Barbados based pollster Peter Wickham of CADRES has drawn the ire of UWI, Cave Hill Lecturer Dr. Tennyson Joseph. A recent CADRES poll has determined that the St. Lucia general elections called for 6 June 2015 too close to call. St. Lucian Joseph served briefly as the Administrative Attaché to the Prime Minister of St. Lucia Kenny Anthony between 2000 and 2003 and is vested in the politics of that country.

In a radio interview with St. Lucia radio talk show host Shelton Daniel, Joseph dealt harshly with Wickham’s narrow analysis and attempt to use ‘political sleight of hand’ to manipulate public opinion leading into the general elections. Joseph has advised Wickham to remove himself from the political paymasters (BU’s characterization).

Relevant Link: St Lucia election ‘too close to call’

160 responses to “Dr.Tennyson Joseph Rubbishes Peter Wickham’s CADRES”


  1. I recall recently reading an article submitted to BU, on December 31, 2007, by Peter Wickham, entitled “THE POLITICS OF INCLUSION REVISITED,” in which he sought to critique the then Owen Arthur administration.

    At that time Wickham was held in high regard by supporters of the DLP and did not have to endure the pejorative characterizations being constantly hurled at him by the same DLP supporters, which has now become the norm.

    BEWARE OF YARD-FOWLS!!!!!!!!!!


  2. @ AC.

    Had to blur he face cause bribes was mentioned.

    I still working on the “You got 5 years to change it or you are out” message

    Of course you do know that that message is not for your peoples wunna gone fuh 15 years easily, through de effing eddoes

    @ Artaxerxes

    Talk whu you like she deposed Kenny as sure as day followeth night.

    It was a campaign experiment and it worked.

    I have no problem with Peter/Lucille/Debbie going where they please to get work but as i have said before AND I AM NOT A DLP PALING COCK, it was tasteless to be in the man’s country with your operatives.

    WUNNA ND TO TEK CARE DAT WHILE WUNNA FLYING BACK IN, dat wunna tek pictures of de contents of wunna luggage, lest, on arrival, a batch uh heroin get put in um.

    I dont put anything past these effers, all two both of them.

    Imagine the news

    “Leader of the Opposition arrested at Grantley Adams Airport with trafficable quantity of herb”

    Breaking news, on leaving STL the jubilant LoE was so ecstatic to have deposed Kenny Anthony that she transported some Wacky Tabaccy back to Bulbados.

    Dale Smiley Teets Marshall counsel for the LoE when interviewed said “it is preposterous and shows the depths to which the Demonic Labour party can sink in its attempt to oust the LoE soon to be PM (and dash my chances to be AG again jes so.)

    I tink i unnerstand how you does do you research thing now.

    But that is all good.

    I am not here to expose patriots and people who want to advance the country.

    I heah to depose inepts and despots and encourage, and support, loyalists, men and women who are “Bajan fuh Life”.

    And even though you got that chink in your armour, so are you, so are you


  3. Waiting: did I give a definite result for 2018? Maybe, you might have premonitions that your party will come in second. With me, I don’t give a damn because I never sing in no politician’s choir. I gave observation based on human behaviour and as usual, yardfowls like you and your political brood responding without any pedigree persists in jumping all over the place cackling and crying FOWL. Unfortunate despots.

  4. Jeff Cumberbatch Avatar
    Jeff Cumberbatch

    UWP won 11 seats to 6. -Chastenet new PM of St Lucia!

    http://www.stlucianewsonline.com/elections-2016/


  5. This Poster was Created through the vision of AC

    This is part of Legion that supports the Demonic Labour party.

    Recently she has been proposing some good ideas (AGAINST HER WILL?)

    You must give AC her jacket for it only goes to prove “a broken clock is right twice a day” or, in regular bajan parlance “every fool got dem sense”

    http://imgur.com/tk8WGwi


  6. I am going to use a combination of Bush Tea’s 10 point plan and Are We there Yet’s suggestions to submit what are suggestions for their 5 year tasks.

    Failing which we just vote them out en masse cause it would appear like nothing else ent wukking so if we damage their prospects for a pension by brekking up that 10 year spree, when a feller sees that they might never be voted in again, they are liable to “fly right” and give us what we have been voting for them and then begging them for.

    IT IS TIME TO DUN BEGGING POLITICIANS FUH TINGS.

    WHEN YOU KICK A MAN IN HE SEEDS DEM DOES DOAN HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO UNNERSTAND WHU HOLES IN DE ROAD DOES DO TUH A POOR MAN BALLS WHEN HE RIDING A BICYCLE TO WORK EVERY DAY AND DROP IN A HOLE (NOT A HO’ DOAH I AM AM RELIABLY INFORMED DAT SUM UH DEM CAN BREK YOU UP TOO)

    I have stolen the CAPS from my colleague and doctor because I am shouting like a voice in this cyberspace wilderness.

    Anyway I got to go and celebrate wid de fellers in STL so I gine talk wid wunna tomorrow. Sorry later today.


  7. Keep hating the messenger and denouncing the message (facts). Some are so consumed with the former that they rushed to post a “letter to the editor” from the St.Lucian newspaper which argued that PW never “guessed” a poll right. Well he has his “first” now. Who laughs last, laughs best.


  8. @enuff

    Let us listen to Dr.Joseph’s response.

    Remember Peter if Cadres stated the election was too close to call. Was it close?

    Congrats to Chastenet!


  9. NO! lets hear how Peter Wickham defines too close to call, and still declares his polling analysis was correct , He would need a Houdini to weasel out of this one
    The fact being that in almost every election that Peter Wickham has be involved in polling he has used “The too close to call” get out of jail card


  10. The problem some of you have is comprehension. The labour party’s concerns in St. Lucia was about the conversations Wickham injects into the political landscape which some believe goes a long way to influencing an election. It is was not about polling methodology per se.


  11. On Sunday Wickham said the swing was at 1.7%, 2% was required for victory and support appears to be TRENDING TOWARDS THE UWP. Just accept he called it right, like i did in 2008. No need for the desperation. Message not messenger; disagreement not hatred.


  12. David your spin of direction to tell others in which way to take the narrative is insulting. The fact being that all of PW analysis on the STL election is subject to scrunity not only those that pleases your politcal taste.


  13. Is this going to be the political trend in the Caribbean?
    St. Kitts – new Government;
    Guyana – new Government;
    Trinidad – new Government;
    Anguilla – New Government;
    Jamaica – new Government;
    St. Lucia – new Government;

    Only Belize; St. Vincent and British Virgin Island were able to be victorious.


  14. Pieceuhderockyeahright June 6, 2016 at 11:36 PM #

    “And even though you got that chink in your armour, so are you, so are you”

    @ PUDRYR

    Wuh you mean by “And even though you got that chink in your armour…..?” You mean I got one uh dem insects that de ole people used to say dat wuz in dem beds?

    Piece, the DLP yard-fowls who enter the “halls of BU” to push their stupid political agenda and spew DLP propaganda usually forget that when they accuse or criticize the BLP of some issue, they were satisfied when similar issues occurred under a DLP administration.

    I always present the alternative to successfully illustrate their stupidity.

    Surely the DLP could do better than the AC consortium of yard-fowls, Bajangetuhlife, Lt. Horatio Caine, Waiting and Alvin Cummins. They are STRONG in writing shiite, but extremely WEAK in presenting solid political facts to enable the engagement of a robust and informed political debate. They are “corned-beef and biscuit,” “half bottle of white rum” supporters.

    Yard-fowlism is about hypocrisy…….. BEWARE OF YARD FOWLS!!!!!!!


  15. The DLP’s fate will be worse, a lot worse.


  16. In the final analysis the upcoming (very soon too) election will be that the DLP will lose and retain maybe a maximum of 4 seats:-

    David Estwick
    Donville Inniss
    Michael Lashley
    Mara Thompson

    The rest of the clowns gine get SMOKE.


  17. Fools it is never good to count chickens before they hatch..just saying


  18. Kenny Anthony “counted chickens before they hatch… just saying…”


  19. Couldnt care less about St.lucia politics.
    But this i do remember all tbe blp yardfowls counting their chickens before they hatch in the last general election being led or misled by the bigest Hen
    Counter Petwer Wickham and the rest is history


  20. @ David,

    Any chance of some white Bajans following Chastenet’s lead and entering politics ?


  21. @Hants

    No.


  22. Beg my pardon, but Ronald Toppin look like Chastanet to me…any chance he would be considered a ‘White boy’ by local standards or he was just high red when he went school. Just asking a stupid question.

    Ain’t politics about ambition, ego and sometimes a desire to effect wonderful change. Another stupid question.

    Doesn’t Bizzy and COW displaying all a dem things already. Third stupidy query.

    Peeps look up and remove the blinkers, nah.

    Dis is not a Barrow time. This is 2016. You don’t need to be in elective power to make a difference now. In fact any real impact will be made outside that bunch of coneys.


  23. This is not a Barrow Time and for sure not a Mia time for she has proven that she does not have the ability to walk and chew gum at the same time with all the misstep she has made in her political life.
    Mia got be the easiest political target there ever been not because of what she has done but because of not able to get any thing right .
    Her biggest gaffe being of recent sticking her nose into the political affair of another country
    When one think that Mia would have learnt to stay away from two footed political imbeciles she digs her heels into the hog pen of political sh,t
    No wonder OSA had asked PM stuart to take Mia off his hands


  24. did any body here Miss Hen Peter Wickham strutting her stuff on VOB today while salavating on those things that recently happened in Stlucia one would have thought that Miss Hen was a born and bread Lucian but for those of us who knows better understands the meaning of actions speaking louder than words


  25. Past Zone June 7, 2016 at 10:39 AM #

    The DLP’s fate will be worse, a lot worse.

    nothing could b worse than on those fatal days when OSA decapitated the head off the body of MIA and left the BLP yardfowls in mourning , Still up to present time Mia still walking around headless directed by a peacock

  26. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ ac June 7, 2016 at 6:38 PM
    “No wonder OSA had asked PM stuart to take Mia off his hands”

    Oh how the goddess of retribution always works in wondrous ways!
    And you see how Stuart obeyed and took the same OSA off the people’s hands by driving the final nasty nail in OSA’s political coffin to stop him ever being PM again?

    But then again OSA might just be a political vampire which has recently bitten you in the backside and infected both you and Stuart with the bloody Privatization virus.


  27. I cannot believe a so-called political scientist can jump to the conclusion that the UWP won due to bought votes. How pathetic for an excuse. Over 46,000 voted for the UWP…Are you telling me that these voters would have taken bribes? You need to have a crash program in Political Science from Peter. Dr. Joseph, I am disappointed in your analysis.


  28. The SLP got 37172 votes and the UWP 46164 or 8992 more votes than the SLP.


  29. In the first pass the pole system it is by numbers by constituency which matter.

  30. BEWARE OF YARD-FOWLS!!!!! Avatar
    BEWARE OF YARD-FOWLS!!!!!

    A yard-fowl’s comments presently:

    “No wonder OSA had asked PM stuart to take Mia off his hands.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    A previous comment from the SAME YARD-FOWL as it relates to: “No wonder OSA had asked PM stuart to take Mia off his hands.”

    “ac February 18, 2013 at 6:56 AM #: look no matter how far back the note goes it goes to his character and the many calculating or in this case miscalculating devious ways and methods he would use to get his way even if it means using his opponents. This guy is EVIL and cannot be trusted. TOO much POWER in the hands of one person is not good. 14years is more than enough. SAY NO TO OSA he is corrupt! CORRUPTION has no place in politics, First MIA next COUNTRY> BYE ! BYE! OSA! ENUFF is ENUFF!”

    “ac February 18, 2013 at 12:19 PM #: most people must have to the conclusion having reading that note that OSA is not normal. Something got to be wrong with the brain. For such actions are out of the realm of normalcy. To think he would give the opposition that kind of ammunition is mind boggling.”

    Yard-fowls have no credibility, they change their position when it is politically expedient or to suit their political agenda at a given or convenient time.

    BEWARE OF YARD-FOWLS!!!!!


  31. It’s another minority government in St Lucia.46% chose not to vote,23% voted for the SLP and 29% voted for the UWP.Something is wrong when so many chose not to support a political party,yet our ‘Westminster’ system allows them to control a people’s destiny for 5 years with almost limitless power in the hands of one individual.Its a system that cries out for revision,in particular the instituting of checks and balances to ensure citizens’ rights and liberties are protected from the likes of a Jagdeo of Guyana and a Douglas of St Kitts,both of whom exhibit and practised a dictatorship.Hear Douglas when he lost power last year…”You tink me finish!Me ain’t finish yet!Me just a start!Me ain’t tekkin it so!Me ain’t tekkin it so!”The words of a sicko that power made drunk,so drunk that he thought he was a god’s gift to the Federation of St Christopher,Nevis.


  32. So what do you advise that we do Gabriel?

    How can we the people change this woefully outdated system?

    Here we are post “The Politics of Inclusion (a a few sycophants)”, awaiting ” A Covent of Hope (a dark hole in some forlorn place) suffering through the Pathways to Progress or Road to Perdition.

    What are our choices?


  33. Whatever model is chosen must have provisos for checks and balances that allow for sanctions which bite hardnoass.

  34. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ BEWARE OF YARD-FOWLS!!!!! June 8, 2016 at 4:42 PM

    Artax and now you, BOYF, exposing the yellow bitchy pooch of the speckled hen called “ac the yard-foul” par excellence!

    The bitch of yard-fowls will soon be exposed in full glory bedecked in yellow and blue colours.
    Just wait until she, it, or they becomes fully fledged in their weather-cocky backing of Privatization as this current administration tries to save its sorry ass from being called the Deceitful Lying Party that destroyed Barbados in 2016 by throwing 42 years of national hard work down the drain of corruption and incompetence.


  35. So we have Wickham’s poll saying the general elections was too close to call.

    Then we have the other pollster, Don Marshall?, predicting a 11-6 victory for labour. As Bushie is wont to say, this polling like it is shiiite yuh!


  36. what a bunch of poppy cock unlike you i give jack the jacket nothing wrong with saying that there was a wrong being done so taking comments from anything i say in reference to my support for Mia during her most darkest days is as yardfowl as one can get
    but as i say again mia has morphed into a despot and a tasteless political brand which now has given OSA reason to say i told you so. BTW please do not let me get started


  37. @ Gabriel

    I am like you in reception mode regarding its provisions but I was wondering what will be the modus through which we will first achieve that place where change will be entertained.

    I must admit that the only thing that I have arrived at, in the absence of people with conviction to bring change was one which quite simply said that as a counter to any covenant of hope “if you do the same thing “all of your elected MPs are going home” with interrupted service in the House of parliament.

    Without men/women of integrity who”once they speak a thing, we can take it to be truth” what other options do we have open to us?

    Look I acknowledge that the Deceitful Lied Party MUST GO HOME, DOWN TO THE LAST SEAT, but what is this covenant of hope other than a iambic pentameter that is carefully chosen because it sounds nice and catchy, like a Time for Change (and I can show you where that came from.

    The most inept government that the cuntry has ever had gets voted out and then what Gabriel?

    As someone who creates “Posters” that are “brand name” of the 4 people on BU who do “posters that are brand name” SSS and Colonel Buggy and the Honourable Blogmaster (ergo my remarks regarding “brand name posters” elsewhere – apologies Brathwaite) I am one of those who can honestly say that the process to reconstitute our woefully lacking system has de ole man kerfuffled.

    Let me explain to you how my simple self understands this.

    We have an airplane. ( a fleet of them LIAT?)

    That fleet needs to be up in the air flying, properly gassed up, with working ailerons, and mechanics who know how to fix engines.

    We need to hire staff who can carry out these functions and management that can direct that staff compliment.

    Do we good and get Karl Broodhagen “because he is a nice fellow” or Dr. Jean Holder cause he ….?” Do we hire Maloney, and insert some other fellows cause them seem to be the right political choices?

    These “nice fellow appointments” and “hiring friends who need work” is the malady that has us suffering like we are.

    So what can we do Gabriel?


  38. @ the Blogmaster

    An article appeared on the BBC today http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36473888

    Five ways to Predict a President.

    At the end of the day is all seems to be scientifically supported gobbledok.

    Kenny Anthony barely kept his seat by 85 votes so that seems to suggest that the predictions are just that predictions.

    Some people claim that when the numbers go up at the polling stations that the incumbent party is gone but, with all of the corruption in some countries, Venezuela not to be excluded, that theory can soon be disproved.

    “Close to call” is a subjective thing based on where and how you acquire your data and the size of the subset polled.

    Years ago, taking your poll from St John meant that the DLP would win every seat but, even with new survey techniques, the fear that voters have in these little banana republics, unless they are assured that their inclination will not givue them away as a DBLP or SLP/UWP supporter, it falls into the category of too hard to call.

    When the common man comes out in numbers and their faces show despair, then the incumbent party has to absolutely fear.

    I am not no Tennyson Joseph nor no Wickham but judging from the many easy remarks that now customarily slip out of the mouths of the poor and the middle classed man, both black and white, judging from the detailed responses to “how you doing boy?” I do beleive dat all uh de DLP going home…and that is one that ent gine be too close to call


  39. Note that for 6 successes out of 17 trials, the hypothesis that p=.5 (the probability of success would not be rejected) .
    Check the following link and note that the confidence interval contains p=.5. Thus Wickhams claim that the elections was too close to call cannot be rejected.

    Btw: this is my bread and butter.

    http://www.causascientia.org/math_stat/ProportionCI.html?


  40. @PUDRYR
    Any statistician who polled only the parish of St John should be jailed. It might be polling, but I doubt if it would be considered scientific.

    I am certain that Peter Wickman used much more sophisticated methods than my simple binomial test. Also, my test is done after the fact.


  41. @ Gazer

    Tank you very much for that exercise in pollsterization.

    I guess that mine is a confidence interval that is based on nuff people saying the same thing in the past when asked a simple question that is not really drafted to get that answer in the past and then the constancy of that answer during current and additional questions on the same item.

    It is like you asking me how you doing Piece? and instead of me saying all is well Gazer, every week for the last 3 weeks I come back and tell you “Gazer, you know that dem kill a next dog yuh?”

    Not only is the interval very frequent but. after a while your confidence in my being able to field another series of attempts, given the finite amount of dogs a feller has, will diminish.

    Quite simply put, the repetition of moaning from everyone that you talk to is so constant and, more and more people, ent hiding dem mouth when they are talking, that is the basis upon which i make my predictions.

    I guess that after stating that I am not going to get no job with you lololol

  42. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @Pieces and apart from St.John the flip side was in play in St. Thomas for example with Tom. As you know and as Gazer validates poll statistical analysis is (or can be) very, very real when done using proper statistical standards.

    Moreover, with the absolute wider availability of research by the everyman, no longer can pollsters attempt to hoodwink with bogus methodologies.

    I have followed this Wickham thing with interest because as I recall his ‘mentor’ and former CADRES director had a quite strong reputation with his political polling even though he too was a very vocal pundit in the local and his country’s politics.

    I seem to recall a time after Wickham took over that the reputation for solid analysis continued and his polls were the defining stats of an election. I clearly missed the period when he became a political sycophant as many here label him with disdain.


  43. Veteran pollster misses in Saint Lucia

    PHOTO: Don Anderson (Courtesy Jamaica Observer)

    Home

    Politics & Government

    Veteran pollster misses in Saint Lucia

    June 8th, 2016 Headlines, Politics & Government 0 comments

    Jamaica Observer:- VETERAN pollster Don Anderson is now the subject of much discussion in St Lucia, where the results of Monday’s general elections — in which the Opposition United Workers Party (UWP) trounced the ruling St Lucia Labour Party (SLP) — badly contradicted the findings of an opinion poll conducted by him and published days before the vote.

    Anderson’s poll had predicted a comfortable win by the Kenny Anthony-led SLP, with a minimum of 11 of the 17 parliamentary seats — the same margin the party held before the vote. The poll, according to St Lucian media, was conducted across all 17 constituencies and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 per cent. The results were retested by way of ‘spot polling’ in select constituencies on May 28 and 29.

    However, Monday’s preliminary results revealed the exact opposite, with Allen Chastanet’s UWP — which campaigned on promises of economic and tax reforms — winning with an 11-six majority.

    Anderson’s poll was released by the SLP a day after one published by Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) predicted a close contest. The CADRES poll was roundly rejected by the SLP.


  44. Piece
    You are off to a good start if you can find a leader who will put country before party.The undoing of the DLP is it’s uncanny ability to provide for the fatted calf and the corrupt,so you need to eliminate them permanently from the equation.Your mission,if you accept it,is to find a leader of high intent,superior intellect,sincere and intelligent enough to see threats as opportunities and not obstacles and further one doggedly committed to regionalism.I think Kenny Anthony was not amenable to OSA and his attempts for a closer embrace of the OECS.Its going to be interesting to see if Chastanet,embraced by Butch the Abrasive and who already reminded him that he gave him a job at Air Jamaica,might come a calling for his favours there.


  45. @ De Word aka De Pedantic Dribbler

    Remember the iterations in entrepreneurial activity from snowcone man to pig foot man to corn cob man?

    One has to understand that the job of Pollster will , periodically, shift into the more lucrative domain of Political Advisor/Strategist just to keep bread and butter on the table.

    If I am a consultant to Embassy Cigarettes I certainly am not going to speak about lung cancer etc. and it should be a matter of professional courtesy that when I appear at the Lung Cancer Convention as an expert in statistical analysis of cigarette induced deaths i say who i am working for.

    A man has to eat and this is where these fellows are plying their services, as strategists, who in down times do polls.

    To do that radical sweep that Anderson would have incorrectly predicted may suggest that an analysis of the socio/economic segment of persons who came out to vote may itself shed some light on what Anderson could not see.

    I would put it to you that if that type of statistical analysis was appended to the Electoral Report of the STL or any of the regional elections, it would point to the economically fragile voter persons who are now exercising their vote for personal reasons that have nothing to do with all of the fandangled macro economic policies.

    I voting fuh change cause “i wukking harder, ent getting paid more money, and dis government taking me more”

    This is what is going to whitewash the DLP, it has nothing to do with the increases in Public Worker salaries that they propose to use as bribes, nor the reduction in the VAT, nothing of that nature is going to stop their wipeout.

    The counter is going to be, if you can do it now, why couldnt you have done it before?


  46. @ tell me why. Peter stfu. Both you and Tennyson predicted wrong. Just because your client won it does not mean that you were right. In fact the truth of the matter is that your own numbers suggested that the SLP would be victorious. However to suit your client, you issued an opinion that stated that although it was too close to call that the national swing was in favor of the then opposition, your client. Even your swing opinion numbers were wrong as the UMP won by a large margin of seats. You like white boys so I could see your fascination with Chasanet.

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