Is the Cadres Polling System Good for Barbados?

Submitted by Poor Barbados
Peter Wickham political scientist ‘...gets almost all his polls right and has only missed one big one here...’

Peter Wickham, Political Scientist

Clearly the answer is NO!

As we are now suffering in Barbados under the DLP, it is clear the cadres pollsters played role in the DLP’s victory.

I like many can’t seem to get over the unintentional or intentional impact we believe the cadres poll had on the outcome of the last election in Barbados.   It’s either that the cadres pollsters were drinking too much rum punch election night, secretly in bed with the DLP or the election was stolen noting the small margin of victory.  It is felt by many that misinformation on election night from cadres impacted voter turnout.

So as I see my fellow Bajans struggling to make ends meet under this current government, each time I hear political analyst from cadres on the radio or TV I can’t help but to reflect back on that major polling blunder not talked about enough to this day, so I’m talking about it on BU today.

For Political analysts who are usually spot on, to be so far off just seems real curious to me. When the next election comes and hopefully soon… I don’t even want to hear the word CADRES ok peter.

Stuart Winning the Leadership Race as E-Day Looms

Fruendel Stuart leads Arthur in latest CADRES Poll!

Click image to read Nation newspaper report – photo credit: Nation Newspaper

Based on the most recent CADRES poll Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart is winning the leadership race. What must be of concern is that the Wickham poll was conducted before Minister of Agriculture David Estwick delivered one of the most powerful presentations of the campaign so far at the NCF on Friday night.

How will this translate in the individual constituencies with a 3.4% swing in play makes it a very interesting general election.

DLP Reality Check

Submitted by Porridgeboy

Maureen Holder (r) replaced Peter Wickham (l) as resident political scientist at the CBC when his contract was not renewed.

It has been some time since I have made a contribution to the blog, but at this time I feel compelled to put pen to paper once again so as to state some facts.Since the May 5th and most recently the September 30th a political poll was published The member base of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) seems to have gone on a campaign to assassinate the character of  pollster Peter Wickham who carried out the poll commissioned by the Nation newspaper .

I have never meet Mr Wickham but I know of  his outstanding work as a pollster in Barbados and in the Caribbean. Needless to say wherever he has done his polling, political or otherwise he has always been correct. Mr Wickham was trained by the late Pat Emmanuel and then worked under him from 1994 until his death. He carried out his first poll in 1998 and has done so successfully since in Barbados and throughout the wider Caribbean. There is no doubt that he has been successful. The Cadres poll which he directs is no fly by night firm nor is it a hit and miss guess work organisation.

Polling is a science and somehow he seems to have perfected it and with every poll he puts his professional reputation on the line. This is why I do not understand the thinking of the members and or supporters of the DLP and especially some Ministers of Government. It makes you wonder if this is the same Peter Wickham who carried out the poll which was commission by the same Nation newspaper in 2008.

Continue reading

Dear Dear Me Maureen

Submitted by Old Onion Bags

Loose lips sink ships”

Maureen Holder replaced Peter Wickham as the CBC resident political analyst

Yesterday’s onslaught by CBC resident political analyst on TV Morning Barbados to denounce CADRES polls smacks on political opportunism. Since when was Maureen an experienced pollster anyway? From the criticisms levied and brazen arguments put forward, one would have believed she had experience in this field and conducted many many polls, locally and regionally, comparable to CADRES.The unfortunate incident could do nothing more, than to discredit a professional pollster and affiliated organization CADRES. In boomerang, enabling the opportunity of placing one’s creditability on the line, come the morning after elections, should one be proved wrong. The amount of egg that would have to be caressed, should Wickham’s polls prove correct, is enough to put Star Chick out of business for a month and possibly destroy one’s own credibility.

Since when do professionals exhibit such officious behaviour any way ?
Dear me Madam, what were you thinking? Could there be some other logical explanation for the now accepted regular BLEEP or has the Carson contagious disease gone epidemic?

CADRES Poll #2

Arthur and Stuart, leaders of the BLP and DLP

Share your thoughts about the latest CADRES Poll. You can scroll to the bottom of this page to post comments at the constituency level. In case you missed it, a 6% swing against government is projected. The findings contained in the poll coincides with BU’s view that barring a miracle the DLP will not be returned to office in the next general election, whenever it is called.

The Stuart administration has been unable to effectively articulate a message to the electorate. How will they respond? Mudslinging will not do it!

A Few Questions About The CADRES Poll

Peter Wickham, Head of CADRES

A couple questions about the recent CADRES Poll.

With less than one year to go before a general election is constitutionally due, why would those (entity) who commissioned the poll not have requested constituency polling and also sought to adjudge the size of the swing for or against the government?Isn’t this the information which would be in demand at this time?

Who commissioned the poll and what was the role of the Nation newspaper in delivering the information to Barbadians?

The May 2012 CADRES Poll

Peter Wickham, Head of CADRES

The recent CADRES Poll has added fervour to the political climate in Barbados with a general election constitutionally due by April 2013 on the horizon. The poll was anonymously funded and exclusivity given to the Nation newspaper. Regrettably the information  was published by the Nation in the most non-user friendly manner which made the analysis and conclusion of CADRES a challenge to follow for some.

BU is pleased to make available the CADRES Poll in its original format. Thanks to BU family member (BAFBFP)  for  the assist.

Are Political Opinion Polls Always Right? A Different View

Submitted by Yardbroom

Peter Wickham, Head of CADRES

The recent CADRES opinion poll has generated much debate and rightly so, because it has given ammunition to those – mainly BLP supporters but not singularly – who believe this DLP Government will be defeated at the next general election.  It has also caused some anxiety even to committed DLP diehards.  I will take a different view to the majority expressed on BU (Barbados Underground) and in the interest of “balance” seek to address some misconceptions.

“An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a Poll, is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample.  Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.”  It was once said: “Opinion polls are like soup you take a spoon full and you have a flavour of the whole”.

But BAJANS know you can dip a spoon in a bowl of souse and come up with only a liquid of peppers, cucumber and onions the “meat” can be at the bottom of the bowl.

Is there empirical data from which I can draw to substantiate the view I have taken.

Continue reading

The CADRES Poll: A Reason For Stuart To Ponder

Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart

Minister of Culture Stephen Lashley was quoted in the press on the weekend blaming the lack of a media policy at the National Cultural Foundation (NCF) for feeding perennial controversies during the Crop Over period. To summarize his view: the ad hoc manner NCF officials have interacted with the media must stop. BU agrees with the minister that an effective media policy will always add value to the process of disseminating timely and accurate information.

To support Lashley view, we had another Lashley demonstrating why a media policy is useful. Yesterday at the St. James North Democratic Labour Party (DLP) Constituency meeting Minister of Housing Michael Lashley reacted to the CADRES poll by telling party supporters, “polls don’t vote”. Lashley who has been unusually silent in recent weeks – as well as Minister of Agriculture David Estwick – no doubt strayed from his substantive script of expounding about government’s housing program to share his views on the findings of the CADRES poll.

BU suspects that Nation newspaper reporter Mike King travelled to the St. James North Constituency meeting with great anticipation stoked by the release of the CADRES poll. Lashley did not disappoint. Here is a classic case where a media policy of government should have kicked in to guide public pronouncements about how to treat with the CADRES matter by key government officials.  Especially given the nature of its findings. The nonsensical comments attributed to Minister of Housing Michael Lashley in the Nation newspaper showed clearly his comments were off the cuff and exposed a kind of lethargy by our leadership which is not welcomed in 2012.

Continue reading

Prime Minister Stuart, It Is time To Ring The Bell

Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart

The eagerly awaited Peter Wickham Cadres poll has been leaked to the media. Based on the report Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart appears to be viewed as less likely to lead the DLP to victory. It is bad enough the DLP government has had to combat managing the economy in an austere environment, to float a damaging poll  at this time is perhaps the final nail in the coffin. One did not need a poll to assess that Prime Minister Stuart does not have the national profile or support at this time. Who can forget Minister David Estwick wearing a red short on the morning of the tragic event.

It is sad that a BLP government which was voted out of office less than five years ago will probably be returned without having to revamp or promise any radical policies to Barbadians. At this stage BU is somewhat nonplus about what the political landscape is likely to be. What is sure is that it will be more of the same. Prime Minister Stuart the best advice BU can give you is to ring the bell. The country cannot afford yet another political cat fight.

A people will get the government it deserves.