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Hal Austin
Hal Austin

Introduction:
One of the persistent myths about parliamentary politics in Barbados is that we have somehow adopted the Westminster/Whitehall model and, by implication, the way our politics operate is the way things are done in Britain. This misleading belief is but one of many self-portraits we wrap ourselves in which have no relation to reality. Truth be told, all former colonies had their administrative and political models based on the mother country, but over the years we have grown apart. The myth of similarity goes along with the notion that we have 98 per cent literacy, that we are a first world nation, that we punch above our weight, that we are the best cricketing nation in the world and that our public discourse is highly sophisticated. Not a single one of these is true, or nearly true: we are a functionally illiterate nation unprepared for a modern technological world; we are not first world even if we do well to call ourselves a middle ranking nation; our voice is irrelevant in world forums; the independence cricket match, Barbados versus the Rest of the World, should have put paid to our claims of cricketing supremacy; and the yaboo politics centred around the economic mess the nation is in should put paid to the idea of high-class debates.

Analysis:
In the very fist paragraph of the summary of the House of Commons research paper on collective responsibility, โ€œThe Collective Responsibility of Ministers โ€“ an Outline of the issuesโ€, it is stated: โ€œThe convention of collective Cabinet, or ministerial, responsibility is at the heart of the British system of parliamentary government, yet, like individual responsibility, it is a concept which is not regulated by statute, although some guidance has been formalised in the Ministerial Code.โ€ Barbados is an independent jurisdiction and makes its own laws and develops its own customs, but if our constitutional experts continue to refer to the Westminster/Whitehall model, then our parliamentary practices must be judged on that model, that is the yardstick we set ourselves.

Chapter Four of the Cabinet Manual, the official guide for Westminster parliamentary practice, tells us in the introduction: โ€œGovernment is a large and complex organisation and so it needs formal and informal mechanisms for discussing issues, building consensus, resolving disputes, taking decisions and monitoring progress. โ€œBy convention, Cabinet and Cabinet committees take decisions which are binding on members of government. โ€œCabinet and Cabinet committees are composed of government ministers, who are then accountable to parliament for any collective decisions made. โ€œCollective responsibility allows ministers to express their views frankly in discussion, in the expectation that they can maintain a united front once a decision has been reached.โ€ Under the Westminster system of government, business is brokered informally in committee and sub-committees and in the corridors of Whitehall before they get on the Cabinet agenda. In this way, by the time Cabinet comes to discuss an issue there is an informal understanding as to peopleโ€™s positions and the compromises that have to be made, what Professor Robert Hazell, the constitutional expert, calls โ€œpre-cookingโ€.

Section two of the British Coalition Governmentโ€™s Agreement for Stability and Reform states: โ€œ(para: 2.1) The principle of collective responsibility, save where it is explicitly set aside, continues to apply to all Government Ministers. This requires (a) appropriate degree of consultation and discussion among Ministers to provide the opportunity for them to express their views frankly as decisions are reached.โ€ That, in brief, is how the Westminster model of collective Cabinet responsibility works, which minister Estwick has driven a coach and horses through with an incredible arrogance. Equally surprising is that the prime minister, Freundel Stuart, a senior barrister therefore presumably familiar with parliamentary conventions, has allowed Dr Estwick to challenge his authority by first, going public with his opposition to government economic policy, and, second demanding that he be allowed to put his views to a full meeting of parliament. This is political blackmail.

It follows on similar dissent from Donville Inniss, who has spoken out on a number of occasions outside his brief as a minister and the comment made by the governor of the central bank, a technocrat, that VAT should be abolished. Cabinet collective responsibility is also embedded in the Ministerial Code (para 2.3), which binds all minister to the principle of collective responsibility. As the Cabinet Manual points out (para 4.3): โ€œIn practice, this means that a decision of Cabinet or one of its committees is binding on all members of the Government, regardless of whether they were present when the decision was taken or their personal views.โ€

The historic Westminster tradition is that if a member of the Cabinet, or a minister at any level, disagrees with the government to such an extent that he or she wants to break rank, the first thing that minister does is to resign and return to the back benches. David Butler, in his essay: โ€œThe Changing Constitution in Contextโ€, published in The British Constitution, edited by Matt Qvortrup, writing about collective Cabinet responsibility said: โ€œThe old doctrine survives that โ€˜any minister who disagrees with government policy must resign โ€“ or at least keep silent,โ€™ for the old reason โ€˜we must all hang together lest we hang separatelyโ€™. โ€œBut leaks about ministersโ€™ disagreements and reservations have vastly increased, and the fact that so much less is now debated in full Cabinet means that the doctrine has been seriously eroded, even though recent decades have still seen principled resignations over collective responsibility (eg Heseltine 1986, Lawson 1989, Howe 1990, Cook 2003).โ€

It is right and proper that a dissenting minister who feels strongly enough about an issue should resign and make his/her case from outside the Cabinet, but a minister at odds with his Cabinet colleagues cannot in principle stay in the Cabinet while at the same time publicly distancing him/herself from its decisions. What ministers do not do is to hold on to their portfolios while taking pot shots at the government from inside; it is not only wrong in terms of parliamentary tradition, but ethically despicable also. One of the most famous examples of a secretary of state walking out of a Cabinet over a disagreement with his colleagues was when Michael Heseltine, then defence secretary, walked out of the Thatcher government over the Westland affair. Then there was the youthful James Purnell, then work and pensions secretary, who walked out of the Gordon Brown Cabinet, and followed up his resignation with a letter to the news media calling on prime minister Brown to resign. In his letter, he stated: โ€œI now believe your continued leadership makes a Conservative victory more, not less, likely.โ€ Although Dr Estwick has not articulated his disagreement with the government with such sophistication, apart from a flawed call to borrow money from the United Arab Emirates, he is clearly out of step with its economic policy.

One recent example in British Cabinet government of a deep division was that of the Tony Blair government in which Gordon Brown served as Chancellor of the Exchequer. It is now a matter of historical record that the two men had their differences of opinion, but as far as collective Cabinet responsibility was concerned, apart from the occasional press leak, they stuck steadfast to the convention. So, even at its most divisive, the British Cabinet sticks to the principles and conventions of joint responsibility. Again, this is the real Westminster model at work. David Feldman, in his essay Constitutional Conventions (in The British Constitution, ed Matt Qvortrupp), quoting Peter Morton, reminds us: โ€œFirst, conventions arise from and operate within a constitutional tradition which, in the UK, is one of respect for fundamental values, including government by consent, individual freedom, diversity of opinion, contestation as the essence of political life and ethical standards of behaviour in politics.โ€ By no single measure has Dr Estwickโ€™s terrible behaviour can be described as ethical or showing the slightest respect for fundamental political values.

Conclusion:
These brief examples of the lack of discipline in Cabinet send the message, if it were needed, that the Stuart Cabinet is not united and that policymaking is a lottery. Maybe one reason the prime minister tolerates Dr Estwickโ€™s eccentricities is that this government is so grossly incompetent voters rightly see his opposition as the voice of the majority. Of course, cynics may equally say that prime minister Stuart gives greater weight to holding on to power than the principles of government. Dr Estwickโ€™s behaviour may be understandable in the context that there has not been any serious economic policy discussion in the government and his idiotic idea of accepting a loan from the despotic United Arab Emirates has political legitimacy. This flawed and badly thought-out idea does not address the widening wealth gap in Barbados, the cosy lives that the expatriates enjoy at the expense of local people and the drift back in to mud huts by an abandoned minority of often mentally disturbed and acutely pauperised men and women. In fact, it does not address the unforgiving nature of Barbadian society in which the well-connected do well and the marginalised have to look after themselves, a classic demonstration of social Darwinism.

Yet again it is another example, as if further proof was needed, of our academic economists not allowing their precious hands to be dirtied with any such thing as a discussion on economic policy and our journalists not holding them to account. Dr Estwickโ€™s behaviour also has implication for ordinary citizens and the rule of law, since of our lawmakers clearly do not play by the rules, it is very difficult for the boys and girls on the block to accept the authority of our institutions.

Finally, I want to reiterate a point I have made on a number of occasions: the reason why Dr Estwickโ€™s irrational behaviour has not met any public opprobrium is a direct result of the poor quality of public debate in Barbados. Rabble rousing and personal abuse have long substituted for detailed analyses of opponentsโ€™ view and policies and it is one generally endorsed by the general public. The price we pay is the diminishing of our society. Further, it does not help Dr Estwickโ€™s case that he has an unfortunate personality and often comes over like a Rottweiler on steroids. In time, the Estwick case will be taught in legal, political and parliamentary history classes for years to come as an example of the collapse of collective Cabinet responsibility under a weak prime minister. In the unique case of this Barbados government, it is a symptom of a failing state. As the Westminster Cabinet Manual says: โ€œIt is for the Prime Minister, as chair of the Cabinet, or the relevant Cabinet committee chair, to summarise what the collective decision is, and this is recorded in the minutes by the Cabinet Secretariat.โ€ Collective responsibility can also be canvassed by electronic or traditional correspondence. At some point the people of Barbados, and in particular the ruling political and social elite, must come to the realisation that Barbados is a little island, the size of some Australian and Brazilian sugar cane plantations, which just happens to do relatively well. But as to being world class, even in cricket, they must come alive some day.

Further Reading: Parliament and the Law, eds Alexander Horne, et al; and, The British Constitution: Continuity and Changeโ€, A Festschrift for Vernon Bognador, ed Matt Qvortrupp.

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110 responses to “Notes From a Native Son: Estwick’s Rottweiler Behaviour Sends the Wrong Message”


  1. Has ace New York journalist Tony Best been asked to explained his story about Sir Roy being appointed to the diplomatic corp in light of his denial?


  2. @David
    And what bout de part in de Nation paper that claim Marion leffin she post? I thought I hear Marion get reappoint to Geneva.


  3. David,

    You have to listen to what Sir Roy said carefully. He said he had not been offered anything at this point in time. To me, he seemed to be hedging………..leaving room for “I did not know at that point in time”!


  4. @Prodigal & Oilman

    We shall see when the truth is finally revealed. The games which people play and which we accept.


  5. “The makeshift Govโ€™t in Kiev is too weak to respond and the West doesnโ€™t have an appetite for war.

    Putin 1-the rest 0.”
    it does seem that the West has indeed lost its appetite for war as evidenced from Mr Obama’s inaction against Syria despite his threats to Dictator Assad which were humiliatingly ignored.; but the question is whether losing appetite for war is a good thing or bad thing. What do you think? there will be no winners should the West respond and the West do have the vwherewithal to respond; remember Russia no longer has the sateelite states to rely on and since the breakup is still rebuilding their military might- so let Putin keep the province which was Russia’s before Khruschev stupidly gave it away.


  6. Is Mia Mottley saying to give each laid off worker $33.The reason for not attending the function is stupid. Money voted for functions cannot be paid to workers. I think she will be a very irrational leader. Owen seems to know something that we are not picking up


  7. Balance, President Obama would do whatever it takes to secure America’s interest at home and abroad but he haven’t any interest in committing American troops to any further conflicts.


  8. 5.30 news………….workers still have not been paid. But the DLP can party.
    I know the Royal Commonwealth Society is organising the event but the government is footing the bill. Did they need to invite 800 people? Who is the caterer? Is it Donville’s sister?

    Yea…..you really think that this money was included in the last estimates? This government is not that good. The Stinkliar was transferring millions to Michael Lashley at the NHC every month and it was not voted for in Parliament.


  9. Shut the PAC down and we would not know what this lying, thiefing, cheating government is doing!


  10. Once again the hypocrisy of the BLP/DLP is evident. We are approaching 50 years of Independence and neither the BLP/DLP has canvassed for Republic status. All this hot air about two parties , who cant’ bring themselves to remove a European Queen as the Head of State of our nation. It is high time we get our own president and make a complete break from a monarchy that is of no real significance to our country.The same party(s) that boycott today, will be at the “Throne Speech”. The same party(s) accept Knighthoods and have all the trappings of the colonialists.


  11. Prodigal

    You are really nic picking about caterers. All government hire caterers for functions, your party did it for fourteen years and this one is doing it also. Have you missed that catering money?


  12. “Money voted for functions cannot be paid to workers.”

    Clearly money was voted for “functions” but not salaries!! I don’t know about other bloggers, but comments like these infuriate me as I see them as an attempt to insult my intelligence. Where is it written that because it was voted for it MUST be spent?


  13. @ MCG

    Um is Queen Elizabeth that mek we run up debt and deficits? stupse


  14. Mahogany…….the black leaders in both political parties should be ashamed of themselves right about now, but we know they both have no shame, their only ambition in life is to kowtow to the same very people and insult the memories of their ancestors, all day that is all that’s being discussed. Donville is dumber than anyone can imagine, as i said if that is what Harrison College is producing, the school should be closed.

    The only significance a dying monarchy has is it’s to itself and use Barbados to hide money from the UK taxpayers, these blasted leaders in Barbados are mere pukes, fcking disgraces.

  15. PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926 TO 2014 , MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS OF BARBADOS, BLPand DLP=Massive Fruad Avatar
    PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926 TO 2014 , MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS OF BARBADOS, BLPand DLP=Massive Fruad

    Well Well | February 28, 2014 at 6:00 PM | @
    10,000 workers and Plantation Deeds agree

  16. PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926 TO 2014 , MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS OF BARBADOS, BLPand DLP=Massive Fruad Avatar
    PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926 TO 2014 , MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS OF BARBADOS, BLPand DLP=Massive Fruad

    Has ace New York journalist Tony Best been asked to explained his story about Sir Roy being appointed to the diplomatic corp in light of his denial?@David come on ..
    Fraud Tony Best, leave that Fraud alone , We may need to look at his holdings in Barbados , lets see how far the rabbit hole goes.We stand 1000% on all of Plantation Deeds Posting on this traitor of Barbados and Bajans, and all rules dealing with free NEWS.


  17. @Balance
    so let Putin keep the province which was Russiaโ€™s before Khruschev stupidly gave it away.
    +++++++++++++
    In May 1992 the Russian Parliament voted to rescind Khruschevโ€™s decision.


  18. In May 1992 the Russian Parliament voted to rescind Khruschevโ€™s decision”
    Thanks for the enlightenment but did the status quo ever change or remained the same


  19. @Artaxerses
    “My friend, it is nonsense to keeping harping on the past highlighting such as the St. Leonardโ€™s school contact, Greenland, GEMS, Doddโ€™s prison; Supreme Court, etc.”
    The truth must be told . Mottley is praised as a good public speaker but look beyond that and she must be held accountable for obvious ministerial failures. It is not personal.
    With all due respect sir the current leader of the opposition was Minister of Education when the putrid fiasco occurred at St. Leonards Boys school receiving one of the most scathing reviews of any school project in an auditor general’s report. It even prompted Clyde Mascoll on the floor of the house to say that Mottley was a disaster as Minister of Education. The truth must be told when she runs around Barbados with a holier than thou attitude.

    Why do you think that the former chairman of the cabinet has twice publicly stated that she should not be given national leadership. He is well aware of what would happen if she gets power from his unique observation point. A word to the wise or you can continue to bury your head in the sand.


  20. @Hal

    We are told the advantages of the Westminster system are, legislation is easier to pass; government is in CONTROL, no filibustering bla bla.

    Regrettably with the current crop of MPs – many who have studied in England – we are members of the Commonwealth which we hold dear, do we have the capacity to change/modify the setup?


  21. @Enuff,
    Money voted for in parliament that is not spent goes back in it the consolidated fund. (Do you know what that is? Idiot!!!}
    It cannot be spent otherwise.@well well,
    Still hanging in.
    On another note, the flags of 52 other notions of the commonwealth were also unfurled yesterday. Obviously many other nations do not echo your sentiments.


  22. @Balance
    It was a symbolic vote but it came on the heels of the Crimean Parliament declaring Independence from Ukraine. Ukraine then granted Crimea autonomous power within Ukraine (self governing status) and that resolved the matter until recent events. As a majority Russian speaking territory most of the people feel more kinship with Russia just like some Quebecers feel more kinship with France and campaign for Independence from Canada. Imagine if Quebec /Canada shared a border with France (not counting St. Pierre & Miquelon) look what happened when DeGaulle visited Quebec and gave a speech in which he said โ€œVive le Quebec libreโ€.

    These ethnic/religious and language divisions occur all over the world, there are the source of conflicts in Africa and still bedevil Europe, e.g. look at how many countries evolved out of Yugoslavia after Tito died and the Russians have their own problems with Chechnya

    The Russians have the upper hand in this dispute and they are not going to let Crimea remain part of Ukraine unless they are given ironclad assurances of their continuing access to the Black Sea ports and that Ukraine tones down any talk of joining the EU.


  23. Alvin..glad to hear you are doing well, but redirecting funds designated for that event was not my point, my point is not spending any taxpayers money on anyone coming out of buckingham palace at all, period.


  24. @ David
    Yes we can change things. The questions is if we have the stomach fore change.
    Being educated in Britain does not mean as much as the beneficiaries claim. Bering in a class room in which lecturers and tutors expect less from overseas students does not say much.
    On the other hand, we have have some of the brightest people studying in Britain from the Caribbean.
    For real constitutional change we need good government, a politics of ideas, not of a flawed party loyalty.
    Let us debate constitutional change instead of character assassination. .


  25. @ Hal ๐Ÿ™‚
    “….Let us debate constitutional change instead of character assassination,
    +++++++++++
    …man you could be a real spoil sport sometimes hear….?!


  26. David,
    Other than Santia Bradshaw who are the other MP’s who studied in England.As far as I am aware since the introduction of UWI to Barbados,the connection to UK studies ceased.But I stand to be corrected.

  27. Young and Untrained Avatar
    Young and Untrained

    “Donville is dumber than anyone can imagine, as i said if that is what Harrison College is producing, the school should be closed.”

    What does Harrison College have to do with anything about CATERING CONTRACTS?

    I find it rather immature to make statements like these. Sinckler went to Garrison is his behavior then as finance acceptable? Would that then explain his obvious incompetence at the job?

    Donville is not what Harrison is producing. He is what it produced at some point in the past. This class-ism of schools always reminds me that Bajans have not emancipated themselves from mental slavery.
    Isn’t that one of the unsaid clauses in UWI’s social contract? To give all who felt badly they didn’t go to the older grammar schools a chance to redeem themselves with a spanking new, hard earned bachelor’s degree? Upward mobility, no?

    This conversation on which secondary school you attended is beaten to death and it’s ultimate definition of who you are and what you do… almost pathetic. It definitely screams a level of ignorance for one to to put the individual failure of a person on one school.


  28. “The Russians have the upper hand in this dispute and they are not going to let Crimea remain part of Ukraine unless they are given ironclad assurances of their continuing access to the Black Sea ports and that Ukraine tones down any talk of joining the EU.”
    in agreement with your analysis.


  29. Mr Sarge, seems that Mr Obama’s plea to withdraw the troops from Crimea has been rebuffed by Mr Putin. What do you make of this?


  30. @ Bajanfuhlife

    โ€œWith all due respect sir the current leader of the opposition was Minister of Education when the putrid fiasco occurred at St. Leonards Boys school receiving one of the most scathing reviews of any school project in an auditor generalโ€™s report.โ€

    Point taken. However, do politicians have access to the treasury to pay businesses that provide the government with services?

    David Thompson was $3.3M through his law firm under the guise of providing services for CLICO, when in actuality it was a gratuity payment for Parris, and Thompson became Prime Minister of Barbados? Was Thompson not โ€œholier than thouโ€ when he was going the length and breadth of this island preaching about corruption and his intension to introducing transparency legislation, and the forensic audit into CLICO revealed the above mentioned activity?


  31. @Dr.Estwick

    Tick tock tick tock…


  32. @Balance
    Mr Sarge, seems that Mr Obamaโ€™s plea to withdraw the troops from Crimea has been rebuffed by Mr Putin. What do you make of this?
    ++++++++++
    No one expected Putin to summarily withdraw because Obama asked him to that would make him weak in the eyes of his fellow Russians. The US and other Western powers actions are limited to diplomatic or economic actions.

    The economic actions would hurt the most as the Russian gazillionaires who swallowed up State assets following the dissolution of the Soviet Republic may not have a venue to park their money, whatโ€™s the use of having money if you canโ€™t spend it as you like?


  33. David | March 3, 2014 at 6:39 AM |
    @Dr.Estwick

    Tick tock tick tockโ€ฆ

    Wishing and hoping, hoping and praying .Heard the PM on news calmly state Estwick is a highly intelligent man an asset to cabinet and if his proposal has merit it will be considered. Froon cool as a cucumber while Mottley hot and bothered running around purposeless begging for boycotts, marches ,riots . She hopes against hope for Estwick to demit cabinet. Following what Froon said it appears as if the Estick explosion has died down for now. Back to the drawing board for Mia and her wild boys and girls. Not only that the BLP big ups Sir Simmons , George Griffith and co feasted in parliament yard on horse doves and wine while hob nobbing with royalty. Poor Mia lose again. Arthur in the bush waiting. Who really at the hellum of de Bees. Cuh dear. Lord come for your world.


  34. Putin has issued his ulimatum let us see what happens tomorrow.


  35. “The US and other Western powers actions are limited to diplomatic or economic actions.”
    Apparently countries like Germany while they loathe the Russian administration still depend on pipeline running through Russia and some of its controlled states for their gas. So while they may support economic sanctions in principle they cannot really take decisive action having been caught between a rock and a hard place as the military might of the wily and slippery Mr Putin entrenches itself without hindrance on Ukrainian soil. Shades of Czechoslovakia and Mr Alexander Dubcek repeating itself it seems.


  36. “.Heard the PM on news calmly state Estwick is a highly intelligent man an asset to cabinet and if his proposal has merit it will be considered.”
    What else do you expect the Prime Minister to say my friend. As with the Eager 11 fiasco, He has acted true to form. Preservation of position is the order of the day. Are you inferring as well that it was Ms Mottley who inveigled Mr Estwick to ignore Cabinet convention and hold his Government up to ransom in the hope that the administration would implode and Ms Mottley get a chance to sit in the Prime Minister’s chair.


  37. @Balance
    Shades of Czechoslovakia and Mr Alexander Dubcek repeating itself it seems
    ++++++++++++++
    20 years after that Prague spring the Berlin Wall fell, short term Putin calls the shots but long term it may be a different story.

    Waiting for the other shoe to drop.

  38. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ balance | March 3, 2014 at 7:52 PM |
    โ€œWhat else do you expect the Prime Minister to say my friend. As with the Eager 11 fiasco, He has acted true to form.โ€

    And true to form we can expect the neutered Rottweiler now turned Fumbleโ€™s lapdog poodle to react in a sabbatical of golden silence.
    Fumble is saying between the lines Estwick is a silly boy who needs a bit of attention and simple recognition. Now how the hell can the fumbler refer to Estwick plan to rescue the economy and save thousands of jobs as just โ€˜another presentation that could be worthy of considerationโ€™?

    One thing you have to give the man Fumble kudos for is his ability to pull at the naive heart strings of the simple folk of St. Philip and the wider family of DLP supporters.
    He is basically telegraphing to Estwick if you cause the premature fall of the current DLP administration before all qualify for full pension you will never be forgiven by your family and especially the people of St. Philip.
    And Estwick like a true back row (backra, no pun intended) johnny would be most ashamed of his genetic tree and fall back in line.

    The upcoming Estimates will determine if Estwick really and truly believes in his own ‘alternative UAE plan’ to rescue the struggling economy from a 5:1 devaluation of its weakening currency or has indeed succumbed to an exacerbated bout of genetically explained madness.


  39. “20 years after that Prague spring the Berlin Wall fell, short term Putin calls the shots but long term it may be a different story.

    Waiting for the other shoe to drop.”

    But Mr Putin seems to be playing all his KGB acquired skills to his advantage at the moment and playing Mr Obama for a fool taunting and teasing him and other western leaders into believing that he holds all the aces. Now he threatens not to pay his debts to America and down grade the US dollar should sanctions be imposed.

  40. are-we-there-yet Avatar
    are-we-there-yet

    Millertheannunaki and Balance;

    I think that re. the Estwick situation, the PM, even if he and his cabinet do not realize it, is faced with the most difficult decision that any PM has ever had to face in Barbados. Any choice he makes is fraught with danger to the economy and to his legacy. So far he has shown that he tends to avoid any kind of decision making and, even then, takes inordinately long to make them.

    The most likely decision, and one he has clearly telegraphed despite some watering down to assuage Estwick (who clearly holds the balance of power in this government), is that he will stick to the traditional tried and tested GoCB/CS path. That path spells intense horrors in the years to come and even the dreaded devaluation appears to be a distinct possibility. The PMs legacy will almost certainly be an abysmal one and the DLP will likely suffer in the polls for years to come if he makes that decision.

    The unlikely decision is to go with the Estwick proposal. That path has many imponderables but promises to be a path to restructure the Economy, clear all our debt problems, avoid IMF prescriptions, etc. Overall, such a decision could solve all our immediate problems with the economy but the possible outcomes are not all rosy. It would take an inveterate gambler to make that decision after weighing all the pros and cons. However, in spite of his appearance and history, several aspects of the PM’s decision making history suggests that he is a gambler at heart and not afraid to make asymetric odd decisions. He might surprise most of us by going down the Estwick road. A very negative consequence coming out of that decision could also spell intense horrors for Barbados and for the Freundel Stuart legacy.

    All things considered, I suspect the decision will be to maintain the status quo in which case Estwick will ultimately leave cabinet and, if it is well timed, the BLP will be left holding the bag to implement the IMF inspired measures, including the dreaded devaluation, bequeathed them by an inept DLP government.


  41. @ Are we there

    If this is the case, why am I told that 22 Barbadians are in China for up to 20 days telling the the story of how nice a place Barbados is for business?
    Should they not be in the Middle East?

  42. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Hal;

    I think I said that the most likely scenario is for the PM to stay with the status quo but that his outlier instinct might arguably suggest that there is a minimal possibility that he could go with the UAE solution (if it is still on the table). The 22 Barbadians in China for up to 20 days promoting Barbados’ tourism might be deemed a sensible though costly exercise that introduces the new Barbados Ambassador there with a bang and might be useful whatever decision the PM makes about the Estwick proposal. There is no mutual exclusivity in the rumoured Chinese initiative as far as I can see.

    Now if you had said they were in the UAE, I would have gone Hmmmmmmm!


  43. @ are-we-there-yet?

    My reading of the situation is that Fumble will eventually say to Estwick when he gets around to it…….I am going to stick with the governor and Sinckler……….and dared him to do what wants to do! All the while pushing the party paramountcy card! Estwick will then meekly submit, the DLP is paramount, not Barbados or Barbadians!


  44. @ are-we-there-yet?

    Fumbler could not be going with Estwick’s plan as they are still going ahead with the layoffs which Estwick told the Fumbler to his face is not a policy!


  45. I await the spin from the DLP blaming Barbados’ woes on what is happening in Ukraine!

  46. Fractured BLP Avatar

    Hi Prodigal Daughter,

    Your last comment about Ukraine is very instructive.

    The turmoil in the Ukraine and the threatened intervention from Russian forces could not have come at a worse time for Barbados and other Caribbean countries.

    We have to keep our eyes on that one.


  47. “That path spells intense horrors in the years to come and even the dreaded devaluation appears to be a distinct possibility”
    Fellow mourners, brace yourselves for phase one of the IMF austerity programme.

  48. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Prodigal Son;

    True! All indications are that Freundal will reject the Estwick proposal. That means that all the rigours of a typical IMF programme are almost certainly in the offing, including the dreaded devaluation. At some stage Estwick must balance his undeniable support for the DLP with his own credibility if he meekly allows the PM to lead him by the nose into supporting something which he is clearly against and the undeniable fact that the horrors of the restructuring programme will almost certainly leave not one DLP man standing whenever elections come a calling. That tussle between Estwick and himself is sure to lead to some serious political theatre in the coming months.

    Look for the unthinkable to happen.


  49. @ AWTY

    Was a commitment to implement the IMF agreement a condition of the 2013 Credit Suisse loan? P.M. Stuart made a decision to implement the IMF recommendations so the consideration promised to the โ€œEstwick Planโ€ is very similar to the consideration promised to the BWUโ€™s enhanced packages. Both will be written of like over aged accounts receivables.

  50. Black Cosmonaut Avatar
    Black Cosmonaut

    Bajan in NY
    If you don’t know where you want to go then any road will do. That is what is happening in Barbados right now. This Government is not about governing is about surviving so they will whatsoever buys them more.

    The Ides of March are here.

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