Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 14th Jan 2022. I’ve omitted the Vaccinations chart and added a reproductive number chart which gives some idea about the rate of reproduction of the virus and a daily official isolations chart to get some indication of the position re. incidence of persons sickened by the Virus. Total isolations are increasing gradually but Official Isolations are going down slowly and the Reproductive rates are actually decreasing at this stage. Deaths are still relatively low. The charts seem to be indicating that we might yet escape the dire UWI model predictions. So far, so good.
Lyall Small
BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers
Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 14th Jan 2022. I’ve omitted the Vaccinations chart and added a reproductive number chart which gives some idea about the rate of reproduction of the virus and a daily official isolations chart to get some indication of the position re. incidence of persons sickened by the Virus. …
189 responses to “BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers”
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Hants;
Also, How many tourists in Barbados tested positive for Covid-19 out of the totals reported for the last 10 days?
and How many were or are in official Isolation? -
@LyallS … that’s why politics is so frustrating, interesting and ruthlessly forged to suit a desired agenda.
When you say “It might actually be some sort of malpractice, if test data from transients were somehow allowed to taint our Covid-19 statistics …” … don’t you perceive that it would be scandalous for the BLP political operatives to provide newly refreshed tourist covid metrics from any “recent audit […] actually done of the data.”
Following your debate with @John Fellow is interesting as I am confounded WHY tourist data was intermingled with the covid metrics … there can only be one basic reason:
The govt does NOT want the perception widely held that travel into Bim is a key source of our covid!
However, you and your colleague’s interrogation of this issue has now reached the stage that you or him can pull together from posts and graphs a crisp, scholarly piece for proper public exposure… sans the water hypothesis (still too much missing there).
Good base analysis @John Fellow re how the numbers don’t stack up … it’s amazing what data can show. And when it’s NOT premised on the big lie it actually is always quite intriguing!
Lata
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We may get an idea of breakout of the numbers in isolation coming out of the court case to challenge tomorrow’s election date. The number in isolation is at heart of the challenge.
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@ de pedantic Dribbler who wrote ” The govt does NOT want the perception widely held that travel into Bim is a key source of our covid ”
That was a late cut between 3rd slip and point along the ground for 4. not a man move. lol
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His 1:07 a.m. contribution was quite sound.
However, I am withholding comments until we have the true percentage of red green and yellow balls.
Also, can the behavior between llate December and January be explained tthrough tourist arrivals in that period.
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So the un-vaccinated make the bulk of bajans infected
except for when the total dropped to less than 100sounds like new world order biowarfare to me
remember the arawak indian -
Lyall
and, what happened between 22nd December and 5th January that switched around the contributions of the fully vaccinated and unvaccinated categories?
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Here is my explanation for what it’s worth.
Between 22nd December and 5th January, Barbados was swamped with arrivals for Christmas and new years from countries with conditions causing citizens to flee to warmer climes.
So the flip flop occurs because of the surge in arrivals.
The unvaccinated just got pushed down and the vaccinated got pushed up.
That matches my basic assumption re partially vaccinated.
We are were over the flood induced surge and into double digit cases so the GOB decided to gamble and open the borders.
Once we don’t get any more floods the gamble will work out fine because the two populations are mostly separate.
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lyallsmallJanuary 18, 2022 10:09 AM
John;
It was, as I clearly stated, a TRIAL post to see if I could post images using Imgur. The chart was incomplete re. showing the title of an explicit percentage axis, but a 2 times Barbados Scholar like yourself should have had no difficulty in at least recognizing that the left vertical axis could only represent percentages. The title of the graph “percentages of patients in isolation facilities by vaccination status” says explicitly that the data is explessed in percentages.+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It did trick me initially as the comment I made initially will show so just being honest.
Also, I know it will pull Grasshopper’s chain!!
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Why are the partially vaccinated represented less in the numbers?
Because only a few people are partially vaccinated.
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I suspect that it may just be a data error for the vaccinated and unvaccinated for the December 22 to Jan 5. Someone started partying early and left the janitor to enter the data. He switched the two.
More seriously, this reasoning is based on the fact that the high percentage for the vaccinated during this period is so mar to that of unvaccinated preceding December 22. Similarly the low unvaccinated is similar to the vaccinated of the preceding period.
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@🐇/🐰
You have been looking very good so far. At some stage you will make a desperate break for the waterhole. -
As someone correctly stated, the single dose is mainly those getting the first shot. The relatively flat graph and low percentage show that there is no rush to be vaccinated.
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Visitors are either going to be fully vaccinated or unvaccinated but have survived COVID and reckon vaccination is unnecessary.
They know if they are vaccinated if they catch it it won’t kill them and if they stay in the UK they will catch it and experience horrible weather.
Better to risk overseas travel and get some sunshine.
The half ways are all locals.
Too much of a risk for a visitor.
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Unvaccinated persons are not allowed to board the plane from country of origin.
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Covid – no problem!
We have got to learn to live or die with it.
People die from hunger too.
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Two good ideas and
John picked up a speed wobble…
Next, he will be off the road and down the hole..
Watching an waiting -
Donna you said above:
Question: “Why are the partially vaccinated represented less in the numbers?
Answer; ”Because only a few people are partially vaccinated.”Donna, I would argue: Perhaps, but not necessarily so!
The regular reported daily Covid-19 data indicates that there are consistently more persons who are partially vaccinated than those who are fully vaccinated. People take a first vac and join the ranks of the partially vaccinated and then take 5 months or more before they can get into the fully vaccinated category or decide not to take a second vac at all. Therefore if you take a random sample of the population, I would expect that Fully vaccinated would probably follow Partially Vaccinated and then Unvaccinated brings up the rear.I would like to suggest that the data given in my chart is of a specific population. That population is those people who are sick and are in Official Isolation Centres. At this stage of the epidemic, where the vaccinations have been applied for several months, there should not be a preponderance of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated and a consistent low level of partially vaccinated persons in official isolation as the vaccines which are presumably doing their work adequately, should reflect those facts in the data (Most should be Unvaccinated followed by Partially vaccinated and there should be relatively few fully vaccinated people ). If the partially vaccinated category is in a consistent minority in the 3 categories sampled it might mean that that cohort is outperforming the other categories and there is little positive value in getting fully vaccinated or that more than one shot is actually reducing the effectiveness of the suite of vaccines.
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Oops! made a mistake in the html code above. The second paragraph should not be in bold.
Hants; BIG PROBLEM ? 652 cases ?
Not necessarily. Lets see what happens over the next few days. If it continues going up than we have a big problem. -
@ lyallsmall,
Barbados has limited resources.
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I didn’t look, but I have been told that big vocal crowds were at tonight’s meetings
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HantsJanuary 18, 2022 9:25 PM
BIG PROBLEM ? 652 cases ?
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/18/652-new-covid-cases-monday/
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If we knew the numbers of imported cases we would not be guessing.
Maybe there was a surge of peeps from the UK?
We could tell that from Lyall’s graph.
If a flip flop is in the process of happening again chances are there was a surge of visitor arrivals.
But hiding the numbers creates unnecessary fear in the local population.
Me, I’m proceeding as though it is that we are getting more visitor arrivals.
If I lived in Canada, parts of the USA, Europe or the UK I would be fleeing to warmer climes.
Staying there makes it pretty certain to get COVID … its in the water and all the experts are saying how contagious ohmigod is and can’t fix the problem.
But for the moment, here in Barbados, no floods so a good chance no COVID and numbers in double digits.
If I lived in those areas and friends returned from a visit to the Caribbean having not caught COVID while almost everyone around me who stayed did and froze their asses off, word of mouth would spread that the Caribbean is the place to go to escape both the COVID and the COLD.
So I could argue for a surge of visitors to Barbados from less fortunate places in the world.
Word of mouth and no expert in the world would be able to explain it.
The choice for those in colder climes with rampant COVID is stay put and get COVID and also freeze or go to the Caribbean and have a good chance of escaping COVID and get some warmth in the old bones and sun on the backside.
I would expect a flood of visitors based on that logic which the dimmest of wits in colder climes could figure out.
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CA could be making a bomb!!
Suspect we will be seeing a surge in air travel to the Caribbean.
The visitors who came here in December and early January have returned and are lording it over their more unfortunate friends who stayed put over Christmas, froze their asses off and caught COVID!!
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Maybe not a big problem but a huge opportunity!!
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Hants
How many people you know in Canada near you who caught COVID over Christmas and New Year?
The only people I know of here are some of the younger folks who went partying but seem to be fine now.
Was the season up your side as miserable as I am making it out to be with the Cold and the COVID?
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DavidJanuary 18, 2022 8:56 PM
Unvaccinated persons are not allowed to board the plane from country of origin.
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Simply not true!!
Do your due diligence.
This is sloppy work.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/barbados/entry-requirements
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Ok, we have hundreds of vacation travelers to Barbados prepared to write off 5 days?
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Percentage of patients in isolation
shows a suspect strange switch between vaccinated vs unvaccinated circa 24/12/21 – 10/1/22Daily Covid Cases graph
show this period is when the cases sunk to it’s lowest cica 50-60 and massively started rising again to 500therefore Barbados was deliberately infected in black ops biowarfare like the Arawak Indian
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Should be getting more Brits!!
We should welcome them.
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The Brits are already here in numbers because of cricket.
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… well there you go. Another reason for increase in visitors!!
Meanwhile I notice no one has predicted the outcome of Tong and COVID.
Fact is Tonga has had 1 single case of COVID so I would expect unless it is introduced through the aid efforts there should be no surge after the tsunami induced floods.
Here is one possible method of its introduction.
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Disambiguation Clarification
Black Ops = White Ops in disguise
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COVID boosters do not provide protection against Omicron, study finds – Fortune
https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/
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677 new cases.
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Hants; Figures look bad but today’s 7-day Reproductive no. for Omicron is 1.08, not far from from 1.00 and Official isolations have flattened out, even though total isolations are still climbing. The UWI 3,500 daily cases worst case situation still seems to be unlikely. We need to see if things take a turn for the worse by next week as a result of possible enhanced spread due to the Election meetings.
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lyallsmallJanuary 19, 2022 11:54 PM
Hants; Figures look bad but today’s 7-day Reproductive no. for Omicron is 1.08, not far from from 1.00 and Official isolations have flattened out, even though total isolations are still climbing. The UWI 3,500 daily cases worst case situation still seems to be unlikely. We need to see if things take a turn for the worse by next week as a result of possible enhanced spread due to the Election meetings.
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Visitors returning home and getting their tests 2 days in advance.
Protocol is the positives isolate and are tested again the following day.
Local positives should be <100!!
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/barbados/entry-requirements
Testing positive for / close contact with COVID-19 in Barbados
If you test positive for COVID-19 at any point during your stay in Barbados you will be required to self-isolate. You will first be assessed by a member of staff from the government isolation facilities for 24 hours. You may be transferred to the Government’s quarantine facility, Harrison’s Point, for further assessment and treatment. You can stay there for no cost until you have recovered. Conditions at the government quarantine facilities are generally basic and not necessarily equivalent to a tourist hotel with the associated services.Alternatively, you may be eligible for the Government’s home isolation programme and you have the option of requesting to self-isolate at your hotel, apartment or villa, or government approved isolation property under strict stipulations that must be signed and adhered to. This will be at your own expense. You will need to remain at your designated accommodation until the Barbadian authorities are satisfied that you have recovered. This may mean a mandatory stay of several weeks in Barbados. Upon recovery, tourists can continue their holiday or return home. The option to self-isolate in an approved hotel, villa or property is not a right – the decision will be made by healthcare professionals. See the Barbados Travel Protocols for full details of isolation options, facilities and requirements.
If you are deemed to have been in close contact with a positive COVID-19 case, you will be required to quarantine at approved facilities. See Barbados Travel Protocols for full details.
You can find full and definitive details of the protocols at Visit Barbados website and are advised to read and understand the requirements carefully before departure.
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lyallsmallJanuary 19, 2022 11:54 PM
Hants; Figures look bad but today’s 7-day Reproductive no. for Omicron is 1.08, not far from from 1.00 and Official isolations have flattened out, even though total isolations are still climbing. The UWI 3,500 daily cases worst case situation still seems to be unlikely. We need to see if things take a turn for the worse by next week as a result of possible enhanced spread due to the Election meetings.
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Obviously can’t be the ohmigod variant which is reputedly extremely contagious.
Ohmigod does not seem to spread in Barbados, or Western Australia, or Taiwan etc.
Scientists are FOS!!
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As predicted the Barbados indicator of cases/million is trending to the UK number as UK sources the bulk of its visitors.
Oscillations in Barbados indicator as predicted.
A few days ago the convergence looked like this.
Barring floods in UK and/or Barbados, numbers should trend together.
Oscillations in Barbados numbers seem at the moment to be related to numbers of tests on returning visitors.
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