September 6, 2019

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board meeting.
  • Barbados continues to make good progress in implementing its ambitious and comprehensive economic reform program.

At the request of the Government of Barbados, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Bert van Selm visited Bridgetown from September 3–6, to discuss implementation of Barbados’ Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan, supported by the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). A concluding meeting was held with Prime Minister Mottley on September 6, 2019. To summarize the mission’s findings, Mr. van Selm made the following statement:

“Barbados continues to make good progress in implementing its ambitious and comprehensive economic reform program.

“All indicative targets for end-June under the EFF have been met. The target for the government’s primary surplus was met with a wide margin, with the government running a primary surplus of 2½ percent of (annual) GDP in the first quarter of FY2019/20. This bodes well for achieving the government’s primary surplus target of 6 percent of GDP for FY2019/20. International reserves were also well over program targets at end-June.

“Good progress has been made in implementing end-June and July 2019 structural benchmarks under the EFF. The authorities have completed a review of the tax system and the Governor General has proclaimed the recently enacted Financial Management and Audit Act.

“Progress being made by the authorities in furthering good-faith discussions with external creditors is welcome. Continuing open dialogue and sharing of information will remain important in concluding an orderly debt restructuring process.

“The team is looking forward to return to Barbados in November to conduct the discussions for the Article IV and second review under the EFF and would like to thank the authorities and the technical team for their openness and candid discussions.

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: Randa Elnagar
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
@IMFSpokesperson

 

211 responses to “IMF Staff Pleased with Barbados so far”


  1. Thanks David

    I don’t do Facebook, purely in for professional reasons due to a retiree group so it’s not my avenue of first resort.

    BTW is BWA counting on a large majority of households accessing Facebook to receive info?
    What myopic thinking, but the again we had a former Minister who proclaimed we didn’t need libraries because we had the Internet…….


  2. @Sargeant

    The customer hotline is suppose to assist with inquires like yours. Not sure that it works to satisfaction.


  3. You only need to remember one formula and you good on this topic.

    IMF HAPPY=BAJANS BREK!


  4. @John A

    What are the underlying reasons which brought us to this point?


  5. @ Mariposa

    Just ask for a list of this financial brilliance. Give examples. Is BERT part of it?


  6. @David.

    They are several issues but the main ones are poor fiscal management and the “printorama” sinkler went on where he threw the balance of bajan dollars to USD supply through the window.

    We go blame an oversized civil service, poorly functioning indirect taxation systems and the list goes on and on, but if I had to name 2 I would say the 2 above are the main culprits.


  7. @John A

    We have passed this road before. What about consumer behaviour? Our lack of civic awareness and responsibility under our system of government etc?


  8. @ David.

    Well The consumer activity would not have occurred if we did not print billions that then chased a limited supply of USD nearly to extinction. It goes back to fiscal policy and management. The rule is if you put more money in peoples hands they will spend it. That is not just here but globally. That is fine and good where your import bill is low, as it means the extra liquidity would be spent on local items, but here where we import everything practically even lettuce, it was an extremely dangerous move. As a result the birds have now come home to roost with the IMF measures implemented to try and restore balance by cutting the flow of BDS dollars into the economy by any way possible.


  9. The flaw in your position is that the skid started before Sinckler. Do you remember former head of the Economic Council Frank Alleyne admission we have structual matters to address in the economy during the first term of the DLP 10 year tenure? What happened?


  10. @ David.

    What would be interesting is to know the total amount of Bajan dollars printed between say 2010 – 2018. That would give you a good idea of how the system was thrown out of balance in terms of a dollar value.


  11. Yes I heard Alleyne say that but he is a man that is very careful not to mention numbers, so while his statement was true we can’t categorise the imbalance without knowing the total amount printed over the period. I know it’s in the billions but how many?


  12. @ David.

    USDs are no different say to tomatoes after heavy a period of heavy rain. No one has them but the demand for them is still there. So if I added to the problem and gave 1000 people $100 and said on Saturday go into the market and buy all the local tomatoes you can find, you can see what the does to the already short supply.


  13. Meant having a period of heavy rain. Spell checks thinks it knows better than me what I want to say!


  14. @ Mariposa September 7, 2019 11:39 AM
    “What good things has Mottley done for the people of Barbados
    All by itself it took Mia six months to respond to the cries of retirees suffering in broad daylight
    Give me a f.king break
    Enough is enough..”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Sounds like the kind of cry and complaint you- the many pussies the Maripokey – “ac” should have been making about the South coast sewage when it was spilling over on the streets and seeping into the sea on the South coast of the once properly-managed Barbados.

    What did your shit-loving Lord Fumble say and do about it other than throw his hands up in the air to say:
    ‘Oh what a shi
    ty sight to see two fecal johnnies floating in the sea of ‘brown’ surfs.’

    Meanwhile, his jabbering ministerial clowns in charge of the people’s health and the country’s lone moneymaker ‘daubed’ as tourism singing from the same hymn sheet of tomfoolery printed on a tissue made from the waste of Bajan bodies.

    Your previous DLP administration was nothing but a mere common-breed ‘shi**te hound pretending to be a mongrel of outstanding pedigree.

    It was an issue of sh**te which brought down your administration (not the megalomaniac Mottley) and it would be the same ‘corrupted’ pit toilet of arrogance and stupidity which will keep you and it where you both belong.


  15. “IMF HAPPY=BAJANS BREK!”

    perfectly summed up…

    but that would have never been the case if Mia had.:

    ..LOCKED UP THOSE WHO STOLE 1 BILLION DOLLARS IN VAT…..instead of writing it off….and holding NO ONE accountable…

    ……make the tax evaders PAY THEIR FAIR SHARE…tax cheats DESTROY COUNTRIES…..hello, Barbados is a PRIME EXAMPLE…

    ..make TIEFING Cow, Maloney, et al PAY BACK all they STOLE from the PENSION FUND to the TREASURY…

    and we can go on all day…

    so this does not rest at IMFs door…it rests at the doors of 2 CORRUPT GOVERNMENTS…

    am now absolutely SURE…that the PRAYING has begun, that no hurricanes KNOCKS DOWN BARBADOS’ DOORS.


  16. @John A

    You are an experienced and smart fellow. If you have been creating debt in your household budget for almost 10 years, there will come a point you have to suck it up right? There will be no silver bullets, no one solution that will be the panacea to the problems, right? Let some of us leave the hyperbole at the door and sprinkle a little commonsense on approaches.

    What the Central Bank has now done because it has purchased those pieces of Government paper, it has transferred those funds that were not being utilised in the financial system into the financial system, because Government would then use those funds to purchase goods and services and other assets. That is the most recent type of money creation which has been occurring in Barbados.
    What is important but hasn’t emerged in the discussion though is that money creation mostly occurs when those funds get into the financial system, where commercial banks can start using those funds to lend. But, most commercial banks haven’t been using the funds to lend, they have just been accumulating additional liquid assets at the Central Bank because of the uncertainty of the economy. So, the amount of money creation taking place is not as much as we would have expected if the Central Bank was doing that kind of activity in normal situations.

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/94023/professor-tells-printing-money-means


  17. @ John A

    I have said until I am blue in the face, the only real risk from printing money is an asset bubble. If we were to dollarise (US) the economy we lose that tool.


  18. From more authoritative source, Central Bank of Barbados

    THE term “printing money” always conveys intrigue and mystery among those who take it literally. In fact however, when properly examined, one will find that “printing money” is really not quite what we expected.

    Here is an explanation.

    According to the March 2016 Economic Press Release from the Central Bank of Barbados, in the fiscal year that ended in March 2016, the Government collected almost $2,600 million in revenue, while spending some $3,440 million.

    That difference, some $840 million, had to be borrowed. Approximately 108.5 million was raised by way of Savings Bonds and from private pension funds, insurance companies and others; the NIS subscribed $71.2 million from revenues in excess of its payments; and commercial banks contributed another $238 million directly or indirectly.

    There was no net funding from abroad for the period.

    That left approximately $190 million of Government spending for which there was no financing available from any domestic source. In order to avoid a buildup of arrears of this amount, the Central Bank made advances to Government, sufficient to cover the remaining expenditure.

    This is the amount that is properly to be regarded as an injection of additional spending power into the economy, which for reasons which are obscure and uninteresting, most economists refer to as “the printing of money”, or new money creation.

    The printing of money is problematic precisely because it is an injection of additional spending power, and it is in Barbados dollars.

    A l l other Government revenues and financing are in effect a recycling of revenues earned by individuals or companies. In the case of taxes, this is obvious. It is also the case for savings bonds and purchases of Treasury Bills and Government bonds by individuals, banks, insurance companies and others. These are funds that were accumulated, in excess of the expenditures by their owners.

    The amounts advanced by Central Bank are different: they are new money, which is not derived from any previously earned income. That creates a major problem, because this new money goes to fund spending — on wages, goods and services, and other areas. Those who receive this money will in turn spend it, at the supermarket, at restaurants and bars, and elsewhere.

    The sellers now need to import more to restock, but no additional foreign exchange has been generated to fund these imports. The upshot is an additional demand on the Central Bank, to provide foreign exchange from its reserves.

    That is the reason that the term, the printing of money is to be avoided: it results inevitably in a loss of foreign exchange reserves. It is also clear from the above what must be done to avoid the printing of money or new money creation: Government expenditure must be reduced to the amount that can be financed without resort to the Central Bank.

    It is not the “printing of money”, but the lending to government that is referred to by that term, which is to be avoided.

    http://www.centralbank.org.bb/_economic-insightbb/printing-money


  19. The amounts advanced by Central Bank are different: they are new money, which is not derived from any previously earned income. That creates a major problem, because this new money goes to fund spending — on wages, goods and services, and other areas. Those who receive this money will in turn spend it, at the supermarket, at restaurants and bars, and elsewhere.(Quote)

    In short, asset bubbles. Economic illiterates should butt out of serous conversations when they know nothing about the subject. This can be managed. We have been doing this globally for over 25 years.
    Quantitative Easing is the printing of money. The Japanese started it in the 1990s, the lost decade, and it has been successfully adopted by the rest of the world, including the G7 in 2008. The IMF also backs QE.
    Even Prof Persaud would agree.


  20. From another authoritative source, Doctor somebody.:

    “Printing money is a short-term measure to make up for the shortfall in government revenue, because without it social services might collapse, there would be problems, but it is not a sustainable long-term solution. It is a clear message thet you need to fix the deficit. The deficit is just too large!”

    http://www.loopnewsbarbados.com/content/govt-printing-money-not-solution

    “But, there are also dangerous with printing money in and of itself in the sense that that money goes into the economy, it is spent and because so much of what we spend is imported, it can have a foreign impact on the foreign exchange reserves.

    “But the more fundamental problem is that if you are printing money, it sends to me a clear message that the deficit is too large. What the government’s bills relevant to its bills plus borrowing are not enough so you need to make adjustments to your spending.”


  21. “Printing money is a short-term measure to make up for the shortfall in government revenue, because without it social services might collapse, there would be problems, but it is not a sustainable long-term solution. It is a clear message thet you need to fix the deficit. The deficit is just too large!”(Quote)

    But, there are also dangerous with printing money in and of itself in the sense that that money goes into the economy, it is spent and because so much of what we spend is imported, it can have a foreign impact on the foreign exchange reserves.(Quote)

    Economics 101: An economy functions better when consumers and corporates are performing well; in cases of a slow down, then it is the responsibility of government to stimulate the economy.
    The best way of doing this is through infrastructural developments. I have suggested bulldozing the City and turning t n to a modern 24 hour environment; removing the Transport Board from Roebuck Street (to preferably St John) and use that invaluable site to new developments: apartments, offices, shops, recreation, etc. That development would pay for itself over generations.
    Where is the growth in an austerity programme? Where is the growth in subsidising zombie hotels? Where is the growth n borrowing money to service debt?


  22. In the context of Barbados, note context of Barbados. How does printing money help our situation if there is heavy liquidity i.e. banks not lending, consumers not borrowing? No attractive investments to be had,

    @askingforanidiot.


  23. That Hal supports Mariposa after the disastrous 2008-2018 period–characterised by a slew of failed policies and programmes by the DLP (which Mariposa supported 100%)–tells us that the former Senior Editor is a dishonest human. How does one side with a hypocrite? Since in their opinion there’s no growth strategy, they should tell BU what one looks like and what the government is or isn’t doing to engender growth. Common sense tells me that after the annihilation of the economy by Sinckler et al, recovery must follow and, given the long known structural issues, some transformation before sustained growth can be realised. Imagine a woman who supported an administration that failed so miserably has the temerity to question a government, that can at least pay income tax returns and reverse tax credits, about growth!! Where was Sinckler’s growth after 10+ years and 5 growth plans?🤣🎪🤡🤡


  24. @Enuff

    I know you are hiding behind a mask. But after 15 months, the Mottley government should at least set out its programme for the economy. All we have got so far is the nonsense of BERT.
    By the way, agreeing with @Mariposa when she makes good statements seems to mean a lot in your little world. In my world it means I agree with what say I agree with, the specifics. @ Mariposa is a better critic of society than many on BU. By the way, we do not have TO REVIEW the Sinckler years forever. He failed. Let’s move on..
    Mottley came to power and had no grand plan, apart from drafting in childhood friends to manage the economy. She cannot keep faking it. She must be held to account.


  25. @ David.

    Good that you found those articles to print they confirm my point in that we went on a spree and sent too many Bajan dollars to chase too few bajan dollars. What we should of done as the old people say ” is cut we suit according to we cloth.”

    Sinkler sole purpose was to get to 2018 elections without rocking the boat at all cost. We now sadly will pay the cost of correction for years to come. What the IMF basically will do is remove all the over supply of bajan dollars out the system by austerity and the local debt restructuring thereby closing the gap between bajan dollar circulation and USD supply.


  26. @ Hal

    I agree with you going to the USD is the solution as you can’t print them or spend what you don’t have. The thing is though that would remove the tampering with money supply from the politicians and God knows they don’t want that.


  27. @John A

    Agree that Sinckler acerbated the situation . The rampant conspicuous consumption must be addressed made worse by the need to produce and earn as a people by building a sustainable economic and social model.


  28. @ John A

    Our problem is not the temptation to print money, it is interfering incompetent politicians – the Bajan Condition. Barbados does not have any economically insoluble problems; what we have are know-it-all politicians who could not run a rum shop and who would not stop over-ruling the experts. I call that the DeLisle Worrell puzzle – when to tell Sinckler to bugger off and walk out.


  29. @ David.

    That point you brought up about excess liquidity and printing money is an excellent point for discussion as it is very misleading to many. So let’s simplify it for easy digestion.

    Excess liquidity is basically a sign of fear and uncertainty in an economy and is in fact not a good thing. It means people are so unsure they just keep putting their money on the bank, regardless of getting little or no interest.

    Now printing of money in Sinkler s case was mainly done to keep the civil servants employed to elections. It was based on a false economic theory and was like me or you running up our credit cards so we could put gas in a bigger car than we could afford. It also increased the excess liquidity problem because the same civil servants also felt unsure, so they too put their money on the bank as well.

    The thing is now once this money has been printed and handed out, you can’t just go and confiscate it so what do we do? We have to find ways of constricting its value. Local debt restructuring, increased taxes, what ever is required to bring supply and demand back in line.

    It really is a slippery down hill slope we are on. Sadly what it boils down to is what amount of bajan dollars can our USD supply support. You noticed neither the central bank governor or PM have ever gone there to discuss that! Trust me there is a good reason why no one wants to touch that can of worms!


  30. @ Hal

    Yes I agree Worrell could of walked out but all that would of happened is sinkler would of appointed an interim governor who would of danced to his tune and the printery would of kept on as planned.

    The worst part about it is that nothing has been done to stop it happening again. The central bank has not been ring fenced and the governor still answers to the MOF.


  31. @ John A

    Plse, plse. Excess liquidity can be removed from the economy. We (the world) have been doing it for over 25 years. There is nothing unique about the Barbados economy. It is small, so what? Is this the extent of the economic debate in Barbados? I say again, liquidity can be managed.


  32. @John A

    At last a sensible comment in the hour.

    What is missing from your analysis is that the liquidity is due to a lack of consumer confidence given the state of the economy attributed to mismanagement – to use your earlier words. This state triggered several adverse conditions like financial institutions tightening lending policies, central bank and government manipulating interest rates and types of investments available.

    The biggest fear of this blogmaster is a real estate market that is artificially inflated above fair market value.


  33. @ Hal

    Yes of course liquidity can be removed but in a situation likes ours where we are already in a recession and have an over supply of bajan dollars to USD, we have to do it in a way that does not cause the collapse of a fragile economy.


  34. @ david.

    If you looked at the last figures published by the real estate guys we have a massive amount of excess inventory of unsold villas and condos. There has been some price correction of roughly 20% but the inventory is still there so what does that tell us?

    It says 2 things basically, either we are still overpriced even after the 20 discount or we have a serious lack of confidence by buyers, or maybe a combination of both these factors.

    The long and short is unless inventory sells down their is no sense building more of these properties.


  35. @John A

    You need to go further to make contact with the implication. Many of those properties in abeyance are being reflected by an out of market number on the asset side of the balance sheets of financial institutions.


  36. @ David

    Well when Jamaica hit bottom they were owners going in the banks and just dropping the keys on the managers desk and saying ” all at you now boss”. The banks then told them no keep the keys and live in the house we will work something out where it was possible.

    I don’t think we are anywhere near that here yet though. Thankfully alot of those condos are owned by foreign owners and the developers.


  37. John A

    The Barbados economy is easily manageable. Anything is difficult if you do not know what you ae doing. What we need first, and you are right, is an independent central bank.
    I will give you an example: the DLP launched its biennial Diaspora conference, it was badly managed, but it was a good idea. Mottley has replaced it with her 20/20 nationwide partying. So those of us who want to make a serious contribution to national development, and cut out the partying, are left out in the cold.
    @John A, if asked, much against my inclination, I would draft a comprehensive economic development plan for Barbados.
    By the way, I do not get your argument about an over-supply of Bajans to USDs. Think Barbados and forget the voodoo of foreign reserves. That can be dealt with through derivatives.


  38. @ David September 7, 2019 3:29 PM
    “The biggest fear of this blogmaster is a real estate market that is artificially inflated above fair market value.”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

    Brexit without a ‘good’ deal for Britain could spell the collapse of the local real estate market geared at foreign buyers; the vast majority of whom are UK domiciled.

    With the possibility of the pound sterling falling to match the exchange value of the US$ in Barbados many of the properties currently on the market will be out of the reach of the ‘average’ UK buyer.

    Barbados can forget about its UK Diaspora sending ‘back’ money to build or buy mini mansions as occurred up to 10 years ago and which was an easily suckered milch cow for lawyers and contractors.

    BTW, blogmaster, what’s really going on with the Four Seasons situation?
    Why is this property being allowed to turn into an environmental disaster which only the likes of Dorian can clean up (for good)?

    If Persuad could not get his U.K. based rich cronies to buy up those unfinished villas which were going for a song how can Bajans expect the same guy with the affected accent to persuade (via the young White Oak tree) foreign creditors to give Barbados a break by accepting a haircut equivalent to what the local bondholders had to undergo?


  39. @ Hal.

    When I say an over supply of bajan dollars what I am saying is that for the last 8 years at least, the ratio of bajan dollars in the system to USD in the same system has grown to a ratio that can not now be supported at current levels. We either have to earn more USDs or reduce the buying power of the bajan dollars already in circulation and that is what the IMF program and austerity measures are attempting to do. I would of preferred to see Less austerity and a repair of our indirect tax collection system instead, but that’s just my view. It looks like we tax bajans to collect $500 million more then we forgive others the same $500 million in vat liability. Don’t as why can’t help you there either.

    So let’s for example say they were 5 Bajan dollars 8 years ago to each USD then today they may be 9. I don’t know the numbers as the governor does not give them.


  40. @Miller

    One of the beautiful properties on our coastline left to go derelict.


  41. Once the global economy is heading toward a recession, getting rid of high end real estate would become more difficult.
    We may have to bite the bullet and further dampen foreign exchange leakage by instituting a radical food substitution program. This may be too much of an imposition on an already depressed economy.


  42. @John A

    Your point has been discussed many times in BU. Here is a refresher for those suffering ignorance.

    https://barbadosunderground.net/2017/09/09/economist-marla-dukharans-advice-to-barbados-pick-your-poison-economy/


  43. @ John A

    I got that about the ratio, but what is the significance, if not to do with reserves? The Bajan is fixed to the Greenback, so what buying power what?
    Barbados runs a current account deficit, but that is because we import more in goods and services than we export. The inability to collect VAT is incompetence. VAT is money collected by businesses on behalf off government; it is already there. Businesses should be given a six-week deadline to hand over VAT or be made bankrupt. Instead, businesses use VAT as cashflow. Scandalous.
    Whose fault is the incompetence? Civil servants or interfering politicians? Further, instead of defaulting on our domestic debt the government should have printed money to meet those obligations then remove that liquidity from the system. But our minister of finance does not do details.


  44. @ david

    Good article had not read it before. Her point is clearly made there and at least I know now I wasn’t taking foolishness. Lol.

    You know when you getting older dem things does happen!


  45. @ David.

    I would love to know the total amount of Barbados dollars in circulation today. You don’t have no contacts that can help us with that figure?

    We can get the reserve figure easily from the central bank quarterly report but to arrive at a ratio we really need the bajan dollar figure. Then again that might be harder to get than the KFC chicken recipe!


  46. Keep at John A. Like your pragmatism.


  47. @ Hal.

    Very true there and I have to agree we have failed badly when it comes to the collection of indirect taxes like VAT, which I believe is one of the fairest taxes as the consumer can decide if to buy an item or not.

    What I would of liked to have seen is an overhaul of our indirect tax systems, in terms of VAT and customs at the ports of entry. Once that had been done then the MOF could of come to the public just for the net short fall in revenue needed, if indeed there would of been any at all. This would also of helped to promote growth as less disposable income would of been taken out of the system in New taxation. It would also of addressed those shipments that come through the port in ways that see the state not collecting the full or no revenue.

    Having said that it is easier to create new taxes than fix leaking revenue sources especially if it affects the vote.


  48. @ John A

    The central bank should know. It may be they are not saying. There are US$70bn in cash in circulation worldwide. Theoretically, all this can enter and leave the Barbados economy. There is no control.


  49. @ Hal.

    Yes the central bank should have a record of the total in circulation as only they can print and withdraw old notes from circulation. The difference between printed and withdrawn would give us the circulation figure.

    Maybe they too frighten to check it! Lol


  50. @ David

    Thank you.

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