Submitted by The Looking Glass
There is a correlation between Public and Private/personal debt in a society whose mental set permits both lavish consumption and government misuse of borrowed funds, more so where private saving is insufficient to finance government spending (like jails, roundabouts, flyovers (and borrowing to prop up the Treasury) that do nothing but add to the debt. The debt ratios of households and government are at an all time high.
When a regime can no longer effectively underwrite the control and production of the country then you do as you were told. The opportunity to be held hostage increases when too much of the debt is held by foreigners. Thus it is safe to say that in our case debt will retard the independence of the nation and leave us in a state that is “financially imprudent.” As long as part of the debt is covered by borrowing its value will keep on rising, and like long term fiscal policy is not sustainable.
The IMF in 2006 projected debt at 75% of GDP by 2011. The 2008 report is anything but an improvement. According to the report “total debt rose to 95% of GDP or a stall high of 87% if earmarked sinking funds are netted out….A 75% likelihood that medium term debt ratio will exceed current levels…and predicts an average debt ratio of 106% by 2013.” This suggests that, despite the privatization and sale of profitable assets in the last decade, the national debt is one hell of a lot more than was ever openly acknowledged (add in “off-budget” loan guarantees and contingencies to get an idea of the true national debt). Debt stabilisation means nothing more than stabilizing it as a proportion of GDP sufficient to ensure the debt will be serviced not principal reduction.
Debt service leaves very little in the tank. Financial services create a few well paid jobs, a bit of revenue and remain at the mercy of Obama. Any export of services will not compensate for or replace jobs. Foreign investment, however direct, is not in the value-added sector, but mostly in foreign owned property development and comes with minimal benefits. Construction is a largely short term business with a negative multiplier effect. Tourism returns, which for years have been exaggerated, will continue to decline partly because we are still to learn the art of marketing and shrunken competitive advantage.
So just how and from where will we acquire the resources needed to fulfill the promises made to the public like building houses? Or to even compensate for the real or imagined crisis cost? Given the current world financial climate it is unlikely the money required will be available from across the Atlantic. Any help will be just enough to keep the ship from sinking. The $1.5 billion loan being negotiated a while back (I suspect with Trinidad) appears to have fallen through. There remains a dire shortage of barley loaves with which to feed the people. And we can’t print money like America.
For too long our politicians indulged in rhetoric that lacked a transformational view of the country. It is now incumbent on the Prime Minister to check the books and tell the people the facts about what was inherited: the true national debt, the cost of debt service, the assets we no longer own and those earmarked for divestment in the near term. Forensic inquiry is not needed for this exercise. The people would likely become more understanding, tolerant and inclined to make some sacrifice, and you will get some breathing room. Fashion a deficit free budget guided by the limitations of the economy Then set policy that will provide the needed foundation, pressure firms to move on to a higher level of output and competitiveness and mobilize the masses. But don’t hold your breath. It might be easier to find the proverbial needle in a haystack
The author of The End of The American Century (1989) opined that good organizations should be structured by geniuses so that idiots can run them. Would one be amiss in saying the same thing about government organization on the rock?






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