NIS Reserves Projected by IMF to be Exhausted in 2037 – UPP Candidate Craig Harewood Muted by VoB

From the left Craig Harewood , UPP and Glyne Murray, VoB moderator

‘The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world. Created in 1945, the IMF is governed by and accountable to the 189 countries that make up its near-global membership.’IMF Website

The IMF is one of the leading financial institutions in the world established to support member countries. Barbados became a member in December 1970 and under Stand-By arrangements in October 1982 and 1992 accessed SDR46.35 of SDR55.77 approved. Given the perilous state of the Barbados economy it is no surprise that there is a clamour from many quarters for Barbados to access foreign currency support at concessionary rate given our forex level and junk credit rating.

Our membership in the IMF ensures that we benefit from rigorous monitoring to ensure ‘’policies that are conducive to orderly economic growth and reasonable price stability, avoid manipulating exchange rates for unfair competitive advantage, and to provide the IMF with data about its economy’’. BU must conclude given our interrupted membership in the IMF for forty six years successive government see value in the membership.

In an IMF working paper titled  National Insurance Scheme Reforms in the Caribbean of October 2016 the IMF signalled to several Caribbean countries that with an ageing population, negative to anaemic economic growth, and rising unemployment numbers national insurance funds in the region, projected deficits will deplete assets in the coming years. The following graph extracted from the working paper estimates that on its current trajectory NIS reserves for Barbados will be exhausted by 2037. The reserves represent the excess funds explained as ‘income from contributions and investments that exceed the expenditures on benefits and administration that has accumulated over time’’.

On today’s (21/04/2017) Voice of Barbados talk show United Progressive Party (UPP) candidate Craig Harewood attempted to raise the matter and was bundled off the airwaves by moderator Glyne Murray. By asking the UPP candidate to investigate the assumptions used by the IMF in the working paper to support the projection  that NIS reserves will be exhausted in 2037 in the opinion of BU was unprofessional by host Glyne Murray. Given the importance of the NIS fund to protecting the financial security of senior citizens of Barbados the intervention by Harewood should have been welcomed by the moderator and used to share his vast knowledge as a former minister of government. It is ironic that the Nation newspaper cited the IMF working paper in an article  credited to Gregory Hinkson a former manager of Investments at the NIS Investment and specialist in pension investment analysis titled  Social Security under pressure. Someone should assure Murray that the analysis of the IMF staffers was supported by the 2011 Actuarial Review.

Listen at 17:17 into the recording to hear the exchange between Murray and Harewood.

The management of the NIS fund has been targeted by the BU community over the years –the  burning issue remains the unavailability of recent financials of the fund and the late disclosure of the 15th Actuarial Review as at 2014.  It is instructive under Concluding Remarks on page 18 of the working paper the IMF recommends, ‘’Finally, it is imperative that the authorities begin to build national awareness of the fiscal risk associated with the pension schemes and the need for reforms. At a minimum, the actuarial deficits should be systematically monitored and reported to the public with more frequency and a degree of detail to allow proper evaluation of the fiscal risk’’.

BU suspects Murray needs to understand what exhausted reserves by 2037 means AND VOB should apologize to Harewood by inviting him to make his point without fear of moderator harassment.

94 comments

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    And it certainly wont help the situation when NIS fund is put under extreme pressure when used as the personal ATM for government incompetence and allowed by Cow, Bizzy, Maloney et al to be used as their personal ATM…they have no entitlement to that money, it’s bad enough hundreds of millions of dollars is missing from the treasury….the NIS should be no one’s ATM machine expect for pensioners, it’s their money..

    Like

  • The SDR vs the US Dollar as Global Trading Currency.

    We are very concern about the levels of Foreign Exchange to the point that Barbados is at the doorstep of devaluation, significant reduction of imports (food and consumerables et al), debt servicing defaults etc.

    Today, the SPRING MEETING 2017 sessions of the WORLD BANK and IMF will meet to initiate the SDR… “SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHTS” which has been tooted as “THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL RESET”.

    This reset seeks to eliminate AND replace the US DOLLAR as the current global trading dollar, to end the grip of the “International Banking Cartel and replace it with the SDR (FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADING) which will be issued by THE WORLD BANK and must be applied for.

    What does this mean?.. What are the implications for Barbados?

    The US Dollar will be on par with all other currencies with no special value. It also mean that ALL US Dollars around the globe will have NO TRADING VALUE. It also mean that the return of all US currency back to the homeland will create hyperinflation and be like any regional currency and will only be good within the US.
    It also mean that the US will be unable to print money to settle their debts but would have to convert US Dollars to SDR like all other Sovereign States in order to trade globally.

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  • @David? “NIS RESERVES PROJECTED BY IMF TO BE EXHAUSTED IN 2037”

    Thank God I’ll be dead by then.

    That is why I say the old men (and women) should get out of the way and let the young people handle things.

    Like

  • @ nineofnine
    Listen CAREFULLY boss.

    If and when that SDR replaces the US$ ….
    PLEASE know that it is time to make your last wish…. and to look for holes…
    THAT will be the clearest sign yet of the coming imminent and sudden devastation….
    …or the “trials and tribulations” …as another source puts it.

    Like

  • Sunshine Sunny Shine

    Glyne Murray has proven that, like the DLP cover it up machinery, he represents a party who will also do the same thing when facts are proving the nonsense that are elected leaders are doing in the name of good governance. Its simply a repeat of the same and change that will remain even it is plastered to look different.

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  • Bernard Codrington

    The NIS is primarily a Pay As You Go system . The current employed pay the pensions of past employed. The ratio of present workers to pensioners is the key figure. In an aging population where the pensioners are likely to increase, balance can be restored by increasing the age of eligibility for pensions or increase the level of contributions, or increase the level of the employed. There is nothing inevitable or deterministic about a trajectory.

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  • Bernard Codrington

    This issue is another case where economic growth and increased employment is very important. This does not deny that the BOD and Management of the NIS should exercise competent management of the Surplus Funds.

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  • BUSHIE,
    we better start looking for dem holes, the elites up there makin their moves, April 24-25 New York simulation /drill may blame North Korea … trying to post the other half to the above but it aint getting through…. summer nuff confusion too

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  • West Indian Arawak-Carib lineage…our Coat of Arms is personal explaining who Bajans are, we have unique lineage and do not even appear African…

    Many Bajans may not know this, as they don’t interact with Africans or Europeans much…we look very different from them…we gave the high cheekbones and fine strand hair of the Arawak-Caribs

    ANYBODY IN BARBADOS WITH RED SKINNED PEOPLE IN THEIR FAMILY OR PHOTO ALBUMS know that they aren’t mixed European and African….

    NEITHER CAN PRODUCE THOSE COLORS, apart or together

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  • @Bernard

    You are aware the pensionable age will be increased to 67 next year? You would have noted the IMF comment regarding the disadvantage of increasing the pensionable age quoted below? Also take note of Note of 20 in the working paper. By your intervention we will continue to see the increase in pensionable age given the widening gap between retirement and life expectancy in Barbados.

    It is also interesting to note Barbados has the highest NIS contribution rate n the Caribbean.

    The disadvantages include: possible deterioration in the quality of life and a higher level of anxiety for older workers.20

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  • @Bernard

    Again you have stated the obvious and this explains BU’s preoccupation with the management of the NIS fund and the imperative to have an oversight system that removes politically flavoured decision making.

    Again you would have noted that the recommended prudential limit for the fund to invest in government securities is 54% and Barbados is reported to be at 74% based on reports. The graph on page 12 graphically depicts our investment mix compared to other Caribbean countries. What do the other fund managers know that we do not?

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  • For people like Hal who prefer the views of the local analysts here is what Gregory Hinkson had to comment in the Nation article linked in the blog.

    For social security institutions, there are three main inflection points to consider. The first inflection point is when overall expenditure exceeds contribution income. In this case the scheme must draw on its investment income to meet expenditure payments.

    The second inflection point is when expenditure exceeds total income (contribution income and investment income), and at this point the scheme should start drawing down its reserves to meet expenditure payments, and the third critical point is when the reserves are exhausted.

    As outlined in the IMF report, many Caribbean schemes have already crossed the first inflection point, with expenditure expected to exceed contribution income in Barbados and St Lucia within the next two years.

    In Barbados’ case this point is supported by the 14th Actuarial Review of the NIS Fund at December 31, 2011, where it was projected that the expenditure on benefits would exceed the contribution income during 2017.
    – See more at: http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/92234/social-security-pressure#sthash.HxUjQJDc.dpuf

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  • @SSS

    BU was very disappointment to listen to Murray’s reaction to Harewood. Here was an opportunity for the producer of the program to call Walter Blackman, Ian Carrington, William Layne, Gregory Hinkson and a few other experts to educate the public. On the flip side we got the chance to listened to Arthur, Sandra Husbands, Frank Gill et al. It was another dark day in journalism in the country.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Bernard Codrington

    @ David @ 1 : 49 AM

    I will state the obvious again. There is no system that eliminates” politically flavoured decision making.” There is always a cognitive bias whether the commentator admits it or not.

    My basic point was that projections indicate what is LIKELY to happen. I simply pointed out three actions which would avert the dire consequence of the NIS not being able to meet its obligations to pensioners.

    I believe that the NIS is doing the best with what resources are available to them. You and I perhaps would have made alternate decisions. But the call is not ours. I do believe that they are informed by safety and the rate of return on their investments.

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  • The U.S. Cherokee nation citizens can be some of the most disturbed individuals, thinking they are the only natives to the Americas that are worthy of being anything…at all at all at all at all…using weird martial law enforcement, supported by the CIA…well, they wanted me to be a Freemason because they subjected me to torture, forcibly removing vital organs etc. because I am Bajan…nobody from Barbados needs to immigrate to the US, and it’s good riddance to the niggers…to their liking

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/95994/danger-zone

    Well Fruendel the Fraud and his gang of idiots Sinckler et al said that the 19 downgrades Barbados got means nothings…..so who is lying…will any of the untrustworthy government ministers have the balls to tell this dude Herbert to his face that he is a liar.

    “IF BARBADOS DOESN’T improve its woeful credit ratings soon, its economy could be headed for a collapse.

    That is the view of chairman of the Barbados Private Sector Association (BPSA), Charles Herbert, who insisted that not even phenomenal economic growth in the near future could save the island’s economy.
    Pointing out that economic growth “cannot be fast enough”, Herbert contended that the island’s only saving grace is to improve its credit rating so that it can continue to access foreign loans.

    Within the space of a week in March, Barbados suffered two downgrades from international agencies Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s Investors Service.”

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    https://www.barbadostoday.bb/2017/04/22/fsc-eager-to-become-financially-independent-of-govt-chairman/

    A lot of fancy talk, but is this agency doing it’s job of actually regulating insurance companies and other financial institutions. There should be no political or ministerial interference in regulating and filing criminal charges againdt shady insuŕance companies or their criminal minded CEOs or GMs, board of directors and lawyers…..eg CLICO.

    “FSC eager to become financially independent of Govt – Chairman
    Added by Marlon Madden on April 22, 2017.
    Saved under Local News
    0
    With the Freundel Stuart administration under pressure to reduce its spending, at least one regulatory agency says it has already started the process of becoming “financially independent” of Government.”

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    Innìss et al needs to also warn the parasites Bizzy, Cow, Maloney, Bjerkham et al that the public’s ATM is now closed to them.

    “Inniss warns of cuts to social entitlements
    Added by Colville Mounsey on April 22, 2017.
    Saved under Local News
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    A Government minister today warned Barbadians to brace for a significant reduction in state-funded social services.

    Speaking at the end of the General Insurance Association of Barbados’ annual general meeting at Radisson Aquatica hotel this afternoon, Minister of Industry, International Business, Commerce and Small Business Development Donville Inniss cautioned that due to the worrying economic challenges facing the country, the hour had arrived for Barbadians to look after their own welfare and not rely solely on the state.

    “When I look at the adjustments that we are going to have to make to the social services in Barbados, I keep saying that the state cannot keep providing everything to everyone as they expect it. So I tell my children that they are going to have to start to save some money for their children’s insurance, I also tell them that they are going to have to get insurance. We are going to have to inculcate in our people’s minds that they are going have to take a greater level of responsibility for their lifestyle and of course the outcome,” Inniss said.

    The warning comes against the backdrop of concerns about the declining state of the national economy.”

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  • @Bernard

    How do you know that the NIS is doing the best with the resources it has?

    Do we get timely financials and other fund data shared with the public? For example, what about the rental income from the two buildings Warrens? What about the decision to invest in the Four Seasons project. The yield on investments (or lack of it) with contribute to the pace at which pension expense erode pension income and drawdown on reserves.

    Like

  • @ David
    On certain topics, Bernard drops the pace attack and goes for spin…..
    Perhaps he knows the batsman well.

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    All the lies the government has repeatedly and deceptively told bajans for 9 straight years, have all returned to bite them on their asses in just one day….hard.

    Oh Karma, that they all so deserve.

    Like

  • David,
    You misrepresent me again. I am beginning to think this is not a mistake. I do not prefer the views of any local analysts. All I have said is that local analysts, especially our academics, should be the lead analysts on the Barbados economy. There is no preference.

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  • Let the record show the BU household is not anti Glyne Murray. We have a healthy respect for what he has achieved -members of his family are known to ours. We hope he sees this as constructive feedback.

    When Frank Gill called the programme, a former manager of the dilapidated national stadium he asked him -if the roof of the stands were removed if the concrete structures would be safe to accommodate members of the public. Frank Gill responded as a structural engineer wood by saying yes with explanations. Murray did not ask Gill to cite any engineer report di he.? We must be fair!

    Like

  • Here s a summary of the BSPA meeting last evening thanks to Joseph Herbert.

    Joseph Herbert shared a link.

    1 hr

    Here is a summary of my understanding of yesterday’s BPSA meeting. I cannot claim expertise in these areas and certainly I am subject to correction. If I have missed something, please feel free to add. I just think it’s important that this information be disseminated.

    The meeting started with two presentations.

    The first, given by David Small, economist at cibc/first Caribbean, outlined the state of our economy. The key message was that our debt/GDP ratio, which CIBC estimates is actually >150, had become unsustainable. This debt compromises of rapidly increasing ‘local debt’ predominantly held by the NIS and CBB, and what would typically considered to be an acceptable about of foreign debt. However, he explained that our low credit rating has made it impossible to renegotiate our foreign debt at workable interest rates. As a result, even with good economic growth over the next five years, on our current trajectory we will still default, running out of foreign reserves and being unable to pay our foreign creditors.

    A second presentation by Andrew Brathwaite from ICAB outlined how ease of doing business in Barbados remains poor across many indicators. Specific mention was made of Jamaica, which has rapidly improved its ease of doing business. The data presented can be found at http://www.doingbusiness.org.

    The Chairman of the BPSA then gave his presentation.

    He first explained the efforts of the BPSA during his tenure. In August, they started by insisting on quarterly meetings of the full Social Partnership and the establishment of a subcommittee on the ease of doing business. He reported that the Government has responded by scheduling four meetings for 2017, the second of which takes place in May.

    The subcommittee on the ease of doing business has evolved into a number of working groups called CATs, each tasked with solving a specific set of problems, and which comprise key public and private sector stakeholders; the aim of these groups is to find and implement meaningful solutions re: ease of doing business. He called for members of the private sector to get involved in the CATs to which they thought they could contribute to, and to submit any suggestions they could come up with. I will publish a list of the CATs separately.

    He then explained that in March, the BPSA asked Government to form working groups on deficit reduction and foreign exchange within the social partnership. These committees, as we all know, have since submitted their reports and met with the PM and members of his cabinet on Tuesday to discuss these. While he said the contents of these reports remain confidential, he outlined the key elements of the BPSA’s position which was contributed during the process, which can be summarized as follows:

    1. While there are a myriad of problems and opportunities for improvements within our economy, the most pressing problem is our unsustainable debt, and inability to refinance current foreign debt or secure new foreign loans due to our poor credit rating. This must be definitively addressed through cutting expenditure and balancing the budget. If not, we will certainly default on our current trajectory. This must be our primary focus.

    2. If we do not definitively address the deficit NOW with a home grown plan, we will default in a few years, and the multilateral lending agencies with dictate our reforms. The BPSA believes now is our last chance to work together as a country and develop/implement the definitive reforms necessary to eliminate the deficit.

    3. Combined with deficit reduction, in order to restructure our currently unsustainable debt, we must obtain a loan from the IMF (which comes with low interest rates). The BPSA believes we could develop a home-grown plan for eliminating the deficit in the medium term, that would allow us access to such a loan (rather than have these measures dictated to us). He pointed out that only with an IMF loan will we regain access to loans from other multilateral lending agencies.

    4. Barbados cannot afford to pay for the social services we deliver as they currently exist. The solution is either to reduce what services are delivered across the boards, or to introduce means testing and preserve our current basket of social services only for those who cannot afford to pay for them. The BPSA favors the latter approach as a means of protecting the most vulnerable in the society.

    5. The BPSA called on its members to commit to the following: transparency in doing business with government; to insist that all government contracts be subject to tender and to reject "attractive offers"; to work with BRA to pay outstanding taxes (it was highlighted that revenue collection remains a major problem and that responsible tax payers were paying the price for those evading); to work with unions to maintain current levels of employment; to innovate and improve ease of doing business within the private sector.

    The Chairman then explained the government’s response at Tuesday’s meeting. Without being at liberty to discuss specifics, the government at this point has agreed to only some of the recommendations in the two reports submitted. Primarily, they said that a balanced budget will be laid in mid May and committed to "go further than was recommended" in eliminating the deficit. However, this means that there will be no further input from the BPSA until the budget is presented and the government was unable & unwilling to discuss specifics related to this budget. Government did commit to immediately examining how they could reduce spending at three state-owned enterprises (SOEs) – the QEH, Transport Board and SSA – and will be working with the BPSA to address these. It is expected that the PM will make the full contents of the two reports public in due time.

    The Chairman quoted the PM as saying recently recently that the IMF is "just a source of a cheap cash". The point was made that if Government is committed to balancing the budget, why would they not go the step further and obtain the "cheap" loan that deficit reduction would make them eligible for. Such a loan could be used to initiate strategic reforms, repay VAT and income refunds, further stimulating the economy.

    In summary, the key message was that our debt is unsustainable – we must first and foremost eliminate the deficit through strategic public spending cuts, and simultaneously access loans via the IMF and other lending agencies that will allow us to institute necessary reforms. If we act now, we can create a home-grown plan that will be less painful that a default 2-3 years down the line which would result in the IMF dictating reforms. Secondly, we must address the ease of doing business and eliminate corruption – private sector members should tackle this within their own businesses, and should contribute to the CATs which have been formed to systematically address public sector ease of doing business.

    A Q&A session followed.

    Doing Business – Measuring Business Regulations – World Bank Group

    The Doing Business project provides objective measures of business regulations for local firms in…

    doingbusiness.org

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    CommentShare

    7 You, Andrew Simpson, Peter Lawrence Thompson and 4 others

    Comments

    Peter Lawrence Thompson

    Peter Lawrence Thompson This is a coherent summary of yesterday’s meeting, but the chairman also emphasised that the reason for our immediate crisis is that we are effectively shut out of capital markets because of our low credit rating. This makes it infeasible to refinance foreign debt when it comes due so we have been repaying debt out of foreign reserves. This is the primary factor which makes our dwindling foreign reserves such a danger. The immediate urgency in tackling the fiscal deficit is so that we can negotiate with multilateral financial institutions for access to capital to refinance foreign debt as it becomes due.

    Like · Reply · 1 · 45 mins

    Joseph Herbert

    Joseph Herbert Agreed, thanks Peter! I’ve edited my post to reflect this

    Like · Reply · 22 mins · Edited

    Bruce Hennis

    Bruce Hennis The two of you got it right …….. good job guys.

    Like · Reply · 25 mins

    Doug Newsam

    Doug Newsam Using foreign reserves to repay debt indicates either a lack of understanding of the consequences of doing so, or, desperation.

    Like · Reply · 15 mins

    Doug Newsam

    Doug Newsam Thanks for this very clear summation of the procedings.

    Like · Reply · 14 mins

    David King

    David King Thanks for the summary, it captures all the concerns we have been discussing in the public space for many years. As usual we will have to wait on the budget, then wait to see if positions enunciated in said budget are implemented, then discuss when they are not if we go by historical and so on…

    Like · Reply · Just now

    David King

    Write a comment…

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  • I did not commit suicide anywhere.

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    Such an incompetent government, now is the time to be transparent. …in every aspect.

    Like

  • First class minute of the meeting. Should be a reporter.

    Like

  • The NIS behaviour is merely part of an international scheme to transfer public assets into corporate hands.

    And the whole international financial apparatus is part of this. The centre is Wall Street. Of course, the IMF-WB, United Nations are all pushing for this global consolidation of wealth into fewer and fewer hands.

    When for instance, Delisle Worrell was fighting against Sinckler it was a manifestation of the larger global struggle.

    Worrell, as an integral part of the international banking fraternity was representing those forces.

    This is now new Arthur Lewis did a similar thing in the 50’s, 60’s

    When a country has no currency sovereignty, like Worrell seemed to be arguing, and suggest that NIS funds be used instead, the transfer occurs.

    Not that the aimless printing of money by the CB is any less dangerous but a country should have options.

    If money is to be printed for development projects etc, there must be a point certain when that money is also withdrawn as well. So Stinkler is no hero here!

    We expect this fund to go broke. The same forces which are pushing the privatization of public pensions in the USA are seeking to destroy the NIS in Barbados and all similar systems in the world.

    And they will succeed!

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  • @Pacha

    Is this the same Delisle Worrell who ‘cuss’ Legarde?

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  • How well we remember Robert Maxwell and Philip Green,two monster raiders of Company Pension Funds.Freundel Stuart is in the same category for repeatedly raiding the NIS.Its criminal and Barbados and the Caribbean need a Pension Regulator.Liat pilots have a big concern with that carrier using their Pension fund as a source of operations funding and for failing to properly account for its use.Piracy is alive and well in the E.S Caribbean.

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  • Yes David and in the presence of the said Sinckler!

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  • Gabriel,

    Maxwell committed a criminal offence before committing suspected suicide. Green has not been charged with any criminality.

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  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    https://www.barbadostoday.bb/2017/04/21/slash-the-vat-to-under-15-per-cent-government-told/

    let’s hope Sinckler et al have finally learned that an overtaxed country WILL NEVER stimulate growth.

    “Slash the VAT to under 15 per cent – Government told
    Added by Kaymar Jordan on April 21, 2017.
    Saved under Local News
    0
    An across-the-board 10-15 per cent rate of Value Added Tax (VAT) with no exemptions, concessions or zero ratings for any industry or sector is among sweeping tax changes under consideration by Minister of Finance Chris Sinckler as he prepares to make his much-anticipated Budget presentation next month.

    The proposal is among the major recommendations contained in a 30-page document produced by a triparite committee, comprising representatives of Government, the private sector and labour, mandated by Prime Minister Freundel Stuart on March 3 to look at ways of reducing the country’s worrying fiscal deficit, with the island’s 2-to-1 peg with the US dollar already showing cracks, and an all-out balance of payments crisis now a possibility given that Government’s debt rose above 110 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of last year while international reserves fell to $682 million, the lowest level since 2009.

    Barbados TODAY has obtained a copy of the detailed report, which sets out four areas for immediate action in order for the island to achieve a balanced budget by way of savings in the amount of $750 million.

    In addition to lowering the current domestic rate of VAT from 17.5 per cent, which is proposed for implementation over the next nine to 12 months as a means of eliminating revenue leakage and bringing targeted relief to the poor and the vulnerable, the Patrick McCaskie-led committee recommends implementation of a withholding tax on the non-hotel hospitality sector as a means of bringing them into the tax net.”

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  • NorthernObserver

    I have said repeatedly. The challenge most governments face today and going forward is COLLECTING taxes/fees, not LEVYING them.

    To present BALANCED budgets, there has to be some accuracy in the projections. If you consistently inflate revenue projections, and then cannot collect; and underestimate expenses, the budget is a farce. A waste of time. As such the presentation of a ‘Balanced Budget’ solves nothing, unless it represents a realistic chance of Balance, and not some farcical dreams. This is partially why all recent efforts at ‘mid term fiscal policy’ or whatever fancy term one wishes to call it have failed.

    One can diddle with tax calculations, increase or decrease, but neither has any benefit if those responsible for paying or remitting do not do so. Cost overruns will similarly kill any revenue accuracy. MANAGING means control over both ends of the flows.

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  • Hal
    Only because he agreed to refund £363 million to the fund.

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  • I hope part of this review of the revenue and expenditure of the government includes chopping repeat chopping all the extra Ministers and parliamentary secretaries and all the hangers on like Guyson Mayers who are all about eating a food and doing studies that make no difference to growing the economy.

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  • He returned the money to the BHS pension. But the FACT is that he has not been charged with any criminal offence, or even interviewed under caution. Maxell, on the other hand, did commit criminal offences and died suspiciously of suicide before he was charged.
    Of course, people may have political opinions, but we must b careful not to mislead.

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  • I have repeatedly said Glynn Murray might think himself a journalist and a former minister but he is no moderator,just a pussy of talk shows.He has a serious disability in reading and speaking.Stammers too much and confuses the listener.He is piss poor in his judgements and full of digested food seeking to escape.Brain affected by that condition.Another poor moderator is the new reporter on the block one Santa Price.What a disaster.Speaking English is clearly not his comfort zone.Same as Stetson Babb.Words drowning in water….saliva that is.

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  • Sunshine Sunny Shine

    David, you know that Barbados is into the practice of padding lies and protecting truths. That is why by Murray’s reluctance, it paints a very familiar picture of what we can expect from the opposition party when they are nol longer opposition but government. And, the thing is, the situation for which he sought to censor is already in the public’s domain. Mia’s retention of this cesspool lot is one of the reasons why so many are dillusion with this party. They arrogance, which eventually morphs into a display of ignorance, knows no bounds. Things will change under the Bees, but rransparency and accountability will remain elusive.

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  • @SSS

    Isn’t Murray an Arthur sympathizer?

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  • Hal
    You are of the same cloth as Stuart and all those who say Cariington is not a crook because he was not found guilty of thiefing the old guy’s money.The judge ordered him to pay back the man money years after it should have been paid.Black goat,white monkey.Same animal.

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  • @David April 22, 2017 at 8:00 AM #

    Glyne was senior to me at Combermere and like you I have nothing against him. However, I noticed he has developed the habit of constantly interrupting callers he doesn’t seem to favor, callers whose opinions does’t mesh with his, and especially callers who are critical of former P.M. Owen Arthur.

    Like

  • @Report April 22, 2017 at 8:17 AM

    Services will be reduced, debt still goes up and also taxes, especially import taxes (see FX committee).

    In essence, more austerity and no economic growth. The chances for recovery are 0 %.

    Like

  • Gabriel,
    I know it is a bit difficult to understand. I do not know Carrington so cannot say if he is a crook or not. What I have said is that Mr Green has not been charged with any criminal offence nor has he been interviewed under caution. Where does Carrington come in here? Stick to the facts, opinion are cheap. Mr Green is still free to visit Barbados at Xmas. Maxwell is dead, of suspected suicide.
    I will give you a basic lesson in pensions: employers are not the managers of occupational pension funds, that is the role of the trustees.
    So, employers should not be able to put their hands in the pensions till. Employers sponsor the pensions; what happens is that the Tories introduced contribution holidays which allowed the scheme sponsors to stop paying for long periods (Barclays bank, National Grid, et al).
    The faults are two-pronged: first, reverse the contribution holidays, making the sponsors contribute every month; and more important, the accountancy decision of putting pension shortfalls on the sponsor firms books led directly to the firm financial difficulties.
    The result was that some firms, for example the old British Airways, is a pension fund which owns an airline since the pension deficit was bigger than the capitalisation of the airline.
    The actuaries and consultants in the forum will explain better than I.

    Like

  • David

    You must not be so monolithic.

    For you will find all kinds complexities, sub-forces, contradictions and so on within any formation.

    The Ford Foundation gives a lot of money to charities. It even funds titularly left-wing movements like ‘Occupy’ but they are one of the founders of this project to impoverish the people through the consolidation of wealth.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    Innis and company are constantly sucking up to the business class. I cannot understand why we never ask these business people what they do with their profits. The way they whine , one would believe that they are all losing money and have not earned a penny’s profit since opening their doors. Now the stupid political class is going to take advice on how to turn around the economy from them , when in fact they could not turn around their OWN businesses to adapt to the changing global economy or indeed local economy.
    The business community is talking like the IMF: slash all services to the poor; reduce the number of public servants and they needed a whole day to tell the government that!
    What are they going to do with the money they are sitting on? What is their national and social responsibility? Where is their plan to boost exports? How are they going to use technology to improve their businesses? What new training programs they have to bring their workers up to speed? What plans they have to assist in reducing unemployment?
    They are as hopeless as the BLPDLP.

    Like

  • Barbados was a manufacturing country for close to 400 years.Towards the end of that quadrennial the country went to buy and sell.Buy cheap,sell dear…..any and everything including reputations.

    Like

  • Has the official Opposition got a view on the future of the NIS? Their silence is deafening.

    Like

  • @Hal

    Concerns have been expressed about misuse of NIS funds for years. It straddles both administrations.

    https://www.pressreader.com/barbados/daily-nation-barbados/20120328/281784216056429

    Like

  • I know, but under the dynamic, future-looking, perceptive, highly informed economist Owen Arthur. Surely the current leadership has views of its on. Do they have views on any social issues?

    Like

  • @Hal

    Do a google using Dwight Sutherland who has attempted to raise the matter.

    Like

  • Voters must not allowed the gross incompetence of the DLP to give the Opposition a shoo in. They mu be made to fight for every vote. If the bogus political scientists who advise them are telling them not to say anything, then voters should show them.

    Like

  • BOTH political parties have messed with the NIS fund. The lack of up to date financials spawns to the BLP stewardship. We really need the public to get clued in, it is why we are so disappointed at Glyne Murray.

    Like

  • David,
    There is a screw up theory of history. Our politicians are not as bright as they think they are and the senior civil servants are generalists. We are sinking in a swamp of ignorance.

    Like

  • @Walter Blackman

    Where are you?

    Like

  • Sunshine Sunny Shine

    David

    Yes he is. Yet Mottley keeps these rags for reasons that is only tarnishing the image of the party even further. Instead of ridding herself of these dead weight she is prolonging the agony of the BLP’s dwindling image with people many Barbadians now are only in it for what they can get out of it.

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    The political scientists, whatever that is, are just as dumb as the politicians/government ministers and lackey in nature as are the yardfowls.

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    Yeah..Walter Blackman, the new yellow.

    And an actuary to boot, with years under his belt in the concŕete jungles of the US corporate environs, ño less.

    Piece….where are you and what did ya Dougla girlfriend do to you, shè and Badlucky Trottie.

    Like

  • I heard the exchange on Brasstacks, and I couldnt believe how Glyne Murray was treating and behaving towards that issue and that gentleman.

    Like

  • NIS reserves depleted in 2037? Positive news! I thought it is already depleted after government and COW use NIS as their personal ATM.

    Like

  • Bernard Codrington

    @ David @ 5:48AM

    @ Bushie @ 6 : 18 AM

    Bernard knows the batsmen and the game. Hal would have clued you in. Management and the BOD of NIS should see themselves as Trustees of the NIS Fund. They owe a fiduciary responsibility to the contributors to the fund.

    You may also note that high yielding investments are scarce, many of the investment vehicles are also high risk.

    There may also be conflicting ideologies as to whether the NIS contribution is just another tax. So David a lot of things are not so obvious. One needs to ask , “What do they mean ? What is the true story?”

    Like

  • Speaking of…….What is the true story?”

    https://www.barbadostoday.bb/2017/04/22/broken-trust-2/

    Like

  • Note that BU has stated this issue of the central bank removing the minimum interest rate was orchestrated. Good to read Straughn has agreed with BU and Wild Coot.

    Like

  • @Bernard

    The yield of the fund can also be protected by avoiding wastage like the 60 million USD handed to Four Seasons. And why the hell did Tony Marshall sell EMERA’s shares if it is we are discussing yield?

    Also tell us who are the members of the BOD and their qualifications.

    Like

  • If the scheme will be depleted within 20 years, and the state retirement age is going up to 67, what is going to happen to all those aged under 47? And with a hybrid at as you go system, high unemployment, a massive current account deficit and with the Social Partnership apparently recommending that the state should jettison the social network, the NIS is even worse off than anyone has said.
    The elephant in the room is that with increases in longevity, and the pending high cost of long term care, wow! Get out of this one, Mr Stuart.

    Like

  • @Hal

    Didn’t Bernard tell us that we always have the option to raise the pensionable age? The 2014 Actuarial Review should make interesting reading.

    Like

  • David,
    When Bismarck first introduced pensions in the 1870s, the idea was that you will either die before claiming, or within two years. That was the case in in up until the 1960s, but with advances in medical sciences, better nutrition, etc, people are living on average much longer.. So, if someone enters the job market in their mid 20s, after university, and work uo to 67, 42 years of contributions, and live for a further 20 years, that would put a strain on the system.
    In Britain it is even worse: leave university at 25, 30 years contributions, bringing you to age 55, with the state retirement age at 67, it means Brits are now making 22 years of contributions with no personal benefits.

    Like

  • We need to bring pension plan of the MPs in scope as well. It is the fair thing to do.

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    http://bit.ly/2p7D2LG

    The Caribbean because of weak governments, particularly in Barbados, will as usual, be left in the dust their people kept in limbo 30-40 years behind…..as usual.

    Like

  • More babies.

    More maternity leave for the young women who are bearing and rearing our next work force.

    Like

  • Well Well & Consequences Observing Blogger

    Simple…maternity leave needs to be extended, with pay, at least six months….ya noticed they are trying to get rid of workers who are just above minimum wage, NYC is now offering taxpayer funded “free” college tuition….there will be a workforce reset, a more educated, better salaried workforce. .with the jobs to match….beat up the US like I do all I want…but ya cannot beat them at forward, proactive thinking.

    In the meantime on island time.., Fruendel and his dimwitted Frauds are rolling back gains, turning the workforce backward and uneducated to create a substandard, unliveable salary scale for those who cannot afford university tuition.

    The guillotine is quite applicable.

    Like

  • The private sector provides the taxes that run the country.Unless the government wants to run the economy like Castro,Chavez,Maduro and such like,the private sector in our capitalist system it’s the private sector.Therefore the ps should have a say in how their taxes are spent.
    Govt is a facilitator,nothing more,nothing less.

    Like

  • David April 22, 2017 at 2:10 AM #

    “BU was very disappointment to listen to Murray’s reaction to Harewood.”

    @ David

    I may have misinterpreted you comments, but it isn’t fair to blame VOB for Murray’s reaction to the caller.

    He obviously has an agenda, which seems to be elevating Owen Arthur and to some extent, Denis Kellman, while trying to ridicule certain callers.

    Like

  • @Artax

    I thought that I was the only one who noticed Murray’s agenda.

    Were you away when he had OSA on for nearly an hour? And to what end? For Freundel and his cabinet to make fun and insult OSA at the end of the day?

    Like

  • @Artax

    The talk show is controlled by the producer who ia an employee of the station and NOT the moderator.

    Like

  • Yes, David but Murray controls the conversation……..

    Have you ever heard him how he carries on the Statsman but would allow Affa and the Pollman to talk the same nonsense every week…….the Pollman went on for about 15 minutes one day saying absolutely nothing of consequence and I was stunned when he ask him….it that all for now, do you have anything else to say?

    …………yet Statsman who brings facts is roughed up by Murray case in point the day Statsman dared to talk about Murray’s idol and god, OSA and the advisory post he was to get. He eventually apologised to the listening public for his behaviour but not to Statsman.

    Murray needs to be fair and stop interrupting callers, he needs to have a dialogue but give the callers time to make thir point instead of butting in and stammering………..his programmes are boring and I tend not to listen but follow the chat whose chatters are not so kind to him.

    Murray’s problem is that OSA hates Mia so he would never entertain any discussion favourable to the BLP……………a party that made him……..according to Wesley!

    Like

  • The DLP sycophant from Strakers Tenantry,Arthur,Wesley,the BLP sycophant whose handle I don’t know but who thinks it’s the best thing since sliced bread,they all should be banned from VOB.They can call CBC,I dont ever listen to CBC.

    Like

  • I am AWARE that: “The talk show is controlled by the producer who an employee of the station and NOT the moderator.”

    However, judging from the way some callers are treated, it is obvious that the moderator may “signal” the producer to “cut” that caller or intervene to control the discussion.

    Case in point, Murray usually treats certain callers in a particular manner, especially those he thinks are supporters of Mia Mottley. The caller known as “Stats Man” reminded listeners of a statement he alleged Murray made in 2014, when Owen Arthur was still a member of the BLP. He told Murray that his position has changed since OSA left the BLP and has now become defensive of the DLP. Murray muttered something and quickly ended the conversation.

    Was that action imitated by the producer?

    Like

  • *** Was that action initiated by the producer?

    Like

  • Agree with you but all your example highlights is a producer who is not doing their job well. In the case of Harewood the producer should have whispered in the headphones let hm make his point. Note when Anti America calls Denis Johnson says nothing because the producer allows him to speak even though Johnson prefers not to for whatever reason.

    Like

  • @ David
    As Bushie said from the VERY beginning, Murray is a square peg in the wrong hole. He is the very WORSE choice as a moderator.
    His voice, temperament, attitude, political bias, stuttering, mumbling and hesitant speech ALL shout that he is a bad fit….
    Who ever INSISTS that he be kept in that role is clearly trying to make someone else look good in comparison.

    It is like the old trick that HR managers play to get around people like Caswell…
    In order to give a job to your mediocre friend or family member, you shortlist six other ‘applicants’, each of whom is so much worse, … that your ‘planned selectee’ is easily the ‘best candidate’.
    Murray is obviously there to make Peter of the “poles’ look like a top pick… 🙂

    You know that DJ is one of Bushie’s favourites, but his approach to Mr. Anti American is downright CHILDISH. Mr. AA is a top notch call-in contributor who brings creative, fresh perspectives. Why these moderators feel that THEY must agree with, or even understand, a particular perspective in order to entertain a caller …is beyond the bushman….

    Perhaps the whole point is that the show is targeted for low-rate brass bowls with predictable positions – mostly on parochial politics….

    Like most things in Barbados…. it is, and has been, doomed to mediocrity.

    Like

  • When the history of the 20th century is written,it should be recorded that JMGM ‘Tom’ Adams bestrode the political landscape of Barbados like a colossus despite his shortlived oversight.His regional and international reputation outshone most if not all Barbados offered.One at ease in perpetuum,the epitome of an engaging personality.

    Like

  • @ David

    What are your thoughts on creating duty free zones and increasing departure, cruise visitor head taxes and import taxes, as recommended by the Foreign Exchange Working Group of the Social Partnership?

    Like

  • @Artax

    Have no problem with increasing departure tax NOT arriving.

    Given the fact we need to attract businesses and increase exports Barbados should have established Free Zones a long time ago.

    On Sun, Apr 23, 2017 at 2:09 PM, Barbados Underground wrote:

    >

    Like

  • @ David

    Okay.

    But as it relates to the duty free zones, since many of the items to be sold duty free will be obviously imported, how would creating duty free zones generate any significant amounts of additional foreign exchange?

    If certain locations in the island are set aside as duty free zones where US$ for example, is used to buy the items, this essentially creates a “dollarization” of those zones.

    Like

  • @Artax

    Free Zone with this definition:

    Free zones generally fall into one of four categories: free trade zones, export processing zones, special economic zones, or industrial zones. Free trade zones, typically located near seaports or airports, mainly offer exemptions from national import and export duties on goods that are re-exported. Local services gain, though there is little, if any, value added to the goods traded. Export processing zones go a step further by focusing on exports with a significant value added, rather than only on re-exports. Special economic zones apply a multisectoral development approach and focus on both domestic and foreign markets. They offer an array of incentives including infrastructure, tax and custom exemptions, and simpler administrative procedures. Industrial zones are targeted at specific economic activities, say media or textiles, with infrastructure adapted accordingly. – See more at: http://oecdobserver.org/news/archivestory.php/aid/3101/Free_zones:_Benefits_and_costs.html#sthash.yzy1KcAD.dpuf

    Like

  • It seems as though Marla Dukharan made similar observations, and her views and analysis were explicit, as outlined in “Barbados Budget & Outlook 2017”

    “Regarding duty-free zones, the Minister spoke of the establishment of a committee to research and possibly implement various duty-free zones to encourage more shopping domestically, less travel for shopping abroad, and to encourage more inflows of US dollars. While this measure might encourage some of the USD being held informally or ‘under the mattress’ in Barbados, to be spent by domestic consumers in the duty-free zones, I have a bit of concern that this is unlikely to generate meaningful additional foreign exchange inflows into Barbados, because most of the goods that would be sold on a duty-free basis in Barbados to foreigners and locals would be imported anyway.”

    “The second thing about this measure is the earmarking of certain zones where you can shop on a duty-free basis but only in hard currency – which to me means that you are, in effect, dollarizing certain zones in your country, and I am not sure I understand how that is going to work, in practice. This approach seems somewhat complicated to me, and I actually think that if your aim is to encourage higher net inflows of USD, -it might be easier to just relax some foreign exchange restrictions, allowing USD deposits for example, or to just completely dollarize, or perhaps to even devalue the currency. But the latter is not a policy option that the Barbados authorities are prepared to entertain.”

    Like

  • @Artax

    Aren’t they seeking to soak up USD from the market? Foreign dolalrs are being spent informally anyway to transact locally.

    Like

  • I was wondering how long it would take for Team BU to get around to Mr Murray. Without doubt he must have been a good journalist when he practiced the craft and would probably still be master of the written word BUT broadcasting is not his forte. This is no reflection on him personally, he just does not make the cut, with or without prejudices. Someone also mentioned Mr Babb as an unsuitable voice for radio and with that observation I totally agree. One sometimes wonders what is the selection criteria at our media houses for on-air talent – audio and video. Are our standards so low that all one is required to do is sit behind a mike or in front of a camera and let loose? Tone of voice, modulation, fluency, pronunciation, visual impact all seem to be non-existent in the selection process….and I haven’t even broached the main topic under discussion yet.

    Like

  • @ FearPlay
    You are correct.
    There are no standards, mediocrity is king, and shiite rules the airways.

    The VERY worse are the so-called DJs…. these, generally, represent the crudest, lowest, most class-less, currish, and apparently minimally educated among us….. and the music that they generally choose to promote displays a desire to reach UPWARDS towards the gutter.

    The News people are pathetic…. led by Stetson…. whose forte is in interviewing a neighbour who ‘was not a witness’; was ‘not at home’; barely knows the victim …. but goes on at length during the news brief… about what they brought for dinner two weeks ago….

    Not to blame Starcom, because Bushie has long established that OCM is a foreign-owned vehicle that has been purchased as a mechanism for the destruction of Barbados in the interest of some ‘One Caribbean’ entity.

    Bushie is still trying to assess their latest mystery move….
    …bringing Maurice Norville to do radio duties….

    Lotta shiite!!
    This man is smooth, cultured, a pleasure to listen to…., uplifting and classy.
    All it does is highlight even more, the crassness of the other Dog Jobby (DJs)…
    Why would they do that??!!

    Perhaps it is a new and dastardly phase of our subjugation by our new Tricki masters…
    Who knows…???!!

    Like

  • IT IS QUITE A SHAME THAT VOB EMPLOYEES (AND A FREELANCE MODERATOR) WHO HAVE PERSONAL ISSUES WITH GLYNE ARE TAKING TO THIS FORUM TO ‘CYBER-LY’ ATTACK HIS GOOD AND UPSTANDING CHARACTER!

    #NONAMENOBLAME

    Like

  • @Bush Tea April 23, 2017 at 7:51 AM ” Mr. Anti American is downright CHILDISH. Mr. AA is a top notch call-in contributor who brings creative, fresh perspectives. ”

    No he isn;t.

    He is more like Mr. Predictable.

    Same old, same old,same old.

    Like

  • @Gabriel April 23, 2017 at 7:52 AM “When the history of the 20th century is written,it should be recorded that JMGM ‘Tom’ Adams bestrode the political landscape of Barbados like a colossus”

    The bell ring eva since.

    Ya can go home from worshiping Tom now.

    Cuh dear. The man has been dead, dead, dead for a few generations now.

    Like

  • For those who missed the exchange the audio is updated to the blog.

    Like

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