The Draft Estimates 2013-14 and related documents are available for public comment.
Hon. Chris Sinckler will move the Second Reading of the Appropriation Bill, 2013 on Monday 25th of March 2013.
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Approved Estimates 2012-2013 (for reference)
The Estimates Debate 2013-2014
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240 responses to “The Estimates Debate 2013-2014”
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Dont have the time to read through fully right now but are these done on a cash or accrual basis?
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The Financial Stability Report 2012 was issued by the Central Bank today (15 March 2013)
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for clarity I mean the revenue side on the previous year.
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The government shifted to the accrual system around 2008(?).
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…with all the austerity still a billion dollar deficit. Going nowhere fast.
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ok thanks David
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Chocolate is chocolate
Shit is Shit
When the Government Gonna recognise IT?? -
Here is an extract from the Financial Stability Report, right in the solar plexus!
Deposits in foreign currency have declined consistently since 2007 from $1.7 billion to $320 million at September 2012, declining 40 percent since the end of 2011. While the decline was initially due to the global financial crisis, the fall-off of the past three years reflects the transfer of business from the domestic financial system to other locally licensed international financial institutions. Additionally, most of these foreign currency deposits are classified as demand, with just over half of the total being held by business firms.
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David; Thanks for this thread. The documents should be excellent references for the discussion that is sure to follow. fyi The second and third links are broken.
Could you locate and add the Auditor General’s report?
Just one comment on the Financial Stability report. I wonder what subliminal messages are being sent by the cover graphic. That graphic clearly represents serious storm clouds rolling in. Why would the Central Bank and the FSC approve such a graphic on a stability report that suggests on casual reading that things are reasonably stable?
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@Checkit-Out
Thanks, the links should be fine now.
Please note the AG Report was laid in parliament but not yet updated to their website.
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@ David:
After taking a look through the Estimates a bit of concern or call for further elucidation is merited at this stage. The quality of management, accounting and reporting of this country’s public finances should come under greater scrutiny because it presently needs something to be desired.
For example, why are the actual figures for 2011-12 not presented? Are figures that should have been ready since June 2012 not finalized or available to date?
Do the Revised Estimates for 2012-13 reflect actual figures for the first 9 months of the fiscal year adjusted to include the last quarter projections?Now let us take a closer look at a few programme areas in order to get further clarification from the experts on this blog:
The new St. John Polyclinic: an integral section of a social services facility to be styled the David Thompson Memorial Complex or something along that line.
Could anyone point us to a sub-programme that covers the operational (including emoluments) costs for this new polyclinic? Where under the Ministry of health can this facility that should have been opened and functioning since December 2012 be located as can be seen for the other polyclinics? What about the capital expenditure required to “equip or fit-out” this facility to make it fully functional? Is this expenditure provided for elsewhere?
Taking a recent look at this facility it appears this project still has sometime to go before it can be considered fit for purpose.
There is a small provision under the MoH sub-programme 0366 but the amounts here are so small ($267, 245) as to make one conclude it can only apply to the existing small out-patient facility in Gall Hill.The subsidy provided for the Transport Board (TB) can only be described as a slap in the face of that poor old lady on the bus who might just find herself holding the dirty end of the laughing stick.
How can $20 million be enough to “subsidize” the TB in order to ensure an efficiently run service when- at the current year’s level- a subsidy in excess of $65 million is required?
What savings can be had in a year to account for such a drastic cut in demand for financial help? Not even a transfer of the $1/2 million for capital works to operational sectors can close such a gap between revenues and expenditures at the TB.What about this administration’s flagship of propaganda for economic renewal, restructuring and empowerment of the poor and unemployed, Agriculture?
Can you point out where the government is making provision for the funding of the BADMC and its related operating agencies?Why haven’t the resources allocated to the sub-programme “Land for the Landless” never been effectively utilized? Has money ever been spent in this area and where is it recorded for performance evaluation and programme effectiveness?
There are other areas of major concern. The one that clearly comes to mind is the Central Revenue Authority and its overarching bureaucratic duplication. But this will be the topic of another contribution along with the costly uncoordinated HIV/AIDS sub-programmes that crisscross in a most unmanageable way the entire public sector.
Maybe you have something to add to point me in the right direction and discredit my observations. Over to you for the time being!
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@Miller
Have not had a chance to scan the 700 page monster but if we are to find 75 million don’t you expect there to be cuts?
The point was made before, we will have to wait until the debate to invoke meaning to the numbers i.e. if it is a robust process of appropriation which has been gone through or whether same old same old.
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@ David | March 16, 2013 at 8:40 AM |
How can there be meaningful cuts when projected expenditure has increased when compared to the previous year? What is also obvious is that there has been some omission (should we say deferment) of expenditure like the St. John Polyclinic to make things look a bit more palatable.
I am not against cuts. As a matter of fact I am all for cuts. But not in important areas such as agriculture unless we just talking through our rare ends when it comes to this sector of the economy.
What the first review of the Estimates reveals is the principle of the “same old same old” at work. Loads of duplication exist indicative of territorial fighting and protection of empire.
You can expect that areas with “weak” ministers or programmes with little vote catching pork barrel appeal to feel the brunt of future necessary cut backs during the year when revenues expectations are not realized.The TB is no longer relevant. It has served its electoral purposes and can now be put back in the toy box. The new Minister can always claim he needs to have an in-depth study conducted to find out how to move forward in the right direction.
So too has Agriculture been sidelined. We shall see how Dr. D defends his territory now that he is totally committed to it. He has a long and protracted fight on his hand with the MoF determined to pull out all the teeth from the Doctor’s political mouth.
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My quick perusal suggests that there have been no real increases in discretionary expenditure. The increases in expenditure are largely due to rising debt service, both interest expense and principal repayments.
It seems that the time will soon come for some tough decisions.
I applaud the attempt to hold jobs but not sure how much longer this can continue.
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One of the things I do know is that the estimates includes a lot of “re-votes” where ministries have projects that are never really implemented. There are also posts that are never filled. These tend to overstate actual expenditure. On the other hand we also seem to have this policy of underfunding things like and TB and uwi in the estimates and then going for supplementals.
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Observer; Thanks for the comments.
As you are one who normally and demonstrably seems to speak seldom but always for the TopMan himself, the warning and message is clear. Your last two sentences speak volumes. They bear highlighting and repetition:- “It seems that the time will soon come for some tough decisions. I applaud the attempt to hold jobs but not sure how much longer this can continue.” </B -
you giving me very much influence and access.
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The point about the rising debt burden and how it will continue to compromise government’s ability to fund Capital projects for example has been well ventilated on this blog and elsewhere.
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Now if only the leaders knew what to do about the debt burden, that would indeed be a coup.
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my persual points to around 300 ml of principal repayments. this figure makes a big difference to the estimates and these principal repayments could be for loans 10, 15, 20, 25 or even 30 years ago. I could not tell from the estimates but I do know that most government bonds have at least a ten year maturity.
This is really not a partisan issue. hopefully we can have a sober debate on ways to grow the economy within the limited resources.
boosting productivity is clearly a crucial issue.
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Increasing productivity is always an objective which must remain on the table but it will not occur because Minister Inniss et al reads a flowerery speech before a gathering. There is a culture which controls how we produce as a people which has to change. Regrettably it will not change by talk alone, discrete steps must be introduced to managed the culture change which is a prerequisite to improve productivity.
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true. I am inclined to think that productivity is a key responsibility of management. have we had enough focus on management practices and the role of unions as they relate to productivity?
Is the level of legal fees and pace of legal work a major or minor drag on productivity? If it is a major drag how do we address it?
I think advertising could get a little boost if ads for medical and legal services were allowed.
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What do you do when the leaders are not even trying to affect change………..it is causing indefinite stagnation with ever rising debt costs and an astronomically rising food import bill. The recent wake up call politicians had was obviously not enough to jar them into 21st century realities.
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Forget the Unions, it is the lack of leadership which has been unsuccessful in selling to the PEOPLE what is required for success. Remember that Union membership is comprised of the PEOPLE.
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@ Observer | March 16, 2013 at 9:56 AM |
“my persual points to around 300 ml of principal repayments. this figure makes a big difference to the estimates and these principal repayments could be for loans 10, 15, 20, 25 or even 30 years ago.”Your argument is a bogus one. How can loans or debt instruments of 10 years or over account for a rise in interest expense in the current or future years. Any rise in interest expense must be due to either an increase in the interest rates on these very old debts or as a result of taking on more debts in the last year or two. And the latter sounds more like it
Interest expense tends to reduce as loan principals are repaid unless they are ‘balloon’ or ‘bullet’ in character or profile.You should note this is not a political partisan response but a commonsense response infused with some basic knowledge.
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Hi all
Been busy with family duties so forgive my periodic absence. Catching a peep here and there when I can though.Thanks for the links David. The Audiotr General’s report continues the norm for successive governments. Wastage, lack of transparency and nothing done about it.
Pointed questions Miller. The estimates seem to shout more by what they do NOT contain rather than what they do.
Will have to compare with t he MTFS “one path” document and see if we’re doing what we say.
@check it out
As always, checking out the important points. Will be interesting to hear the arguments regarding the increasing difference, where the cuts will come frorm and if/how we can stop forex from leaking.Will comment more after a more thorough look.
Observing
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the debt payments includes both interest and principal repayments. I commented on the principal repayments. correct me if i am wrong, but my interpretation of principal repayment is that the bond has now matured and the principal is now due. my understanding is that unlike say our car loans and mortgages where our payments include some interest and some principal, with most bonds you pay interest over the life of the bond and the principal is due on maturity. Hence my comment about the principal repayments.
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you have 577 ml of amortization (principal repayments according to my understanding) and 608 of interest payments
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@observer
Close in name and close in thought. Like miller though I’d. Have to be shown how repayment increases led to the expenditure growth.@david
I’ll ask as I have always asked. Will the real leaders please stand up?@all
Does real productivity in the public service exist? Does real productivity exist in Barbados? A look at public secot reform over ten years ago and the fruit is has borne (or allowed to drop off the tree) is depressing. Observer correctly said that there are a lot of projects which are never implemented. We still take too long to do the beneficial things and are happy to talk for 3-4 days in the august chamber, only to come out and continue. More of the same.RE, agriculture, entrepreneurship and ICT are the “buzz words” that are supposed to save us. Where is the legislative, finanical and policy based shifts to these areas? Where is the urgency since holding strain still loses us forex? What will we do since almost all our saving graces are long term?
We are operating in static mode while living in a dynamic environment. We’ll eventually have to pay the literal and figurative price
Just observing
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@ Observer | March 16, 2013 at 10:24 AM |
Agree!
But it is precisely for that reason of being faced with a large principal repayment at the end of the life of the bond that annual appropriations to a sinking fund make proper public accounting sense and ought to be done by the technocrats despite what politicians would like to show to the gullible and mostly ignorant public when it comes to matters of public finance.
I might be wrong but it seems as if much of the borrowing over the last 3 years to fund government’s expenditure because of the economic and fiscal difficulties was of a short-term nature, more of an overdraft in repayment profile. But this would require further analysis.
It would be interesting to compare the debt profile of say 2009 to that of 2012. Now that would give us a more “informed” idea of our current and future repayment commitments- both interest and principal.
Why don’t we have actual figures for the 2011-12 fiscal or financial year? -
@Observing(…) and Observer
The issue of how our leadership uses communication to inspire confidence and shed light where there is darkness for ordinary people and captains of industry alike cannot be underscored enough. It is no secret BU has been highly critical of PM Stuart because of his unwillingness to robustly communicate to the PEOPLE. His cliche response given as an excuse that he speaks when he has something to say is simplistic – if he is as well read as we are told he is then he is vividly aware how past leaders have used the power of speech to inspire nations. This is especially so in periods of crises.
This week we learned that Grenada has been downgraded to SD (Selected Default). It will join Jamaica and a couple countries in the region who will have to restructure its public debt. How we manage public debt in a volatile global economy is serious business.
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but the expenditures on debt including interest and principal repayments are an integral part of the expenditures in the estimates. we have 1.19bl of debt service broken down between interest, amortization (principal payments) and expenses of loans (which is a tiny amount.) debt amortization was 416ml last year it is now 578ml, interest was 565ml its now 608.
not sure what i am missing. help muh out please. I am learning this thing.
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it would be useful to get the maturity structure of the debt.
I mean statutory expenses are down by 5ml, capital expenditure up by 71ml, operating expenses are down by about 46ml, but debt service is up by about 205 -
And given that there is always the possibility of a downgrade,as evidenced by the Moodys and S&P downgrades, a clause is included to account for an upward adjustment of the interest rate for obvious reasons
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David wrote “This week we learned that Grenada has been downgraded to SD (Selected Default). It will join Jamaica and a couple countries in the region who will have to restructure its public debt. How we manage public debt in a volatile global economy is serious business.”
I think the PM is struggling with the dishonesty required when you are a leader.
He should tell the people the truth but it must be twisted so as to create a sense of calm.
All the world leaders bend and twist the truth so that people would not panic,withdraw their cash from banks or “riot”.The time is coming soon when the PM and the Governor of the Central Bank will be forced to tell the twisted truth about the trap Barbados finds itself in.
The Trap.Continuous consumer borrowing and spending to support growth in the economy.
If people slow down spending workers in the service industry will lose jobs thereby creating more unemployment.I hope the really bright people on BU will continue to suggest real solutions to the problems facing Barbados.
My concern is that new ideas take time to develop and Barbados needs a quick fix.
Bushie? Miller? GP? David? can you help? -
@Hants
The solution is not only be about quick fixes. There is a spiritual element which our leaders must be able to enjoin the majority of Barbadians to adopt. We must find a way to coelese(rally) behind the cause (road map). It will not happen by implementing cold discrete economic policies.
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@ Observer
Skipper, you could “back back” all you like…..um is obvious that you understand this economics thing better than most…including the big-up GURUs. (Not Mascoll, even Bushie understand um better than he… 🙂 )…so answer this question for the Bushman please….
Bushie just heard that China’s National debt is in the order of 200% GDP. (CNN story on Chinese divorce trends to beat a new tax).
Japan also has one of the highest national debts.
The USA has an astronomical national debt.
The EU is in serious debt crisis
Jamaica owe everybody
Grenada just decide to default a loan payment
Barbados got a massive national debt…Observer, PLEASE explain to Bushie….
Who the ass it is that all these people owe….?
Who um is that got all this surplus?
…you feel um is COW?Um is the illuminati? ….the Drug Cartels?
…or um is them sheiks and oil barons?Something seems not to add up….
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@ David
“The solution is not only be about quick fixes. There is a spiritual element…..”
*************
Go to the top of the class. -
David wrote “There is a spiritual element…..”
But we have no real spiritual leaders. Now what?
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@Hants
It is there but it has been hidden (numbed) by a consumption lifestyle which has intoxicated all of us through the ages. In our case it hard to predict how this will turn out but sometimes all it takes is for an event or events to occur to trigger the behaviours we are looking for.
Are we there yet?
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Miller
The MoF is determined to pull every tooth from the political mouth of Dr Estwick?
That is what you there telling yourself? The Minister of Finance is in the jaws of death and ain’t even smart enough to know it. That Ministry is well on the way to hanging him and all the while the PM and Estwick sitting, watching and laughing as the already dimmed lights of his political career are snuffed out, remember ” heads will roll”
The best well to make a man take dose of political poison is for someone else to pretend to want it. Sinckler rush a grab back up the MoF and now that he about to swing, he cursing people.
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Are we there yet?
David I think the events unfolding suggest that we are in deep trouble.The consumption lifestyle is will be forced to change as forex diminishes.
I noticed that Barbados is experiencing a drought.Let us hope it rains soon.
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David;
You asked, in relation to a question re. the spiritual side of this problem we, and most other countries are now in, Are we there yet?I don’t think we are quite there, but we are getting close.
How many of us, besides Millertheannunaki, realise that there has been an unprecedented incidence of near misses by a number of asteroids that eluded the routine NEAR scans along with appearances of large Comets over the past month or so that are apparently not emanating from the Oort cloud, with one comet that seems to have Mars in its direct sights for a massive hit or a very near but still chaotic miss in October next year? (The Shoemaker-Levy comet that hit Jupiter about 10 years ago showed what the effects might be of a direct hit by a massive comet)
These matters that may sound frivolous and worthy of commital to Jenkins, should not be excluded from the equations and discussions on what can be done to help Barbados come out of an apparent downward economic spiral. It might be illuminating to google Velikovsky or Talbot and Thornhill, or the Electric Universe for some insight into what these new apparitions from space might presage.
The seemingly intractable problems that we now find ourselves facing in Barbados have been building up for a long time under both administrations but have only thrust themselves onto our individual and collective psyches early in the last administration when significant collapses and the reactions to these in the world economic giants impacted forcibly on us. Solving those problems is impossible without extremely drastic and draconian action which no Government in Barbados will be willing to take. However we can apply some band aids to the sores pending the end times.
I think this is where the results of the last elections must have been inspired by powers above us. A DLP win by 4 or more seats or a BLP one by the same or higher margins might have allowed the winners to fairly comfortably fall back into a “business as usual” mode. The very slim margin by the DLP was karmic in its likely effects and will make sure that the discomfort of that margin along with a recognition of the dire straits we are in will force the parliament into making sensible choices to the benefit of the people more so than the parliamentarians.
The election results provided a real chance for Barbados’ economy to be put on a leaner and meaner trajectory within the next five years if FS and Mia are allowed to work together from opposite ends of the parliamentary benches to craft workable solutions that would allow for the true restructuring of the economy that is necessary for us to survive for what I think might be a relatively short time span before the end times hit all of us.
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Oops! The impact of Shoemaker-Levy comet on Jupiter was, I think 1994, nearer 20 than 10 years ago.
I should also have explained to the perhaps 4 people on this blog who might be interested in Cataclysms and Electric Universe theories, that there is mounting evidence that Earth seems to be now barrelling through a region of space where it is more susceptible than normal to meteor and cometary strikes and that it is possible that earlier traverses of this region appear to have led to mass extinctions, including of the dinosaurs, in the distant past and in the last 5000 years or so to periodic massive loss of life, epidemics, pestilence, etc. resulting from massive impacts by comets or comet fragments.
Think Black Death; the biblical plagues in Egypt; etc. etc.
Some scientists seem to be taking this seriously.
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Another thing about the graphs in the Financial Stability Report which is worth a little observation:
The loans have been flat, their is liquidity BUT the investments holding by banks shows a little rise but not commensurate with the liquidity in the market. It makes you go hmmm.
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@Checkit-Out
Post a link.
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@check it out
Existence is cyclic.What goes around, comes around
There is nothing new under the sun
Every beginning must have an end
Nothing lasts foreverWords of dread to some, of comfort to others
Just observing
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David; I presume you mean a link to my babbling above about catastrophism.
There is an enormous literature about that subject. The best popular book I have read on the subject is “The apocalypse: Comets, asteroids and cyclical catastrophes by Laura Knight-Jadczyk”. Its available as a Kindle ebook on amazon.com. There are also numerous scientific papers on the subject by several authors. The most noteworthy of whom are Victor Clube and Bill Napier; Google them. The Electric Universe also has several scientific papers, most noteworthy are perhaps those by Talbot and Thornhill on the Electric Universe that posits that electricity is the most important force in the Universe, that there has been no big bang, etc. etc. Of course everyone knows about Immanuel Velikovsky the author of Worlds in collision that started the whole catastrophism movement but which has been refined since then by primarily astroscientists in the UK.
If you google catastrophism, electric universe, comets, comet 2012, comet C/2013-A1 siding spring, cosmic winter etc. you will find many hits.
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@Checkit-Out
Thanks!
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Observing; Words that betoken deep and crystal clear thought as usual. Nice!
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