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BU Covid Dash – Is Omicron Here?

David;  Attached are the charts for the week ending 24th December 2021. The cases and positivity charts are showing slight upticks, perhaps presaging a possible Omicron upsurge in the coming weeks. The vaccination charts are continuing to show the slow growth in vaccine uptake.  The Worldometer charts show a declining trend in deaths.  Reports on…

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David;  Attached are the charts for the week ending 24th December 2021. The cases and positivity charts are showing slight upticks, perhaps presaging a possible Omicron upsurge in the coming weeks. The vaccination charts are continuing to show the slow growth in vaccine uptake.  The Worldometer charts show a declining trend in deaths.  Reports on Omicron suggest that it aggressively outcompetes the other existing variants and that its effects are relatively mild thereby offering a small ray of hope for the future containment of the epidemic.

Source: Lyall Small

 

173 responses to “BU Covid Dash – Is Omicron Here?”

  1. TheOGazerts Avatar
    TheOGazerts

    Sharing a hookah is more than smoking a cigarette. Why do you always move the goal post?

    Please share the link to the WHO part of the statement “Smoking the Hookah is a communal activity with the mouth piece passed from person to person and yet according to WHO, there is no evidence of spread.”

    Give a link that actually support the statement.

    Also… One minute WHO, CDC and FDA are jokers and in the next minute they are cited

  2. John Avatar
    John

    … and if you think about it, Smokers are usually confined to a small area where smoking is allowed but yet the empirical evidence is they don’t spread it among themselves.

    It is only the rare occasion when people shared the same cigarette to which the experts can point.

    That’s why masks, social distancing, lockdowns and sanitizing do not work … we all know that FOR A FACT, irrefutable evidence as wiser heads would often posit

    It is principally spread by an entirely different mechanism …. water

    That’s why BC is exploding, Israel is exploding, Europe is exploding, the UK is exploding Brazil is about to explode ….. etc. etc.

    Ohmigod is not really as infectious as it is made out to be, nor was the delta variant, nor the beta variant and remember the mu variant.

    The virus is vectored into people ‘s homes by their municipal water supplies once they become contaminated.

    Airborne spread against which all the Governments of the world have railed is really not the big issue!!

    They put our money behind a loser and the numbers show they lost!!

    Vaccinations will not halt the spread because the dosages people get through the water swamps any positive effects against spread those vaccinations may have.

    It makes far more sense to develop protocols against waterborne spread and stick to them.

    The protocols against airborne spread are important too, but will not protect you if you live in an area with contaminated water.

    The more this unfolds the more irrefutable that statement becomes.

  3. John Avatar
    John

    TheOGazertsJanuary 2, 2022 9:58 AM

    Sharing a hookah is more than smoking a cigarette. Why do you always move the goal post?

    Please share the link to the WHO part of the statement “Smoking the Hookah is a communal activity with the mouth piece passed from person to person and yet according to WHO, there is no evidence of spread.”

    Give a link that actually support the statement.

    Also… One minute WHO, CDC and FDA are jokers and in the next minute they are cited

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    That’s the point, the experts are not consistent!!

    Here is the link.

    https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/main/2020/12/covid-19-rapid-review-hookah-smoking-transmission.pdf?sc_lang=en#:~:text=While%20no%20reports%20on%20cases,COVID%2D19%20through%20exhaled%20smoke.

  4. John Avatar
    John

    HantsJanuary 1, 2022 7:04 PM

    In Ontario, meanwhile, public health officials reported a staggering 18,445 new cases Saturday, trouncing Friday’s record-setting tally of 16,713 new diagnoses

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    There is no earthly way these numbers can be attributed to not following masking protocols.

    The mia-smic theory of infection spread has been debunked a looooooong time ago.

    It is obvious there is another mechanism spreading the virus.

    I say it is water

  5. John Avatar
    John

    “Secondhand cigarette smoke is known to cause health problems, and although there isn’t yet scientific proof that it can spread the coronavirus and cause COVID-19, at least theoretically it’s a possibility. “Secondhand smoke can propel viruses into the air from the nose and throat,” Galiatsatos says.”

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-smoking-vaping-wildfire-smoke-and-air-pollution#:~:text=Secondhand%20cigarette%20smoke%20is%20known,and%20throat%2C%E2%80%9D%20Galiatsatos%20says.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You would think by now the experts would know.

  6. John Avatar
    John

    … but we know for sure it is present in Sewage and wastewater.

    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/boston-wastewater-covid-spike/2602000/

  7. John Avatar
    John

    … and we know for sure that sewage and wastewater is present in the water to be treated for municipal supply.

  8. John Avatar
    John

    … and for sure we know that fecal coliforms are present in drinking water!!!

  9. John Avatar
    John

    HantsJanuary 1, 2022 7:04 PM

    In Ontario, meanwhile, public health officials reported a staggering 18,445 new cases Saturday, trouncing Friday’s record-setting tally of 16,713 new diagnoses\
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Meanwhile over in Massachusetts

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/29/nation/these-charts-show-how-much-covid-19-is-expected-surge-us-massachusetts-according-projection-models/

    The New England States getting hammered too.

    Does the wind blow East to West or Est to East?

    You think maybe all these states might be getting their water from a common source?

  10. John Avatar
    John

    The media claims the ohmigod strain is the fastest spreading virus in history.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/omicron-the-fastest-spreading-virus-in-history/ar-AASnBW5?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

    It will be interesting to observe its spread or non spread in Barbados!!

    My gut is that it will be a nonevent not only here but in other countries as well.

  11. David Avatar
    David

    Omicron is less severe because it does not infiltrate the lungs

    https://aje.io/hw4x27

  12. John Avatar
    John

    Would be interesting to know if these cases are being add to ours and create an impression of more COVID in Barbdos than there actually is!!

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/01/cruise-ship-with-positive-covid-cases-on-board-spending-new-years-eve-in-barbados-waters/

    Is something similar happening in Grenada?

    https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Grenada_removes_48-hour_quarantine_mandate_for_arriving_passengers

  13. John Avatar
    John

    Uncanny how both Barbados and Grenada see upturns at more or less the same time!!

    Cruise ships with cases perhaps?

    https://imgur.com/a/WGA9q6f

  14. John Avatar
    John

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-freedom-cruise-ship-covid/index.html

  15. John Avatar
    John

    https://abc7chicago.com/cruise-ship-cruises-2022-covid-cases-carnival/11392859/

  16. John Avatar
    John

    Dominica is positively weird.

    https://imgur.com/1zOA8rS

  17. John Avatar
    John

    I thought it was false positives but I more think is an alternative source of COVID cases, probably cruise ships.

    The Government of Dominica (GOD) probably has weighed the situation and decided the risk is worth it.

    Looking at the numbers I can’t disagree with them.

    They are not going out of control despite the fluctuations.

    …. and the trend is down.

  18. David Avatar
    David

    David; You said at 11:48 am on January 1st.
    Sadly you are probably correct although some are suggesting it may be linked to Christmas and Vat free day activities.
    I think there is a distinct possibility of an imminent takeover of the Covid-19 epidemic in Barbados by the Omicron variant based on the following observations:-

    There now appears to be a consensus reporting that Omicron is the most transmissible human virus on record and that, in most countries, its effects are milder than the Delta virus it is replacing.

    Epidemics are all characterized by pathogenic microbes or viruses infecting susceptible hosts by going through a process in the host to produce new pathogens which then infect new susceptible hosts. Epidemics occur when environmental, host and pathogen conditions / factors are suitable for the disease cycle to move from one stage to another. The current factors that are inimical to the growth of the epidemic include an increasing natural population immunity plus an immunity conferred by the vaccinations giving rise to an overall reducing availability to Omicron of enough susceptible hosts to support explosive growth. This may also be partially caused by the population being more frightened of the Omicron variant and following the public health masking, washing and distancing protocols more rigorously.

    I don’t know what the UWI models are predicting but I would guess that they should be predicting maximal cases of 400 ish going down quite precipitately to sub 50 numbers within the next few weeks as Delta cases vanish and Omicron runs out of susceptible hosts.

    Epidemics have certain characteristics that can be used for predictive purposes.
    1) Slight upticks can sometimes be reasonably attributed to small events or conditions that are known to have some influence on disease spread and incidence and don’t generally last for long.
    2) Significant outbreaks can usually be attributed to events like a new aggressive variant taking over territory or a pathogen infecting a large proportion of susceptible inmates at a large institution where people might be able to move around relatively freely or a massive bus crawl type event where superspreaders infect large numbers of people at venues over a wide area. Such institutions might be large shut-in institutions like prisons or nursing homes or even rum shops.
    3) Regulatory and other by Contact tracing teams that are effective in stopping spread.

    The largest Covid-19 outbreaks in Barbados were; the Bus Crawl event of late December 2020 to mid-March 2021; The September 2021 incursion by the Delta variant; and now, what might be the beginning of a current takeover by the Omicron variant, started about 4 weeks ago.

    The attached graphs show a definite NEW wave that started around 18th December with a downturn around 1st January 2022. I suspect that that date probably marks the onset of the Omicron takeover. The Isolation/ Deaths chart indicates a possible reduction in deaths at this time.

    As you stated in your post some are attributing the current wave to gatherings related to the Christmas Season and Vat Free Day Celebrations. The small spike between 27th Nov and 6th Dec might arguably be partially attributable to Republic day activities but the caveat here is that the spike actually started before the large scale Republic Day activities and could not therefore be reasonably attributed to those activities. The small Christmas season spike in a declining Delta variant wave, also started before Christmas and was overtaken by the incoming large Omicron spike.

    John; Check Occam’s razor.

  19. David Avatar
    David

    538 cases

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/04/covid-19-update-538-new-cases/

  20. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    538 people from the 2,383 tests Monday, January 3, 2022

    more tests more cases

  21. David Avatar
    David

    https://www.instagram.com/gisbarbados/p/CYUruj3pGYj/

  22. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    538 people from the 2,383 tests Monday, January 3, 2022

    There were 479 new COVID-19 cases – on Tuesday, January 4, 2022, from the 2 111 tests

  23. John Avatar
    John

    Coming down it seems.

    Good.

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