Voter turnout by constituency extracted from caribbeansignal.com compliments of blogmaster Amit. In the euphoria of a BLP victory the government should be concerned at the diminishing interest by Barbadians to vote in elections since the 70s when the turnout hovered at mid-70s.
Voter turnout by constituency extracted from caribbeansignal.com compliments of blogmaster Amit. In the euphoria of a BLP victory the government should be concerned at the diminishing interest by Barbadians to vote in elections since the 70s when the turnout hovered at mid-70s.
Donna January 22, 2022 12:39 PM
“The answer is that voting is a waste of time because politicians are all the same – UNTRUSTWORTHY AND ALL ABOUT THEMSELVES.”
This mindset isn’t helping any. I mean you can say that about some (or most) politicians but they can be others working behind the scenes. You may not see an MP that is a MOF every week but if he he part of a Cabinet helping to bring our credit rating up, helping the poor get their $1300 reverse tax credit in a timely manner, giving us VAT free holidays at least he is helping all Barbadians and not only his constituency
Thanks Amit. I stand corrected.
I thought the population of Barbados was around 275K and was doubting your 266K.
From Google I learnt that our population was estimated at 301K in 2021 with 25K age 0-14. Your number appears very reasonable.
If Santa is nearby, tell him some want to see B and D columns.
—-*xx—–
I cannot resist this..
It looks as if Mia already has 24 of the required 80K.
@DLPTV
Here is what I am looking for. The smallest B minus D constituency value in 2022. If it is larger than 500, I will make a half hearted argument. If it is around 300, I will be (in the words ofJ2) be ‘scratching for votes’. I ignore all your references to 2018.
Don’t tell me
“The CURRENT numbers in isolation would not have affected the seat result’
Please give me the vote numbers or a link and let me see for myself.
The low voter turn out is disturbing but what is more disturbing is the election day practice of buying votes in all constituencies. Talk on the ground that this is real. The young people do not care that at one point in our history you had to own land to vote, now $100.00 can buy a vote. Part of that low percentage came from that sickening act. It is hard to prove because no-one will come forward to say that they received money to vote because it is illegal.
That any sensible person would not refer to Caswell as independent beggar belief.
@Watchman
There is a red flag between Caswell and the supreme leader for a long time, so if the President elect Caswell to the Senate, the supreme leader will find a way to get rid of the upper house along with this president
+++++++
I didn’t pay much attention to the DLP’s manifesto but one of its promises was an “Elected Senate”, that could be one way to get rid of a recalcitrant Senator
Northern,
I am a former teacher and youth worker.
Besides which, when you chat up random old men they run their hand up your leg.
‘Would you opine in your country references the citizenry is generally inclined to greater advocacy compared to their counterpart in Barbados? […] In other words what are the causal factors behind voter turnout in those countries and to what extent are there compensating avenues for citizens to hold governments accountable.”…… @David, of course they are simply because the risk-rewards ae greater and more importantly the lack of homogeneity which we basically have in Bim.
The principal causal factors for protest are well known: race/ethnicity, religious differences and deeply rooted ideological convictions… none of which engage Bajans at a level to cause continued anger and agitation…
So just one topical reference in this brevity: Reflect on the then raging debates fueled by Dean Crichlowe on the religious purity test re homosexuality… that was evidenced with the rather self-defeating argument of ‘no condoms’ at Glendairy; strident opposition to cruise ships docking with with gay guests etc. and all that… despite of course the reality of gay men in our cabinet (prior)… the point there is that for all the NOISE then, Bajans elected folks who were known as gay even as they ‘protested’. Definitely more a contrived PROTEST community compared to the folks up north and in Europe.
And yes again we do NOT effect our avenues to hold our govt accountable other than at the ballot box. We really never have and that will not change in any incremental way. Something significant needs to happen where the change is FORCED on us. What/ how that will be… I have no idea….but this is as good a time as any for that forced act to materialize!
@Donna,
Your assertions has puzzled me for some time vi must break my silence.
Would random old men take such liberties?
Wouldn’t having wives and daughters modify their behavior?
Wouldn’t fear of an angry boyfriend, husband or relative be at the back of their mind?
What of fear if the law?
People need to calm down and stop being Drama Queens
there is no constitutional crisis
just an old redundant constitution
that needs replacing by level heads
what are the allegations of vote buying in 2022
sounds like more goss
@ Vincent Codrington January 22, 2022 1:43 PM
(Unquote):
It would be a very brave man or woman who will sacrifice his future political career to do what Rev Atherly did last time. Nobody thank him then. They even vilified him. The constitution says nothing about the necessity for a leader of the opposition in the lower House. Let it be this time around. The Electorate has spoken more emphatically for the secound time.
(Unquote).
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oh!
Is the use of the phrase “There Shall be a Leader of the Opposition” no longer implicit of the necessity for an elected member to serve in that capacity?
Aren’t there specific functions which ‘mandate’ the involvement of the Leader of the Opposition in the decision-making process before laws and edicts become Constitutionally valid and binding?
If the people’s Parliament can do without a ‘Leader of the Opposition’ in its lower chamber it can certainly function similarly and just as effectively without A Senate.
Why duplicate a mere rubber-stamping body at the already overburdened taxpayers’ expense?
Do the people have a say in the selection of members to the Senate?
In the absence of a Constitutionally appointed Leader of the Opposition (LoO) the President will have to fill that breach and perform the duties of the LoO, either directly or indirectly, as set out in the existing Westminster-based Constitution.
@TheO
Before you jump down the🐇 hole 😜
Have you forgotten when the Caricom squatting took off?
When the only new roads led to areas to ‘promote squatting’.
So the population may be higher than an official count….but….it may appear both sides have a hand in this 🍪 jar?
Donna
Wait. Yah tellin’ muh you is accustomed going much younger…lol
You go girl!
None ah dis subtle old man bad behaviour, pose yah question, get on with it or be gone! And remember, effin my son home, you is a plumber, and come back another time.
The case for proportional representation is very strong.😃
Not voting – 18 seats
BLP – 8 seats
DLP – 4 seats
As leader of the not voting party, how do I get my supporters to vote …
@ David BU:
How about making voting compulsory except for those who are incapable because of sickness, either physical or mental, or absence due to travel?
How about using the upcoming opportunity of a revised Constitution to reflect the expectations of the more sophisticated (so-called educated) citizens like electronic voting the same way the current administration is ‘talking’ digitizing the economy and wider society?
The only concern about this way forward is the security and confidentiality surrounding the option of electronic voting over the internet.
But isn’t there a major push towards on-line banking and digital payments system for the ordinary man with access to a computer/cellphone/internet?
If Bajans want to maintain their democratic rights to select the government of their choice which reflects the expectations of the majority of citizens then they must be prepared to exercise equal responsibility by participating in the achievement of that ultimate political objective.
@Miller
The blogmaster is all for radical reform. Let us wish for good national debate if it comes on the new constitution.
I (imputed) gave the 3 missing constituencies, the lowest percentage in the table … 36% each.
I used this to compute a total score and then get a new average percentage 42.6
I expect the final percentage to be in this region, if the numbers given do not change or the non reporting constituencies do not have ‘new lows’.
@ David January 22, 2022 5:49 PM
Radical reform resulting in meaningful changes in the economy and wider society must be undertaken if Barbados is going to survive as a viable state with the potential (still) to punch above its (fly) weight in the grand scheme of global things dictated by the international heavyweights.
You cannot promote Barbados to the modern Western countries using the Welcome Stamp programme while having laws on the books which reflect the ‘hypocritical’ moral views of some political systems found in places like Afghanistan and Uganda.
Reconciling numbers in the rumours dong the rounds
If Voting lists contain people who have left the realm or earthly plane
then 100% votes would not be possible
If people were paid to vote (albeit in secret)
then voting turnout would be a lot higher
It is reported elsewhere voter turnout is 45%.
Kiki…you would have to be on the ground to get the full story.
DavidJanuary 22, 2022 7:10 PM
It is reported elsewhere voter turnout is 45%
Xx xc
The fact being the numbers being low remains a poke in the eyes of govt and politicians
In.simple terms
Democracy became a hot mess on Wednesday 19th Jan 2022
“Kiki…you would have to be on the ground to get the full story.”
are you on the ground
or have an ear to the ground
I thought you were a bbd leaver
both…you will need to speak to the people who were right there and saw the whole mess play out…they can give you a better timeline of events, it’s no secret and no one is trying to hide anything, this is a road that can lead to violence, and is cause for concern…let them keep it up..
TheOGazertsJanuary 22, 2022 5:46 PM
The case for proportional representation is very strong.😃
Not voting – 18 seats
BLP – 8 seats
DLP – 4 seats
As leader of the not voting party, how do I get my supporters to vote …
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The NDP has returned to haunt the scene as the NVP.
There are pros and cons to both first past the post and proportional representation.
It seems buying votes
and taking the money
are both illegal
who would have thunk it
All you have to do to appreciate just how low the turnout was and was expected to be is to reckon off the small stretches of roads that got resurfaced in the various constituencies.
I saw COW Williams working on one at 7:00pm the night before the elections opposite the service Station in My Lord’s Hill.
Then there was the Pilgrim Place stretch and the Providence stretch to the ABC highway.
I am sure others can add more.
The BLP pulled out all the stops and the afternoon of the election its constituency office started phoning around to beg people to vote.
The only thing I did not see was corn beef.
Bajans have developed more sophisticated tastes.
David BU
A few days ago you posted a newspaper article which carried some comments by Lucille Moe , who amongst other comments – stated that she is afraid of Mia Mottley.
Would you by any chance since the general election results of Wednesday 19 2022……know if Lucille Moe is still scared of Mia Mottley ?
I ask you since you are a close confidante of Lucille Moe !
@David January 22, 2022 1:35 PM
How about President Mason reappointing Caswell to the Senate?
I see you looking for another election to be called or the President to get fired or assassinated before she remember to stop referring to herself as GG. I believe Caswell forced her hand into calling the election with his 200% justified strike action.
I also don’t see all the hullabaloo about not having an opposition in Parliament. The voting will still go the same result with or without an opposition as they can’t change anything with all the parliamentary theatrics before they laugh at each other and the electorate during lunch breaks.
The president should offer senate seats to true independents who represent various sectors and interest groups and NONE to loser political parties. We are getting to comfortable with rewarding mediocrity and participation trophies. NO CONSOLATION PRIZES in this election race, WIN OR GO HOME.
Social media, blogs, press briefings and press releases are avenues available to the DLP to get their opposition messages out and they will be forced to learn how to speak respectfully in public lest they get sued for defamation without the parliamentary privilege shield.
Ms. Mockley’s ostensible reason for calling the election was to unit a divided country behind one leader.
The election has proven beyond all shadow of a doubt that the country is divided not in half but as 1/3 to 2/3.
… unite …!!
Will it function?
@john
With all your numbers, I find it odd in 2016, in the US, with a 55% voter turnout, DJT got 46%, and it never bothered you he ruled with approval of 25% of the adult population?
Even with (total incomplete) seems +/- 43% voted, and Ms Mockley got 65%+, so she is at LEAST 28%, and it’s bothering you?
Two different systems.
One is a Republic with an elected Congress and an elected Senate as checks and balances, the other a Parliamentary Democracy.
Didn’t you know that?
Somebody please explain these elementary principles to Frankie!!
…. plus we all know the elections in the US are rigged!!
Both the Democrats and Republicans say that,
“The election has proven beyond all shadow of a doubt that the country is divided not in half but as 1/3 to 2/3.”
Your thinking gets duller and duller every year and your comments are hooks for more nonsense aka old man trolling hijacking threads with warped garbage theories about Covid Conspiracies Trump and Quakers running for days.
But, everyone knows political cliques and factions are groups of careerists and business interests sponsors who look for votes in numbers from the poor man and woman during campaigning making false promises of free buckets of fried chicken biscuits and gravy which never materialise in this life. In other words people are wary of buying into the same old bullshit again.
The country seems to be divided into the bothered and the not bothered. The not bothered are too complacent to be revolutionaries.
Never make a politician (aaa-aaah) grant you a favour; (doo-doo-doo-doo) They will always want (aaa-aaah) to control you forever, eh! (forever, forever)
Bob Marley and The Wailers – Revolution
To vote or not to vote
That is the question
Another election issue causing mass non-voting was there was a secret about revealing the secrets where it was insinuated that Barbados is struggling to keep it’s head above water and there was a built in implicit assumption that people would be signing into an agreement for hardship and penury with their heads underwater in the depths of the great abyss stuck in the deep sea wandering in all directions, right, left, length, forward, backward, and down and many will be broken.
xx
A Sunday ramble
Knowledge itself was concealed for over a thousand years before it was allowed to be found, and a few righteous people could start studying it. In our times, we have access to secrets that only a few knew hundreds of years ago. Since we are getting closer to the great revelation of Light and the Final Redemption, we can see more ‘details.’ We should thank the Creator and the Energy of the Universe for bringing us closer to this enlightening knowledge.
Analysis of BLP’s second clean sweep
By Peter Wickham Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley led the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) to a second clean sweep last Wednesday and in so doing further etched her name in the political record books of Barbados and the Caribbean.
There is no local comparison for two consecutive clean sweeps and we would therefore need to look to Grenada as a comparative base. Like Mottley, Prime Minister Keith Mitchell secured all the seats in a 2013 change-election, which was followed by a similar victory in 2018. In both instances, the second clean sweep is more impressive than the first, simply because the first is based on a promise, while the second is based on the population’s clinical review of the government’s performance and an acknowledgement that it has done well regarding these promises.
In the Caribbean, the trend has been that government’s popularity declines after the first term and instances where an incumbent retains or improves on its popularity are rare. In both Barbados and Grenada, the obvious factors were a popular government combined with an equally unpopular alternative. One point of comparative interest is the marginal swing in both Barbados and Grenada.In Barbados the BLP recorded a -4 per cent swing, while in Grenada the swing was a positive 0.4 per cent, suggesting that in both places public opinion was statistically identical in both elections. Although a statistically insignificant negative swing is technically a loss of political support, in the cases of both Grenada and Barbados the previous election presented a high “bar” in that the weakest seats would have required negative swings of 12 per cent (St George North West) and 7 per cent (St John) did not materialise.
Figure 1: Barbados Election 2022 (Preliminary) The individual analysis of the Barbados election presents several interesting observations, presented in the appended chart. The levels of party support have not moved significantly between elections, with the BLP continuing to record a historic high and the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) a historic low and neither moving within a statistically significant margin. At the constituency level, Table 01 presents a micro analysis of the three seats identified as marginal by CADRES previously. This selection was based on the swing needed to facilitate change and the fact that it was within the range of possibility based on historic patterns.
Among these, St Philip North performed best and exceeded the swing required to capture the seat; however, the DLP’s candidate lost as his improvement was shared with third-party candidates.
In the case of St John, the DLP’s candidate there fell marginally short and the St Michael North West candidate recorded a negative swing which tells a very different story. Clearly, the seats identified as marginal improperly captured North West, which was less loyal to the DLP and more to the former candidate Christopher Sinckler. Sinckler’s departure therefore meant that Ryan Walters started from further behind than it appeared on the surface. This observation has therefore introduced an important caveat that would need to be considered regarding the future analysis of North West and similarly personalised constituencies.
constituencies.
Table 01: Marginalhttps://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/fig1.png
Constituency of this election significantly fallen Marginal Constituencies reported that more than the It would appear Constituency politics aside, the major analytical point election would be the voter turnout, which has fallen on this occasion. The electoral office 266 330 people were eligible to vote, which is the 258 901 that were eligible in 2018. appear that 46 per cent of these persons voted this is a preliminary indication that does not several factors, it is alarmingly low and certainly the lowest ever in our history. The 2022 level is 23 per cent lower than the 2018 was itself historically low, and this prompts a regarding reasons.
and while this contemplate several most certainly participation level level, which was conversation regarding Table 02: COVID Table 2 is an presented that Barbados and previous elections of the impact be more contagious, COVID Elections and Voter Turnout an updated version of one previously that includes the most recent data from and reflects a favourable comparison with elections as it relates to turnout. Regardless of the Omicron variant that is reported to contagious, the turnout was not significantly different from The Bahamas election that was held during the era of the Delta variant. Certainly, the fact that Barbados was able to contain the slide in participation to -23 per cent suggests that we did better bringing out voters than The Bahamas did.
The most instructive aspect of this data, however, relates to the impact of COVID-19 and voter turnout on the actual outcome. The conventional wisdom that is peddled by some analysts suggests that a low turnout favours the incumbent, and this is why the BLP did so well. There is, however, ample evidence that this is untrue since we have seen low turnouts in various places that have had different impacts on the incumbent. Strikingly, The Bahamas decline ushered in a landslide against the incumbent, while a similar reduction maintained the incumbent in Barbados. The suggestion that COVID-19 is itself responsible for voter apathy can therefore be rejected on the basis of evidence to the contrary. Certainly, COVID-19 might have inspired people to stay away from the polls, but it seems clear that it goes beyond the pandemic itself, and to this end it is important to consult public opinion in Barbados during January of 2022.https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/fig2.png
Figure 2: Intention to Vote According to Party Support (January 2022) In January of 2022 CADRES executed a series of constituency-based surveys in 15 of the constituencies and the client has now agreed to the release of the data, which will be presented more comprehensively next week. On this occasion, however, attention is drawn to a single crosstabulation which compares preferred party with the likelihood that the person would vote on January 19.
CADRES has always noted that the decision not to vote is often made last minute; however, this presents an idea of how people were thinking in the lead-up to the election. The cumulative data demonstrates that in these 15 more marginal constituencies there was a positive correlation regarding the disinclination to vote and opposition to the BLP.
Simply put, persons who supported the BLP were more likely to vote, while persons who did not were either sure they would not vote or were inclined to stay at home. Clearly, these persons’ decision to remain at home was as much an expression of their political opinion as would have been the case if they opted to vote for the DLP. As such, it would be logical to consider the non-participation of DLP supporters as a major factor influencing voter apathy and seek to understand why they were not motivated.
The final point that needs to be made regarding voter turnout is this concern regarding party popularity or the suggestion that this Government is “unpopular” on account of the fact that the low participation, in addition to the votes against it, amounts to well-over 50 per cent.
The analysis is not untrue but somewhat pedestrian since it ignores a reality frequently discussed by CADRES.
In reality, Barbados has never had a truly popular government, if popularity is defined as the capture of more than 50 per cent of the total registered votes. Moreover, the popularity data demonstrates that the current BLP Government is no more or less popular than the 2013, 2008 and 1991 DLP Governments.
Similarly, it is as popular as BLP Governments in 2003 and 1994, which makes a nonsense of suggestions that this Government is peculiarly unpopular in any way.
Peter W. Wickham is a political consultant and a director of Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES).
The dissent within the dlp.was very strong
Strong enough to.send a message on 19th Jan 2022 to the party membership
Strong enough and in effect as throwing a lighted torch with an effect to burning the dlp house down
Hard to envision ranking party members .ignorning these voices
Voices who stood strong and firm against Verla as President and voices who were defiant and bold enough to.withhold their vote on Jan 19th
What a rift and a baffled message to mash up and brek up
Is the figure of 266,300 eligible voters correct?
@Sargeant
Hopefully the numbers will be confirmed next week. It seems we are subjected to working with partial reporting for the moment.
@David, the Wickham article seems to be missing wordd due I presume to the pasting but the thrust was understood and it should be keen reading for all those who he would describe as “pedestrian” in their analysis.
The key take away that his well defined argument makes and others have already made here are 2 things: 1) this election (sans covid issues) is no more an unpopular mandate than many previous elections … when in fact it clearly is seen that many past admins governed from a victory of NO resounding majority often marginally so…. and 2) while low turnouts are troubling … the fact is that incumbents are just as likely to suffer from them as the oppositions …and the corollary to that being high turnouts are as problematic for either group.
His confirmation that our negative swing here as compared to the positive swing in the Grenada 30-0 was statically and practically the same thing simply validates the point also made earlier in the blog: our low turnout is NOT some grave harbinger of Bajan doom.
Like him or not but his analysis is professional and based on data not BS.
BTW I read the post from that strange person @AC and I now firmly believe that they are an insidious plant simply coming here to ‘mek foolish talk’ …
This was amazing : …
“The dissent within the dlp.was very strong
Strong enough to.send a message on 19th Jan 2022 to the party membership
Strong enough and in effect as throwing a lighted torch with an effect to burning the dlp house down”
Must be a nefarious agent againt the DLP.
SMH.
@Dee Word
We agree to disagree. The blogmaster sides with the via voter apathy is more real in these times.
Dee word
Must be a nefarious agent againt the DLP.
SMH.
Question
When dissent is so strong within an organization that one side decides it will withhold support during election for the organization or party
Isn’t that like throwing a flaming torch to burn down a house
Interesting to see Dr. Yearwood put his hand up to participate in a post election radio show this morning.
@Sargeant and @David
The number of electors that I used in my turn-out post (266,330) is the number I obtained from a file from a trusted source. Peter Wickham also mentions this number in the analysis that David posted above. The same file (that I used) also allowed me to calculate the number of eligible electors per constituency for my turn-out post (which then summed up to 266,330).
For whatever reason, this figure (266,330) differs from the total electors stated in the Preliminary List (264,940). That list, i.e. the Prelim List, was generated on Dec 28, 2021 at 01:59:49 (recall that the list was published on GIS website and then taken down).
Furthermore, another document that I recently obtained from trusted sources, with the heading “January 2022 Preliminary Data” with columns and values including things like: Total Registered, Increase in Total Registrations, Total Voting, Electoral Turnout, Total Valid Votes Cast, BLP Votes, and so on and so forth, had a Total Registered count = 248,815.
So we have:
“Preliminary List” posted by GIS = 264,940
Total from my source (and the value that Wickhamn used) = 266,330
Total Registered (assuming this means # of Electors) from “January 2022 Preliminary Data” file = 248,815
I am hoping that the EBC will publish detailed data very soon and clear it all up.
Back to turn-out, I have numbers for Ch. Ch. West Central. It seems that while the The Nation website did not update that constituency on their website (as I type this), they did have a graphic posted on their FB Page for Ch. Ch. W.C. However, data is still not there for St. Joseph and St. Thomas (on both the Nation’s FB and Nation’s website).
I’ve updated my post accordingly: https://www.caribbeansignal.com/2022/01/21/barbados-elections-2022-results-by-constituency/
In summary, based on results for 28/30 constituencies:
Average turn-out: 40%
Lowest turn-out: Ch. Ch. West (36%)
Highest turn-out: St. Andrew, St. Lucy, and St. Philip West (48%)
Kind regards,
Amit Uttamchandani
http://www.caribbeansignal.com
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