel & Hardy or Bud & Lou comical sideshow.
    This situation has created a most uncertain atmosphere in the operating room with the supporting staff losing confidence in the whole exercise and turning it into a Marx Brothers special.
    Maybe a serious outside consultant would do the necessary procedures using the latest but uncaring fiscal and monetary technologies.

  18. enuff Avatar
    enuff

    All speculative. The fact remains that the DLP fukk up de place. Wunna just love to adopt this flawed balanced approach even when the truth jooking wunna in wunna eye. Trying to be balanced is NOT balance.
    Imagine this actuary praising Estwick and Freundel for drawing attention to the NIS funds, yet since 2008 they have spent, spending and will continue to spend more (meaning borrow) from NIS. So what Walter accusing Erskine of doing, he doing likewise. Pimrp! By the way when did Bdos’ Financial Services sector collapsed? Jepter Ince was a professional in New York too and he can’t differentiate between fiscal and physical or as I am sure he thinks it is spelt–fisical.

  19. Alvin Cummins Avatar
    Alvin Cummins

    @David,
    I agree with Walter. But the salient point he makes, that apologists for the previous administration choose to ignore, is that the Auditor General ‘s reports were presented every year. Relevant government departments that were criticized by these reports were not called to account at any time, but were allowed to continue and compound their bad practises. The heads of those departments instead of being called to make the necessary changes and correction were let off scott free. The same Erskine Griffith, as Minister of Agriculture, instead of taking the necessary strong corrective action; for example, against plantation owners; government or individual private owner, to protect the agriculture sector, increase productivity, etc, allowed money grabbing owners to apply for and obtain permission to change land use from agricultural to residential. The result was that official government policy became to sell the land for its highest economic value. We thus had housing developments on good agricultural lands, where one house was allowed to be built on two or more acres of land. In these developments the restriction was for the single house with no agricultural development.Thus the demise of the productive use of agricultural land. Lands were deliberately taken out of sugar cane production; even though the price of sugar production was subsidised, and the accompanying loss of much of these lands to food crop production. Whatever ways apologists for the last administration, or defenders of it, try to escape from their responsibility, the reports are there for the record and the numbers are available for perusal. The trends can be followed and it can be seen clearly where the rot set in; and it does not go back to Barrow’s time. Barbados’s growth began under Barrow’s administration.

  20. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    David; Re. your 12.56 pm post.

    Walter Blackman is an actuary, a serious numbers man. He is responding to an article that posits that numbers don’t lie, people do. His article should be expected to show where Erkine Griffith was wrong in his use of numbers by using superior numbers to make his case. Or agree with him.

    But he eschewed the use of numbers altogether, in subliminally agreeing with Griffith..

    Does that sound like how a professional actuary would be expected to deal with such a situation, or of one who doesn’t have the numbers to refute the Griffith points and so hides in a forest of words, not numbers?

  21. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Alvin Cummins | November 20, 2013 at 2:49 PM |

    You are being sickeningly disingenuous. All you have said cannot be gainsaid when viewed retrospectively with a sense of déjà vu of the Duffus Commission and the other allegations and rumours of corruption and graft under previous administrations.
    However, you fail to go on and say that the same state of affairs as prevailed then also prevails today and in some cases exacerbated like the abuse of the NIS funds to finance current expenditure and the government’s profligate spending over the last 3-4 years to remain electorally popular.

    Why don’t you check the Auditor General’s reports for the last 5 years and see if the phrase “the more things change the more they remain the same” does not hold true in every sense?
    Why not check what has taken place at the NHC for the last 5 years and what is the status of the people’s major watchdog called the PAC which has now been turned into a toothless ‘bark-less’ Chihuahua of a sleeping dog.

    PS: Alvin, if you do have the gumption to respond please don’t take us back to the past but use your time machine to point us to the future.

  22. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Alvin;

    Yuh dead wrong!

    I know for a fact that Both political administrations, starting with Barrow’s, cut up and sell Agricultural land, in concert with monied landholders, that resulted in significant depletion of our land resources. The Minister’s of Finance had the last say in this and could overrule contrary advice from line ministries

    That policy was not an Arthurian invention although Arthur might have sought to bring some transparency to it by enunciating a coherent (even if misguided) policy re. letting land find its highest value and spearheading the zoning of all lands according to transparent criteria.

    It served the political ends of both administrations, when in opposition, to make a big hue and cry about the others selling off agricultural land.

    They both did it. Not a fellah attempted to change the policy when they won the Government.

  23. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ are-we-there-yet? | November 20, 2013 at 3:22 PM |
    “His article should be expected to show where Erkine Griffith was wrong in his use of numbers by using superior numbers to make his case. Or agree with him.”

    I wanted to eschew this thread because this article is not about “Numbers” lying or Statistics portraying the truth but more about a clash of personalities and attempts to open up old workplace wounds that never really healed.

    Walter needs to deal with the numbers that that inform us today and seek to explain the ramifications of the excessive use of NIS funds to finance the central government’s current expenditure commitments and the future impact on retirees of his generation. This concern has also been highlighted by the Fortress Fund official and BARP which have pointed out the “numerical fact” of an aging population and a growing “grey” vote.

    Can he also shed some ‘futuristic light’ (given his actuarial background) on the implications of the national debt moving from around $5 billion in 2008 to almost $10 billion or so today?
    Can a government- in a sustained depressed economy- reliably service a very large debt (in relation to declining GDP) that is growing exponentially while at the same time providing secure employment for public sector workers and welfare security for those not involved in productive and remunerative lifestyles.

  24. Alvin Cummins Avatar
    Alvin Cummins

    @Miller and Are We …?
    First of all Miller I keep telling all of you that allegations and rumours are not fact. The Duffus commission, LIKE the commission of enquiry on the St. Joseph Hospital, showed that there was no truth in the allegations and rumour. Second of all whwn you and your cohorts assumed offict after the Sandiford administration demitted office, you ruled for 14 years after. You sould have know, or should have known, what was wrong and you had enough time to remedy it. You were in charge, but it did not suit your purposes to correct what was wrong. third of all where is the “profligate spending” you talk about? On one hand you talk of the use of N.I.S. funds for current expenditure. Isn’t the use of N.I.S. funds; which are borrowed from the Government, by the government, subject to terms and conditions, the same as any investments? Thus the funds are not being given away they are being invested, which is what should be done with such funds in any case. This prevents the use of foreign exchange for such expenditure. Fourth, The past , or at least references to the past are obviously painful to all of you but the truth is the truth and is there for impartial observers to see. Finally, the Opposition Leader is the chairman of he PAC and it is up to her to ensure that it functions well It’s nobody’s fault if she goes about it the wrong way. If it is toothless and barkless then it is your fault. Do things the right way rather than trying to be sensational.
    AreWe there…, I am glad you acknowledge that the Arthurian approach to land use was misguided. The inability to control the land owners and allowing them to do as they liked without any control, was under the aegis of the townplanner, with the Prime minister being the ultimate authority. He could have put a stop to it any time he wanted. But it suited his purpose. go back to his speech at the opening of Port St. Charles. And the zoning of all land was not transparent. The MoF with the ability to overrule other ministers was the Prime Minister himself. That does not apply now.

  25. Alvin Cummins Avatar
    Alvin Cummins

    @Miller,
    Which Fortress fund official?

  26. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Alvin Cummins | November 20, 2013 at 3:53 PM |

    Do you now see what we see about you being the embodiment of Sinckler’s boyhood bald pooch pet cat called Poochie? A plain ugly cu*t indeed!

    How on Earth can you describe advances to statutory corporations like the Transport Board to cover wages, salaries and other operational costs like fuel as investments by the NIS? How could a financially moribund business ever be able to repay loans in a sustainable way?
    Are you mad? No, we are, to expect you to think otherwise!
    We will not even ask you how effective the PAC was during the period 1995 to 2007.

  27. David Avatar
    David

    @Miller

    Don’t you recall the occasion when Walter called into a Brasstacks show and challenge NIS investment policy just over a year ago? Jepter almost caught a heart attack. We don’t want to listen to people like Walter who has shown that his bread does not need to be buttered here. Now we have Mr. Delmas from Fortress saying the same thing.

  28. Yagga Rowe Avatar
    Yagga Rowe

    The Dems are seeking to destroy B’dos
    Everything touched turns to dust
    Blighted ? yes somebody said it
    And we must agree with it
    DLP should stop and check itself
    before it wrecks itself
    wrecks B’dos

  29. balance Avatar
    balance

    The Duffus commission, LIKE the commission of enquiry on the St. Joseph Hospital, showed that there was no truth in the allegations and rumour.

    You surely have never seen either the Duffus Commission report or the St Joseph Hospital report. The Duffus Commission report dealt mainly with profound mismanagement of Government resources whereas the mysterious St Joseph Hospital report which was left to fester due to fraternal obligations highlighted instances of misuse of government funds. Icons in Barbados are treated differently.

  30. balance Avatar
    balance

    “The inability to control the land owners and allowing them to do as they liked without any control, was under the aegis of the townplanner, with the Prime minister being the ultimate authority. He could have put a stop to it any time he wanted”

    Two wrongs do not make a right but unwanton land use began with gay abandon in the cutting up of Ruby and Sandford and Mapps plantations presently populated by high level DLP operatives but that has always been the nature of the game so I would not even mention and Mr Dacosta Edwards. so refrain from going down that road as Mr Taitt once admonished young Ms Mottley in the House of Assembly when she was or so she thought enthusiastically highlighting the kola syrup issue.

  31. David Avatar
    David

    @are-you-there-yet

    Had a reread of Walter’s position and BU maintains that he is attacking the premise that the economy was put on a sustainable path in the Arthur years as espoused by Griffith in the article. His writing must be interpreted in context.

  32. balance Avatar
    balance

    Now back to my good friend Blackie. It would be inconceivable to simply ignore the empirical data highlighting the reasons contributing to our present predicament and simply spread the blame back to 53 years ago and onward but failing to take into account the below mentioned information.
    Public Finances of the Grantley Adams administration from 1955 to 1962. Note that in every year, current revenue exceeded current expenditure.
    Public Finances of the Grantley Adams administration from 1955 to 1962. Note that in every year, current revenue exceeded current expenditure.

    Public Finances of the Errol Barrow Administration. Note that there was a deficit on current account in only two of the fourteen years and for relatively small amounts.
    Public Finances of the Errol Barrow Administration. Note that there was a deficit on current account in only two of the fourteen years and for relatively small amounts.

    Public Finances of the Adams/St John administration. Note that current revenue exceeded current expenditure in each year except 1977/78 and then for a nominal amount
    Public Finances of the Adams/St John administration. Note that current revenue exceeded current expenditure in each year except 1977/78 and then for a nominal amount

    Public Finances of the Barrow/Sandiford administration. Note that current expenditure exceeded current revenue in two years only and for relatively small amounts
    Public Finances of the Barrow/Sandiford administration. Note that current expenditure exceeded current revenue in two years only and for relatively small amounts

    Public Finances of the Arthur adminintratioin. Note that current revenue exceeded current expenditure in each of its fourteen years.
    Public Finances of the Arthur administration. Note that current revenue exceeded current expenditure in each of its fourteen years.

    Then along comes the Thompson/Stuart administration and this is what happens
    Then along comes the Thompson/Stuart administration and this is what happens

    2008/2009. The government spends $256 million more than it receives in revenue.
    2009/2010. The government spends $557 million more than it receives in revenue.
    2010/2011. The government spends $647 million more than it receives in revenue.
    2011/2012. The government spends $284 million more than it receives in revenue.
    2012/2013. The government spends $260 million more than it receives in revenue.
    In addition, the Administration, its advisers and apologists have consistently preached and with some measure of success that all of our present economic difficulties are as a result of a worldwide recession over which they have no control and there is nothing better anyone else can do. To put Wally who is also one of our brightest sons logic in further perspective would suggest that the requirement for an administration to return to the electorate every five years to give an account of their stewardship and plans to make all things bright and beautiful is a mere exercise in futility if we are to believe that the performance of an administration bad or good during its term of office counts for nothing.
    Prior to 1961, there was no Government debt and there is an obvious reason for that phenomenon. Government lived within its means so to speak and generally speaking most of the population who were below poverty level in terms of materiality anyhow and this slow pace of material development was undoubtedly a significant factor in the sweeping of the BLP from office in 1961.Access to material luxuries and high profile jobs was the domain of the whites, a lesser extent persons of brown or fair skinned complexion or blacks with pedigree. (What was bandied about in this regard was that black men with means had a penchant for marrying poor red women as the story goes to lighten their darkness whereas the red women were encouraged to stifle their pride and marry these black negrocrats to lift them out of their poverty.) but back to lack of access to material things; I well remember my Grandmother waiting on the meeting turn to buy lumber from Mannings before accumulating sufficient material call Leon the carpenter to build the shed-roof. The floor was dirt in those days. The average person could not borrow or “trust” to enable them to acquire other than what their meagre salaries could afford which meant that upward mobility was well nigh unattainable until the availability of credit opportunities to all due to the enlightened policies post 1961 which were hailed as a new beginning and the advent of emigration opportunities as well. Am I to believe that the dismal performance of the administration can be blamed on the perceived misgivings of all administrations since 1961 except the current one. To quote Jeanette Layne-Clarke- pure balderdash- What has the present administration have to show for spending more in each of the last five financial years commencing 2008-2009 than it received.? Blackie think on these things before trying to defend the indefensible.

  33. enuff Avatar
    enuff

    I repeat, the argument about selling agricultural land is shallow and displays a lack of understanding of the role land as a resource within a small open economy. Dig up the golf courses, villas, hotels, other ancillary uses and plant sugar cane and “food”. See how far we gine get.

  34. enuff Avatar
    enuff

    David
    The economy did not flounder under Arthur, it did under the Dems. Do we know where Arthur and his party were going with the economy? Go research some of the policies, plans and programmes that were on the table. The Dems foolish…they abandoned all the policies to implement free bus fares and constituency councils. The DLP messed up the ABC highway, housing, UWI, the national strategy and the list goes on. Imagine a lot of what we are all now discussing is contained in a document debated in parliament since 2007.

  35. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Yes David;

    He is attacking that premise as you said but tangentially only. He is doing so in a way that suggests (reading between the lines) that the economy was left tottering on the brink of chaos in 2008 and that nothing anyone could do would be likely to produce better outturns over the last 5 years. The figures, along with the management and policy missteps since 2008, which should be evident to an actuary of Walter Blackman’s stature, suggest otherwise.

    e.g. as you indicated earlier, Blackman in addition to flagging the issue of the misuse of NIS funds in this blog, called Brasstacks and brassed up Jepter Ince for that administration’s egregious misuse of the NIS funds.
    However, by neglecting to mention the NIS issue as it continued under this administration in this piece, suggests that he considers the current handling of the NIS funds by this administration is OK.

    He is an actuary. The NIS funds and its management would appear to be an issue that was tailor made for him to expound on beyond the mere mention of the NIS situation in 2008. That glancing mention appears to have the characteristics of a well sculpted red herring.

  36. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Balance; I will post no further on this issue. You have said it all in your post above. Excellent.

  37. ac Avatar
    ac

    simply put the DLP was handed a basket with ten eggs, 9 were rotten and one was good, however the BLP aplolgist tells us they were all eggs but leaves out the most important piece of the puzzle .. that nine were rotten go figure

  38. David Avatar
    David

    @Are-we -there-yet?

    Wasn’t the debt comparative in the pre-post 2007 period addressed in the Ryan Straughn blog read brig below balance sheet items to book?

    Are not in agreement that in the economic boom we were burning cheap debt which bandaid or masked the structual flaws in the economy which the protracted global recession has exposed?

    We need to accept the reality that the economic bubble had to burst, it was unsustainable, we have been living above our means for too long.

  39. David Avatar
    David

    S&P cuts Barbados sovereign rating to ‘BB-‘
    Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:21pm EST

    Nov 20 (Reuters) – Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services on Wednesday cut the long-term rating of Barbados to BB-minus from BB-plus citing mounting external pressures due a persistent current account deficit and a high fiscal deficit.

    The outlook is negative.

    S&P affirmed the country’s single-B short-term rating.

  40. ac Avatar
    ac

    and balance i remember too when the were no street lights, govt spend nothing on infrastructure taxes were low, there were buses with side entrance from one end to the other, school houses in the country were non existent safety was secondary /there no such people as lifeguards . today what we have has come with a cost.a low deficit s which can only be accomplished by giving up the gains wich as move us forward with substantial cost and high risk to a society, we look at north america and want and wish for the things they have, but that economy is driven by debt and people who requires and expect a high standard of living some of which govt must provide, yes balance the cost for progress is not cheap, ,or we can go back to those good old days when gran ma waited for meeting turn to fix the holes in the roof and govt laid back and feed us nothing not even crumbs.

  41. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    David; Re your 8.37 post

    I am no economist or statistician so I would hope one of those experts would clarify your point about bringing below balance sheet items to book. You may have a point but I’m not up to researching it now. perhaps Balance could enlighten us about it.

    Re. your second paragraph, I always have some difficulty in accepting the argument that Barbados, or the US or England or Jamaica or the majority of countries should have looked in their crystal balls and restructured their economies before the Global Fiscal crisis hit. In Barbados’ case measures were indeed put in place, afaik, to make the necessary changes in energy, etc. if and when things got bad as they have done.

    Re. your last paragraph, Hindsight is 20-20 vision.

  42. ac Avatar
    ac

    and balance i remember too when they were no street lights, govt spend nothing on infrastructure taxes were low, there were buses with side entrance from one end to the other, school houses in the country were non existent safety was secondary /there were no such people as lifeguards . today what we have has come with a cost….a low deficit can only be accomplished by giving up the gains which has move us forward/ with substantial cost and high risk to a society,….we look at north america and want and wish for the things they have, but that economy is driven by debt and people who requires and expect a high standard of living some of which govt must provide, yes balance the cost for progress is not cheap, ,or we can go back to those good old days when gran ma waited for meeting turn to fix the holes in the roof and govt laid back and feed us nothing not even crumbs.

  43. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    David re. your 8.45 pm post. Looks like another signpost along the way.

    There was also a news item tonight that a Tourism Official had disclosed that visitor arrivals, which had been projected at -20% for the winter season had now been estimated to be likely to be -4%. i.e. a positive projected growth of 16% as compared with this year. There was also some other positive news on visitor outturns in September and October. Looks like the graph may be going in the right direction in that regard.

    But in any case, We need to fasten our seat belts. Looks like a rough ride from here on in.

  44. ac Avatar
    ac

    and balance what would you prefer a high deficit or an economy with a low deficit high crime and a society spiraling out of control and below the poverty line. a fact which must be taken into account as we debate ALL THE COST of managing a society and bringing the deficit down.

  45. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    AC and some others; Seems to me that your argument suggests that It would have been better for Barbados to have adopted policies which ensured that the populace remained in pre 1950 conditions. I.e. we should have not embarked on the services sector. We should have emphasized Agriculture to the detriment of Tourism, etc.

    Development planning is not as simplistic as you think.

  46. ac Avatar
    ac

    yes we are going to have to ride the rough seas and high tides of this economic storm. not going to be easy some tough changes going to be made ,but should not be at a cost that brings a deficit down and destroy the social fabric of a society, the question therefore lies in balance and how do we cross the threshold between a stable economy and the lowering of the deficit there are no quick answers or quick fixes in measuring and counting the cost on both sides

  47. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ David | November 20, 2013 at 8:45 PM |
    “S&P cuts Barbados sovereign rating to ‘BB-‘”

    Is this a further downgrade of Barbados’s credit rating?
    This is not very comforting news for the citizens on the eve of an IMF “consultation”.
    Bitter medicine is about to be administered especially i the foreign reserves fall below Bds $800 million as is expected by end December.

    We can expect the DLP administration to go into ‘victim’ mode blaming the BLP for undermining the country and creating an atmosphere of no confidence among foreign investors and lenders.

    It would do this administration a world of good and take the advice given by Prof. Howard. The sooner the better; January 2014 sounds like the right time. June 2014 will be too late to stave off a devaluation.

  48. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ ac | November 20, 2013 at 9:38 PM |
    “how do we cross the threshold between a stable economy and the lowering of the deficit there are no quick answers or quick fixes in measuring and counting the cost on both sides”

    Yes, there are quick answers. Continue to blame the BLP as is played out every day by the DLP in and out of Parliament.
    Do you remember the 9 bad eggs left in the basket by the BLP?
    Well, the news is that the last of the ten is now addled while the DLP has been on the nest.

    We shall soon hear you and CCC singing the praises of the IMF and its timely intervention with the same gusto you have been singing at the arrival of the rescue ship SS Sandals to save your tourism souls.

  49. ac Avatar
    ac

    where did i suggest that sir .on the contra my argument suggest the complete opposite, simply put i am saying that much of our progress is indebted to a high deficit that without out it we still be in the 1950’s era when there was little or no progress sby govt and that would not be a good thing as a matter of fact or position would even worse, , in as much as we hate the position we have found ourselves in financially . there is still light at the end of the candle, for in as much as we would rather not be here , the reality is that if given a choice to the good ole days Balance spoke of, many would prefer NOW even under these harshest conditions to yesteryear. Mind you i too would like to see a small deficit but i am willing to count the cost to the social and well being of a country, But then again proper planning and good governance through out the years might have made it a little more palatable ,we are where we are and the key to full emergence is all pulling together and making it work. my hands are folded.

  50. Alvin Cummins Avatar
    Alvin Cummins

    @Miller and Balance, enuff too.
    First of all enuff, at least we would be able to reduce our food import bill and gain more foreign exchange from sale of sugar. The former producers of sugar had only one vision for the sale of sugar. Sell all in bulk to the “Mother country. required no thought, no marketing skills, noseeking for markets for ancillary products etc, etc. Between 1994 and 1998 the opposition consisted of 2 members. Between 1998 and 2002 the opposition (DLP) had 7 members. compare that with 2008 when the Opposition (BLP) had 10 members and now when they have 13.
    Next, it did not matter whether the funds from NIS were borrowed by the government and channelled to the Transport Board, for whatever uses they put the money to, It has to be a loan. The terms and conditions have to be guaranteed by some entity. One has to wait and see the fulfilment of the terms and conditions. When your party used NIS funds what were the terms and conditions, and what were they used for? I am surprised that in those “good times” when people “had mponey in their pockets” that the NIS funds had to “borrowed”.
    By the way all ransport authorities in the Western world receive subsidies from the respective governments who also assist in the covering of their expenses by periodic increases in bus and subway fares. Check toronto transport costs and the measures put in place to assist in covering these costs. Right now bus fares are over 3 dollars per trip, Seniors and students pay 1.90 and monthly passing they stick to their schedules even though the busses run empty.s are over a hundred dollars a month for unlimited rides. In my area we also have 24 hr service, and even at three o’clock in the morning the run according to the schedule.
    Further …”the mysterious St Joseph Hospital report which was left to fester due to fraternal obligations highlighted instances of misuse of government funds.” Bull!!!The report was finished long before the 2008 election. You had nothing to go on from the report so YOU never disclosed the contents of the report, either in the 2008 election or in the 2013 election campaign.

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