COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

3,250 comments

  • Go ahead England, Barbados is behind you!!

    Like

  • Standard symptom of water borne illnesses …. and incidentally … COVID!!!

    Doesn’t get more obvious than this.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/london-covid-specific-bathroom-symptom-could-be-warning-sign-of-omicron-variant/ar-AASHnKI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

    Like

  • Somebody say

    ” COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person:

    • talks
    • sings
    • shouts
    • coughs
    • sneezes

    COVID-19 can also spread by touching something that has the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. You can transmit COVID-19 before you start showing symptoms or without ever developing symptoms.”

    Like

  • Common symptoms of waterborne illness are:
    Diarrhea.
    Vomiting.
    Nausea.
    Stomach cramps.
    Fever.
    Skin, ear, or eye problems.
    Cough and or shortness of breath.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I see google says shortness of breath is also a symptom of waterborne illnesses, as is diarrhea.

    Why would anyone want to debate the obvious?

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @John, what is clearly obvious is the fact that you are not a leader like several of your former Kolig mates .

    Take for example your classmate @PLT … he also came here and set out his carefully considered ‘Welcome Stamp’ strategy… like you have your ‘Water Bourne Virus’ views.

    But unlike your fooling about with non-leadership nous – which you suggest you do possess bigly- he tapped into his contacts and demonstrated to those relevant people the EFFICACY of his recommendations.

    Why have YOU not done the same ???

    Surely @LyallS shouldn’t be the only expert reviewing your thesis … if it’s so ‘OBVIOUS’.

    Why do you spend every day plumbing the depths of this aquatic pool with us plebs still rather than at high levels like he did???

    Do your recommendations carry even one iota of validity as that of your love-to-hate ‘buddy’ … or were u always a follower to his leadership!

    Just wondering bro … the dynamics of how you too met up again here on BU and to see how remarkably the competitive spirit between the two of you has spotlighted your unacknowleged ‘Watery Posts” compared to his million$$ revenue generating ‘Stamp’ of acceptance is … … well, you tell us: what is it?

    Is there merit to you @John or has he aced you again! 🙄😇🙏🏿

    Like

  • PLT is a creature of politics, I am not.

    Why would you even see the need to compare us?

    Are you also a creature of politics?

    Like

  • Hants

    Unless they are in control of their water supply the agony will continue and may even get worse ..r.

    Like

  • Did you know that you may not be able to collect your life insurance if you die as a result of the vaccination?

    Insurance company in France is refusing to pay on the grounds that the insured committed suicide by subjecting himself to an experimental drug!!

    https://ns2017.wordpress.com/2022/01/06/en-france-deces-apres-la-vaccination-dun-grand-pere-tres-fortune-ancien-chef-dentreprise-parisien-de-versailles-avec-assurance-vie-de-plusieurs-millions-deuro-pour-le-benefice-de-ses-enfants/

    Like

  • JohnJanuary 13, 2022 3:49 PM

    PLT is a creature of politics, I am not.

    Why would you even see the need to compare us?

    Are you also a creature of politics?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I was wondering when PLT would make his appearance after the crack about the Reverent Joe and PLT’s baby chile.

    Clearly he sent you … some leader, and a coward to boot.

    Don’t you go also by the moniker Balaam’s Ass …. what a choice?

    You need to stay out of politics.

    Like

  • So we know COVID causes shortness of breath as do many waterborne diseases, I pointed out Legionnaires’ disease here the other day and showed its similarity to COVID.

    I don’t even have to invoke floods to get there, just observe the symptoms.

    If I weren’t so firghten for blood I could have been a doctor.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @John a very hearty 😆 …

    This blogging thingy is really hilarious … anyone just reading your posts as a first timer would indeed wonder
    “Why would [I] even see the need to compare [you two]?”…… What a laff!

    Would you care to tell that firsttime visitor that I ONLY know of the links between you two because YOU (and he too surely) did the comparisons for all of us here on BU re your school competitiveness dated some 50 years ago.

    What a thing, eh!

    So how wonderfully disingenuous of you to say that I making improbably bad contrasts between you guys 🤦🏾‍♂️🙈

    But back to the original script… it still does seem that he aced you again, not so — political connections or not!

    Had you guys never pompsetted here about that I would never have known he was a bête-noir of yours now would I!!😇🙄😂

    Like

  • The lady doth protest too much … methinks!!

    Like

  • A 74-year-old man passed away from the viral illness at the Harrison’s Point Isolation Facility. He was partially vaccinated.

    Like

  • There were 577 new COVID-19 cases – 251 males and 326 females – recorded on Wednesday, January 12, from the 2 439 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/13/4-181-home-isolation/

    Like

  • 2439 people were Covid19 on Wednesday 12 January 2021. Of that number 577 tested positive=23.6%

    13 vaccine clinics are open in 7 parishes. The clinics are capable of vaccinating 3,000 per day, however only 98 people showed up for their first vaccine on Wednesday.

    Like

  • The vaccine clinics are open for 6 hours each day, so a total of 78 hours each day.

    So almost an hour to vaccinate each person.

    I am thinking that the government may as well close the vaccine clinics, and redeploy the staff to areas where their services are truly needed and appreciated.

    Like

  • HantsJanuary 13, 2022 1:14 PM

    Somebody say

    ” COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person:

    • talks
    • sings
    • shouts
    • coughs
    • sneezes

    COVID-19 can also spread by touching something that has the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. You can transmit COVID-19 before you start showing symptoms or without ever developing symptoms.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Did you know that many waterborne diseases are also transmissible from person to person … like COVID!!??

    Did you know waterborne diseases are also transmissible by food?

    … and are also airborne … like COVID?

    Tomorrow I may take the position that the sky is normally blue.

    I reckon there will be some who will want to oppose for opposition sake or just were unaware of that fact.

    COVID is waterborne, simple fact of life.

    It is also airborne and can be passed from person to person.

    However the evidence is pretty clear the major spread is via water.

    Like

  • 2346 people were Covid19 on Thursday 13 January 2021. Of that number 537 tested positive=22.8%

    13 vaccine clinics are open in 7 parishes. The clinics are capable of vaccinating 3,000 per day, however only115 people showed up for their first vaccine on Wednesday.

    175 people showed up for their second vaccine or booster.

    More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/14/barbados-records-537-new-covid-19-cases/

    Like

  • Voters ? ” 451 were 18 years and older. “

    Like

  • inflammation of the heart muscle following a bout of COVID-19.

    https://www.cbc.ca/sports/soccer/alphonso-davies-covid-myocarditis-1.6314813

    Like

  • Cuhdear Bajan;
    Have a look at the latest GIS vaccination statistics. The answer might lie there to some extent.

    Like

  • David; I posted this week’s Covid-19 updates to you this evening.

    Liked by 1 person

  • 🐇/🐰
    “JohnJanuary 9, 2022 8:08 PM

    There you go.

    495X1833/2475~367 vs 342 actual

    Existence of COVID in the population continues to fall.

    If half the tests had been done there may have been 171.

    Can this number get to <100 by Friday as per my prediction?

    Any bets?”

    😂😀😃😂

    Like

  • No one at the Sky Mall testing place for the last couple of days I passed.

    Need to separate out imported cases or numbers are useless.

    We’re looking at two populations, one with high levels of COVID which has to be tested for travel reasons and one without much COVID which is tested as the need arises.

    Meanwhile, over in Western Australia, 7 day averages less than 10, here’s what a population in which only airborne spread looks like.

    Population 2.27 million.

    We should be looking at a graph like this one from Singapore

    Like

  • A total of 536 people, 227 males and 309 females, tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, January 14, from the 2,424 tests carried out by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/15/covid-19-update-536-new-cases-over-5-000-in-isolation/

    Like

  • Hants

    We are testing a second population from the UK mainly and other countries.

    Our positives will level out wherever the weighted average of the rates is in the UK and other countries from which we get tourists.

    As I said before, the ohmigod variant will not spread in Barbados as for the moment it can’t get in the water, the ground has dried out.

    Here’s what I find interesting.

    The clip you posted with the 10K peeps coming through GAIA would suggest far more testing would be done than the roughly 2,500 that are reported from the Best DoSantos Lab.

    Somebody is making a killing on the testing.

    Our GDP should skyrocket in 2022 over 2021 so who ever wins the elections must be licking their chops!!

    Like

  • So Lyall

    Q: How come the ohmigod variant isn’t running rampant through the Barbados population as predicted?

    A: It can’t because the ground dried out!!

    Like

  • John; There’s none so blind …………………………………………

    Like

  • Effective January 7, 2022, travellers are permitted to travel to Barbados with a valid negative Rapid COVID-19 PCR test result done within 1 day prior to arrival in Barbados OR a negative RT-PCR COVID-19 test result done within 3 days prior to arrival.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/arrivecan.html

    Like

  • @Hants

    Does this mean travelers will waltz through immigration and customs with a requirement to be tested?

    Like

  • @rabbit
    I am running you around and not getting a reply.

    According to your mathematical model, there should have been <100 cases on Friday. Where did your model fail?

    Like

  • @Hants

    It was a rhetorical question. Those with comprehension skill will understand why.

    Like

  • @ David,

    ” in collaboration with the Government of Canada.

    Flights will be suspended from January 31, 2021 through April 30, 2021 to the following destinations:

    Cayo Coco, Cancun, Liberia, Montego Bay, Punta Cana, Varadero, Puerto Vallarta, Antigua, Aruba, BARBADOS, Kingston, Mexico City, Nassau, Providenciales, San Jose, and Panama
    For a limited-time, flights to Canada from these destinations will still operate as scheduled, however, these flights may cease operation without notice. For the latest updates and flight information, please visit aircanada.com/routeupdates.

    https://www.aircanada.com/kr/en/aco/home/book/travel-news-and-updates/2021/covid-19-cancellations.html#/

    Like

  • TheOGazertsJanuary 16, 2022 10:53 AM

    @rabbit
    I am running you around and not getting a reply.

    According to your mathematical model, there should have been <100 cases on Friday. Where did your model fail?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Two populations!!

    Impossible to model as one.

    Useless applying math.

    Like

  • If it is possible, it is done. If it is impossible… it will be done. – Evel Knievel

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I can do it with the graphs.

    The local population is seeing 50 to 100 cases.

    The 10K people who come thru GAIA are seeing 450 – 500 cases.

    I’ll explain later.

    Like

  • Here are the protocols for tourists who arrive at GAIA with the ultimate goal of joining a Cruise.

    https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/barbados-updates-cruise-ship-protocols.html

    That’s going to be a significant number out of the 10K daily arrivals.

    Let’s say 30% of the arrivals are Bajans then about 7,000 tourists are coming through GAIA, some of whom will need to be tested.

    It is clear that the vast majority of the roughly 2,500 tests will be tourists.

    Very few will be local and many of the local tests will be from the 40% Bajans.

    Tourists joining a cruise ship here are not tested.

    “Cruise guests arriving in Barbados on the day of their departure for sailings from Bridgetown will be transported through a “sanctuary corridor” via pre-arranged transportation, said George. Guests with a pre-cruise Barbados stay (and Bajans embarking on cruises) will be tested by local authorities at the Bridgetown cruise terminal.

    Cruise passengers disembarking a ship in Bridgetown with plans to depart the same day will be transferred directly to the airport. Depending on their destination, passengers must be tested by their cruise line; testing may be waived if there is no destination requirement.

    Finally, guests who disembark for a post-cruise stay in Barbados must present proof of a negative COVID-19 test result. Disembarking passengers may access testing at the Bridgetown port and proceed to their accommodation to wait for results if their cruise line cannot provide testing.”

    Like

  • I would suggest that of the ~2,500 tests per day, maybe a hundred at most are people who live here and did not arrive through GAIA.

    … and so Grasshopper, there will be far less than 100 local cases.

    Like

  • The clincher is the graphs … but you will have to wait for that.

    If you understand how the numbers are arrived at, you will then be able to appreciate the graphs.

    Like

  • John; Looking forward to seeing how you will make direct linkages between your new hypothesis and real numbers.

    Like

  • Expect if the UK is the major source of the second population that our cases will organise themselves to make our cases/million number match that of the UK.

    Notice the peak will be higher than that caused by the floods.

    This is actually a good sign because it suggests that only a small part of our water supply is susceptible to problems.

    Isolating it should not be a problem in the event of future floods.

    Like

  • This is the most recent graph of Barbados and UK cases/million.

    The lines have met.

    I suspect Barbados numbers should stop rising around here and then follow the UK numbers.

    May be a few oscillations.

    Like

  • We have no control over our case numbers at present.

    They are entirely determined by the testing protocols for our visitors.

    What it does mean is that our cases are extremely low and have little impact on the overall numbers.

    This is good.

    The vast majority of our visitors are either vaccinated or are like my boy Novax, … had COVID already.

    If they test positive they are unlikely to be a drain on our medical resources.

    The local population to a large extent has little interaction with the visitor population and even in cases where they do, the airborne spread by face to face contact is minimal.

    That’s why our local numbers are in double digits, that’s all the airborne spread can support.

    Our local numbers will rise if we get floods again and do not isolate the source that is impacted.

    Like

  • John; Nice Graph! Agree with some of your proposals. Disagree with your attribution of spikes to floods, mimicking of UK progress chart, input of tourists, etc. The basic shape of the graph is common to all biological development (Its usually called the Sigmoid curve or Bell shaped curve), especially with epidemics, and need no new factors to explain it. Thus Spikes, etc., can be more properly attributed to genetic factors of the host / pathogen interaction.

    The incursion by Omicron and its takeover of Delta territory is key to explaining how the Omicron wave has and will develop. But it is possible that its fall will be a bit less steep than its rise. Thus we will probably have a couple weeks as it plateaus and then another 2-4 weeks as it drops to manageable levels.

    You still need to get hard data on how the Covid team actually counts positive tests of tourists.

    I suspect you are on the right track re. future progress of the Omicron towards endemic status.

    Like

  • It happens in too many countries for there to be no link between COVID spread and floods.

    The virus does not spread itself, it needs fluids, air and water.

    Like

  • Right now COVID cases in the local population are well below 100 and in good control.

    Our community spread is practically non existent.

    However our numbers tell a different story because we are testing an entirely different population.

    We should be able like Singapore and Taiwan to separate the two sets of numbers.

    Here is another destination like ours but in the Pacific.

    Bali has more than 80% of its cases imported.

    https://jakartaglobe.id/news/more-than-80-percent-of-coronavirus-cases-in-bali-are-imported/

    There is an element of extreme sloppiness in the publication of our data.

    Like

  • Mauritius has opted to keep its border closed.

    Its numbers are low double digit numbers.

    But they still monitor imported cases.

    https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cemu//eng/sgxw/t1851153.htm

    I still like the gamble the GOB has taken and that is to welcome visitors and promote economic activity.

    But they need to level with us.

    Like

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