COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

2,223 comments

  • Positivity rates below 5%

    28 March, 2.08%
    29 March, 1.63%
    30 March, 2.71%
    31 March, 1.06%
    1 April, 0.90%
    2 April, 0.86% Good Friday Public Holiday
    3 April, 2.54%
    4 April, 1.69% Easter Sunday
    5 April, 2.21% Easter Monday Public Holiday
    6 April, 1.0%
    7 April, 1.54%
    8 April, 0.64%
    9 April, 1.87%
    10 April, 3.42 % The highest positivity rate in 14 days

    Like

  • Ontario reports record-high 4,456 new COVID-19 cases Sunday

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-update-april-11-1.5983224

    Like

  • 220 Covid19 tests were done on Sunday 11 April, 2021. The positivity rate was 1.81% compared to 3.42 % the day before
    4 new cases of Covid19 were discovered yesterday
    6 people were discharged from isolation
    88 people are currently in isolation
    0 people were vaccinated yesterday
    65,873 people have been vaccinated so far. The same number as the day before. Heavy volcanic dust prevented any vaccinations yesterday
    0 new deaths
    More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/04/12/covid-19-update-4-new-cases-6-recovered/

    Like

  • Positivity rates below 5%

    28 March, 2.08%
    29 March, 1.63%
    30 March, 2.71%
    31 March, 1.06%
    1 April, 0.90%
    2 April, 0.86% Good Friday Public Holiday
    3 April, 2.54%
    4 April, 1.69% Easter Sunday
    5 April, 2.21% Easter Monday Public Holiday
    6 April, 1.0%
    7 April, 1.54%
    8 April, 0.64%
    9 April, 1.87%
    10 April, 3.42 % The highest positivity rate in 14 days
    11 April 1.81%

    Like

  • TORONTO — As the third wave overtakes the province, with no sign of slowing down, Ontario’s hospitals are turning into war zones — and those working in the ICUs are warning that we’re not just running out of beds, but also of the people capable of treating the patients in them.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/ontario-s-hard-hit-icus-aren-t-just-running-out-of-beds-but-also-doctors-and-nurses-1.5384974

    Like

  • @Hants

    Read that Canada’s infections exceeded USA yesterday.

    Liked by 1 person

  • 153 Covid19 tests were done on Tuesday 13 April, 2021. The positivity rate was 2.61%
    4 new cases of Covid19 were discovered yesterday
    11 people were discharged from isolation
    85 people are currently in isolation
    0 people were vaccinated yesterday
    65,873 people have been vaccinated so far. The same number as the day before. Heavy volcanic dust prevented any vaccinations yesterday
    0 new deaths
    More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/04/14/covid-19-update-4-new-cases-11-recovered/

    Like

  • Positivity rates below 5%

    28 March, 2.08%
    29 March, 1.63%
    30 March, 2.71%
    31 March, 1.06%
    1 April, 0.90%
    2 April, 0.86% Good Friday Public Holiday
    3 April, 2.54%
    4 April, 1.69% Easter Sunday
    5 April, 2.21% Easter Monday Public Holiday
    6 April, 1.0%
    7 April, 1.54%
    8 April, 0.64%
    9 April, 1.87%
    10 April, 3.42 % The highest positivity rate in 14 days
    11 April 1.81%
    12 April??
    13 April, 2.61%

    Like

  • It is getting worse in Ontario.

    “Across Ontario, there are 4,736 new cases of COVID-19, a single day record for cases in the province. ”

    https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-sets-single-day-record-for-covid-19-cases-342-new-cases-in-ottawa-1.5388592

    Like

  • 562 Covid19 tests were done on Wednesday 14 April, 2021. The positivity rate was 1.60%
    compared to 2.61% the previous day
    9 new cases of Covid19 were discovered yesterday
    4 people were discharged from isolation
    80 people are currently in isolation
    196 people were vaccinated yesterday
    65,069 people have been vaccinated so far.
    0 new deaths
    Because of the volcanic dust virtually everybody is wearing masks, so maybe the positivity rate may go down a bit??
    More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/04/15/covid-19-update-nine-new-cases-four-discharged/

    Like

  • Positivity rates below 5%

    28 March, 2.08%
    29 March, 1.63%
    30 March, 2.71%
    31 March, 1.06%
    1 April, 0.90%
    2 April, 0.86% Good Friday Public Holiday
    3 April, 2.54%
    4 April, 1.69% Easter Sunday
    5 April, 2.21% Easter Monday Public Holiday
    6 April, 1.0%
    7 April, 1.54%
    8 April, 0.64%
    9 April, 1.87%
    10 April, 3.42 % The highest positivity rate in 14 days
    11 April 1.81%
    12 April??
    13 April, 2.61%
    14 April, 1.60%

    Like

  • I do not like positivity rates that much. It is like setting down traps in a part of the forest and then counting the number of rabbits that you caught.

    There are some parts where you may not set traps, but where there are a large number of rabbits.

    However, testing and contract tracing is still the best method determining where to place the traps.

    Good job cuhdear. You and lyall are just fantastic

    Like

  • Bosstic and gang has done a great job against covid-19 and the coven.

    Looks as if they overcame and banished the coven (Mariposa & co.) and will do the same to covid-19.

    Like

  • 562 Covid19 tests were done on Thursday 15 April, 2021. The positivity rate was 2.08% compared to 1.60% the previous day
    12 new cases of Covid19 were discovered yesterday
    10 people were discharged from isolation
    77 people are currently in isolation
    1831 people were vaccinated yesterday
    66,900 people have been vaccinated so far.
    0 new deaths
    Because of the volcanic dust virtually everybody is wearing masks, so maybe the positivity rate may go down a bit??
    More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/04/16/covid-19-update-12-new-cases-10-recoveries/

    Like

  • Positivity rates below 5%

    28 March, 2.08%
    29 March, 1.63%
    30 March, 2.71%
    31 March, 1.06%
    1 April, 0.90%
    2 April, 0.86% Good Friday Public Holiday
    3 April, 2.54%
    4 April, 1.69% Easter Sunday
    5 April, 2.21% Easter Monday Public Holiday
    6 April, 1.0%
    7 April, 1.54%
    8 April, 0.64%
    9 April, 1.87%
    10 April, 3.42 % The highest positivity rate in 14 days
    11 April 1.81%
    12 April??
    13 April, 2.61%
    14 April, 1.60%
    15 April, 2.08% 14th day after the Easter Holy Days began on Good Friday, 2nd April.

    Like

  • But there is this

    Apostle: List of 14 sent to ministry and ‘none negative’ cries sabotage
    19 at Harvest Ministries Covid-19 positive
    by MARIA BRADSHAW
    mariabradshaw@nationnews.com
    NINETEEN MEMBERS of the World Harvest Ministries in Speightstown, St Peter, have tested positive for COVID-19 and their leader, who has been preaching against the closure of places of worship, is adamant the virus was “planted” at his church. While the church members were all in isolation at Harrison Point, St Lucy, leaders Apostle Lynroy and Heather Scantlebury had rejected taking the COVID-19 test and were in isolation at their home over the last eight days.
    However, following inquiries from this newspaper about the church on Monday, Scantlebury said he was subsequently ordered by Chief Medical Officer Dr Kenneth George to report to Paragon in Christ Church. “This was planted at our church,” he told the MIDWEEK NATION during a telephone interview from Paragon.
    On Monday, when contacted following reports from a church member that 22 of them had tested positive, George said, “The information about 22 people is false”, pointing out there were only seven positive cases. He also said the church had been closed because of certain issues.
    “There is a church in the north of the island which the Ministry [of Health] has been investigating over the last ten to 14 days. There were a total of seven persons who have tested positive and this was based on our contact tracing. Those persons were sent to Harrison Point per usual.
    “We understand that there are some issues within the church with respect to flouting the laws of Barbados. The church was closed for a minimum of two weeks and the public health officials will direct the next move,” he said.
    However, Scantlebury said he was informed by George yesterday that 19 members from his church had tested positive. He added the church had sent a list of 14 to the ministry and none of them was negative. The minister charged that his church was never closed by officials and further denied reports they had breached the earlier protocols by having more than ten stipulated members in attendance. “We have not been contacted by the COVID Unit. We have not had any calls from them saying they have closed World Harvest,” he said. “The last service we had was on April 4. We went into quarantine and sent a note out to my ministers and members, notifying them that we are in a 14 day quarantine and the ministry would be closed for those 14 days. I have always operated within the rule of what we had to do and my members know that.”
    He admitted that he and his wife had rejected receiving the COVID-19 test because they felt they would be “sabotaged” due to the statements he made criticising Government on closing the churches

    Like

  • Where I live.

    Ontario’s new COVID-19 restrictions include increased police powers, restricting gatherings

    https://globalnews.ca/news/7764119/covid-ontario-restrictions-police-borders-gatherings/

    Like

  • Lynroy C. Scantlebury
    Election Candidate, Barbados
    Lynroy C. Scantlebury is a Barbadian politician.
    Career
    Lynroy C. Scantlebury is the Senior Minister of World Harvest Ministries Int’l, located in Speightstown, St. Peter. He is the Chief Executive of Scantlebury Financial Investments, and President of the Lynroy Scantlebury Foundation for Excellence.
    He has also served on the Board of Management of the St. Lucy Secondary School. He is also the Public Relations Officer of the West Coast Gospel Inc., which hosts the annual Northern Primary Schools Choir Competition.
    Scantlebury will be contesting the St. Peter seat in the 2018 general election. He unsuccessfully contested the seat in the 2013 election as independent candidate.
    Personal life
    Scantlebury is married to wife Heather who serves with him in the ministry.

    Source: http://caribbeanelections.com/knowledge/biography/bios/scantlebury_lynroy.asp

    Like

  • The New Barbados Kingdom Alliance received 72 votes in the 2013 election. The party had promised to wipe our Barbados’ debt in 2 years, and to stamp out corruption. Since 153,204 votes were cast in that election I guess that the electorate was not convinced.

    Like

  • The cleric suggested that the virus would go away when Christians of faith and action tell it to, arguing that instead, they were waiting for it to run its course.

    Source: Barbados Today, April 10. 2020

    Like

  • Call for apostle’s apology
    By Maria Bradshaw mariabradshaw@nationnews.com
    Some members of World Harvest Ministries International Church are demanding an apology from their leader, Apostle Lynroy Scantlebury, as more people who attend the St Peter-based church continue to test positive for COVID-19.
    Upset members told the Weekend Nation they felt misled by the church and fell victim to Scantlebury’s many pronunciations that COVID-19 could not touch the church. As a result, they did not strictly adhere to the health protocols.
    “Yes, people had to get their temperatures checked before they entered the church but on March 21, we had 68 people in attendance and on March 26 we had about 75 people and no one was wearing masks or social distancing,” one church member said.
    The individual said there were about 26 people, including 19 church members, as well as family members who tested positive and were at the Harrison Point isolation facility in St Lucy, while more were in quarantine at a hotel.
    Church members also revealed there were others critically ill at home but refusing to get tested.
    Scantlebury and his wife, Heather, had declined to take the COVID-19 test and were quarantining at home, but were ordered by Chief Medical Officer Dr Kenneth George to report to the Paragon facility in Christ Church on Monday.
    On Tuesday in an interview with this newspaper, Scantlebury, who has been strongly criticising Government over the closure of churches and only allowing a maximum of ten people to attend services during the lockdown periods, said he believed the disease was “planted” at his church.
    “How can you plant COVID?” a church member asked yesterday, as he expressed disappointment that, as far as he knew, Scantlebury had not personally reached out to sick members at Harrison Point.
    “Members are angry that he has not personally contacted those who are sick, not even those in his inner circle. It is very hurtful because we had to watch when a member’s wife collapsed, went into a coughing fit and had to be taken to the Intensive Care Unit for observation for 48 hours.
    “There are families up there who are sick. There are people on oxygen fighting for their lives and are on ventilators,” the member cried.
    Another member said when officials reached out to the church to request contact tracing following the first few cases, a list of names submitted to health officials was “doctored” while members were advised not to submit to the test.
    “Members were told not to get the test and if they went for the test, to put menthol in their nose, because this would affect the test. We were told not to mention the church’s name if we were asked about contact tracing.”
    Describing Scantlebury as “a very charismatic leader”, a member said that was the reason why they believed him that COVID-19 would not get into the church.
    “At the end of the day, it is only now that when you really look at it, you have an understanding that you were in a sense blinded by the situation. You got to realise, too, that when you under leadership, it is only when you sit by yourself and think, that you tell yourself what you did was wrong or you were naive to certain things. He is a very charismatic leader.”
    The member added that the church also had an official stationed downstairs the building who was acting as the lookout for police or the COVID Monitoring Unit, while those in attendance were advised to park their vehicles away from the church located at the Omni Corporate Centre in Speightstown.
    A relative of a church member who is at Harrison Point said they were now discovering the lengths church leaders had gone to shield the church.
    But she asked: “Why did they not go to such lengths to protect members from COVID?”
    The relative also shared a WhatsApp message which Scantlebury sent to his leaders on Wednesday in which he denied giving an interview to the Nation.
    In the message, which he signed, he said: “I have not to this day given any interview to any media house in Barbados . . . . At this time all I can ask is for you to stay strong and keep praying. We love you all – only God’s victory for us in this situation.”
    When contacted again yesterday, Scantlebury reiterated that he had not submitted to an “official interview” with this newspaper.
    However, when asked if he had heard comments made by Minister of Health Jeffrey Bostic about
    COVID-19 cases at a church in the north, he said he was dealing with two emergency situations and it was not a good time to speak on the matter.
    Source: Weekend Nation, Friday 16 April, 2021

    Like

Join in the discussion, you never know how expressing your view may make a difference.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s