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BU Covid Dash – No Need for Panic

Attached are updated charts for the week ending 28th January.  We saw a record number of daily cases (923) on 25th January.  This was followed over the last 3 days with daily cases in the 700’s.  The reproductive R0 numbers increased slowly to just 1.18; Deaths and Daily Official isolations also remained at relatively low…

Attached are updated charts for the week ending 28th January.  We saw a record number of daily cases (923) on 25th January.  This was followed over the last 3 days with daily cases in the 700’s.  The reproductive R0 numbers increased slowly to just 1.18; Deaths and Daily Official isolations also remained at relatively low levels while Home isolations rose precipitately. If these dynamics are maintained there will be no need to panic and fear that the dread worse case prediction of 3,500 peak cases per day is heading our way.  The data also indicates that the Covid-19 team and the Barbados populace in general are continuing to do a good job – Source: Lyall Small

151 responses to “BU Covid Dash – No Need for Panic”

  1. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    MEN! Maybe this would be a good time for me to expound on the results of my findings derived from conversations with middle-age women and my young son’s UNSOLICITED conversations with his young female friends on the topic – FEMALE ORGASMS – How to ensure your wives don’t need to fake ’em!

    One young lady complained, “Imagine HE had all the fun and I got pregnant!”

    She tells my son but she does not tell her partner. She says his ego could not take it, so she fakes it!

    This surely is a pandemic as serious as Covid and just as widespread!

    At least it is -FOR WOMEN!

  2. African Online Publishing Copyright ⓒ 2021. All Rights Reserved Avatar
    African Online Publishing Copyright ⓒ 2021. All Rights Reserved

    Those family members like myself who show allergy or common cold-like symptoms vaccinated or not shake off the Covid

    …this would vary from family to family and of course dependent on underlying and other sickness related symptoms…

  3. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    David,

    WHAT? So are you saying that I should not take what he said about women seriously? I am not “intelligent” enough to understand what you are saying.

    If what he said was what he meant then he cannot be too wise for this epoch.

    If he did not mean what he said, then what was the point in saying it?

    Is he Tron’s identical twin?

  4. David Avatar
    David

    No that is not what the blogmaster is saying. However, ignore the blogmaster, BT will respond in his inimitable manner if he feel inclined.

  5. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Boy, this covid horse dun bolt and there is no catching it. I do not even check the press conferences or the stats. I go about my business while taking recommended precautions.

    Most of us will live and a few of us will die.

    Why panic?

  6. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    Lyallsmall

    Positivity rate = Positive cases / total number of test done.

    If the composition of ‘total number of test done’ becomes skewed because large numbers of ‘negative but hypochondriac worriers’ now have the option of satisfying their fears privately, then it stands to reason that the ‘positive density’ of the population officially tested will increase.
    But feel free to miss the point….

    @ Donna
    Have a good Sunday… and focus on your high level discussions with Wara… We are all inspired.

  7. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    ” As was the case in the immediate aftermath of the Delta wave of COVID-19, Barbadians are being told to brace for a spike in people needing urgent care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) during the current surge of the Omicron variant.”

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/30/cave-expect-spike-people-needing-care-ncds/

  8. 555dubstreet Avatar
    555dubstreet

    “David; Bush Tea was by far the most perceptive and technically endowed poster that BU ever had. His moniker should be protected from iconoclasts.”

    “He is an intelligent man. Too wise for this epoch.”

    He is a Bush Man who wanders off to the wilderness to learn Bush Craft

    his technology is outdated and old

  9. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Bushie,

    There you go trying to tell me what I should focus on.

    You just cannot help telling me what I should do!

    I will focus on what I choose.

    Capiche!

  10. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    If the deaths of unvaccinated pensioners continue at this rate, NIS finances will be fixed by 2030.

    So there is no reason at all to panic about Corona at the moment. On the contrary, everything is in perfect order.

  11. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Wait, David! You think I frighten fuh Bushie????

    Wuh he doan cuss like The Royal Wee and even he doan frighten me.

    Even Franz Fanon and Walter Rodney had their blind spots. I place NO-ONE on such lofty pedestals as you seem to. do.

  12. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Tron,

    Sad but true!

  13. David Avatar
    David

    Two anonymous persons on a blog, how do you factor being scared? Continue to enjoy the day.

  14. John Avatar
    John

    North East hammered.

  15. John Avatar
    John

    Floods too … so we all know what’s going to happen with COVId cases!!!

  16. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    David,

    Most anonymous people do not enjoy being ridiculed in fine fashion on a blog by other anonymous people.

    Bushie and the Royal Wee can be quite cutting.

    But Donna en frighten fuh dem “mout”.

    And yes, now that you two goodly men have told me to enjoy my day, I certainly shall!

    Oh dear!

  17. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Uh begging yuh pardon, David. I got just got one off topic question fuh John.

    I want to know why it is that Donald Trump is promising pardons to all the Antifa thugs and Pelosi puppets who stormed the Capitol on January 6th.

    Murdaaaaaah!

  18. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Well, you did tell me to enjoy my day!

  19. angela coxI Avatar
    angela coxI

    How is it possible here in Barbados that it takes more that thirty days of a person death for the coroner’s office to released the body
    These are real stories with families having to wait more than a month to bury their love ones because the coroner’s office is slow in handling the release of the body
    I know of a family.whose mom died on the 28 th of dec and is awating.the release of the body only to.be told that there are others before them
    Sad

  20. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    A total of 512 people – 225 males and 287 females – tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday, January 29, from the 2,173 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    512 people tested positive from 2,173 tests

  21. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/30/barbados-logs-512-new-cases-of-covid-19/

  22. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    and in Canada.

  23. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    What is the total for the week in barbados

  24. John Avatar
    John

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/covid-fatality-rate-set-to-resemble-flu-figures-as-reinfections-are-added-to-daily-statistics/ar-AATiAIJ?ocid=msedgntp

  25. John Avatar
    John

    HantsJanuary 30, 2022 4:55 PM

    A total of 512 people – 225 males and 287 females – tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday, January 29, from the 2,173 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    512 people tested positive from 2,173 tests

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    There you go, falling like the UK!!

  26. John Avatar
    John

    UK reversing itself on mandatory vaccinations!!

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/u-turn-on-mandatory-covid-vaccinations-for-nhs-and-social-care-workers/ar-AATjbjM?ocid=msedgntp

  27. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    JASON HOLDER…….AWESOME!!!!

  28. John Avatar
    John

    DonnaJanuary 30, 2022 3:46 PM

    Uh begging yuh pardon, David. I got just got one off topic question fuh John.

    I want to know why it is that Donald Trump is promising pardons to all the Antifa thugs and Pelosi puppets who stormed the Capitol on January 6th.

    Murdaaaaaah!
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You mean this?

    Sounds pretty balanced and sensible to me.

    You should really take the time to listen before shooting off your mouth wild and turning yourself in a poppet.

    Man, Trump sure drawing the crowds and he isn’t running for anything.

  29. 555dubstreet Avatar
    555dubstreet

    Bushman is a legend in his lunchtime
    I was joking

  30. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    There could be a lot of spreading in the vicinity of Kensington Oval.

  31. 555dubstrret Avatar
    555dubstrret

    The Spook Who Sat By The Door

    There are 2 or 3 black men spread out in the Trump crowd who stand out like black polka dots on a white background.

    They have “Blacks for Trump” T-Shirts merchandise. Why don’t the rest of the crowd the vast white majority have “Whites for Trump” shirts.

  32. Sargeant Avatar
    Sargeant

    How is it possible here in Barbados that it takes more that thirty days of a person death for the coroner’s office to released the body
    That is an under reported story or should it be un reported? The authorities offer up various excuses to the family members “the person performing the autopsy in Trinidad” etc. The delay was so long that a family member had to leave after spending considerable time in Barbados but no autopsy hence no funeral.

    Maybe the Minister in charge of the QEH will get it right.

  33. GP Avatar
    GP

    HantsJanuary 30, 2022 7:31 PM
    JASON HOLDER…….AWESOME!!!!

    and UNDERATED and UNFAIRED.
    wish he would play more for self than for team — he would have better results and approval……but he is a gentleman

  34. GP Avatar
    GP

    How is it possible here in Barbados that it takes more that thirty days of a person death for the coroner’s office to released the body
    VERY POSSIBLE
    AND VERY EASY
    POST PORTEMS ARE NOT EMERGENCIES AS I TRIED TO TEACH ONE OF THE MEDICAL ILLITERATTI ON BU
    MOST DEAD PEOPLE ARE NOT LIKELY TO DIE AGAIN UNTIL THEY ARE SENTENCED AT THE GREAT WHITE THRONE JUDGEMENT AND BE ETERNALLY SEPARATED FROM GOD=> REAL TRUE DEATH

    How is it possible here in Barbados that it takes more that thirty days of a person death for the coroner’s office to released the body
    INDEED HE WILL WHEN THEY PAY MORE PATHOLOGISTS LOL LOL EASY SO

    I AM NOT AN ECONOMIST BUT IN THE ONE SUCH COURSE I DID I WAS TAUGHT THAT YOU EITHER BUY GUNS OR BUTTER
    WELL APPLY THAT PRINCIPLE HERE
    YOU EITHER HAVE A FEW PATHOLOGISTS OR YOU HAVE LOTS OF MINISTERS OF GOVERNMENT
    LOL LOL EASY SO
    Q E D

  35. David Avatar
    David

    Covid cases ‘more than reported’

    THERE MAY BE more COVID-19positive cases in Barbados than what is being reported.
    This is according to senior lecturer in public health and epidemiology at the University of the West Indies (UWI), Dr Natasha Sobers-Grannum.
    She said what was being reported was only a third or quarter of the true results, adding that the modelling done by UWI’s George Alleyne Chronic Disease Research Centre only represented the number of people who will go for testing.
    “When the model projects 3 500, it’s not projecting the numbers that are going to test positive on a particular day because the numbers that test positive are the tip of the iceberg,” she said during yesterday’s Brasstacks Sunday call-in radio programme on Starcom Network.
    During a national press conference on January 5, it was announced that by month-end Barbados could be faced with a COVID-19 surge peaking at 3 500 cases daily over a six- to sevenweek period as a result of the Omicron variant.
    “The numbers that test positive are only those people who come forward,” said Sobers-Grannum. “We know that . . . for every one person that tests positive there are at least two to three [or] as much as four others who are positive and have not come forward.
    “They either don’t come forward because they are asymptomatic and don’t know, and that is a vast majority . . . or there are people who are symptomatic and they don’t come forward for testing.
    “So when we see a value of 923 as we had a few days ago, you can easily multiply that by three and say that those are the number of the cases for the day. This is not a Barbados-specific thing. It is a known thing, when the number of actual cases in the background is a lot higher than what we see in terms of testing.”
    Sobers-Grannum said models were created every seven days, or three to five, because of the uncertainty associated with COVID-19. She said models learn from the trends of the
    previous week and then make projections based on that, pointing out that the projections were not necessarily impacted by any particular events such as cricket or rallies.
    She added that based on the data the research centre was assessing, she did not expect any more significant increases beyond the recent 923 peak. (SB)


    Source: Nation

  36. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

  37. 555dubstreet Avatar
    555dubstreet

    Lyall

    Thanks for the response which I missed
    I appreciate the jury is still out and all that

    but are you saying biowarfare is a negatory
    biolabs store strains for research purposes
    which excludes releasing into populations

    your response will again be appreciated

  38. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    Where is our official raw data and analysis of that data?

    Model projections are fancy words a guess. Me with the limited data I have access to can probably make a better projection than the experts.

    With Barbados being the only country in the world to isolate all known covid cases in a government facility policy from the start, we should have the best data set in the entire world.

    We should be publishing studies based on all the medical data we have accumulated from all the cases.

  39. 555dubstreet Avatar
    555dubstreet

    Seems like Covid caught Omnicron which is the cure
    the remedy for the agony in the body
    like punany

  40. John Avatar
    John

    Critical AnalyzerJanuary 31, 2022 6:28 AM

    Where is our official raw data and analysis of that data?

    Model projections are fancy words a guess. Me with the limited data I have access to can probably make a better projection than the experts.

    With Barbados being the only country in the world to isolate all known covid cases in a government facility policy from the start, we should have the best data set in the entire world.

    We should be publishing studies based on all the medical data we have accumulated from all the cases.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    … and they wonder why adults won’t get vaccinated like good little children.

  41. John Avatar
    John

    “So when we see a value of 923 as we had a few days ago, you can easily multiply that by three and say that those are the number of the cases for the day. This is not a Barbados-specific thing. It is a known thing, when the number of actual cases in the background is a lot higher than what we see in terms of testing.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Two entirely different populations are being tested.

    One is here for a week or so and has to be tested before returning home.

    It is compulsory.

    The other is local and presents as needed for testing.

    It is a known fact in tourist destinations, Bali for example, that the positives in the visitor population is more than 80% of the total positives.

    Taiwan has very few local cases and most are imported, likewise Singapore.

    Bali, Taiwan and Singapore is far more advanced in data gathering and presentation than we are.

    We seem to want to hide the obvious fact.

    The three positives who are missed in the visitor population leave Barbados and become somebody else’s problem.

    In any case, it is reasonable to say that few if any of the visitor population actually caught it here.

    More likely were infected after their compulsory test two days before flying from contaminated water or airborne spread.

    If we want to get the visitor number to ZERO, we can do so easily, just shut the borders.

    Our local cases are below 100.

    The UWI projections are guesses as CA points out for most models.

    However, we know that most of the tests are done on visitors returning home and are compulsory.

    A simple fact the modelers do not appear to have realised.

  42. John Avatar
    John

    Because we are testing mostly visitors we are sampling a transient population.

    https://www.travelagentcentral.com/destinations/barbados-sets-tourist-arrival-record-for-2017

    “The United Kingdom was once again the top producer of arrivals to Barbados with a 33.5 percent market share. Arrivals from this market were flat compared to 2016, totaling 222,322. The United States followed, contributing 28.4 percent of business with 188,970 arrivals for the year. Canada contributed 12.8 percent of the business, and recorded an increase of 7.9 percent or 85,209 arrivals.

    Of special note is the United States, who, while being the second-highest producer of business, grew by a whopping 11.7 percent over 2016. The United States’ 2017 performance was the highest for that market in three decades – since contributing 175,093 arrivals in 1987.”

    Our positivity ratio during tourist season is determined by the weighted average of positivities in principally the UK, USA, Canada and Europe … simple common sense.

  43. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Boy oh boy! Women are not logical at all!

    I am so sorry that I was not eligible to nominate the logical right wing looney man John Knox to run in his constituency.

    We need more men in leadership positions. There are at present, too many illogical women.

    Thing is, I would bet my life that more illogical women believe in Bushie’s BBE warning system than the logical men.

    My poor little brain cannot comprehend this logic!

    Oh dear!

  44. David Avatar
    David

    Today’s front page story quotes government’s spokesman on Covid hinting of a relaxing of Covid 19 protocols in response to public criticism of double standards re: spectators who attended recent cricket matches at Kensington and individuals at political meetings where protocols were not adhered to.

  45. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    David,

    They could as well. This horse dun bolt! Omicron cannot be contained. Word is that we are all going to get it.

    Some of us will live and some of us will die

    Might as well get it over with. Most of the world is doing just that.

  46. GP Avatar
    GP

    WOMEN WERE MADE AND DESIGNED EXPRESSLY AND PARTICULARLY TO BE “HELPMEETS” FOR MEN AS IS CLEARLY TAUGHT IN GENESIS 2V9 I THINK IT IS ….OR 19.

    HOWEVER, TODAY HOW CAN WE EXPECT THE WOMEN TO MEET WHEN THERE IS NO HELP AROUND?
    WHY YUH THINK THE WOMEN TEKING OVER IN CHURCH IN CHAPEL AND HERE THERE AND EVERYWHERE?
    THE MEN ARE NO HELP.
    SO IN DOING THERE JOB AS MEET (NOTE I DID NOT SAY MEAT) THEY ARE NOW SUPERCEDING THE MEN.
    WE HAVE A COUPLE OF GENERATIONS OF INFERIOR LACKADASICAL INEPT WISHY WASHY MEN WHO ARE NO HELP WHATSOEVER, AND YET WE EXPECT THE WOMEN TO MEET?

    WELL THEY ARE INDEED “MEETING” AS THEY OUGHT BUT THEIR MEETING SEEMS TOO MUCH BECAUSE THE OTHER SIDE THE HELP MEN ARE NOT STANDING UP AND DOING THEIR JOBS
    JUST THINK ABOUT IT

  47. 555dubstreet Avatar
    555dubstreet

    Different countries are different some are backwards some are forwards
    In some men are behind woman
    Women are interesting and wilder
    Men are retarded and pure boring

  48. GP Avatar
    GP

    EVERY DAY THE BU ILLITERATI PONTIFICATE ABOUT COVID
    SOME EVEN HARP MUCH ON STATISTICS
    IN THE 48 YEARS I HAVE BEEN IN MEDICINE AS STUDENT PRACTIONER AND TEACHER, I HAVE NOT READ ANYTHING ANYWHERE ABOUT STATISTICS OR EPDEMIOLOGISTS DECIDING THE COURSE OF THERAPY, OR BEING THERAPY.

    FROM THE DAYS OF GALEN, THE FATHER OF MEDICINE, DISEASE HAS BEEN TREATED BY DOCTORS, WHO HAVE USED WHAT EVER MEDICAMENTS THAT THEY HAVE FOUND TO EFFECTIVELY COMBAT ILLNESSES.

    ONLY BETZPAENIC MORONS THINK THAT STAISTICIANS POLITICIANS AND POLITICIANS CAN OR WILL TREAT DISEASE
    AND SO, WE HAVE AN ALTERED AND PREPARED CORONAVIRUS BECOMING A SCOURGE, WHEN ALL THAT WAS NEEDED WAS TO ATTACK THE VIRUS BY THE KNOWN WAY OF EFFECTING A CURE…BY GIVING
    THE RIGHT DRUG
    IN THE RIGHT DOSE
    TO THE RIGHT PATIENT
    AT THE RIGHT TIME
    FOR THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF TIME
    AS WAS DONE AT THE INCEPTION OF THE DISEASE SUCCESSFULLY, AND CONTINUES IN THIS VEIN WHERE SANE SOLID SENSIBLE SCHOLARS OF THE SCIENCE DO THE RIGHT THING

    NOW CHAPS YOU MAY CONTINUE TO PONTIFICATE IN YOUR IGNORANCE AND PROVIDE MUCH MIRTH AND TALK ABOUT HOW MANY ARE TESTED OR OR ARE INFECTED OR DIED

  49. 555dubstreet Avatar
    555dubstreet

    “EVERY DAY THE BU ILLITERATI PONTIFICATE ABOUT COVID”

    John and GP seem to hog these threads like 2 stalkers always repeating the same things over and over

  50. Sargeant Avatar
    Sargeant

    @Donna
    I want to know why it is that Donald Trump is promising pardons to all the Antifa thugs and Pelosi puppets who stormed the Capitol on January 6th.
    +++++++
    Why don’t you stop lobbing kryptonite at Superman John? Yuh see how far he ran from that statement? It was a typical John response as in “far be it from me to talk about Antifa thugs and Pelosi poppets but leh me post a snippet of El Presidente’s speech in Texass.

    Here is a slightly expanded clip

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