Submitted by Looking Glass
“Barbados Face Bankruptcy, the prospect of paying for a range of services which are not free…and even ending up with a banana republic…..the Government pushed into a position of bankruptcy with its heavy borrowing.” (Dr’ Estwick; Nation 4/22/06) He was also quoted as saying that the national debt moved from $1bn to $4bn under the BLP and the entire public service debt had reached 110% of GDP. At the time the national debt was more than doubled the amount the government admitted to. But lay not blame on the opposition who had not been privy to or had access to the books.
According to the BLP columnist (Nation 8/18/06) “the IMF has not been pleased with this administration since we asked them to leave Government Headquarters, and since we did not follow their advice….” This at a time when more than half of the Third World debt was owed not to commercial banks but to multilateral organizations. We have long been guilty of default. By 2003 less than $10 million in interest had been paid on a mega debt contracted over 40 years before. Privatization is a form of debt recovery.
Can you imagine telling one who owns you to leave? Maybe the writer had not been privy to the comment or warning “not a ship or plane…” Further he adds that “for them (IMF) to be describing our performance as impressive is a testimony to the economic leadership of this country.” In reality the good mark had been given for following advice and doing as you were told.
The national debt is an open secret debated in democratic countries. The media, scholars and the people discuss and write about it. But in Barbados it seems to be nothing more than an afterthought that may flicker at election time and die. The reason why the Prime Minister faced with the task of salvaging a sinking ship with nothing would keep secret the albatross he inherited has nothing to do with incompetence. He, like his predecessor, remains subject to external ‘guidance.’ The debt-collector calls the shots.
According to the code of Hammurabi, King of Babylon in 2250 BC, if the weatherman flooded the field of a farmer who owed debt and destroyed his grain, or lost his crop due to lack of water, then the farmer did not have to pay interest for that year. Had the farmer been obliged to pay his creditor(s) he would have had to dispose of his animals, land and possessions. A wealthy person would have bought the farmer’s property on the cheap and become richer by exploiting it. The Code prevented the country from becoming more polarized and marginalized. Unfortunately the Code died with Babylon.
No such provision obtains in today’s Babylon, the IMF (the world’s debt collector), the World Bank or related international institutions. The prime purpose is to ensure the debt is serviced— sustainability if you please— which often means diversion of scarce resources from production to debt payment. More than half of the Third World debt is owed to the above institutions.
Re debt service options: Borrowing from non-banks (NIS etc) is like borrowing from one who has nothing. It could invite liquidity and social problems. Either way increased indebtedness is inevitable. In the past debt has been forgiven. In 1990 the USA forgave an Egyptian $7 billion debt incurred in the purchase of US military equipment, but not without serious strings attached. Egypt had to accept the economic and other policies favoured by the IMF. Some countries have defaulted. Argentina for one defaulted on a $1billion World Bank debt in I think 2002. But we who have nothing are in no position to default.
Regarding bank loans the IMF ensures or helps to ensure “that overexposed banks will be repaid…major borrowers will be prevented from destabilizing the system.” And God help you if our loans are short term and come at variable interest rates. Each increase in interest will add to debt and the cost of debt service. More scarce resources will be diverted from production.
Rescheduling means only the postponement of payment for another time (and the interest increases.) It doesn’t mean debt reduction. Whether the debt is owed to institutions like the IMF, World Bank, the IADB or banks, we face strong pressure to divert scarce resources from production to repay multilateral debt. We are not a classified as an impoverished nation so debt relief is out of the question. Creditors favour rescheduling where there is sustainability. To this end creditors assess whether, given certain analyses of economic growth, external trade and the availability of financial resources the debtor country is able to service the debt. By the time the debt is paid you end up paying more than twice the actual loan. Given the nature of the economy Barbados cannot be seen as sustainable. There is no way the current debt (which will increase) can be retired in say twenty years without selling out much more of the country. More debt is inevitable.
Pessimism may save us from the madhouse for a while but optimism doesn’t produce work or retire the debt. When people are unable to feed and clothe their children civil disorder and unrest—which will likely be put down in a hurry with the aid of foreign bodies— cannot be discounted. Perhaps this is the purge needed for the country to be resurrected to the “Sceptred Isle” status again. If so then the question becomes for whom the bell tolls. Given the population dynamics we may be looking at a large black mass sitting on the edge of serfdom.





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