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Check this link out, the ills of the global banking industry captured in 101 language.
In a depressed economy like this one, the government is spending too much foolish money, for example, a football tournament, constituency councils, while squeezing the hell out of the consumer. For the length of their term in office, this government has not find it possible not even to remove the VAT on the Light Bill so that the consumer can have more spending power. We will see some “goodies” being passed out just before elections and when they win the squeeze would get tighter. The Finance Minister said he was not raising the property tax rates but what he did is double the value of the property, hence many people are paying twice as much taxes this year as last year.
I heard the man in the budget presentation clearly assuring land tax payers that the value of properties has risen generally but adjustments will be made to the exemption thresholds so that the effect on the tax bill will NOT result in any increased taxes. That is, land tax you will have to pay for 2011/12 year should be the same as for the previous year 2010/11.
This not the case!
This note in the CBB 9-month Review explains the mystery of the unemployment rate of 12+% posted on their website and quickly removed. Do you buy it? All subjective, the bottomline is that unemployment is climbing which is not surprising in these times.
Unemployment Estimates
The results of the March unemployment survey are based on a 95 percent confidence interval that the rate of unemployment lies somewhere between 8.5 percent and 11.4 percent. The point estimate quoted was 10 percent. In the case of the June survey, the results of the BSS indicate that they are 95 percent confident that the unemployment rate lies somewhere between 10.2 percent and 13.9 percent. In this case, the mid-point of the June range is 12.1 percent. However, the implicit increase in the number of persons unemployed from the first and second quarters does not appear to be consistent with the change in the labour force as a whole. For unemployment to have moved from 10 percent at end-March 2011 to 12.1 percent at end June 2011 would have meant the loss of 3,000 jobs during the second quarter. All available evidence – a survey of the 30 companies, the new unemployment claims, and feedback from the Barbados Employers’ Confederation (BEC) and trade unions — does not support this. The rate that the Central Bank has estimated based on the evidence mentioned in the Press Release (11%) appears to be more representative of the change in the total labour force for the year up to the end-September.
I think the government can go part way and remove the VAT on the fuel portion of the light bills; there is no value added by the BL &P, so this should be something to look at.
This government needs to take the bajan public into their confidence and tell us the truth and stop beating around the bush. Private companies are either closing or shortening the staff load, while many are putting their staff on three day work. At the end of the day these workers on three days, don’t know what to do with the few cents they get, but it benefits the NIS who would have to dig deeper to find the money to pay those severed workers.
The issue with removing VAT is that it compromises its revenue target as outlined in its MTFS no?
From the first Budget I made it clear that time would tell…….my lips sealed on economic matters.
@David
True but one has to take extraordinary measures for extraordinary situations. This economy needs to be jump started and a certain level of confidence needs to be brought to the fore to drive that process.
To David:
What I see repeated here is the same old talk that has been spewing for the lips of the politicians. Can you jump start a car that has no gas. People the car is about to run out of gas. Any and every one can do a projection, but what is it based on. Is it based on the need to keep the people believing that all is well; is it based on evidence that can be manipulated/ investigated by others to give the same answers, or is it based on the need to get re elected and then let all hell break loose which includes work for the BDF to shoot down those who dare to speak out about the perfidy that is upon us.
Snipes wrote “This economy needs to be jump started and a certain level of confidence needs to be brought to the fore to drive that process.”
Barbados has very few short term options. Barbados has no raw materials, and an economy structured on Tourism and offshore banking.
There is very little that can be produced in Barbados to sell to the world.
Things will be tough for a long time and out of this we could see a revival of food production for local consumption. More yam an potato and less macaroni pie.
Buy local may become a necessity as foreign exchange reserves contract.
There is no magic bullet to turn around the economy.
Capitulation la da di da da…….
How did the NIS scheme end up with a surplus? I was of the understanding that NI contributions had increased because the young people were dying early and the older people living longer than expected. Hence there was the possibility that the funds could be insufficient. Surely if there is a surplus the Govt could give people a little break by reducing their NI contributions.
Secondly in regards to unemployment once a person has exhausted their unemployment benefit, if he or she remains unemployed how does the government keep track/record this? Are they included in the unemployment figures quoted? Or is the real figure higher than 11 %?
He who feels it knows it. I don’t need the Garden Gnome @ CBB to tell me that things dread. Going to the supermarket is now a nightmare. Finding gas money for the old puma is a weekly struggle and lawd ah praying ah hold on to de lil pick. And don’t even talk bout de utility bills.
The Opposition in a mess and trufefully there ain’t anybody on the Government side who can get us outta this comess. Wunna Bajans betta start to pray fuh dis lil island.
Praise Jesus for muh lil kitchen garden and the breadfruit tree my neighbour got.
You know I used to question what Mia Mottley was saying about the first two Budgets that Thompy deliver. I figure it was only opposing for opposing sake, but that woman was right on the money. (no pun intended) It does gaul me now to hear all the foolish men in the BLP singing Owen praises like he is some kinda economic Messiah. I still waiting to hear what he going do, man. All he interested in is the same old kinda politics that he raise up with – scandal and corruption. Like he want to get back he own. Is a pity he didn’t interested in corruption when he was in office. Oh Lord, somebody here say he was VERY interested in it.
I ain’t know ’bout y’all but I want to hear from anybody who has a viable plan to diversify and restructure this economy to get things rolling again. Mia already let us into some of her plans at that business people lunch, but I can’t hear from nobody else in the Opposition at all, at all, at all. If they don’t get their act together they going give the Dems the Government by default.
Owen say anything about how he would resolve the CLICO problem? Plenty BARP members want to know what the options are. Plenty people who ain’t had a red cent in CLICO want to know how any rescue plan going affect them. Nuff more people want to know if anybody going get lock up.
Tell we something nuh Owen. You used to be a man we cudda trust, but old age like it turn ya foolish. Tek off the blinkers and remember what is like to serve the people. Fuhget ’bout power and vengeance. Use the talent the Lord give yuh and fix yuh eyes and yuh brain on the bigger picture. Bajans used to love you for that. Right now all we seeing is a petty, unfair, spoil sport wid nuff bitterness in he heart. If yuh cant get it do, go back to UWI and let Mia lead we outta de wilderness. We know yuh aint the man yuh used to be and we would forgive yuh if yuh admit that yuh really aint up to the job. We aint want another return like Barrow. Things gone too far in this precious lil land of ours.
Chris Sinckler might be young and he aint no fool, but he aint got the experience or the know how to get we out. Lord help us coz just like the economy there is no quick fix to this leadership deficit we got ….unless.
BSS say 12.1 CBB say 11%. BSS are the only one who deal with stats so logic says to go with them. now as for the explanation. BSS suvery sampled 1800 people. CBB survey was 30 companies, the new unemployment claims, and feedback from the Barbados Employers’ Confederation (BEC) and trade unions . BSS seem to have more weight. Now let say all the people lost job from small business so those 30 companies play not part. BEC likewise wouldn’t get those numbers. you can only apply for unemployment if you it paid in. If it not paid in the claim wouldn’t exist. Now why would someone do that. to get more of your gross salary currently. or perhaps they where suppose to be paid in but it never happened. last if your not working for big employer you wouldn’t be in a trade union. so we have some possible factors that show bss might be right. Was q1 sample just lucky and hit low employment numbers and then Q2 sample was more realistic ? I think so
WHY are Bajans so passive and laid back ???
WHY is Freundel Stuart still Prime Minister of Barbados ??
WHY is SINCKLER or DONVILLE INISS, RICHARD SEALY OR DAVID ESTWICK not Prime MInister ?
JUST ASKING
This is where my Q3 attention is right about now
yam and potat for who hants and do you want to send the unemployment fgures higher by eliminating the popular macaroni pie from the diet and putting people out of work? only a small segment of our population eat ground provisions.
@Snipes
Jump started how? By stimulus i.e. spending money?
The economy can only be ‘jump started’ by getting more tourists to visit and spend more.
By attracting more foreign capital inflow.
By getting more Barbadians overseas to remit.
We can spend domestically but we have to earn foreign exchange to pay for our humungous imports given our veracious appetite for consumer durables made over in away.
@lemuel
Agree with you and some on BU have warned about this time.
We also disregard the protracted nature of the global economic situation.
@David
“We can spend domestically but we have to earn foreign exchange to pay for our humungous imports given our veracious appetite for consumer durables made over in away”
Yes, David, we do. However, when foreign exchange is scarce, and we still need it for fuel and to import items that are not made in Barbados, it makes very good sense to buy those items that are made here. Jamaica and Trinidad, two countries that Bajans love to look down on, have a strong loyalty to their local brands. For some reason, up until now, Bajans seem to feel that they are above all that. Well, it’s crunch time, and unless we start to circulate our money within Barbados, we will end up with a foreign exchange problem, and we can kiss the new fridges and washing machines goodbye, as all our FX earning will be used for fuel. Buying Bajan makes good economic sense and we should all look to do more of it. With Bajans out of work to the tune of 11%+, why should we give jobs to Trinis and Chinese?
Anthony; Your analysis of the BSS and BCB positions on the unemployment statistics makes a lot of sense.
David wrote “We also disregard the protracted nature of the global economic situation.”
Not yuh boy Hants. But I live in Canada and have experienced the downturn in the economy.
My plan to start a business in Barbados has been stopped in its tracks and I may have to continue living in Canada till I die.
I have had to tighten my belt and so will wunna. Plant some fruit trees and start a kitchen garden.
And David you will notice that I posting from a different location. Uh had to tek a day Job cause muh business loss nuff money during de recession which did not affect Utopia…uh mean Barbados.
@checkit-out
and of course if the bss had pull 9% as unemployment. Everyone would be questioning how can it be so and the CBB would have went along with the number no questions asked. No notice, no suvery. I think BSS just hit the lucky batch for Q1 number and Q2 is more realistic
Most of the writers who are criticizing the economic performance of Barbados are really not being rational but all about seeing the BLP returned to power. It is your right but it pains me, when in your analysis you never take into consideration what is happening in the global economy that will also confront your party if it regains power.
Now here is a quote from the TT Minister of Finance whose country has oil and gas wealth to make my point.
“GOVERNMENT did not take the “easy way out” of raising taxes and cutting social spending with the 2011/ 2012 national budget, according to Finance Minister Winston Dookeran.
He said it was quite a challenge to keep increased revenue without adding a taxation burden.
The country was overburdened and not able to turn the corner of growth, he said, but added that there were many unexplored areas of existing taxation that could be explored”
You are behaving like what Haunts said that Barbados is this UTOPIA.
Our foreign exchange dropped from 20 weeks of imports to 18 weeks. Why is this so?
I have noticed so many new cars, Suvs and jeeps on the road and we are still into exotic foods and fooling ourselves wasting away or scarce foreign exchange.
The government must take the lead and show Barbadians that we cannot afford to carry on with this lifestyle if we are not earning foreign exchange. Stop buying those big rides for messengers to drive around in air condition. Cut back on so many ministers travelling to non-essential meetings.
Combine the Ministry of agriculture with NCC and plant back all agricultural lands that are waiting for sub divisions until the recession is over.
Afterall the complaining the bhta did about not seeing the numbers show by the central bank we see the cbb has finally fallen in line with their pronouncement on the situation. their sept 2010 fx figures seem wrong in comparison to central bank online report which have fx reserve at 1.51 billion after injection of 100 million us in august. We know electricity usage has been down for the year so how does it go up in constant prices table. consturction has been mostly flat to declining for the year so how that went up in constant prices. government expenditure by their own admission has gone down so how can that have gone up in constant price. If we account for 6% inflation to the import bill distribution shouldn’t have gone up by that much in constant prices. It all looks very puzzling to some people.
@clone
I have noticed so many new cars, Suvs and jeeps on the road and we are still into exotic foods and fooling ourselves wasting away or scarce foreign exchange
New car sales have drop 40% since 2008. the import bill has dropped 20% from the peak in 2008. the reason why the fx reserve weeks has drop is due to the inflation 7% decrease of 20 is 18.6. The country isn’t making enough fx exchange after the government said it was for the past 2 quarters reality has caught on most likely because the IMF is in town.
I think it’s ramen time!
@ anthony:
“The country isn’t making enough fx exchange after the government said it was for the past 2 quarters reality has caught on most likely because the IMF is in town.”
Six more months and we will be in the clutches of the international loan sharks.
Mark the Anunnaki words!
@ DAVID
If ANTHONY’S economic perturbations for Barbados is correct – you guys could be heading for possible median GREEK-STYLE* STAGFLATION (meaning high unemployment numbers nearing 15% – 20%); a pathetically anemic economy with almost 0% growth; bolstered by a substantial EROSION* of foreign reserves; dwindling FX due to diminishing TOURIST* numbers from EUROZONE countries; skyrocketing food prices; cuts in wages; and an all-round acrid social and political system on its knees…
This descriptive analysis is a foretaste of the coming GREAT DEPRESSION 2 which will start in so-called 1st world countries and will have a knock-on effect in developing countries like BIM*…
Regrettably, Stuart & Arthur et al are “ALL” powerless PAWNS* in a global CIRCUS* of coming attractions that will make the 1930’s look like (to quote a former commentator – “UTOPIA”*)…
So forget the PARTY POLI-TRICKS* boys – this is outside of the realms of mortal men who want you to believe that their S.H.I.T* don’t smell (an acronym I will not expound on at this time) but moreover, fooling the masses into believing that they have all the answers…
Take for example, today’s figures in sunny ‘ole London-town as unemployment ebbs toward [2.6] million with almost [1] million being amongst our young people (at a [17] year high)…
Growth currently is at a record 0.2%; food prices according to the Guardian – “a typical shopping basket in Britain now costs around 6% more than it did last year but specific foods and key staples are clearly much dearer. Some English butter is up 40% in a year, chocolate biscuits 50%, coffee 20% and pasta 29%. Bread is up 98%; cooking oil 53%; luxury chocolate 80%; Sugar 48%; beef 32%; rice 33% and the shopping list goes on…”
So if folks this side of the pond are having a serious “MOAN” about the escalating cost at the “TIL”, the petrol pump and in the UTILITY* sectors (thank God you BUGGERS* don’t have to suit & boot for cold, wet winters – not to mention, heating houses and cars) – just imagine the SPIN-OFF* effect on the BAJAN* economy…
You lot can be in DENIAL* all you want – but when your creature comforts are curtailed and you can no longer service your inglorious lifestyles propped up by borrowed monies, astronomical DEBT* and as my grandma would say – “HANGING YOUR HAT HIGHER THAN YOU CAN REACH IT” – well FOLKS*, it will only be a matter of time before the house of cards come crashing down…
With the time left guys – DOWNSIZE… PAY-OFF ALL DEBTS*…TIGHTEN YOUR BELTS & above all, save a PENNY outa’ a CENT…. For those with a few “BOB” – take a fool’s advice – BUY SOME GOLD!!!
@ TMB:
I would like to see a bright side for Barbados. But the Sun is no longer shinning so bright for BIM and is getting dimmer by the day.
Old Blithey seems to be on her way out! A terrible place to be when things are really tough! And like the mother country, Little England is not too far behind and holding on to its mother’s coat tail.
Your advice to move into gold is sound and seriously taken by the rich and wise. Here in Bim, the migration to gold as a future medium of exchange is beginning to take off and is the attraction for many robberies and burglaries in the place. However, the precious metal is being sent abroad in return for greenbacks. We all know the mighty greenback is about to fall so hard in 2012 as to generate such an economic tsunami that will decimate Western economies and make the 1930’s Depression look like the early 1990’s Recession in Bim.
Take care, old chap and make sure you don’t get your knickers in a twist while sounding the trumpet of the inevitable socio-economic dislocation necessary to make way for a new age as the Sun prepares to position (align) itself on the galactic cross.
It is interesting to note that commentators are stressing the irrelevance of Mr. Barker’s point. Quite to the contrary, trends, certainty, and the integrity of the very institutions are being called into question. If one is to accept the Central Bank’s position, it readily throws the BSS’s integrity into question and hence no credible international institution can trust their statistics. Equally so, if we accept that both institutions are speaking with a similar margin of error, then the results would indicate that one is suggesting that Barbados’ unemployment rate is consistent with a marginal increase while the other is above regional averages. To further draw conclusions, it would indicate that on the one hand Barbados is not providing sufficient leadership on economic matters whilst the other one may indicate that Barbados’ economic prudence is well vested in the right hands. I choose to say that at this time, Barbados is lacking and it appears that the Central Bank appears to be coming down on the side of government policy rather than stating what are the facts.
It is my estimation after reading the central Bank’s report that the government needs to urgently reassess its medium term strategies for the economy and to revisit its growth path; obviously the ‘trends’ are not in the right direction.
@David
I don’t know if the following 7 points will help Bajans understand the economic problems the whole world is experiencing.
(1)President Obama jobs bill fails to pass Senate
(2)BRUSSELS, Sept 30 (KUNA) — The unemployment rate in the 27
member European Union was 9.5 percent in August,
unchanged compared with July.
Unemployment in the 17-member euro area was 10.0 percent in August,
unchanged compared with July.
These figures were released Friday by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office.
(3)Greece will default deficit targets 2011-2012
(4)Eurozone problems could blight world economy: British PM David Cameron
(5)Alan Greenspan: Eurozone’s Problems Can’t be Overestimated
(6)Angela Merkel warned that dealing with the continent’s debt crisis –
which has sent shivers around the world — will be long and even painful.
(7)UK economic growth cut to 0.1% for April to June
The UK economy barely grew in the second quarter as consumers
cut spending, compounding more downbeat news
from the eurozone and fuelling fears that Britain could soon slip back into recession.
@ Chuckles:
Terence M. Blackett has been doing a fine job of that!
@ Chuckles
Tell BU the reasons behind those 7 points.
I repeat, the global economic crisis was/is a perfect opportunity for real regional integration; and our economies should be restructured to fit into a regional economy. PS: trade and services represent but a small part of the much bigger picture.
@millertheanunnaki
Thanks. Having read Terrence’s fine article, I was between two minds as to
whether I should have posted mine, which I believe I was compiling while he was clicking on the “post comment’ button at the bottom of the page. lol
@Enuff
I repeat, the global economic crisis was/is a perfect opportunity for real regional integration; and our economies should be restructured to fit into a regional economy. PS: trade and services represent but a small part of the much bigger picture.
———————————————————————————————–Is there real regional integration in the EU? How has it helped?
@millertheanunnaki
Thanks BRUV*…
I appreciate you staying on the wall – blowing the “bugle” with a clarion call to those who will listen…
Most in BIM* cannot envisage long, long, long lines running all down the Harbour Road as the good folks in Barbados wait in line to buy bread, rations and a few meager staples because it sounds like something out of a cinematographic Hollywood movie or lines from a historical novel based on a bygone age… Little do we realize that this scenario looms precariously on our doorsteps making 1970’s and 80’s Soviet Union bread lines look like a picnic…
No one in Barbados can even envisage a country where the shelves at JB’s, SUPERCENTRE and all the other “temples” of economic and dietary commerce LAID BARE* by crushing, seismic global forces which we all saw coming but were too reticent to acknowledge and in a stupor of abject denial, refused to heed the writing on the wall…
Europeans once thought that “CHEAP FOOD” was a basic human rite where they could pay 9 pence for a tin of baked beans ad infinitum… Now that same tin cost 32 pence and the spiraling cost of food which most took for granted is now the TOPIC* of conversation on the lips of many…
So as the “COST” of living goes up – the “CHANCES” of living goes down…
We can choose to believes the LIES* spewed by our beloved POLITICIANS* as they continue to tighten the noose around our necks in a desperate ploy to squeeze the last ounce of blood out of stone…
Time for the UNREST* to hit the street of Barbados…
APATHY IS NOT AN EXCUSE OR AN OPTION!!!
@TMB… To your above.
I agree many Bajans have no idea what they might realisticly face in the very near future.
But what scares me the most is we as a country have become so dependent on food imports, while so much of our land has fallen fallow.
We used to produce a great deal of sugar cane for export — at a loss; both for ourselves and the importers.
Why cannot we use this land to grow food for ourselves?
Oh!!! I know why — because the honest farmers had their crops stolen a day or two before they were to be harvested.
Hmmmm….
@ Chuckles
What has led to the EU crisis? What was missing from the EU framework that led to the crisis? And who says the EU way of integration was the only and correct way? Ever hear of comparative and absolute advantage?
@ @millertheanunnaki
Barbados and its CARICOM* partners must be watching with bated breath for the coming IMPLOSION* within the EUROZONE…
If there was any doubt in the minds of our Caricom leaders that amalgamation works – THINK AGAIN!!!
Germany, France & Britain knew that as far back as the formation of the ECM that stronger economies would eventually have to either prop up or BAIL-OUT* weaker economies because it is a natural emergent phenomenon of Keynesian capitalism…
Nevertheless, they undertook the Protocol of the ELDERS* because late capitalist GLOBALIZATION* was hatched way back in the days of ADAM SMITH as a precursor which would ultimately lead to a world with no “ECONOMIC BORDERS” ruled by a fractional ELITE*…
So everything is on track for meltdown where the sociogenesis of cultural Darwinism will be the litmus test which separates the “men” from the “boys”; the “weak” from the “strong”; and where the survival of the fittest will be left to inhabit a planet of scarce resource – controlled by the ILLUMINATED ONES*…
@Enuff
Textbook Economic Theory. Man, the European economists know all about comparative and absolute advantage. You honestly believe that they did
read the same text books as you? Can you name an integration which isn’t affected by the global economic crisis?
@Chuckles: “Textbook Economic Theory. Man, the European economists know all about comparative and absolute advantage.
So then is it not reasonable to expect the Germans to be the first to leave the Euro Currency, and decoupling their currency?
A bonus question: were the English not really smart by not ever entering it?
2.17 posting should have read
‘You honestly believe that they did not read the same text books as you?’
@Christopher Halsall
You ever heard of “Brecking fuh yuhself?” Nothing will surprise me if there isn’t a speedy solution to the crisis.
Yes, the English have always been smart. I once went to a butcher’s shop in Ealing and called for 3 kilos of pork and butcher told me that his scale was an English scale. I laughed and told him to make it 6 lbs. He weighed a little under 6-1/2 lbs and told me that is what I wanted but forget the metric weight when visiting his shop. lol
George C. Brathwaite | October 12, 2011 at 12:04 PM |”I t is my estimation after reading the central Bank’s report that the government needs to urgently reassess its medium term strategies for the economy and to revisit its growth path; obviously the ‘trends’ are not in the right direction.”
What is the right direction George C. Brathwaite ?
@ CH
“Why cannot we use this land to grow food for ourselves?”
You make a solid argument Chris but you and I know there is no POLITICAL or social WILL* for our people to “ACT” outside of the box…
Chris, you know that we run from the land as if it were a PLAGUE*… Yet in the EU, the US and elsewhere the richest FOLKS* are FARMERS*…
Our leaders have forged in the smelting house of [40] odd years of INDEPENDENCE* – a dependency cultural based on ACADEMIC* pursuits where we now have an entire “GENERATION” fortified with all kinds of diplomas, degrees and pieces of paper with CLAIMS* of being the most educated people on earth – but there’s no JOBS*, upward mobility or FUTURE* prospects to create the next visionary products and services in a country so blessed with talents…
So going forward, there’s gotta’ be a REVAMP* of how we have done things both in the past and now currently…
If not, like our foreparents we will be eating the bread the devil knead and waiting on others for a handout when we ought to be desiring a hand up!!!
@hants
Obviously the right direction cannot be increasing unemployment, decline in revenues from international business and services, decline in foreign exchange revenues from tourism despite apparent quantitative numbers. Let us start there and have serious dialogue. For example, is a focus on different markets counterproductive in tourism? Should Barbados not be chasing the upscale markets wherein it does not necessarily matter in terms of ‘luxury’ and ‘affordability’? I beg you not to shoot me for asking for a new direction or at least to revisit it; rather we urgently need to seek out all ideas so as to come up with possible answers that may anchor us.
Mr.Halsall
The only way food production is going to increase is when the government sees it as part of the security of Barbados. The Defence Force must be utilized to lessen the occurrences of praedial larceny.
The Defence force in combination with the police patrols the rural parishes of St. Joseph, St. Andrew, St. John and St. Peter to protect the tourists, why can’t it be done for agriculture.
I am happy for Mr.Blackett’s comments of what happened in the world in the past and what is possible in the future.
Maybe it would be a good thing if Barbadians experience a greater level of hardships because what they are going through now is mild to what happens in other parts of the world.
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.