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Bombardier C Series

Now, with all the prevailing conditions, it might not seem to be the most likely time to even consider starting up a new airline, especially here in the Caribbean. But, maybe there is an opportunity here at last, to establish a regional and international airline, that has a logical operating base, has a staff count that is sustainable and operating costs lower than existing carriers.

Being an aircraft manufacturer must be one of the most difficult industries in the world. You have to look far up the road, calculate, if not gamble, what your customers are likely to need in many years to come and then spend almost incomprehensible amounts of money on research and development. I am sure hand-on-heart, not many of the airline makers executives could have foreseen just how quickly and dramatically fuel prices would rise.

Now every airline is galvanised into reducing costs in just about every conceivable way possible. Cost-saving measures include removing all in flight reading material, life jackets and the more obvious ones like charging for second (or first) pieces of luggage. It’s perhaps easy to forget that Canada is the world’s third largest aircraft builder and has had an enviable history in the aviation industry.

Projects like the world beating Avro Arrow gave them a lead even on their southern neighbour for a while, until politics took over. Bombardier will soon launch is CSeries, which has already captured the interest of the German carrier, Lufthansa, who I understand has  signed a letter of interest to acquire up to 60 of the new planes. With a seating capacity of between 100 and 145 passengers and an operating distance of between 2,200nm (nautical miles) and 2,950nm with a full payload, it seems to be perfect for most of the routes operated into Barbados from both within the Caribbean, and North, South and Central America.

But this is the crunch.

The CSeries will burn up to 20% less fuel than existing equipment currently available, emit 20% less CO2, 50% less NOx, fly four times more quietly and bring a reduction of 15% in improved cash operating costs.*

In the words of Bombardier’s Commercial Aircraft President ‘These are game-changing aircraft’. The only drawback appears to be that the aircraft will not enter service until 2013. But in terms of our medium to long term tourism master plan, that really is not light years away and there just maybe an opportunity of creating something that will lessen our dependency on factors that we are unable to control.

Just this year alone, we have seen the dramatic reduction of airlift into Puerto Rico and its spokes, XL Airways recently announced they are cancelling their entire Caribbean programme effecting six territories and Zoom Airlines left hundreds of passengers stranded while they entered protected bankruptcy. Other airlines have reduced capacity or curtailed routes until hopefully business picks up again.

I am not sure just how many opportunities we can afford to ignore.

When European Vision sat idly by in Carlisle Bay for months and was finally sold-off for about US$250 million, we missed such an opportunity. While extra regionally based cruise ship companies continue to derive the majority of their profits from within the Caribbean. Successive Canadian Government’s have been kind to Barbados and to the Caribbean generally. Responsible investment and financial support has been the hallmark of their relationship with us.

Is there just someway, we just might be able to realise the dream that many of us in tourism have, that we can in fact run a commercially successful airline that helps drive our principal industry?

Is it just a dream, or could it become true?

Adrian Loveridge

30 August 2008

* Source – Airline World

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19 responses to “An Impossible Dream?”


  1. Adrian L we hate to say it but you are spinning tot in mud. Before the region and or individual country can determine airline strategy the vexing issue of how the region will share limited resources comes to the fore. More importantly is the master strategy which you mentioned. It is no sense Barbados having a strategy which does not in some way plug in to a CARICOM, CARIFORUM, CSME strategy…oops which is it?


  2. Sorry Adrian, this idea cannot fly.

    Mass tourism via air travel is about to end.

    The last thing we should be recommending to our status hungry, but dollar foolish, politicians is to buy into a dying and extremely expensive dream.

    When long standing private aviation experts are going bankrupt by the dozen, what possible reason is there to believe we could organise and run a profitable airline.

    The downside would make CWC 2007 look like a good investment.


  3. I agree with Straight talk,tourism via flights is coming close to an end.The reality is that cruises look to be the future of tourism.In fact,St. Lucia is already expanding their marinas to accomadate large ocean going liners.

  4. Adrian Loveridge Avatar
    Adrian Loveridge

    David, Straight Talk and Jay,

    You have overwhelmed me with your lack of faith. What you are saying is that we can loose
    $200 million on a small group of Government owned hotels, the ABC highway, Royal St. Dodds Golf and Country Club and Greenland (to name a few) but that a a COMMERCIALLY driven airline with regionally available aviation experts could not be successful.

    Then, perhaps you are right, there is no hope!


  5. It is not possible to talk about regional integration without an airline that could serve the region. This will also make it easier for tourists to travel between islands.

    So, therefore it would be good to get a few 60 seaters that are economical on fuel and with all the above specs and specialise in inter-island travel.

    Outside of this, the only question I would ask is why is it so economical to bring tourists to the region? How can we have a destination and do not provide transportation to get to and from it?


  6. Marinas can accomodate large ocean going liners? What rubbish I hearing.


  7. Adrian,

    What faith are we supposed to retain in a government that increasingly supports an obviously failing LIAT, to run its own operation.

    Barbados is a regional hub and that is where our tourism priority should be targetted.

    Let other islands and entrepreneurs investigate profitable niches in inter-island travel.

    Let the focus of the BTA and the regional magnet be Grantley Adams and leave the riskier routes to the risk takers.

    David, Straight Talk and Jay,

    You have overwhelmed me with your lack of faith. What you are saying is that we can loose
    $200 million on a small group of Government owned hotels, the ABC highway, Royal St. Dodds Golf and Country Club and Greenland (to name a few) but that a a COMMERCIALLY driven airline with regionally available aviation experts could not be successful.

    Then, perhaps you are right, there is no hope!


  8. Airbus and Boeing: a Gloomy Market Outlook

    by Kristen Lagadec for GlobalPublicMedia

    When you google ‘Airbus Boeing Peak Oil’, the top result is this article ( http://www.wisemandarine.com/why-airbus-and-boeing-will-soon-go-bust/ ) that I wrote in the summer of 2006. Being a Cassandra proved right gives one all sorts of uneasy feelings, but I will carry on in that direction and offer a revised version of my prophecy, adorned with new details.

    In a nutshell: people are talking a lot about the difficulties for airlines with $150-a-barrel oil. But we also have to understand that it is going to be much worse for aircraft manufacturers. They probably know it; but they cannot believe what they know, and they cannot say it either. This is not just another crisis for air transportation and aerospace construction: this is the last crisis until the end of the fossil fuel era.

    Hard times for airlines

    First an important premise: there are no serious alternatives to jet fuel for airliners. And even if there were, they could never be cheap in a world of expensive energy. The problem is not that oil is scarce: the productionhas never been this high — that’s why we call it Peak Oil. The problem is that energy supply is not meeting global demand: until demand abates, any type of energy will end up costing the same, be it classical kerosene, gas-to-liquid synthetic jet fuel, or biodiesel. Regardless of the environmental footprint. Just know that if it was technologically feasible, filling an A380 tank with biofuel would use up 150 hectares of yearly yield,considering an optimistic figure of 2000 litres per hectare for Jatropha biodiesel. You’d need 150x2x365x150 = 16 millionhectares — the arable land in France — to power the currently ordered A380 fleet.

    Meanwhile the fuel efficiency improvements do not come anywhere close to compensating the price surge. Boeing claim that their new 787 will burn 20% less fuel than current jets of the same category (namely the 767 or A330). 20% is how much oil prices rose between the beginning of April and mid-May 2008: 30 years of technological improvement in aircraft and engine design will offset six weeks of price increase, and no technological Deus ex Machina will change that deal.

    The obvious consequence is that cheap flights are gone for good. We are currently witnessing a fast concentration of the market, because the fierce competition prevents airlines from transferring the whole fuel bill to their passengers. As the weaker players exit the arena, ticket prices will rise until the few remaining airlines can break even financially. We will see a trend of de-democratization of air travel, and people will gradually change their travel habits, starting with the poorer and newer travelers.

    There is a second key element that will drive air traffic down: as planemakers’ market forecasts point out, air traffic growth is consistently correlated to world GDP growth. No need to be a psychic to imagine that GDP growth will seriously suffer from expensive energy. When people’s purchasing power shrinks because of the energy bill, they will think twice before flying. Note that a major economic downturn could very well stop the rise in oil prices or even reduce them for a while. But it will not help air traffic – unemployed people do not fly all that much.

    Continued here:
    http://globalpublicmedia.com/airbus_and_boeing_a_gloomy_market_outlook


  9. ROK wrote, “It is not possible to talk about regional integration without an airline that could serve the region. This will also make it easier for tourists to travel between islands.”

    Agreed ROK, but which one will it be, Air Jamaica, Caribbean Airlines, LIAT, SVG Air, or an amalgam of all of the above.

    Reminds me of the quote from the venerable Professor Eric Williams from the University of Woodbrooke Square after Jamaica seceded from the West Indies federation. The good doctor, in response to Sir Grantley Adams’ plea for regional unity and the preservation of the Federation, said, “TEN MINUS ONE EQUALS ZERO!” In just that tone of voice.

    Now apply the same logic to the formation of ONE regional airline, because that is what we are up against, Adrian’s tenacity and passion notwithstanding.

    35 years as an airline pilot, and having seen ’em all come and go, tells me that this is a worthwhile but vain dream.

    I wish it were different. But it ain’t!


  10. @Iain Edghill,

    I hear what you are saying, but these things solve themselves in time. The need may become more than the greed.

    Maybe this needs a management solution. Let all the airlines contribute aircraf to a pool which is managed and deployed by one company. Can also make charters available through the same company or another company set up specially to handle charters.

    While we talking about air, there is also need for sea transport as well. Both must be solved. Somebody should come up with a business plan that investors can live with. Maybe that generation is yet to come???


  11. Adrian L we have earned the right to be cynical. We remember Carib, Caribbean Airlines, BWIA and the current crop of LIAT, Air Jamaica and the lot. While your idea maybe worthwhile it will still come down to execution.


  12. The only way a truly regional airline can effectively operate is if all the regional government stop paying lip service and support the airline plus reduce the taxes charged to the airline. All the regional government seem to demand their pound of flesh yet expects the airline to function properly. Can’t work.


  13. Let us get serious. An amalgamation of Air Jamaica, Caribbean Airlines, LIAT, SVG Air, or any combination of them is simply not going to happen. Instead of throwing up our hands in despair, let’s get serious.

    Tourism remains for the foreseeable future the life blood of the entire Caribbean (apart from T&T) and the plasma of this life blood is reliable and reasonably priced air travel to facilitate it.

    We must simply have the resolve to do what it takes to achieve this goal. We must start with what we have got, and what we have got is LIAT.

    The shareholder Governments, Barbados, Antigua and St. Vincent need to get tough first of all with the other Caribbean territories which do not contribute to LIAT’s operation. Exclude them from the airline’s schedule until they see the light. And I think they will see the light pretty quick. This action will hurt LIAT in the short term, but I guarantee you it will be temporary.

    Concomitant with this, the decision must be taken by each government to remove ALL fees, charges, levies, taxes, whatever, from air travel on LIAT. Governments must be made to stop strangling the goose that lays our tourism egg.

    The Government of Antigua must be forced to stop using LIAT as a source of jobs for the faithful and imperiling its viability. If it doesn’t, move the base to Barbados.

    Tough decisions need to be made to secure the future of any integration movement and intra regional travel and trade. Once a base of profitability has been established, LIAT would then be in a position to expand its services or negotiate with other regional airlines from a position of strength. Pie in the sky? We won’t know until we give it a serious try.

  14. Adrian Loveridge Avatar

    Inkwell,

    How true!

    Thats while I started with logical operating base and sustainable employee levels.

    I am not for a second suggesting ANY Caribbean Government financially or operationally get involved.

    And David, Carib Express could have worked if they had sticked to the middle distance routes. ie: Barbados-St.Maarten, Georgetown, Kingston, San Juan etc.


  15. ROK wrote:

    “Maybe this needs a management solution.”

    ROK, that is precisely what is NOT needed. Part of the problem is that most airlines are “over-managed” and “under-led.” What is needed in the Caribbean is more leadership, not more management.

    The last time there was visionary leadership in the airline business was when Juan Trippe led Pan Am, Herb Kelleher led Southwest, and Hollis Harris led Air Canada. The rest of them were mere managers.

    Managers are like politicians, leaders are like statesmen. I’ve heard it said that a politician thinks only about the next election, whereas a statesman thinks about the next generation.

    This is an immediate, and a future issue. Solve it, and we’ll have a base on which to move forward. And, for the record ROK, I fully agree with you about the need for regional integration and cooperation.

    Adrian wrote:
    “Carib Express could have worked if they had sticked to the middle distance routes. ie: Barbados-St.Maarten, Georgetown, Kingston, San Juan etc.”

    Adrian, from an operational standpoint, because that’s my area of competence, Carib Express was doomed from the start. Great idea, lousy execution. Would take up too much bandwidth here to elaborate but would be happy to explain it to you 1-on-1 sometime.


  16. Adrian L as we wrote before we commend the suggestion but the problem we suggest again will be in the ability of the shareholders of LIAT to deliver.

    We are basing our skepticism on the historical behaviour of our politicians over the years. Also factor that Barbados has lead for CSME.

    Do you think Barbados will take any decision that will create dissent in CARICOM?

  17. Adrian Loveridge Avatar

    David,

    To answer your question very simply, people have to believe in something to make it work.

    Can I relate a small example?

    Faithfully, a small hotel in Dominica exhibits each year in our re-DISCOVER the Caribbean Show. One year they could not, because the owner had a bad fall, so I said then please mail your brochures and we will display and distribute them.
    They arrived at the Bridgetown GPO and we were asked to collect them. When we did the GPO demanded nearly $30 in duty for the brochures.
    When I unpacked the parcel, where do you think the brochures were printed?

    BARBADOS!

    Until CariCom can convince the majority of us that it truly works, then people are going to remain sceptical.

    They can start with an open sky agreement within CariCom.


  18. I wouldn’t call it an impossible dream. I’d call it a financially risky and possibly deadly dream though. If you decide to follow through with it let me know how it goes, maybe I’d be interested in investing.


  19. Our P.M had come up with the fantastic idea of a ferry service and my belief was that this service would be in place within a few months. While I still think it would have been too quick to have it already, the talk, like many other promises seems to have gone on the back burner.

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