Review of Barbados Economy January to June 2021

Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first half of 2021 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.

Central Bank of Barbados
Read Full TextCentral Bank of Barbados Review of Barbados’ Economy – January-June 2021.pdf

151 comments

  • Capable seniors should stay on the job????…..hog wash, give the young a chance, you had your kick at the cat. If you dont have young people working your asking for trouble. Pass on your knowledge…retire at a reasonable point… enjoy the time you have left …I for one do not want to see a 65 yr old stripper most people know when it is time to leave but some do not and need a push. Lets cap the age for senators at 50 before their faces start to collapse from sucking on the public tit for so long.

    Like

  • Gov
    My question where is this 5 percent growth coming from

    Like

  • Blah, blah, blah!

    Tried listening and gave up. What can he say that we don’t already know?

    And what is there to discuss?

    Tinkering with our old engine will keep us spluttering along like a juck-a-juck car, backfiring every ten seconds.

    Time they admit that unless this covid is conquered worldwide, with our current plan, we will soon dead stop.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    @ Donna
    “ Tinkering with our old engine will keep us spluttering along like a juck-a-juck car, backfiring every ten seconds.“

    Well said !

    Like

  • 5% Must be laundering to reach 3 Trillion, They will never stop until they are stopped!

    Like

  • The night watchman did not ask that 5% question – oh no no no

    She just “play on”

    Listen to the political meetings when the Bell ring

    Like

  • The US economy grew 1.6% in the quarter and 6.5% for the year. There was a time it would be good news for Barbados as a good indicator to forecast. With COVID 19 about to dampen travel ‘Houston, we have a problem’.

    Like

  • The quarterly MAGIC SHOW report from the Central Bank government puppet, seems like a repeat of the last 20+ quarterly reports. Things to note the Forgiven Currency Debt levels are once again increasing, interesting DEBT increasing is flaunted as a POSITIVE, oh yes its Bajan math.

    Like

  • Reading through the Magic Report I see that Tourism has FLAT LINED, DEAD, however there as a miraculous “estimated” growth in the last quarter of 5.5% in this sector. Imagine the “estimated” GROWTH that could be achieved if we could KILL OFF TOURISM completely, infinity comes to mind, BAJAN math at its BEST.

    Like

  • The Central Bank Governors “weed” is potent stuff, Hallucinations of grand proportions. Maybe Barbados should package this variety for sale in world marker cannabis shops, a win win for local government, all financials look “GOOD” and foreign currency rolls in. Food for thought. Could base new REPUBLIC constitution on this endeavor and have President declared for life.

    Just saying.

    Like

  • The central bank is suppose to report on the performance/non of the economy. The government deals with policy measures.

    Like

  • 226million in borrowed debt which has pushed Barbados level to extreme heights one again
    Levels which caused this present govt to place blame and shame on Minister of Finance Chris Sinckler
    Never mind that Mia had the mitigated shameless gall to place Chris on one of Govt Finance committes Phew

    Like

  • When you flat pun you tail from a lockndown last year and you up 5 % this year wunna really did expect different?

    I mean if I did had my shop closed last Saturday half day because of rain and this Saturday sun hot and the one door shop did open all day wunna wouldn’t expect me to sell at least 5% more this Saturday?

    Like

  • Tell me how it compare to the same quarters of 2019 please as that is the pre covid period we aiming to recover to.

    Like

  • @John A

    If you sold 100 widgets prior quarter and 105 in reporting quarter what does that workout to be?

    Like

  • @David.

    That is the mistake you and them making right there friend.

    You can’t compare performance in a vacuum without factoring in conditions. Let me give you a simple example.

    A car on the same straight road on the same day does 100mph going in one direction. It then turns around and does a 105 mph in the opposite direction. Does that mean the car is suddenly 5% faster? No it doesn’t because you haven’t factored in conditions for comparison. You didn’t factor in for example that when it went up the road at 100mph you are going into the wind and coming back down you had the wind in your rear!

    So straight line comparisons without factoring in conditions is a serious mistake many make. That is why I said to get a fair idea of where we are in terms of recovery one would have to go back to 2019 periods vs 2021.

    Like

  • @John A
    What if you sold 150 widgets three quarters before.

    But it is important that we begin to Rick upwards…

    Like

  • Next we Will heat we need to go back to 2997/8/9

    Like

  • @J2
    You are at loss for words…
    You should hit the ball for six instead of standing in the crease muttering 😃

    Like

  • @John A

    Just explaining the straight line %.

    Like

  • A car going at 100 Mph In a hesd Wind is still going at 100mph

    At 105 In a tailwind its still traveling at 105 mph

    Like

  • Stick to what you know bout whatever that is 🤣

    Like

  • David you can not compare a straight line comparison on 2 quarters when I was open for business for the period and the other was under lock down for a substantial period. It is not practical.

    As i said its like taking the sales from one Saturday where you were open half day and comparing it to the next Saturday where you were open all day. For those that don’t understand this there is little hope for explaining it.

    Forget the background clucking and think on it. For a fair comparison the factors for the period must be similar. For the fowls that want to argue this tell them to bring the 2019 figures for the same period and lets compare where we are in real terms. Left out the party crap and let us focus on where we are in real terms and where we have to go so as to at least return to a pre covid situation.

    Of course to do that some may find embarrassing so they will not want to do that! LOL

    Like

  • @ Theo

    We have for the first time in decades a clear line drawn in the economic sand. We have pre covid economic levels and post covid economic levels. Prior to covid you could compare quarters as most of the conditions in the economy were relatively similar year to year. In 2020 all that sadly change when thanks to covid global economies got cat spraddled. Now while those like Germany were not hit as hard, the tourists based ones were devastated.

    Having said the above now if we want to return to 2019 pre covid levels of activity and employment, we must compare 2021 to that so we can see how far we have to go to get there.

    Basically let’s say your sales fell 40% in 2020 over 2019 then recovered by 5% in 2021, you still need to regain an additional 35% in sales to just get back to 2019 levels. So yes the 5 % growth sound nice politically, but in real terms of recovery to where we can put people back to work where are we really?

    Fluff vs harsh reality.

    Like

  • It’s not rocket science. Shrewd and the best investors are always a good mix of “fundamentals” versus “technicals” but unfortunately our COB governor always tries to bamboozle us with the technicals – fancy charts, ratios and percentages.

    Fundamentally Barbados is not earning FX at the rate it spends and fundamentally more of our precious FX is directed to interest and loan repayment leaving nothing for investment and development spending. So fundamentally we are broke with no ability for government to invest it’s way out of it. Fundamentally.

    No need for the fancy jargon from folks in ivory towers who do not create a single job despite a title that presumes they do. Another colonial nugget…titles that only tread water

    Like

  • “For a fair comparison the factors for the periods must be similar.”

    @ John A

    You are correct………. assuming ‘all things being equal.’

    That’s one of the reasons why economists use the term ‘ceteris paribus.’

    Like

  • Artax

    Thanks, was trying to keep it simple so didn’t want to go to CP or R=N/D. LOL

    Like

  • After listening to the Gov.and his spin on economic growth
    I couldn’t help but wonder which Barbados is he speaking of
    Firstly the economic levels tells a different story
    Govt continuation of borrowing tells a whole different story
    Their is no new investor activity
    But then again gov. might be seeing an uptake in rebuilding houses damaged by hurricane as a creation of growth also an area that supplies ample work for the construction industry

    Like

  • Making a Mountain Out of a mole hill

    What about the pre and post great recession periods – for the Lind In the sand ?

    Like

  • As Obama Said

    Is like a car going over a cliff
    U Got to g’et it stop before u climb back Out of the cliff. U cant g’et back to 19 level unless u go Pass 20 first We are now 5 % above the point where Were at at this time last year.

    Ideally we would like to be back above 2009 levels. So should we not be making Out comparisons to 2009?

    Like

  • Well it getting late so let me put the fowls to bed with a little bedtime reading.

    For those interested in financial facts as opposed to political fiction, I want wunna to read the Financial Times in the UK dated May2 2021 and pay special attention to an article by Chris Giles. In it he speaks to some of the economies that will return to pre covid levels by the end of this year.

    Now dem is only the Financial Times so don’t pay them and Bloomberg no mind, when what all of them are now comparing is economic activity TODAY compared to PRE COVID LEVELS. I mean ignore them cause them probably does support the Dems too. Cause you know once you share facts that don’t support the divine leaders you is a Dem in the eyes of the fowls. LOL

    Like

  • Maybe with all the Reading do (and i know the fred Education was wasted on You) then You should read the damn financial report and You Will see the the figure comparison for 2019 is In the report .

    I Think they May have gone back about give years

    But then You May not be interested In facts only to make axmountain Out of a mole Hill

    The cb gov dont give Out his information to please one person

    All the relevant info is In the report for those that are interested and Can comprehend

    Like

  • Standard reporting for gdp as praticed In most counrties = comparison for q/q and/or Y/Y.

    Fact or political fiction?

    Like

  • Did the financial time or Bloomberg advocating for the dropping of the Q/Q comparison for gdp reporting ?

    Like

  • It’s a pity you can comprehend the 5 percent growth on the front page of today paper WAS BASED ON 2021 OVER 2020 LOL

    You either don’t understand what you read or them red tint lenses you got don’t understand what others write. Every report has in historic data as has been the case since the lion at gun hill was a cub. THE POINT IS THE COMPARISON BEING MADE FOR BROWNIE POINTS IS THE QUARTERS OF 2021 VS 2020 WHEN THE ISLAND DID SHUT DOWN! You understand that now?

    Anyhow i going left you to argue a car going into the wind and one with the wind behind it don’t matter. You better call the fellows at Bushy Park and let the explain that to you as well! LOL

    Lord I deading here with laughter 🤣😂

    Like

  • Lisa Cummins is doing her best to drum up our deflated tourism industry.

    “The BTMI has started its branding and marketing campaign – Sweet Summer Savings”. Interesting choice of words as it reminded me of GP’s sadly missed Sunday Column on BU which he called “Sweet Sunday Sermon”.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/07/29/renewed-effort-to-get-more-us-visitors/

    Like

  • Jeep making urself a fool

    For all These years we being discussing the financial reports. I assumed that we all know the the reports are for the quarter of the current year compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year

    You really need to go to skeer and stop scratchings un the Dark

    Fyi. I Got muy report here on BU

    The link is right there with all the info by CB
    You need to read it fully instead of just the newpaper reports or Alonso with them

    Like

  • One thing though for a man that pretends he dont like the politics. You does sure try to throw political jabs as deflections when you cant bring nothing Else But BS

    Like

  • Wall Street Journal July 25th by Paul Hannon.

    This is another good article for those that read publications other than party manifestos. In it he states that by the end of July 2021 the US economy will be at a level of GDP for the first time that will be slightly above pre covid levels.

    I can’t understand why all these “brand name” globally respected financial publications all now comparing econimc recovery to pre covid levels and not 2020. Wunna feel it is a conspiracy to deflate the egos of some small minded people or them is just financial realist trained In the school of economics? I going have to write them and complain that them wrong and should read the views on BU.

    Them might come back and say B Who? Lol. Anyhow folks goodnight I had enough fun for 1 night. Wunna read the articles though cause them is we tourist markets, so I glad to see them return TO PRE COVID LEVELS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. Sorry I had to get in that last dig!🤣

    Like

  • Mobile money in a relatively under developed country IS A NO BRAINER.

    https://thecfma.org/the-economic-impact-of-mobile-money-adoption-in-somalia/

    Like

  • Every quarter the fed give q/q it is ledt up to who ever to compare it with what ever period they want to

    Same with CB

    Like

  • Every report has in historic data as has been the case since the lion at gun hill was a cub.

    Xxxxxxxxxxxxcxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Do You even understand what that says?

    Now You want the reporting to be chance to please ur ego or to put a political damper ob the good news of the 5% ?

    Like

  • So how tou want the report to be ??

    The economy green In the second quarter at a rate the put us at -15% when compared to the same quarter of 2019?

    And if the economy never g’et back to the lavel of 2019 untill 2030 , must Every quarter report by the CB be compared to 2019?

    Freaking BS

    Like

  • Feed prices to rise by 26%

    By Colville Mounsey colvillemounsey@nationnews.com
    Come next month, Barbadians could be paying significantly more for poultry and meat.
    This is because Pinnacle Feeds Ltd, the country’s largest supplier of livestock feed, will be increasing the cost of its products by 26 per cent.
    However, head of the Barbados Egg and Poultry Producers Association, Stephen Layne, has warned that the fallout, if not mitigated at the governmental level, could kill off many small farmers financially.
    In a letter from the Barbados Agricultural Society (BAS) to Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Indar Weir, a copy of which was obtained by the Weekend Nation, it was stated that the hike in feed prices was as a result of sustained increases in the price of corn on the world markets from $3.50 per bushel up to $7.
    The correspondence, signed by BAS chief executive officer James Paul, stated there were reports that the spot price was already $6.54 per bushel, still way above the average price of corn. It added that these high feed prices were not likely to be transitory, but rather a “new normal”.
    “The reports received on crop expectations in Brazil and the [United States] are not providing any comfort to the livestock industry, with dry conditions continuing in the USA Northern Plains and parts of the Corn Belt, just as a cold front moved into Brazil. The outlook is not good and it does appear a new normal is being established.
    “Consequently, we have met with our farmers and our stakeholders in the industry who are of the view that the price of chicken and other meat products will increase as a result of the increased price of feed,” the letter stated.
    Weir did not comment on the issue, only saying he was otherwise engaged.
    When contacted, Paul said the letter was not intended for public circulation and it would not be appropriate to comment on the issue before talks were held with the minister this weekend.
    The Weekend Nation spoke with senior manager responsible for purchasing at Robert’s Manufacturing, Adrian Yarde, who would only say those prices
    were determined by international factors and could go down should circumstances change.
    However, Layne made it clear this was simply too big a blow for many small poultry farmers to sustain.
    “The 26 per cent is the anticipated increase right now from them, that is what they indicated to us in a meeting. The industry is going to have to respond, or a lot of our farmers are going to be out of business. That response is going to have to be a rise in the price of their products.
    “This is going to impact all livestock farmers, but the chickens are the ones that will be totally dependent on processed feed, so we are going to have some real challenges going ahead. We have not had a price increase in the industry because for years Government has been asking us to hold strain and we have been doing so for donkey years,” said Layne.
    Some farmers have indicated that poultry prices are likely to go up by the same 26 per cent, given that they are already under pressure with increased water bills and cost of transportation. However, Layne said he was not prepared to hazard a guess at this time as much would depend on talks with the minister.
    “We are awaiting a meeting with the Minister of Agriculture to see what he can do to mitigate some of those price increases. I can tell you that Minister Weir has a very good track record of working with us and he has made every effort to help, sometimes reaching across ministries that he does not have direct administration over. So in fairness to him, we need to have that meeting first,” he added.

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • Long road back, says Naitram
    By Barry Alleyne barryalleyne@nationnews.com
    It’s going to be a long, hard road to recovery for the Barbados economy, says president of the Barbados Economic Society, Dr Simon Naitram.
    He was responding to Tuesday’s secondquarter report by Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes which showed the economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the short term, with the Bank maintaining its overall forecast of 1.1 per cent growth for the remainder of 2021.
    Naitram was not that optimistic about a quick turnaround.
    “It’s now clear that this isn’t going to be a swift and easy recovery – the pandemic won’t simply disappear one day. The recovery will be slow, and in the words of the Governor, the best we can hope for over the coming year is ‘strong, but gradual’,” Naitram told the Weekend Nation.
    The economist said one insight from the Governor’s report was that Barbados was at the stage of building a platform for beyond the pandemic. “How we choose to build that platform determines whether the recovery is fair and sustainable over the next two to five years. The increasing frequency of these events – the pandemic, the volcano, the hurricane – requires us to build a more resilient society. Resilience requires greater investment in the NIS [National Insurance Scheme], in health care, in education, in child care, in public housing, in public transport, in welfare,” said the assistant lecturer at the University of the West Indies’ Cave Hill Campus.
    “The need for public investment makes the Government’s fiscal position more difficult.
    Loosening its budget slightly means the Government will reach its debt target of 60 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] later than originally planned, but there is no doubt the moment demands increased spending.”
    Chairman of the Barbados Private Sector Association (BPSA), Edward Clarke, said the quarterly report produced no surprises, and in some instances was rather disappointing for a country trying to rebound.
    Disappointing
    “It was disappointing news because we would have hoped to see some more growth in the quarter, but with the tourism arrivals we did see, it’s not surprising at all. I don’t think we should have expected much more from the economy because of the various stoppages that we’ve had because of the pandemic, the volcanic ash or the storm ( Hurricane Elsa). It is quite evident that we are dependent on tourism, and we need to see tourism back, so a lot will depend on the vaccinations and the ability to attract back the tourism market we had been able to do pre the COVID-19 pandemic.”
    The BPSA head also stressed the need for Government’s capital projects to “take off”, especially with renewable energy”, to drive growth in the productive sectors.
    “We do have to look at changing and diversifying but while supplementing tourism, since it is such a huge driver of our economy through significant capital and human resource investment . . . We also have a services sector that we need to push, especially arts and culture,” Clarke said. President of the Barbados Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Anthony Branker, also pointed to the importance of a resurgent tourism sector.
    “Clearly the economy of Barbados is driven by the tourism industry, and unemployment is still
    around the 17 per cent rate. In order for us to get the private sector going, we need to encourage tourists to come back to the island,” he said.
    Branker added the focus heading into the final part of 2021 should be reassuring visitors that Barbados remained a safe place to visit.

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • Verla calls on Mia to bring Budget
    President of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), Verla De Peiza, yesterday challenged Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley to bring a Budget sooner rather than later.
    In a release, she said Tuesday’s second quarter report on the economy by Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes was enough reason to demand the current administration provide a financial pathway for the country.
    “The statistics of the most recent Central Bank report bear absolutely no relation to the reality faced by many Barbadians today,” De Peiza said.
    “It is meaningless to the average Barbadian to report growth of 5.5 per cent in the economy without stressing what this is when compared to the previous period and/or the same period of last year. Because that is the only context within which it makes sense and we know 5.5 per cent over nothing is really no growth,” she argued.
    The attorney said the scale of the economic recession Barbados found
    itself in called the statistics into question. She noted the lack of growth had taken an enormous toll on households, on businesses, on jobs and opportunities.
    “This is compounded by this Government’s failure to care and mitigate these outcomes by creating a safety net for its people,” she said, while asking why there had been no extended access to unemployment benefits, as done by the former DLP administration with less resources than what the current Government continually boasts of.
    “Why have there been no holistic measures to cushion the impact of rising prices in the market?” she asked. “What makes matters even worse is this Government’s failure to honour its promise to workers to secure their severance payments. Hundreds still cannot get from their former employers.
    “All of these issues can be addressed ably by the presentation of a Budget. The country needs a clear policy plan. This would provide direction for a planned recovery, as opposed to the current perception of this Government holding its breath while waiting for tourism to take a breath.”
    De Peiza, whose leadership of the DLP will be challenged next month, said a Budgetary Proposal would also set out a road map for diversification of the economy, particularly in relation to agriculture, which ought not to be allowed to flounder at so critical a juncture in the island’s history. (BA/PR)

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • What is Starbucks a good sign of Minister? Another example of imported taste?

    Symmonds: Starbucks a good sign
    Despite challenges facing Barbados’ economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ash fall from the La Soufriere volcano and Hurricane Elsa, the country remains open for investment, and international coffee house Starbucks’ new operation is a clear signal of that.
    So said Minister of Energy, Small Business and Entrepreneurship Kerrie Symmonds while speaking during its media launch yesterday at One Haggatt Hall, Haggatt Hall, St Michael.
    “Barbados must remain open for business and we as a people must do all the things that are necessary in order to help this country stay afloat and to help us as individuals and families collectively to be able to hold body and soul together. I warmly welcome this investment,” he said.
    The minister said there were some clear similarities in terms of social-economic realities between 1937 and today, and urged Barbadians to never be so foolish as to bury their heads, like the ostrich, in the sand.
    “We in Barbados today are caught in a vice-grip between social and economic circumstances that are more out of the COVDI-19 pandemic. They have mushroomed into very difficult economic conditions, not only here but globally.
    “We feel already the sense of sacrifice that many fellow Barbadians must endure because the quality of life that they enjoyed prior to COVID-19 they simply cannot experience today,” he said, adding that it was not business as usual for Barbados.
    Caribbean Coffee Traders Ltd (CCTL) regional director for Starbucks, Roxanne Rose, said the idea to set up shop in Barbados had been brewing for some time. She said Barbados was the fifth Caribbean market where they had opened, adding to Jamaica, Turks and Caicos, Cayman Islands and Panama.
    “In these unprecedented times, we’ve all had to work harder to stay connected while staying safe. So, it’s important that we create a welcoming environment while continuing to keep the health and well-being
    of our partners and customers top of mind,” she said.
    She added they had partnered with local recruitment agencies and would employ about 15 baristas to help locals enjoy the Starbucks experience. ( RA)

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • https://barbadostoday.bb/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Marla-Dukharan-730×456.jpg
    Dukharan lashes EU financial attacks

    Article by Marlon Madden
    Published on
    July 29, 2021

    A Barbados-based regional economist is blasting the European Union (EU) on its blacklisting of small island states, which she says reeks of racism and was 21st century economic warfare.

    Marla Dukharan, an economist, and former senior economic advisor to Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Caribbean operations, ripped the

    EU in one of her most forceful denunciation of the Europeans.

    Writing in her July Economic Review in a commentary titled From Blackbirding to Blacklisting – The EU’s Ongoing Subjugation of Vanuatu, she condemned the decision to blacklist Vanuatu, one of the world’s poorest countries, which was also suffering through a pandemic. She said the group of islands which was recovering from the damage of a Category 5 Cyclone, was placed not only on one EU blacklist but two, for alleged tax and anti-money laundering/counter financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) non-compliance.

    The EU, Dukharan pointed out, took the action against the South Pacific country, even though it was cleared by the “globally recognised tax and AML/CFT authorities”.

    According to the economist: “This, when only an estimated US$7 million in corporate tax revenue is ‘lost’ annually due to zero-corporate tax, while an estimated six trillion in euros is managed in never-blacklisted Luxembourg, for example.”

    Last year, the EU blacklisted Barbados, despite the island clearing the legislative hurdles prescribed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Finance Action Task Force (FATF). In a scathing critique the Europeans’ actions, Dukharan added: “How could this ever be justifiable? Furthermore, it is quite the bureaucratic and statistical feat that the European

    Union concocted and executed a methodology for their blacklists, so complex, so sophisticated, so precise, and ultimately so effective in achieving their true intent, that it produced not one, but two blacklists, where not one single country is predominantly white.”

    The economist added: “It is embarrassing that even EU Members of Parliament highlighted the fact that jurisdictions currently on the EU tax haven blacklist account for less than two per cent of worldwide tax revenue losses, and that EU ‘member states forgot something when composing it: actual tax havens.”

    Describing the EU’s blacklists as “farcical” and “devoid of any shred of credibility or validity”, Dukharan slammed the EU’s overreach into the sovereignty of an independent nation as “grossly disproportionate treatment” and “shamefully discriminatory”.

    In her hard-hitting broadside of the EU, Dukharan said: “The EU’s blacklists represent indisputable examples of entrenched institutional racism and bullying. The penalties being imposed on Vanuatu have the potential to damage its economy irreparably. This is nothing short of economic warfare. Especially in the context of the pandemic, the EU’s behaviour is totally unjustifiable.

    “The EU’s Blacklists are a clear manifestation of Europeans’ longstanding penchant for domination, exploitation, and brutality, which evidently continues unabated even today.”
    (IMC1)

    Source: Barbados Today

    Like

  • @David

    Good articles as you can see the concern of the economist and business people Is the same. They sole concern is getting back to pre covid levels of economic activity. Mr Clarke went as far as calling the 5% a ” disappointment ” and he is correct. How can one be happy with a 5% recovery when you was closed last year for most of the same dam period! Or as Depeiza said 5% up from nothing ain’t worth mentioning.

    What we must also remember is that many countries including the USA, will reach pre covid levels of economic activity this year in the 3rd and 4th quarter, so our concern should be when based on our current growth will we get there? Also remember we still have to deal with inflation as well which will effect true net growth to the average Barbadian’s financial reality.

    Like

  • @John A

    Our problem is that with COVID 19 having positioned leisure travel in a headlock we will not experience the usual bounce from a surging US (and others) economy.

    Like

  • @David

    That is why 18 months ago when may of us were here calling for diversification of the economy it should have been done. Today we could of had a vibrant alternative energy sector and a strong food base using greenhouses and technology. Instead we sit here waiting for the return of the Golden days of tourism which hopefully some day will be back.

    Like

  • About 1 year the greatest /diversed economy In the world was experiencing post covid growth But still not back to pre covid. Y’et some seems to expext a little one track pony to be back at the first quarter of turn around to positive growth

    Like

  • @ John2 July 30, 2021 9:45 AM

    The journey of any economic recovery of a thousand miles on any path to earn forex must begin with the first step.

    How come you- and the likes of the Guv- have all gone silent on the many private sector and FDI projects which have been in the construction pipeline for the past 5 years?

    Have they all be abandoned because the future of hotel-based tourism is no longer seen bright and the paper-drawn Lighthouse overlooking the bay has gone dim?

    When is that economic miracle worker called Hyatt going to come on the scene driven in a duty-free Merc to rescue Bridgetown and Barbados?

    Why is there so much ‘stony’ silence on the ‘concrete’ status of that economic game-changing project?

    Like

  • Miller

    I an sure u have never heard me pushing any project that wasnt started.
    I would have listed them by name to make a point . If You Can find any infomations of me pusshing any that was not started the please direct me to it

    As for the guv, there is a phone number and e-mail address fo CBB

    As for hyatt. Maybe malmoney knows u like sitting on his erection and is waiting until You g’et OFF

    Like

  • @ John2 July 30, 2021 11:39 AM

    But Jonnny No.2, aren’t you the BU political mouthpiece of the economic performance of the current administration the same way angela cox is its biggest ‘yellow’ critic and dye-in-the wool apologist for the previous one?

    Aren’t you the one who is seeing economic green shoots to take the economy back to a pre-Covid period based on the Guv’s forecast?

    How can there ever a rebound in tourism to save the country from economic dislocation when there is no confidence in the future of the industry?

    The miller is not the one who cut the ceremonial ribbon at the grand turning of the sod to announce a May 2020 rise to the Hyatt erection.

    It was your own boss lady.

    As for sitting on Malmoney’s erection, well, how can a person raise the dead even if she prays to Priapus instead of the resurrected Jesus.

    The man has really screwed your administration with his lumbering concrete tool.

    Like

  • The 5% growth is not good news at all if it is for the same period of 2021 over 2020.

    Jeeze! ABC and 123.

    Still not listening to foolishness. A primary school child would know that when so many people in his household and neighbourhood have lost their jobs, things brown, brown, brown!

    And if all Mummy and Daddy are doing is borrowing, things will get browner.

    Like

  • And if mom and sad dont borrow we going sleep with kess and less lin Our stomach Every night and more people Will ve laud off so them kids Will be just like us

    Like

  • Miller

    I May be the mouth piece of whom at whatcever tou want me to be but You Will not choose what topic i chooce to speak on

    Again. Show me anytime where i have spoken on a project that wasnt not started
    And more precisely – where i have spoken In support of or against ur favorite erection that only come up when You put ur mouth on it

    Like

  • Along with the borrowing must be a plan to enable pay back.

    Like

  • Worthy of mention.

    “Steady” rise in new business registration –

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/07/30/steady-rise-in-new-business-registration/

    Like

  • Mom and Daddy are paying the mortgage and the car note when they are due

    There is also and adjusted graph to show the expect decline In paypments/ gdp until about 2030 or there about

    Like

  • The problem we have is the many unvaccinated and grossly overweight locals. Once our government has shot 500,000 doses of Moderna or Biontech-Pfizer into the arms of the native masses and subjected them to a strict diet for 12 months, they will all be in such great shape that Corona will not be able to harm them.

    We won’t get far with the AZ vaccine from India and the Chinese brew, unfortunately. In addition, there are the numerous superstitious natives who categorically refuse vaccinations for reasons of their natural religion (just like the ISO Taliban).

    So I expect three or four more years of economic doom. This is precisely why we need opium for the people, to quote Marx. This time not an individual religion, but our national religion, i.e. the proclamation of the republic. It will make our masses forget that they are totally cut off economically.

    Only our Supreme Leader can help us now. Hear us!

    Like

  • John 2 why are you wasting time with the naysayers on here most of them dems.Any recovery far less 5% is good news.After all we had covid 19 , the ashfall, hurricane elsa , the freak storm and WE STILL STANDING. due to proper leadership in these times.I shudder to think where Barbados would have been under the Dems and Mr Stuart most likely ducks guts.Therefore i believe we are on our way back up despite the naysayers some of whom has a problem with borrowing.I wonder how we would have survived as a country without in these trying times ?I gone.

    Like

  • John 2,

    Don’t mind Lorenzo! He is a Bee.

    A blasted foolish one too who believes only praise should be lavished on his Chosen One.

    I am worried about Barbados. That fool obviously does not understand that growth of 5% in 2021 over the same period of 2020 is simply a function of the country coming out from lockdown and restarting economic activity.

    Having prepared accounting reports using the same statistical methodology and analysis, I know what I am talking about.

    But even common sense would have told me that.

    Like

  • When analysing economic performance any significant increases or decreases have to be explained before one can determine whether or not the news is good.

    Besides, have we reached where we were in 2019? That would be a better gauge of our position.

    I know we haven’t. Don’t need to check.

    Like

  • The correct term is BASE YEAR. The base year chosen is very important in any statistical analysis. One can give any impression one wants by chosing a favourable base year.

    It is a tactic that allows statistics to tell the truth and LIE at the same time.

    Here the Governor is using the NORMAL method of analysis and reporting in ABNORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. The resulting favourable impression is therefore meaningless.

    Like

  • Do more for business

    Barbados and other Caribbean countries will become unattractive to investors unless they get more serious about facilitating business activity.
    Massy Holdings Group president and chief executive officer Gervase Warner sounded that warning while participating in a panel discussion earlier this week in the Central Bank’s 41st Annual Review Seminar.
    The Trinidadian business executive called having to deal with multiple regulators in the Caribbean a “great nuisance” to business, adding the region’s firms would prefer to have one “robust” stock exchange.
    He also urged the region to mobilise its financial resources to solve its own problems, rather than relying too much on foreign investors.
    “We keep running into trouble . . . because we continue to find convenient answers like, ‘Well, just standardise the regulations’ and not really go for the full hog of a common regulator because, ‘Well, that’s just in the too-hard-to-do box’,” Warner lamented.
    Great inefficiencies
    “But in the meantime, we suffer from great inefficiencies, duplication and quite frankly we make our territories less attractive for investment.
    “Capital goes where it’s welcome and where it feels it can grow, and until and unless we get an attitude that we are really serious about creating the most competitive economic space in this region for our people to benefit and grow into, I think we will continue to stymie the potential that we have in our small island developing states with some unique, beautiful characteristics that could have us be just phenomenal,” he warned.
    Warner told the online session he was “definitely in favour of developing real economies of scale in operations, and for me that means in CARICOM really looking beyond just our island market economies and looking towards the entire CARICOM.
    “But we have to do a better job of making the rest of CARICOM accessible as a domestic market to any and every one of us individually. The CARICOM Single Market and Economy is really not delivering on . . . the vision that was created,” he said.
    Cross-listed shares Massy, which is based in Trinidad and Tobago, recently cross-listed its shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. Warner said this was with a view to getting the best possible returns at a time when the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange was not performing as well as it had in the past.
    He said Caribbean firms would prefer one regulator and a single market to trade their shares.
    “I think that if you talk to any publicly traded entity that operates in multiple jurisdictions in CARICOM, we would all prefer for us to have one stock exchange where we could all be traded and have a good . . . economy of scale in a platform that could drive benefit, that is much more robust than having all of these multiple small exchanges with small participation in individual islands,” he noted.
    “If you would ask any of us would we like to have one financial services commission or one financial services regulator for banks and insurance companies, absolutely!
    “It’s a great nuisance to deal with 14 different regulators, particularly with all of the new regulations that are coming out that are really internationally driven and affect us as
    small entities. Small entities having to manage relationships with multiple regulators is a cost which then makes us uncompetitive, and we don’t understand that’s the reason that we make ourselves uncompetitive,” Warner said.
    (SC)

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • Applications up to 67

    Bajans urged to reflect
    With Kadooment Day and Emancipation Day being celebrated on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, Acting Prime Minister Santia Bradshaw is urging Barbadians to use the break for a time of reflection on the past and future.
    She made the comments after being sworn in as Acting Prime Minister by Governor General Dame Sandra Mason, as Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley went on holiday yesterday until August 18.
    Bradshaw told Barbadians she wanted them to appreciate this was not a normal environment “we were operating in”.
    “Most of us would have no doubt been in costumes and would have been revelling during the upcoming holidays. However, I think that this is going to be a time of reflection of not only the past, but also looking forward to the future as well. I want to encourage Barbadians to adhere to the protocols,” she said. (BGIS) Just over six months after Barbados officially opened up its medicinal cannabis industry, there has been a near 200 per cent increase in the number of applications across the eight categories of licences.
    This has occurred, says chief executive officer of the Barbados Medicinal Cannabis Licensing Authority, Dr Shantal Munro-Knight, despite a more than two-month setback due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
    She revealed that the number of applications in draft had grown from 15 in January to 67. However, no medicinal cannabis licences have been issued for any of the categories.
    Munro-Knight was outlining the plans for the burgeoning local sector during a webinar hosted by the Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry yesterday.
    She pointed out, however, that only one application had been fully submitted thus far while a further six were awaiting the receipt of additional documentation. An application is only considered to have been submitted if it is accompanied by all of the requisite documentation, the payments have been made and it is going through the four-month vetting process.
    “We have not issued any licences and that is one of the things that is creating confusion because people are bringing in medicinal cannabis products that come through the Ministry of Health and Wellness. The process would have started in January 2021, and we have 67 applications in draft at the moment.
    “Across the drafts we would have had applications for all eight categories, which includes areas such as cultivation and processing. In one case, we have two applicants that have applied for seven licences, but we are seeing most of the applicants going towards cultivation and retail distributor.”
    Munro-Knight said that despite licences not being issued, the interest thus far augured well for the sector, with Barbados on par or, in some cases, ahead of its regional counterparts at the same stage of the game.
    “. . . For us at this stage to have the number of applications, we count that as extremely good when we do an informal comparison with our regional counterparts when they started.
    “We have only been open
    for six months – January 18 was when we opened for applications – and to have seven that are entrained to come through is a good pace and it gives us a good indication of the trends.”
    Munro-Knight said the multibillion-dollar global industry had grown within the environment of COVID-19 as people were now clamouring for alternative therapeutics.
    (CLM)

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • “Because the sharp economic decline last year was due to a mandated lockdown of domestic commerce and tourism, an avoidance of lockdowns in 2021 and a safe reopening to tourism would have ushered in double-digit economic growth this year. Economists call this type of growth ‘base effects’, that is, a climb back from a very low base of economic activity,” he further explained.

    Forte said the Central Bank report “merely verified that the risks posed to Barbados’ economic recovery by government’s missteps have come home to roost”.


    Source: Barbados Today

    Like

  • @John A
    It appears that the 5:18 post is consistent with what you stated here.

    Like

  • @Theo

    Yes the Barbados Today article locally and those in the Financial Times, Bloomberg , Fortune and many others are all saying the same thing. Their point of reference is a return to pre covid economic activity. Anything else is not even being discussed now. As for the USA I read yesterday that they are confident when the July numbers come in they will be back to pre covid economic levels. Germany and many others will be there sometime between the 3rd and 4th quarter. Some of the smaller economies are also confident they will be there by the end of the 3rd quarter. Once that happens then of course we can start back doing year to year comparisons and be accurate on speaking to true net growth.

    You have to remember too many of these economies only lost like 10% of their value as they were well diversified economies. Basically unlike us who insist on having a 1 leg economy built on tourism, they have many irons in the fire. So even the small diversified economies will be back to pre covid levels by year end. We on the other hand who refuse to diversify, will languish behind them for years probably, even though we have low hanging fruit like alternative energy and food production we can move on quickly.

    We will of course spend our time discussing a republic instead.

    Like

  • @John A

    An intelligent people should be able to ‘walk and chew gum’ at the same time.

    Like

  • Donna

    5.5 % is not good new.

    You would have to explain that further. Is it not good news that there is some positive growth or is the growth not good enuff news ( as we all would like it to be a lot more)?

    lets look at it from your base year 2019. In q2 2020 (lock down period) the economy had negative (decreased by) 27% growth. That is it still generated 73% 0f 2019 economic activity even though we were shut down (not 0).

    We are now back to 78.5% of 2019 q2 gdp

    What activities happened in 2021 q2 that we would have a greater increase the the 5.5%?
    Yes, we opened back up but wasn’t it a gradual reopening from the shut down earlier this year? Wasnt there still and still is certain restraints in place.

    Maybe the loss of tourism (only) knocked 22 % off the economy and the shut down knocked off another 5% and that has now returned in this report.

    The difference in tourist arrivals was just over 10K. how much or what %age does that give to GDP?

    I stand with my fellow bumble bee Lorenzo the 5.5% and any positive growth is good. it is way better than negative 5.5% or any negative growth which would have be not good (bad)

    would i have preferred it to be 10.15, 20%? sure!
    But on the ground what happened that would push it so high?

    Like

  • @John2

    You are arguing nonsense. The sensible thing is to always invoke meaning to numbers for it to make sense.

    Like

  • Of course the 5:18 post agrees with what John A said.

    Common sense should have sufficed.

    If you are shut and you open, you will have growth in activity.

    You don’t need to study economics at university to understand that.

    You know statistics. That is enough. The analytical methodology is not specific to economics.

    It’s all about the base year.

    We KNOW we cannot be back to 2019 levels.

    We could not have expected it without major changes in what we are doing.

    What we need to do, while we figure out how to earn more foreign exchange is SAVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE.

    Simple things like reducing electricity generated from oil imports and growing more of our own food would help.

    Every citizen also can do their part on an individual basis by conserving water and reducing electricity use, driving less and buying local when available. Every little bit helps.

    Like

  • … and mathematically incorrect.
    If you had 100 dollars and it decrease to $73, then a 5.5% increase is not $5.5 ($4.02). it is positive but smaller than you think.

    Hate to be petty, but it may convince some that their thinking is deeply flawed.

    Like

  • I had to mention John A for what he wrote was dismissed as ‘BS’. It was really a snipe😀

    Like

  • John 2,

    Let me try one more time!

    Growth was INEVITABLE as soon as we opened back up!

    You are doing spin. Of course, it would have been bad news if we had opened up and there was no growth. But 5% growth will not save us from ruin.

    It kinda like if your glass had a single sip of water and you filled it up five percent more. Still less than half full. More than half empty.

    You will eventually die of thirst.

    Like

  • For economic reports – (and this has be so from the time the lion at gun hill was a cub) – the standard is to report q/q and or y/y this has been as is so for the CB of Barbados , St lucia, Guyana, USA, Britian etc and even business line GM, Ford , Amazon , Cave Shepard. Massy, Goddards, etc.

    Its then left up to individuals/ companies to compares those reports with any period that the want to.

    For example USA will report growth of x% for q2 2021 when compared to q2 2020. Reporter and economists on CNBC, bloomberg, financial times etc are the one who will then compared that report back to pre covid time ( or in other reccessions to the time before the recession started).

    There is a difference between an economic report and an economist report. The economist use the economic report to make their reports/comments. The economic report is the standard CB or company report – it follow the same pattern of reporting over and over and over, q after q after q after q , y after y after , y after y ( from the time the lion was a cub ).

    Even foolish me first took a look to see where were compared to last year then i check to see compared to 1919 you dont need to have an economic back ground to know or understand that.

    Like

  • ok donna

    I got it. the 5% was not good enuff for you. you want you glass to be full from the first drop of water.

    Like

  • Donna pea brain you are not the only one with an accounting background on here.I also have a background in accounting and economics so your calling fancy terms ain, t saying nothing.Normally when comparing quarters you compare with the year before not two or ten years before..How many international countries have reached pre covid standards?I stand with John 2 that any growth in this period without a major contribution from tourism is good news..At least until tourism fully opens back up.As far as borrowing is concerned one has to survive today before you can think of tomorrow and any repayment.

    Like

  • TheO

    Yes you are

    I was not being exact
    u can call names too

    Like

  • For some of us looking at real improvement the baseline has to be pre Covid performance. The governor can report based on standard presentation format, for some of us looking at the performance of Barbados economy being sustained to ensure quality of life, we are not convinced. This is where honest commentary must start.

    Like

  • and once again

    The CB report has in a chart that you can compare 2021, to 2020 to 2019 …. etc if you need that infomation.

    Like

  • We are not taking about looking at a chart. We are discussing the talking points, what the media is running with, the political spin.

    Like

  • David

    That commentary will/ is coming for outside of the central bank and after its report. as is happening all over the world economies

    Like

  • Did you see the headline in the Nation newspaper?

    Our leaders have a responsibility to set realistic expectations for regular folk.

    Like

  • david

    No. when check the nation this morning it did not have that in. and i am not subscribed to the nation so i g=dont get the full article/s

    If there is a problem with the CB reporting then just send a note or by now he probably noted the concerns.
    I remember a time last year where i ask you here on BU to ask him to make an adjustment on his reporting and for the next couple of reports he did.

    Like

  • The headline was “5.5% Growth”.

    Like

  • Fleabrain,

    Judging from the quality of your contributions I find it hard to believe that you have the background you stated. You are semi-literate at best. I don’t know anybody with that background who thinks or communicates as poorly as you do.

    John 2,

    You are soooo missing my point! I am saying that with the covid situation being what it is, with tourism not likely to rebound in the foreseeable future, we are in serious trouble.

    We cannot sit here waiting for covid to go away. We have to start looking at how we are going to survive without normal levels of tourism.

    I am not hearing any drastic change in mindset towards our economy. There is nothing that will effect an immediate turn around but we must start yesterday.

    This pandemic is not the fault of this administration. I have no quarrel with their handling of the situation so far.

    The resulting poor economic performance is not the fault of this administration either.

    But we must look to the future! 5% will not sustain us.

    What are we going to do about it besides borrow, beg the world powers to do right (lol) and wait for tourism to return?

    We cannot borrow our way out of this. That is the equivalent of being on life support. Necessary but not desirable. Eventually the machines will be turned off.

    We CANNOT trust the world powers to do the right thing by us. Look at Biden’s tax plan!

    We cannot depend on rebounding tourism. The virus is running rampant again.

    I am saying that the Government is tinkering whereas we need to have serious conversations about how we are going to build a new engine as quickly as possible.

    What is our plan?

    Like

  • @Donna
    When it comes to being correct you have a 95% rating.
    The missing 5%?. When you disagree with me 😃

    @Lorenzo
    This comedian tried and failed again.

    Like

  • Donna you can believe what you like i do not give a rat, s ass.You are full of yourself with sa lot of self praise which old people always state is no praise.I can say the same for you as generally you post a lot of shite.Therefore i also think of you as semi literate but enough of you.I am wasting valuable time debating with an idiot.

    Like

  • I am not hearing any drastic change in mindset towards our economy.** There is nothing that will effect an immediate turn around but we must start yesterday.**

    Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Donna

    Data a lir to g’et my head around at the present time . Lets start by tou expanding and the hughlighted part – it seems conflicting to what i Think You are trying to say ( at my first Reading of it).
    As it Seem to me that You are expecting a dramitic turn around

    In other words u Got me a bit confused

    Like

  • We cannot sit here waiting for covid to go away. We have to start looking at how we are going to survive without normal levels of tourism.

    Agree that covid is not going away….. but neither are we going back to the level of shut down that we had in early covid.
    with the vaccinations going on tourism will be playing a greater roll in our recovery. The sit here and waiting period has passed.

    Like

  • Fleabrain,

    Not even Mia would agree with you on that.

    Ask enuff!

    Like

  • And romanizing a 5.5% growth in an economy almost 100 dependent on tourism is the concern.

    Like

  • John 2,

    No, no, NO!

    NOT A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND! A PLAN FOR TURNING IT AROUND IN THE FUTURE!

    P.S. In case you have not noticed, viruses MUTATE. THIS VIRUS IS MUTATING RAPIDLY. VACCINE EFFICACY IS NOT GUARANTEED AGAINST NEW VARIANTS. THE SITUATION HAS WORSENED. THIS IS NOT DONE YET. YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT.

    It is better to plan for the worst while hoping for the best.

    Like

Join in the discussion, you never know how expressing your view may make a difference.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s