Submitted Observing
The 2022 elections will be remembered for many things but, two key features will be the timing of the call by the Prime Minister and the lack of measures put in place by EBC to allow Covid Positive patients to vote.
In other threads I have already criticised the Prime Minister for calling an election when rates are increasing and there was no constitutional need. In essence, the political need outweighed any considerations that she held during the emergence of the Alpha and Delta variants. A look back using the charts attached clearly shows what was always expected (possibly with or without an election). The number of cases have gone up (along with those ineligible to vote) and the positivity rate has increased (though it was increasing a few days before the election call).
Some questions will forever be asked when the dust settles.
- Did the EBC have a duty to prepare and put measures in place for Covid positive patients?
- Did the government have a duty to amend the law to allow persons in isolation their right to vote?
- Did the Prime Minister have a duty, knowing the statistics, to pause calling elections and instead focus on the public health matter (and other matters) at hand?
- Did political considerations and circumstances override the need for immediate leadership?
- Will our circumstances change whoever wins (or won), now that as a small country our eyes were on elections rather than on avoiding the worst case of 700-1000 cases per day and the obvious impacts on workforce availability and education?
- Has the last 2 and a half weeks laid any foundation for the unity that the Prime Minister said we needed?
Tough times lie ahead, and regrettably, the fractures that divide us, the political considerations that motivate us, and the cronyism that disadvantages the majority of us will continue unabated.
I’ll end with a quote from 1986 by the late Errol Walton Barrow. Unbelievably it is relevant 35 years later.
“There is no unemployment in Singapore. They have developed an education system but they are teaching people things that are relevant to the 21st century. They are not teaching people how to weed by the road. They are in the advance of the information age. But you know the difference between you and them? They have got a mirror image of themselves.”
“there was no constitutional need.”
1 x 30-0 win is an excellent achievement
2 x 30-0 wins is supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
I’ll show you an interesting feature of the “Number of Cases” graph.
Look at the peaks on 3rd January, 10th January and 17th January.
The 12th is interesting but do you notice there is a week’s (7 days) difference between each of them?
https://stats.gov.bb/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Arrivals_2019_05.pdf
https://imgur.com/V7VmB3X
John
You need to understand the turnaround time and delay of 1 tallying 2 sending 3 collecting and 4 processing data
this simple example could be a 4 day delay on working days not even including weekends and bank holiday delays
The peaks in the cases are perhaps mimicking the average length of stay of visitors.
Wednesday seems to be a big day for testing.
Probably seeks to get in the weekend where most entertainment activities occur in Barbados.
Come Thursday, acclimatize, have a blast on the weekend, recover and look around, get tested Wednesday then go back home.
https://imgur.com/mmRBHaj
Anything above the yellow band is the cases in the visitors population.
Anything below is the cases in the local population.
There may be some rise in the local cases but I suspect it may be minimal as the populations are usually separate.
If this is true, the big question is how many of the visitors are allowed to vote?
But, the significant question is will 50 or so cases in the local population skew the results in which they are most likely to have occurred, the southern corridor, …………… parts of Christ Church and St. Michael.
I wonder if there was social distancing and protocols last night!
Just observing
You could argue that the peaks identified further divide the visitor population into two camps.
Those who come for a week’s stay and those who stay longer.
I met a person from Britain in December who was staying about a month, just went back.
@555
Going to give you 5 stars.
Peaks on Mondays are usually associated with a lack of data entry on the weekend and a Monday catch-up.
This is addition with Lyall graph leads me to believe that data entry is a PART of the problem.
I still believe that covid is complicated
Reasonable answers exist, but a post with less than 200 words may not adequate.
“Going to give you 5 stars.”
Thankfully BU no longer does stars above
But, John did not comprehend the simple message, his problem is not listening to truths and facts that are correct or ignoring them
During this near 2 year pandemic we have had lockdowns employed as a measure to restrict movement to prevent COVID-19 spread. Short of a 12am – 5am curfew, such measures have since been considered obsolete. Not only that, we have had the farce of govt suspending that curfew for particular days (as if COVID would have stop spreading on those days, if the intention of the curfew is to slow Covid spread)
I have stated that there is nothing unique about the ballot casting and election process that an elector goes through that places them at any greater risk of catching COVID-19. If it was considered that such activity placed them at risk THE COUNTRY WOULD HAVE BEEN LOCKED DOWN IN GENERAL!!! Why then should heavy weather be made of holding elections AT THIS POINT??
Addressing the other points raised by the original poster, starting from the top the Representation of the People act states that ballots have to be cast IN PERSON. In short, I agree that it was an oversight to not have this act modified pre elections. However once the election is called, the EBC takes control and does so within the bounds of this Act. The PM has no power to change how the elections and ballot casting process is carried out.
Also, the Emergency Management Directive expressly states that persons in isolation cannot leave their place of isolation
WITHOUT THE PERMISSION of the CMO. The EMD was since modified around Jan 7 2022.
Seeing how these relevant laws are framed I see nothing in law that needs any special modification that COVID-19 positive persons CANNOT be accommodated to go at the polling stations. As i see it, all that is needed is for them to go outside the usual hours opened to the public. and for the electoral personnel having to wear PPE, Haz mat suit etc. IN MY OPINION it is just a lack of time and a lack of will to have it done.
Too add to this ,and to be very realistic anybody that think that there are not COVID positive individuals in society that have not been picked up by testing and have not gone to cast their vote would be very very naive.
@DLP TV
What about the crowds seen at final meetings in recent nights?
@DavidBU that is a separate issue and deals with the COVID monitoring unit not doing their job. It only adds to the growing apathy and ambivalence people have to COVID-19. If people do not fear crowds do you think they will fear casting a ballot? lining up if they have to? As i stated a while ago…there will be some that will avoid casting a vote due to COVID-19 and it will most likely be those same individuals’ that do not go out daily carrying out “normal activities”. It will not be a major factor affecting people’s willingness to vote AT THIS POINT of the pandemic and AT THIS POINT of the general elections cycle.
@DLP&lies
We must disagree.
BLP+++++++
De moment of truth @ de closed of polls tonight…
Where is Pac-Man ??????
Mia declares Victory
@ 555 dubstreet January 19, 2022 12:37 PM
Who else do you expect to gain the majority of seats at the polls being conducted today?
Given the deep social and economic structural adjustments coming the Bajan way, Verla would be a fool to want to form the next government.
Her star can only shine from the remnants of MAM’s supernova.
Maybe the next one which can be formed any time after 2023.
@Miller
Will Verla win her seat in St. Lucy?
Davie.
If your DLP wins this election, I will eat your left foot leather shoe on de Oistins stage this Friday night @ 7:00pm.
Bring de shoe, S-Bend Hot Sauce and some Apple Cider Vinegar.
Oh, bring some 150 proof Rum to wash off de leather paint.
My word is BOND.
Give the blogmaster a bread an two and watch muh.
Yes 🙌🏿, Kepler’s Supernova…
I ain’t mekking no predictions re elections.
I better at calling the COVID cases.
Cheapest day to fly is Wednesday so test 2 days before … Monday.
Most expensive day to fly is Sunday.
Per “Rodney Parris
Supernovas were partying @ 2nd Avenue Holetown & Andy Restaurant on Brandon Beach Shouting “Mia Got This”🎼🎵
Some say White Bradshaw came out and fired some shots in de air because of all de noise on his beach. The cuss he, singing”Jack de beach is Mine”.🎶
He turned off all de house 🏡 lights…Police showed up..
“Mia Got This”🎼🎵
Mia likes winning elections it gives her a buzz
I heard a rumour she will be announcing another election soon
JohnJanuary 19, 2022 1:18 PM
I ain’t mekking no predictions re elections.
I better at calling the COVID cases.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Besides, people are not going to want to hear my predictions … too extreme!!
It’s what comes after that matter.
Another WTF moment
” Pat Blackman did not see it coming that she would not be allowed to vote with bangles on her wrist this morning at Princess Margaret Secondary School, St Philip.
Blackman said she refused to vote after she said she was told by the Returning Officer that her bangles would not be allowed.
She said a police officer was summoned and instead of removing the jewellery she preferred to leave without voting.
Blackman said her decision was based on principle and that she was not contravening any of the rules that prohibited all electronic and communications equipment.”
Slow but smooth
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-protocols-make-slower-voting-combermere-school/
JohnJanuary 19, 2022 1:30 PM
Cheapest day to fly is Wednesday so test 2 days before … Monday.
Most expensive day to fly is Sunday.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Flights on Wednesday probably full.
So that may be why we are seeing a second peak last week, Monday and Wednesday.
So expect cases today, Wednesday, to be even higher than yesterday in preparation for Friday’s flights.
But we will see in a few hours.
JohnJanuary 19, 2022 1:03 AM
HantsJanuary 18, 2022 9:25 PM
BIG PROBLEM ? 652 cases ?
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/18/652-new-covid-cases-monday/
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wednesday as in today may be even higher, tests for people going back on Friday, next favorite day after Wednesday to fly ….. perhaps.
Don’t have long to wait.
We’ll see.
“Given the deep social and economic structural adjustments coming the Bajan way, Verla would be a fool to want to form the next government.”
There are perks to being a ruler
such as bath time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_K6Rr5seQg
@John,
Your phrase ‘Numbers cannot speak for themselves” still rings in my head.
Alas, though silent, they can be manipulated and tortured and made to speak of things that are not and can not be.
10000 in 5 years
https://www.cbc.bb/cbctest/news/local-news/great-start-in-addressing-housing-demand/
TheOGazertsJanuary 19, 2022 2:21 PM
@John,
Your phrase ‘Numbers cannot speak for themselves” still rings in my head.
Alas, though silent, they can be manipulated and tortured and made to speak of things that are not and can not be.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A rehash of lies, damn lies and statistics!!
But you claim statistics are not crap.
A picture is still worth a thousand words, true from when the phrase was coined over a century ago.
I like pictures, they cut through the crap of numbers and statistics.
So what do you think would happen if we were to compare our far smaller peaks a year ago with those of today?
Do you think there would be some agreement which might suggest seasonality in floods and tourist arrivals?
And if so, what then?
Statisticians, who speak for the statistics, as in any other profession may lie, cheat or steal.
Look and see what you think!!
Lyall
Do the same graphs for Barbados a year for the same time period and tell me if you don’t see a striking similarity which tourist arrivals could explain.
Problem last year started about Jan 02 vs this “year” on Dec 23, a week earlier.
Lasted till March.
I think this one now will go on beyond March because people are sick and tired of the misery up north.
But Barbados won’t of itself have a problem, just a number.
That number can be manipulated by the GOB to create fear and trepidation but it will not mean what people think it means.
We need the cases split between imported and local cases.
The two population are be separate.
Just hope for no floods.
What do you think would happen if we had floods and the Southern Corridor was impacted as it was the end of last year?
We would have a monstrous problem as many visitors will be in the southern corridor.
JohnJanuary 19, 2022 4:04 PM
Lyall
Do the same graphs for Barbados a year …
++++++++++++++++++++
…. ago!!
@rabbit
“I think this one now will go on beyond March because people are sick and tired of the misery up north.”
Your <100 prediction failed miserably.
The above is a safe prediction. Almost as safe as saying “it will go beyond tomorrow.”
“Just hope for no floods.”
I knew we would end up at the waterhole or in the flood zone. I am still waiting to see how you can work the Quakers into this story.
“A picture is still worth a thousand words, true from when the phrase was coined over a century ago.”
Our 3-Dimensional eye-brain pattern recognition mechanism is able to perceive and process data much more easily and readily when presented in the form of 2-dimensional pictorial representations
555dubstreetJanuary 19, 2022 4:56 PM
555dubstreetJanuary 19, 2022 4:56 PM
“A picture is still worth a thousand words, true from when the phrase was coined over a century ago.”
Our 3-Dimensional eye-brain pattern recognition mechanism is able to perceive and process data much more easily and readily when presented in the form of 2-dimensional pictorial representations
Our 3-Dimensional eye-brain pattern recognition mechanism is able to perceive and process data much more easily and readily when presented in the form of 2-dimensional pictorial representations
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A graph is a 2 dimensional pictorial representation/picture of not one but several moments in time and “A picture is still worth a thousand words, true from when the phrase was coined over a century ago.”
You obviously have not studied how the brain solves visual object recognition
nor how programmed robot computers can do the same
so you are no peer of mine worth communicating with son
Barbados records 677 new COVID cases
https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/19/barbados-records-677-new-covid-cases/
HantsJanuary 19, 2022 9:15 PM
Barbados records 677 new COVID cases
https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/19/barbados-records-677-new-covid-cases/
++++++++++++++++++++++++
652 -> 677
There you go, an increase as predicted suggesting it is linked to tests of visitors returning home and seats on airlines.
Over the next few days there could be a fall if the link is really there and then it will rise on Monday, fall Tuesday and rise again next Wednesday.
We’ll see.
The growth in GDP this year over last year will be significant because we are getting a seemingly high number of tourists.
Local numbers are less than 100 and have been since December 23.
Last election everyone was on BU waiting for the results…it was so much fun, can’t handle late nights anymore…hope yall enjoy..
@Our Nubian Queen
You know where the chips will fall.
Have a great Evening.
It will be interesting to see if we end up going the way of the Canaries where COVID and Tourism is concerned.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-holidays-threatened-as-tourists-face-more-restrictions-in-the-canary-islands/ar-AASVrgq?ocid=msedgntp
Mottley takes over control of health temporarily and hints at a new Covid direction.
Can anyone say they are surprised?
The benefits for a PM of being able to use health statistics to make a political decision are clear.
Just observing
The resident BU expert on longevity and Ground Keeper should take note of the figures in this clip.
Quite stunning!!
No problem for Ms. Mockley to solve!!
Just tell us what the imported cases are and leff us alone.
So what happened with the cases today?
Fell a bit I see just as predicted.
Expect they will fall a bit more over Saturday and Sunday and then rise on Monday as peeps get their testing done 2 days before flying on Wednesday, the cheap day.
Tuesday will see a fall and Wednesday a rise .
If it turns out that way and so far I have been right, it means we the flights are pretty full and people have to use a day other than Wednesday to fly.
Which is good.
I am told COVID is rampant in locals but I don’t believe it.
The numbers are matching my model so far too well.
Means we have double digit cases.