I would like to emphasize that the horizon in the American economy and in the markets is becoming increasingly dark.

America is today at the most critical point in its modern history. It is threatened with a collapse which, if it happens, will drag most of the world down.
The U.S. debt has now, amid high inflation, rising interest rates—most economic analysts expect the U.S. central bank to continue raising rates—and growing economic uncertainty in September 2023, topped $33 trillion and amounts to 124% of GDP. And the deficit of the general government – which is the federal and local government together – is over 7% of GDP. This level of debt is more than three times the level of debt in 2008 ($10 trillion) and 10 times the level in 1990 ($3.2 trillion). US debt levels have ballooned significantly in recent years, especially after a 50% increase in federal spending between fiscal years 2019–2021, according to data from the US Treasury Department.
This stark reality resulted in the House and Senate passing necessary legislation in early June 2023 that raised the ceiling on federal borrowing while imposing some limits on spending.
This, of course, was done in order to prevent a catastrophic bankruptcy of the government, i.e., the scenario of the country declaring default, unable to pay its creditors and pay salaries and pensions, which would obviously have a catalytic negative impact on international markets, as well as in the American and global economy, given the size of the American debt.
Continue reading